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Laurus Labs
Estimate change CMP: INR430 TP: INR520 (+21%) Buy
TP change Strong traction in formulations drive earnings
Rating change
Forward integration benefits gain momentum; ARV-API to revive
gradually
Bloomberg LAURUS IN
After two years of earnings decline, Laurus Labs (LAURUS) witnessed strong
Equity Shares (m) 106
improvement in operational performance, largely led by traction in the
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 46 / 0.6
formulation business. This benefit was offset to some extent by the decline
52-Week Range (INR) 460 / 298
in the ARV-API business.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 18/17/4
We expect the formulation business to gain further momentum led by
12M Avg Val (INR M) 51
higher capacity/ANDA pipeline build-up for the US market. New molecules
would enable the arrest of the current downfall in the ARV-API segment.
Financials & Valuations (INR b) We raise our EPS estimates by 30%/12.6%/9.8% for FY20/FY21/FY22 to
Y/E MARCH 2020E 2021E 2022E
factor in superior execution in the formulation/other API segment. Re-
Sales 27.3 31.8 36.1
EBITDA 5.2 6.3 7.4
iterate Buy.
Adj. PAT 2.1 2.8 3.6 Positive surprise on formulation sales run-rate
EBIT Margin (%) 12.2 12.8 13.8 3QFY20 revenue grew 38% YoY to INR7.3b (v/s est. INR6.4b), backed by the
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 19.8 26.0 34.3 formulation segment (FDF; 40% sales), which witnessed an increase in sales
EPS Gr. (%) 90.6 31.6 31.8 to INR2.9b from INR191m in 3QFY19, mainly led by traction in LMIC and
BV/Sh. (INR) 166.7 192.2 225.9
sales from North America/EU.
Ratios
Net D:E 0.5 0.4 0.3 Other API (13% of sales; doubled YoY to INR2.3b), Ingredient (4% of sales;
RoE (%) 12.6 14.5 16.4 +69% YoY to INR636m) and Synthesis (9% of sales; +14% YoY to INR617m)
RoCE (%) 10.9 12.0 13.8 also supported growth.
Payout (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 However, growth was impacted by (i) ARV API (27% of sales; -38% YoY), (ii)
Valuations Hep-C (2% of sales; -21% YoY), and (iii) Oncology API (6% of sales; -18% YoY).
P/E (x) 21.8 16.5 12.5
Gross margin improved 420bp/110bp YoY/QoQ to 50.6% due to increased
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 8.5 6.9
Div. Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 share of formulation. Subsequently, EBITDA margin of 20.3% (v/s est. 19%)
FCF Yield (%) 3.8 3.9 5.7 expanded 370bp YoY. EBITDA came in at INR1.5b (v/s est. INR1.3b), up 69%
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.7 1.4 YoY.
PAT grew almost 4x YoY to INR735m led by strong sales growth, superior
Shareholding pattern (%) margins and lower tax rate.
As On Dec-19 Sep-19 Dec-18 Highlights from management commentary
Promoter 32.6 32.7 33.5 Formulation unit is at maximum utilization levels. Additional capacity for
DII 32.1 32.2 38.3 formulation would be ready by Apr-Jun’20. The company has further
FII 10.5 12.5 8.1 capacity augmentation coming up in 1QFY22.
Others 24.8 22.6 20.1
Laurus has enough visibility for its formulation business from Global
FII Includes depository receipts
Fund/PEPFAR for FY21.
It has a considerable amount of dependency on China for key starting
materials (KSM). Chinese Suppliers of KSM for Laurus would be starting
operations from 10th Feb’20.
Capex for 9MFY20 was INR1.3b and is expected to be INR2.5b for FY20/FY21.
Expect to have FCF in FY21.
Valuation and view
We expect 48% earnings CAGR over FY19-22, primarily led by the
formulation segment, which is expected to garner revenue of INR12.4b by
FY22 (as against INR545m in FY19) and 29% CAGR in other API segment.
We continue to value LAURUS at 17x 12M forward earnings to arrive at price
target of INR520 (from INR440 earlier). Re-iterate Buy.
31 January 2020 2
Laurus Labs
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1: Revenue up 38% YoY driven by Formulations Exhibit 2: FDF sales share increased to 40% (4% in 3QFY19)
Revenue (INRb) Growth (%)
3QFY20
37.8 ARV-API
FDF
21.1 27%
18.3 40%
9.7 9.2 10.5 13.4
2.1
-5.2 HepC-API
2%
4.8 5.6 5.4 5.9 5.3 6.4 5.5 7.1 7.3 Ingredients
Onco-API
3%
6%
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
Synthesis
Other APIs
9%
13%
Exhibit 3: Other API sales doubled YoY Exhibit 4: ARV-API business down 38% YoY/-33% QoQ
Other API Revenue (INRb) ARV API sales (INR b)
3.7 3.9
5.2 3.6
4.9 4.6 4.9 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2
4.3 4.5 3.0
3.7 2.7
3.6
2.0
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
Source: Source:
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
31 January 2020 3
Laurus Labs
20.9 20.3
50.1 49.5 50.6 19.3
48.7 48.1 18.2
46.5 46.4 46.2 17.6
45.2 15.9 16.6
15.5 15.1
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Valuation view
Forward integration to formulation – key growth driver
Laurus invested about INR4b to build formulation facility with capacity of 5bn
units/year. Subsequently, LAURUS filed for ARV products and have approvals for
DLT, DTG/TDF, and ET in place over past two years. Further, it got tenders awarded
by Global Fund, PEPFAR and country-specific, driving this business from INR51m in
1QFY19 to INR3b in 3QFY20. The tender being from Global fund/PEPFAR, LAURUS
has good visibility of business till FY21. In past one year, LAURUS has gained market
share of 10% in DTG. With backward integration in place, We expect LAURUS to
remain cost competitive. Also, it is adding capacity to cater to future growth in this
category. Simultaneously, it is also building ANDA pipeline for US generics market. It
has filed 24 ANDAs with five approvals in place. It intends to file 8-10 ANDAs
annually over next 2-3 years. We expect strong traction in formulation segment over
next 2-3 years.
31 January 2020 4
Laurus Labs
Jun-17
Nov-18
Nov-18
May-19
May-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-18
Aug-19
Dec-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Aug-18
Mar-18
Feb-19
Jan-20
Dec-16
Aug-18
Mar-17
Dec-17
Jan-20
Sep-17
Mar-18
Feb-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg
31 January 2020 5
Laurus Labs
31 January 2020 6
Laurus Labs
31 January 2020 7
Laurus Labs
NOTES
31 January 2020 8
Laurus Labs
31 January 2020 9
Laurus Labs
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