Abhishek Saraff-05-Stock Futures On Spot Market Volatility

“Impact of Stock Futures on Spot Market Volatility: A Study on Nifty”
A Dissertation Report On
“Impact of Stock Futures on Spot Market
Volatility: A study on Nifty”

Submitted in partial fulfillment of requirement for the award of
the degree of Master of Business Administration of Bangalore
University

By
ABHISHEK. C SARAFF
Reg. No: 05XQCM6004
Under the Guidance and Supervision Of
Dr. NAGESH. S MALAVALLI

M.P.BIRLA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
Associate Bharathiya Vidya Bhavan
#43, Race Course Road, BANGALORE‐560001

2005-2007
M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this dissertation entitled “IMPACT OF

STOCK FUTURE VOLATILITY ON SPOT MARKET: A STUDY
ON NIFTY” is the result of my own research work carried out under
the guidance and supervision of Dr. Nagesh S. Malavalli, M P Birla
Institute of Management Bangalore.
I also declare that this dissertation has not been submitted

earlier to any Institute/organization for the award of any degree or
diploma.
Place: Bangalore
Date: Abhishek Saraff

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CERTIFICATE
I hereby certify that this dissertation entitled “IMPACT OF

ON NIFTY” is the result of research work carried out by Mr.
ABHISHEK SARAFF bearing Reg No: 05XQCM6004 under the
guidance of DR. NAGESH S. MALAVALLI, M P Birla Institute of
Management, Bangalore.
Place: Bangalore Dr N.S.

Malavalli
Date: PRINCIPAL

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GUIDE CERTIFICATE
I hereby certify that this dissertation entitled “IMPACT OF

ON NIFTY” is an offshoot of the research carried out by Mr.
ABHISHEK SARAFF Reg No: 05XQCM6004 UNDER my guidance
and supervision.
Place: Bangalore
Date: Dr N.S. Malavalli

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my research guide

DR. NAGESH S. MALAVALLI, Principal, M.P.Birla Institute of
Management, Bangalore for his constant encouragement and guidance
in the course of the research investigation.
I would like to thank DR. T.V. NARSHIMA RAO, Adjunct

Faculty, M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore for his
constant guidance and timely support in the course of the research.
I would also like to thank PROF. S. SANTHANAM, Adjunct

Faculty, M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore who helped
me to analysis data with his expertise knowledge in statistics.
And further I would like to thank all the faculty members of

MPBIM who have helped me in completing my project. I have gained
a lot of knowledge throughout the course of carrying out this project.
I would like to sincerely thank my Parents and all my Friends

who have helped me in completing this project by providing me with
the psychological and academic support.

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ABHISHEK SARAFF
CHAPTERS PARTICULARS PAGE NO

Abstract 1
1 Introduction
1.1 Background of the study 2
1.2 Dervivatives at NSE 2
1.3 Trading Mechanism 3
1.4 Importance of the study 3
2 Literature Review
2.1 survey of empirical literature 5-18
3 Research Methodology
3.1 Research problem statement 19
3.2 Scope of the study 19
3.3 Objective of the study 19
3.4 Data 20
3.5 Hypothesis of study 20
3.6 Statistical Procedure 21-23
3.7 Actual collection of data 23
3.8 Tools used for testing hypothesis 23
3.9 Sources of secondary data 24
3.10 Softwares used for data analysis 24
4 Data Analysis & Interpretation
4.1 Empirical Results 25
4.2 Presentations of data 26-62
4.3 Interpretation 63
5 Conclusion 64
6 Bibliography 65

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ABSTRACT:
The paper examines the impact of stock futures on spot market volatility, i.e.,
Nifty. There are two contradicting schools of thoughts with regards to this: one,
which advocates that the derivatives product has impact on spot market volatility,
while the other, which apposes this. Ever since the introduction of stock futures in
various market all over the world, numerous studies have been carried out upon
the effects of futures listing on underlying cash market volatility.
In India, stock futures trading were started by the National Stock Exchange
with a view to bring stability in the market for commodities and to keep a check
on the spiraling prices of shares. The underlying research work aims at finding out
impact of stock futures on the spot market volatility or whether after introduction
of stock futures have fluctuated drastically compared to before the introduction of
stock futures.
For the purpose of determining the above, the spot prices two years prior
the introduction of futures and two year prices after introduction of futures were
obtained from the National Stock Exchange website. The log natural was
calculated on the collected data and subsequently Augmented Dickey Fuller Test
of Stationarity was used to conduct the test of stationarity on the calculated log
natural. Subsequently standard deviations prior and after the introduction of
futures was calculated and the values were subjected to an F-test. Based on the
results of the above we were able to conclude that there is no impact of stock
futures on the volatility of spot market (CNX Nifty).
Also during the course of the literature review various information about
the stock futures were identified i.e. advantages of futures trading, trading, history
of futures trading, technical terminologies and about National Stock exchanges
was learnt during the course of review of the literature.

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Chapter-1
1.1 Background of the Study:
The Indian capital market has witnessed radical changes, especially during the last
decade. Having discarded the age old practices like open outcry trading system,
physical form of shares and new settlement procedure, and others, the markets are
now operating with world class practices and products. The reforms in the capital
markets have helped to improve efficiency in many aspects namely, the
dissemination of information, transparency in operations, prohibiting unfair trade
practices.
The most certain thing about the markets is uncertainty, which leads to
risk. One such risk is financial risk, due to the changes in stock market prices. To
manage such risks, financial instruments, known as financial derivatives, have
been developed and introduced into the Indian capital markets as well as across
the globe, over a period of time. Based on the recommendations of L.C. Gupta
Committee, SEBI permitted the stock exchanges viz., BSE and NSE in India to
introduce financial derivatives in June 2000. The first product was futures on
indices followed by options on indices, individual stock options and futures.
The term derivative implies that it has no independent value. Its value is
derived from the value of the other asset. According to the L.C. Gupta
Committee’s Report, derivatives means a forward future or option contract for a
predetermined fixed duration, linked for the purpose of contract fulfillment to
value of specified real or financial asset or to an index security.
1.2 Derivatives market at NSE:

The derivatives trading on the exchange commenced with S&P CNX Nifty Index
futures on June 12, 2000. The trading in index options commenced on June 4,
2001 and trading in options on individual securities commenced on July 2, 2001.
Single stock futures were launched on November 9, 2001. The index futures and
options contract on NSE are based on S&P CNX Nifty Index. Currently, the
futures contracts have a maximum of 3-month expiration cycles. Three contracts
are available for trading, with 1 month, 2 months and 3 months expiry. A new

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contract is introduced on the next trading day following the expiry of the near
month contract.
1.3 Trading mechanism:

The futures and options trading system of NSE, called NEAT-F&O trading
system, provides a fully automated screen–based trading for Nifty futures &
options and stock futures & options on a nationwide basis and an online
monitoring and surveillance mechanism. It supports an anonymous order driven
market which provides complete transparency of trading operations and operates
on strict price–time priority. It is similar to that of trading of equities in the Cash
Market(CM) segment. The NEAT-F&O trading system is accessed by two types
of users. The Trading Members(TM) have access to functions such as order entry,
order matching, order and trade management. It provides tremendous flexibility to
users in terms of kinds of orders that can be placed on the system. Various
conditions like Good-till-Day, Good-till-Cancelled, Goodtill- Date, Immediate or
Cancel, Limit/Market price, Stop loss, etc. can be built into an order. The Clearing
Members(CM) use the trader workstation for the purpose of monitoring the
trading member(s) for whom they clear the trades. Additionally, they can enter
and set limits to positions, which a trading member can take.
1.4 Importance of the study:
The impact of derivatives on the cash market volatility is a much debated and
widely studied research topic. Ever since the Chicago Board of Trade introduced
the commodity futures in 1865, various markets have been studied at different
time periods. The concern over how trading in index futures and options affect the
spot market has been an interesting subject for investors, academicians, regulators
and exchanges. Financial derivatives were introduced in India, mainly as a risk
management tool for both institutional and retail investors. The two main
functions of derivative market are: Price discovery and hedging. The available
literature offers two different kinds of arguments. Some authors like Gupta and
Kumar, Golaka C Nath found that the overall volatility of the underlying stock
market was reduced after introduction of derivative contracts on indices in India.
The other side of the argument is that the volatility of the spot market could

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increase with the derivatives products because of speculation and arbitrage

strategies.
The results of this study are crucial to investors, stock exchange officials
and regulators. Derivatives play a very important role in the price discovery
process and in completing the market. Their role in risk management for
institutional investors and mutual fund managers need hardly be overemphasized.
This role as a tool for risk management clearly assumes that derivatives trading do
not increase market volatility and risk. The results of this study will throw some
light on the effects of derivative introduction on the efficiency and volatility of the
underlying cash markets.
The present paper attempts to study the impact of introduction of stock

futures on the underlying spot market volatility i.e., Nifty.

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Chapter-2
SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE:
The introduction of equity index futures markets enables traders to transact large
volumes at much lower transaction costs relative to the cash market. The
consequence of this increase in order flow to futures markets is unresolved on
both a theoretical and an empirical front. Stein (1987) develops a model in which
prices are determined by the interaction between hedgers and informed
speculators. In this model, opening a futures market has two effects; (1). The
futures market improves risk sharing and therefore reduces price volatility, and
(2). If the speculators observe a noisy but informative signal, the hedgers react to
the noise in the speculative trades, producing an increase in volatility.
In contrast, models developed by Danthine (1978) argue that the futures

markets improve market depth and reduce volatility because the cost to informed
traders of responding to mis-pricing is reduced. Froot and Perold (1991) extend
Kyle’s(1985) model to show that market depth is increased by more rapid
dissemination of market-wide information and the presence of market makers in
the futures market in addition to the cash market. Ross (1989) assumes that there
exists an economy that is devoid of arbitrage and proceeds to provide a condition
under which the no-arbitrage situation will be sustained. It implies that the
variance of the price change will be equal to the rate of information flow. The
implication of this is that the volatility of the asset price will increase as the rate of
information flow increases. Thus, if futures increase the flow of information, than
in the absence of arbitrage opportunity, the volatility of the spot price must
change. Overall, the theoretical work on futures listing effects offer no consensus
on the size and the direction of the change in volatility. We therefore need to turn
to the empirical literature on evidence relating to the volatility effects of listing
index futures, index options, stock futures and stock option.

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BEHAVIOUR OF STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AFTER

DERIVATIVES
Golaka C Nath
INTRODUCTION
The introduction of equity and equity index derivative contracts in Indian market
has not been very old but today the total notional trading values in derivatives
contracts are much ahead of cash market. On many occasions, the derivatives
notional trading values are double the cash market trading values. Given such
dramatic changes, we would like to study the behavior of volatility in cash market
after the introduction of derivatives. Impact of derivatives trading on the volatility
of the cash market in India has been studied by Thenmozhi (2002),
Shenbagaraman (2003), Gupta and Kumar (2002) . Gupta and Kumar (2002) did
find that the overall volatility of underlying market declined after introduction of
derivatives contracts on indices. Thenmozhi (2002) reported lower level volatility
in cash market after introduction of derivative contracts. Shenbagaraman (2003)
reported that there was no significant fall in cash market volatility due to
introduction of derivatives contracts in Indian market. Raju and Karande (2003)
reported a decline in volatility of the cash market after derivatives introduction in
Indian market. All these studies have been done using the market index and not
individual stocks. These studies were conducted using data for a smaller period
and when the notional trading volume in the market was not significant and before
tremendous success of futures on individual stocks. Today derivatives market in
India is more successful and we have more than 3 years of derivatives market.
Hence the present study would use the longer period of data to study the behavior
of volatility in the market after derivatives was introduced. The study would use
indices as well as individual stocks for analysis.
METHODOLOGY
This study uses the daily stock market data from January 1999 (for IGARCH data
used is from January 1998) to October 2003. Thus the daily returns are calculated
using the following equation:

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Where Rt is the daily return, Pt is the value of the security on day t and Pt-1 is the
value of the security on day t-1.
Standard deviation of returns is calculated using the following methods:
Where R is the average return over the period. This study calculates the rolling
standard deviation for 1 year window as well as for a 6 month window to capture
the conditional dynamics. Next volatility is calculated using Risk Metrics method
with l = 0.94 (IGARCH) and the initial volatility was computed using one year
data from January 1998 to December 1998. Then we have used a GARCH model
to estimate the daily volatility. In the linear ARCH (q) model originally
introduced by Engle (1982), the conditional variance ht is postulated to be a linear
function of the past q squared innovations.
In empirical applications of ARCH (q) models a long lag length and a large
number of parameters are often called for. An alternative and more flexible lag
structure is often provided by the generalized ARCH, or GARCH (p, q) model
proposed independently by Bollerslev (1986) and Taylor (1986). In many
applications especially with daily frequency financial data the estimate for a1 +a2
+ ... +aq + b1 + b2 + ... + b p turns out to be very close to unity. Engle and
Bollerslev (1986) were the first to consider GARCH processes with a1 + a2 + ...
+a q + b1 + b2 + ... + b p = 1 as a distinct class of models, which they termed
integrated GARCH (IGARCH). In the IGARCH class of models a shock to the
conditional variance is persistent in the sense that it remains important for future
forecasts of all horizons.

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DATA and DATA CHARACTERISTICS
The study uses two benchmark indices: S&P CNX NIFTY and S&P CNX NIFTY
JUNIOR along with selected few stocks for studying the volatility behavior during
the period January 1999 to October 2003. 20 stocks have been considered a from
the NIFTY and Junior NIFTY category. Out of the 20 stocks, 13 have single stock
futures and options while 7 do not have the same. Futures and options are
available on S&P CNX NIFTY but not on S&P CNX NIFTY Junior.
CONCLUSION
The paper studies the behavior of volatility in equity market in pre and post
derivatives period in India using static and conditional variance. Conditional
volatility has been modeled using four different method: GARCH(1,1), IGARCH
with l = 0.94, one year rolling window of standard deviation and a 6 month rolling
standard deviation. We have considered 20 stocks randomly from the NIFTY and
Junior NIFTY basket as well as benchmark indices itself. Also static point
volatility analysis has been used dividing the period under study among various
time buckets and justified the creation of such time buckets. While studying
conditional volatility it is observed that for most of the stocks, the volatility has
come down in the post derivative period while for only few stocks in the sample
(details are in Annexure II and III) the volatility in the post derivatives has either
remained more or less same or has increased marginally. All these methods
suggested that the volatility of the market as measured by benchmark indices like
S&P CNX NIFTY and S&P CNX NIFTY JUNIOR have fallen after in the post
derivatives period.
The finding is in line with the earlier findings of Thenmozhi (2002),
Shenbagaraman (2003), Gupta and Kumar (2002) and Raju and Karande (2003).
The earlier studies used shorter period of data and pre single stock futures and
options period data while we have used data for a longer period that has taken into
account various cyclical trends into consideration.

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EFFECT OF INTRODUCTION OF INDEX FUTURES ON

STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY: THE INDIAN EVIDENCE
O.P. Gupta
INTRODUCTION
The Indian capital market has witnessed a major transformation and structural
change during the past one decade or so as a result of on going financial sector
reforms initiated by the Government of India since 1991 in the wake of policies of
liberalization and globalization. The major objectives of these reforms have been
to improve market efficiency, enhancing transparency, checking unfair trade
practices, and bringing the Indian capital market up to international standards. As
a result of the reforms several changes have also taken place in the operations of
the secondary markets such as automated on-line trading in exchanges enabling
trading terminals of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock
Exchange (BSE) to be available across the country and making geographical
location of an exchange irrelevant; reduction in the settlement period, opening of
the stock markets to foreign portfolio investors etc. In addition to these
developments, India is perhaps one of the real emerging markets in South Asian
region that has introduced derivative products on two of its principal existing
exchanges viz., BSE and NSE in June 2000 to provide tools for risk management
to investors. There had, however, been a considerable debate on the question of
whether derivatives should be introduced in India or not. The L.C. Gupta
Committee on Derivatives, which examined the whole issue in details, had
recommended in December 1997 the introduction of stock index futures in the
first place (1). The preparation of regulatory framework for the operations of the
index futures contracts took another two and a half-year more as it required not
only an amendment in the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 but also the
specification of the regulations for such contracts. Finally, the Indian capital
market saw the launching of index futures on June 9, 2000 on BSE and on June
12, 2000 on the NSE. A year later options on index were also introduced for
trading on these exchanges. Later, stock options on individual stocks were
launched in July 2001. The latest product to enter in to the derivative segment on
these exchanges is contracts on stock futures in November 2001. Thus, with the
launch of stock futures, the basic range of equity derivative products in India

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seems to be complete day volatility. It has been estimated by using Parkinson’s

[1980] extreme value estimator, which is considered to be more efficient.
The Data
The data employed in the study consists of daily prices of two major stock market
indices viz., the S&P CNX Nifty Index (henceforth Nifty Index) and the BSE
Sensex (BSE Index) for a four year period from June 8, 1998 to June 30, 2002.
For each of these indices four sets of prices were used. These were daily high,
low, open, and close prices. Likewise, daily high, low, open, and close prices were
used from June 9, 2000 to March 31, 2002 for the BSE Index Futures (7) and from
June 12, 2000 to June 30, 2001 for the Nifty Index Futures. The necessary data
have from collected from the Derivative Segments of both of these exchanges.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper has been aimed at examining the impact of index futures introduction
on stock market volatility. Further, it has also examined the relative volatility of
spot market and futures market. The study utilized daily price data (high, low,
open and close) for BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty Index from June 1998 to
June 2002. Similar data from June 9, 2000 to March 31, 2002 have also been used
for BSE Index Futures and from June 12, 2000 to June 30, 2002 for the Nifty
Index Futures. The study has used four measures of volatility: (a) the first is based
upon close-to-close prices, (b) the second is based upon open-to-open prices, (c)
the third is Parkinson’s Extreme Value Estimator, and (d) the fourth is Garman-
Klass measure volatility (GKV).
The empirical results reported here indicate that the over-all volatility of the
underlying stock market has declined after the introduction of index futures on
both the indices in terms of all the three measures i.e. ln (Ct/Ct-1) ln (Ot/Ot-1) and
ln (Ht/Lt). It must, however, be noted that since the introduction of index futures
the Indian stock market has witnessed several changes in its market micro-
structure such as the abolition of the traditional `badla system, reduction in the
trading cycle etc. Therefore, these results should be interpreted in the light of
these changes. However, there is no conclusive evidence, which suggests that, the

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futures volatility is higher (lower) in comparison to the underlying stock market

for both the indices in terms of all the four measures of volatility. In fact, there is
some evidence that the futures volatility is lower in some months in comparison to
the underlying stock market for both of these indices. These results are in contrast
to those reported for the other emerging markets. The study, being first in the
Indian context, has several policy implications for regulators, policy makers, and
investors.

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DO FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING INCREASE STOCK

MARKET VOLATILITY?
Dr. Premalata Shenbagaraman
INTRODUCTION
In the last decade, many emerging and transition economies have started
introducing derivative contracts. As was the case when commodity futures were
first introduced on the Chicago Board of Trade in 1865, policymakers and
regulators in these markets are concerned about the impact of futures on the
underlying cash market. One of the reasons for this concern is the belief that
futures trading attract speculators who then destabilize spot prices. This concern is
evident in the following excerpt from an article by John Stuart Mill (1871):
“The safety and cheapness of communications, which enable a deficiency

in one place to be, supplied from the surplus of another render the fluctuations of
prices much less extreme than formerly. This effect is much promoted by the
existence of speculative merchant. Speculators, therefore, have a highly useful
office in the economy of society”.
Since futures encourage speculation, the debate on the impact of speculators

intensified when futures contracts were first introduced for trading; beginning
with commodity futures and moving on to financial futures and recently futures on
weather and electricity. However, this traditional favorable view towards the
economic benefits of speculative activity has not always been acceptable to
regulators. For example, futures trading were blamed by some for the stock
market crash of 1987 in the USA, thereby warranting more regulation. However
before further regulation in introduced, it is essential to determine whether in fact
there is a causal link between the introduction of futures and spot market
volatility. It therefore becomes imperative that we seek answers to questions like:
What is the impact of derivatives upon market efficiency and liquidity of the
underlying cash market? To what extent do derivatives destabilize the financial
system, and how should these risks be addressed? Can the results from studies of
developed markets be extended to emerging markets?

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This paper seeks to contribute to the existing literature in many ways. This is the
first study to examine the impact of financial derivatives introduction on cash
market volatility in an emerging market, India. Further, this study improves upon
the methodology used in prior studies by using a framework that allows for
generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) i.e., it
explicitly models the volatility process over time, rather than using estimated
standard deviations to measure volatility. This estimation technique enables us to
explore the link between information/news arrival in the market and its effect on
cash market volatility. The study also looks at the linkages in ongoing trading
activity in the futures market with the underlying spot market volatility by
decomposing trading volume and open interest into an expected component and
an unexpected (surprise) component. Finally this is the first study to our
knowledge that looks at the effects of both stock index futures introduction as well
as stock index options introduction on the underlying cash market volatility. The
results of this study are crucial to investors, stock exchange officials and
regulators. Derivatives play a very important role in the price discovery process
and in completing the market. Their role in risk management for institutional
investors and mutual fund managers need hardly be overemphasized. This role as
a tool for risk management clearly assumes that derivatives trading do not increase
market volatility and risk. The results of this study will throw some light on the
effects of derivative introduction on the efficiency and volatility of the underlying
cash markets.
METHODOLOGY
One of the key assumptions of the ordinary regression model is that the errors
have the same variance throughout the sample. This is also called the
homoskedasticity model. If the error variance is not constant, the data are said to
be heteroskedastic. Since ordinary least-squares regression assumes constant error
variance, heteroskedasticity causes the OLS estimates to be inefficient. Models
that take into account the changing variance can make more efficient use of the
data. There are several approaches to dealing with heteroskedasticity. If the error
variance at different times is known, weighted regression is a good method. If, as
is usually the case, the error variance is unknown and must be estimated from the

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data, one can model the changing error variance. In the past, studies of volatility
have used constructed volatility measures like estimated standard deviations,
rolling standard deviations, etc, to discern the effect of futures introduction. These
studies implicitly assume that price changes in spot markets are serially
uncorrelated and homoskedastic. However, findings of heteroskedasticity in stock
returns are well documented (Mandelbrot 1963), Fama (1965), Bollerslev (1986).
Thus the observed differences in variances from models assuming
homoskedasticity may simply be due to the effect of return dependence and not
necessarily due to futures introduction. The GARCH model assumes conditional
heteroscedasticity, with homoskedastic unconditional error variance. That is, the
model assumes that the changes in variance are a function of the realizations of
preceding errors and that these changes represent temporary and random
departures from a constant unconditional variance, as might be the case when
using daily data. The advantage of a GARCH model is that it captures the
tendency in financial data for volatility clustering. It therefore enables us to make
the connection between information and volatility explicit, since any change in the
rate of information arrival to the market will change the volatility in the market.
Thus, unless information remains constant, which is hardly the case, volatility
must be time varying, even on a daily basis.
The impact of stock index futures and option contract introduction in the Indian
market is examined using a unvaried GARCH (1, 1) model. The time series of
daily returns on the S&P CNX Nifty Index is modeled as a univariate GARCH
process. Following Pagan and Schwert (1990) and Engle and Ng (1993), we need
to remove from the time series any predictability associated with lagged world
returns and/or day of the week effects. Further, it is required to control for the
effect of market wide factors, since one is interested in isolating the unique impact
of the introduction of the futures/options contracts. Fortunately for the Indian
stock market there is an index, the Nifty Junior, which comprises stocks for which
no futures contracts are traded. As such, it serves as a perfect control variable for
us to isolate market wide factors and thereby concentrate on the residual volatility
in the Nifty as a direct result of the introduction of the index derivative contracts.
Therefore the study introduces the return on the Nifty Junior index as an
additional independent variable

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CONCLUSION
In this study one has examined the effects of the introduction of the Nifty futures
and options contracts on the underlying spot market volatility using a model that
captures the heteroskedasticity in returns that characterize stock market returns.
The results indicate that derivatives introduction has had no significant impact on
spot market volatility. This result is robust to different model specifications.
However, futures introduction seems to have changed the sensitivity of nifty
returns to the S&P500 returns. Also, the day-of-the week effects seem to have
dissipated after futures introduction.
Later the model is estimated separately for the pre and post futures period and
finds that the nature of the GARCH process has changed after the introduction of
the futures trading. Pre-futures, the effect of information was persistent over time,
i.e. a shock to today’s volatility due to some information that arrived in the market
today, has an effect on tomorrow’s volatility and the volatility for days to come.
After futures contracts started trading the persistence has disappeared. Thus any
shock to volatility today has no effect on tomorrow’s volatility or on volatility in
the future. This might suggest increased market efficiency, since all information is
incorporated into prices immediately.
Next, using a procedure inspired by Bessembinder and Sequin (1992), it is found
that after the introduction of futures trading, one is unable to pick up any link
between the volume of futures contracts traded and the volatility in the spot
market.

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Impact of Financial Derivative Products on Spot Market

Volatility: A Study on Nifty
S V Ramana Rao
Introduction
The Indian capital market has witnessed radical changes, especially during the last
decade. Having discarded the age old practices like open outcry trading system,
physical form of shares and new settlement procedure, and others, the markets are
now operating with world class practices and products. The reforms in the capital
markets have helped to improve efficiency in many aspects namely, the
dissemination of information, transparency in operations, prohibiting unfair trade
practices.
The most certain thing about the markets is uncertainty, which leads to
risk. One such risk is financial risk, due to the changes in stock market prices. To
manage such risks, financial instruments, known as financial derivatives, have
been developed and introduced into the Indian capital markets as well as across
the globe, over a period of time. Based on the recommendations of L.C. Gupta
Committee, SEBI permitted the stock exchanges viz., BSF and NSE in India to
introduce financial derivatives in June 2000. The first product was futures on
indices followed by options on indices, individual stock options and futures.
The term derivative implies that it has no independent value. Its value is
derived from the value of the other asset. According to the L.C. Gupta
Committee’s Report, derivatives means a forward future or option contract for a
predetermined fixed duration, linked for the purpose of contract fulfillment to
value of specified real or financial asset or to an index security.
The impact of derivatives on the cash market volatility is a much debated

and widely studied research topic. Ever since the Chicago Board of Trade
introduced the commodity futures in 1865, various markets have been studied at
different time periods. The concern over how trading in index futures and options
affect the spot market has been an interesting subject for investors, academicians,
regulators and exchanges. Financial derivatives were introduced in India, mainly
as a risk management tool for both institutional and retail investors. The two main
functions of derivative market are: Price discovery and hedging. The available
literature offers two different kinds of arguments. Some authors like Gupta and

25
.
Kumar, Golaka C Nath found that the overall volatility of the underlying stock
market was reduced after introduction of derivative contracts on indices in India.
The other side of the argument is that the volatility of the spot market could
increase with the derivatives products because of speculation and arbitrage
strategies.
The results of this study are crucial to investors, stock exchange officials
and regulators. Derivatives play a very important role in the price discovery
process and in completing the market. Their role in risk management for
institutional investors and mutual fund managers need hardly be overemphasized.
This role as a tool for risk management clearly assumes that derivatives trading do
not increase market volatility and risk. The results of this study will throw some
light on the effects of derivative introduction on the efficiency and volatility of the
underlying cash markets.
The present paper attempts to study the impact of introduction of index

futures, index options, stock options and stock futures on the underlying spot
market volatility i.e., Nifty.
Methodology
The study is carried out using ordinary linear regression. The impact of the
introduction of derivative products on the volatility of Nifty-—the spot market
under study—is determined by comparing its volatility before and after the
introduction of derivative products. This can be done by calculating the
descriptive statistics, after eliminating the effect of various factors. For instance,
to nullify the effect of various market-wide factors, Nifty 500 taken into account,
which is a broad-based index for the Indian capital market; similarly to eliminate
the yesterday’s impact on the today’s market, Lag Nifty has also been included in
the regression equation. In this study, the Nifty volatility is regressed with Nifty
500, Lag Nifty and a dummy variable. The dummy variable assumes the value of
1’ for the post-derivative products period and 0’ for the pre-derivative products
period. The sign of the dummy coefficient signifies a fall or rise in the volatility
with the inception of derivative products. The data has been analyzed using

26
.
ordinary least square technique. To examine the impact of derivative products on

the volatility of the spot market, the following regression model has been used.
Nt =β0 + β1 Nifty 500 + β2 Dt

Nt is the standard deviation of Nifty return series
Nifty 500 represents the standard deviation of Nifty 500 return series is the
dummy variable.
Hypothesis
Using the above methodology, the following hypothesis was tested.
H0: Derivative products like index futures, index options, stock options and stock
futures
influence the underlying spot market volatility, i.e., Nifty.
H1: Derivative products like index futures, index options, stock options and stock
futures do not influence the underlying spot market volatility, i.e., Nifty.
Conclusion
This study has examined the impact of index futures, index options, stock option
and stock futures on the volatility of Nifty. A regression analysis has been done to
examine the changes in volatility with the help of dummy variables. The
coefficients of the dummy variables are positive, indicating that Nifty volatility
has increased with the introduction of the above- mentioned derivative products
such as index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures. This may be
due to the speculative operations and the FII’s active participation in the market.
The market players might have been attracted to the futures and options segment,
because of low transaction costs and the leverage advantage available in the
market. Index trading may not be blamed for the volatility in the spot market
because, in an excessively volatile cash market, the fear among investors
motivates them to engage in more hedging activities in the future market, which in
turn leads to volatility.

27
.

28
.
CHATER-III
3.1 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT
In the last decade, many emerging and transition economies have started
introducing the derivatives contracts. As was the case when commodity trading
were first introduced on Chicago Board of Trading in 1865, policy makers and
regulators were worried about impact of future on the underlying cash market.
One of the reason for this concern was futures trading attracts speculators who
then destabilize the spot market. In India too, Stock Future were introduced
during November 2001 with the purpose of offering the investors a hedging tool
to minimize their risk aroused mixed feeling amongst the inventors. The general
belief was, after the introduction Stock Future the market has become more
volatile. Implying there is more return at the cost of more risk. The purpose of this
study is to test the impact of index futures on spot market volatility.
3.2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The scope of the study is to find out: Whether the introduction of stock futures
reduces stock market volatility. The Study does not intend to find out whether
changes any other international markets affected the market during the same
period.
3.3 Objective of the study:
The introduction of derivatives products in Indian capital market has

not been very old, but today the notional trading values in the future
trading valves in the futures is ahead of cash market. Sometimes, the
notional trading value of the derivatives is higher than the cash market
trading values. The purpose of the study is to examine the impact of
introduction of stock futures on the underlying spot market volatility,
i.e., Nifty.

29
.
3.4 DATA
3.4.1 Nature of data:
The nature of the data for the above study will be a time series secondary data
showing heteroskedastic nature.
3.4.2 Sources of data:
The data employed in the study consists of daily closing prices of 40 stocks traded
on the CNX Nifty. These data will be collected from National Stock Exchange
website.
3.4.3 Data Period:
Data is collected for 4 years.

¾ Before introduction: 9th Nov 1999 to 9th Nov 2001
¾ After introduction: 10th Nov 2001 to 7th Nov 2003
3.5 HYPOTHESIS OF STUDY:
H0: Introduction of Stock Futures has no impact on the volatility of

Spot
Market.
H1: Introduction of Stock Futures has an impact on the volatility of
Spot
Market.

30
.
3.6 STATISTICAL PROCEDURE
3.6.1 CALCULATION OF LOG NATURALS:
As this volatility is calculated using historical prices this is called Historical

volatility. We have used the daily stock market data from June 1995 to May 2005.
We have calculated daily returns using the following equation:
Rt = LN (Pt/Pt-1)*100
Where Rt is the daily return, Pt is the value of the security on day t and Pt-1 is the
value of the security on day t-1.
3.6.2 UNIT ROOT TEST:

A unit root test tests whether a unit root is present in an autoregressive model. The
most famous test is the Dickey-Fuller test. Another test is the Phillips-Perron test.
Theory of Stationarity:
Following are different ways of thinking about whether a time series variable Xt is
stationary or has a unit root:
¾ In the AR (1) model, if F=1, then X has a unit root. If |F| <1 then X is
stationary.
¾ If X has a unit root, then its autocorrelations will be near one and will not
drop much as a lag length increases.
¾ If X has a unit root, then it will have a long memory. Stationary time series
do not have long memory.
¾ If X has a unit root then the series will exhibit trend behavior.
¾ If X has a unit root, then DX will be stationary. For this reason, series with
unit root are often referred to as difference stationary series.
¾ The stationarity condition of the data series used in the study has been
tested using Augmented Dickey Fuller Test.

31
.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (Unit root testing)

In Statistics and econometrics, an Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) is a
test for a unit root in a time series sample. It is an augmented version of the
Dickey-Fuller test to accommodate some forms of serial correlation.
Testing Procedure
The testing procedure for the ADF test is the same as for the Dickey-Fuller test
but it is applied to the model.
Where μ is a constant, β the coefficient on a time trend and p the lag order of the
autoregressive process. Imposing the constraints μ = 0 and β = 0 corresponds to
modeling a random walk and using the constraint β = 0 corresponds to modeling a
random walk with a drift. By including lags of the order p the ADF formulation
allows for higher-order autoregressive processes. This means that the lag length p
has to be determined when applying the test. One possible approach is to test
down from high orders and examine the t-values on coefficients.
The unit root test is then carried out under the null hypothesis γ = 0 against the
alternative hypothesis of γ < 0. Once a value for the test statistic computed it can
be compared to the relevant critical value for the Dickey-Fuller Test. If the test
statistic is less than the critical value then the null hypothesis of γ = 0 is rejected
and no unit root is present.

32
.
3.6.3 STANDARD DEVIATION:
The standard deviation of Log Natural returns is calculated using the following
methods:
Where R is the average return over the period.
3.6.4 F- TEST:
F- Test = (Standard Deviation 1)2
(Standard Deviation 2)2
3.7 Actual collection of data: The data includes the following:
1) Two years prior to introduction of Stock Futures

2) Two years after the introduction of Stock Futures
3.8 Tools used for testing of hypothesis:
The following statistical tools were used to analyze the data:
1) Log Natural
2) Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (for stationarity)
3) Standard Deviation
4) F- Test

33
.
3.9 Source of Secondary data:
• Books and Journals

• Capital Line
• Internet
• J Stor
3.10 Other software used for data analysis:
The following software’s were used for data analysis:
1) SPSS
2) E-VIEWS
3) EXCEL SPREADSHEET

34
.

35
.
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Daily closing prices for 40 stocks of CNX Nifty were obtained from
www.nseindia.com over the period 9th Nov 1999 to 9th Nov 2003. The data
comprises 502 observations for each stock related to the period prior to the
introduction of Stock Future and the remaining 499 observations for each stock to
the period after the introduction of Stock Futures. Continuously compounded
percentage returns are estimated as the log price relative. That is for an index with
daily closing price Pt, its return Rt is defined as log (Pt/Pt-1). All the return series
(before and after introduction period) are subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller
test. The data under consideration is stationary and unit root test doesn’t exist.
The tables below show the calculations of monthly standard deviation of all 40
companies for prior and after introduction of stock futures. Then the average of
standard deviation is calculated for prior and after introduction is calculated. The
F -test is computed on the average standard deviation. If the F-test value is less
than tabulated value, the null hypothesis is accepted which implies that the
introduction of stock futures has no impact on spot market volatility. It can be
observed from the graph that the Post- futures volatility is more compared to Pre-
future period. This broadly suggests that the introduction of stock futures has not
stabilized the spot market. The inference cannot be drawn from these figures
alone, as they are not supported by all statistical data.

36
.
ABB (Monthly Standard Deviation):
ABB
DATE Before DATE After
Nov-99 0.06152 Nov-01 0.02451 ABB Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.03006 Dec-01 0.01283
Jan-00 0.02967 Jan-02 0.012 0.2
Feb-00 0.04568 Feb-02 0.02673 0.15
Mar-00 0.03624 Mar-02 0.01979 0.1

Apr-00 0.03326 Apr-02 0.0189
0.05
May-00 0.02341 May-02 0.01889
Jun-00 0.02819 Jun-02 0.01764 0
1 27 53 79 105 131 157 183 209 235 261 287 313 339 365 391 417 443 469 495
Jul-00 0.02953 Jul-02 0.01368 -0.05
Aug-00 0.02139 Aug-02 0.00737 - 0.1
Sep-00 0.01344 Sep-02 0.0117 - 0.15

Oct-00 0.02005 Oct-02 0.03845
Nov-00 0.02304 Nov-02 0.02201
-0.2
N o . o f Ob se v a t i o n s
Dec-00 0.01734 Dec-02 0.01052
Jan-01 0.01996 Jan-03 0.01562
Feb-01 0.02185 Feb-03 0.01974
ABB Share Price (After)
Mar-01 0.03823 Mar-03 0.01492
Apr-01 0.03084 Apr-03 0.01759 0.2
May-01 0.0297 May-03 0.01469

0.15
Jun-01 0.01562 Jun-03 0.0263
Jul-01 0.01322 Jul-03 0.02055 0.1
Aug-01 0.00895 Aug-03 0.23539 0.05
Sep-01 0.03528 Sep-03 0.02143

Oct-01 0.01057 Oct-03 0.02061 0
1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
Avg 0.0265 Avg 0.0276 - 0.05
- 0.1
F test 1.0795 -0.15
N o . o f Ob se r v a t i o n s
Interpretation:
If F-Test value is above 2.08 tabulated value = Significant
If F-Test value is below 2.08 tabulated value = Non-significant
Since F-Test value is less than tabulated value, null hypothesis is accepted
and there is no impact of stock futures on volatility of spot market.

37
.
ACC (Monthly Standard Deviation):

ACC
Nov-99 0.0326 Nov-01 0.0252 Acc Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0447 Dec-01 0.0189
0.1
Jan-00 0.034 Jan-02 0.0295 0.08
Feb-00 0.0431 Feb-02 0.0286 0.06
Mar-00 0.0522 Mar-02 0.0198 0.04
Apr-00 0.0478 Apr-02 0.0111 0.02
May-00 0.0422 May-02 0.0202 0

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381
Jun-00 0.0182 Jun-02 0.0107

- 0.02
- 0.04
Jul-00 0.0378 Jul-02 0.0161 - 0.06
Aug-00 0.0308 Aug-02 0.0145 - 0.08
Sep-00 0.0256 Sep-02 0.0162 - 0.1
Oct-00 0.0243 Oct-02 0.0159

N o . o f Ob se r v a t i on
Nov-00 0.0398 Nov-02 0.0162

Dec-00 0.0241 Dec-02 0.0158
Jan-01 0.023 Jan-03 0.0162
ACC Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.0218 Feb-03 0.0249
Mar-01 0.0622 Mar-03 0.019 0.1
Apr-01 0.0527 Apr-03 0.0142 0.08
May-01 0.035 May-03 0.0141 0.06
Jun-01 0.0201 Jun-03 0.0226 0.04
Jul-01 0.0232 Jul-03 0.0268 0.02
Aug-01 0.013 Aug-03 0.2292 0

1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
Sep-01 0.0507 Sep-03 0.0274 -0.02
Oct-01 0.0279 Oct-03 0.0237 -0.04
-0.06
Avg 0.034 Avg 0.028 -0.08
N o . o f Ob se r v a t i o n
F test 0.67
Interpretation:

38
.
Arvind Mills (Monthly Standard Deviation):
Arvind Mills
Nov-99 0.0174 Nov-01 0.0234 Arvind Mills Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0376 Dec-01 0.0459

0.2500
Jan-00 0.0383 Jan-02 0.0249
0.2000
Feb-00 0.0438 Feb-02 0.0563
0.1500
Mar-00 0.0373 Mar-02 0.031
Apr-00 0.048 Apr-02 0.0479 0.1000
May-00 0.0541 May-02 0.0301 0.0500
Jun-00 0.0447 Jun-02 0.0527 0.0000

1 29 57 85 113 141 169 197 225 253 281 309 337 365 393
Jul-00 0.0181 Jul-02 0.0371 -0.0500
Aug-00 0.0251 Aug-02 0.0266 -0.1000
Sep-00 0.072 Sep-02 0.0299 -0.1500

N o . o f Ob ser vat io ns
Oct-00 0.0245 Oct-02 0.0156
Nov-00 0.0607 Nov-02 0.0289
Dec-00 0.0463 Dec-02 0.0211
Jan-01 0.035 Jan-03 0.0257 Arvind Mills Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.0481 Feb-03 0.0221
0.2000
Mar-01 0.0524 Mar-03 0.0134
Apr-01 0.0307 Apr-03 0.0324 0.1500
May-01 0.0451 May-03 0.0372 0.1000
Jun-01 0.0364 Jun-03 0.0203

Jul-01 0.0208 Jul-03 0.0364 0.0500
Aug-01 0.0321 Aug-03 0.2273 0.0000
Sep-01 0.0472 Sep-03 0.0297 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397
Oct-01 0.0236 Oct-03 0.037

-0.0500
Avg 0.04 Avg 0.04 -0.1000
F test 1.03
Interpretation:

39
.
BAJAJ AUTO (Monthly Standard Deviation) :
BAJAJ AUTO
Nov-99 0.0114 Nov-01 0.0158 Bajaj Auto Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0277 Dec-01 0.0159
Jan-00 0.0371 Jan-02 0.0258 0.1
Feb-00 0.0323 Feb-02 0.0213 0.05

Mar-00 0.039 Mar-02 0.0173
Apr-00 0.0182 Apr-02 0.0212
Log Naturals
0
1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375
May-00 0.0144 May-02 0.0224
Jun-00 0.0124 Jun-02 0.0186 -0.05
Jul-00 0.0136 Jul-02 0.0215 -0.1

Aug-00 0.0106 Aug-02 0.0177
Sep-00 0.0095 Sep-02 0.0185 -0.15
Oct-00 0.0398 Oct-02 0.0237 No. of Observ ations
Nov-00 0.0189 Nov-02 0.0185

Dec-00 0.0264 Dec-02 0.0129
Jan-01 0.0376 Jan-03 0.0156 Bajaj Auto Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.0254 Feb-03 0.0155
Mar-01 0.0283 Mar-03 0.0158
0.08
Apr-01 0.0219 Apr-03 0.0158 0.06
May-01 0.0283 May-03 0.0115 0.04
Jun-01 0.0307 Jun-03 0.0204

Log Natural
0.02
Jul-01 0.0234 Jul-03 0.02 0

Aug-01 0.02 Aug-03 0.2246 1 24 47 70 93 116 139 162 185 208 231 254 277 300 323 346 369 392
Sep-01 0.0144 Sep-03 0.0188

-0.02
Oct-01 0.0253 Oct-03 0.0177 -0.04
Avg 0.02 Avg 0.03 -0.06
No. of Observ ations
F test 1.303
Interpretation:

40
.
BHEL (Monthly Standard Deviation):
BHEL
Nov-99 0.026 Nov-01 0.0221 BHEL Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0364 Dec-01 0.0218
Jan-00 0.0384 Jan-02 0.0219 0.2000
Feb-00 0.0456 Feb-02 0.0431 0.1500
Mar-00 0.05 Mar-02 0.0247 0.1000
Apr-00 0.0467 Apr-02 0.0192
Log Natural
0.0500
May-00 0.0382 May-02 0.0223

0.0000
Jun-00 0.0263 Jun-02 0.0211 1 24 47 70 93 116 139 162 185 208 231 254 277 300 323 346 369 392
Jul-00 0.0441 Jul-02 0.0147 -0.0500
Aug-00 0.0209 Aug-02 0.0098 -0.1000
Sep-00 0.0444 Sep-02 0.0108 -0.1500
Nov-00 0.0357 Nov-02 0.0168

Dec-00 0.0511 Dec-02 0.0146
Jan-01 0.0302 Jan-03 0.0178 BHEL Share Price
Feb-01 0.039 Feb-03 0.0236
Mar-01 0.052 Mar-03 0.0174
0.1500
Apr-01 0.0478 Apr-03 0.0176 0.1000
May-01 0.0251 May-03 0.0195

0.0500
Jun-01 0.0269 Jun-03 0.0169
Log Natural
Jul-01 0.0436 Jul-03 0.0187 0.0000

1 24 47 70 93 116 139 162 185 208 231 254 277 300 323 346 369 392
Aug-01 0.019 Aug-03 0.2286 -0.0500
Sep-01 0.0437 Sep-03 0.0224

Oct-01 0.0253 Oct-03 0.026 -0.1000
Avg 0.04 Avg 0.03 -0.1500
F test 0.603
Interpretation:

41
.
BPCL(Monthly Standard Deviation) :
BPCL
Nov-99 0.0444 Nov-01 0.0186 BPCL Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0385 Dec-01 0.0364
Jan-00 0.0283 Jan-02 0.0244
0.2
0.1
Feb-00 0.05 Feb-02 0.0444 0
Mar-00 0.0617 Mar-02 0.0229 -0.1

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381
Apr-00 0.0455 Apr-02 0.0225 -0.2
May-00 0.0621 May-02 0.0322 -0.3
Jun-00 0.0272 Jun-02 0.0276 -0.4
-0.5
Jul-00 0.0401 Jul-02 0.0241 -0.6
Aug-00 0.0234 Aug-02 0.021 -0.7
Sep-00 0.0352 Sep-02 0.0543 -0.8
Oct-00 0.0353 Oct-02 0.0368 N o . o f Ob se r v a t i o n s
Nov-00 0.0333 Nov-02 0.0116

Dec-00 0.1586 Dec-02 0.0341
Jan-01 0.0366 Jan-03 0.0208 BPCL Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.0523 Feb-03 0.0162
Mar-01 0.0556 Mar-03 0.0204
0.2
0.15
Apr-01 0.0483 Apr-03 0.0135
0.1
May-01 0.0225 May-03 0.022
0.05
Jun-01 0.0254 Jun-03 0.0129
0
Jul-01 0.0206 Jul-03 0.0217 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397
-0.05
Aug-01 0.0178 Aug-03 0.231
-0.1
Sep-01 0.0468 Sep-03 0.0275
-0.15
Oct-01 0.0261 Oct-03 0.0289
-0.2
Avg 0.04 Avg 0.03 -0.25
N o . of Ob se r v a t i on s
F test 0.636
Interpretation:

42
.
CIPLA (Monthly Standard Deviation):
CIPLA
Nov-99 0.03 Nov-01 0.0148 Cipla Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0319 Dec-01 0.0102
Jan-00 0.0396 Jan-02 0.0106 0.15
Feb-00 0.0322 Feb-02 0.0115 0.1
Mar-00 0.0563 Mar-02 0.0067

0.05
Apr-00 0.0457 Apr-02 0.0152
Log Naturals
May-00 0.0416 May-02 0.0133 0
1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
Jun-00 0.0331 Jun-02 0.0123 -0.05
Jul-00 0.0459 Jul-02 0.0061

Aug-00 0.0207 Aug-02 0.0109 -0.1
Sep-00 0.0205 Sep-02 0.0121 -0.15
Nov-00 0.0265 Nov-02 0.0112

Dec-00 0.0322 Dec-02 0.0102
Jan-01 0.0148 Jan-03 0.0162 Cipla Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.0185 Feb-03 0.0096
Mar-01 0.0259 Mar-03 0.0151
0.06
Apr-01 0.0392 Apr-03 0.0282

0.04
May-01 0.0232 May-03 0.0092

0.02
0
Jun-01 0.015 Jun-03 0.0142 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397
- 0.02
Jul-01 0.0215 Jul-03 0.0212
- 0.04
Aug-01 0.0235 Aug-03 0.2317
- 0.06
Sep-01 0.0373 Sep-03 0.0182
- 0.08
Oct-01 0.029 Oct-03 0.0219
-0.1
Avg 0.03 Avg 0.02 -0.12
N o . of Ob se r v a t i o ns
F test 0.574
Interpretation:

43
.
COLGATE (Monthly Standard Deviation):
COLGATE
Nov-99 0.01543 Nov-01 0.013
Colgate Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.01583 Dec-01 0.0093
Jan-00 0.02886 Jan-02 0.0085 0.12
Feb-00 0.02864 Feb-02 0.0103 0.1
Mar-00 0.02692 Mar-02 0.0041 0.08
0.06
Apr-00 0.03766 Apr-02 0.0335 0.04
Log Natural
May-00 0.02546 May-02 0.0058 0.02
Jun-00 0.0191 Jun-02 0.0128 0

1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
-0.02
Jul-00 0.02136 Jul-02 0.0119 -0.04
Aug-00 0.01823 Aug-02 0.0064 -0.06
Sep-00 0.01333 Sep-02 0.0031 -0.08
Oct-00 0.01684 Oct-02 0.0087 -0.1
Nov-00 0.01352 Nov-02 0.006

Dec-00 0.01312 Dec-02 0.0123
Jan-01 0.01504 Jan-03 0.0056
Colgate Share Prices (After)
Feb-01 0.0246 Feb-03 0.0093
Mar-01 0.01366 Mar-03 0.0071 0.15
Apr-01 0.02013 Apr-03 0.0096

May-01 0.01331 May-03 0.0106 0.1
Jun-01 0.00792 Jun-03 0.0289 0.05
Jul-01 0.01367 Jul-03 0.0215

Log Natural
Aug-01 0.0071 Aug-03 0.2258 0

1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397
Sep-01 0.01744 Sep-03 0.0108 -0.05
Oct-01 0.00723 Oct-03 0.0111

-0.1
Avg 0.018 Avg 0.02
-0.15
F test 1.2527
Interpretation:

44
.
DABUR(Monthly Standard Deviation) :
DABUR
Nov-99 0.01877 Nov-01 0.0207 Dabur Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0388 Dec-01 0.0404
Jan-00 0.04699 Jan-02 0.0111 0.5
Feb-00 0.04671 Feb-02 0.0141 0
Mar-00 0.04935 Mar-02 0.0225

1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
-0.5
Apr-00 0.04564 Apr-02 0.0227
Log Natural
May-00 0.02831 May-02 0.0131 -1
Jun-00 0.01787 Jun-02 0.015 -1.5
Jul-00 0.02645 Jul-02 0.0191

Aug-00 0.01615 Aug-02 0.0154 -2
Sep-00 0.02643 Sep-02 0.0076 -2.5
Nov-00 0.47973 Nov-02 0.0083

Dec-00 0.02669 Dec-02 0.0087
Jan-01 0.01205 Jan-03 0.0206 Dabur Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.02799 Feb-03 0.0119

0.12
Mar-01 0.03312 Mar-03 0.0148 0.1
Apr-01 0.02307 Apr-03 0.0203 0.08
May-01 0.02018 May-03 0.0224 0.06
Jun-01 0.01702 Jun-03 0.018

Log Natural
0.04
Jul-01 0.00888 Jul-03 0.0317 0.02
Aug-01 0.01516 Aug-03 0.2205

0
1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397
-0.02
Sep-01 0.03167 Sep-03 0.0348 -0.04
Oct-01 0.01475 Oct-03 0.0173 -0.06
Avg 0.046 Avg 0.03 -0.08
F test 0.3399
Interpretation:

45
.
DR REDDY (Monthly Standard Deviation):
DR REDDY
Nov-99 0.03796 Nov-01 0.0362
Dec-99 0.04225 Dec-01 0.0159 Dr Reddy Share Price (Before)
Jan-00 0.04625 Jan-02 0.0154 0.2
Feb-00 0.05019 Feb-02 0.0233 0.1
Mar-00 0.07129 Mar-02 0.0158 0

1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
Apr-00 0.05175 Apr-02 0.0163 -0.1
May-00 0.04012 May-02 0.0224 - 0.2
- 0.3
Jun-00 0.03353 Jun-02 0.012 - 0.4
Jul-00 0.03778 Jul-02 0.0342 - 0.5
Aug-00 0.02206 Aug-02 0.0088 - 0.6
Sep-00 0.02582 Sep-02 0.0161 - 0.7
Oct-00 0.02239 Oct-02 0.023 - 0.8
N o . o f Obse r v a t o n s
Nov-00 0.024 Nov-02 0.0126
Dec-00 0.02061 Dec-02 0.0219
Jan-01 0.01581 Jan-03 0.0174
Dr Reddy Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.01281 Feb-03 0.0102
Mar-01 0.02883 Mar-03 0.0083 0.15
Apr-01 0.04356 Apr-03 0.0237

0.1
May-01 0.02206 May-03 0.0149
Jun-01 0.03061 Jun-03 0.0212 0.05
Jul-01 0.02729 Jul-03 0.0279 0

1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
Aug-01 0.02647 Aug-03 0.2443 - 0.05
Sep-01 0.02902 Sep-03 0.0185

-0.1
Oct-01 0.1587 Oct-03 0.0287
-0.15
Avg 0.038 Avg 0.03
- 0.2
F test 0.5592
Interpretation:

46
.
ESSAR OIL (Monthly Standard Deviation):
Essar Oil
Nov-99 0.03519 Nov-01 0.0479 Essaar Oil Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.02939 Dec-01 0.0278
Jan-00 0.03295 Jan-02 0.0196 0.25
Feb-00 0.04345 Feb-02 0.0382 0.2
0.15
Mar-00 0.04905 Mar-02 0.035
0.1
Apr-00 0.06417 Apr-02 0.0242 0.05
May-00 0.03634 May-02 0.0681 0
Jun-00 0.03248 Jun-02 0.031 -0.05

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381
Jul-00 0.04101 Jul-02 0.0413 -0.1
Aug-00 0.02676 Aug-02 0.0327 -0.15
Sep-00 0.05524 Sep-02 0.0253 -0.2
Oct-00 0.03467 Oct-02 0.0252 -0.25
Nov-00 0.02054 Nov-02 0.0264
Dec-00 0.02377 Dec-02 0.0249
Jan-01 0.02957 Jan-03 0.0125
Essar Oil Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.0512 Feb-03 0.0322
Mar-01 0.08201 Mar-03 0.0243 0.25
Apr-01 0.03853 Apr-03 1.0993 0.2
May-01 0.02799 May-03 0.0609 0.15
Jun-01 0.0308 Jun-03 0.056 0.1

Jul-01 0.01711 Jul-03 0.0662
0.05
Aug-01 0.03172 Aug-03 0.2512
0
Sep-01 0.04249 Sep-03 0.0523 1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
- 0.05
Oct-01 0.0644 Oct-03 0.0394
-0.1
Avg 0.039 Avg 0.09 -0.15
F test 5.2808
Interpretation:
Since F-Test value is more than tabulated value, null hypothesis is rejected
and there is impact of stock futures on volatility of spot market.

47
.
GLAXO (Monthly Standard Deviation):
GLAXO
Nov-99 0.0144 Nov-01 0.0232 Glaxo Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.02149 Dec-01 0.0168
Jan-00 0.03226 Jan-02 0.0164 0.15
Feb-00 0.03927 Feb-02 0.0216 0.1
Mar-00 0.03493 Mar-02 0.0159

0.05
Apr-00 0.03499 Apr-02 0.0281
May-00 0.03334 May-02 0.0256 0
1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
Jun-00 0.04018 Jun-02 0.0168 -0.05
Jul-00 0.02847 Jul-02 0.0185
Aug-00 0.01795 Aug-02 0.0088 - 0.1
Sep-00 0.01477 Sep-02 0.0101 - 0.15
Oct-00 0.02619 Oct-02 0.0153 N o . o f Ob se r v a t i o n s
Nov-00 0.01264 Nov-02 0.018

Dec-00 0.01566 Dec-02 0.0137
Glaxo Share Price (After)
Jan-01 0.01013 Jan-03 0.0098
Feb-01 0.03159 Feb-03 0.0155 0.1
Mar-01 0.02578 Mar-03 0.0113 0.08
Apr-01 0.02532 Apr-03 0.0147 0.06
0.04
May-01 0.02583 May-03 0.0134 0.02
Jun-01 0.02912 Jun-03 0.0127 0
Jul-01 0.02432 Jul-03 0.0228 -0.02

1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397
Aug-01 0.00804 Aug-03 0.2369 -0.04
Sep-01 0.03318 Sep-03 0.0194 -0.06
Oct-01 0.01737 Oct-03 0.0132

-0.08
-0.1
Avg 0.025 Avg 0.03 N o. o f Ob se r v a t o n s
F test 1.0726
Interpretation:

48
.
GRASIM (Monthly Standard Deviation):
GRASIM
Nov-99 0.0134 Nov-01 0.0193 Grasim Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.0392 Dec-01 0.0263
Jan-00 0.03906 Jan-02 0.0117 0.15
Feb-00 0.04384 Feb-02 0.0164 0.1
Mar-00 0.05117 Mar-02 0.012 0.05
Apr-00 0.04196 Apr-02 0.009 0
May-00 0.05954 May-02 0.0201 1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
-0.05
Jun-00 0.03255 Jun-02 0.0123
Jul-00 0.03707 Jul-02 0.0162 -0.1
Aug-00 0.0368 Aug-02 0.0075 -0.15
Sep-00 0.02552 Sep-02 0.0105 -0.2
Oct-00 0.03884 Oct-02 0.0136 N o . o f Ob se r v a t i o ns
Nov-00 0.0306 Nov-02 0.0127

Dec-00 0.04659 Dec-02 0.0176
Grasim Share Price (After)
Jan-01 0.02619 Jan-03 0.0123
Feb-01 0.03343 Feb-03 0.0111 0.15
Mar-01 0.04075 Mar-03 0.01

Apr-01 0.04646 Apr-03 0.0153 0.1
May-01 0.02373 May-03 0.0148

Jun-01 0.01949 Jun-03 0.0343 0.05
Jul-01 0.02512 Jul-03 0.0166

Aug-01 0.01762 Aug-03 0.2268 0
1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
Sep-01 0.03283 Sep-03 0.0234

-0.05
Oct-01 0.0198 Oct-03 0.0275
Avg 0.034 Avg 0.02 -0.1
N o . o f Ob se r v a t i on s
F test 0.529
Interpretation:

49
.
GUJARATH AMBUJA CEMENT (Monthly Standard Deviation):
GUJAMBCEM
Nov-99 0.0104 Nov-01 0.0129 Gujrath Am buja Cem ent Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.15848 Dec-01 0.0253
Jan-00 0.0466 Jan-02 0.0241 0.15
Feb-00 0.03051 Feb-02 0.0361 0.1
Mar-00 0.04145 Mar-02 0.016

Apr-00 0.04111 Apr-02 0.0237 0.05
Log Natural
May-00 0.04283 May-02 0.0156 0
Jun-00 0.02218 Jun-02 0.004 1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379
-0.05
Jul-00 0.03706 Jul-02 0.0093
Aug-00 0.03711 Aug-02 0.0128 -0.1
Sep-00 0.02112 Sep-02 0.0168 -0.15

Nov-00 0.02566 Nov-02 0.01

Dec-00 0.0281 Dec-02 0.0119
Jan-01 0.022 Jan-03 0.0151 Gujrath Am buja Cem ent Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.03241 Feb-03 0.0138
Mar-01 0.04024 Mar-03 0.0125 0.1
Apr-01 0.03731 Apr-03 0.0079 0.08
May-01 0.02991 May-03 0.0136 0.06
Jun-01 0.01097 Jun-03 0.0159 0.04
Jul-01 0.01481 Jul-03 0.0177 0.02
Aug-01 0.01087 Aug-03 0.228

0
Sep-01 0.02966 Sep-03 0.026 1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
-0.02
Oct-01 0.01995 Oct-03 0.0214
-0.04
Avg 0.034 Avg 0.03 -0.06
N o. o f Obse r v a t i on s
F test 0.5438
Interpretation:

50
.
HDFC BANK (Monthly Standard Deviation):
HDFCBANK
Nov-99 0.03515 Nov-01 0.01
Dec-99 0.04716 Dec-01 0.017 HDFC Bank Share Prices (Before)
Jan-00 0.04136 Jan-02 0.0167 0.15
Feb-00 0.04329 Feb-02 0.0245

Mar-00 0.04324 Mar-02 0.0126 0.1
Apr-00 0.05714 Apr-02 0.0115 0.05
May-00 0.02348 May-02 0.0136

0
Jun-00 0.0236 Jun-02 0.0119 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381
Jul-00 0.02561 Jul-02 0.0119 -0.05
Aug-00 0.03683 Aug-02 0.0058

- 0.1
Sep-00 0.03453 Sep-02 0.0184
Oct-00 0.01411 Oct-02 0.0102 - 0.15
N o. o f Ob se r v a t on s
Nov-00 0.01727 Nov-02 0.0086
Dec-00 0.01787 Dec-02 0.0183
Jan-01 0.01884 Jan-03 0.0171 HDFC Bank Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.02453 Feb-03 0.0092
Mar-01 0.03885 Mar-03 0.0172 0.08
Apr-01 0.01628 Apr-03 0.0155 0.06
May-01 0.01381 May-03 0.0137 0.04
Jun-01 0.02751 Jun-03 0.0168 0.02
Jul-01 0.01668 Jul-03 0.031 0
Aug-01 0.01208 Aug-03 0.2285 - 0.02

1 22 43 64 85 106 127 148 169 190 211 232 253 274 295 316 337 358 379 400
Sep-01 0.03612 Sep-03 0.0155

- 0.04
Oct-01 0.01609 Oct-03 0.0233
- 0.06
Avg 0.028 Avg 0.02 - 0.08
N o . o f Ob se r v a t i o ns
F test 0.722
Interpretation:

51
.
HDFC (Monthly Standard Deviation):
HDFC
Nov-99 0.02763 Nov-01 0.0117 HDFC Share Price (Before)
Dec-99 0.03653 Dec-01 0.0079
Jan-00 0.02811 Jan-02 0.013 0.15
Feb-00 0.04782 Feb-02 0.0194 0.1
Mar-00 0.04631 Mar-02 0.0126

Apr-00 0.03979 Apr-02 0.0134 0.05
May-00 0.04467 May-02 0.0118 0
Jun-00 0.02495 Jun-02 0.0211 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381
Jul-00 0.04611 Jul-02 0.0152

-0.05
Aug-00 0.01788 Aug-02 0.0146 -0.1
Sep-00 0.02454 Sep-02 0.0115

-0.15
Oct-00 0.01387 Oct-02 0.0112 N o . of Ob se r v a t i o ns
Nov-00 0.01775 Nov-02 0.0107

Dec-00 0.01081 Dec-02 0.1582
Jan-01 0.03159 Jan-03 0.0092 HDFC Share Price (After)
Feb-01 0.02065 Feb-03 0.0119
Mar-01 0.03617 Mar-03 0.0151 0.1
Apr-01 0.02008 Apr-03 0.0227 0

1 29 57 85 113 141 169 197 225 253 281 309 337 365 393
May-01 0.02441 May-03 0.0191 -0.1
Jun-01 0.01407 Jun-03 0.0196 -0.2
Jul-01 0.01315 Jul-03 0.0281 -0.3
Aug-01 0.01538 Aug-03 0.2243 -0.4
Sep-01 0.04149 Sep-03 0.0245 -0.5
Oct-01 0.02679 Oct-03 0.0236 -0.6
-0.7
Avg 0.028 Avg 0.03 -0.8
N o . o f Ob ser vat io ns
F test 1.1862
Interpretation:

52
.
HERO HONDA (Monthly Standard Deviation):
HEROHONDA
Nov-99 0.02135 Nov-01 0.12888
Dec-99 0.037566 Dec-01 0.01928
Jan-00 0.029683 Jan-02 0.0294
Feb-00 0.022306 Feb-02 0.03164
Mar-00 0.025893 Mar-02 0.03099
Apr-00 0.027902 Apr-02 0.0177
May-00 0.037436 May-02 0.02412
Jun-00 0.032869 Jun-02 0.01949
Jul-00 0.028086 Jul-02 0.02065
Aug-00 0.044448 Aug-02 0.02257
Sep-00 0.041322 Sep-02 0.02016
Oct-00 0.016282 Oct-02 0.03898
Nov-00 0.014536 Nov-02 0.02551
Dec-00 0.042296 Dec-02 0.02182
Jan-01 0.00846 Jan-03 0.0139
Feb-01 0.02841 Feb-03 0.02616
Mar-01 0.024006 Mar-03 0.03105
Apr-01 0.013224 Apr-03 0.03141
May-01 0.015002 May-03 0.02102
Jun-01 0.020783 Jun-03 0.02009
Jul-01 0.040002 Jul-03 0.02409
Aug-01 0.353278 Aug-03 0.23338
Sep-01 0.059998 Sep-03 0.02275
Oct-01 0.026856 Oct-03 0.02665
Avg 0.0422 Avg 0.038
F test 0.79392
Interpretation:

53
.
HINDUSTAN LEVER (Monthly Standard Deviation):
HINDLEVER
Nov-99 0.015578 Nov-01 0.01238
Dec-99 0.019735 Dec-01 0.00991
Jan-00 0.030375 Jan-02 0.0122
Feb-00 0.041748 Feb-02 0.01747
Mar-00 0.041877 Mar-02 0.02114
Apr-00 0.040231 Apr-02 0.01931
May-00 0.040802 May-02 0.0195
Jun-00 0.020293 Jun-02 0.02124
Jul-00 0.494382 Jul-02 0.0117
Aug-00 0.023101 Aug-02 0.01587
Sep-00 0.025015 Sep-02 0.01473
Oct-00 0.029299 Oct-02 0.02123
Nov-00 0.024763 Nov-02 0.01199
Dec-00 0.02246 Dec-02 0.01127
Jan-01 0.023276 Jan-03 0.00784
Feb-01 0.033639 Feb-03 0.01423
Mar-01 0.023494 Mar-03 0.01553
Apr-01 0.015677 Apr-03 0.02518
May-01 0.010903 May-03 0.01327
Jun-01 0.018886 Jun-03 0.01556
Jul-01 0.020695 Jul-03 0.02475
Aug-01 0.012815 Aug-03 0.23387
Sep-01 0.037068 Sep-03 0.02357
Oct-01 0.024815 Oct-03 0.02043
Avg 0.0455 Avg 0.026
F test 0.31693
Interpretation:

54
.
ICICI BANK (Monthly Standard Deviation):
ICICIBANK
Nov-99 0.05683 Nov-01 0.03162
Dec-99 0.06011 Dec-01 0.0211
Jan-00 0.06015 Jan-02 0.01935
Feb-00 0.02958 Feb-02 0.0451
Mar-00 0.03051 Mar-02 0.01542
Apr-00 0.02204 Apr-02 0.01362
May-00 0.0145 May-02 0.0267
Jun-00 0.04734 Jun-02 0.03375
Jul-00 0.06348 Jul-02 0.02649
Aug-00 0.04376 Aug-02 0.01495
Sep-00 0.03254 Sep-02 0.01507
Oct-00 0.03614 Oct-02 0.02553
Nov-00 0.04303 Nov-02 0.03614
Dec-00 0.08417 Dec-02 0.02097
Jan-01 0.03055 Jan-03 0.01931
Feb-01 0.02343 Feb-03 0.01218
Mar-01 0.02004 Mar-03 0.01422
Apr-01 0.04404 Apr-03 0.01518
May-01 0.02729 May-03 0.02202
Jun-01 0.05453 Jun-03 0.0163
Jul-01 0.02986 Jul-03 0.01998
Aug-01 0.02084 Aug-03 0.24501
Sep-01 0.02231 Sep-03 0.02066
Oct-01 0.01622 Oct-03 0.0212
Avg 0.038 Avg 0.031
F test 0.678
Interpretation:

55
.
IDBI (Monthly Standard Deviation):
IDBI
Nov-99 0.01137 Nov-01 0.01383
Dec-99 0.03463 Dec-01 0.01472
Jan-00 0.03614 Jan-02 0.01541
Feb-00 0.03778 Feb-02 0.04778
Mar-00 0.06726 Mar-02 0.01623
Apr-00 0.03889 Apr-02 0.00993
May-00 0.03476 May-02 0.02727
Jun-00 0.03357 Jun-02 0.05006
Jul-00 0.01617 Jul-02 0.03628
Aug-00 0.01044 Aug-02 0.02426
Sep-00 0.03897 Sep-02 0.01351
Oct-00 0.01348 Oct-02 0.0359
Nov-00 0.03225 Nov-02 0.02446
Dec-00 0.0402 Dec-02 0.03137
Jan-01 0.02634 Jan-03 0.02542
Feb-01 0.10072 Feb-03 0.01741
Mar-01 0.02567 Mar-03 0.01449
Apr-01 0.01735 Apr-03 0.01712
May-01 0.03721 May-03 0.053
Jun-01 0.01679 Jun-03 0.05663
Jul-01 0.0166 Jul-03 0.03503
Aug-01 0.02252 Aug-03 0.22275
Sep-01 0.0376 Sep-03 0.03728
Oct-01 0.02921 Oct-03 0.04486
Avg 0.032 Avg 0.037
F test 1.301
Interpretation:

56
.
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGY (Monthly Standard Deviation):
INFOSYSTECH
Nov-99 0.026993 Nov-01 0.04234
Dec-99 0.033779 Dec-01 0.03897
Jan-00 0.155214 Jan-02 0.03939
Feb-00 0.048109 Feb-02 0.02415
Mar-00 0.064878 Mar-02 0.02439
Apr-00 0.067675 Apr-02 0.02302
May-00 0.0465 May-02 0.01932
Jun-00 0.0311 Jun-02 0.02974
Jul-00 0.027608 Jul-02 0.02021
Aug-00 0.043353 Aug-02 0.01891
Sep-00 0.032851 Sep-02 0.01924
Oct-00 0.033273 Oct-02 0.01742
Nov-00 0.0204 Nov-02 0.02075
Dec-00 0.028357 Dec-02 0.01921
Jan-01 0.036026 Jan-03 0.02361
Feb-01 0.031988 Feb-03 0.01836
Mar-01 0.065239 Mar-03 0.01939
Apr-01 0.082789 Apr-03 0.08254
May-01 0.029731 May-03 0.02984
Jun-01 0.038921 Jun-03 0.02395
Jul-01 0.041492 Jul-03 0.0326
Aug-01 0.02423 Aug-03 0.23351
Sep-01 0.053028 Sep-03 0.03234
Oct-01 0.040324 Oct-03 0.01956
Avg 0.046 Avg 0.036
F test 0.62514
Interpretation:

57
.
IPCL (Monthly Standard Deviation):
IPCL
Nov-99 0.01237 Nov-01 0.03422
Dec-99 0.041111 Dec-01 0.01997
Jan-00 0.042001 Jan-02 0.02226
Feb-00 0.046759 Feb-02 0.03682
Mar-00 0.038789 Mar-02 0.022
Apr-00 0.043547 Apr-02 0.0281
May-00 0.044796 May-02 0.03602
Jun-00 0.050332 Jun-02 0.00579
Jul-00 0.023513 Jul-02 0.00602
Aug-00 0.024326 Aug-02 0.08131
Sep-00 0.03478 Sep-02 0.01607
Oct-00 0.029505 Oct-02 0.0238
Nov-00 0.027787 Nov-02 0.01908
Dec-00 0.03122 Dec-02 0.02261
Jan-01 0.028089 Jan-03 0.02433
Feb-01 0.032947 Feb-03 0.01971
Mar-01 0.056011 Mar-03 0.01671
Apr-01 0.033134 Apr-03 0.02246
May-01 0.023708 May-03 0.0175
Jun-01 0.016838 Jun-03 0.01943
Jul-01 0.020678 Jul-03 0.02998
Aug-01 0.011881 Aug-03 0.22442
Sep-01 0.03933 Sep-03 0.04141
Oct-01 0.018679 Oct-03 0.02692
Avg 0.0322 Avg 0.034
F test 1.11941
Interpretation:

58
.
ITC (Monthly Standard Deviation):
ITC
Nov-99 0.027145 Nov-01 0.03317
Dec-99 0.035354 Dec-01 0.01688
Jan-00 0.052969 Jan-02 0.0181
Feb-00 0.052116 Feb-02 0.01563
Mar-00 0.045027 Mar-02 0.01384
Apr-00 0.0506 Apr-02 0.0166
May-00 0.037741 May-02 0.02245
Jun-00 0.024388 Jun-02 0.01709
Jul-00 0.022439 Jul-02 0.02207
Aug-00 0.017579 Aug-02 0.02224
Sep-00 0.029259 Sep-02 0.013
Oct-00 0.019195 Oct-02 0.00989
Nov-00 0.020232 Nov-02 0.01149
Dec-00 0.016337 Dec-02 0.0134
Jan-01 0.018655 Jan-03 0.01188
Feb-01 0.032679 Feb-03 0.00844
Mar-01 0.032642 Mar-03 0.00981
Apr-01 0.016173 Apr-03 0.01186
May-01 0.01375 May-03 0.01401
Jun-01 0.023653 Jun-03 0.01676
Jul-01 0.016425 Jul-03 0.01344
Aug-01 0.016901 Aug-03 0.22882
Sep-01 0.03372 Sep-03 0.02017
Oct-01 0.026729 Oct-03 0.0173
Avg 0.0284 Avg 0.025
F test 0.77037
Interpretation:

59
.
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA (Monthly Standard Deviation):
M&M
Nov-99 0.038439 Nov-01 0.04823
Dec-99 0.032051 Dec-01 0.03299
Jan-00 0.049966 Jan-02 0.03804
Feb-00 0.055074 Feb-02 0.03029
Mar-00 0.062155 Mar-02 0.01778
Apr-00 0.049582 Apr-02 0.02527
May-00 0.06316 May-02 0.03462
Jun-00 0.018415 Jun-02 0.0306
Jul-00 0.053787 Jul-02 0.02052
Aug-00 0.03384 Aug-02 0.01648
Sep-00 0.027814 Sep-02 0.01114
Oct-00 0.029617 Oct-02 0.0158
Nov-00 0.022869 Nov-02 0.01923
Dec-00 0.029325 Dec-02 0.01899
Jan-01 0.016153 Jan-03 0.02096
Feb-01 0.033494 Feb-03 0.01713
Mar-01 0.046255 Mar-03 0.01359
Apr-01 0.029652 Apr-03 0.01496
May-01 0.020143 May-03 0.0147
Jun-01 0.026977 Jun-03 0.01942
Jul-01 0.021749 Jul-03 0.03007
Aug-01 0.018302 Aug-03 0.22568
Sep-01 0.041979 Sep-03 0.03508
Oct-01 0.034714 Oct-03 0.03118
Avg 0.0356 Avg 0.033
F test 0.83712
Interpretation:

60
.
MTNL (Monthly Standard Deviation):
MTNL
Nov-99 0.031828 Nov-01 0.01704
Dec-99 0.03348 Dec-01 0.02198
Jan-00 0.048372 Jan-02 0.01945
Feb-00 0.053976 Feb-02 0.04958
Mar-00 0.050902 Mar-02 0.02542
Apr-00 0.047497 Apr-02 0.027
May-00 0.038934 May-02 0.01987
Jun-00 0.047047 Jun-02 0.03388
Jul-00 0.023832 Jul-02 0.0184
Aug-00 0.025946 Aug-02 0.01916
Sep-00 0.034253 Sep-02 0.02242
Oct-00 0.024081 Oct-02 0.02911
Nov-00 0.042972 Nov-02 0.01779
Dec-00 0.027316 Dec-02 0.01984
Jan-01 0.032635 Jan-03 0.04744
Feb-01 0.033097 Feb-03 0.02554
Mar-01 0.05271 Mar-03 0.01403
Apr-01 0.025448 Apr-03 0.02364
May-01 0.019398 May-03 0.01844
Jun-01 0.023902 Jun-03 0.02307
Jul-01 0.012508 Jul-03 0.02889
Aug-01 0.019132 Aug-03 0.23563
Sep-01 0.041002 Sep-03 0.02777
Oct-01 0.019523 Oct-03 0.02011
Avg 0.0337 Avg 0.034
F test 0.98945
Interpretation:

61
.
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM (Monthly Standard Deviation):
NATIONALUM
Nov-99 0.031467 Nov-01 0.02499
Dec-99 0.057053 Dec-01 0.0113
Jan-00 0.022708 Jan-02 0.03748
Feb-00 0.012552 Feb-02 0.06248
Mar-00 0.035764 Mar-02 0.03959
Apr-00 0.062484 Apr-02 0.03176
May-00 0.038145 May-02 0.04293
Jun-00 0.033314 Jun-02 0.02843
Jul-00 0.026619 Jul-02 0.03851
Aug-00 0.042419 Aug-02 0.0208
Sep-00 0.033098 Sep-02 0.03634
Oct-00 0.027904 Oct-02 0.03019
Nov-00 0.036454 Nov-02 0.04465
Dec-00 0.029747 Dec-02 0.04978
Jan-01 0.038661 Jan-03 0.02165
Feb-01 0.054664 Feb-03 0.01563
Mar-01 0.023773 Mar-03 0.01247
Apr-01 0.020629 Apr-03 0.03047
May-01 0.010091 May-03 0.01884
Jun-01 0.023652 Jun-03 0.01628
Jul-01 0.026054 Jul-03 0.02411
Aug-01 0.021028 Aug-03 0.21669
Sep-01 0.195961 Sep-03 0.03152
Oct-01 0.056357 Oct-03 0.03483
Avg 0.04 Avg 0.038
F test 0.92072
Interpretation:

62
.
ONGC (Monthly Standard Deviation):
ONGC
Nov-99 0.03547 Nov-01 0.01406
Dec-99 0.014425 Dec-01 0.01626
Jan-00 0.03161 Jan-02 0.01984
Feb-00 0.03934 Feb-02 0.06056
Mar-00 0.033417 Mar-02 0.02164
Apr-00 0.041889 Apr-02 0.033
May-00 0.027579 May-02 0.03217
Jun-00 0.029254 Jun-02 0.01925
Jul-00 0.021677 Jul-02 0.0255
Aug-00 0.029205 Aug-02 0.01974
Sep-00 0.022249 Sep-02 0.01855
Oct-00 0.020041 Oct-02 0.02725
Nov-00 0.022762 Nov-02 0.02425
Dec-00 0.01547 Dec-02 0.00942
Jan-01 0.024503 Jan-03 0.01888
Feb-01 0.032797 Feb-03 0.00648
Mar-01 0.031073 Mar-03 0.00835
Apr-01 0.019102 Apr-03 0.00772
May-01 0.021377 May-03 0.018
Jun-01 0.029333 Jun-03 0.01875
Jul-01 0.030586 Jul-03 0.01457
Aug-01 0.016264 Aug-03 0.22234
Sep-01 0.031016 Sep-03 0.03861
Oct-01 0.01354 Oct-03 0.02
Avg 0.0264 Avg 0.03
F test 1.27258
Interpretation:

63
.
ORIENTAL BANK (Monthly Standard Deviation):
ORIENTBANK
Nov-99 0.009677 Nov-01 0.01242
Dec-99 0.032227 Dec-01 0.01478
Jan-00 0.014792 Jan-02 0.01039
Feb-00 0.029686 Feb-02 0.03687
Mar-00 0.024153 Mar-02 0.00991
Apr-00 0.033 Apr-02 0.01754
May-00 0.01497 May-02 0.01626
Jun-00 0.013495 Jun-02 0.0245
Jul-00 0.008148 Jul-02 0.02179
Aug-00 0.009325 Aug-02 0.00557
Sep-00 0.013664 Sep-02 0.01195
Oct-00 0.008171 Oct-02 0.01082
Nov-00 0.030855 Nov-02 0.00992
Dec-00 0.0188 Dec-02 0.01483
Jan-01 0.02312 Jan-03 0.04426
Feb-01 0.019218 Feb-03 0.02841
Mar-01 0.026149 Mar-03 0.02867
Apr-01 0.020179 Apr-03 0.03936
May-01 0.03132 May-03 0.05549
Jun-01 0.015785 Jun-03 0.03015
Jul-01 0.010865 Jul-03 0.03324
Aug-01 0.013415 Aug-03 0.23759
Sep-01 0.030501 Sep-03 0.04124
Oct-01 0.018341 Oct-03 0.04576
Avg 0.0196 Avg 0.033
F test 2.91141
Interpretation:
Since F-Test value is more than tabulated value, null hypothesis is rejected
and there is impact of stock futures on volatility of spot market.

64
.
RANBAXY (Monthly Standard Deviation):
RANBAXY
Nov-99 0.020824 Nov-01 0.01825
Dec-99 0.027845 Dec-01 0.01713
Jan-00 0.039572 Jan-02 0.01728
Feb-00 0.037334 Feb-02 0.0318
Mar-00 0.044932 Mar-02 0.01276
Apr-00 0.054228 Apr-02 0.01657
May-00 0.03023 May-02 0.02821
Jun-00 0.040103 Jun-02 0.02185
Jul-00 0.025845 Jul-02 0.01581
Aug-00 0.023335 Aug-02 0.00994
Sep-00 0.031808 Sep-02 0.08957
Oct-00 0.034641 Oct-02 0.01552
Nov-00 0.02496 Nov-02 0.01814
Dec-00 0.01933 Dec-02 0.01294
Jan-01 0.027025 Jan-03 0.01302
Feb-01 0.01184 Feb-03 0.00929
Mar-01 0.027552 Mar-03 0.01811
Apr-01 0.053916 Apr-03 0.01406
May-01 0.015914 May-03 0.01413
Jun-01 0.022213 Jun-03 0.01632
Jul-01 0.026566 Jul-03 0.00858
Aug-01 0.020808 Aug-03 0.22943
Sep-01 0.037926 Sep-03 0.0215
Oct-01 0.023018 Oct-03 0.01837
Avg 0.0301 Avg 0.029
F test 0.91024
Interpretation:

65
.
RELIANCE (Monthly Standard Deviation):
RELIANCE
Nov-99 0.015251 Nov-01 0.02657
Dec-99 0.027825 Dec-01 0.00791
Jan-00 0.039098 Jan-02 0.02849
Feb-00 0.023837 Feb-02 0.02277
Mar-00 0.060134 Mar-02 0.01629
Apr-00 0.055383 Apr-02 0.01689
May-00 0.021379 May-02 0.02348
Jun-00 0.014416 Jun-02 0.01581
Jul-00 0.02412 Jul-02 0.01705
Aug-00 0.009758 Aug-02 0.01735
Sep-00 0.02305 Sep-02 0.01365
Oct-00 0.01933 Oct-02 0.03393
Nov-00 0.015517 Nov-02 0.01384
Dec-00 0.013596 Dec-02 0.00936
Jan-01 0.017328 Jan-03 0.01719
Feb-01 0.013793 Feb-03 0.01348
Mar-01 0.029333 Mar-03 0.01885
Apr-01 0.048394 Apr-03 0.01954
May-01 0.015988 May-03 0.01516
Jun-01 0.018841 Jun-03 0.02124
Jul-01 0.024615 Jul-03 0.01544
Aug-01 0.01701 Aug-03 0.23015
Sep-01 0.053019 Sep-03 0.02188
Oct-01 0.022535 Oct-03 0.01997
Avg 0.026 Avg 0.027
F test 1.10778
Interpretation:

66
.
SAIL (Monthly Standard Deviation):
SAIL
Nov-99 0.052912 Nov-01 0.01466
Dec-99 0.04544 Dec-01 0.01868
Jan-00 0.038392 Jan-02 0.0145
Feb-00 0.075401 Feb-02 0.06511
Mar-00 0.038366 Mar-02 0.01686
Apr-00 0.074827 Apr-02 0.01358
May-00 0.018613 May-02 0.07117
Jun-00 0.031826 Jun-02 0.04006
Jul-00 0.020377 Jul-02 0.03375
Aug-00 0.015087 Aug-02 0.02512
Sep-00 0.035057 Sep-02 0.02878
Oct-00 0.016894 Oct-02 0.03737
Nov-00 0.035156 Nov-02 0.01842
Dec-00 0.028539 Dec-02 0.03078
Jan-01 0.02858 Jan-03 0.03777
Feb-01 0.044188 Feb-03 0.03016
Mar-01 0.066507 Mar-03 0.02982
Apr-01 0.034041 Apr-03 0.02001
May-01 0.017938 May-03 0.03302
Jun-01 0.0099 Jun-03 0.04551
Jul-01 0.011152 Jul-03 0.0285
Aug-01 0.007568 Aug-03 0.26388
Sep-01 0.03463 Sep-03 0.0443
Oct-01 0.017284 Oct-03 0.03544
Avg 0.0333 Avg 0.042
F test 1.55911
Interpretation:

67
.
SBIN (Monthly Standard Deviation):
SBIN
Nov-99 0.01542 Nov-01 0.01755
Dec-99 0.027103 Dec-01 0.02733
Jan-00 0.041016 Jan-02 0.03106
Feb-00 0.031623 Feb-02 0.04661
Mar-00 0.048873 Mar-02 0.01918
Apr-00 0.042753 Apr-02 0.0119
May-00 0.019315 May-02 0.00867
Jun-00 0.023967 Jun-02 0.01865
Jul-00 0.026665 Jul-02 0.01342
Aug-00 0.009479 Aug-02 0.00951
Sep-00 0.019941 Sep-02 0.00758
Oct-00 0.015959 Oct-02 0.01004
Nov-00 0.021699 Nov-02 0.01267
Dec-00 0.022224 Dec-02 0.01826
Jan-01 0.025069 Jan-03 0.01773
Feb-01 0.032344 Feb-03 0.02425
Mar-01 0.031006 Mar-03 0.01247
Apr-01 0.022749 Apr-03 0.01422
May-01 0.023028 May-03 0.01717
Jun-01 0.022631 Jun-03 0.01483
Jul-01 0.016337 Jul-03 0.02084
Aug-01 0.011744 Aug-03 0.23592
Sep-01 0.040869 Sep-03 0.02501
Oct-01 0.0137 Oct-03 0.01889
Avg 0.0252 Avg 0.027
F test 1.16576
Interpretation:

68
.
SIEMENS (Monthly Standard Deviation):
SIEMENS
Nov-99 0.035012 Nov-01 0.00635
Dec-99 0.034628 Dec-01 0.01271
Jan-00 0.040145 Jan-02 0.01717
Feb-00 0.038747 Feb-02 0.05034
Mar-00 0.043309 Mar-02 0.01962
Apr-00 0.048637 Apr-02 0.02565
May-00 0.032581 May-02 0.02325
Jun-00 0.021274 Jun-02 0.02214
Jul-00 0.027869 Jul-02 0.01754
Aug-00 0.012284 Aug-02 0.0057
Sep-00 0.022266 Sep-02 0.01168
Oct-00 0.020402 Oct-02 0.01454
Nov-00 0.030694 Nov-02 0.02748
Dec-00 0.023308 Dec-02 0.01861
Jan-01 0.024398 Jan-03 0.02082
Feb-01 0.016183 Feb-03 0.01469
Mar-01 0.029806 Mar-03 0.00839
Apr-01 0.024485 Apr-03 0.01536
May-01 0.035767 May-03 0.02161
Jun-01 0.014194 Jun-03 0.0176
Jul-01 0.023342 Jul-03 0.01724
Aug-01 0.019962 Aug-03 0.23226
Sep-01 0.023672 Sep-03 0.01444
Oct-01 0.012666 Oct-03 0.02174
Avg 0.0273 Avg 0.027
F test 1.00389
Interpretation:

69
.
SUN PHARMA (Monthly Standard Deviation):
SUNPHARMA
Nov-99 0.049729 Nov-01 0.00894
Dec-99 0.038702 Dec-01 0.01724
Jan-00 0.049957 Jan-02 0.02086
Feb-00 0.051104 Feb-02 0.0107
Mar-00 0.249295 Mar-02 0.01216
Apr-00 0.064336 Apr-02 0.01763
May-00 0.059056 May-02 0.02202
Jun-00 0.053032 Jun-02 0.01171
Jul-00 0.025598 Jul-02 0.00854
Aug-00 0.02343 Aug-02 0.01296
Sep-00 0.040557 Sep-02 0.01082
Oct-00 0.038108 Oct-02 0.01455
Nov-00 0.021374 Nov-02 0.00963
Dec-00 0.020883 Dec-02 0.00914
Jan-01 0.021296 Jan-03 0.14505
Feb-01 0.007044 Feb-03 0.00942
Mar-01 0.050001 Mar-03 0.02036
Apr-01 0.028793 Apr-03 0.01425
May-01 0.030785 May-03 0.0143
Jun-01 0.017116 Jun-03 0.03058
Jul-01 0.027854 Jul-03 0.02511
Aug-01 0.014155 Aug-03 0.23952
Sep-01 0.035342 Sep-03 0.03361
Oct-01 0.02205 Oct-03 0.02044
Avg 0.0433 Avg 0.031
F test 0.50608
Interpretation:

70
.
TATA POWER (Monthly Standard Deviation):
TATAPOWER
Nov-99 0.017018 Nov-01 0.02297
Dec-99 0.019065 Dec-01 0.03275
Jan-00 0.032276 Jan-02 0.02128
Feb-00 0.036286 Feb-02 0.03271
Mar-00 0.037143 Mar-02 0.01068
Apr-00 0.028104 Apr-02 0.01878
May-00 0.015558 May-02 0.01812
Jun-00 0.054935 Jun-02 0.02083
Jul-00 0.026615 Jul-02 0.01251
Aug-00 0.026579 Aug-02 0.02022
Sep-00 0.0164 Sep-02 0.00796
Oct-00 0.0272 Oct-02 0.01368
Nov-00 0.019395 Nov-02 0.00974
Dec-00 0.033303 Dec-02 0.01157
Jan-01 0.031681 Jan-03 0.01416
Feb-01 0.052747 Feb-03 0.01364
Mar-01 0.079372 Mar-03 0.01498
Apr-01 0.037312 Apr-03 0.01552
May-01 0.02851 May-03 0.01391
Jun-01 0.035211 Jun-03 0.0158
Jul-01 0.033514 Jul-03 0.02593
Aug-01 0.015507 Aug-03 0.23869
Sep-01 0.023289 Sep-03 0.02953
Oct-01 0.028711 Oct-03 0.02573
Avg 0.0315 Avg 0.028
F test 0.76657
Interpretation:

71
.
VSNL (Monthly Standard Deviation):
VSNL
Nov-99 0.046269 Nov-01 0.12746
Dec-99 0.063825 Dec-01 0.03183
Jan-00 0.031741 Jan-02 0.10231
Feb-00 0.037092 Feb-02 0.02521
Mar-00 0.238654 Mar-02 0.01189
Apr-00 0.057014 Apr-02 0.00766
May-00 0.046068 May-02 0.02433
Jun-00 0.048518 Jun-02 0.02577
Jul-00 0.0283 Jul-02 0.03078
Aug-00 0.030995 Aug-02 0.01218
Sep-00 0.024609 Sep-02 0.01404
Oct-00 0.022757 Oct-02 0.01659
Nov-00 0.030404 Nov-02 0.02686
Dec-00 0.024505 Dec-02 0.01743
Jan-01 0.069399 Jan-03 0.02706

Feb-01 0.021434 Feb-03 0.01722
Mar-01 0.033792 Mar-03 0.01799
Apr-01 0.032409 Apr-03 0.02016
May-01 0.099056 May-03 0.02339
Jun-01 0.033983 Jun-03 0.02129
Jul-01 0.01178 Jul-03 0.03046
Aug-01 0.005291 Aug-03 0.23375
Sep-01 0.024633 Sep-03 0.01449
Oct-01 0.022205 Oct-03 0.01809
Avg 0.0452 Avg 0.037
F test 0.68573
Interpretation:

72
.
WIPRO TECHNOLOGIES (Monthly Standard Deviation):
WIPRO
Nov-99 0.037218 Nov-01 0.0453
Dec-99 0.041367 Dec-01 0.05261
Jan-00 0.056971 Jan-02 0.03998
Feb-00 0.069231 Feb-02 0.02921
Mar-00 0.069297 Mar-02 0.02149
Apr-00 0.066765 Apr-02 0.03838
May-00 0.074267 May-02 0.01501
Jun-00 0.050016 Jun-02 0.01707
Jul-00 0.038833 Jul-02 0.02707
Aug-00 0.045148 Aug-02 0.02505
Sep-00 0.047787 Sep-02 0.05121
Oct-00 0.051625 Oct-02 0.01937
Nov-00 0.035252 Nov-02 0.01914
Dec-00 0.033864 Dec-02 0.02975
Jan-01 0.048109 Jan-03 0.02497
Feb-01 0.045741 Feb-03 0.01795
Mar-01 0.076953 Mar-03 0.0161
Apr-01 0.094272 Apr-03 0.05523
May-01 0.035925 May-03 0.02545
Jun-01 0.045854 Jun-03 0.02066
Jul-01 0.033801 Jul-03 0.0312
Aug-01 0.031613 Aug-03 0.22237
Sep-01 0.079972 Sep-03 0.03932
Oct-01 0.044276 Oct-03 0.03113
Avg 0.0523 Avg 0.038
F test 0.5323
Interpretation:

73
.
4.3 Interpretation:
The tables above show the calculations of monthly standard deviation of all 40
companies for prior and after introduction of stock futures. Then the average of
standard deviation is calculated for prior and after introduction. The F -test is
computed on the average standard deviation. If the F-test value is less than
tabulated value, the null hypothesis is accepted which implies that the introduction
of stock futures has no impact on spot market volatility.

74
.

75
.
CHAPTER-V
Conclusion:
The study was conducted to examine the impact of stock futures
on the spot market volatility of Nifty. F-test has been done to examine
the changes in volatility with the help of monthly standard deviations.
The F-test value is less than the tabulated value so the null hypothesis
has been accepted which emphasis on the fact that the introduction of
stock futures didn’t affected the spot market volatility of Nifty. Fourty
(40) companies are selected from CNX Nifty Index, in which 38
companies F-test value is less than tabulated value and 2 companies F-
test value is greater than the tabulated value, which is statistically
significant. From this we can infer that the there is no impact of
introduction of stock futures on spot market volatility.
The volatility of the market is influence by Index Future, Index
Option, Future option and other uncontrollable factors which lead to
the further research work.

76
.

77
.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
REFERNCE BOOKS:
¾ Basic Econometrics - Damodar N.Gujarati, (fourth edition)
WEBSITES:
¾ www.nseindia.com
¾ www.finance.yahoo.com
¾ www.google.com
¾ www.investorpedia.com
REFERNCE ARTICLES:
¾ Impact of futures introduction on underlying index volatality: evidence

from India - kotha kiran kumar. & chiranjit mukhopadhyay
¾ Behaviour of stock market volatility after derivatives - golaka c nath
¾ Do futures and options trading increase stock market volatility? Dr.
premalata shenbagaraman
¾ Effect of introduction of index futures on stock market volatility: the
indian
evidence - o.p. gupta
¾ Impact of financial derivatives products on spot market volatility: A study
on Nifty. – S V Ramana rao

78

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“Impact of Stock Futures on Spot Market Volatility: A Study on Nifty”

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

I hereby declare that this dissertation entitled “IMPACT OF

I also declare that this dissertation has not been submitted

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

I hereby certify that this dissertation entitled “IMPACT OF

Place: Bangalore Dr N.S.

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

I hereby certify that this dissertation entitled “IMPACT OF

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my research guide

I would like to thank DR. T.V. NARSHIMA RAO, Adjunct

I would also like to thank PROF. S. SANTHANAM, Adjunct

And further I would like to thank all the faculty members of

I would like to sincerely thank my Parents and all my Friends

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

CHAPTERS PARTICULARS PAGE NO

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M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

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1.1 Background of the Study:

1.2 Derivatives market at NSE:

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1.3 Trading mechanism:

1.4 Importance of the study:

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increase with the derivatives products because of speculation and arbitrage

The present paper attempts to study the impact of introduction of stock

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M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE:

In contrast, models developed by Danthine (1978) argue that the futures

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BEHAVIOUR OF STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AFTER

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Standard deviation of returns is calculated using the following methods:

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DATA and DATA CHARACTERISTICS

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EFFECT OF INTRODUCTION OF INDEX FUTURES ON

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

seems to be complete day volatility. It has been estimated by using Parkinson’s

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

futures volatility is higher (lower) in comparison to the underlying stock market

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DO FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING INCREASE STOCK

“The safety and cheapness of communications, which enable a deficiency

Since futures encourage speculation, the debate on the impact of speculators

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M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

M.P.Birla Institute of Management, Bangalore

Impact of Financial Derivative Products on Spot Market

The impact of derivatives on the cash market volatility is a much debated

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The present paper attempts to study the impact of introduction of index

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ordinary least square technique. To examine the impact of derivative products on

Nt =β0 + β1 Nifty 500 + β2 Dt

Using the above methodology, the following hypothesis was tested.

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