Decision under Uncertainty is made on the basis of Maximax, Maximin and Equally likely.
Decision Making Under Risk
Decision under Risk is made w.r.t the probabilities: Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) b). Maximax Decision: Very Large Station c). Maximin Decision: Small Station d). Equally Likely: Very Large Station e). Decision Tree with each outcome equally likely. 1. A glass specializes in crystal is developing a substantial backlog and for this the firm’s management is considering the three courses of action. The correct choice depends largely upon the future demand – which may be low medium or high. Show this decision situation in the form of a decision tree and indicate the most preferred decision and its corresponding expected value. Deman Probabilit Course of Action d y S1 S2 S3 Low 0.1 10 -20 -150 Mediu m 0.5 50 60 20 High 0.4 50 100 200 S1: Sub-Contracting , S2: Being Overtime , S3: Construct New Facility
1. Ram, chief engineer at Southern Electronics, has to decide
whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realise a profit Rs.200000. If it fails, Southern Electronics could lose Rs.180000. At this time, Ram estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost ₹10000 to build. Ram estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Ram faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision? Help Ram by analysing this problem using decision tree. Let X1 = Wooden Chair X2 = Steel Chair
Then Objective Function , Z = 5X1 + 3X2
Subject to X1 ≥ 150 Wooden chairs for Bhagirath Bhavan X2 ≥ 225 Steel chairs for Shankar Bhavan X1 + X2 ≥ 150 Mix Chairs for Krishna Bhavan X 1 - X2 ≥ 0 As many Steel Chairs as Wooden for Gandhi Bhavan