Theor Appl Climatol
DOI 10.1007/s00704-013-1015-9
ORIGINAL PAPER
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature
and its relationship over India
N. Subash & A. K. Sikka
Received: 6 December 2012 / Accepted: 16 September 2013
# Springer-Verlag Wien 2013
Abstract This study investigated the trends in rainfall and
temperature and the possibility of any rational relationship
between the trends over the homogeneous regions over India.
Annual maximum temperature shows an increasing trend in all
the homogeneous temperature regions and corresponding an-
nual rainfall also follow the same pattern in all the regions,
except North East. As far as monthly analysis is concerned, no
definite pattern has been observed between trends in maximum
and minimum temperature and rainfall, except during October.
Increasing trends of maximum and minimum temperature dur-
ing October accelerate the water vapor demand and most of the
lakes, rivers, ponds and other water bodies with no limitation of
water availability during this time fulfills the water vapor de-
mand and shows an increasing trend of rainfall activity. This
study shows there exists no direct relationship between increas-
ing rainfall and increasing maximum temperature when month-
ly or seasonal pattern is concerned over meteorological subdi-
visions of India, however we can make a conclusion that the
relation between the trends of rainfall and temperature have
large scale spatial and temporal dependence.
1 Introduction
Temperature changes and radiation balance together with
changes in rainfall pattern alters the hydrological cycle of
the earth–atmosphere system. Qian and Co-authors (2006)
N. Subash (*)
Project Directorate for Farming Systems Research
Indian Council of Agricultural Research Modipuram,
250110 Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, India
e-mail: n_suby@rediffmail.com
N. Subash
e-mail: n_suby@sify.com
A. K. Sikka
Natural Resource Management, Indian Council of Agricultural
Research, Krishi Anusandhan Bhawan II, New Delhi 110012, India
found that global land evapotranspiration closely follow the
variations in land precipitation. Climate model simulations
and empirical evidences confirm that warmer climates, owing
to increased water vapor, lead to more intense precipitation
events and therefore increase the risk of floods (Hennessey
et al. 1997; IPCC 2007). As reported by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Indian subcontinent will
be adversely affected by enhanced variability of climate,
rising temperature and substantial reduction of summer rain-
fall in some parts and thereby water stress by the 2020s (Cruz
et al. 2007). Several studies were undertaken to analyze the
trends in long term precipitation and temperature, its inter-
annual, seasonal and decadal variability at different scales
such as local, regional, national, continental spatial scales
(Chen et al. 1992; Chaudhari 1994; Kadioglu 1997; Izrael
et al. 1997; Mirza and Dixit 1997; Rankova 1998; Ren et al.
2000; Brunetti et al. 2000a,b; Salinger and Griffiths 2001;
Wibig and Glowicki 2002; Lu et al. 2004; Domroes and El-
Tantawi 2005; Gadgil and Dhorde 2005; Tomozeiu et al.
2006; ElNesr et al. 2010).
Future projections of climate change using global and
regional climate models, run by Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM) with different IPCC emission scenarios,
indicate temperature changes of about 3–5 °C and increase of
about 5–10 % in summer monsoon rainfall (NATCOM 2004).
Another study using daily rainfall data for over 50 years show
a significant increasing trend in extreme rainfall events over
central India (Goswami et al. 2006). Gosain et al. (2006) have
quantified the impact of climate change on the water resources
of Indian river systems. Recent studies have shown that the
anthropogenic forcing due to land-use and land-cover changes
(LULCC) may also significantly modify the temperature
trends (Bonan 1997; Gallo et al. 1999; Chase et al. 2000;
Feddema et al. 2005; Christy et al. 2006; Wichansky et al.
2008; Betts et al. 2007). It is also found that LULC changes
have contributed to warming over Western India by 0.06°C
per decade (Nayak and Mandal 2012). Parthasarathy and Dhar
(1974), Thapaliyal and Kulshrestha(1991), Rao and Kumar

(1992), Rupakumar et al. (1992), Srivastava et al. (1992) and
Parthasarathy et al. (1993), Kothyari and Singh (1996),
Kripalani and Kulkarni (1996, 2001), Sinha Ray and
Srivastava (2000), Sadhukhan et al. (2000), Patra et al.
(2005), Kothawale et al. (2010), Kumar et al. (2010), Kumar
and Jain (2010), Pal and Al-Tabbaa (2010a,b, 2011), Arora
et al. (2010), Subash and Ram Mohan (2010a,b) and Subash
et al. (2011) studied the trends of annual and seasonal rainfall
at various locations and at different scales over India. Most of
the above attempts have been made in the past to determine
trends in the rainfall and temperature at national and regional
scales independently or confined to the analysis of annual or
seasonal series of individual or groups of stations. In this
study, we examined the trends of monthly, seasonal and
annual rainfall and minimum, maximum, mean and range of
temperature over India and also investigated the possibility of
any rational relationship between trends in rainfall and max-
imum and minimum temperature over different homogeneous
regions over India.
2 Data/methodology
Based on the topography and climatologically prevailing con-
ditions over the sub-continent, the India Meteorological
Department has divided the country into 36 meteorological
sub-divisions (Fig. 1). Out of these 36 meteorological subdi-
visions, six sub-divisions (four hill divisions and two island
divisions) were not considered in view of the low areal repre-
sentativeness of a rain gauge in hilly/island areas and a gen-
erally meager network of rain gauges over these areas, both of
these factors contributing to a rather large error in the areal
rainfall average over a hilly/island sub-division or area. The
sub-divisional monthly time series of rainfall data were col-
lected from the IITM (http://www.tropmet.res.in) during the
period 1904–2003, and more information on this aspect is
available in the website. The homogeneity or stationarity of
the monthly data series was tested by Swed and Eisenhart's
test and the Mann–Kendall rank test (WMO 1966) and found
that all the sub-divisions the number of run lie within the
required limits of 5 % significance level (Parthasarathy et al.
1987). They have also tested the nature of the frequency
distribution of the chi-square statistic with ten equal probabil-
ity class intervals (Cochran 1952). Mooley and Parthasarathy
(1984); Parthasarathy et al. (1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995);
Pant and Rupakumar (1997); Mooley et al. (1981) provided a
more detailed discussion of the methodology adopted for
quality, completeness and homogeneity of these data sets.
The monthly temperature data series from 1904 to 2003 of
homogeneous temperature region available from the website
of IITM (www.tropmet.ac.in) were used in this study and
methodology for preparing the datasets were available in the
N. Subash, A.K. Sikka
website. All-India and regional monthly temperature series are
computed by simple averages of the constituent grid point
data of the respective regions (Kothawale and Rupakumar
2005). Based on climatic features of the months, India
Meteorological Department has defined four seasons: Winter
(January and February), Pre-monsoon (March–May),
Monsoon (June–September) and Post-monsoon (October–
December).
2.1 Mann–Kendall trend test
Mann–Kendall (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975) is a nonparamet-
ric trend test basically involves the ranks obtained by each
data in the data series and is a statistical yes/no type hypothesis
testing procedure for the existence of trends and does not
estimate the slope of trends. The Mann–Kendall nonparamet-
ric test, as described by Sneyer (1990), was applied in order to
detect trends. The Mann–Kendal test has been widely used by
several researchers to detect trends in hydrological time series
data (Wilks 1995; Serrano et al. 1999; Brunetti et al. 2000a,b;
Onoz and Bayazit 2003; Luo et al. 2008; Pal and Abir Al-
Tabbaa 2010a). The magnitude of the trends was estimated
using Sen slope (Sen 1968), and according to Hirsch et al.
(1982) Sen's method was robust against extreme outliers. The
procedures and equations for Mann–Kendall test statistic and
Sen's methodology were described by Bandyopadhyay et al.
(2009) and Subash et al. (2011).
3 Results and discussion
3.1 Spatial variability of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall
There is significant spatial and temporal variation in the mean
monthly rainfall received in different meteorological sub-
divisions of India (Table 1). In 22 sub-divisions, July receives
the most rainfall with Coastal Karnataka (32) recording the
highest rainfall of 1009.4 mm. A precipitation of 64.1 mm was
recorded at Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry (31), whereas the
northeast monsoon (October–November) is the predominant
rainy season. However, Assam and Meghalaya (3) and Kerala
(35) received the highest rainfall during June while Orissa (7),
west Uttar Pradesh (11), west Rajasthan (17) and Chhattisgarh
(27) recorded the highest rainfall in August and Rayalaseema
(30) recorded the highest rainfall in September. Tamil Nadu
and Pondicherry recorded the highest rainfall of 182.3 mm
during October. As far as the homogeneous rainfall region is
concerned, the northeast received the highest rainfall in all
months, except January while all regions received the highest
rainfall during July. Interestingly, the peninsular region
recorded two rainfall peaks, one in July and another in
October which shows that this region follows a bi-model
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in India

a Homogenous temperature regions b Homogenous rainfall regions

WH-Western Himalaya
NW-North-West
NC-North Central
NE-North east
WC-West Coast
EC-East Coast
IP-Interior Peninsula

c Meteorological subdivisions of India

Fig. 1 a Homogenous rainfall regions, b homogeneous temperature regions and c meteorological subdivisions of India

distribution pattern, except 3 months (January–March) all
other months receive significant rainfall. India receives an
annual rainfall of 1087.3 mm, out of which 77.8 %
(845.9 mm) was received during the southwest monsoon
(Table 2). However, it shows higher spatial variability with
89.4 % in northwest to 56.8 % in peninsular region. As far as
the meteorological subdivisions are concerned, there is a wide
spatial variation from 94.9 % in Gujarat to 52.3 % in coastal
Andhra Pradesh in the contribution of southwest monsoon to
the annual rainfall.
3.2 Spatial variability of maximum and minimum temperature
The highest maximum temperature occurred during May in all
homogeneous temperature regions as well as in India as a whole,
except on the west coast and western Himalaya (Table 3).
 N. Subash, A.K. Sikka

Table 1 Mean monthly rainfall over different meteorological subdivisions and homogeneous regions of India

Div. no. Name of sub-division Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Meteorological sub-divisions
3 Assam and Meghalaya 16.8 33.8 77.9 197.8 319.1 449.7 427.8 352.9 287.8 157.6 33.2 9.4
4 Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura 11.4 31.2 65.3 131.5 228.0 360.3 365.7 334.2 250.9 143.7 41.1 11.8
5 West Bengal 10.5 16.2 27.8 86.0 226.9 495.2 613.4 484.6 412.5 137.4 12.5 4.8
6 Gangetic West Bengal 13.8 25.0 32.4 45.0 110.3 251.1 334.3 328.1 252.4 128.0 24.2 6.9
7 Orissa 11.7 22.1 22.1 31.2 64.5 216.6 350.9 364.4 236.0 120.5 34.2 5.7
8 Jharkhand 19.4 26.7 22.4 20.7 53.6 202.7 338.8 328.1 230.4 85.1 14.8 6.8
9 Bihar 14.5 17.1 10.7 17.2 54.1 175.9 328.0 304.5 223.2 67.6 8.6 4.8
10 East Uttar Pradesh 16.7 16.7 9.0 6.9 16.9 113.7 298.4 291.6 200.0 42.9 5.4 7.1
11 West Uttar Pradesh 19.2 19.4 12.6 7.0 15.2 84.4 258.3 260.1 153.2 29.6 4.2 8.9
13 Haryana 19.1 18.7 13.9 8.6 16.1 53.2 163.7 157.5 91.2 13.1 3.9 8.3
14 Punjab 27.3 29.5 25.1 14.5 15.8 50.5 186.2 170.1 99.4 16.1 4.9 14.6
17 West Rajasthan 4.2 5.7 4.3 4.1 11.4 30.5 93.9 95.6 39.1 6.1 2.0 2.2
18 East Rajasthan 6.9 6.1 4.6 4.0 12.6 72.3 228.8 221.3 101.5 16.0 5.6 4.2
19 West Madhya Pradesh 9.3 6.8 5.2 2.8 9.5 115.4 296.9 287.7 161.3 28.5 13.6 7.2
20 East Madhya Pradesh 20.6 21.5 15.0 8.5 12.7 150.5 382.2 376.9 199.5 40.5 14.1 10.1
21 Gujarat 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.6 7.5 130.2 341.0 243.3 139.9 21.9 7.8 1.7
22 Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu 1.9 2.6 2.5 1.4 6.2 68.1 180.4 109.2 64.4 15.6 6.9 1.2
23 Konkan and Goa 2.1 0.8 0.5 2.9 30.6 687.3 855.8 530.4 308.6 95.6 23.6 3.9
24 Madhya Maharashtra 3.5 1.9 3.8 11.3 25.9 125.0 179.0 129.3 137.8 74.9 26.8 6.3
25 Marathwada 5.9 5.1 7.0 8.7 19.7 140.4 181.2 168.5 187.4 64.0 23.5 7.4
26 Vidarbha 10.4 15.8 13.3 12.3 14.7 177.5 307.5 271.8 177.7 53.6 17.0 9.8
27 Chattisgarh 13.5 18.9 16.6 19.2 23.7 206.6 377.3 377.8 219.4 61.4 13.4 5.3
28 Coastal Andhra Pradesh 10.5 10.6 9.6 16.9 46.4 89.6 136.2 134.7 152.4 213.3 132.9 27.9
29 Telangana 6.5 9.3 10.4 19.1 28.9 133.9 219.7 192.2 170.4 83.1 22.8 5.3
30 Rayalaseema 6.2 4.5 7.1 17.8 49.2 71.4 96.5 108.8 145.5 118.8 69.0 19.7
31 Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry 26.8 15.1 16.1 41.6 63.8 46.1 64.1 88.5 107.8 182.3 180.5 88.0
32 Coastal Karnataka 1.7 1.3 2.8 25.0 147.2 977.4 1009.4 615.4 274.3 174.5 59.9 11.9
33 North Interior Karnataka 3.3 3.3 7.2 29.3 50.2 121.0 179.3 144.2 148.7 101.1 31.4 5.9
34 South Interior Karnataka 3.8 4.5 9.5 44.0 97.3 97.2 145.3 125.3 131.8 143.3 56.7 12.7
35 Kerala 12.6 18.5 37.2 111.3 248.5 673.2 638.6 387.7 230.2 294.7 165.8 39.0
Homogeneous rainfall regions
1 Northwest 7.0 7.6 5.9 4.4 10.9 63.4 186.0 157.5 80.1 13.4 4.8 3.8
2 Central Northeast 15.7 20.0 15.3 17.1 40.7 159.3 316.3 313.2 209.9 71.6 14.8 6.6
3 Northeast 14.1 29.5 59.2 133.4 235.9 380.6 403.2 352.4 279.3 144.9 31.4 9.0
4 West Central 9.6 10.7 9.6 12.6 21.7 166.1 301.1 270.6 181.3 60.5 19.1 7.0
5 Peninsular 13.0 9.9 13.2 38.6 84.6 164.3 191.7 157.6 145.9 180.2 120.6 41.3
India 11.2 13.5 15.1 26.9 52.6 161.8 271.4 244.4 168.3 78.6 31.8 11.7

Among the seasons, summer season recorded the highest max-
imum temperature in all the homogeneous temperature regions
except western Himalaya, where it occurred during monsoon
season. Lowest minimum temperature occurred during January
in all homogeneous temperature regions as well as India as a
whole except Interior Peninsula while it occurred during June in
north Central and north West. However, higher minimum tem-
perature occurred during July in north East and western
Himalaya. As far as spatial seasonal variation is concerned,
lowest minimum temperature of −3.3 °C occurred in western
Himalaya while the highest minimum temperature of 19.5 °C
occurred in the east coast. The highest minimum temperature
was noticed during monsoon season in all the homogeneous
regions except the Interior Peninsula, where it occurred during
the summer season. There is a significant spatial variation in
the mean range of temperature, which expresses the diurnal
variation as well as the atmospheric moisture demand of a
place. It shows the higher range of temperature over North
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in India

Table 2 Mean seasonal and annual rainfall (mm) over different meteorological subdivisions and homogeneous regions of India and its percent
contribution to annual rainfall

Div. no. Name of sub-division Winter Summer Monsoon Post monsoon Annual

Meteorological sub-divisions
3 Assam and Meghalaya 50.6 (2.1) 594.7 (25.2) 1,518.2 (64.2) 200.2 (8.5) 2,363.7
4 Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura 42.6 (2.2) 424.8 (21.5) 1,311.1 (66.4) 196.7 (10.0) 1,975.2
5 West Bengal 26.6 (1.1) 340.6 (13.5) 2,005.7 (79.4) 154.6 (6.1) 2,527.6
6 Gangetic West Bengal 38.8 (2.5) 187.6 (12.1) 1,165.8 (75.1) 159.1 (10.3) 1,551.4
7 Orissa 33.8 (2.3) 117.9 (8.0) 1,168.0 (78.9) 160.4 (10.8) 1,480.0
8 Jharkhand 46.1 (3.4) 96.8 (7.2) 1,100.0 (81.5) 106.6 (7.9) 1,349.5
9 Bihar 31.6 (2.6) 82.0 (6.7) 1,031.6 (84.1) 80.9 (6.6) 1,226.1
10 East Uttar Pradesh 33.3 (3.2) 32.8 (3.2) 903.7 (88.1) 55.4 (5.4) 1,025.2
11 West Uttar Pradesh 38.5 (4.4) 34.8 (4.0) 755.9 (86.7) 42.7 (4.9) 871.9
13 Haryana 37.8 (6.7) 38.5 (6.8) 465.6 (82.1) 25.3 (4.5) 567.2
14 Punjab 56.9 (8.7) 55.4 (8.5) 506.1 (77.4) 35.5 (5.4) 654.0
17 West Rajasthan 9.9 (3.3) 19.7 (6.6) 259.0 (86.6) 10.4 (3.5) 299.0
18 East Rajasthan 13.0 (1.9) 21.1 (3.1) 623.9 (91.2) 25.7 (3.8) 683.8
19 West Madhya Pradesh 16.1 (1.7) 17.5 (1.9) 861.3 (91.2) 49.3 (5.2) 944.2
20 East Madhya Pradesh 42.2 (3.4) 36.1 (2.9) 1,109.1 (88.6) 64.7 (5.2) 1,252.2
21 Gujarat 4.4 (0.5) 10.3 (1.1) 854.3 (94.9) 31.5 (3.5) 900.5
22 Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu 4.5 (1.0) 10.1 (2.2) 422.1 (91.7) 23.7 (5.1) 460.5
23 Konkan and Goa 2.8 (0.1) 34.0 (1.3) 2,382.1 (93.7) 123.1 (4.8) 2,542.1
24 Madhya Maharashtra 5.4 (0.7) 41.0 (5.7) 571.2 (78.7) 108.0 (14.9) 725.6
25 Marathwada 11.0 (1.3) 35.5 (4.3) 677.6 (82.7) 95.0 (11.6) 819.0
26 Vidarbha 26.2 (2.4) 40.4 (3.7) 934.5 (86.4) 80.4 (7.4) 1,081.5
27 Chattisgarh 32.4 (2.4) 59.5 (4.4) 1,181.1 (87.3) 80.0 (5.9) 1,352.9
28 Coastal Andhra Pradesh 21.1 (2.2) 73.0 (7.4) 512.9 (52.3) 374.0 (38.1) 980.9
29 Telangana 15.8 (1.8) 58.4 (6.5) 716.2 (79.4) 111.2 (12.3) 901.5
30 Rayalaseema 10.7 (1.5) 74.1 (10.4) 422.2 (59.1) 207.5 (29.0) 714.5
31 Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry 42.0 (4.6) 121.6 (13.2) 306.5 (33.3) 450.7 (49.0) 920.7
32 Coastal Karnataka 3.0 (0.1) 175.0 (5.3) 2,876.4 (87.1) 246.3 (7.5) 3,300.7
33 North Interior Karnataka 6.6 (0.8) 86.7 (10.5) 593.1 (71.9) 138.4 (16.8) 824.8
34 South Interior Karnataka 8.3 (1.0) 150.8 (17.3) 499.6 (57.3) 212.7 (24.4) 871.5
35 Kerala 31.1 (1.1) 397.0 (13.9) 1,929.8 (67.5) 499.5 (17.5) 2,857.4
Homogeneous (temperature regions)
1 Northwest 14.6 (2.7) 21.2 (3.9) 487.0 (89.4) 22.0 (4.0) 544.8
2 Central Northeast 35.7 (3.0) 73.1 (6.1) 998.7 (83.2) 93.0 (7.7) 1,200.5
3 Northeast 43.5 (2.1) 428.4 (20.7) 1,416 (68.3) 185 (8.9) 2,072.8
4 West Central 20.2 (1.9) 43.9 (4.1) 919.1 (85.9) 86.6 (8.1) 1,069.8
5 Peninsular 22.9 (2.0) 136.4 (11.8) 659.4 (56.8) 342.1 (29.5) 1,160.8
India 25.0 (2.3) 94.6 (8.7) 845.9 (77.8) 122.0 (11.2) 1,087.3

Figures in parenthesis indicate the percent contribution to annual rainfall

West and the lower range of temperature over the east coast
homogeneous temperature region.
3.3 Trends in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall
No significant increasing/decreasing trend has been observed
in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over India (Table 4).
Increasing trend of rainfall during post-monsoon in all
homogeneous regions will be advantageous for the slow de-
pletion of storage/groundwater in the lean period. However,
the decreasing trend of rainfall during winter season implies
lesser storage and greater water stress. As far as annual rainfall
trends in meteorological subdivisions are concerned, 17 me-
teorological sub-divisions show increasing trend while 13
show decreasing trend. The highest significant increasing
trends in the annual rainfall of 342 mm/100 years have been
 N. Subash, A.K. Sikka

Table 3 Mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature (°C)over different homogeneous regions of India

Div. no. Name of sub-division Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec JF MAM JJAS OND Annual

Maximum temperature
1 West Coast 29.5 30.6 32.9 34.1 33.8 30.9 28.7 28.3 29.4 31.3 31.0 29.8 30.0 33.6 29.3 30.7 30.9
2 East Coast 28.5 30.6 33.2 35.0 36.5 35.5 33.5 33.1 33.0 31.7 29.6 28.2 29.6 34.9 33.8 29.9 32.4
3 Interior Peninsula 29.2 31.9 35.4 37.9 38.8 34.6 30.8 30.3 30.9 31.3 29.6 28.4 30.5 37.4 31.6 29.7 32.4
4 North East 22.4 24.4 29.2 32.0 32.7 32.0 30.7 30.5 30.4 29.5 26.7 23.5 23.4 31.3 30.9 26.6 28.7
5 North Central 23.3 25.9 31.5 36.7 39.1 36.5 31.3 30.1 30.9 31.1 27.8 24.2 24.6 35.7 32.2 27.7 30.7
6 North West 23.5 26.0 31.4 36.6 39.6 38.6 34.3 32.7 33.6 34.0 29.7 25.1 24.7 35.9 34.8 29.6 32.1
7 Western Himalayas 6.0 7.5 12.8 18.4 22.9 26.5 27.2 26.4 24.5 20.7 15.2 9.1 6.7 18.0 26.2 15.0 18.1
India 24.0 26.3 30.9 34.6 36.4 34.5 31.3 30.5 30.9 30.8 27.8 24.7 25.2 33.9 31.8 27.8 30.2
Minimum temperature
1 West Coast 16.3 17.4 20.1 22.7 24.3 24.0 23.3 23.0 22.5 21.7 19.4 17.1 16.8 22.4 23.2 19.4 21.0
2 East Coast 18.7 20.3 22.8 25.5 26.9 26.7 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.0 21.5 19.0 19.5 25.1 25.8 21.5 23.5
3 Interior Peninsula 15.0 17.0 20.3 23.7 25.3 24.2 23.0 22.6 22.3 20.8 17.5 14.7 16.0 23.1 23.0 17.7 20.5
4 North East 9.1 11.3 15.3 19.6 22.1 23.7 23.9 23.7 23.1 19.9 14.4 10.0 10.2 19.0 23.6 14.8 18.0
5 North Central 8.5 10.6 15.2 20.6 24.7 25.6 24.2 23.6 22.6 18.4 12.7 8.9 9.6 20.2 24.0 13.3 18.0
6 North West 8.0 10.4 15.5 20.9 24.9 26.7 25.6 24.6 23.3 18.9 13.1 8.9 9.2 20.4 25.1 13.6 18.4
7 Western Himalayas −4.1 −2.6 1.6 6.1 9.8 13.1 15.7 15.3 10.9 5.3 0.2 −2.7 −3.3 5.8 13.7 0.9 5.7
India 10.2 12.2 16.2 20.6 23.5 24.3 23.6 23.1 22.1 19.0 14.2 10.7 11.2 20.1 23.3 14.6 18.3

observed over coastal Karnataka while the highest significant
decreasing trend of annual rainfall at the rate of 288 mm/
100 years have been noted over Kerala. This shows that coastal
areas are more vulnerable areas in terms of droughts and floods.
Significant increasing trends of annual rainfall of 112 and
169 mm/100 years, respectively, have been noticed over
Haryana and Punjab. The important/salient features of the
monthly rainfall trends over meteorological subdivisions are
as follows:
& Significant increasing trend of 59, 50 and 53 mm/100 years,
respectively, over Marathwada, Telangana and North
Interior Karnataka during the post-monsoon show increas-
ing rainfall activity in dry regions.
& Significant increasing trend of 112 and 163 mm/100 years,
respectively, over Haryana and Punjab during monsoon
season. This may be due to the effects of land use changes,
particularly due to over-usage of irrigation water/creation
of large irrigation networks for growing rice, which is the
predominant crop during monsoon season in this part of the
region. At present, 97.4 % and 84 % of the cultivated area is
under irrigated situation in Punjab and Haryana, respective-
ly. These changes may have influenced the regional mon-
soon systems and thereby affected the hydrological cycle.
However, significant increasing trend of 26 mm/100 years
during June rainfall — this may be due to the increasing
trend of pre-monsoon showers.
& Significant increasing trend of rainfall at the rate of 26, 9
and 7 mm/100 years, respectively, have been noticed over
Bihar, Haryana and Punjab during May.
& Increasing trend of rainfall during October over 24 mete-
orological sub-divisions shows there may be an extended
period of monsoon season beyond September.
3.4 Trends in monthly, seasonal and annual temperature
A significant increasing trend of annual maximum temperature
of the order of 0.78 °C/100 years has been noticed over India
(Table 5). Interestingly, increasing trends of maximum temper-
ature has been noticed in all the months and seasons over India.
Significant increasing trend of maximum temperature occurred
in February and July to December. Higher significant increase of
1.43 °C/100 years has been noticed during November while a
lower increase of 0.56 °C/100 years has been noticed in July.
The important features are listed below:
& The highest annual increase of the maximum temperature
to the order of 1.20 °C/100 years was noticed over the
west coast.
& A significant increasing trend of 2.75 °C/100 years was
observed during the winter season over Western
Himalaya. Dimri and Dash (2012) also reported that not
only the average temperature but maximum and minimum
temperatures also increased with different rates in stations
located in western Himalaya in the last three decades. The
fluctuation in these temperature trends may be due to the
complex topography and thereby different thermodynam-
ic and orographic forcing at individual stations in this part
of the region.
Table 4 Sen estimator of slope (mm/year) for monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall for different meteorological subdivisions and homogeneous rainfall regions of India

Div. no. Sub division/region Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec JF MAM JJAS OND Annual

Meteorological sub-divisions
3 Assam and Meghalaya −0.03 0.01 0.07 −0.15 −0.42 −0.53 0.15 −0.61 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 −0.09 −0.43 −0.71 0.00 −1.33
4 Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura 0.00 −0.03 0.19 −0.14 0.43 −0.25 −0.28 −0.66 −0.01 −0.09 0.03 0.04 −0.05 0.38 −1.01 0.01 −0.63
5 West Bengal 0.01 −0.05 −0.01 0.14 −0.16 −1.04 0.89 −0.52 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.06 −0.05 −0.06 −1.27 0.10 −1.07
6 Gangetic West Bengal 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.13 0.10 −0.24 0.06 0.06 0.66 0.25 0.04 0.09 −0.01 0.27 0.66 0.39 1.32
7 Orissa 0.00 −0.02 0.01 0.12 0.13 −0.16 −0.59 −0.22 −0.22 0.06 0.04 0.00 −0.06 0.25 −1.31 0.00 −0.87
8 Jharkhand −0.03 −0.11 −0.02 0.05 0.12 −0.01 −0.60 −0.71 0.23 0.11 −0.06 0.07 −0.28 0.13 −0.95 0.17 −1.10
9 Bihar 0.01 −0.04 −0.01 0.05 0.26 −0.11 0.21 −0.72 −0.02 0.17 −0.03 0.07 −0.06 0.33 −0.77 0.23 −0.26
10 East Uttar Pradesh 0.03 −0.01 −0.01 0.02 0.05 0.27 −0.44 −0.34 0.53 0.02 −0.05 0.03 −0.06 0.03 0.33 0.06 0.12
11 West Uttar Pradesh −0.03 0.00 −0.01 0.00 0.06 0.20 0.21 0.39 0.01 0.02 −0.02 0.02 −0.10 0.05 0.47 0.04 0.35
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in India

13 Haryana −0.02 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.26 0.52 0.50 −0.16 0.00 0.02 0.00 −0.03 0.10 1.12 −0.04 1.12
14 Punjab −0.08 0.08 0.06 0.02 0.07 0.33 0.67 0.17 0.20 0.00 0.01 −0.04 −0.06 0.13 1.63 −0.06 1.69
17 West Rajasthan 0.00 0.00 −0.03 0.04 0.05 0.15 0.38 −0.14 −0.07 0.04 0.02 −0.02 0.00 0.07 0.24 0.00 0.37
18 East Rajasthan −0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 −0.10 −0.07 −0.12 0.02 0.04 −0.02 −0.03 0.04 −0.40 0.01 −0.26
19 West Madhya Pradesh 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 −0.04 −0.39 0.80 −0.07 0.06 −0.05 0.05 −0.01 −0.01 0.17 0.07 0.40
20 East Madhya Pradesh 0.00 −0.03 −0.02 −0.01 0.02 −0.07 −1.09 0.23 −0.04 0.05 −0.07 0.05 −0.05 −0.04 −0.75 −0.03 −0.88
21 Gujarat −0.01 0.01 −0.01 0.00 −0.01 0.18 −0.50 0.36 −0.10 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.00 −0.01 −0.43 0.07 −0.25
22 Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu 0.00 −0.05 −0.02 0.00 0.01 0.20 −0.29 0.19 −0.02 0.01 0.11 −0.01 −0.04 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.22
23 Konkan and Goa 0.02 −0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.03 0.52 0.23 1.35 0.07 0.27 −0.01 0.02 0.01 0.05 1.90 0.27 2.45
24 Madhya Maharashtra −0.02 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.27 −0.39 0.32 −0.16 0.31 −0.05 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.23 0.37
25 Marathwada −0.02 −0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.68 −0.55 0.50 0.00 0.00 −0.01 0.04 0.44 0.59 1.27
26 Vidarbha 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 −0.27 −0.36 0.64 −0.69 0.22 −0.05 0.04 −0.03 0.00 −0.65 0.28 −0.62
27 Chattisgarh 0.00 −0.12 −0.04 −0.06 −0.02 −0.10 −0.64 −0.75 −0.47 −0.09 −0.05 0.02 −0.21 −0.22 −1.75 −0.20 −2.30
28 Coastal Andhra Pradesh 0.00 0.05 −0.04 0.01 −0.04 0.01 0.09 0.25 −0.04 0.45 0.13 0.06 −0.01 −0.05 0.36 0.58 1.36
29 Telangana 0.03 −0.08 0.00 −0.03 0.02 −0.15 −0.05 0.78 −0.56 0.45 0.00 0.01 −0.01 −0.02 0.09 0.50 0.59
30 Rayalaseema −0.16 −0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.20 0.40 −0.18 0.42 0.01 0.03 −0.04 0.20 0.47 0.46 0.98
31 Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry −0.11 0.00 −0.02 −0.04 −0.01 −0.04 0.11 −0.08 0.12 −0.20 0.02 0.21 −0.19 −0.07 0.14 0.00 −0.33
32 Coastal Karnataka −0.01 −0.03 −0.02 0.01 0.29 1.18 0.27 1.76 −0.30 0.34 −0.08 0.01 −0.03 0.39 2.91 0.20 3.42
33 North Interior Karnataka −0.03 −0.03 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.31 −0.45 0.22 −0.14 0.52 −0.04 0.02 −0.05 0.14 −0.04 0.53 0.73
34 South Interior Karnataka −0.05 −0.03 −0.02 0.07 −0.19 0.04 −0.47 0.11 0.33 0.16 −0.02 0.01 −0.04 −0.16 0.03 0.10 0.13
35 Kerala −0.02 0.02 −0.09 0.17 −0.23 −0.66 −1.54 0.40 −0.02 −0.18 −0.15 −0.09 −0.07 −0.16 −2.25 −0.40 −2.88
Homogeneous Rainfall Region
1 North East India −0.02 0.00 0.11 −0.07 0.04 −0.42 0.06 −0.38 0.24 0.06 0.04 0.02 −0.07 0.07 −0.57 0.15 −0.40
2 Central North East India 0.00 −0.04 −0.01 0.07 0.14 −0.04 −0.26 −0.28 0.04 0.10 0.01 0.00 −0.09 0.18 −0.27 0.08 −0.10
3 North West India −0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.25 0.12 0.11 −0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 −0.01 0.06 0.15 0.03 0.37
4 West Central India 0.00 −0.03 −0.02 −0.01 0.03 −0.07 −0.41 0.37 −0.32 0.24 −0.01 0.00 −0.05 −0.03 −0.27 0.18 −0.20
5 Peninsular India −0.05 0.01 −0.03 0.03 −0.04 −0.03 −0.15 0.11 0.04 0.14 −0.02 0.10 −0.10 −0.04 0.00 0.17 0.19
India −0.03 −0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 −0.02 −0.19 0.06 −0.07 0.17 0.00 0.02 −0.07 0.03 −0.12 0.16 0.07

Bold values indicate statistical significance at 95 % confidence level as per the Mann–Kendall test (+ for increasing and−for decreasing)
 N. Subash, A.K. Sikka

Table 5 Sen estimator of slope (°C/100 years) for monthly maximum, minimum, mean and range of temperature for different homogeneous temperature
regions of India

Months/seasons Maximum temperature Minimum temperature

WC EC IP NE NC NW WH AI WC EC IP NE NC NW WH AI

Jan 1.35 0.90 0.67 0.45 0.00 0.61 2.54 0.57 −0.13 0.46 0.38 0.00 0.00 −0.71 0.00 0.00
Feb 1.85 1.05 1.01 1.54 1.13 0.96 3.00 1.31 0.13 0.77 0.78 0.67 0.45 0.00 1.04 0.53
Mar 1.36 0.85 0.62 0.64 0.77 0.64 1.15 0.82 0.26 0.71 0.81 0.23 0.48 0.15 0.73 0.43
Apr 1.03 0.58 0.53 1.05 0.85 0.76 1.63 0.77 0.25 0.34 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.00
May 0.77 0.32 0.14 0.61 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 −0.27 −0.25 −0.43 0.00
June 1.04 0.00 0.24 0.83 0.46 0.00 0.23 0.43 0.22 0.00 0.00 −0.21 −0.44 −0.36 0.00 −0.11
July 1.04 0.42 0.59 0.57 1.16 0.37 −0.43 0.56 0.20 0.00 0.33 −0.29 0.00 −0.16 0.00 −0.03
Aug 0.81 0.27 0.00 1.15 0.79 0.86 0.00 0.59 0.26 0.11 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 −0.67 0.00
Sept 1.34 0.71 0.74 0.58 0.58 0.80 1.00 0.71 0.27 0.10 0.28 −0.61 −0.15 0.00 0.33 0.00
Oct 1.22 0.65 0.29 1.25 0.87 0.61 1.16 0.75 0.22 0.26 0.47 0.16 0.82 0.16 0.91 0.43
Nov 1.38 1.25 1.02 1.91 1.63 0.94 0.19 1.43 0.40 0.63 0.86 1.09 1.47 0.43 1.57 0.97
Dec 1.79 1.25 1.00 1.69 1.40 1.25 1.08 1.36 0.37 0.70 0.71 1.04 1.00 0.00 1.08 0.70
JF 1.57 1.00 0.83 0.93 0.37 0.63 2.75 0.89 0.00 0.68 0.63 0.33 0.24 −0.40 0.51 0.26
MAM 1.04 0.56 0.47 0.77 0.64 0.58 0.88 0.65 0.29 0.42 0.35 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.29 0.19
JJAS 1.04 0.33 0.36 0.76 0.68 0.48 0.34 0.55 0.25 0.11 0.25 −0.23 −0.18 −0.16 0.00 −0.06
OND 1.47 1.03 0.83 1.67 1.33 1.01 0.67 1.18 0.39 0.52 0.63 0.79 1.09 0.19 1.11 0.72
Annual 1.20 0.67 0.55 1.04 0.81 0.68 0.87 0.78 0.28 0.39 0.47 0.19 0.32 −0.10 0.48 0.26
Mean temperature Temperature range
Jan 0.55 0.71 0.60 0.11 −0.08 −0.09 1.35 0.21 1.47 0.55 0.00 0.65 −0.13 1.05 2.14 0.62
Feb 0.98 0.93 0.92 1.14 0.81 0.54 2.00 0.92 1.62 0.30 0.00 0.73 0.53 0.91 1.80 0.71
Mar 0.83 0.75 0.70 0.39 0.62 0.45 0.95 0.63 1.09 0.13 −0.11 0.53 0.00 0.29 0.36 0.24
Apr 0.66 0.44 0.34 0.51 0.45 0.40 1.00 0.44 0.77 0.20 0.20 0.93 0.82 0.67 1.11 0.62
May 0.48 0.27 0.00 0.26 −0.08 −0.17 −0.31 0.00 0.61 0.12 0.00 0.60 0.63 0.27 0.40 0.40
June 0.65 0.08 0.22 0.32 0.00 −0.16 0.10 0.12 0.70 0.00 0.00 1.11 1.03 0.61 0.22 0.67
July 0.60 0.22 0.41 0.13 0.50 0.07 −0.22 0.26 0.86 0.32 0.28 0.83 1.23 0.55 −0.39 0.62
Aug 0.50 0.19 0.00 0.53 0.36 0.45 −0.26 0.28 0.57 0.16 −0.21 1.17 0.79 0.79 0.56 0.59
Sept 0.83 0.38 0.50 0.00 0.11 0.44 0.59 0.31 1.03 0.67 0.48 1.29 0.77 0.72 0.45 0.83
Oct 0.75 0.45 0.42 0.71 0.82 0.42 1.04 0.63 0.91 0.37 −0.20 1.11 0.00 0.28 0.61 0.30
Nov 1.00 0.91 0.93 1.53 1.67 0.75 0.95 1.23 1.13 0.56 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.53 −1.37 0.22
Dec 1.11 1.00 0.92 1.39 1.10 0.59 1.00 1.06 1.45 0.56 0.34 0.77 0.36 1.33 0.00 0.63
JF 0.79 0.79 0.75 0.63 0.32 0.06 1.61 0.59 1.59 0.40 0.24 0.71 0.19 1.05 1.95 0.70
MAM 0.65 0.45 0.39 0.42 0.35 0.33 0.56 0.42 0.80 0.19 0.06 0.78 0.57 0.50 0.65 0.46
JJAS 0.66 0.21 0.33 0.20 0.24 0.18 0.12 0.23 0.79 0.30 0.08 1.07 0.83 0.59 0.14 0.58
OND 0.95 0.79 0.73 1.23 1.19 0.52 0.94 0.96 1.13 0.50 0.00 0.83 0.08 0.81 −0.29 0.45
Annual 0.73 0.51 0.50 0.58 0.53 0.27 0.63 0.50 0.98 0.32 0.11 0.89 0.46 0.69 0.61 0.53

Bold values indicate statistical significance at 95 % confidence level as per the Mann-Kendall test (+ for increasing and−for decreasing)

& A significant increasing trend of 0.94 °C and 1.25 °C/
100 years, respectively, during November and December
over the North West will be harmful to wheat as this period
falls during its fertilization/vegetative stage.
A significant increasing trend in the annual minimum tem-
perature of 0.26 °C/100 years has been noticed over India. All
months and seasons, except monsoon season in June and July,
showed an increasing trend in minimum temperature. The
highest increasing trend of annual minimum temperature to
the order of 0.48 °C/100 years has been noticed over the
Western Himalayan region followed by 0.47 °C/100 years over
the Interior Peninsula. The magnitude of the increasing trend
of annual maximum temperature compared to the minimum
temperature shows higher daytime evaporative demand and
therefore a higher water requirement for crops. A significant
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in India
Fig. 2 Relation between seasonal and annual trends in maximum temperature and rainfall over different meteorological subdivisions of India
increasing trend of the annual mean temperature in the order of
0.5 °C/100 years has been observed over India. This varies from
0.27 °C/100 years (non-significant) over the North West to
0.73 °C/100 years over the Western coast. This mean tempera-
ture shows an increasing trend over all homogeneous regions in
all months except January and May in the North Central region,
January, May and June in the North West and July to August in
the Western Himalayas. As far as plant transpiration and growth
are concerned, the temperature range is more important than the
maximum, minimum and mean temperatures. The most signif-
icant increasing trend of annual temperature range in the order of
0.98 °C/100 years has been observed over the West coast
followed by 0.89 °C/100 years over the North East.
3.5 Relation between trends in rainfall and maximum
and minimum temperature
As far as India as a whole is concerned, an increasing
trend has been noticed for the annual maximum and minimum
temperature (both significant at 95 % confidence level) and
the annual rainfall (not significant). This means that tempera-
ture plays a major role in addition to other factors of the
hydrological cycle, influencing hydrological processes in a
broad spatial pattern with direct or indirect way which leads to
higher rates of evapotranspiration and thereby cloud forma-
tion and increase of precipitation. As far as seasonal variation
is concerned, during winter, only one meteorological subdivi-
sion Konkan and Goa noticed both increasing trends in rain-
fall and maximum temperature (Fig. 2). Another important
aspect that emerged from this study was that Eastern Madhya
Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Kerala subdivisions showed positive
trends in maximum temperature and negative trends in rainfall
during all seasons while Gangetic West Bengal, East Uttar
Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Marathwada, Rayalaseema,
Coastal Karnataka and North interior Karnataka showed the
pattern of increasing trends in maximum temperature and
increasing trends in rainfall during summer, monsoon and
post-monsoon seasons. This clearly shows that there are def-
initely large-scale spatial differences in the relation of trends in
rainfall and maximum temperature over India. This may be

JAN
APR
JULY
OCT
Fig. 3 Relation between monthly trends in maximum temperature and rainfall over different meteorological subdivisions of India
due to the difference in non-uniform changes in land use
pattern, intensity of irrigation development and variation in
man-made developmental activities. As far as summer and
post-monsoon seasons are concerned, both temperature and
rainfall show an increasing trend. When we look at the mete-
orological sub-divisional rainfall pattern within the homoge-
neous temperature regions, the same pattern followed in most
of cases. Under West coast homogeneous temperature region,
Kerala (35) subdivision shows a decreasing trend of rain-
fall in all seasons with an increasing trend of maximum and
N. Subash, A.K. Sikka
FEB
MAR
JUNE
MAY
SEP
AUG
NOV DEC
minimum temperature. There is no clear relationship between
trends in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall
during the monsoon months, which is a main rainfall season.
This may be due to the undulating nature of the orography,
and land use pattern influenced the monsoonal systems
locally/regionally and thereby modified the climate accord-
ingly. As far as monthly pattern is concerned, no definite
pattern exists in relation between trends in maximum temper-
ature and rainfall in any month (Fig. 3). However, in March,
all coastal meteorological subdivisions, except the eastern part
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in India
WINTER
MONSOON
ANNUAL
Fig. 4 Relation between seasonal trends in minimum and rainfall over different meteorological subdivisions of India
of the country, show increase in maximum temperature with
the decrease of rainfall. Interestingly, the subdivision with the
increasing trend in maximum temperature and rainfall in
1 month showed an increasing trend in maximum temperature
and decreasing trend in another month. This shows there is no
direct relationship between increasing rainfall and increasing
maximum temperature when monthly or seasonal pattern is
concerned over meteorological subdivisions of India.
SUMMER
POST MONSOON
Annual maximum temperature shows an increasing trend in
all the homogeneous temperature regions, and corresponding
annual rainfall also follow the same pattern in all regions,
except the North East. However during post-monsoon maxi-
mum and minimum temperature and rainfall showed an in-
creasing trend in all homogeneous temperature regions, except
West coast. Interestingly, all the homogeneous temperature
regions show an increasing trend in maximum temperature
 N. Subash, A.K. Sikka

MAR
JAN FEB

APR MAY JUNE

JULY SEP
AUG

OCT NOV DEC

Fig. 5 Relation between monthly trends in minimum temperature and rainfall over different meteorological subdivisions of India

during monsoon season and decreasing rainfall activity, except
West coast. When you look at the summer season, maximum
and minimum temperature and rainfall show an increasing
trend except in the Interior Peninsular region. However, during
winter season, the situation is reversed, i.e., increasing trends of
maximum and minimum temperature and decreasing trend in
rainfall. As far as monthly analysis is concerned, no definite
pattern has been observed between trends in maximum and
minimum temperature and rainfall, except during October.
Where minimum temperature is concerned, all four categories
of scenarios exist over India (Fig. 4). However, an increasing
trend in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in rainfall
were noticed over eastern India subdivisions except eastern
Uttar Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal. During winter, more
than half of the meteorological subdivisions, decreasing trends
in rainfall and increasing trends in minimum temperature were
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in India
observed. However, during monsoon season, all southern me-
teorological divisions except Kerala, north interior Karnataka
noted increasing rainfall and increasing trends in minimum
temperature. As far as monthly pattern is concerned, during
May increasing trends in rainfall and decreasing trends in
minimum temperature were noticed over the northwestern part
of the country (Fig. 5). Thus, from this study, we can make a
conclusion that the relation between the trends of rainfall and
temperature have large-scale spatial and temporal dependence.
4 Conclusions
This paper deals with the variability and long-term trends of
monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall, maximum, minimum,
mean and range of temperature over India. It also investigated
the possibility of any rational relationship between trends in
rainfall and temperature over the homogeneous regions over
India. The study provides some scenarios of pattern of maxi-
mum, minimum, mean and range of temperature and rainfall,
which may be used for sensitivity analysis of water demand–
supply of the hydrological cycle of the Indian subcontinent.
This study shows that there is no direct relationship between
increasing rainfall and increasing maximum temperature when
monthly or seasonal pattern is concerned over meteorological
subdivisions of India. As far as minimum temperature is
concerned, we can make a conclusion that the relations be-
tween the trends of rainfall and temperature have large-scale
spatial and temporal dependence. The nature of rational rela-
tions between trends in rainfall and temperature largely varies
with spatial and temporal scale, and hence there is a need to
study at the micro level, at least at the administrative district
level, so that the reasons for these trends can be narrated. The
results of this study demonstrated the importance of spatial
domain to be considered for analysis because of the conflicting
outcome with regional/local landscape, orography or man-
made land changes.
Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to one anonymous re-
viewer and Editor-in-Chief for critically going through the manuscript
and giving valuable suggestions which improved the quality of the
manuscript.
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