100 days

A 100-day analysis means two things: Are there policy initiatives in place? How is
implementation proceeding? To be certain, policy outcomes will take time. The four
policy initiatives that I have studied in detail are: economic, health, education and
digital. All the four policy initiatives are quite comprehensive and stand on solid
grounds. The PTI’s economic policy stands on three pillars: exports, investments and
remittances.

Exports: For the first time in our 71-year chequered financial history, our trade deficit
crossed $38 billion. For the first time in our 71-year chequered financial history, our
exports declined for four consecutive years. For the first time in our 71-year
chequered financial history, our current account deficit crossed $18 billion.

In September, Finance Minister Asad Umar identified five export-sector industries:

textile, carpets, leather, sporting goods and surgical goods. The same month, the
Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved a subsidy worth Rs44 billion on
gas tariffs for the five export-sector industries. The textile sector – 60 percent of our
exports – was also given a reduction in regulatory duty on 82 import items.

In return, the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) is projecting a

doubling of their exports in the next five years (with current exports worth around $13
billion). Plus, the government’s move is expected to bring back around 500,000 jobs
(in Faisalabad and Multan). Admittedly, a gas subsidy for the export sector is not a
sustainable solution; making it globally competitive is. So, a lot more needs to be
done.

Investments: The focus here is on three things – non-debt-creating investments; ease

of doing business in Pakistan; and lowering the cost of inputs. ExxonMobil (revenue:
$237 billion in 2017), the world’s ninth largest company by revenue, is re-opening its
office in Pakistan after a 27-year absence. Suzuki Motors Global Chairman Osamu
Suzuki is considering a $450 million expansion in Pakistan. Coca Cola (Turkey) plans
to invest $200 million.

In October, Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
(Revenue: $60 billion), was in Pakistan evaluating investment opportunities. In
addition, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Assets: $828 billion) has also shown
interest. Question: how much of this would actually materialise? Answer: Only time
will tell.

Remittances: Pakistani workers aboard send back around $20 billion a year through
banking channels. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM),
an amount of more than $20 billion arrives in Pakistan through non-banking channels.
In an attempt to divert additional billions through banking channels, the government is
going all out to identify feasible alternatives. Admittedly, none has so far been
identified. This indeed is a tough one because the government is competing head-on
with the speed and superior rates of hundi and hawala dealers.

On the anti-money laundering front, for the first time in the FIA’s 43-year history the
agency has unearthed the biggest money laundering scam, not just in the history of
Pakistan but in the history of this region. On November 12, Special Assistant to the
PM on Accountability Shahzad Akbar announced that the details of money laundering
worth Rs700 billion have been traced in 10 countries. Shahzad Akbar also declared
that the process to freeze the accounts of big crocodiles has been started.

Alarmingly, based on a random survey, business activity in Islamabad has slowed

down by around 30 percent. To be certain, the high volatility in the rupee-dollar parity
is bad for business. The State Bank of Pakistan must establish mechanisms to preempt
any such incidence. Yes, sector-wise policy initiatives are in place, implementation is
in process and policy outcomes will take time. Yes, there is no room for complacency
and a lot more needs to be done.

The writer is the government’s spokesperson on economy and energy issues.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @saleemfarrukh