Introduc) On To Produc) On Planning and Fixed Planning Horizons

CTL.
SC2x -Supply Chain Design
Introduc)on to Produc)on Planning

and Fixed Planning Horizons
MIT Center for

Transportation & Logistics
Over-‐Arching Ques)on
How should we use informa)on to coordinate the
different ac)vi)es of the various players in the
supply chain?
Firm
Customer
Supplier
SRM ISCM CRM

“source” “make, move, store” “sell”
Supplier / Vendor Internal Produc)on Customer Demand

Management Management Management
CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 2

Supply Chain Integration
Inventory Deployment
Materials Physical
Management Distribution
Vendor Procurement Production Marketing Customer
MRP MRP MRP MPS DRP DRP DRP
Information / Planning
Material Requirements Planning

Master Production Scheduling
Distribution Requirements Planning
CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning
MRP / DRP Integration
Purchase Orders
C C C C C C C C
SA SA SA SA
MRP
A A
MPS Product
CDC
DRP RDC RDC
Retail Retail Retail Retail
Sales/Marketing Plan

Master Produc)on Schedule

What is the Master Produc)on Schedule?
•  The MPS:
n  is the basic communica)on between the market and manufacturing.
n  is a statement of PRODUCTION not of the DEMAND.
w  Produc)on might lag or lead forecasted demand
w  Produc)on might be in batches when demand is eaches
n  is a plan to meet the forecasted demand, not a forecast of demand.
n  translates S&OP of a firm into a manufacturing plan in terms of
quan))es and )ming.
n  shows when products will be available in the future – when sales can
promise them to customers.
n  )es together the produc)on and the sales.
n  statement of planned future output for the firm.

Manufacturing Strategy
Delivery Lead Time
Engineer Design Procure Manufacture Assemble Deliver
to Order
Delivery Lead Time

Make Procure Inventory Manufacture Assemble Deliver
to Order
Delivery Lead Time

Assemble Procure Manufacture Inventory Assemble Deliver
to Order
Delivery
Lead Time
Make
Procure Manufacture Assemble Inventory Deliver
to Stock
Adapted from Arnold, Chapman, Clyde (2012)
Time Phased Record
The MPS connects the forecast, the produc)on plan,
and the expected inventory level or balance.
Given: Current inventory level Given: Forecast of demand by period
Calculated: Expected inventory a

Entered: Production plan to the END of period 1
be made during that period
It = It-1 + Pt – Ft
Two classic “pure” strategies: Level and Chase

Level Produc)on Strategy
•  Objec)ve: Keep produc)on level throughout by manufacturing
average demand each period
•  Produc)on in Period t = Pt= (ΣFt – I0 )/n

Level Produc)on Strategy
•  Objec)ve: Keep produc)on level throughout by manufacturing
average demand each period
•  Produc)on in Period t = Pt= (ΣFt – I0 )/n
Pro’s
•  Smooth and stable produc)on opera)ons for labor
•  Avoid change or switching costs
•  Minimizes need for extra capacity
Con’s
•  Can lead to excessive inventory build up in low-‐demand periods
•  Can result in shortages during peak demand periods

Chase Produc)on Strategy
•  Objec)ve: Match produc)on level to the demand each period
•  Produc)on in Period t = Pt= Ft
-‐ given that desired Inventory level is met

Chase Produc)on Strategy
•  Objec)ve: Match produc)on level to the demand each period
•  Produc)on in Period t = Pt= Ft
-‐ given that desired Inventory level is met
Pro’s
•  Inventory is kept to a minimum
•  Product is made when required – minimizes obsolesence
Con’s
•  Can lead to wild swings in produc)on & labor needs
•  Requires firm to have capacity equal to peak demand
•  U)liza)on of equipment will be very inconsistent
Produc)on Strategies
•  Pure Strategies
n  Level – stable produc)on => varying inventory
n  Chase – varying produc)on => stable inventory
•  Hybrid Strategies
n  Outsourcing/Subcontrac)ng
w  Keep level produc)on in-‐house
w  Outsource the variable component of demand
n  Op)mal Cost Trade-‐offs
w  Lot Sizing
w  Fixed Planning Horizon

Fixed Planning Horizon Problem

Fixed Planning Horizon Problem
Find the production plan that minimizes total costs given . . .
•  Demand •  Discounts
n  Constant vs Variable n  None
n  Known vs Random n  All Units or Incremental
n  Con.nuous vs Discrete •  Excess Demand
•  Lead )me n  None
n  Instantaneous n  All orders are backordered
n  Constant or Variable (determinis)c/ n  Lost orders
stochas)c) n  Subs)tu)on
•  Dependence of items •  Perishability
n  Independent n  None
n  Correlated n  Uniform with )me
n  Indentured •  Planning Horizon
•  Review Time n  Single Period
n  Con.nuous n  Finite Period
n  Periodic n  Infinite
•  Number of Echelons •  Number of Items
n  One n  One
n  Mul) (>1) n  Many
•  Capacity / Resources •  Form of Product
n  Unlimited n  Single Stage
n  Limited / Constrained n  Mul)-‐Stage
Example: Queenstown Gyroscopes
Your company, Queenstown Gyroscopes, Month Demand
has just received a one year contract with 1 200
Aussie Satellite Systems to provide 2,000 2 150
of your special Kiwi-99 gyroscopes. 3 100
The contract stipulates the exact number of 4 50
gyroscopes to be shipped to them each 5 50
month of the 12 month contract. 6 100
7 150
8 200
9 200
10 250
11 300
12 250
Total: 2,000
Example: Queenstown Gyroscopes
•  Costs
n  Produc)on Set Up Cost 500 $/run
n  Cost per Gyroscope 50 $/item
n  Holding Charge 0.24 $/$/year
w  Thus holding cost = 1.00 $/item/month
•  Other Informa)on
n  Gyroscopes manufactured in a period are ready for use in that period
n  Gyroscopes accrue no holding costs if consumed in same month they
are produced, but accrue for future months
•  Objec)ve:
n  Find the lowest cost produc)on plan for Kiwi-‐99 gyroscopes for the 12
month contract.

Approaches for Solving the FPH Problem
•  Simple Heuris)cs
n  One Time Run
n  Lot for Lot (Chase)
n  Fixed EOQ
n  Periodic Order Quan)ty
•  Specialized Heuris)cs
n  Least Period Cost (Silver-‐Meal)
n  Least Unit Cost
n  Part-‐Period Balancing
•  Op)mal Methods
n  Wagner-‐Whi)n
n  Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP)

Simple Heuris)cs for FPH

•  Simple Heuris)cs
n  One Time Run
n  Lot for Lot (Chase)
n  Fixed EOQ (FOQ)
n  Periodic Order Quan)ty (POQ)

One Time Run
Manufacture all 2000
gyroscopes in Month 1

Lot for Lot
Each month manufacture
the number of gyroscopes
forecasted for that month

Fixed Order
Quan)ty
Order Q* if Ft>IOH
Q*~400 units
(Q is stable, T varies)

Periodic Order
Quan)ty
Order sum of forecasts
every ~T* periods
(T is stable, Q varies)

Comparing Simple Heuris)c Approaches
Inventory Set-‐Up Total Avg Monthly Inventory
Costs Costs Costs IOH Turns
One Time Run $13,100 $500 $13,600 1,092 1.83
Lot for Lot $0 $6,000 $6,000 0 infinite
FOQ $1,900 $2,500 $4,400 158.3 12.6
POQ $2,000 $2,000 $4,000 166.7 12
AIOH = Total Inventory / 12 IT = D / AIOH
Pro’s
•  Very simple to implement and very fast!
Con’s
•  No guarantee of op)mality or proximity
•  Single dimension -‐ tend to reduce either inventory or set ups
Specialized Heuris)cs for FPH

•  Specialized Heuris)cs
n  Silver-‐Meal (Least Cost Period)
n  Least Unit Cost (LUC)
n  Part-‐Period Balancing (PPB)

Silver-‐Meal Algorithm
•  The basic idea:
n  Make the next period’s forecasted demand this period if it
reduces the average cost per period.
n  Minimize TRC per unit )me (TRCUT) = TRCt/n
n  The algorithm
1.  Start at t=1
2.  Set n = 0
3.  Calculate TRCUTt+n
4.  Set n = n + 1
6.  If TRCUTt+n > TRCUTt+n-‐1 then
a.  Place an order in )me period t for the quan)ty
equal to the forecast demand of periods t to t+n-‐1
b.  Set t = t+n go to Step 2
7.  Else, go to Step 4
1.  Start at t=1
2.  Set n = 0
Set up 500 $/run 4.  Set n = n + 1
Holding 1 $/item/mon 5.  Calculate TRCUTt+n
a.  Make Sum(Ft to Ft+n-‐1) in t
1 0 TRCUT(1) = (500+0)/1 = 500 Make 200 in month 1 – no holding costs
1 1 TRCUT(2) = (500+150)/2 = 325 Make 350 in month 1, hold 150 for 1 month
1 2 TRCUT(3) = Make 450 in month 1, hold 150 for 1 month, and 100
(500+150+2(100))/3 = 283 for 2 months
1 3 TRCUT(4) = Make 500 in month 1, hold 150 for 1 month, 100 for
(500+150+2(100)+3(50))/4 = 250 2 months, and 50 for 3 months
1 4 TRCUT(5) = Make 550 in month 1, hold 150 for 1 month, 100 for
(500+150+2(100)+3(50)+4(50))/5 = 240 2 months, 50 for 3 months, and 50 for 4 months
1 5 TRCUT(6) = (500+150+2(100)+3(50) Make 650 in month 1, hold 150 for 1 month, 100 for
+4(50)+5(100))/6 = 283 2 months, 50 for 3 months, 50 for 4 months, and 100
for 5 months.
1 5
TRCUT(6) > TRCUT(5) so: Set t=6, Go to Step 2 – so we now want to determine
Make
CTL.SC2x - Supply 550 units in Month 1. Lesson:
Chain Design how much to make in month 6
Production Planning 29
1.  Start at t=1
2.  Set n = 0
Set up 500 $/run 4.  Set n = n + 1
6 2 TRCUT(8) = (500+150+2(200))/3 = 350 Make 450 in month 6, hold 150 for 1 month, and 200
for 2 months
6 2 TRCUT(8) > TRCUT(7) so: Set t=8, Go to Step 2 – so we now want to determine
Make 250 units in Month 6. how much to make in month 8
8 2 TRCUT(10) = (500+200+2(250))/3 = 400 Make 650 in month 8, hold 200 for 1 month, and 250
for 2 months
8 2 TRCUT(10) > TRCUT(9) so: Set t=10, Go to Step 2 – so we now want to
Make 400 units in Month 8. determine how much to make in month 10
1.  Start at t=1
2.  Set n = 0
Set up 500 $/run 4.  Set n = n + 1
10 2 TRCUT(12) = (500+300+2(250))/3 = 433 Make 800 in month 10, hold 300 for 1 month, and
250 for 2 months
10 2 TRCUT(12) > TRCUT(11) so: Set t=12, Go to Step 2 – so we now want to
Make 550 units in Month 10. determine how much to make in month 12
12 0 Make 250 units in Month 12. Make the remaining amount.
Production Plan
•  Produce 550 in month 1 •  Produce 550 in month 10
•  Produce 250 in month 6 •  Produce 250 in month 12
•  Produce 400 in month 8
Silver-‐Meal
Algorithm
Order to minimize
cost per unit )me
(T and Q vary)

Comparing Heuris)c Approaches
Inventory Set-‐Up Total Avg Monthly Inventory
Costs Costs Costs IOH Turns
One Time Run $13,100 $500 $13,600 1,092 1.83
Lot for Lot $0 $6,000 $6,000 0 infinite
FOQ $1,900 $2,500 $4,400 158.3 12.6
POQ $2,000 $2,000 $4,000 166.7 12
Silver-‐Meal $1,350 $2,500 $3,850 112.5 17.8
Pro’s
•  Simple to implement and SM tends to lead to beter solu)ons
Con’s
•  No guarantee of op)mality or proximity

Op)mal Methods for FPH Problem
Wagner-‐Whi)n
MILP

Algorithm for Wagner-Whitin
•  Wagner Whi)n Algorithm
n  An applica)on of dynamic programming
n  Guarantees to find the minimum of set up and inventory costs
•  Relies on Two Key Proper)es

n  Zero Inventory Ordering Property exists
w  We will only order when there is no inventory on-‐hand
w  Replenishments arrive at start of period, shortages are not allowed, demand is
determinis)c
n  There is an upper limit on holding )me for demand
w  If cost of holding an item for a number of periods exceeds the set-‐up cost
w  Condi)on: D(j) > ctce for our example 500 units.

Algorithm for Wagner-Whitin
•  Rough Algorithm (Forward & Backward)
1.  Start at )me t=1
2.  Find cost for ordering just enough to sa)sfy demand in
period t, D(t).
3.  Look at all past orders (un)l t=1) and find cost for
ordering enough for D(t) by adding it onto an exis)ng
previous order for D(t-‐1).
4.  Pick lowest cost of op)ons – Go to next t un)l t-‐N.
5.  At t=N work backwards from period N finding lowest cost
op)ons for sa)sfying each D(t)

Wagner-‐Whi)n (forward)
2.  Find cost for D(t).
3.  Find cost for ordering enough for
Set up 500 $/run
Holding 1 $/item/mon D(t) by adding it to exis)ng
4.  Pick lowest cost of op)ons – Go to
next t un)l t-‐N.
5.  At t=N work backwards to find
lowest cost op)ons for each D(t).
1 Op)on #1: Make 200 units for D(1) There are no other op)ons
TC = $500
2 Op)on #1: Make enough in Period 1 for D(1 & 2) There are two op)ons.
TC = 500 + (1)150 = $650 Op)on #1 is the best current
Op)on #2: Best Period 1 Plan + Make enough for D(2) solu)on.
TC = 500 + 500 = $1000
3 Op)on #1: Make enough in Period 1 to cover D(1, 2, & 3) There are three op)ons.
TC = 500 + (1)150 + (2)100 = $850 Op)on #1 is the best current
Op)on #2: Best Period 1 Plan + Make enough in 2 for D(2) & D(3) op)on.
TC = 500 + 500 + (1)100 = $1100
Op)on #3: Best Period 2 Plan + Make enough for D(3)
TC = 650 + 500 = $1150
Wagner-‐Whi)n (forward)
Set up 500 $/run
next t un)l t-‐N.
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demand 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 200 250 300 250
1 Order 1 $500 $650 $850 $1,000 $1,200 $1,700 $2,600 $4,000 $5,600 $7,850 $10,850 $13,600
2 Order 2 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,350 $1,750 $2,500 $3,700 $5,100 $7,100 $9,800 $12,300
3 Order 3 $1,150 $1,200 $1,300 $1,600 $2,200 $3,200 $4,400 $6,150 $8,550 $10,800
4 Order 4 $1,350 $1,400 $1,600 $2,050 $2,850 $3,850 $5,350 $7,450 $9,450
5 Order 5 $1,500 $1,600 $1,900 $2,500 $3,300 $4,550 $6,350 $8,100
6 Order 6 $1,700 $1,850 $2,250 $2,850 $3,850 $5,350 $6,850
7 Order 7 $2,100 $2,300 $2,700 $3,450 $4,650 $5,900
8 Order 8 $2,350 $2,550 $3,050 $3,950 $4,950
9 Order 9 $2,750 $3,000 $3,600 $4,350
10 Order 10 $3,050 $3,350 $3,850
11 Order 11 $3,500 $3,750
12 Order 12 $3,850

Wagner-‐Whi)n (backward)
Set up 500 $/run
next t un)l t-‐N.
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demand 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 200 250 300 250
1 Order 1 $500 $650 $850 $1,000 $1,200 $1,700 $2,600 $4,000 $5,600 $7,850 $10,850 $13,600
2 Order 2 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,350 $1,750 $2,500 $3,700 $5,100 $7,100 $9,800 $12,300
3 Order 3 $1,150 $1,200 $1,300 $1,600 $2,200 $3,200 $4,400 $6,150 $8,550 $10,800
4 Order 4 $1,350 $1,400 $1,600 $2,050 $2,850 $3,850 $5,350 $7,450 $9,450
5 Order 5 $1,500 $1,600 $1,900 $2,500 $3,300 $4,550 $6,350 $8,100
6 Order 6 $1,700 $1,850 $2,250 $2,850 $3,850 $5,350 $6,850
7 Order 7 $2,100 $2,300 $2,700 $3,450 $4,650 $5,900
8 Order 8 $2,350 $2,550 $3,050 $3,950 $4,950
9 Order 9 Optimal Production Plan: $2,750 $3,000 $3,600 $4,350
10 Order 10 Make 550 in period 1, 450 in period 6, $3,050 $3,350 $3,850
11 Order 11 450 in period 9, and 550 in period 11 $3,500 $3,750
12 Order 12 $3,850

Wagner-‐Whi)n
Algorithm
Order to minimize average
cost per unit )me
(T and Q vary)

Op)mal Methods for FPH Problem
Wagner-‐Whi)n
MILP

Produc)on Planning MILP
Set up Costs
Min z = ∑ csetup Z t + ∑ hI t Holding Costs

t t
s.t.
I0 = 0 Conservation of Flow or Inventory Balance
constraint for time period t.
Qt − Dt + I t−1 − I t = 0 ∀t ∈ T
Linking/logical constraint ensuring binary flag
MZ t − Qt ≥ 0 ∀t ∈ T for a time period is ON if we manufacture any
quantity during that time period.
Qt ≤ CAPt ∀t ∈ T
I t ,Qt ≥ 0 ∀t ∈ T Maximum capacity constraint for time period
t.
Z t = {0,1} ∀t ∈ T
Decision Variables
Qt = Quantity produced in time period t (units) ∀t
Z t = 1 if manufacture in time period t, = 0 o.w. ∀t
Input Data
CAPt = Manufacturing capacity for time period t (units) ∀t ∈ T
Dt = Demand for time period t (units) ∀t ∈ T
I t = Inventory at end of time period t (units) ∀t ∈ T
csetup = Cost to make a production run ($/run)
h = Inventory holding cost for one time period ($/unit/time period)
M = Large number
Produc)on Planning MILP -‐ Formula)on

Produc)on Planning MILP -‐ Formula)on
Optimal Order Policy:

Order 550 in period 1, 450 in period 6,
450 in period 9, and 550 in period 11

Comparing Approaches

Comparison of Approaches
Mon Demand 1TB L4L EOQ POQ Optimal SM LUC PBB
1 200 2000 200 400 450 550 550 350 500
2 150 0 150 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 100 0 100 400 0 0 0 300 0
4 50 0 50 0 200 0 0 0 0
5 50 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 300
6 100 0 100 0 0 450 250 0 0
7 150 0 150 0 550 0 0 350 0
8 200 0 200 400 0 0 400 0 650
9 200 0 200 0 0 450 0 450 0
10 250 0 250 400 800 0 550 0 0
11 300 0 300 400 0 550 0 550 550
12 250 0 250 0 0 0 250 0 0
Holding Cost $13,100 $- $1,900 $2,000 $1,750 $1,350 $1,500 $1,850

Order Cost $500 $6,000 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000
Total Cost $13,600 $6,000 $4,400 $4,000 $3,750 $3,850 $4,000 $3,850
Inv TurnOver 1.83 Inf 12.60 12.00 13.70 17.80 13.00 13.00
Pct > Optimal 263% 60% 17% 7% 0% 3% 7% 3%

Comparing Different FPH Models
•  There are many methods available :
n  Heuristics are fast and easy to implement, but are not always
good
n  Specialty heuristics are more sophisticated, a bit harder to set
up, but tend to give us better ‘real-world’ results
n  Optimal methods require more time and data, allow for
introduction of other constraints, and give the optimal solution
but…
w  They assume perfect forecast information
w  They treat today’s data equally to next year’s
w  The optimal production plan is based on all data
•  When forecasts exhibit significant change, myopic

heuristics (like SM) might perform better!

Key Take Aways

Key Take Aways
•  Systems to manage flow of informa)on for produc)on:
n  Master Planning Schedule (MPS)
n  Material Requirements Plan (MRP)
n  Distribu)on Requirements Plan (DRP)
•  Manufacturing strategy influences the plan
n  Chase versus Level versus Hybrid
•  Fixed Planning Horizon (FPH) or Lot Sizing
n  Heuris)cs versus Op)mal Models

CTL.SC2x -Supply Chain Design
Questions, Comments, Suggestions?
Use the Discussion!
“Wilson – upon learning that the Silver-Meal algorithm has nothing to do with food”
Yankee Golden Retriever Rescued Dog (www.ygrr.org)
MIT Center for

Transportation & Logistics caplice@mit.edu
Images
•  Slide 16
n  "Gyroscope opera)on". Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -‐ htps://
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gyroscope_opera)on.gif#/media/File:Gyroscope_opera)on.gif

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CTL.

SC2x -Supply Chain Design

Introduc)on to Produc)on Planning

MIT Center for

SRM ISCM CRM

Supplier / Vendor Internal Produc)on Customer Demand

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 2

Vendor Procurement Production Marketing Customer

MRP MRP MRP MPS DRP DRP DRP

Material Requirements Planning

DRP RDC RDC

Retail Retail Retail Retail

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 5

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 6

Delivery Lead Time

Delivery Lead Time

Calculated: Expected inventory a

Two classic “pure” strategies: Level and Chase

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 9

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 10

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 11

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CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 17

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 18

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 19

n Fixed EOQ (FOQ)

n Periodic Order Quan)ty (POQ)

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 20

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 21

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 22

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 23

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 24

AIOH = Total Inventory / 12 IT = D / AIOH

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 26

n Part-­‐Period Balancing (PPB)

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 27

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 32

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 34

• Relies on Two Key Proper)es

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 35

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 36

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CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 40

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 41

Min z = ∑ csetup Z t + ∑ hI t Holding Costs

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning

Optimal Order Policy:

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 45

Holding Cost $13,100 $- $1,900 $2,000 $1,750 $1,350 $1,500 $1,850

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 46

• When forecasts exhibit significant change, myopic

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 47

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MIT Center for

CTL.SC2x - Supply Chain Design Lesson: Production Planning 51

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n  Fixed EOQ (FOQ)

n  Periodic Order Quan)ty (POQ)

n  Part-‐Period Balancing (PPB)

•  Relies on Two Key Proper)es

•  When forecasts exhibit significant change, myopic