October 10th, 2017

Maqsood A. Butt FCA

Any silver lining to the impending water crisis? — I

Water, water, everywhere, Nor any drop to drink — Samuel Taylor Coleridge  

The annual monsoon rains and occasional floods in Pakistan are reminiscent of Samuel Coleridge’s
predicament; simultaneously one feels guilty visualising the women in Thar carrying water pitchers on
their head for hundreds of meters in the blazing sun, juxtaposed with lawns being watered in Pakistan’s
cities.

Once a water-surplus country with large quantities of water-resources via the Indus River System,
Pakistan is now a water-deficit country. The Falkenmark Indicator, which is based on a survey of
various countries and the per Capita water usage therein, had arrived at four categories ie No Stress,
Stress, Scarcity and Absolute Scarcity, where respectively per capita availability in cubic meter is more
than 1700, between 1000-1700, between 500-1000 and less than 500 cubic meters was categorised as
absolute scarcity. At present, the annual per capita water-availability in Pakistan is about 861 cubic
meters (m3); below 1,000 m3, countries begin experiencing water scarcity. The situation in Pakistan
indicates that the country is nearing conditions of absolute scarcity.

The surface water resources of Pakistan mainly consist of the Indus River and its tributaries, which
provide about 147 MAF during flood season where about 9 MAF is lost due to evaporation and
seepage, leaving the net availability at 138 MAF. Out of this 106 MAF is diverted into canals while 32
MAF is lost to the sea. Around 39 MAF is being extracted from the ground, bringing the total water
available to 145 MAF.

The population of Pakistan was 207,800,000 in 2016 and is estimated to reach 371,000,000 by 2050.
Presently, the annual water availability of 145 MAF feet, comes to 861 Cubic Meter per person.
Assuming that the current water availability of 145 MAF remains constant, even then the per capita
water availability shall reduce to 482cubic meters by 2050. If the current agricultural production is
taken as a base which meets all the food, industrial and other human requirements of the country by
consuming 145 MAF per annum, then with population growing by two percent PA the minimum every
sector of economy has to grow at least by 2 percent every year just to sustain the current living
standards (which already are nothing to be proud of). Consequently, after 9 years, (till 2025) the water
requirement will rise by at least 18 percent, meaning our annual additional need shall be 26 MAF. The
country has no set plans to meet these needs.

The population of Pakistan was 207,800,000 in 2016 and is estimated to reach 371,000,000 by 2050.
Any plans to meet the water requirements this increase in population will bring remain to be seen

 “Pakistan Vision 2025” which was issued by the Ministry of Planning on 29 May 2014 recognises that
sufficient, reliable and cost-effective availability of water — for now and the future — is indispensible
in ensuring sustainable economic growth and development. The primary goal of this vision was to
Increase the water storage capacity in a manner which is applicable to the requirements of each
province and in line with defined strategic needs and international benchmarks. Currently this is 30
days to 45 days by 2018, and 90 days by 2025.

The Vision 2025 (issued two years ago) emphasised on the implementation of a National Water Policy.
A NWP was drafted in 2012 which was supposedly forgotten by everybody but it was dusted again,
amended and reissued in July 2015 and has been presented to the Prime Minister for approval in
February 2016 but is still not out. The guiding principle of the policy is stated to be; equity, efficiency,
participatory decision making, sustainability, transparency and accountability.
The draft of the National Water Policy does not tell us when, where and how the government shall
fulfil it’s vision of increasing the storing capacity to 45 days need  by 2018 and to 90 day’s need by
2025. After reading this policy, one is not informed on how Pakistan will be able to overcome this
imminent and present catastrophe.  It neither gives any plan to tackle the water scarcity issue nor any
blue print on investment to increase water supply.

The state of water reservoirs is not very encouraging. The total reservoirs, even if the under
implementation projects are completed by 2025 the reservoirs shall be merely 29.598 MAF. Keeping
ourtrack records at constructing dams in view, the planned projects probably won’t be completed till
2030 even if funding for Diamer Bhasha is arranged. The dream of increasing the storage capacity to 45
days’ need by 2018 (additional 8.934 MAF) does not seem to be achievable as no reservoir shall be
constructed by that time, except with the possibility of Gomal Zam with 1.140 MAF capacity. To
increase the storage capacity to 90 days requirement, we need to store additional 35.736 MAF water
which needs 6 dams equivalent to the size of the Tarbela Dam, which requires billions of dollars in
investment. Any type of such project remains absent from the drawing board and the required money
remains unavailable. The current water storage capacity of Tarbela, Mangla and 17 other small/medium
dams is 17.868 MAF which is stated to be sufficient for 30 days requirement.

Readers may draw their own conclusion as to whether this Vision 2025 is realistic, in the short run —
by 2018 or in the long run — by 2025. Meanwhile the water shortage keeps creeping in.

The water shortage is exasperated as a result of falling water tables, desertification, increasing
industrial water usage and reduction in storage capacity. The availability of water is reduced furtherby
contamination from industrial waste and sewage. These eventually seep into the country’s ground
water, which is the same water the majority of the country drinks. This contamination is directly
responsible for 70 percent of the country’s water borne diseases.

The water shortage is exasperated as a result of falling water tables, desertification, increasing
industrial water usage and reduction in storage capacity. The availability of water is reduced further
by contamination from industrial waste and sewage

In Pakistan, agricultural irrigation inefficiently uses over 95 percent of the country’s water resources to
support one of the lowest productivities in the world per unit of water. Pakistan’s excessive cultivation
of water intensive cash crops like sugarcane and rice has increased the stress placed on it’s water
reserves. 38percent of Pakistan’s irrigated lands are water logged and 14 percent are saline; and saline
water has intruded into mined aquifers. An alarming decline in water tables has occurred in
Balochistan, as well as an increased reduction in sweetened water in the lower Indus basin. It seems an
accepted fact that the Indus Basin irrigation system, the only source of water in Pakistan is vulnerable.
There is a drastic need to explore alternative water resource development and management techniques.
Because the dams we have are losing their capacity to supply water. This problem can be countered by
building reservoirs. Apart from mitigating the water shortage issue these reservoirs will also generate
electricity at a very cheap cost.

According to a study by the International Water Logging and Salinity Research Institute, ground
aquifers are receding by 16 to 55 centimetres annually in Khyber Pakhunkhwa and parts of Punjab. The
agriculture sector, which is the main consumer of extracted ground water, has started digging deeper
wells with bigger suction pumps. Baluchistan is entirely dependent on rainfall and groundwater. The
local farmers used to rely on ‘karez’ system of irrigation which used the gravity method to store the
water into ditches, to be used for crops. However, due to the receding water level, the karez system has
become ineffective.

 To be continued

 The writer is a Chartered Accountant and can be reached at maqsood@aruj.com

 Published in Daily Times, October 10th 2017.

October 11h, 2017
Maqsood A. Butt FCA

Any silver lining to the impending water crisis? — II

Water is an essential input in every business. It is used in foods, textiles, beverages, tourism,
construction, gardening, fisheries, wood, paper, chemicals, petro-chemicals and other such
ventures

The Indus Water Treaty between Pakistan and India was signed on 19 Sep 1960 whereby
India shall not store any water of, or construct any storage works on, the Western Rivers ie
River Chenab, Jhelum and Indus. Under Article III of the Treaty, Pakistan shall have the right
to unrestricted use of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Punjab) water. Which India is
obligated to let flow and shall not permit any interference except for domestic use, non-
consumption use, agricultural and generation of hydro-electric power projects which don’t
involve storage of water. However, India is constructing 330 MW Kishanganga and 850 MW
Ratle Hydroelectric plants on the tributaries of the Jhelum and Chenab rivers in Jammu and
Kashmir, in violation of the Treaty.

Water is an essential input in every business. It is mainly, but not limited to; all food items,
entire textile chains, beverages, tourism, construction, gardening, fisheries, wood, paper,
chemicals, petro-chemicals and other such ventures.

The industrial and agricultural sectors thus compete against each other. As such it is the
shared responsibility of everybody to effectively and efficiently use this essential asset.
Unfortunately, as it’s free of cost, it’s overuse isn’t much thought about. The shortage of water
in any area shall initially constrict economic growth and ultimately stifle every kind of
economic activity, leading to internal migration of population giving rise to new kind of
‘environmental refugees’.

Energy and water are interdependent and the water-energy nexus is a significant factor that
cannot be ignored. Water is used extensively in power generation, the extraction,
transportation and processing of fossil fuels. Similarly energy is vital to power the systems
that collect, transport, distribute and treat water. According to the 1012 World Energy Outlook,
in 2010, global withdrawals for energy production were estimated at 583 billion cubic meters
(bcm), or some 15 per cent of the world’s total water withdrawals. Of that water consumption
— the volume withdrawn but not returned to its source — was 66 bcm or about 11 percent of
energy-related water withdrawals.

The shortage of water in any area shall initially constrict economic growth and ultimately
stifle every kind of economic activity, leading to internal migration of population giving rise to
new kind of ‘environmental refugees’

About 95 percent of the water is used in agriculture. Conservation in Agriculture can be

achieved by drip irrigation, capturing and storing rain-water, drought-tolerant crops and dry
farming. The drip irrigation system which sends water to the root of the plant or crop should
be encouraged as it has the potential to save about 80 percent of the water used in
agriculture.

Water could be reused in industries, municipal waste water could be recycled and reused.
Grey water is usable waste water from residential, commercial and industrial buildings. This
type of water after recycling can be used in various types of commercial ventures. The people
also have to be educated to create an intrinsic desire to conserve water. An 18-Hole golf
course in Pakistan’s climatic condition consumes about 32 acre feet per annum which is
39,471,360 Litres!!!

Water lining is the most efficient method of water conservation. An economic feasibility study
of canal water lining was prepared by INTECH in 2015 which estimated the cost of lining
canals with geomembrane at 15,324.40 dollars per kilometre and the payback period was
about 2.84 years. This sample study was done in an interfarm earthen channel in Aral Sea
Basin and the canal efficiency was enhanced from 50 percent to 89 percent.

The per capita availability which was 1,348 cubic metres in 1998, has already gone down to
861 cubic centimetres in 2016 thereby making Pakistan a water scarce country. By 2050, with
an expected population of 371 million, Pakistan shall be facing ‘absolute scarcity’ of water, at
482 cubic metres per person

The total cost of the lining all canals in Pakistan with plastic shall cost, taking INTECH study
estimates, about 859 million dollars. Another study for Design and Evaluation of Dadu Canal
Lining for Sustainable Water Saving with concrete lining was prepared in 2013 by Ashfaq A
Memon et al which estimated the cost of lining of 33,293 Mtrs (33.293 km) to be 145,668
rupees per metre.

Lining of the canal will decrease the seepage by 40 to 50 percent and conveyance efficiency
shall increase by 70 to 90 percent. If the entire 56,073 kilometres of canals of Pakistan are
lined with concrete, it may cost (if cost estimate of Dadu Canal is to be applied), 9.962 trillion
rupees; and if INTECH price estimate are to be applied, then the total cost shall be 92 billion
rupees for geomembrane lining. The geomembrane lining has successfully been in use for the
last 25 years.

The total length of canals in the country is stated to be 56,073 kilometres which carries an
estimated 106 MAF water to the formagate. This loses about 50 percent of the water, which
comes to 53 MAF. As can be seen above, there is huge difference in lining cost of
geomembrane and concrete. However, the government must initiate a study as early as
possible since it shall save 53 MAF which is equivalent to 4 times more than the current total
reservoir capacity of 13.820 MAF of the Tarbela and Mangla dams combined.

The per capita availability which was 1348 cubic metres in 1998, has already gone down to
861 cubic centimetres in 2016 thereby making Pakistan a water scarce Country. By 2050 with
a expected population of 371 million, Pakistan shall be facing ‘Absolute Scarcity’ of water, at
482 cubic metres per per person.

However, there is a silver lining out there. Firstly, 32 MAF which is being lost to the sea can
be saved by dredging the canals and constructing water reservoirs. Secondly, by changing
crop cultivation patterns, by reducing rice and sugar cultivation to meet only domestic demand
and by improving irrigation system (especially the drip irrigation system) and by lining the
canals, about 50 percent of the 106 MAF which is used for agriculture, can be saved
amounting to 53 MAF.

This 85 MAF is equivalent to 104 Bill cubic meter. Thirdly, the volume of water required to
product 1 kilogram of beef is 6804 litres. The billionaire Richard Branson bets big on lab meat
being produced in laboratories and has invested heavily in Memphis Meat on the belief that in
30 years or so, we will no longer need to kill any animal (and simultaneously not breed
animals). Laboratory produced meat shall be plant based and much healthier. This shall save
billions of litres of water. Fourthly, the Government should consider heavy cessation or excise
on all companies which are selling billions of litres of water at around 40 rupees per litre but
use the water free of cost. Technology gives us a way out of the upcoming water crisis if we
make haste and act.
The writer is a Chartered Accountant and can be reached at
president@economywatch.com.pk

Published in Daily Times, October 11th 2017.