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Homework #09 - Monte Carlo Methods, Markov Chain Theory

and Age-Structured Population Models - Resolution1


Eduardo J. Sanchez2
1. The squirrels
This problem will be completely solved by using Maple® 12.

Consider:

Now let us consider the equilibrium of the system through several iterations:

1 MATH – 636 (Mathematical Modeling) - San Diego, November 24, 2010.


2 Computational Sciences Research Center - Red I.D.: 814-278-485 - esanchez@sciences.sdsu.edu

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This allows us to consider the following vector:

which represents the equilibrium distribution.

This vector states that about 17.05% of the area will be populated by red squirrels, 5.60% of the area
will be populated by gray squirrels, 34.21% of the area will be populated by both and 43.14% of the
area will be populated by any type of squirrels.

Clearly this analysis doesn't focus on squirrel’s population but this area occupation data helps to
study this dynamics.

The analysis shows that the red squirrels are not in danger of being displaces by the gray squirrels. In
fact, red squirrels occupy more area than the gray squirrels, this is, when the system reaches the
stable state, 17.05% of the red squirrels will not have to compete against the gray squirrels and
34.21% of them will live together.

2. The frogs
a. Using MATLAB® 2010, we can compute the required iterations for the system, obtaining a
vector X for the required distributions, per each time snapshot, with the results depicted in Table 1.

Table 1: Resulting particular time snapshots of the expected distributions.

Vector components Day 1 Day 2 Day 5 Day 10


1 0.42 0.2794 0.231737 0.230597
2 0.07 0.1597 0.206571 0.206912
3 0.34 0.3754 0.356359 0.354722
4 0.17 0.1855 0.205333 0.207769

b. Continuing the iterations we can obtain the expected distribution for a long period of time. After
100 iterations we have the following vector:

0.230597 0.206912 0.354722 0.207769

This vector represents the expected distribution in a relatively long period of time. It shows that
after a long period of time, region 3 is the most suitable regions for the frogs in contrast with region
number 2, which is the least suitable for them.

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c. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation MATLAB® code is presented in the appendix 1. It gives the
results that are included in Table 2.

Table 2: Snapshots in the specified times of the mean and standard deviation of the distribution for each
region.

Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4


Day 1
Mean 42.043 7.001 33.915 17.041
St. Dev. 4.8805 2.5697 4.6285 3.7987
Day 2
Mean 27.884 16.105 37.536 18.475
St. Dev. 4.4565 3.5728 4.8593 3.9376
Day 5
Mean 23.327 20.648 35.669 20.356
St. Dev. 4.2216 4.1706 4.8263 4.0373
Day 10
Mean 23.158 20.743 35.467 20.632
St. Dev. 4.234 3.98 4.6775 4.1504

3. A mysterious animal
a. From the information given, we can determine the related Leslie Matrix which follows:

Considering this, the required system, takes the following form:

The steady state percentages are given by the normalized eigenvector associated with the dominant
eigenvalue (1.2465). This vector reads:

0.6213 0.1994 0.1120 0.0674

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Finally, regarding the doubling time, let be the dominant eigenvalue already
mentioned. The Malthusian growth rate is 0.2465 therefore, to determine the doubling time, we
consider:

This easily achieved with Maple® 12:

b. In order to consider the harvesting of one of a determined fraction of the population, we need to
rewrite the Leslie matrix as it follows (well, we will actually consider just to not write that
much):

Considering the new matrix, we can see that its related characteristic polynomial is:

Since the zeros of the characteristic polynomial are the eigenvalues of the studied matrix. We set
then since we want the population to remain constant; we then obtain:

Discarding the negative case, α = 0.4325277019. (Notice we used Maple® 12 for this one as well).

With this new value, we come for a new definition of the Leslie matrix for this scenario:

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The steady state solution, obtained by considering the normalized eigenvector associated with the
dominant eigenvalue, is:

0.6409 0.2563 0.0776 0.0252

For 550 mature adults, then the total population would be 550/0.0252 = 21,825.40. Table 3, shows
how does the population could be subdivided into the newly created equivalence classes.

Table 3. Classification of the population according to the considered harvesting:

Years: 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 Total
Population: 13,987.89 5,593.85 1693.65 550 21,825.40

Finally, since the growth rate is 0.2465 annually. For us to make sure that the system will remain at
equilibrium, a total of 21,825.40 × 0.2465 = 5,379.96 animals are harvested annually.

4. Leslie Matrix Models with Density Dependent Recruitment


(LMMDDR)
a. We will write the model using Maple® 12. Let:

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Considering this, the associated normalized eigenvector for the dominant eigenvalue
(1.38526475929279646) is:

Considering all of this, the final LMMDDR model is:

Where

Notice that this model can be written because, as it can be seen, the dominant eigenvalue is larger
than one.

b. Fig. 1 depicts the behavior of the populations through a time equivalent to 20 generations. The
biological dynamics show that these population quickly stabilize into their steady state distributions.
It takes about 13 generations to begin to approach the total population limit of 100 members. With
the limit of the total population being K = 100, the limiting populations for each group would be as
follows:

1. For population1: 69.0010 ≈ 69.


2. For population 2: 24.8858 ≈ 25.
3. And for population 3: 5.3960 ≈ 5.

Clealry, all of them add up to 100, which clearly supports that the carrying capacity is 100. Actually,
as time goes by, we can see this behavior from the simulation.

In biological terms, one could explain the population limit to be a result of a shortage of food
supplies, limited space for the population, or even competition. This particular population
distribution could describe a species that has multiple offspring produced by individuals in the age
group two and age group three. This population in particular seems to have a low survival rate when
going from age group one to age group two and even lower when going from age group two to age
group three.

Observation: If at any time, the term “populations” (in plural) is used, is for us to easily refer to each
of the studied population age groups.

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Figure 1: Behavior of the population in 20 simulated generations.

5. A bird’s problem
a. Table 4 and 5 show the required results:

Table 4: Average values for each survival parameters.

Bird Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Average


0 to 1 175 237 258 311
1 to 2 42 59 89 92
Older 97 104 128 145

S1 0.337142857 0.375527426 0.356589147 0.35641981


S2=S3 0.748201439 0.785276074 0.668202765 0.733893426

Table 5: Average values of the births rates (nesting) for each of the classes:

Bird Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Average


1 to 2 38 47 66 74
Older 199 211 245 293

B2 0.904761905 0.796610169 0.741573034 0.804347826 0.811823234


B3 2.051546392 2.028846154 1.9140625 2.020689655 2.003786175

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b and c. From the values computed above, the Leslie matrix is:

The following MATLAB® 2010b code:

1 clear all
2 close all
3 clc
4
5 L = [0 0.8118 2.0038;0.3564 0 0;0 0.7339 0.7339];
6 x = [311 92 145]';
7 % Iterate through time:
8 for I = 1 : 3
9 x = L*x
10 end
11 pause
12 % Get eigenvalues and eigenvectors:
13 [V D] = eig(L)
14 pause
15 % Obtain "dominant eigenvector":
16 A = V(:,3)
17 pause
18 % Normalize and report:
19 A = A/sum(A)
20 pause
21 % CHECKING: The sum of its component should be one:
22 sum(A)

Reports the following required results:

The estimated distribution within three years is:

524.4588 156.2849 248.9143

Vector that if we normalize we get:

0.5641 0.1681 0.2677

The related eigenvalues are:

1. -0.2303 + 0.4560i.
2. -0.2303 - 0.4560i.
3. 1.1946.

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Each one of them has the following related eigenvector (respectively):

0.7631 -0.2400 - 0.4752i 0.0095 + 0.3662i

0.7631 -0.2400 + 0.4752i 0.0095 - 0.3662i

0.8721 0.2602 0.4145

We can clearly see that the dominant eigenvector is:

0.8721 0.2602 0.4145

Which we can normalize to obtain the vector of the limiting percents of the populations, which is:

0.5638 0.1682 0.2680

Finally, since the growing rate is 19% and the dominant eigenvalue is 1.1946, we can solve the
following:

As it is easily obtained from the following Maple® 12 code:

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Appendix 1
MATLAB® 2010b code for problem 2, section c (§ 2)

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