Tugas Mata Kuliah Metode Kuantitatif

Regresi dan Perhitungan dengan SPSS

Dosen: Dr. Erric Wijaya ,SE.,ME.

Dicky Wahyudi
NIM : 20192111008

Jakarta
2020
TUGAS 4-19

Year Number of Tourist Ridership (100,000’s) (Y)

(1,000,000’s) (X)
1 7 15
2 2 10
3 6 13
4 4 15
5 14 25
6 15 27
7 16 24
8 12 20
9 14 27
10 20 44
11 15 34
12 7 17

Question :

a) Plot these data and determine whether a linear model is reasonable.

b) Develop a regression model.
c) What is expected ridership if 10 million tourist visit the city?

Answer A)

To plot the data given in the linear model for the Band S Ridership in summer months in
L : X is Ridership, Y is Number of Tourist in Band 5
Answer B)
To forecast the linear regression analysis for the B&S ridership for the summer months in L
Linear regression method :
Y = a + bx
Where, y = value of the dependent
variable a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression
line x = independent
variable
To find the above equation, need to find equation for a
and b Where, a is :

Where, b is

In this problem :
X = Number of
tourists Y = Ridership
Substitute the data according to the given formulation :

Number of
Ridership
Tourist
Year (In Million) XY X2 Y2
(In Million)
(Y)
(X)
1 7 1,5 10,5 49 2,25
2 2 1,0 2,0 4 1,00
3 6 1,3 7,8 36 1,69
4 4 1,5 6,0 16 2,25
5 14 2,5 35,0 196 6,25
6 15 2,7 40,5 225 7,29
7 16 2,4 38,4 256 5,76
8 12 2,0 24,0 144 4,00
9 14 2,7 37,8 196 7,29
10 20 4,4 88,0 400 19,36
11 15 3,4 51,0 225 11,56
12 7 1,7 11,9 49 2,89

N = 12 ƩX = 132 ƩY = 27,1 ƩXY = 352,9 ƩX2 = 1796 ƩY2 = 71,59

= 132 / 12 = 27,1 / 12
= 11 = 2,258

To find

b = 352,9 – 12 (11 x 2,258) a = 2,258 – (0,1594 x 11)

1796 – 1452 = 2,258 – 1,7534
= 352,0 – 298,056 = 0,5046
1796 – 1452
= 54,84 / 344
= 0,1594
Regression Model with SPSS :

Regression
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method

1 Number of Touristb . Enter

a. Dependent Variable: Ridership
b. All requested variables entered.

The data above shows that the independent variable entered is the “Number of Tourist” and
no variable is removed, because the method used is single step (enter) instead of stepwise.
Dependent Variable in this case is “Ridership” .

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Square Estimate
1 .917a .840 .824 .40736
a. Predictors: (Constant), Number of Tourist
b. Dependent Variable: Ridership

The data above shows the Summary Model, the R Square number or the coefficient of
determination is 0.840 meaning 84% of the variation of the Number of Tourist can be
explained by the Ridership variable. While the rest of 0.16 or 16% (1-0.840 or 100% -84%) is
explained by other variables that have not been included in the model. But the value of this
other variable is small at 16%. R Square ranges from 0 to 1, note that the smaller the R Square
number, the weaker the relationship between the two variables (and vice versa).

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 8.730 1 8.730 52.608 .000b
Residual 1.659 10 .166
Total 10.389 11
a. Dependent Variable: Ridership
b. Predictors: (Constant), Number of Tourist

The data above shows the ANOVA, reading the Fcount value of 52.608 with a significant level
of 0,000. Because the probability (0,000) is much smaller than 0.05 (in this case using a
significance level or α = 5%, the model is used to predict Ridership. Usually this output is used
to test the hypothesis.
H0 = There is no linear relationship between Number of Tourist and
Ridership H1 = There is linear relationship between Number of
Tourist and Ridership

Guidelines used: Sig. < α then H0 is rejected. It means that there is a linear relationship between
Number of Tourist and Ridership.
 Coefficientsa
Standardize
Unstandardize Collinearit
d d y
Coefficient Correlations
Coefficients Statistics
s
Model t Sig. Zero
- Partia Toler
B Std. Error Beta ord l Part ance VIF
er
1 (Constant) .506 .269 1.883 .089
Number
.159 .022 .917 7.253 .000 .91 .91 .91 1.00 1.00
of Tourist
7 7 7 0 0
a. Dependent Variable: Ridership

The table above shows the analysis of coefficients, used to illustrate the regression
equation as follows:
Y = 0.506 + 0.159, or
Ridership = 0.506 + 0.159 (Number of Tourist)

• A constant of 0.506 states if there is no Number of Tourist, the total Ridership of 0.506.
• A regression coefficient of 0.159 states that every addition (due to a positive sign) 1 to the
Number of Tourist will increase the Ridership by 0.159, and vice versa. The sign (+) indicates
a unidirectional relationship, while the sign (-) indicates the direction of the relationship is
inverselyproportional.
• T test to test the significance of constants independent variables Number of
Tourist (a) : H0 = The Number of Tourist regression coefficient is not significant
H1 = The Number of Tourist regression coefficient is
significant Sig. = 0.089
α = 0.005 (5%)

Because Sig. > α, it is concluded to accept H0, which means the Number of Tourist
regression coefficient is not significant.

• Test the significance of the dependent variable regression coefficient

Ridership (b) : H0 = The Ridership regression coefficient is not
significant
H1 = The Ridership regression coefficient is
significant Sig. = 0.000
α = 0.005 (5%)

Because Sig. <α, it is concluded to reject H0, which means the Ridership regression
coefficient is significant

Answer C)
To predict the expected ridership if 10 million tourists visit
every year X = 10 million

Y = a + bx
= 0.5046 + (0.1594 x 10)
= 2.086

Hence, the expected ridership if there are ten million tourists every year is 2,086
TUGAS 4-22
The following data give the selling price, square footage, number of bedrooms, and age of
houses that have sold in a neighborhood in the past 6 months. Develop three regression models
to predict the selling price based upon each of the other factors individually. Which of these is
best?
Selling Price ($) Square Footage Bedrooms Age (Years)
84.000 1.670 2 30
79.000 1.339 2 25
91.500 1.712 3 30
120.000 1.840 3 40
127.500 2.300 3 18
132.500 2.234 3 30
145.000 2.311 3 19
164.000 2.377 3 7
155.000 2.736 4 10
168.000 2.500 3 1
172.500 2.500 4 3
174.000 2.479 3 3
175.000 2.400 3 1
177.500 3.124 4 0
184.000 2.500 3 2
195.500 4.062 4 10
195.000 2.854 3 3
Question :
a) Determine the dependent and independent variables.
b) Make the results of the regression equation.
c) Interpret the results of the regression equation.
d) What is the coefficient of determination and interpret the results.
e) F test.
f) T test.

Answer A)
Regression Model with SPSS :
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1 Age, Bedrooms, Square Footageb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: Selling Price
b. All requested variables entered.

The data above shows that the independent variable entered are “Square Footage (X1), Bedrooms
(X2), and Age (X3)” and no variable is removed, because the method used is single step (enter)
instead of stepwise. Dependent Variable in this case is “Selling Price” .
Answer B)
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Durbin
R Adjuste Std. Error R F Sig. F
df -
Model Squar dR of the Square Chang df Chang
R 1 Watso
e Square Estimate Change e 2 e
n
1 15231.9038
.93 .86 .83 .86 28.43 3 1 .00 2.34
2a 8 7 8 9 3 0 5
a. Predictors: (Constant), Age, Bedrooms, Square Footage
b. Dependent Variable: Selling Price

The data above shows the Summary Model, the R Square number or the coefficient of
determination is 0.868 meaning 86.8% of the variation of the Selling Price can be explained
by the Square Footage, Bedrooms, and Age variable. While the rest of 0.132 or 13.2% (1 -
0.868 or 100% - 86.8%) is explained by other variables that have not been included in the
model. But the value of this other variable is small at 13.2%. R Square ranges from 0 to 1, note
that the smaller the R Square number, the weaker the relationship between the other
variables (and vice versa).

Answer C & E)
ANOVA & F TEST

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 19794476008.27 6598158669.42
3 28.439 .000b
4 5
Residual 3016141638.785 13 232010895.291
Total 22810617647.05
16
9
a. Dependent Variable: Selling Price
b. Predictors: (Constant), Age, Bedrooms, Square Footage

The data above shows the ANOVA, reading the Fcount value of 28.439 with a significant level
of 0,000. Because the probability (0,000) is much smaller than 0.05 (in this case using a
significance level or α = 5%, the model is used to predict Selling Price. Usually this output is
used to test the hypothesis.
H0 = There is no linear relationship between Square Footage, Bedrooms,
and Age variable with Selling Price
H1 = There is linear relationship between Square Footage, Bedrooms,
and Age variable with Selling Price

Guidelines used: Sig. < α then H0 is rejected. It means that there is a linear relationship between
between Square Footage, Bedrooms, and Age variable with Selling Price.
Answer D)
Coefficientsa
Std. Collinearit
Unstandardized
Coeff Correlations y
Coefficients
. Statistics
Model t Sig. Zero
Std. Tole
- Parti
Erro r
B Beta orde al Part VIF
r ance
r
1 (Constant) 26076.89
91446.493 3.507 .004
0
Square 29.858 10.861 .490 2.749 .017 .837 .606 .277 .321 3.11
Footage 8
Bedrooms 10003.00
2116.855 .034 .212 .836 .658 .059 .021 .402 2.48
6
Age -1504.766 370.820 -.520 -4.058 .001 -.838 -.748 -.409 .619 1.61
6
a. Dependent Variable: Selling Price

The table above shows the analysis of coefficients, used to illustrate the regression
equation as follows:
Y = 91446.493 + 29.858 X1 + 2116.855 X2 – 1504.766 X3, or
Selling Price = 91446.493 + 29.858 (Square Footage) + 2116.855
(Bedrooms) – 1504.766 (Age)

• A constant of 91446.493 states if there is no Square Footage, Bedrooms, and Age, the
total Selling Price of 91446.493.
• A regression coefficient X1 of 29.858 states that every addition (due to a positive sign) 1
to the Square Footage will increase the Selling Price by $ 91446.493, and vice versa,
assuming that X2 and X3 variable remain.
• A regression coefficient X2 of 2116.855 states that every addition (due to a positive sign)
1 to the Bedroom will decrease the Selling Price by $ 91446.493, and vice versa, assuming
that X1 and X3 variable remain.
• A regression coefficient X3 of -1504.766 states that every addition (due to a negative sign)
1 to the Age will decrease the Selling Price by $ 91446.493, and vice versa, assuming that
X1 and X2 variable remain.

Answer F)
T TEST

• T test to test the significance of constants independent variables Selling

Price (a) : H0 = The Selling Price regression coefficient is not significant
H1 = The Selling Price regression coefficient is
significant Sig. = 0.004
α = 0.005 (5%)
 Because Sig. < α, it is concluded to reject H0, which means the Selling Price regression
coefficient is significant.

• Test the significance of the dependent variable regression coefficient Square

Footage (b1): H0 = The Square Footage regression coefficient is not significant
H1 = The Square Footage regression coefficient is significant
Sig. = 0.017
α = 0.005 (5%)

Because Sig. > α, it is concluded to accept H0, which means the Square Footage
regression coefficient is not significant

• Test the significance of the dependent variable regression coefficient

Bedroom (b2) : H0 = The Bedroom regression coefficient is not
significant
H1 = The Bedroom regression coefficient is
significant Sig. = 0,836
α = 0,005 (5%)

Because Sig. > α, it is concluded to accept H0, which means the Bedroom regression
coefficient is not significant

• Test the significance of the dependent variable regression coefficient

Age (b3) : H0 = The Age regression coefficient is not significant
H1 = The Age regression coefficient is
significant Sig. = 0,001
α = 0,005 (5%)

Because Sig. <α, it is concluded to reject H0, which means the Age regression
coefficient is significant