Burmese Perspectives

Letter from Guildford

18 December 2010

Myanmar after the Elections

"So far, I have not got the impression that economic sanctions have really hurt the public, but
of course there are other voices that are perhaps still waiting to be heard, so we have yet to
find out. I have been released just for over a month, and I haven't had time to go into this
issue; I am waiting to read the latest report of the IMF, and perhaps the ADB and other
economic institutions."
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi - Interview with Deutsche Welle 16 December 2010

Since her release from house arrest on 13 November 2010, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been
inundated with high-level visitors, telephone calls from heads of government and foreign
ministers and mountains of documentation. Laura Bush, her greatest fan, has also now joined
1
the fray. It is no wonder that Suu Kyi is feeling somewhat overwhelmed. It has not helped
that her advisers are mostly octogenarian writers and lawyers whose knowledge of the
modern world has been restricted by years in prison. Her natural inclination would be to delay
any definitive pronouncements until she had regained her composure and had the opportunity
to discuss issues in depth. But yesterday she astonishingly ruled out any rejuvenation of her
party. 2

My own modest contribution during my recent visit to Myanmar was to leave for her attention
3
a one-page brief on sanctions. My experience in Whitehall was that the shorter the brief, the
more likely Ministers and senior officials would actually read it. I would like to think that if Suu
Kyi had only read this briefest of briefs, she would not have said 10 days later that she had
"not got the impression that economic sanctions have really hurt the public," when what I had
written was the exact opposite.

It might, of course, have been kept from her by the octogenarian "Uncles" I met when I
happened to drift unintentionally into an event at the Headquarters of the National League for
Democracy on the occasion of World Aids Day and was sat among the "Uncles" on the
assumption that I must have been invited, when I was in fact a gate-crasher. Suu Kyi glanced
at me only briefly as I made my disruptive entrance when taken in by an NLD steward, and I
had no chance to talk to her as, at the appointed time, all the foreigners were ushered out,
myself included. But I managed to leave my card with local contact details as well as a letter
and brief which included extracts from the House of Lords debate on 12 October 2007 on
4
sanctions. Lord Howell of Guildford then commented that sanctions "have hurt ordinary

1
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101217/ts_alt_afp/usmyanamardiplomacybush
2
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101217/wl_asia_afp/myanmarpoliticsoppositionsuukyi
3
http://www.networkmyanmar.org/images/stories/PDF6/si.pdf
4
http://www.networkmyanmar.org/images/stories/PDF6/lords.pdf

1
people and made zero impact on progress to democratisation," but as Minister of State on 15
December 2010 he told the Lords that the regime feels that sanctions "are both hostile and
damaging to their nation and target those who are richer and more comfortably ensconced
rather than the ordinary people of Burma." I never cease to marvel at how ministerial office
can change perceptions. I personally doubt that the SPDC leaders, who are multi-millionaires,
feel in any way materially affected by the West's scatter-gun sanctions, whatever their
5
psychological impact. As Professor Egreteau has recently commented, sanctions should
perhaps be relaxed only slowly to enable the Burmese economy to readjust.

I had no way of knowing, of course, whether the "Uncles" would deign to show my letter to
Suu Kyi. When I left for Yangon Airport on 7 December, I was not surprised that I had not
been invited to meet her. Indeed, I had not asked for, nor even suggested a meeting. I found
myself with about 90 minutes to go in the Departure Lounge (beyond Customs and
Immigration), which was almost deserted, when to my surprise I spotted Suu Kyi alone with
her son Kim who was leaving by another flight. It did not take me long to discover that she
had not seen my letter which she was however sure would be waiting for her in her office
(unless, of course, the "Uncles" had disposed of it, which I regard as at least possible). She
may or may not have remembered me from a previous call I made on her in December 1999.

I was disappointed to hear her say that she still needed to discuss a relaxation of NLD
opposition to travel and tourism with her Executive Committee, whatever might have been
reported in the press. 6 I formed the impression that she was unlikely to make any
concessions of any kind on sanctions or tourism until she could see political benefit to her
position. She may well feel that any concessions on her part on these issues would be a gift
to the regime from which she might gain no political advantage. Indeed, the political
imperative with her currently outweighs all economic and financial issues.

An Agence France-Presse report dated 17 December 2010 quotes her as saying that she
was not planning to offer support for an end to US and EU punitive measures in return for
concessions from the regime. 7 "I don't look at sanctions as a bargaining chip, but as a way of
trying to improve the situation." The US Congress and Administration, however, look at
sanctions very much, indeed almost exclusively in this context.

On tourism, Suu Kyi is quoted as saying that the NLD has softened its previous opposition to
tourists visiting Myanmar, although the party says people should avoid joining tour groups

5
http://www.ceri-sciences-po.org/archive/2010/decembre/art_re.pdf
6
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,730390,00.html - "I was informed that the European
Union has debated this issue. It has spoken out against group tours where Burmese government
facilities are used. It endorses individual trips, however, which could benefit private companies. I haven't
had an opportunity to speak with the European Union about this. But it is essential that people see what
is actually happening in this country."
7
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101217/wl_asia_afp/myanmarpoliticsoppositionsuukyi

2
because the government could benefit financially. She said her party's senior members had
decided several months ago, while she was under house arrest, that they would "stand
strongly against group tourists". But "they would not object to individual tourists coming to
study the situation and to find out what is really happening in Burma. This would also bring
income into private enterprises." In point of fact, group tourists are handled more by private
agencies than by the State. This is particularly true of cruise ships which are handled by the
local private company of Diethelms, the Swiss travel operators. The Orient Express 'Road to
Mandalay' river cruise ship is handled by another private company, Tour Mandalay. There
would unfortunately seem to be no one in Suu Kyi's ill-informed and rapidly aging entourage
with the knowledge and experience to tell her the facts. A major complaint of the non-crony
business community is that the NLD has made no attempt to maintain links with them over the
years, though they were the backbone of support for the party in the heady days of 1989 and
1990.

So I switched the subject to China, which I guessed had not featured all that much in her
many talks and discussions. I had left with her a copy of Ambassador Cheng Ruisheng's
recent article in The Hague Journal of Diplomacy on his four years in Yangon 1987-1991.8
Suu Kyi said she recalled Ambassador Cheng with respect and appreciation. I told her of my
meeting the previous day (6 December) with the Chinese Chargé d'Affaires Wang Zongying,
who had asked about her attitude to sanctions. Suu Kyi hoped that she might meet a Chinese
representative soon. She is well aware that Wang is a Myanmar expert of long standing.

Suu Kyi must find it very tedious to meet so many diplomats, journalists and individuals, many
of whom seem to be acting out a pro-forma requirement without having any definitive
contribution to make. The "Uncles" on the other hand are doing their best to block access to
her by those who might have an independent view. Others who have access to her are finding
it hard going in their attempts to "educate" her about economic and financial realities in the
hope of persuading her to use her influence in a positive and reconciliatory way. They would
persuade her to avoid confrontation with the government over the legitimacy of the NLD
whose deregistration is a fait accompli despite an outstanding NLD appeal to the Supreme
Court against deregistration. There are other NLD initiatives in the offing which look
destabilising, such as plans to support another so-called "Panglong" Conference on ethnic
reconciliation which is fraught with difficulties and which finds no favour with the regime. As

8
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mnp/hjd/2010/00000005/00000004/art00006
An extract: "At the lunch [hosted on 14 September 1988 by the Bangladeshi Ambassador], Aung San
Suu Kyi briefed the foreign envoys present on the situation in Myanmar, saying that she and other
leaders of the opposition had clearly told the Myanmar Election Commission that what the opposition
wanted was an interim government and not a general election. Exploring the possibility of a compromise,
I asked Aung San Suu Kyi whether the opposition could agree to an interim government composed of
neutral personalities. Aung San Suu Kyi answered no, adding that the interim government must be
composed of those persons acceptable to the people (that is, the opposition). From Aung San Suu Kyi’s
talk, I felt that there was no possibility of compromise between Myanmar’s government and the
opposition. Indeed, after just four days, the Myanmar Army seized power."

3
Ambassador Cheng felt in 1988, there likewise seems in 2010 to be little possibility of
compromise between Suu Kyi and the government, now in transition. The reality is that those
who wield power have no interest at the present time in discussions with a defunct party
which opted out of the constitutional process, however flawed it might be.

I found most thinking Burmese saddened that the regime had gone for overkill in the electoral
process, thus ensuring that what might have just been credible on the day was subsequently
made not in the least credible through the blatant manipulation of advance voting. The
statistics, already available in Burmese, have yet to be analysed definitively, but it would
seem that advance voting, which was as high as 36% in the Zayarthiri constituency in Nay Pyi
Taw for SPDC member Thura U Shwe Man, could have averaged well over 10% nation-wide.
U Thein Soe, the Chairman of the Union Election Commission, had said at a briefing given in
Nay Pyi Taw on 18 October 2010 that: "The numbers of those casting advance votes are
compiled by the township election commission. The categories include those under
hospitalization, under detention, military personnel on duty, training and those abroad. These
numbers are small." 9 In the event the numbers were very much larger than U Thein Soe
might have bargained for, though to his credit he is said to have insisted that advance votes
should be recorded and declared separately. I heard many stories of how ordinary voters had
cast their ballots in advance for the Union Solidarity and Development Party in return for
services promised or provided. A tick of appreciation in the right box of a voting form might
even be seen by some as a legitimate exercise of their democratic rights. The West, of course,
would not agree.

As snow again blankets Guildford, may I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New
Year. I fear that in 2011 the Burma/ Myanmar issue will still be with us, to the extent that the
West can ratchet up the issue as an international political priority, while the East seeks to
dampen it down as much as they can. For sure, no meeting of minds there.

Derek Tonkin
Chairman Network Myanmar

9
UNDP record