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“All the work contained within is my own unaided effort and conforms to the
University's guidelines on plagiarism.”
A large chunk of value in Ford’s share comes from its cash balances. These balances
belong to the shareholders and should be returned to them for investment as they see
fit, if no economic value creating opportunities are present within the company’s core
business itself.
Although Modigliani and Miller opine that the form of distribution of cash to
shareholders, whether by dividend or repurchase is irrelevant, an assumption here is
that all investors are total return maximizing, precluding any preference for dividends
(annuities or pension funds) or for capital gains (growth oriented wealthy investors
with higher tax brackets). It also ignores the signalling effects of dividends or
repurchases. The primary objective of a company is survival; secondary is
maximizing value for its shareholders. The cost of capital for Ford in 1999 was 11.5%
[1], hence it can be assumed that it would not change drastically for 2000. It can be
proved that Ford is a business with a lower PVGO component to the P/E ratio and
individuals would have a preference for a stable and continuous stream of income,
and decide on investment themselves.
Proof 1:
K = 11.5%
P = 51.38
EPS=5.86
Therefore:
PVGO = P – EPS/k
PVGO = 0.423
The current price of the Ford share owes only a miniscule amount of it to its growth
potential; hence the best alternative is an extraordinary cash dividend as it would
create greatest value for the common shareholder.
Institutional Investor
As an institutional investor, a lot would depend on the taxation rules being applied for
that company. Pension funds like TIAA- Cref and the Calpers would prefer cash for
two reasons. Firstly, pension funds always need to have a strong position of liquidity.
Since pensions of their clients need to be given out rapidly and regularly, a strong
cash balance is a pre-requisite for a pension fund to perform properly. Secondly, a
pensions fund’s income is not taxed. For other institutional investors, the choice could
depend heavily on the way they are taxed for non-operating income. The VEP
mentions that the cash dividend would be taxed like a capital gain, but only if the
stake in the company was less than 1% and it had no control over corporate affairs.
Larger institutions would presumably have large stakes and hence prefer additional
shares to save on tax.
Individual Investor
As in investor, the cash dividend v/s the issue of more shares is a highly debatable
matter. Some would argue that the announcement of a large cash dividend can be a
bad thing as it means that future growth of the company is low and there are no
further investable opportunities, hence preferring a cash dividend. However Ford’s
management have also announced the spin off of Visteon, a subsidiary of Ford. This
can give the market a positive sign of growth and confidence in the future. It might
then seem that a growth investor would benefit with a payout of shares and the short-
term investor would prefer the cash pay out as the cash dividend would be treated as a
capital gain as far as tax was concerned. However keeping in mind the company’s
record of dividend pay outs, a sudden surge of payout due to the VEP, would signal
that growth opportunities are indeed scarce and the company has no better alternative
than to distribute the excess cash to shareholders. A $20 payout for each share held as
stock or cash is a massive change from the $0.50 currently being paid every quarter
for each share held. As a result, it is more likely that the jump signifies that growth
opportunities are limited for the future, and hence an individual investor would prefer
a cash dividend.
References:
1. Depamphilis, D. M. (2007). Mergers, acquisitions, and other restructuring
activities. Academic Press advanced finance series. Amsterdam, Academic.