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# Kazakh-British Technical University

## International School of Economics

Final AP Statistics
Instructor Kairat Mynbaev
Saturday, 18 December 2007: 9:30 to 12:30

## Student name ___________________

Please number all your answer sheets and clearly indicate numbers of questions (subquestions)
you are answering. If you write in a disorderly fashion, I may miss a part of your answer and
then you will lose points!

## 1. Answer the following questions with short explanations:

i. Some people won multi-million dollar prizes in US lotteries. Many of them followed one
of two strategies: (a) select a certain combination of numbers and play it for many years
and (b) play for many years but each time randomly select a new combination of
numbers. Which strategy do you think is better?
2 points
ii. What is the complement of the event: the number of students with the final exam score
higher than 32 is not less than eight?
2 points
iii. Event A is that a resident of Almaty resides to the West of the Seifullin street1. Event B is
that a resident of Almaty is of retirement age. Describe in words the complement of the
union of these two events.
2 points
iv. In the context of the previous question, which probability do you think is higher: P(A|B)
or P(B|A)?
2 points
v. An individual has two insurance policies. One pays the damage if his house is burnt down
to the ground. The probability of this event is 0.001. The other policy pays the damage if
his car suffers a serious accident. The probability of this event is 0.01. If these two events
are independent, what is the probability that none of the two policies will be paid?
2 points
vi. A male student bought flowers for his girlfriend but she broke up with him. It is a
weekday when KBTU is full of students. He decided to roam KBTU and hand the flowers
to the first female student who is either brunette or not brunette but younger than 30 years
old2. What is the probability that some lucky girl gets the flowers?
2 points
vii. I randomly pull four cards out of a standard pack of 36 cards. What is the probability that
all cards are aces?
2 points
viii. A is the event that a student is younger than 18. B is the event that a student is older than
20. Find C such that A, B, C are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
2 points
ix. Rank the numbers P(A), P(A∩B), P(A∪B).
2 points
x. You know P(A). What additional information do you need to find P(A\B)?
2 points

1
This street divides the city roughly in half.
2
All bachelor students are younger than 30. The number of master students is small relative to bachelors.
1
xi. Describe as prior probability is updated to posterior probability upon arrival of new
information.
2 points
2. Calculate the mode, median, mean and standard deviation for the following values of x:
1 8, 3 , 5, 4 , 6 , 4, 2 , 7.
10 points
3. There are six tickets, three of which are numbered 1, 2, 3 and the other three are labeled 0. If
three tickets are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of drawing a total
of three for the labels?
8 points
4. Your performance in statistics next semester will be determined by two variables: D (diligence)
and L (luck). D has three values: WH (working hard), SS (so-so) and HW (hardly working). L
has two values: OL (out-of-luck) and LG (lucky guy).
a. Put your numerical estimates of probabilities in three tables: one for D, another for L and
a joint probability table.
2 points
b. Find marginal probabilities and write down theoretical relationships they should satisfy.
3 points
c. Suppose your work is evaluated on the scale from 0 to 5. Assign a grade to each cell in
the third table and find your expected grade.
2 points
d. If Luck includes coincidence of instructor’s assignments with the material you studied, do
you think there is dependence between D and L? In general, how do you check that two
variables are (in)dependent?
2 points
5. A corporation was concerned about the basic educational skills of its workers and decided to
offer a selected group of them separate classes in reading and practical mathematics. Of these
workers 40% signed up for the reading classes and 50% for the practical math classes. Of those
signing up for the reading classes 30% signed up for the practical math classes.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker signed up for both classes?
1 points
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker who signed up for the math classes
also signed up for the reading classes?
1 points
c. What is the probability that a randomly chosen worker signed up for at least one of these
classes?
1 points
d. Are the events “Signed up for reading classes” and “Signed up for math classes” statistically
independent?
1 points
6. A state has a law requiring motorists to carry insurance. It was estimated that, despite this law,
7.5% of all motorists in the state are uninsured. A random sample of 60 motorists was taken.
a. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to estimate the probability that
at least 3 of the motorists in this sample are uninsured.
3 points
b. Also indicate what calculations would be needed to find this probability exactly if the
Poisson approximation was not used.
3 points
7. Give the definitions and proofs for the following properties of mean values:
a. Linearity and its generalization to the case of n random variables
4 points
b. Additivity
2 points
c. Homogeneity

2
2 points
d. Mean of a constant
2 points
8. Define independent variables and prove the consequences of independence:
a. Multiplicativity of means
3 points
b. Uncorrelatedness
2 points
c. Additivity of variance
2 points
9. Identically distributed random variables
a. How are identically distributed random variables defined? Illustrate with tables
3 points
b. How do you justify the assumption of identical distribution in practice?
2 points
c. What can you say about their means and variances?
2 points
10. Define the binomial random variable and for the case n = 3 derive its distribution. What would
be a general expression for the probability of the binomial variable taking a specific value?
10 points
11. Write brief notes (definition and intuition), on each of the topics below:
a. Correlation
2 points
b. Sample space
2 points
c. Combinations
2 points
d. Joint probability
2 points
12. For each of the following statements indicate of it is true or false, with explanations:
a. A complement of a sure event is an impossible event.
1 points
b. If two events are collectively exhaustive, then their complements are mutually exclusive.
2 points
c. The complement of “None of the students has a grade of B or higher” is “All students have
grades B or higher”.
2 points
d. If V ( X + Y ) < V ( X ) , it must be that V (Y ) < 0 .
2 points
13. A random variable can only take the values 0 and 2. Its variance is 1. Find its mean.
8 points