Covid 19 Market Impact Ve Version - Original

COVID-19 Market Impact:
Digital Consumer Services

Evaluating the impact of social distancing measures and a potential
recession on digital services
March 2020
Ronan de Renesse
Practice Leader, Consumer Technology, Media & Entertainment
ronan.derenesse@omdia.com
CES004-000143 © 2020 Omdia Brought to you by Informa Tech
Contents
• Catalyst
• Omdia view
• Recommendations
• COVID-19 impact summary
• COVID-19 global epidemic update
• Consumer demand impact
• Definitions and methodology
Page 2 © 2020 Omdia

Information Classification: General
Catalyst, Omdia
view, and
recommendations

Omdia view
• The anticipated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on digital
consumer services is not trivial but not always negative.
• Today, most attention and responses are focused on the impact that
lockdowns and social distancing measures have on consumer
demand. Increased consumption of digital content from mobile
apps to TV and gaming has already been observed in China and Italy
and can mean as much as a 50% increase in traffic. However,
segments that rely on live entertainment such as esports, music,
and cinema will suffer greatly from loss of ticket sales.
• The deeper and more important outcome of the COVID-19

pandemic will be the effect it will have on the economy in the
longer term. At present, we expect that it will take 18–24 months
before recovery can begin.
• One positive aspect of the pandemic is that it will accelerate the

development of technologies that help the fight against it. For
example, artificial intelligence (AI) and smart home healthcare
services should benefit in the long term.
Source: Omdia © 2020 Omdia

Recommendations for OTT service providers and platforms (1)
• Demonetize content on coronavirus. Brands are going to be cautious about allowing their content to appear alongside media on the
coronavirus. YouTube has already demonetized coronavirus-related content; social media platforms should do the same. Content from
authorities such as WHO, the US Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the UK National Health Service (NHS) should not be subject to
restrictions. Indeed, it should be promoted by social platforms.
• Improve detection and removal of misinformation, inappropriate ads, and opportunist sale of products hit by shortages.
Misinformation has a potentially serious impact on public health as does the encouraging of panic buying. Social platforms need to get a
grip on what content is being shared about COVID-19 on their platforms or risk the wrath of regulators already incensed by the
proliferation of “fake news.“
• App publishers should beef up their in-app offering to satisfy increased user engagement. People stuck at home in quarantine or self-
isolation are spending more time and money on mobile apps, so now is the time for app publishers to speed up the rollout of new in-app
features, content, and levels (e.g., games) to keep users engaged during this period of greater consumption.
• Like telcos, OTT communications apps should prepare to see their platforms being used to replace in-person communications.
Quarantine and self-isolation will greatly reduce personal contact. Communications apps will allow people to keep in touch with their
family, friends, and colleagues, so they must be ready to scale up their messaging, voice, video calling, and content-sharing capacity.

• OTT communications apps should also prepare for their platforms to be increasingly used as boredom busters. People confined in
quarantine or self-isolation will lean heavily on their communications apps for entertainment including creating, sharing, and consuming
content; playing games; or online shopping. The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity for OTT communications apps providers to
accelerate, iterate, or innovate product development in these areas.
• OTT video platforms should promote their services. Online video platforms should take the opportunity to market their services by
promoting exclusive content or original film to encourage subscriber uptake of online video platforms. Offering free access or extended
trial periods in affected areas will help services promote the brand and gain goodwill and subscriptions.
• OTT video platforms should promote transactional options. Online video platforms should promote transactional forms of
consumption, especially for new content, as cinemas are temporarily shutting down.
• OTT video platforms should be wary of ad-supported business models. In the short term, online video platforms with AVOD and SVOD
will benefit from the situation because of increased traffic. However, if the duration is prolonged, online video companies that focused
on advertising may suffer because of economic downturns.
• Expand presence on multiple app platforms. People now have access to an array of video-consumption platforms, so it is vital for
companies to make their apps present on the major app platforms including Android TV, Metrological, Apple, Roku, Amazon Fire, and
Vewd.

• Help those unused to or new to e-commerce, particularly the elderly, onto the ladder. Make it easy to register, make sure payments are
simple and intuitive, and think of providing free delivery for physical goods during the pandemic (particularly if deliveries are likely to be
disrupted). Look at value-added services that make the e-commerce experience pleasurable and even more useful, for example, quick
and easy recipes that make the most of available ingredients.
• Convert the short-term upswing in e-commerce during the pandemic into a longer-term trend. Online service providers and commerce
players should look at how this change in consumer buying behavior can be harnessed beyond the pandemic, for example, by leveraging
personalization features more effectively, making flexible content offerings, or providing friction-free payment experience.
• Leverage technology to help your business and customers through the crisis. Analytics and predictive modeling based on machine
learning (ML) can help scenario planning and responses. AR can be used to enhance online shopping (e.g., trying clothes on, virtual
showrooms); conversational commerce (chatbots, voice, video) can be used as a sales and support tool to provide interactivity and,
ultimately, to help sustain relationships.
• Plan a logistics and fulfilment response before it becomes an issue. Benefits from an upswing in e-commerce will be seriously eroded if
commerce players do not plan for disruptions across the supply chain. Actions include everything from demand forecasting,
contingencies for delivery delays and stoppages, and planning how to minimize physical contact during the delivery process.

• Continue to focus on “shoppable“ ad formats that facilitate e-commerce and food delivery. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, people
will still want to buy products, but they will move an increasing amount of their purchasing activity online. Brands and retailers will
prioritize driving online conversions through digital ad campaigns, which will increase the value of commerce-focused inventory.
• AI can help online service providers and commerce players protect consumers in uncertain times. The increase in consumer online
activity during the pandemic will open the door for opportunistic and unscrupulous behavior, for example, disinformation, fake news,
exploitative advertising and trading, commerce scams, and fraud. AI can be harnessed to help combat these issues (e.g., biometrics for
enhanced security, ML for fraud detection and to monitor for disinformation about COVID-19).
• Give consumers AI-enhanced services to help them through the crisis in ways more standard applications cannot. AI can bring
capabilities to services and applications that can be particularly relevant and useful during the COVID-19 pandemic, including remote-
working apps, enhanced entertainment, and videoconferencing to name a few. A specific examples could be leveraging geo-intelligence
that could help keep track of the viral spread or, for areas not on lockdown, providing travel information, updates, and safety advice.

COVID-19 impact
summary

Impact summary (1)
Service segment Revenue impact What to expect Expected duration*
Mobile services Negative Loss of consumer confidence will affect 5G uptake 2y

Global mobile-roaming revenue will take a hit 1y
People staying at home will mean usage shifts more to Wi-Fi than to mobile 6m
Broadband Positive Increased home working and consumer videoconferencing 6m
Accelerated push toward smart health Continuous
Greater demand than ever for digital content 6m
Mobile apps Very positive Upsurge in app downloads and consumption 6m
Demand for entertainment, home working, delivery apps 6m
Mixed impact for ride-sharing and COVID-19 info apps 6m
Communications apps Positive Increased use of app-based video calling and conferencing 6m
Authorities need to provide reliable and timely communications 6m
Comms/social apps become vital links and boredom busters 6m
Social platforms Negative Increased use of social media to spread disinformation 1y
Advertisers reduce spending on social 2y
Social firms must give away precious ad space 6m
*Duration up to the period mentioned. This is an estimate based on whether the impact is purely driven by quarantines or lockdowns, continues for longer because of a post-pandemic recession, or simply accelerates an ongoing trend

Impact summary (2)
TV content Neutral In-home TV viewing increases 6m

Demand for children’s, family, and news content grows 6m
Reduction in live event content (e.g., sports) 1y
Free-to-air TV Neutral Catalog finds favor as viewing increases 1y
Adding content makes sense 1y
Uncertainty over long-term TV advertising budgets 2y
Pay TV Negative Cord-shaving increases 2y
Bundling and discounts to take hold 2y
Broadband services get faster 2y
OTT video Very positive Increased consumption at home / increased uptake of OTT services 6m
SVOD subscriptions will grow 6m
AVOD services can capitalize on increased viewership 6m
Cinema Very negative Cinemas shutting down as people go into lockdown 1y
Distributors delay film releases or move to digital 1y
Pent-up demand for cinema may lead to strong reopening 1y

Impact summary (3)
Advertising Very negative Brands reduce overall ad budgets 2y

Canceled events and travel restrictions impact ad revenues 1y
Digital share of market grows as consumers spend more time at home 6m
Digital commerce Very positive Online shopping and payments will surge 6m
Not all merchants will benefit, and logistics and fulfilment will be strained 6m
There will be a rise in in-person payments via contactless cards and mobile apps 2y
AI Very positive AI is playing a vital role in the detect-and-contain medical response to COVID-19 2y
AI will support and entertain people at home 6m
AI will be used to safeguard consumers from unscrupulous activity Continuous
Smart home Positive Growing focus on home improvement and hygiene Continuous
Home healthcare will intensify Continuous
Voice control will help users to avoid touching surfaces and objects Continuous
AR/VR Positive Sharp rise in investment into VR enterprise applications 6m
AR glasses makers explore thermal imaging for disease detection 1y
VR headset adoption will likely be damped by production issues 6m

Impact summary (4)
Music Very negative Inevitable increase in streaming consumption 6m

Music events of all sizes will be canceled 1y
Artists, performers, and music companies face earnings losses 1y
Games Neutral Mobile games see record active users 6m

PC games experience temporary uplift in revenue and activity 6m
New console launches will not meet demand 2y
eSports Negative Cancellation of major physical esports championship events 1y
Large games companies’ 2020 esports strategies impacted 1y
Media rights and streaming advertising largely unaffected Continuous

Consumer demand
impact: TV, & OTT video.

TV viewing and content availability: What to expect
• TV viewing increases as people spend more time at home because

In-home TV viewing of the implementation of measures to contain the spread of the
virus.
increases • Differences in viewing preferences lead to multiple devices and
screens being used concurrently in the home.
Demand for • Demand for information, news, and talk shows increase as
children’s, family, workflow shifts to remote, decentralized work environments.
and news content • Demand for children’s content grows because of school closures.
• Families at home together spike demand for family content.
grows
• Reduction in live event content because of cancellation of sports.

Reduction in live • Consumer viewing patterns will shift from live events and reality-TV
event content such programming to sitcoms and series.
as sports • Major impact on revenue for rights holders of live events.

FTA TV and TV advertising: What to expect
• In-home TV viewing of free content will increase as households

Catalog finds favor experience financial hardship.
as viewing increases • Free-to-air (FTA) TV broadcasters experience greater adoption of
their catch-up TV services as users seek out catalog content.
• Quality of content increases across the viewing day to capture

Adding content audiences at differing times (e.g., affordable catalog content that
has potential to act as a good cost-saving measure).
makes sense • An addition of niche content in place of infomercials to increase
viewership and test new audiences.
• TV advertising spend carries a lot of inertia; a spike in viewership

Uncertainty over will not convert into an immediate revenue upside.
long-term TV • Canceled upfront events and negative long-term economic outlook
advertising budgets will impact renewals and pipeline for new campaigns.

Pay TV: What to expect
• Cord-shaving increases as users cancel costly channels and add-ons

in favor of less expensive packages.
Cord-shaving • Reduction in the price of the most expensive pay-TV packages.
increases • Employee quarantine and consumer reluctance to let installers into
their homes create barriers for new subscription additions.
• Bundling will help to get new products in front of potential

Bundling and customers; new reduced price bundles (e.g., hybrid FTTH and IPTV
discounts to take service at a reduced price in Italy) may find favor with price-
hold sensitive subscribers.
• Increase in promotions (e.g., free month from Telefónica in Spain).
• Telco operators will focus on infrastructure upgrade to meet the

Broadband services increase in demand for broadband services but might face setbacks
with technicians not able to make house calls.
get faster • Speed upgrades will see an uptick as more users at home require
more bandwidth and unlimited data usage.

Mobile TV: What to expect
• Mobile TV viewing in-home increases because the primary TV set

will be used more by family members at home.
Mobile device use
• Consumers conserving household income will marginally increase
will grow in value spend on mobile devices (i.e., low-end/pre-used handset and tablet
sales for children at home).
• Conversely, people who primarily turned to mobile video in an out-

Loss of out-of-home of-home environment will no longer be interested in mobile video
consumption consumption.
• Growth in prepaid mobile will slow as people stay home.

Prepaid will slow as • Demand for mobile TV breeds more competitive contract fares.
contracts grow • Demand for a reliable mobile connection to better the viewing
experience drives 5G growth.

OTT video: What to expect (1)
Increased
• People sign up temporarily to new services.
consumption at • Increased demand on home broadband bandwidth to
home/increased accommodate OTT video consumption.
uptake of OTT • People try new services and business models.
services
Growing demand for • Increase in uptake of both generalist and specialist services.
• Increased levels of viewership for children’s and family content.
children’s and family
• Increased demand for content might negatively affect smaller
content services unable to offer wide library of content.
• Live contents to be replaced with other shows or game replays.

Lack of live sports • Sports-focused OTTs are at risk for loss of revenue.
content; disrupted • Once production disruption starts affecting the new content
production release schedule, SVOD services will find subscription acquisition
and retention more challenging.

OTT video: What to expect (2)
• Netflix, Disney+, DAZN, and others will all benefit from people’s
SVOD subscriptions staying at home; Amazon Prime’s offer of fast delivery and SVOD
makes for a particularly attractive consumer proposition.
will grow • As consumers increasingly become more frugal, pay-TV
subscriptions will transition to online video services.
• Opportunity for telco operators to offer an FTTH, mobile, and

New product and SVOD bundle package.
services • D2C services, such as AT&T HBO Max or Disney+ International,
opportunities may accelerate their 2020 launch schedules.
• AVOD players with large content libraries (e.g., Tubi.tv and Pluto.tv)
AVOD services can experience a rise in viewing.
capitalize on • AVOD can attract brands increasing digital spend (e.g., food
increased viewership delivery) and unmet demand from brands blocking inventory
associated with COVID-19 content.

How to respond (1)
Response Company types
Facilitate content navigation (e.g., up-to-date electronic programming guide, or EPG). Public/commercial FTA TV broadcasters and TV device
vendors
Launch/promote flexible advertising campaign packages. Advertisers, commercial FTA TV broadcasters
Ramp up children’s, family, and news TV content sourcing and creation. Media companies and TV/OTT video service providers
Replace live reality, sports, and other event content with previous-season replays. Content rights holders
Invest in and develop AVOD catch-up TV services. Advertisers, OTT video platforms, commercial broadcasters
License old catalog to beef up content lineup for catch-up services. Commercial FTA TV broadcasters, OTT video platforms
Promote light virtual pay-TV packages for price sensitive subscribers. Pay-TV operators, OTT video platforms
Introduce flexible bring-your-own-device (BYOD) plans to avoid the need for installer visits. Pay-TV operators, hardware vendors
Facilitate self-installation via mailouts of set-top boxes and creation of instructional videos. Pay-TV operators, technology companies
Embrace new technologies (e.g., virtual crowd simulation) for live no-crowd sports. Broadcasters, software developers
Communicate with hardware vendors to understand the impact on the supply chain. Pay-TV operators, hardware vendors

How to respond (2)
Response Company types

Launch/promote flexible tariffs such as monthly passes. Pay-TV operators, OTT video platforms
Offer consumers the ability to increase broadband speeds and network capacity over the Broadband operators
outbreak period for a fee.
Expand presence on multiple TV OS platforms to maximize widest possible reach of OTT video platforms, content owners
audiences.
Offer consumers a bundled media-streaming device and the ability to increase broadband Broadband operators, media-streaming vendors
speeds and network capacity over the outbreak period for a fee.
Leverage increased connected-TV consumption metrics and flexible pay-as-you-go models to Advertisers
spur interest from reticent prospects.
Diversify supply chains geographically to be shielded from adverse events. Many non- TV technology vendors
Chinese vendors are reliant on chipsets or specific hardware that come only from China or
certain other markets.
Virtualization of hardware has been a niche in the vendor space; this is the time for wider TV technology vendors
experimentation.

OTT video: Company impact and responses so far
Company name Company type Location Response/impact
Disney OTT service provider / Europe Delayed launch event promoting streaming service in Europe.
content owner
MGM, Universal, Hollywood studios UK The James Bond film No Time To Die has been delayed until November 2020.
and Bond producers
Bona Film Group, China studio, online video China Theatrical release of Enter the Fat Dragon was canceled, and the movie was
Tencent Video, iQiyi platforms made available on Tencent Video and iQiyi on February 2020.
Huanxi Media, China studio, online China Huanxi Media canceled theatrical release of Lost in Russia and sold digital rights
Bytedance technology company to ByteDance.
Naver V Live Live-streaming platform South Korea Live theatre performances and concerts were canceled and made available via
live streaming on V Live.
Avex, YouTube Online video platform, Japan Avex canceled live performances and released about 100 live videos from artists
entertainment company belonging to Avex Management for a limited time on its YouTube channel.

OTT video: Company impact and responses so far (continued)
Company name Company type Location Response/impact
Amazon OTT service provider/ Italy Amazon Prime Video had been offered free to the “Red Zone“ region until March 31, but
content owner the offer was pulled back after the whole country had been put on lockdown.
RAI Broadcaster Italy RAI is increasing the quantity of kids and teens content on linear broadcast and its
streaming platforms RAI Play and Rai Play Yoyo.
Infinity TV OTT service provider Italy Infinity TV is offered from free for two months from March 7 for new customers only.
Normally, new customers get one month free.
Telefónica Telco Spain Telefónica offers an additional 30GB each month for Fusion customers and Movistar mobile
customers, free of charge for two months; free access to Movistar Junior app for Movistar
Fusión customers; and free access to Movistar+ Lite app, available to both Movistar clients
and nonclients.
Amazon, Apple, Broadcasters, cable Worldwide Halted scripted TV and movie production, including tentpole series for OTT SVOD services
BBC, NBCU, Disney, channels, OTT service such as Apple TV+’s The morning Show, Netflix's Stranger Things, and Hulu’s The
Netflix, Warner providers, Hollywood Handmaid’s Tale; suspended production of late night talk shows, including The Tonight
Media, ViacomCBS, studios Show Starring Jimmy Fallon and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.
and others

Appendix

Methodology
This research was conducted by gathering insights from Omdia’s Consumer team upto March 24, 2020. The revenue impact estimations are based purely on
analyst insights and expectations. Wherever possible, this has been validated by hard data sourced from various members of the industry. The situation on
COVID-19 is evolving rapidly, and the Omdia team will look to spin out this report into a market tracker. This will help monitor the progress of the outbreak and
its impact on consumer services over the coming months.

Authors (1)
Ronan de Renesse, Practice Leader, Consumer Technology and Media & Guillermo Escofet, Principal Analyst, Media and Entertainment
Entertainment guillermo.escofet@omdia.com
Ronan.deRenesse@omdia.com
Pamela Clark-Dickson, Practice Leader, Communications and Social
Tom Morrod, Senior Director, Consumer Electronics & Video Technology pamela.clark-dickson@omdia.com
Thomas.Morrod@omdia.com
Charlotte Palfrey, Senior Analyst, Communications and Social
Maria Rua Aguete, Executive Director, Media, Service Providers, and Platforms Charlotte.palfrey@omdia.com
Maria.RuaAguete@omdia.com
George Jijiashvili, Senior Analyst, Media and Entertainment
Michael Philpott, Senior Practice Leader, Consumer Services, Ovum george.jijiashvili@omdia.com
Michael.Philpott@omdia.com
Ismail Patel, Senior Analyst, TV & Consumer Tech
Mariana Zamoszczyk, Senior Analyst, Smart Living ismail.patel@omdia.com
mariana.zamoszczyk@omdia.com
Rishi Kaul, Analyst, Consumer Technology
Eden Zoller, Distinguished Analyst, Smart Living rishi.kaul@omdia.com
eden.zoller@omdia.com

Authors (2)
Simon Dyson, Practice Leader, Music Jun Wen Woo, Research Analyst, Online Video and Platforms for OTT
Simon.dyson@omdia.com Junwen.woo@omdia.com
Matthew Bailey, Senior Analyst, Media & Entertainment Kia Ling Teoh, Senior Research Analyst, Advertising and Channels and
Matthew.bailey@omdia.com Programming
Kialing.Teoh@omdia.com
Nicole McCormick, Practice Leader, Broadband and Multiplay
nicole.mccormick@omdia.com Aled Evans; Senior Research Analyst, Advertising and Channels and
Programming for AD
Steve Bailey, Senior analyst, Games Aled.evans@omdia.com
steven.bailey@omdia.com
David Hancock; Research Director Cinema
Chenyu Cui, Senior analyst, Games David.hancock@omdia.com
chenyu.cui@omdia.com
Alzbeta Fellenbaum, Principal Analyst Broadband
Louise Shorthouse, Analyst, Games Alzbeta.fellenbaum@omdia.com
louise.shorthouse@omdia.com

Authors (3)
Silvia Presello, Analyst, Broadband

Silvia.presello@omdia.com
David Scott, Research Director, TV and Online

David.scott@omdia.com
Erik Brannon, Research Director, TV and Online

Erik.brannon@omdia
Marija Masalskis, Research Director , TV and Online

Maria.masalskis@informa.com
Irina Kornilova, Principal Analyst , TV and Online, Advertising

Irina.kornilova@informa.com

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COVID-19 Market Impact:

Digital Consumer Services

• COVID-19 impact summary

• COVID-19 global epidemic update

• Consumer demand impact

• Definitions and methodology

Page 2 © 2020 Omdia

Page 3 © 2020 Omdia

• The deeper and more important outcome of the COVID-19

• One positive aspect of the pandemic is that it will accelerate the

Page 4 © 2020 Omdia

Page 5 © 2020 Omdia

Page 6 © 2020 Omdia

Page 7 © 2020 Omdia

Page 8 © 2020 Omdia

Page 9 © 2020 Omdia

Service segment Revenue impact What to expect Expected duration*

Mobile services Negative Loss of consumer confidence will affect 5G uptake 2y

Page 10 © 2020 Omdia

Service segment Revenue impact What to expect Expected duration*

TV content Neutral In-home TV viewing increases 6m

Page 11 © 2020 Omdia

Service segment Revenue impact What to expect Expected duration*

Advertising Very negative Brands reduce overall ad budgets 2y

Page 12 © 2020 Omdia

Service segment Revenue impact What to expect Expected duration*

Music Very negative Inevitable increase in streaming consumption 6m

Games Neutral Mobile games see record active users 6m

Page 13 © 2020 Omdia

Page 14 © 2020 Omdia

• TV viewing increases as people spend more time at home because

• Reduction in live event content because of cancellation of sports.

Page 15 © 2020 Omdia

• In-home TV viewing of free content will increase as households

• Quality of content increases across the viewing day to capture

• TV advertising spend carries a lot of inertia; a spike in viewership

Page 16 © 2020 Omdia

• Cord-shaving increases as users cancel costly channels and add-ons

• Bundling will help to get new products in front of potential

• Telco operators will focus on infrastructure upgrade to meet the

Page 17 © 2020 Omdia

• Mobile TV viewing in-home increases because the primary TV set

• Conversely, people who primarily turned to mobile video in an out-

• Growth in prepaid mobile will slow as people stay home.

Page 18 © 2020 Omdia

• Live contents to be replaced with other shows or game replays.

Page 19 © 2020 Omdia

• Opportunity for telco operators to offer an FTTH, mobile, and

Page 20 © 2020 Omdia

Page 21 © 2020 Omdia

Response Company types

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Company name Company type Location Response/impact

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Company name Company type Location Response/impact

Page 24 © 2020 Omdia

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Silvia Presello, Analyst, Broadband

David Scott, Research Director, TV and Online

Erik Brannon, Research Director, TV and Online