Synthesis: 

Preparers
Margaret Trani Griep, Regional Wildlife Ecologist, Southern Regional Office;
Patricia N. Manley, Institute of Pacific Islands Forestry, Pacific Southwest Research
Station.
An archived version of this topic paper is available.

Issues
Biological diversity refers to the variation among living organisms and the ecological
complexes of which they are a part. This includes the interrelated nature of genetics,
species, and populations across the landscape (1). Biological diversity is essential to
maintaining ecosystem processes and services; when loss occurs, ecosystem functionality
is reduced (2, 3, 4). Losses of biological diversity over the past century have been
unprecedented with environmental stressors such as land-use change, habitat degradation,
landscape fragmentation, pollutants, and invasive species taking their toll.
Climate change has become an additional stress on species and communities, one that is
expected to increase with time (5). Average temperatures in the United States have risen
2°F over the past half-century (6). The U. S. Global Change Research Program (7)
reports that Alaska has warmed at twice the rate (3.4°F) during the same time period,
causing reduced sea ice, glacier retreat, and permafrost warming. In the Southeast, fall
precipitation has increased 30% and the number of freezing days has declined 4-7 days
per year (7). Rising winter temperatures in the Northeast has resulted in longer growing
seasons, less winter precipitation falling as snow, and earlier peak river flows. Heat
waves, severe drought, and declining water resources are becoming issues in the
Southwest and Great Plains (8). Higher temperatures (1.5°F - 4°F) in the Northwest have
contributed to earlier snowmelt and reduced stream flows during the summer (9). Sea
level rise, high water temperatures, and ocean acidification are concerns in coastal
regions.

Expected Changes
Questions exist about the challenges that these climate changes pose to biological
diversity. Species respond to environmental conditions based on habitat needs and
physiological tolerances (10), which in turn influences community composition,
structure, and resilience (11). There may be shifts in the geographic range of many
species, influencing seasonal movement, recruitment, and mortality (12). Changes in
phenology (e.g., timing of resource availability, advances in flowering or nesting dates)
may alter predator-prey, competitive interaction, and herbivore-vegetation dynamics (13,
1). Ecological niches may change at a pace slower than expectations for climate change
(14); similarly, the pace of climate change will likely exceed the dispersal rate of several
species (15). Existing communities may dissociate as species follow the range of suitable
conditions, meaning that previously co-occurring species may move in divergent patterns
(16, 17, 18, 19). Recolonization may be limited to areas similar to the range core (20).
Characteristics of species and communities at risk include those with restricted
geographic ranges, fragmented distributions, and those that occur at the margins of their
range. Other characteristics include limited dispersal ability, low genetic diversity, strong
affinity to aquatic habitats, narrow physiological tolerance, and late maturation (18).
Climate change may exacerbate these risks. For example, amphibians associated with
cool, moist conditions may be subject to microclimates beyond their tolerance.
Ephemeral streams and ponds may be especially vulnerable to drying with variable
precipitation patterns. The small or disjunct populations that often characterize species of
concern are likely to be impacted by stochastic climatic events and may not have the
ability to adapt to a changing climate.
Climate change has been shown to affect the geographic range of species along
elevational gradients (21, 22). Northern-temperate birds have shifted their ranges to
higher latitudes, and tropical birds have shifted their breeding ranges to higher altitudes
(11). These range shifts appear to have affected migration strategies, where success will
depend on the rate of climate change relative to essential habitat needs and key
community interactions. In the Southwest, small mammals have expanded their ranges
upward in elevation while high-elevation species have contracted theirs, leading to
changes in community composition (22). The elevation range shifts of butterfly species
recorded in the Sierra Nevada Mountains may continue (23).
There are a number of other changes in biodiversity that are expected to result from
climate change. Eastern tree species richness is projected to increase as temperatures
warm (24), with the expansion of oak-hickory complex northward and contraction of
aspen-birch habitat (25). Old-growth forests in the Northwest (26) and high-elevation
forests (such as the spruce-fir complex) in the South (27) and elsewhere (25) appear
particularly vulnerable. Rising temperatures may influence forest growth due to drought
stress and declining soil moisture. This will increase the frequency of pine beetle and
other insect attacks; milder winters may encourage the early emergence of other forest
pests. Neotropical migratory birds that are sensitive to climate (i.e., climate associates)
may change their migratory arrival in spring, as is being currently observed in the West
(28).
Water-limited areas (e. g., weather-dependent, ephemeral) and aquatic systems are also
expected to be vulnerable to change (29, 30, 31). Changes in water temperatures may
result in reduced oxygen levels in streams and lakes, leading to declines in aquatic
species diversity and stress on coldwater fisheries. Increased water temperatures in the
Caribbean and Pacific Islands may continue to threaten coral reefs (32), shellfish, and
other species. Barrier islands will be vulnerable to severe storm events, sea level rise, and
saltwater intrusion (33), leading to declines in coastal wetlands and marshes (6).
Communities along the Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico supporting high
concentrations of federally-listed species and migratory shorebirds will be especially
vulnerable (27).

Options for Management

Climate change creates uncertainty about how best to design adaptation and mitigation
strategies (34). Static management can no longer be assumed (35); the environment will
change in a directional way rather than varying around a mean condition (36). The
planning focus will be on spatial and temporal scales that are broader and longer than
typically considered. Management for resilient forests and resistance to invasive species
may become more focused in the future to account for changing climate, land use, and
human population expansion. Difficult decisions on where to spend limited resources
may favor some species over others. For example, restoration strategies may shift away
from coastal areas under risk of sea level rise. As future impacts occur across large areas,
the appropriate decision-making level may shift to cover landscape and regional scales.
Management options are further challenged by estimating the adaptive abilities of species
where no current ecological analog exists. It will be critical to maintain conditions that
allow for changes in species composition and migration while maintaining system
function and process. The indirect effects on diversity created by shifting ranges and
habitat associations are unknown (29, 37); predicting biogeographical shifts will be
challenging.
Knowledge is evolving as researchers refine levels of uncertainty and contrast
anthropogenic activities altering atmospheric composition with natural climate
variability. Ecological response models (occupancy, vegetation, other) using downscaled
climate data will play important roles. Management options that can help maintain
biodiversity even where uncertainties exist include:
 Vulnerability assessments to identify species and communities at risk, including
strategies to maximize persistence, dispersal, and ecosystem resilience (6).
 Ecological risk evaluation for areas of imminent change.
 Identification of barriers to migration and identification of mitigation measures to
enhance landscape connectivity into future planning efforts.
 Long-term monitoring strategies to identify patterns in disturbance and phenology
including the evaluation of current environmental indicators of biological diversity
and resiliency.
 Adaptive restoration strategies based on predicted species range expansion and
contraction, storm surge proximity, and seal level rise.
 Enhancement of genetic diversity to provide resilience against environmental
stressors.
  Development of innovative tools for integrating climate change science into land
management planning.

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How to cite: 
Trani Griep, M.; Manley, P. 2012. Biodiversity and Climate Change. (January 4, 2012).
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource
Center. www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/topics/biodiversity