TEORIA DE LAS DESICIONES

UNITS 1, 2 AND 3: PRE-TASK - PRE-KNOWLEDGE OF THE COURSE

GROUP: 212066_39

STUDENT:
LEIDY JOHANNA BARRERA

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA - UNAD

PROGRAMA DE INGENIERÍA INDUSTRIAL
YOPAL, CASANARE
2019
 INTRODUCTION

With the development of this work we feedback our knowledge and advance in the
basics in the decision-making process, which allows you Identify and implement the
appropriate methods to take and understand either using it in our daily or
professional life.

.
Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:
In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and others green.
Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:
E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}
With the above data, answer:

A. We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime
number?
B. How many balls are there in each color?
SOLUTION

a)
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
We complete the statement:
the prime numbers inside the possible results (11,13,17 and 19).
Number of favorable cases =4 prime numbers
Number of possible cases = 10 numbers between the 11 and 20
4
𝑃=
10
2
𝑝 =
5
b) How many balls are there in each color?
the probability to take a green ball is of 3/5
The number of possible cases, that is, the number of balls that can get out still
have been 10.
Number of favorable cases = 3/5 *10= 6

𝑦 = 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
3 𝑥
=
5 10
 3
𝑦 = ∗ 10
5
𝑦 = 6 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
the final result is 6 green balls and 4 red balls

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that
satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing in
each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph its
lines.
Developing
ECUACION 1
𝑌 = −4𝑋 + 6 𝑌 = −4(1) + 6
𝑌 = −4𝑋 + 6 = 1 𝑌 = −4(1) + 6
𝑌 = −4𝑋 + 6 − 6 𝑌 = −4 + 6
𝑌−6 𝑌=2
𝑌=−
1
𝑌=6

ECUACION 2
𝑌 = 2𝑋 + 1 𝑌 = −2(1) + 1 −4 = −2 + 1
𝑌 = 2(0) + 1 𝑌 = −2 + 1 -1-4=-2x
−5
𝑌 = (0) + 1 𝑌 = −1 =x
−2
𝑌=1 X=2.5
 3. Matrix operations:
The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the
matrix multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given the
following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them.

0.3 0.4 0.3

1. A= [0.1 0.5 0.4] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
2. A= 0.1 0.5 0.4 B= 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)

Developing
for the development of this operation, the rows of the first matrix must be
multiplied by the columns of the second
0.3
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∙ [0.5] = 0.1 ∙ 0.3 + 0.5 ∙ 0.5 + 0.4 ∙ 0.3 = 0.4
0.3
0.4
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∙ [0.3] = 0.1 ∙ 0.4 + 0.5 ∙ 0.3 + 0.4 ∙ 0.3 = 0.31
0.3
0.3
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∙ [0.2] = 0.1 ∙ 0.3 + 0.5 ∙ 0.2 + 0.4 ∙ 0.4 = 0.29
0.4
final result is:
𝐴 ∙ 𝐵 = [0.4 0.31 0.29]
 similar to the previous exercise do the same process, but this time we are solving
two matrix three by three

0.3
[0.5 0.2 0.3] ∙ [0.1] = 0.5 ∙ 0.3 + 0.2 ∙ 0.1 + 0.3 ∙ 0.2 = 0.23
0.2
0.5
[0.5 0.2 0.3] ∙ [0.2] = 0.5 ∙ 0.5 + 0.2 ∙ 0.2 + 0.3 ∙ 0.3 = 0.38
0.3
0.2
[0.5 0.2 0.3] ∙ [0.7] = 0.5 ∙ 0.2 + 0.2 ∙ 0.7 + 0.3 ∙ 0.5 = 0.39
0.5
0.3
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∙ [0.1] = 0.1 ∙ 0.3 + 0.5 ∙ 0.1 + 0.4 ∙ 0.2 = 0.16
0.2
0.5
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∙ [0.2] = 0.1 ∙ 0.5 + 0.5 ∙ 0.2 + 0.4 ∙ 0.3 = 0.27
0.3
0.2
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∙ [0.7] = 0.1 ∙ 0.2 + 0.5 ∙ 0.7 + 0.4 ∙ 0.5 = 0.57
0.5
0.3
[0.6 0.3 0.1] ∙ [0.1] = 0.6 ∙ 0.3 + 0.3 ∙ 0.1 + 0.1 ∙ 0.2 = 0.23
0.2
0.5
[0.6 0.3 0.1] ∙ [0.2] = 0.6 ∙ 0.5 + 0.3 ∙ 0.2 + 0.1 ∙ 0.3 = 0.39
0.3
0.2
[0.6 0.3 0.1] ∙ [0.7] = 0.6 ∙ 0.2 + 0.3 ∙ 0.7 + 0.1 ∙ 0.5 = 0.38
0.5
:
this is our final result
0.23 0.38 0.39
𝐴 ∙ 𝐵 = [0.16 0.27 0.57]
0.23 0.39 0.38