COH 315: Epidemiology

Midterm Exam

MAXIMUM 150 points

Calculations: Answer the following questions in the space provided. Show all of your work.

(5 points each)

1. Calculate the attack rate for those who ate potato salad using the data in Table 1.

Table 1. Food-specific attack rates for items consumed

ATE DIDN’T EAT

Item consumed Sick Well Sick Well

Potato salad 80 10 90 30
Potato chips 70 25 35 70

80/90 or 0.89 or 89%

2. Calculate the incidence rate of SARS in Shanghai in 2004 using the data in Table 2.

Table 2. SARS cases in Shanghai China

Year confirmed cases population at risk

2004 137 16, 740,000

2005 115 17, 560,000

(137 / 16,740,000) x 1,000,000 = 8.18 per 1 million

3. Calculate the prevalence rate of hypertension in the US in 2000 using the data in Table 3.

Table 3. People with Hypertension in the United States

Year new cases existing cases population

1999 400,000 60,000,000 275,000,000

2000 375,000 65,000,000 300,000,000

(375,000 + 65,000,000 / 300,000,000) x 100 = 21.7 Per 100

 4. Calculate the annual death rate from all causes for Tanzania in 2005 using the data in Table 4.

Table 4. Deaths in Tanzania (population 40,000,000)

Year malaria HIV/AIDS heart disease diarrhea all other causes

2005 8,000 4,000 1,000 10,000 5,000

(28,000 / 40,000,000) x 1,000,000 = 700 per Million

5. Calculate the specific death rate due to malaria in Tanzania in 2005 using the data in Table 4.

(8,000 / 40,000,000) x 1,000,000 = 200 per Million

6. Calculate the proportionate mortality rate due to HIV/AIDS in Tanzania in 2005 using the data in
Table 4.

(4,000 / 28,000) x 1,000 = 142.86 per 1,000

7. Calculate the case fatality rate for prostate cancer for the year 2008 using the data in Table 5.

Table 5. Prostate Cancer

New diagnoses 2007-2008 alive 1 year after diagnosis alive 5 years after diagnosis

6,500 6,450 6,200

(50 / 6,500) x 100 = 76%

8. Calculate the age-adjusted rate of osteoporosis in Tuscany and Naples using the direct method
and data in Table 6.

Table 6. Osteoporosis in Tuscany and Naples

Age Standard Pop. Tuscany pop. Tuscany rate per 1000 Naples Pop. Naples rate per 1000

0-50 800,000 500,000 80 300,000 10

50+ 500,000 400,000 160 800,000 25

Tuscany = 72,000 / 1,300,000 = 72 / 1,300 or 0.06 = 60 per 1,000

Naples = 92,500 / 1,300,000 = 92.5 / 1,300 or 0.07 = 70 per 1,000

 9. Calculate the sensitivity of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in Table 7.

Table 7. Alcohol Screening Test

Results of the Screening Alcoholic non-alcoholic

Positive 160 320

Negative 40 480

160 / (160 + 40) = 0.80 or 80%

10. Calculate the specificity of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in Table 7.

480 / (480 + 320) = 0.60 or 60%

11. Calculate the percentage of false negatives of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in
Table 7.

40 / (40 + 160) = 0.2 or 20%

12. Calculate the percentage of false positives of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in
Table 7.
320 / (480 + 320) = 0.4 or 40%

13. Calculate the positive predictive value of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in
Table 7.

160 / (160 + 320) = 0.33 or 33%

14. Calculate the probability of surviving 5 years using the data from Table 8.

Table 8. Probability of Survival for Each Year of the Study

P1 = 52.5%

P2= 46.1%

P3 = 65.5%

P4= 69.6%
 P5 = 80.0%

P6 = 95%

P7 = 98%

(52.5%) x (46.1%) x (65.5%) x (69.6%) x (80.0%) = 8.83%

15. Calculate the power of a study given that the probability of a type I error is 0.05 and the
probability of type II error is 0.80.

1 – 0.80 = 0.2