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Wake up Call
Cement: Dispatches to grow by 2%YoY in December’18
December 31, 2018

◼ We present provisional cement numbers for the month of December’18. Total cement dispatches are Company Wise Cement Dispatches
expected to clock in at 3.8mn tons, up 2%YoY. Wherein local dispatches are expected to be lower by ('000 tons) Dec-17 Dec-18 YoYD 1HFY18 1HFY19 YoYD
LUCK 616 660 7% 3,678 3,971 8%
5%YoY to 3.2mn tons, while, exports are likely to post growth of 73%YoY to 0.6mn tons. Thus, Local 540 503 -7% 3,211 2,969 -8%
1HFY19 cement dispatches are expected to reach 22.8mn tons, higher by 3%YoY. Exports 76 156 106% 468 1,002 114%
DGKC 431 553 28% 2,491 2,711 9%
◼ Decline in local dispatches is primarily due to slowdown in construction activities amid anticipated Local 375 429 15% 2,218 2,216 0%
slowdown in GDP and lower PSDP. Exports 56 124 122% 272 495 82%
MLCF 282 267 -5% 1,737 1,525 -12%
Local 266 234 -12% 1,581 1,379 -13%
◼ Region wise cement numbers show that north region is expected to remain laggard in the month of Exports 16 33 100% 156 147 -6%
December’18, as local and export dispatches are expected to be lower by 9%YoY and 3%YoY, PIOC 124 127 3% 735 766 4%
respectively. Local 117 117 0% 707 705 0%
Exports 6 9 48% 28 60 115%
CHCC 194 171 -12% 1,259 1,032 -18%
◼ On the other hand, South region is expected to post significant growth of 49%YoY, where local Local 180 150 -17% 1,027 878 -15%
dispatches are expected to increase by 15%YoY, while exports are expected to post exceptional Exports 14 21 52% 231 153 -34%
growth of 260%YoY. Export numbers also include clinker sales. ACPL 176 261 48% 1,075 1,663 55%
Local 137 152 11% 842 963 14%
◼ We maintain ‘Market-Weight’ stance on cement sector. Exports 39 110 180% 233 700 201%
KOHC 177 191 8% 1,097 1,130 3%
Local 171 182 7% 1,040 1,072 3%
Region Wise Cement Dispatches Exports 7 10 43% 57 58 1%
'000 tons Dec-17 Dec-18 YoYD 1HFY18 1HFY19 YoYD FCCL 290 255 -12% 1,627 1,527 -6%
North 3,050 2,780 -9% 18,253 16,679 -9% Local 270 245 -9% 1,435 1,393 -3%
Local 2,817 2,555 -9% 16,454 15,212 -8% Exports 21 9 -54% 191 134 -30%
Exports 232 225 -3% 1,799 1,467 -18% FECTC 66 56 -16% 397 335 -15%
Local 62 51 -18% 353 247 -30%
South 681 1,014 49% 3,990 6,124 53%
Exports 5 5 7% 44 88 99%
Local 586 672 15% 3,382 4,066 20%
BWCL 448 683 53% 3,874 4,045 4%
Exports 95 343 260% 608 2,059 239%
Local 375 613 64% 3,378 3,570 6%
Total local 3,403 3,227 -5% 19,836 19,278 -3% Exports 73 70 -4% 496 475 -4%
Total Exports 328 568 73% 2,407 3,526 47% Source: Sherman Research
Total Dispatches 3,731 3,795 2% 22,242 22,804 3%
Note: South region exports include clincker sales
Source: Sherman Research

Sherman Research is also available on S&P Capital IQ, Thomson Reuters Eikon, FactSet and MG-Link Saqib Hussain Khan
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