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LOW CARBON
ECONOMY
PAPER 1: Renewing Our Ambitions
DRIVING THE
LOW CARBON
ECONOMY
Introduction
Across the world, policy makers are wrestling with three major
challenges: reviving economic growth, reducing carbon emissions
“Climate change and securing energy supplies. Increasingly, renewable energy is being
recognised as a key part of the answer to not just one or two of these
and energy security questions, but to all of them.
are two of the
For these reasons, European, UK and Scottish governments have set
key challenges stretching targets for the percentage of energy met by renewable sources by
facing humankind. 2020. These have in turn driven the development of a legislative, regulatory
Renewable energies and fiscal framework to encourage investment in all forms of renewables.
are the key for With the strongest wind, wave and tidal resources in Europe, Scotland has
led the way, with the current Holyrood administration setting ambitious
the solution of targets for 50 per cent of electricity consumption and 20 per cent of all
both problems as primary energy use to be met by renewables by 2020.
they are carbon These objectives were dismissed as unachievable and unworkable at the
free, abundant and time, but the growth of onshore wind looks set to power us to the interim
sustainable.” objective of 31 per cent of electricity consumption by 2011, and to meet the
lion’s share of progress towards our 2020 target.
Prof. Peter Höpper
In addition, over the last three years Scotland’s renewable energy sector has
Head of GeoRisks Research
Corporate Climate Change Centre declared a new scale of ambition, with announcements of:
Defining the
Potential
To assess the potential impact of these plans on the balance of supply and demand, Scottish Renewables
commissioned the modelling of four scenarios for electricity supply and demand in 2020, looking at the impact of
different patterns of development and use.
The results are set out below: (all figures and tables from Renewable Energy Scenarios for Scotland in 2020, Garrad
Hassan (2010)).
Wave
60000
20000 Wave
20000 Wave
Energy (GWh)
Energy from Waste
50000
40000 Biomass
Capacity (MW)
Capacity (MW)
20000
Biomass Biomass
Wind Onshore
10000
Nuclear
5000 Wind Onshore
5000 Wind Onshore
Other Thermal
Hydro Hydro
Thermal
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
In both scenarios there is a clear increase in installed generation capacity from current level of around 12GW to more
Other Thermal Other Thermal
than 20GW.
Energy (GWh)
40000 Biomass
Energy from Waste Energy from Waste
50000
60000 30000
Wind Offshore
20000
40000 Biomass Biomass
Wind Onshore
10000
40000 Hydro
30000
Wind Offshore 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wind Offshore
Pumped storage
20000
Wind Onshore
20000 Wind
Nuclear Onshore
10000
Other Thermal
Hydro Hydro
0 0 Thermal
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
The Balance
of Power
By combining the two scenarios for generation with the two scenarios for
demand, four scenarios are developed for 2020.
Total electricity production 74,910 GWh 82,203 GWh 74,910 GWh 83,203 GWh
Fossil, nuclear and pumped storage
39,368 GWh (53%) 36,784 GWh (44%) 39,368 GWh (53%) 36,784 GWh (44%)
production
Renewables production 35,542 GWh (47 %) 46,419 GWh (56%) 35,542 GWh (47 %) 46,419 GWh (56%)
Gross consumption 43,815 GWh 43,815 GWh 37,876 GWh 37,876 GWh
Net export 31,095 GWh 39,388 GWh 37,034 GWh 45,327 GWh
Table 1. Scenarios for Supply and These show clearly that Scotland can go much further in releasing our
Demand in Scotland 2020
potential, with even the most pessimistic scenario of low renewables
growth and increasing demand for electricity, Scotland can meet and
go beyond the 50 per cent target.
Under each generation scenario, Scotland will contribute more than 50 per
cent of the total capacity necessary for the UK to meet its 2020 target of
15 per cent renewables by 2020. Strengthened grid connections between
regions and nations will carry de-carbonised electricity to the rest of the
UK when renewables output is high, and secure peak supplies to Scotland
when output is low – and move us closer to greater inter-connectivity with
the rest of Europe.
of ambition for • effective and efficient consenting regimes that balance the need
the proportion of for renewable energy development with other interests
electricity demand • delivery of new grid connections and upgrades to carry power
from where it is generated to where it is consumed
met from renewable
sources.” • introduction of a modern grid charging framework that recognises
our increasing inter-dependence and the need to incentivise
generation where our strongest renewable resources are located
conclusion
Scotland’s renewable energy industry has grown massively over the last
few years, putting us well on track to meet our 2020 targets. This paper
shows that Scotland could go well beyond our current electricity target
of 50 per cent, and that it is now time for a new level of ambition for the
proportion of electricity demand met from renewable sources.