Tourist hotspots turn to ghost towns as people flee Bali volcano threat

Mount Agung’s rumblings have prompted a mass exodus, leaving the future even
more uncertain in a region so reliant on tourism
Tourist hotspots on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali have turned to virtual ghost towns as
residents and visitors clear out en masse in response to the looming threat of Mount Agung
erupting.
In Tulamben, a small fishing village on Bali’s east coast within the officially designated 7.5-mile
(12km) danger zone, all hotels have shut down and there was not a single tourist in sight on
Friday. A message on a blackboard outside an empty cafe said “pray for us”.
Bali has been on edge since last week, when the threat level from the volcano was raised to
maximum and hundreds of volcanic earthquakes began to rattle the area on a daily basis.
“Tulamben is empty now,” said Made Pasaka, a dive instructor, squinting as he looked up at
Bali’s highest peak. “The last time there was an eruption they said it lasted one year and we
can’t imagine that. If it is the same again what are we going to do? We need to have a plan B.”
About 20 minutes down the road in Amed, more than 180 hotels have emptied of tourists.
“Everything is cancelled … some people are saying maybe, but then when it comes to the day
they cancel, so there are no people,” said Sarah Laight, a British hotel owner.
In the past week several governments, including in the UK, Australia and Singapore have
issued travel advisories, cautioning travellers that volcanic activity could interfere with their
plans.
In the event of an eruption and the possible closure of Ngurah Rai airport due to resulting ash,
the authorities in Bali have prepared for flights to be diverted to 10 airports across Indonesia.
Laight estimated there were about 20 tourists left in Amed, a situation that would have a huge
impact on the local economy if it went on much longer.
For now, some in Amed are less worried about the volcano than they are about the bule
(foreigners) leaving. “The people from the whole of the Amed area that work in tourism, which is
thousands of people, probably from today forward they don’t have a paycheck,” Laight said.
While Bali’s busiest areas appear normal, Laight, whose hotel opened 14 years ago, was
worried about the impact of sudden mass unemployment.
“If some of these people get overwhelmed with the debt and the banks, I don’t know what the
banks will do for them, if they will hold the interest, or the payments,” she said. “Probably
everyone has a loan for a motorbike, all the drivers have car loans, and then they are going to
start getting stressed.”
At a community meeting in Amed on Friday people discussed a “what if” scenario – the
stockpiles of water, food, masks, medical and generators that might be needed in the event of
an eruption.
There are more than 120 active volcanoes in Indonesia, which perilously straddles the “ring of
fire” – an area along the basin of the Pacific Ocean prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.
Volcanologists say the current seismological levels – the hundreds of internal earthquakes
occurring inside Agung each day – are unprecedented since Agung’s activity being measured
post-1963. The quakes, along with a new fracture in the crater that is emitting steam, indicate
rising levels of magmatic energy.
From the volcanology monitoring post in the village of Rendang, the seismologist Devy Kamil
Syahbana said the smoky vapour was likely to be groundwater heated by plates of magma
nearing Agung’s surface.
The volcanology post takes continuous readings from an analogue seismograph, the needle of
which twitches back and forth with every quake, as well as a digital equivalent, every six hours.
Data is also drawn from satellite images and tiltmeters.
Based on geological modelling, Syahbana explained, seismologists point to the possibility of
Mount Agung erupting at VEI3, or a volcanic explosivity index of three, with an opening eruption
height of more than six miles (10km). That, he said, pointing to a model drawn on his
whiteboard, would create a column that would then rain down dangerous pyroclastic flows.
It was also possible that Agung would not erupt but, at this point, the readings show the
probability of an eruption was higher than not, Syahbana said.
At the Rendang post, overlooking green ricefields and jungle leading to Agung’s cloud-covered
peak, the men of the village were nervous but still managed a joke. “The ones who can still run
are here,” said 42-year-old Nyoman Karyiarsa.
Summing up the mood, he said everyone in the village had a full tank of petrol in their bikes –
just in case.
Rendang, on the border of the danger zone, is technically safe but many women and children
have left. In the past week the number of refugees camped out in halls, temples and in the
homes of family and friends swelled to more than 136,000.
Many sleep at the camps at night and in the morning head to their homes, checking on their
livestock and other belongings.
Meanwhile, priests ride their motorbikes to the island’s “mother temple” of Besakih, on the
slopes of Agung, attempting to calm the rumbling mountain through prayer.
* The agency has also warned local communities of the possible dangers, including hot clouds
with a temperature of between 600-800C that might speed down Agung’s slope at up to
300kmh in the event of an eruption.

Bali volcano: will Mount Agung erupt and what happens if it does?
Potentially deadly pyroclastic flows, a briefly cooler climate and flight disruptions
are on the cards
An eruption at Bali’s Mount Agung volcano is imminent, according to experts.
Hundreds of tremors are being recorded at the site each day, and more than 75,000 people
evacuated in the past few days after local authorities declared a state of emergency.
But will it erupt? If it does, what’s likely to happen? And what will it mean for the tens of
thousands of Australians who plan to travel to the popular tourist destination in the next week?

Will Mount Agung erupt?

Last week Indonesian authorities announced the highest possible alert warning, and besides
the evacuations they’ve also set up an exclusion zone that stretches 12km from the crater in
some places.
Scott Bryan, an associate professor from the Queensland University of Technology, says there
have been “very good indications” that an eruption is imminent.
“The fact that the seismic tremors beneath the volcano are increasing in number, intensity, and
the reduction in their depth in the last week or so, is a very good indication that magma is
moving up to the surface,” he said.
As well as seismic activity, Bryan said there are two other signs that an eruption is imminent:
gas emissions from the summit, and bulging on the volcano’s surface.
He said gas emissions were a sign that pressure under the ground had become too great,
sending magma towards the summit of the volcano and releasing gas and steam in the
process.
“It’s like a bottle of Coke or champagne, if you shake them up the pressure builds until you
release the lid,” he said.

If it does, what happens next?

Mount Agung hasn’t erupted for more than 50 years. The last time it did, in 1963, more than
1,000 people were killed and hundreds more were injured.
Lava flowed for 7km from the crater, and the ABC reports that survivors of the catastrophe
recall a “rain of ashes”.
But the most deadly feature of the volcano were the devastating pyroclastic flows: waves of
superheated gas containing gas, ash and rock that can travel hundreds of kilometres an hour.
“Pyroclastic flows are the main hazard and threat in terms of killing a lot of people very quickly
with little to no warning,” Bryan said.
“If it’s at night and people are in bed they have literally seconds or minutes to move and people
get caught and trapped and die. It’s what caused the deaths in 1963, and at Mount Merapi in
2010.”
This time authorities have taken plenty of precautions, but Bryan said there was no way to be
totally sure of its impact.
“What we need to worry about when it does erupt is how much of the gasses have been able to
escape from magma,” he said.
“If you think about your bottle of Coke again, if you shake it up and take the lid off you get it all
foaming out, but, if you take the lid off, let it stand there for a day and then shake it, all the gas
has escaped and nothing happens.”

What will it mean for travellers?

About 1.2 million Australians visit Indonesia each year, and tens of thousands are expected to
flock to Bali in the next few weeks as most states break for school holidays.
So should travellers be worried?
The short answer is not unless you were planning a trip to see the summit of a volcano. Mount
Agung is located in Bali’s northeast, about 75 kilometres away from Kuta.
Jetstar, Qantas and Virgin all say they’re monitoring the situation, but are still flying as usual.
That could change in the event of an eruption though.
In 2015 thousands of Australian holidaymakers were stranded and flights were disrupted for
months after Mount Raung erupted. Bryan said that could easily occur again.
“As a rule, any ash in the atmosphere means it becomes a no-fly zone,” he said.
“As soon as there is an eruption there’s a big ash column there will most likely see air space
closed to traffic and planes diverted.
“Depending on the wind and how long the eruption goes for there could easily be a shutdown of
air space over Denpasar.”
It’s worth noting though that while Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has told
travellers to check with their airline before travelling, the overall level of travel advice to Bali has
not changed.

What will an eruption mean for the climate?

When volcanoes erupt, the Earth actually gets cooler.
In 1963, when Mount Agung last erupted, global temperatures dropped by between 0.1C and
0.4C.
And in 1991 the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines created a significant dip in global
temperatures of about 0.5C.
That might not sound like much, but Ubide explains that it can have a “significant impact”.
“Obviously you will not feel a massive change personally but it’s going to affect everything on
Earth because everything responds to climate,” she said.
But volcanos also contribute to global warming by releasing CO2; underwater and land-based
volcanoes are estimated to release between 100m–300m tonnes of CO2 each year.
Teresa Ubide, a lecturer in volcanology from the University of Queensland, explained that the
cooling was caused by sulphur emissions from the volcano.
“Basically what happens is volcanoes such as this one generate sulphur-based aerosols which
block radiation from the sun and therefore the climate is affected by a decrease in global
temperatures,” she said.

When two disasters saved Earth from a worse one

Hydrogen chloride from Mount Pinatubo could have caused serious damage to
the ozone layer. We were saved by a typhoon
In June 1991 the Philippine volcano, Mount Pinatubo, blew its top in spectacular fashion,
producing one of the greatest volcanic eruptions in the 20th Century. It is well known that this
eruption, which killed around 800 people and left 10,000 homeless, ejected so much dust into
the atmosphere that it had a major effect on climate, depressing global temperatures by around
0.5°C for a couple of years. But what is less commonly known is that if Typhoon Yunya hadn’t
coincided with the eruption, the impact could have been significantly worse.
Along with all the magma and ash, vast quantities of hydrogen chloride were pumped out of
Pinatubo. Had this hydrogen chloride reached the stratosphere it would have initiated chemical
reactions with chlorine (which is increased thanks to all chlorofluorocarbons – CFCs – we have
pumped out) and massively thinned Earth’s ozone layer. But luckily Typhoon Yunya powered its
way through the eruption plume and washed most of the hydrogen chloride out before it got
anywhere near the stratosphere.
Next time we might not be so lucky. New research suggests that future Pinatubo-esque
eruptions would likely cause serious thinning of the ozone layer, having a significant impact on
skin cancer rates, livestock mortality and crop yields. “The implications for surface life on Earth
from such a future eruption could be profound,” the scientists write in Geophysical Research
Letters. And even though we are doing a good job of reducing CFCs in the ozone layer, the
study showed that short-lived bromine (produced by marine plankton and micro-algae) will still
facilitate this dramatic ozone thinning reaction in the stratosphere for decades to come.