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Agriculture
Socio-economic
Vulnerability
and impact
assessment Human
- Impacts on water settlement
Climate resources
database
- Long term scenario
Models (GCM development in water
and RCM) Poverty &
policies
p Employment
Health
Biodiversity
1- Climate Modeling Phase
RCM Climatic
precipitation
Temperature (max, min,
Climate data
mean, etc.)
Domain
D i
boundary
Evaporation rate
GCM boundaryy
conditions Humidity level
Atmospheric pressure
etc.
2- Hydrological and water resources
modeling
These impacts
p need to be identified in
order to measure the effects of climate
change within a sustainable development
context.
Thi can b
This be d
done bby analyzing
l i iimpacts and d
mapping hotspots of affected sub-regions
based on key issues of regional concerns.
e g agricultural models can be used to
e.g.
estimate vulnerability indicators related to
cropping
i patterns,
tt water
t di
distribution
t ib ti and d
irrigation efficiency.
3- Socio-economic and environmental impacts
(cont’d)
Vulnerability
Water distribution and Agro- and impact
economic models mapping
Indicator-based Approach
Vulnerability is a function of exposure to hazard,
sensitivity to hazard and adaptive capacity (Adger et al.
al
(2004).
e.g.
g water related hazards such as floods, rainfall events,
droughts, conflicts, water borne epidemics are
represented by indicators to measure their intensity,
extent and frequency
q y.
This approach does not aim to conduct a quantitative
climate change risk assessment.
These indicators can be used as tools to assess and
monitor adverse conditions and identify vulnerability
hotspots for decision makers.
Indicators
di off vulnerability
l bili anddhhazards
d will
ill b
be
represented in geo-referenced (GIS) maps of the Arab
region
g to facilitate overlaying
y g and to conduct spatial
p
analysis between different layers.
Example of vulnerability indictors
Category Factor Measure
Water resources Application of IWRM Level of application
planning and
Efficiency of water demand % cost recovered from water fees
management
g
management
Water network losses % water network losses
Water storage capacity % water storage to total water resources
g water reserves
Status of strategic g water resources
% abstraction to total strategic
Economy General state of economy Gross national income
Gross domestic product
Gross savings (% of GNI)
Total reserves (% of total external debt)
Total debt services (% of GNI)
Lending interest rate (%)
Population relative wealth GNI per capita
GDP per capita
Unemployment (% of total workforce)
Poverty % of population earning less than $1.25 per day
Economic diversification Value added – industry (%of GDP)
Value added – services (%of GDP)
Energy consumption Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)
Energy cost Diesel fuel price
Example of vulnerability indictors (cont’d)
Category Factor Measure
Demography/socio- Size of population Total population
economic
Population growth Population growth
Population-female % female of total population
% off workforce
kf iin agriculture
i l
% of rural population
Dependency on rain-fed agriculture % of rain-fed land
Reliance
li on llocally
ll produced
d d ffood
d % Food
d produced
d d llocally
ll