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Final AP Statistics

Instructor Kairat Mynbaev

Saturday, 18 December 2007: 9:30 to 12:30

Please number all your answer sheets and clearly indicate numbers of questions (subquestions)

you are answering. If you write in a disorderly fashion, I may miss a part of your answer and

then you will lose points!

i. Some people won multi-million dollar prizes in US lotteries. Many of them followed one

of two strategies: (a) select a certain combination of numbers and play it for many years

and (b) play for many years but each time randomly select a new combination of

numbers. Which strategy do you think is better?

2 points

ii. What is the complement of the event: the number of students with the final exam score

higher than 32 is not less than eight?

2 points

iii. Event A is that a resident of Almaty resides to the West of the Seifullin street1. Event B is

that a resident of Almaty is of retirement age. Describe in words the complement of the

union of these two events.

2 points

iv. In the context of the previous question, which probability do you think is higher: P(A|B)

or P(B|A)?

2 points

v. An individual has two insurance policies. One pays the damage if his house is burnt down

to the ground. The probability of this event is 0.001. The other policy pays the damage if

his car suffers a serious accident. The probability of this event is 0.01. If these two events

are independent, what is the probability that none of the two policies will be paid?

2 points

vi. A male student bought flowers for his girlfriend but she broke up with him. It is a

weekday when KBTU is full of students. He decided to roam KBTU and hand the flowers

to the first female student who is either brunette or not brunette but younger than 30 years

old2. What is the probability that some lucky girl gets the flowers?

2 points

vii. I randomly pull four cards out of a standard pack of 36 cards. What is the probability that

all cards are aces?

2 points

viii. A is the event that a student is younger than 18. B is the event that a student is older than

20. Find C such that A, B, C are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.

2 points

ix. Rank the numbers P(A), P(A∩B), P(A∪B).

2 points

x. You know P(A). What additional information do you need to find P(A\B)?

2 points

1

This street divides the city roughly in half.

2

All bachelor students are younger than 30. The number of master students is small relative to bachelors.

1

xi. Describe as prior probability is updated to posterior probability upon arrival of new

information.

2 points

2. Calculate the mode, median, mean and standard deviation for the following values of x:

1 8, 3 , 5, 4 , 6 , 4, 2 , 7.

10 points

3. There are six tickets, three of which are numbered 1, 2, 3 and the other three are labeled 0. If

three tickets are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of drawing a total

of three for the labels?

8 points

4. Your performance in statistics next semester will be determined by two variables: D (diligence)

and L (luck). D has three values: WH (working hard), SS (so-so) and HW (hardly working). L

has two values: OL (out-of-luck) and LG (lucky guy).

a. Put your numerical estimates of probabilities in three tables: one for D, another for L and

a joint probability table.

2 points

b. Find marginal probabilities and write down theoretical relationships they should satisfy.

3 points

c. Suppose your work is evaluated on the scale from 0 to 5. Assign a grade to each cell in

the third table and find your expected grade.

2 points

d. If Luck includes coincidence of instructor’s assignments with the material you studied, do

you think there is dependence between D and L? In general, how do you check that two

variables are (in)dependent?

2 points

5. A corporation was concerned about the basic educational skills of its workers and decided to

offer a selected group of them separate classes in reading and practical mathematics. Of these

workers 40% signed up for the reading classes and 50% for the practical math classes. Of those

signing up for the reading classes 30% signed up for the practical math classes.

a. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker signed up for both classes?

1 points

b. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker who signed up for the math classes

also signed up for the reading classes?

1 points

c. What is the probability that a randomly chosen worker signed up for at least one of these

classes?

1 points

d. Are the events “Signed up for reading classes” and “Signed up for math classes” statistically

independent?

1 points

6. A state has a law requiring motorists to carry insurance. It was estimated that, despite this law,

7.5% of all motorists in the state are uninsured. A random sample of 60 motorists was taken.

a. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to estimate the probability that

at least 3 of the motorists in this sample are uninsured.

3 points

b. Also indicate what calculations would be needed to find this probability exactly if the

Poisson approximation was not used.

3 points

7. Give the definitions and proofs for the following properties of mean values:

a. Linearity and its generalization to the case of n random variables

4 points

b. Additivity

2 points

c. Homogeneity

2

2 points

d. Mean of a constant

2 points

8. Define independent variables and prove the consequences of independence:

a. Multiplicativity of means

3 points

b. Uncorrelatedness

2 points

c. Additivity of variance

2 points

9. Identically distributed random variables

a. How are identically distributed random variables defined? Illustrate with tables

3 points

b. How do you justify the assumption of identical distribution in practice?

2 points

c. What can you say about their means and variances?

2 points

10. Define the binomial random variable and for the case n = 3 derive its distribution. What would

be a general expression for the probability of the binomial variable taking a specific value?

10 points

11. Write brief notes (definition and intuition), on each of the topics below:

a. Correlation

2 points

b. Sample space

2 points

c. Combinations

2 points

d. Joint probability

2 points

12. For each of the following statements indicate of it is true or false, with explanations:

a. A complement of a sure event is an impossible event.

1 points

b. If two events are collectively exhaustive, then their complements are mutually exclusive.

2 points

c. The complement of “None of the students has a grade of B or higher” is “All students have

grades B or higher”.

2 points

d. If V ( X + Y ) < V ( X ) , it must be that V (Y ) < 0 .

2 points

13. A random variable can only take the values 0 and 2. Its variance is 1. Find its mean.

8 points

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