SURVEY ANALYSIS

TO: Y’ALL POLITICS

FROM: ROBERT COON
SUBJECT: MS STATEWIDE SURVEY – MAY 2020
DATE: 5/12/20

Impact Management Group conducted a statewide public opinion survey among 606 likely General
Election voters in the State of Mississippi between May 4-7, 2020. Y’all Politics identified topics of inter-
est to its readers and those results are included in the following polling analysis document and corre-
sponding slides.

Methodology
This statewide public opinion survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.98%. 65.97% of respondents were
contacted via cellular telephone, and 34.03% were contacted by landline.

Respondents were screened with 100% of respondents identified as registered to vote and 96.39% des-
ignating themselves as “Very Likely” to vote in the November 2020 General Election. Results have been
weighted to adjust for age.

Right Direction / Wrong Track

Q4: “Overall, would you say things in Mississippi are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off
on the wrong track?

Right Direction 55.29%

Wrong Track 25.45%
Undecided/Refused 19.26%

55% of Mississippi voters believe the state is headed in the right direction, with 25% saying things are on
the wrong track. Self-identified Republican voters believe things are headed in the right direction at 73%
(11% wrong track), while the majority of Democrats believe the state is on the wrong track (56%). Inde-
pendents are positive on the direction of the state with 50% saying things are headed in the right direction.

There is a correlation between COVID-19 outlook and overall right direction/wrong track. 46% of those
who view the physical threat of coronavirus as the greater risk think the state is headed in the right direc-
tion, compared to 69% of those who think the economic risk is greater.
Elected Official Favorability
Q5 – Q7: “I am going to read you some names of different people active in national and Missis-
sippi politics. For each name, please tell me if you have heard of that person or not. If you have
heard of them, please tell me whether your impression of that person is strongly favorable, some-
what favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable (ROTATE).”

Questions 5-7 focused on determining the name identification and favorability rating of several elected
officials. The following is a breakdown of their favorability ratings, favorability ratio, name identification,
and the percentage of voters that have heard of the person but have no opinion.

NAME FAV UNFAV RATIO NID H/N

Tate Reeves 71.72% 18.21% 4-1 Fav 97% 6.80%

Cindy Hyde-Smith 54.60% 25.39% 2-1 Fav 93% 12.11%

Mike Espy 40.43% 27.05% 3-2 Fav 87% 18.91%

Governor Tate Reeves has seen a significant boost to his favorability since the November 2019 election.
Reeves exceeds 60% favorability with all age groups, with his highest approval among voters 50-64. 80%
of white voters view Reeves favorably while his favorability is 49% among African Americans. Republicans
have coalesced around Reeves at 88% favorable (57% strongly favorable). Reeves is also net favorable
among both Democrats (47%) and Independents (68%).

Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith heads into the 2020 election with a 2-1 favorability ratio. Hyde-Smith’s favor-
ability is stronger among voters over the age of 50, though she remains net favorable with those under
50. While Hyde-Smith is viewed favorably by 70% of white voters, she is net unfavorable among African
Americans (58% unfavorable) with 43% viewing her strongly unfavorable. 77% of Republicans view her
favorably along with 55% of Independents. Hyde-Smith’s numbers show a noticeable gender gap with
favorability among men (61%) exceeding that of women (49%).

Mike Espy is viewed positively overall with 40% favorable compared to only 27% unfavorable, but his
numbers lack intensity, with only 20% viewing him strongly favorable. Espy’s favorability is anchored by
African American voters (80%), of which 50% view him strongly favorable, without notable support from
other demographic groups. 30% of voters have heard of Espy but don’t have an opinion of him, while
26% have never heard of him.

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Reeves Job Approval

Q8: “Overall, how would you rate the job that Tate Reeves is doing as Governor?”

Approve 82.63%
Disapprove 14.88%
Undecided/Refused 2.49%

Voters in Mississippi widely approve of the job Tate Reeves is doing as Governor, with 41% strongly ap-
proving of his performance. Reeves receives high marks across all age groups, and from both men and
women. Reeves job approval exceeds 90% with Republicans and 81% with independents. Roughly 70%
of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, though the majority of those only “somewhat approve”, a
reminder that support from Democrats could change.

Hyde-Smith Job Approval

Q9: “Overall, how would you rate the job that Cindy Hyde-Smith is doing as United States Sena-
tor?”

Approve 61.19%
Disapprove 25.83%
Undecided/Refused 12.98%

Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith’s 61% approval rating is a strong indicator of her strength heading into the
November election. As with her favorability, Hyde-Smith lags somewhat with voters under the age of 50

compared to older voters. 75% of white voters approve of the job she’s doing as Senator, while 56% of
African Americans disapprove. Hyde-Smith performs well among Republicans (83%) and Independents
(58%), putting her in a position of strength for her upcoming re-election campaign.

Trump Job Approval

Q10: “Overall, how would you rate the job that Donald Trump is doing as President?”

Approve 66.49%
Disapprove 30.77%
Undecided/Refused 2.74%

Two-thirds of Mississippi voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, with low marks
coming primarily from African American voters (79% disapprove) and self-identified Democrats (84% dis-
approve). Trump’s approval is consistent across all age groups, and tops 73% among younger voters (18-

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34). Trump receives near universal approval from Republicans (98%) and high marks from Independents
(72%). 85% of Republicans “strongly approve” of the job the president is doing. 72% of men approve of
the president, compared to only 61% of women.

General Election Ballot

Q11: “If the election for United States Senate was being held today, and the candidates were:
[ROTATE] Cindy Hyde-Smith, the Republican, Jimmy Edwards, the Libertarian, and Mike Espy,
the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”

Cindy Hyde-Smith 58.31%

Jimmy Edwards 2.56%
Mike Espy 30.56%
Unsure/Don’t Know 8.57%

Six months out from November 3rd, Cindy Hyde-Smith is in a strong position to win re-election. Notably

more than half of voters (52%) say they would definitely vote for her, and only 9% of voters are undecided
in the race. Hyde-Smith garners 92% support from Republicans while 89% of Democrats chose Espy.
Hyde-Smith (50%) leads Espy (23%) among Independents roughly 2 to 1. With Espy’s base of support

coming primarily from African Americans (82%) and Democrats (89%), the high percentage of definite
Hyde-Smith’s supporters, and the low number of undecided voters, he lacks a visible path to victory.

Trump Coronavirus Job Approval

Q12: “How would you rate President Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus - COVID-19
pandemic?”

Approve 67.08%
Disapprove 31.00%
Undecided/Refused 1.92%

President Trump’s job approval on the coronavirus pandemic mirrors his overall job approval numbers,

including approval across age, party, and gender lines. Voters that view physical health and wellbeing as
the greater coronavirus threat narrowly approve of Trump’s handling of the pandemic 51% to 46%. Con-
versely, those that view economic hardship as the primary risk of the pandemic rate Trump much higher

(86% to 14%).

Reeves Coronavirus Job Approval

Q13: “How would you rate Governor Tate Reeves’ handling of the coronavirus - COVID-19 pandemic?”

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 Approve 82.86%
Disapprove 15.54%
Undecided/Refused 1.60%

As with Trump, voters view the job Governor Tate Reeves is doing on the coronavirus pandemic consist-
ently with how they view his overall job performance. Unlike Trump, however, Reeves receives high marks
from both those more concerned about the physical threat of coronavirus (78% approve) and those more
concerned about the economic threat (90% approve), signaling that Reeves actions to date have hit the
mark with the voting populace.

Coronavirus Threat
Q14: “Which threat do you believe poses the greater risk to you and your loved ones - the phys-
ical harm that coronavirus poses to your health and wellbeing, or the economic hardship caused
by coronavirus as a result of job losses or reductions in personal income?”

Physical Health/Wellbeing 47.39%

Economic Hardship 40.07%
Undecided/Refused 12.54%

Voters are split on whether the greater threat of coronavirus lies in its physical threats or the economic
hardship caused by job losses, with physical health a greater concern by a small margin. Economic hard-

ship is the primary concern among voters under the age of 65, however those 65 and older lean heavily
towards the physical health impact (56% to 29%). Divisions also emerge along racial lines. 46% of white
voters put economic hardship over physical health (42%), while 62% of black voters put physical health

over economic hardship (23%). Along party lines, Republicans (48% to 43%) and Independents (49% to
40%) prioritized economic health, while Democrats leaned more so to physical health (61% to 21%).
Women are more concerned about the physical impact of the virus (52% to 36%), while men leaned slightly

towards economic hardship ( 44% to 43%).

Coronavirus Perspective
Q15: “Which of the following statements comes closer to your view (Rotate): Our leaders should
do everything in their power to stop the spread of the virus, even if means hurting our economy
OR Our leaders should seek to minimize the damage to our economy even if it means not tak-
ing steps, such as fully sheltering in place, to stop the virus.”

Health First 42.61%

Economy First 38.76%
Undecided/Refused 18.63%

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Voter opinions on the state’s policy response to coronavirus, was largely consistent with how voters prior-
itized the virus’ risk, with some minor differences. While 42% of white voters indicated they were more
concerned with the physical impact of coronavirus, only 32% said that state leaders should take step that

might hurt the economy. African American sentiment differed in the reverse. While 23% said that eco-
nomic hardship was the greater threat, only 14% said that the state should put the economy first. A clear
trendline was evident between how voters answered this question and their income. Lower income voters
were much more concerned about putting public health first, while higher income voters were much more
focused on putting the economy first (see slide presentation for comparison).

Reeves Coronavirus Approach

Q16: “Some people say Governor Reeves has been too focused on the economy during this
pandemic, and that he should have shut down more businesses earlier and for a longer period of
time to keep workers safe. Other people say Tate Reeves has been too focused on stopping the
spread of the virus and as a result has been too strict closing businesses and endangering our
jobs. Which of these statements is closer to your view?”

Too Loose 35.31%

Too Strict 29.96%
About Right (not read) 26.53%
Undecided/Refused 11.21%

Voters are nearly evenly split in how they view Governor Reeves’ response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Overall results are consistent across age. The views of white voters differ slightly from the overall, while
African Americans largely think the Governor has been too loose (57%). Among Republicans, 33% said
the Governor’s actions have been “about right”, 31% “too strict”, and 25% “too loose”. As with the
previous question, income correlates with how voters view Reeves’ approach. Lower income voters
leaned towards “too loose” while higher income voters leaned more towards “about right” and “too
strict”. Men and women differed significantly on this question with 29% of men saying “too loose”, 30%
“too strict”, and 31% “about right” and 42% of women saying “too loose”, 24% “too strict”, and 22%
“about right”.

Reeves Criticism
Q17: “Governor Reeves was one of the last governors to issue a shelter in place order and was
one of the first governors to reopen his state's economy. Both those decisions were criticized by
the national press for not being cautious enough. Governor Reeves says he is trying to make de-
cisions to protect the physical health and the economic health of Mississippi families. Do you
agree with Governor Reeves or his critics in the national media?”

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 Agree with Reeves 71.83%
Agree with National Media 20.56%
Undecided/Refused 7.61%

Voters in Mississippi broadly agree with Governor Reeves over his decisions to open the state’s econ-
omy, particularly when Reeves’ actions are pitted against criticism by the national media. Despite the
fact that 35% of voters previously indicated Reeves had been “too loose”, only 21% agree with the na-
tional media criticism. Voters of all age groups sided with Reeves, with the strongest support coming
from older voters. Responses on this question again correlated with income. Agreement with Reeves
increased with income, while lower income respondents sided more with the national press. Reeves
maintained strong agreement among both men and women, however women (65%) fell 13 percentage
points lower in their agreement than men (79%).

Outside Auditor
Q18: “The federal government has sent 1.25 billion dollars to Mississippi to deal with the long-
term effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Governor Reeves has announced that he will put in
place an outside auditor to make sure Mississippi spends the money consistent with the protec-
tions included in federal law. Do you support or oppose this decision by Governor Reeves to ap-
point an outside auditor to oversee these funds?”

Support 73.63%
Oppose 16.54%
Undecided/Refused 9.83%

Nearly 3 out of 4 Mississippi voters support the Governor’s decision to appoint an outside auditor to
oversee federal coronavirus funds with 59% of those surveyed saying they “strongly support” the deci-
sion. An outside auditor was favored by Republicans (81%), Democrats (60%), and Independents (75%),
and exceeded 50% among all ideological groups – from the very conservative to the very liberal. Sup-
port for an outside auditor was consistent in all four congressional districts, with the highest support in
CD4 (82%).

Mail-In Ballots
Q19: “Currently there is a debate over the use of mail-in ballots for the November election.
Some argue that because of coronavirus, no excuse mail-in ballots should be made available to
all voters regardless of their ability to go to the polls. Others argue that widespread mail-in bal-
lots can result in increased voter fraud. Do you support or oppose widespread use of mail in
ballots in Mississippi this November?”

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 Support 29.03%
Oppose 60.82%
Undecided/Refused 10.15%

For Mississippi voters, the potential for voter fraud outweighs concern over coronavirus when it comes to
no excuse mail-in ballots for the November election. Not only did 61% of voters oppose this idea, 53%
were “strongly opposed”. Opposition was consistent across all age groups, with voters 65+ the most
supportive (36%). White voters oppose mail-in ballots 61% to 19%, while African Americans support it 53%
to 36%. Women were more favorable to mail-in ballots (34%) than men (24%), but the majority of women
still opposed the change (57%).

Demographics

AGE *weighted RACE

18-34 8.00% White 67.26%

35-49 20.00% Hispanic 0.38%

50-64 32.00% Black 25.60%

65+ 39.00% Asian American 0.14%

Refused 1.00% Native American 0.65%

Other 1.89%

Don’t Know/Refused 4.07%

IDEOLOGY INCOME

Very Conservative 34.78% < $25,000 13.90%

Somewhat Conserva-
25.81% $26-50,000 21.60%
tive

Moderate 27.13% $51-75,000 15.48%

Somewhat Liberal 5.01% $76-100,000 11.23%

Very Liberal 1.52% > $100,000 20.24%

Don’t Know/Refused 5.75% Refused 17.53%

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GENDER GEOGRAPHY

Male 49.34% CD1 25.33%

Female 50.66% CD2 24.80%

CD3 25.20%

CD4 24.67%

PARTY

Republican 50.94%

Democrat 25.56%

Independent 15.04%

Something Else 6.43%

Don’t Know/Refused 2.03%