SBCFootball Preview

Football Betting 08/09 – The Definitive Guide
Your Free In-depth 08/09 football season betting preview exclusively from
www.secretbettingclub.com
WELCOME
August 2008.
Hello and welcome to this extra special 2008/2009 new football season betting guide
produced free by the Secret Betting Club. Through our contacts in the betting world we
have drawn together some of the finest sports betting minds to get the lowdown on the
best betting advice for the new football season.
Forget your other free previews and newspaper pullouts full of unproven advice, worn-out
cliché’s and shortsighted views as this definitive guide is the only thing you will need to
hammer the bookies where it hurts this coming football season!
Each new season brings new opportunities to all of us who like to make money betting on
this fantastic sport. Over the close season we have seen a great deal of changes at each
club, whether it be the playing squad, the manager or even these days billionaire owners
and as always these changes bring with it new angles for betting profits.
You will find many season previews produced by the media over the next few weeks, but
none as thorough and varied as the material contained in this special publication. Many ex-
players and TV pundits will offer their views in the newspapers, but pundits and TV
personalities have proven to be poor tipsters time and time again. Following them blindly is
a fast track to the poor house and if you are serious about making money betting you need
to listen to the real experts.
This is where we come in as the experts listed in this special preview each have a proven
track record of making money from betting on football. Each expert has a specialist niche
area whether it is Asian Handicap betting or spotting value in the Scottish lower leagues.
The constant theme in this guide is that these experts DO MAKE MONEY FOOTBALL BETTING
and nowhere else will you get such free advice and information of this calibre before the
new season.
We know each expert listed here is worth following as they are all proofed to us
independently at our Secret Betting Club service - www.secretbettingclub.com. All of these
experts have been tracked over a number of years to make a profit betting and we, like our
SBC members follow them in with our own money.
Take your time to read through the thoughts of each expert and follow them in on a
number of their advised bets should you so wish. Many of the listed ante post bets were
sent to the tipster’s paying subscribers in advance to ensure they do not miss out on value
prices. Prices therefore do vary slightly as the bookmakers have altered their odds
especially if a lot of money is down. If you do miss the odds on the advised bets, there is
still plenty of detailed analysis to help you with your own decision-making.
If you enjoy the analysis from any of our experts listed here, please make sure you visit
each website for more information on each service and how to pick up more advice from
them in the future.
Equally if you are not yet making money betting, then you must seriously consider a Secret
Betting Club membership. We have helped countless people both make and save money
betting through our full service, details of which can be found at
Page 1
If you enjoy this free issue, be sure to visit us at to let us know your thoughts, as we would
love to hear from you.
Here is to a profitable season!
Mike Bishop & Dan Jones

Editors – Secret Betting Club
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CONTENTS:
Welcome: Page 1.
About Us: Page 3.
Sample Edition: Page 4.
The Experts: Page 5.
How To Use: Page 5.
Tipster Profiles: Page 6.
English Premier League: Page 10.
English Football League: Page 51.
Scottish Football: Page 60.
Spanish Football: Page 74.
Betting Podcasts: Page 78.
Racing Proofing: Page 79.
Friday Freebie: Page 79.
Disclaimer: Page 80.
SECRET BETTING CLUB: ABOUT US

The Secret Betting Club is a private member services dedicated to illustrating exactly how
to make money betting. We do this by researching and monitoring different advisory
services and recommending who to follow to do exactly this. Equally, we also report on
those tipster services that we feel you should avoid and in doing so can save you money.
We have been in operation since May 2006 and have produced over 27 issues of our
renowned monthly reports, which contain all the information you need to get started on
the quest to make money betting.
We ourselves are professional gamblers who put our own money on the line in our quest to
make regular profits from sports. We do this by following the exact methods that we share
with all members.
In fact, you can see evidence of our actual success by visiting

www.secretbettingclub.com/evidence and viewing real screen grabs from our own personal
betting accounts.
We enjoy (as do many of our members) a lifestyle supported by professional gambling and it
is our mission to make this happen for all. Put simply, it is possible to make money
betting!
By joining the Secret Betting Club, you will automatically have an edge over thousands of
punters still scratching around for consistent profits.
Don’t delay, join today by visiting www.secrebettingclub.com
Mike Bishop & Dan Jones

Editors – Secret Betting Club.
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FREE: SAMPLE EDITION

If you would like to see a sample edition of our work at the Secret Betting Club and get a
flavour of what exactly it is that we do, you can now pick up a free sample edition.
Simply visit www.secretbettingclub.com and enter your email address at the top of the
page where instructed. We will then forward on immediately an example of our work to
you.
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Football Betting 08/09: THE EXPERTS

This special 2008/2009 football season preview features contributions from four different
experts from the world of football betting advice. Each expert has a pedigree of betting
success and has been specifically chosen to supply the advice found in this special edition.
All of this combined will help to give you every possible advantage when it comes to making
money in the new football season. For each expert we have listed their specific betting
advice for the leagues and competitions upon which they are focusing and provided the
best odds available at the time of publishing. As the opinion of each expert is well
respected and followed by many shrewd gamblers, there may well be changes in the odds
on offer as the bookmakers react and try to limit their exposure on each bet.
We recommend that you use an odds comparison service such as at www.oddschecker.com

or http://www.bestbetting.com to look up the best prices on each selection.
Also check out http://www.racingproofing.com/fridayfreebie/bestodds.html &

http://www.racingproofing.com/fridayfreebie/book_promo.html for the best bookmaker
deals and latest promotions.
For the latest results and free weekly emails highlighting useful statistics, visit
http://www.footballbettingresults.co.uk
If you have any questions about this issue or wish to contact the editor, feel free to do so
via mike@secretbettingclub.com
Football Betting 08/09: HOW TO USE

We have split this Preview edition into a number of sections for easy use.
Tipster Profiles
A rundown of each of the four experts supplying advice, details on their background, their
past success and performance as well as how to find out more on their service’s.
Section one – English Premier League

All the analysis and bets for the biggest league in the world, the English Premier League. A
detailed look into each club and their prospects for the new season as well as other angles
such as the handicap market and betting without the big 4.
Section 2 – English Championship, League 1 and League 2

All the analysis and bets from the English Championship down to League 1 and League 2,
featuring some of the most competitive action and providing some very interesting
opportunities for making money betting. Bookmakers make regular pricing mistakes down at
these levels and a real profitable edge can be found here as our experts highlight.
Section 3 – Scottish Football

All the analysis and bets from the Scottish Premier League down to League’s 1, 2 & 3. Again
great value can be found at this level and with shrewd analysis and good contacts; a profit
can be made here.
Section 4 – Spanish Football

All the analysis and bets from the La Liga in Spain, home to some of the most talented and
exciting footballers in the world. Our expert looks at the market without the big 2 – Real
Madrid and Barcelona and finds some value angles worth exploring.
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TIPSTER PROFILE: THE ORACLE

The Oracle: http://www.football-bets.co.uk
Specialist Areas:
• English Premier League

• Championship
• League one & Two
• Internationals & Friendlies
The Oracle has a real edge as he used to work fulltime in the industry as an odds compiler
and he still does consultancy work. He has now turned his attentions towards making money
betting for himself and his members to great success.
The Oracle has to remain anonymous to protect his identity from being revealed to the
bookmakers who would not be best pleased to find out one of the ‘own’ was working
against them.
Over the past year, he has certainly proven his football-betting prowess and knowledge in
some style. In this, his first season of supplying football betting tips, The Oracle has
generated 67 pts profit, with a ROI of around 20%.
The Oracle is a specialist when it comes to football betting, spending many hours
researching and watching football in order to generate his edge over the bookie. He also
has a number of useful contacts in the industry, who he speaks with regularly, debating the
strengths and weaknesses of different teams, players and coaches.
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TIPSTER PROFILE: INSIDER MR X

The Insider: http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/INSOP/
Specialist Areas:

• Sports Statistics
• Scottish Premier League
• Spanish La Liga.
• Internationals
Our next expert and contributor to this special 2008/2009 football season preview is Mr X, a
fantastic and long-term proven winner when it comes to Sport Betting. I asked Matt Nesbitt,
the publisher for Mr X, to introduce us all to Mr X, his history and details on his advice for
this preview. Over to you Matt…
I have worked with ‘Mr X’ for seven years, publishing his original tipping service The
Insider first with Fleet Street Publications and now Oxfordshire Press. Going on to develop
his Text Message tipping service Bet Bank Alerts, his American Football service The
Linebacker and his Europe-wide football advisory The Sports Statistician. Forgive the
‘cloak and dagger’ stuff with the name, but the truth is he is still active in the betting
world and revealing his true identity would seriously compromise his access to certain
information and key industry contacts. So Mr X it is.
An odds compiler for over 25 years, Mr X worked the race-courses before switching to the
trading floors of some of the UK’s biggest bookmakers – generating millions for his
paymasters. Then in 2001 he turned the tables, launching his career as a tipster.Applying
his unique experience alongside a voracious appetite for studying statistics, Mr X seeks out
‘value’ betting opportunities. Whether it is spotting bookmaker errors, or simply moving
first on an under-researched market, this approach has generated steadily growing profits
for all his service, year on year.
Matt Nesbitt
For more information on Mr X and his services, see the links below:

Bet Bank Alerts: http://www.betbankalerts.co.uk/
Matt Nesbitt is the publisher of Mr X’s tipping service listed, plus:
www.FootballBettingResults.co.uk
www.Sportsxtra.co.uk
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
www.HorseRacingFocus.co.uk
www.Sports-Stat.co.uk
Many of his featured articles originally appeared in The Sports Statistician - a weekly stats-
based advice, providing tips and advice on all 5 UK leagues plus the top divisions from
Scotland, Spain, Italy and Germany. If you’d like to find out more and claim an exclusive
THREE MONTH TRIAL, click here: http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/TSS78/
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TIPSTER PROFILE: SPORTS INVESTOR

Sports Investor: http://www.sports-investor.net
Specialist Areas:

• Championship
• Spanish La Liga.
• German Bundesliga
• Internationals
• Asian Handicap
Sports Investor is a sports handicapping service that focuses on some of Europe’s biggest
football leagues. The service is the culmination of a skill set developed over more than a
decade. Asian Handicap and over/under markets are used extensively. The service
combines extensive knowledge of financial concepts, statistical methods and a deep-rooted
understanding of the leagues they specialize in to deliver profitable advice.
A neat and professional service, Sports Investor takes pride in going the extra mile. They
provide users with previews, analysis and thoughts on other fixtures from their leagues of
specialization, and extensive money management guidance in addition to the advice on
offer. This is a service that takes pride in turning its customers into better gamblers, and
better investors!
This season, Sports Investor will be introducing SMS notifications and improving customer
experience through a brand new website. With the upcoming launch of their new website at
www.sports-investor.net on the 8th of August, they will be looking to build on an impressive
first 2 years of operations where they have delivered almost 575 selections at a yield of
over 13%, with average odds at just 1.92! Service gets underway on the 15th of August.
Sports Investor will be offering SBC Members special discounts. Contact support@sports-
investor.net for details.
Sports Investor: http://www.sports-investor.net
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TIPSTER PROFILE: GREG GORDON (Scottish

Football)
Scottish Football: http://www.scottishfootballbets.com/
Specialist Areas:
• Scottish Premier League.

• Scottish Divisions one, two & three.
• Internationals.
Greg Gordon is a true expert when it comes to betting and during the football season, he
operates his very own Scottish Football advisory service. He utilises his professional
contacts, his eye for betting value and his inside out knowledge of the 42 teams in the
Scottish league to beat the bookmaker.
Greg over the past season on Scottish Football produced a profit of 35 pts and a Return on
Investment of around 12% to indicate his success in this market. Each of his tips also come
with extremely detailed analysis as to why it has been selected, which is a hallmark of all
Greg’s work. He also provides an equally profitable international betting component to his
service and you can read all about his last season’s efforts in his comprehensive End of
Season Review at www.scottishfootballbets.co.uk
You would be hard pushed to find anyone as well versed in all aspects of football ‘North of
the border’ and Greg constantly beats the bookmaker in these markets.
Scottish Football: http://www.scottishfootballbets.com/
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SECTION 1.
ENGLISH PREMIER
LEAGUE
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THE ORACLE: Premier League Preview

Team By Team Analysis & Recommendations.

Arsenal:
The Gunners have lost three midfield players in Hleb, Gilberto and Flamini and only brought
in Nasri, Ramsey is too young and won’t play many games in my opinion. Nasri has potential
but is lightweight and could take time to get to grips with the physical demands of the
Premiership. Hleb was a very important player for Arsenal and although they will probably
sign another midfielder in the next couple of weeks, I cant help feeling they will be weaker
than last season. Eboue gets far more starts than Arsenal fans would like and they do not
have enough strength in depth. I also think that Adebayor overachieved last season and
cant see him getting anywhere near as many this year. As impressive as last season's tally
was, six of his goals did come against Derby. Arsenal also have a very tricky run in with trips
to Liverpool, Portsmouth and Man Utd as well as Chelsea at home to negotiate in their last
six fixtures.
Aston Villa:
Villa have been linked with players all summer but at the time of writing the only quality
players they have added are Sidwell and Friedel. Several squad players have left leaving
Martin O'Neill's side looking very thin on numbers. Captain Gareth Barry will almost
certainly join Liverpool which should spark some incoming transfer activity at Villa Park. At
the moment I think Villa are three or four top players away from challenging for a
Champions league place. The quality of player Villa need to bring command very large
transfer fees and I can not see them throwing around silly money. A decent Uefa cup run is
probably on the cards and unless O'Neill adds considerably to the size of his squad, it could
well prove a distraction in the league. 5th place is the best they can hope for.
Blackburn:
Last season's seventh place finish was the fifth time in seven years Rovers had made the top
ten but it could be the end of a Golden era for the club. The departure of Mark Hughes to
Man city was a huge loss. Whilst Paul Ince's managerial career has started very brightly, he
has a huge job on his hands and very little money to do it with. The trustees of the trust
fund set up for the club by Jack Walker have refused to keep throwing money at a loss
making business. Rovers average gates are amongst the lowest in the Premier league and
the club is struggling financially. They have lost two of their best players in Friedel and
Bentley and replaced them with Robinson and probably Pennant, if the rumours are to be
believed. Santa Cruz is on the wish list of a number of clubs and if he goes too then
Blackburn could really struggle. Paul Ince is unlikely to be given more than half of any
transfer fees received and I expect Blackburn to be a lot weaker next season.
Bolton:
Broke their club transfer record to sign Elmander from Toulouse but whilst his physical
stature should stand him in good stead in the Premiership, I can't see him being particularly
prolific. Anelka and Diouf have departed and Bolton have few flair players to call upon.
Gary Megson will look to play direct football and to continue Bolton's physical tradition.
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However, he was never a popular appointment and should he fail to take maximum points
from opening home games against Stoke and West Brom, then the knives could be out by
the time they have played Man Utd and Arsenal at the end of September. Bolton will be
lucky to stay up and much will depend on who replaces Megson if Bolton start badly.
Chelsea:
Their points tally of eighty five last season was the first time in the history of English
football that it hadn't been good enough to win the league. Failure in Moscow too was
enough to cost Avram Grant his job. New coach Filipe Scolari has an impressive record but
he has inherited an ageing squad and several want away players. Lampard and Drogba both
openly courted moves away from Stamford bridge but both look set to stay one more
season. Drogba will miss the start of the season through injury and with Shevchenko
seemingly out of the picture, and Kalou at the Olympics, that leaves Anelka as their only
forward option. Robinho is a reported target but Madrid are unlikely to sell. Chelsea
undoubtedly have a squad capable of winning the league but much will depend on how
quickly they gel under their new manager. The opening month with limited forward options
could prove critical as Chelsea were the lowest scorers of the top four last season.
Everton:
Despite a top five finish there are dark clouds over Goodison. A new stadium saga that has
been rumbling on for a number of years now threatens to disrupt the harmony at the club.
Chief Executive Keith Wyness, who had been the driving force behind the project, recently
resigned and the uncertainty has prevented David Moyes from been giving funds to
strengthen. There were widespread rumours on Merseyside last week that Moyes had
resigned but whilst these proved to be unfounded, all is clearly not well. Moyes needs four
or five players if he is to cope with the extra demands of a Uefa cup run as Everton have
one of the smallest squads in the league. They need Andy Johnson's protracted transfer to
Fulham to go through in order to free up funds, and I'm sure one or two will be brought in,
but that may not be enough. It will certainly not bridge the eleven point gap to fourth
place and at this rate Everton will be lucky to qualify for Europe again next season.
Fulham:
Roy Hodgson kept Fulham up by the skin of their teeth last season. He has set about
discarding a lot of dead wood over the summer and brought in some decent players. Two
goalkeepers have arrived in highly rated youngster David Stockdale and experienced pro
Mark Schwarzer. Zoltan Gera has been brought into the midfield whilst Andrew Johnson
should complete a move from Everton by the end of the week. Jimmy Bullard's injury
problems are behind him and if they can keep hold of him then they have the basis of a
decent side. A top half finish is not beyond Fulham if Andrew Johnson rediscovers his
scoring boots, Bobby Zamora could also do well at Craven cottage. I think they have enough
quality to stay up again and a decent cup run is not beyond them.
Hull:
I'm not quite sure how the Tigers got into the Premiership, but one thing you can be sure of
is that they wont be there long. Lacking any real star players Hull manager Phil Brown has a
huge job on his hands and if he keeps them up it will be nothing short of a miracle. I cannot
see where the goals are going to come from now that Fraizer Campbell has gone back to
Man Utd. They don't have a particularly big squad either and an injury crisis could see them
equalling record lows. The main positive is that they have a decent manager in Phil Brown
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who should get the best out of what he's got. In the last ten years fourteen out of thirty
promoted teams have gone straight back down and I fully expect Hull City to join that club.
Liverpool:
Off the field uncertainty continues to overshadow Rafael Benitez's side and they are still
missing that elusive "final piece in the jigsaw". Robbie Keane should link up well with
Gerrard and Torres but Liverpool are still lacking in wide areas with Ryan Babel the only
quality option. Pennant is likely to be shipped out and Benayoun could go too although both
are no more than fringe players. The Reds have been linked with David Silva throughout the
summer and if they got him then the jigsaw would be very close to being complete.
However, it is unlikely as Barry looks likely to sign imminently and eat up the remainder of
the transfer budget. I find Benitez's pursuit of Barry quite puzzling. Although Alonso has
struggled for consistency over the last couple of seasons I think he is a better player on his
day and I don't rate Barry as being worth any more than £10million. If Barry does sign then
it looks like headless chicken Dirk Kuyt will continue on the right and Liverpool will
continue to lack creativity in wide areas. It cost them last season as they lost less games
than Man Utd but drew far too many. Injury to Gerrard or Torres for any significant period
would end Liverpool's title challenge instantly. The return of Daniel Agger at the back is a
major positive however.
Manchester City:
City have some decent players in their squad and Mark Hughes should be able to coax the
best out of them. Ben Haim is a decent signing but I'm a little surprised that Mark Hughes
forked out so much money for Jo. The Brazilian was a hit in Russia but I'm not sure how
suited he will be to the Premiership. Elano, Petrov, Johnson and Richards are all good
players too however and I expect some more new signings before the transfer window
shuts. Fifth or sixth are realistic targets and a good cup run is not out of the question. A
little patience will be required from City's Thai owner however, City are still some way off
the top four.
Manchester Utd:
Christiano Ronaldo's transfer saga has overshadowed Utd's League and European cup double
as well as unsettling the dressing room. I think Utd face a difficult year with or without
Ronaldo as they will be the team everybody wants to beat. Even if he does stay, he is
injured until October anyway and by that time Utd could be a fair way off the pace. The
Champions first eight away games are all against teams who finished in the top nine last
season including Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Without Ronaldo Utd could drop a lot of
points in these games and his importance to them cannot be highlighted enough. Ronaldo
was incredibly responsible for 39% of Man Utd's league goals and without him they quite
simply would not be champions. The signing of Berbatov from Spurs could potentially soften
the blow although he has proved highly temperamental in the past. The likes of Scholes and
Giggs are on their last legs and Anderson and Nani will need to have big seasons if Utd are
to retain their title. I will be looking to oppose them early in the season.
Middlesbrough:
Middlesbrough fans will be crying out for some excitement this season after becoming far
too used to mid table mediocrity. Boro have finished between 11th and 14th eighth times in
the last ten seasons but this season seems to be shaping up just the same. They have two or
three good players but plenty of average ones and Alfonso Alves will need to have a good
season if they are to reach the top half. Tuncay and Downing are also capable of
Page 13
contributing quality but it is at the other end of the pitch where Boro's problems lie. Brad
Jones and Ross Turnbull will battle it out to replace Mark Schwarzer in goal but neither are
very experienced. They will also have a defence in front of them that leaked fifty three
goals last season. Improving on an away record that seen Middlesbrough win just three
times away from home last season is another priority if European qualification is to be
achieved.
Newcastle:
There were newspaper reports at the weekend of possible major investment but as it stands
the Geordies are skint and have not got the funds to strengthen. Fabricio Coloccini looks set
to sign, and he would be a very good addition, but there are unlikely to be too many more
without new investment. Coloccini could form a good partnership with Steven Taylor and it
is an area that definitely needs attention after Newcastle conceded sixty five goals last
season. They have a top keeper in Shay Given and a potentially potent attack in Michael
Owen and Obafemi Martins but that's about it. Newcastle have no strength in depth and
could struggle badly if Michael Owen cant shake off his injury problems. I am not convinced
at all about the return of Kevin Keegan as manager and it is well known that he is very
limited tactically. He will try to play good attacking football which will please the locals,
but I'm not sure how pleased they'll be with the messiah if they end up in a relegation
battle.
Portsmouth:
FA cup winners Portsmouth have a very useful side and are capable of improving on their
eighth place finish last season. Peter Crouch and Jermaine Defoe could form a classic little
and large partnership and I can see them scoring plenty of goals. The loss of Sully Muntari is
a blow but Pompey still have the creative influence of Niko Krancjar and the physical
presence of Papa Diop. They have one of the best defences in the league boasting sixteen
clean sheets last season and look set to add Kaboul and Nicky Shorey to their squad. The
one area that needs strengthening is the wings and if Redknapp is given the money from
selling Muntari then he could have quite a formidable first eleven. Fratton Park is now one
of the most difficult places to go in the country and not many sides will leave with three
points. Portsmouth will have to contend with European football this season and it could yet
prove a distraction.
Stoke:
Like Hull, I just cant see them staying up. A small squad lacking quality and lots of players
who have played in the Premiership and not been good enough such as Diao, Delap, Griffin
and Pericard. Dave Kitson should prove a useful signing but he will need twenty goals if he
is to keep Stoke up and I just can't see it. Stoke's direct approach is unlikely to prove
effective at the top level but with plenty of height in the team they might prove dangerous
from set pieces. It is a very similar outlook to Hull and both should be adding to the growing
list of sides who went straight back down.
Sunderland:
Roy Keane has changed his transfer policy this summer, previously he would only sign a
player if he'd played with them at Man Utd or Celtic or if they were Irish, now he only
wants players who weren't good enough for Spurs. In all seriousness, Chimbonda, Tanio and
Malbranque will strengthen Sunderland's squad and Diouf will add a bit of flem, sorry, I
meant flair. Sunderland's main problem last season was scoring goals and Keane doesn't
seem to have solved it with his signings so far. Whilst he has added a bit of creativity I cant
see anyone who is going to grab fifteen plus goals. Kenwyne Jones will miss the start of the
Page 14
season injured and Diouf is more of a winger than a striker. The Black cats failed to score in
sixteen games last year and will need to improve on that figure if they are to climb up to
mid table safety.
Tottenham:
Twenty players have come and gone since Ramos took over last November as Spurs go
through a transitional period. Robbie Keane has left and Berbatov could soon follow him out
of White Hart Lane. If Berbatov does go then he will surely be replaced by a big name
signing with Spurs linked to the likes of Etoo, Arshavin and Pavlychenko. Modric and Dos
Santos look like good signings who will add creativity to the side whilst Gomes in goal will
be an improvement on Paul Robinson. One concern for me about Spurs is that they might be
a bit lightweight, with the likes of Bale, Modric, Dos Santos and Lennon all lacking inches.
Juande Ramos likes to play open attacking football and I can see Spurs scoring lots of goals
again this season, but I also think they will continue to concede a lot. Both full backs like to
get forward whilst Woodgate and King have had several injury plagued seasons and back up
Dawson is not a player I rate very highly. With all the changes at White Hart Lane in the last
six months I think Ramos's new look side will take a little while to settle. A top six finish
this season would be decent progress and another cup run is a strong possibility.
West Brom:
Boss Tony Mowbray has made some decent signings and the Baggies have by far the best
chance of the promoted clubs of staying up. Scott Carson for £3million is great business and
he is a far better player than given credit for. A high profile error in an England shirt has
caused a huge swing in public opinion about a player who was valued at over £10million six
months ago. Luke Moore is another good acquisition as is full back Mareck Cech who has
Champions league experience with Porto. Mowbray is a good manager and West Brom play
decent football. If they can avoid any major injury problems than they have every chance
of staying up, but their fate is unlikely to be decided until very late in the season. Will fight
it out with three or four established clubs and could come out on top.
West Ham:
It could be a difficult season for the Hammers with cutting the wage bill seemingly the
main priority this summer. They were hampered by a number of injury problems last season
and if they get everyone fit they have a half decent side. However, it is unlikely to be
added to much before the season starts and Alan Curbishley is currently favourite to be the
first manager axed. If they can get Dean Ashton fit then the potential for a decent season is
there, but they have a shaky looking defence which does not inspire confidence. Much is
expected of youngsters Freddie Sears and James Tomkins but they are still very young and
probably another season away from making any serious impact. Could go either way.
Wigan:
Surprised me by staying up last season but look set to struggle again. Summer signings such
as Lee Cattermole and relegated Birmingham pair Kapo and De Ridder do not inspire much
confidence. They have been linked with Jimmy Bullard who would be a great signing but I
cant see why he would want to go back there myself. The thirty four goals they scored last
year was second only to Derby as the lowest tally and this years squad don't look capable of
too many more. Emile Heskey needs a decent partner and Wigan lack the funds to bring
anyone decent in. Last seasons two away victories are another part of the reason they
struggled and the fact that they are backed by the smallest crowd in the Premier league
doesn't help either. Another relegation dog fight is on the cards.
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Summary & Recommended Bets

The top four will almost certainly be the same again, the only thing that will change is the
ordering. I think the winner will come from Man Utd or Chelsea, Liverpool could have a
small chance if they got someone like Silva but off the field problems are likely to derail
any challenge. I Cant see Arsenal challenging with the squad that they currently have and
5/4 Liverpool to finish ahead of Arsenal is tempting. I am only put off by recent history
which has seen Liverpool give up completely on the league once they cannot win it to
concentrate on Europe. The "best of the rest" is very difficult to predict this season. There
are a host of candidates but none that I fancy strongly, Spurs, Villa, City and Pompey all
have chances. At the other end of the table, Hull and Stoke look like certainties to go down
with West Brom, Bolton and Wigan set to scrap it out to avoid the last place. In the top
goalscorer market it is difficult to see past Torres, but he is too short at 4/1. There are too
many negatives against his main challengers, Ronaldo wont reach 30 goals again, especially
as he is set to miss the start of the season with injury. Adebayor overachieved last season
and might have less games with the return of Eduardo. If Berbatov goes to Utd then he
might have to battle it out with Tevez and Rooney for a starting place. Drogba starts the
season injured as well as wanting a move. Rooney never gets anywhere near yet is always
laughably short. The best policy, if you want an interest, is to pick out a bigger priced
player as an each way bet. Defoe at 18/1, Ashton at 66/1 and Andy Johnson (if he goes to
Fulham) at 125/1 wouldn't be the worst bets in the world.
I am going to recommend three bets from the Premiership. Two are Specials and one is for
the Carling cup.
1pt Harry Redknapp to be the top English manager

13/8 at the time of advice with Paddypower
11/10 current best price with Paddypower
This is basically a group match bet between all the clubs with English managers. It doesn't
matter if any of them move during the season, you are betting on their team at the start of
the season. As I've said above, Pompey are a decent little side who are hard to beat at
home, they have a solid defence and have a promising forward partnership in Crouch and
Defoe. The main reason I like this bet however, is that I really cant see the main
challengers doing anything. Newcastle have no money, a small squad and a tactically naive
manager. Blackburn have lost two of their best players and could also lose Santa Cruz,
Hughes has gone and they have no money. West Ham and Middlesbrough are looking at mid
table at best whilst the rest are relegation candidates. Get on Harry.
1/2pt White Hart Lane to witness the most Premier league goals
9/1 at the time of advice with Boyle Sports
4/1 current best price with Boyle Sports
The one thing that is certain about Spurs this season is that there will be goals, oh yes,
there will be goals. Eighty goals were scored at White Hart Lane lane last season, twenty
four more than any other ground. Juande Ramos teams play very attacking open football
and I see no reason why a similar tally should not be racked up this season. They have a
better goalkeeper this year but two very attack minded full backs and two very injury prone
centre backs. I can't understand how Old Trafford can be favourite considering Man Utd
only conceded seven goals at home last season? The Lane should be a strong favourite at
about half the price.
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1/2 pt Liverpool to win the Carling cup 10/1 Skybet

10/1 at the time of advice with Skybet
8/1 current best price with William Hill & Betfred
Ok, not strictly a Premiership bet but I'm lumping it in this section regardless. Liverpool
now have a very large squad after investing heavily in young players over the last two
seasons. The reserve team won the league last season and many of these players will make
up Liverpool's Carling cup team in the earlier rounds. Nemeth, Spearing, Darby and Pacheco
have all been heavily involved in pre season friendlies and are on the verge of the first
team. Just about every top club plays a weakened side in the earlier rounds these days but
Liverpool's should prove stronger than most. 10/1 is too big for a Liverpool side who have a
very good record in this competition winning it a record seven times. The general price is
7/1 and 10/1 is a bit of value.
Note advised odds may have moved significantly since the original publication of this
article. In many cases the tips were advised to the expert’s members first who were able
to get the prices when they were on offer. Unfortunately, we have no control over the
odds moving, especially with the transfer market still open and players moving daily. The
advised bets are presented as ideas only and the odds may lengthen or shorten as the
season progresses.
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SPORTS INVESTOR: Premier League Preview

SPORTS HANDICAPPING
Before reading our extensive preview of the league season, you should be aware that what
we are looking to do here is to introduce you to the analytical framework of how we invest
in Europe’s biggest football leagues. We aren’t looking to share the econometric model we
use and we aren’t looking to layout specific subjective elements. Those are elements that
we derive our edge from, and they are subject to ongoing analysis. Sharing those would
undermine our edge and ultimately make our job more difficult. What we are looking to do
is to provide you with the context needed to start to analyze value. With the start of the
season still 2 weeks away, and the transfer window open for another 4 weeks, we aren’t
looking to offer any advice yet.
Before we start taking a look at the teams, the transfers and performance in 2007/08 let’s
paint a picture of what we’re really after. Sports handicapping is fundamentally different
from other sports betting markets, because handicap markets are in their essence the most
efficient sports betting markets on the planet. The best Asian Handicap bookmakers will set
their odds such that they operate with a balanced book. Consequently, you are betting
against the market when you bet on Asian Handicaps, not against the bookmaker. This is
why bookmakers are willing to take high volume bets, and this is why you’ll never have your
account limited at the best bookmakers out there.
Some consider efficiency a measure of how difficult it is to actually profit from a market,
but others with practical experience of financial markets will probably appreciate the
possibilities that efficient markets do present. The efficiency we experience in sports
betting markets, or indeed financial markets isn’t the form of theoretical efficiency that
discounts all biases instantly. It merely creates a seemingly random path that only superior
information, or a superior analytical skill set can read into.
In order to be successful at this game, you need to develop a deep-rooted understanding of

how markets function. To borrow a term from Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the
Federal Reserve Board in the United States, you need to understand the “irrational
exuberance” of the marketplace. This isn’t a simple process, because markets are dynamic:
they constantly change their valuations, and staying one step ahead of the market is a
challenge that requires a lot of hard work. Understanding and appreciating the basic risk
involved is in many ways fundamental to a healthy betting experience.
Some simple numbers illustrate what we’re really after. The season ending numbers quoted
below are the culmination of many short-term trends. You don’t want to simply back the
same side each and every week, you want to allow the extent to which there is value on a
side to govern your decision on who to back. Yet, picking up on Villa’s strength relatively
early, picking up on the extent of United’s dominance, picking up on Everton’s consistency
or on the sides that would end up with solid mid-table performances were key ingredients
to a solid season in 2007/08. You would have benefited more from appreciating Arsenal’s
qualities early on than you would have from recognizing Chelsea’s title challenge because
the markets expected Chelsea to perform, but they didn’t expect Arsenal to reach the
heights that they did.
English Premier League, Asian Handicap Table

Rank Team P W W 1/2 D L 1/2 L Pt W (%)
1 Aston Villa 38 20 2 1 2 13 7 59.70%
2 Everton 38 17 3 4 5 9 7 60.30%
3 Arsenal 38 16 4 3 4 11 5 57.40%
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4 Blackburn 38 14 8 2 2 12 5 57.60%
5 Portsmouth 38 19 2 0 4 13 5 57.10%
6 Man.Utd 38 15 5 3 2 13 3.5 55.10%
7 Middlesbrough 38 17 4 1 1 15 3.5 54.90%
8 Liverpool 38 16 2 3 4 13 2 52.90%
9 Manchester City 38 14 5 4 1 14 2 52.90%
10 Chelsea 38 12 7 2 2 15 -0.5 49.30%
11 Fulham 38 13 4 2 6 13 -1 48.50%
12 Wigan 38 15 1 3 5 14 -1 48.60%
13 Tottenham 38 14 2 4 3 15 -1.5 47.90%
14 West Ham 38 14 4 2 1 17 -1.5 47.90%
15 Sunderland 38 13 3 3 4 15 -2.5 46.40%
16 Birmingham 38 14 1 2 6 15 -3.5 44.90%
17 Reading 38 14 2 1 3 18 -4.5 43.70%
18 Newcastle 38 11 3 4 1 19 -7 40.30%
19 Bolton 38 12 0 4 5 17 -7.5 39.40%
20 Derby 38 8 5 2 6 17 -9.5 35.40%
The settlement procedure for Asian Handicap betting is such that on occasions bets may see
half your stakes lost and the other half returned, or half your stakes won with the other
half returned. While this may sound complicated, it is relatively easy to grasp. Victor
Chandler offers an excellent explanation of the settlement procedure on Asian Handicap
betting at http://victorchandler.com/help_coupon_pop.jsp?sel=AH and a handy tutorial at
http://victorchandler.com/football_ah_help.jsp
There are always several other distinctions too. Most teams perform better at home, but
the extent of the difference between home and away performances often determines
performance against the spread. Chelsea’s edge at home compared with their edge away,
or Bolton’s edge at home compared with performances away were solid trends to pick up
on. When you’re handicapping sport, you’re after picking up on when a side has been
hammered too hard by the market, when a side hasn’t been given enough credit and when
a side is better in particular situations than the market appreciates.
Chelsea Football Club (ATS)

W
EPL P W Draw L Pt (%)
Home Stats (ATS) 19 6.0 1 12.0 -5.5 34.3
Away Stats (ATS) 19 13.0 1 5.0 5.0 65.6
The markets change their ratings over the course of the season, and staying one step ahead
is the name of the game. When Derby travelled to the City of Manchester in August, they
were handed a 3/4th ball advantage. By April, when they travelled to a side with similar
home strength in Everton, they were offered a 1 and 3/4th ball advantage. Needless to say
which scenario presented better value, despite Derby’s woes being more obvious by April.
Over the course of the season, there are always events which shape the run a particular
side goes on. In 2007/08, one such event was Eduardo’s injury against Birmingham City.
That sparked off a collapse which saw Arsenal go ½ - 6 ½ ATS over a 7-game sequence.
Every season, there are moments that spark of revivals for certain teams, and a near
collapse for others. Picking up on these is central to enjoying a healthy season. Equally
Page 19
important is being able to uncover a tactical edge, an edge in terms of individual players
coming to form or players who enjoy playing against a certain system, an edge due to the
mentality of two sides, an edge due to fitness levels, an edge due to the weather, an edge
due to pitch conditions or a combination of all these factors.
Sports handicapping involves a dynamic process that replicates financial markets better
than most other forms of sports betting. The opportunities that lie within these markets
require an understanding of how markets function, in addition to a deep rooted
understanding of the leagues and teams you specialize in. Understanding the objective, and
being able to place the subjective within the appropriate context is a task that is perhaps
more challenging than it sounds.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE: 2008/2009
With the usual media circus that accompanies a summer’s transfer activity, it has been an
interesting summer in terms of players moving around. Wenger noted that clubs will find it
difficult to fund moves due to the tightening of credit in financial markets across the globe,
but whatever the reason – we have witnessed a summer of consolidation, rather than
extravagance.
It’s important not to believe everything you come across in the media at this stage. Quite
often agents instruct their players to sound interested in potential moves to try and
improve their existing contracts. There is a lot of psychology that goes into a transfer
window, and while the journalists love the summer for all the opportunities it presents
them, our mission is a more sober one.
Is Robbie Keane worth £20 million? We don’t really care! Our only concern is the tactical,
psychological and qualitative difference his signing will make. Good players being sold does
impact clubs, if the replacement isn’t capable of contributing adequately. Just as good
players getting injured impacts results if the club in question doesn’t have adequate
replacements.
If you’re looking to get involved with ante-post markets, squad strength is important but
you have to accept a degree of randomness too. The great unknown is always the extent to
which a club faces injury problems. Indeed, Chelsea’s title win in 2005/06, and United’s
win in 2006/07 were both accompanied by those clubs managing to keep their best players
fit for the majority of crunch fixtures. In 2007/08 however, United’s squad strength saw
them through periods with injuries to Scholes, Rooney and Vidic.
Let’s first draw on history to provide us with a context to start to paint the shape of what
we can expect in 2008/09.
Criteria 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Overall

Total Games 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 2660
Home Wins 165 187 167 173 192 182 176 1242
Home Win
Percentage 43.42% 49.21% 43.95% 45.53% 50.53% 47.89% 46.32% 46.69%
Away Wins 114 103 105 97 111 100 104 734
Away Win
Percentage 30.00% 27.11% 27.63% 25.53% 29.21% 26.32% 27.37% 27.59%
Draws 101 90 108 110 77 98 100 684
Draw Percentage 26.58% 23.68% 28.42% 28.95% 20.26% 25.79% 26.32% 25.71%
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Needless to say, long-term averages tend to be more robust. Therefore, the 46.69% home
win rate, the 27.59% away win rate and the 25.71% draw rate tend to be more significant
figures than those on any individual season.
In England, the top v bottom, top v mid table and mid table v bottom phenomena always
deserve a bit of consideration because this is a league which quite often lacks the
competitiveness seen elsewhere in Europe, or indeed a division down! Two of the last
three seasons have been outliers on historical competitiveness ratios – both accompanied by
an unusually poor side (Sunderland in 2005/06 and Derby in 2007/08). Over the long-term,
average competitiveness ratios tend to be a reasonable estimator of what we can expect
over any given season. As with all trends, it’s important to remain vigilant and to identify
any fundamental shifts when they occur.
Criteria 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Average

Champions 87 83 90 95 91 89 87 88.86
Runners-up 80 78 79 83 83 83 85 81.57
3rd Place 77 69 75 77 82 68 83 75.86
4th Place 71 67 60 61 67 68 76 67.14
Top 4 Total 315 297 304 316 323 308 331 313.43
9th Place 50 51 52 52 55 54 55 52.71
10th Place 46 50 50 47 51 52 49 49.29
11th Place 45 49 48 46 50 50 46 47.71
12th Place 45 49 47 45 48 46 43 46.14
Mid-table 4 Total 186 199 197 190 204 202 193 195.86
17th Place 40 44 39 34 38 38 36 38.43
18th Place 36 42 33 33 34 38 36 36.00
19th Place 30 26 33 33 30 24 35 30.14
20th Place 28 19 33 32 15 28 11 23.71
Bottom 4 Total 134 131 138 132 117 128 118 128.29
Top 4/Bottom 4
Ratio 2.35 2.27 2.20 2.39 2.76 2.41 2.81 2.46
Top 4/Mid-table 4 1.69 1.49 1.54 1.66 1.58 1.52 1.72 1.60
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Ratio
Mid-table
4/Bottom 4 Ratio 1.39 1.52 1.43 1.44 1.74 1.58 1.64 1.53
The next thing to consider is always the relative strength of the sides that add up to form
the league. Historical relative strength is not a particularly good guide of how a club is
expected to perform during any given season, but it is the context within which subjective
elements often gain meaning. It is also the context within which value finds meaning. If you
can pick up on a side that will be unusually good or unusually poor, home or away – that is
likely to yield value at certain stages of any football season.
HISTORICAL RELATIVE STRENGTH

Average
Club Points Home Away Goals Conceded Difference
Chelsea Football Club 86.6 45.6 41 68 23.4 44.6
Manchester United Football Club 82.2 45 37.2 71.4 28.8 42.6
Arsenal Football Club 78.2 45.4 32.8 73 31.8 41.2
Liverpool Football Club 68.8 40 28.8 57.6 31.6 26
Everton Football Club 54.6 33.8 20.8 46.2 44.2 2
Tottenham Hotspur Football Club 53.6 34.4 19.2 54 50.2 3.8
Bolton Wanderers Football Club 52 30.8 21.2 45.8 49.4 -3.6
Blackburn Rovers Football Club 51.8 29 22.8 47.2 49.2 -2
Aston Villa Football Club 51 29.8 21.2 49.8 48.6 1.2
Newcastle United Football Club 48.8 32.2 16.6 45.8 50.2 -4.4
West Ham United + 48.3 28.0 20.3 43.0 54.7 -11.7
Middlesbrough Football Club 47.2 29.2 18 46.4 51.6 -5.2
Manchester City Football Club 46.6 28.2 18.4 43.8 47.6 -3.8
Portsmouth Football Club 46.6 30.2 16.4 44 51.4 -7.4
Fulham Football Club 43.8 29.6 14.2 45.6 56.8 -11.2
Wigan Athletic Football Club + 43.0 24.0 19.0 38.7 54.0 -15.3
West Bromwich Albion * 32 21.5 10.5 33.5 59.5 -26
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Sunderland Football Club * 27 18.5 8.5 31 64 -33

Hull City Football Club n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Stoke City Football Club n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
* signifies that only 2 years of relevant data was available during the sample period
+ signifies that only 3 years of relevant data was available during the sample period
Historical data and every trend you analyze will tell you that we have a divided league –
with the top sides enjoying a gap over the rest of the pack that is significant. Comments
from Kevin Keegan at the end of last season captured the mood of the rest of the pack, who
broadly speaking allow the top-4 to fight it out in a league of their own and concentrate on
Europe as the big prize and consider allaying any relegation fears relatively early in the
season as their goals for the season. Indeed, of the 20 Champions League places on offer
over the last 5 seasons, 19 have gone to the big 4.
While it’s too early in the summer to make a case for there being signs of change on that
front, we have had a relatively quiet transfer window to date which would suggest we’re in
for more of the same. Tottenham are the joker in the pack in terms of transfer activity and
Villa’s current squad perhaps holds maximum potential. We will returns to those themes a
little later.
In terms of the historical strength of teams, Chelsea and United have reigned supreme over
the last few years, while Arsenal have usually given them a run for their money. Liverpool
oscillate between competing for 4th and pushing the top sides all the way. Again, what
happens before the transfer window comes to a close at the end of August will be
important in determining how things shape up, as will injuries, confidence levels and
physical conditioning.
Some of what we’re looking for with the trends above is the degree to which situations
have arisen to cause a fundamental shift. When a team owes much of its success to a
manager rather than the quality of the playing staff and the manager leaves – that is often
a tell-tale signal of a shift. Other signs often include transfer activity or injury problems.
Quite often one or two injuries are the difference between a side outperforming their
historical averages or underperforming them. It’s within the context laid out by history that
present data and developments gain maximum meaning. The numbers used are only as good
as the interpretive spin you put on them.
When you’re looking to start to construct the shape you expect the season to take, one of
the other variables you want to look at is the history of promoted sides in their first season
up. How often do they survive, how often do they go straight back down and what are the
chances of a promoted side surprising the league and finishing in a healthy position?
Promoted Sides in their First Season

Season Club Points Home Away Goals Conceded Difference Position
2003/04 Portsmouth 45 43 11 47 54 -7 13
2003/04 Leicester 33 19 14 48 65 -17 18
2003/04 Wolves 33 26 7 38 77 -39 20
2004/05 Norwich 33 26 7 42 77 -35 19
2004/05 West Brom 34 23 11 36 61 -25 17
2004/05 Crystal Palace 33 23 10 41 62 -21 18
2005/06 Sunderland 15 7 8 26 69 -43 20
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2005/06 Wigan 51 24 27 45 52 -7 10
2005/06 West Ham 55 30 25 52 55 -3 9
2006/07 Reading 55 35 20 52 47 5 8
2006/07 Sheffield United 38 27 11 32 55 -23 18
2006/07 Watford 28 18 10 29 59 -30 20
2007/08 Sunderland 39 30 9 36 59 -23 15
2007/08 Birmingham City 35 26 9 46 62 -16 18
2007/08 Derby 11 8 3 20 89 -69 20
Average 35.9 24.3 12.1 39.3 62.9 -23.5
Of the 15 sides above, 9 were relegated in their first season up, while 6 survived. Of the 6
that survived, 3 managed totals of 50 points or more, earning themselves a top-half
position. Interestingly, the home points bias gets accentuated with promoted sides. Over
the last 5 seasons the overall league average home points bias stood at 1.55:1, compared
with 2:1 on display for newly promoted sides. This is a very broad trend, which is
meaningless without picking up on the right individual sides but it is part of the broader
picture that you need to paint to uncover value.
THE TEAMS
The summer transfer window remains open till the 31st of August, so we still don’t possess a
clear picture of what flavour one or two teams will take. Certain signings hold the potential
to offer teams an attribute that they didn’t previously possess, so thoughts on individual
teams are at this stage are still taking shape.
Of course, on any individual event things are a lot more complicated. Sides that we expect
to finish higher up the table aren’t necessarily the sides we’ll be looking to back at all!
Value on an individual fixture is derived from numerous variables, and a tactical
understanding of the battles involved in the fixture. The outlook expressed below simply
represents the process of developing an understanding of the teams involved.
Arsenal Football Club

Season Points Home Points Away Points Goals Conceded Difference
2003/04 90.0 49.0 41.0 73.0 26.0 47.0
2004/05 83.0 44.0 39.0 87.0 36.0 51.0
2005/06 67.0 45.0 22.0 68.0 31.0 37.0
2006/07 68.0 42.0 26.0 63.0 35.0 28.0
2007/08 83.0 47.0 36.0 74.0 31.0 43.0
78.2 45.4 32.8 73.0 31.8 41.2
2007/08 REVIEW
One of the striking elements in Arsenal’s performances in recent years is that consistency in
performances at home has been mixed with relative inconsistency away. As a unit, Arsenal
are fairly dependent on the quality of their attacking play, and while their build up play is
always of a high standard, they have on occasion (2005/06 and 2006/07) been guilty of
being wasteful in front of goal. In 2007/08, Arsenal exceeded expectations in a season
marked by a steady growth in confidence levels. Fabregas, Adebayor and Flamini were the
outstanding performers, while Sagna, Clichy, Eduardo, Hleb and Rosicky deserve a mention
too.
Page 24
TRANSFER MARKET
Transfers In Transfers Out

Samir Nasri (Marseille) Alexander Hleb (Barcelona)
Aaron Ramsey (Cardiff City) Mathieu Flamini (Juventus)
Carlos Vela (Osasuna) Jens Lehmann (Stuttgart)
Gillberto Silva (Panathinaikos)
OUTLOOK
With about a month remaining till the transfer window comes to a close, Arsenal look to
need a quality central midfielder, preferably a ball winner to give themselves a very strong
starting 11. The lack of a natural leader on the field is an added concern.
Between Nasri and Vela, we do believe the Arsenal have replaced Hleb, but they are yet to
replace Flamini. An injury-free season Van Persie, more playing time for Rosicky and a
return to fitness for Eduardo carry the promise of further improvement for Arsenal, but
prima facie they should struggle to match their 2007/08 points tally.
Aston Villa Football Club

2003/04 56.0 33.0 23.0 48.0 44.0 4.0
2004/05 47.0 30.0 17.0 45.0 52.0 -7.0
2005/06 42.0 24.0 18.0 42.0 55.0 -13.0
2006/07 50.0 29.0 21.0 43.0 41.0 2.0
2007/08 60.0 33.0 27.0 71.0 51.0 20.0
51.0 29.8 21.2 49.8 48.6 1.2
2007/08 REVIEW
Villa’s success in 2007/08 was marked by an unusually high goal tally. Villa had been
labelled boring, predictable and aging in previous seasons, but O’Neil has nurtured Ashley
Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor into two of the Premiership’s deadliest attackers, and John
Carew also impressed in a Villa shirt. Gareth Barry, Martin Laursen, Reo Coker and Bouma
all played important roles in a successful season for Aston Villa. O’Neil also showed tactical
flexibility by playing Petrov in a holding role and offering Ashley Young greater freedom,
when he needed to reignite Villa’s season which was in danger of losing steam.
TRANSFER MARKET

Steve Sidwell (Chelsea) Olof Mellberg (Juventus)
Brad Friedel (Blackburn) Luke Moore (West Brom)
Curtis Davies (West Brom) Patrick Berger (Released)
Thomas Sorensen (Released)
Scott Carson (Loan over)
OUTLOOK
The future of Gareth Barry has been in the spotlight all summer. He is an important player
Page 25
for Villa, because he possesses the one attribute that most others in this squad don’t:
experience. To that end, the signing of Brad Friedel looks a shrewd piece of business. Steve
Sidwell will add competition in midfield and he should fit into Villa quite well.
O’Neil has been linked with two or three high quality players in the transfer window. It’s
worth keeping in mind the fact that Villa may be involved in Europe this season. This Villa
side looks about 3 signings away from possessing a high quality squad which would be
capable of lasting the distance. Whoever comes and goes, O’Neil’s philosophy at Villa and
the personnel they possess should ensure that we’re in for another season of entertainment
with the midlands side.
Blackburn Rovers Football Club

2003/04 44.0 19.0 25.0 51.0 59.0 -8.0
2004/05 42.0 23.0 19.0 32.0 43.0 -11.0
2005/06 63.0 42.0 21.0 51.0 42.0 9.0
2006/07 52.0 30.0 22.0 52.0 54.0 -2.0
2007/08 58.0 31.0 27.0 50.0 48.0 2.0
51.8 29.0 22.8 47.2 49.2 -2.0
2007/08 REVIEW
The Mark Hughes era at Blackburn saw the club establish themselves as a top-half
Premiership outfit. Performances away from home in 2007/08 were particularly impressive,
and Rovers had one of the best records in the Premiership against bottom half clubs.
Hughes’ coaching methods and planning earned plenty of praise through the season, as did
some shrewd business in bringing in further quality (Roque Santa Cruz). Blackburn’s success
emanated from excellent wing-play, with Bentley topping the charts in terms of successful
crosses for the season. Santa Cruz, Bentley and Christopher Samba were key performers for
Blackburn in 2007/08, with Warnock also catching the eye on occasion.
TRANSFER MARKET

Paul Robinson (Tottenham) Brad Friedel (Aston Villa)
Villanueva (Audax Italiano) Bentley (Tottenham)
CHANGE IN MANAGEMENT
In Out
Paul Ince (MK Dons) Mark Hughes (Man City)
OUTLOOK
The most important factor to consider with Blackburn is what the impact of a change in
management will be. The sale of David Bentley sees Blackburn use one of their most
inspirational players from last season. Bentley topped the charts in successful cross
completion and weighed in with his share of goals and assists. Blackburn will be hoping that
Carlos Villanuva, who was Chile’s player of the season last season can fill that void. On the
face of it, Blackburn and Paul Ince have a job on their hands.
Bolton Wanderers Football Club

Page 26
2003/04 53.0 26.0 27.0 48.0 56.0 -8.0

2004/05 56.0 32.0 24.0 49.0 44.0 5.0
2005/06 58.0 38.0 20.0 49.0 41.0 8.0
2006/07 56.0 32.0 24.0 47.0 52.0 -5.0
2007/08 37.0 26.0 11.0 36.0 54.0 -18.0
52.0 30.8 21.2 45.8 49.4 -3.6
2007/08 REVIEW
With Sam Alladyce leaving at the end of the 2006/07 season, Bolton really struggled in
2007/08. Sammy Lee’s transition to the top job was unsuccessful and Phil Gartside brought
in Gary Megson to steady the ship. Megson managed to keep Bolton up despite losing Anelka
in the January transfer window. Yet, Bolton’s performances, particularly away from home
were very, very poor! After averaging nearly 24 points per season away during the previous
4 seasons, Bolton notched up just 11 in 2007/08.
TRANSFER MARKET

Johan Elmander (Toulouse) Andranik (Fulham)
Fabrice Muamba (Birmingham City) Campo (free agent)
Mustapha Riga (Levante) Stelios (free agent)
El Hadji Diouf (Sunderland)
OUTLOOK
The transfer activity to date has been interesting. Bolton have added a physical presence in
midfield in Fabrice Muamba, and a striker who can is very good in the air and a solid
finisher in Swedish international, Johan Elmander. Megson does appear to be gearing his
personnel towards becoming a side that battles hard, and we should see disciplined home
performances and plenty of long balls from Bolton this term. Elamnder’s performances and
the quality of wide play will be important ingredients. Bolton look marginally better than
they did in 2007/08, but they will be one of a number of teams who will need to keep their
best players fit. I wouldn’t expect an awful lot of entertainment at the Reebok, this season.
This is a side constructed to battle, lacking the creative qualities that Diouf, Okocha,
Djorkaeff and company provided in season’s gone by.
Chelsea Football Club

2003/04 79.0 40.0 39.0 67.0 30.0 37.0
2004/05 95.0 47.0 48.0 72.0 15.0 57.0
2005/06 91.0 55.0 36.0 72.0 22.0 50.0
2006/07 83.0 43.0 40.0 64.0 24.0 40.0
2007/08 85.0 43.0 42.0 65.0 26.0 39.0
86.6 45.6 41.0 68.0 23.4 44.6
2007/08 REVIEW
In the media circus that always surrounds the club, it’s easy to forget that by any objective
measure, 2007/08 was a fairly successful season for Chelsea. Their points total was in line
Page 27
with previous seasons, they went undefeated at Stamford Bridge once more and they
reached the Champions league and Carling Cup final. We were sceptical about Avram’s
qualities as a winner, but we have always recognized that with the squad that Chelsea
currently possess, they are always likely to be successful.
TRANSFER MARKET

Deco (Barcelona) Boulahrouz (Stuttgart)
Boswingwa (Porto) Steve Sidwell (Aston Villa)
Ben Sahar (loan to Pompey)
Makalele (PSG)
In Out
Luiz Filipe-Scolari Avram Grant
OUTLOOK
The movement in the transfer market gives Chelsea two things they haven’t had for a few
years: Bosingwa will give them attacking intent mixed with defensive stability down the
right. Deco will offer Chelsea a very different option. He is what they call a desequilibrante
player over in Spain. Scolari’s tactics remain a mystery at this stage, but with the fullbacks
likely to push on further, and with the option of a desequilibrante, Chelsea will possess the
creative options they need to start to build on their goal tally from recent seasons. Scolari
is someone who is capable of winning things, and the early signs are fairly positive for
Chelsea. Scolari does have an ability to contain big egos and belongs to the brand of
managers who emphasize the importance of a group in football. That bodes well for
Chelsea. The missing ingredient appears to be players with a genuine burst of pace and
trickery.
Everton Football Club

2003/04 39.0 29.0 10.0 45.0 57.0 -12.0
2004/05 61.0 38.0 23.0 45.0 46.0 -1.0
2005/06 50.0 28.0 22.0 34.0 49.0 -15.0
2006/07 58.0 37.0 21.0 52.0 36.0 16.0
2007/08 65.0 37.0 28.0 55.0 33.0 22.0
54.6 33.8 20.8 46.2 44.2 2.0
2007/08 REVIEW
Moyes and his men will certainly be happy with the points total they achieved in 2007. The
key elements were that the side was built on a solid foundation: Yobo was a rock at the
back and Lescott’s performances were outstanding. Carsley enjoyed a very good season,
and Yakubu’s goals were perhaps what added to their goal tally. Everton were usually well
organized and they always had enough quality in the shape of Arteta, Cahill and Pienaar to
open up defences. Yakubu was always at hand to convert chances into gaols. It’s worth
remembering however that Everton picked up just 9 points in their last 9 fixtures of the
season after being knocked out of the UEFA Cup by Fiorentina.
Page 28
TRANSFER MARKET

Lee Carsley (Birmingham City)
OUTLOOK
For Everton, continuity has been the key to success. The team spirit at Goodison has been
outstanding. Yet, with a couple of players who’ve been at the club for several seasons
looking to leave on the back of Stubbs being allowed to leave in January, there are just one
or two cracks emerging in David Moyes’ scheme. Everton look like a club that are standing
still, and if the likes of Villa and Tottenham manage to move forward, they could leapfrog
the Toffees, who will be involved in Europe again this year.
Fulham Football Club

2003/04 52.0 31.0 21.0 52.0 46.0 6.0
2004/05 44.0 28.0 16.0 52.0 60.0 -8.0
2005/06 48.0 41.0 7.0 48.0 58.0 -10.0
2006/07 39.0 28.0 11.0 38.0 60.0 -22.0
2007/08 36.0 20.0 16.0 38.0 60.0 -22.0
43.8 29.6 14.2 45.6 56.8 -11.2
2007/08 REVIEW
After the panic sacking of Chris Coleman, Fulham struggled under Lawrie Sanchez last
season. Roy Hodgson miraculously managed to pull the club out of what looked like certain
relegation with a final day victory at Fratton Park. Fulham’s late upturn was marked by the
return of Bullard, impressive performances from new signing Hangeland and skipper Brian
McBride.
TRANSFER MARKET

Andranik (Bolton) Bocanegra (released)
Zoltan Gera (West Brom) Christanval (released)
Schwarzer (Middlebrough) Litmanen (released)
Zamora (West Ham) McBride (released)
Pantsil (West Ham) Pearce (released)
Stoor (Rosenborg) Stefanovic (Norwich)
Omazusi (loan to Norwich)
Tony Warner (Hull)
OUTLOOK
Now, Fulham’s survival bid should give them a lot of confidence. But, we have seen this one
or two times in the recent past: West Brom pulled off a miraculous survival bid, but
followed that up with little or no improvement. West Ham followed their survival by
spending a lot of money to ensure they added to what was already an accomplished squad.
Page 29
Fulham have embarked on what could only be described as total reconstruction, but they
probably lie somewhere between what West Brom and West Ham in terms of the quality of
the squad they now have at their disposal. Hodgson has gone about things in a particularly
balanced manner by adding a variety of qualities: pace and energy upfront, creativity in
midfield and also adding solidity to the backline. The underlying question is whether the
players brought in are Premiership quality. The players signed to date can compete in this
league, but these aren’t players that a squad can be built around. Hodgson looks to be one
big signing away from giving his chance a shot at mid-table safety.
Hull Football Club

2007/08 REVIEW
After fighting off relegation the previous season, Hull’s campaign steadily gained
momentum in 2007/08, and they were the best performing side in the 2nd half of the
season. The strike duo of Caleb Folan and Frazier Cambell was a key ingredient in their
promotion campaign.
Analyzing promoted teams such as Hull is a different ball-game compared with analyzing
teams that have been part of the Premiership in recent seasons. There is little or no
correlation between how a team performs in the Championship, and how they fare a
division up. The most legitimate tool of analysis for teams such as Hull boils down to the
more subjective elements.
TRANSFER MARKET

George Boateng (Middlesbrough) David Livermore (released)
Anthony Gardner (Tottenham) Okocha (released)
Bernard Mendy (PSG) Michael Bridges (loan to Carlisle)
Peter Halmosi (Plymouth)
Geovanni (Manchester City)
Craig Fagan (Derby)
Tony Warner (Fulham)
OUTLOOK
Hull’s transfer activity has seen them acquire more players with experience at this level
than either Stoke or West Brom. Boateng and Mendy are genuinely experienced pros, while
Gardner, Geovanni, Tony Warner and Fagan all have limited experience of playing in this
division. Within the squad, Nick Barmby and Dean Windass have significant experience at
this level, although they are approaching the end of their careers, while Dean Marney has
played at this level before. This isn’t a squad that is particularly likely to make a mark on
the top-half of the Premiership, but depending on how well the new signings settle down,
they will hold a reasonable chance of pulling off enough home performances to give
themselves a genuine chance of survival. Frazier Cambell is likely to stay at Manchester
United and that represents a blow to Hull’s chances of survival. They certainly need a bit
more finishing quality.
Liverpool Football Club

2003/04 60.0 34.0 26.0 55.0 37.0 18.0
Page 30
2004/05 58.0 40.0 18.0 52.0 41.0 11.0

2005/06 82.0 38.0 44.0 57.0 25.0 32.0
2006/07 68.0 46.0 22.0 57.0 27.0 30.0
2007/08 76.0 42.0 34.0 67.0 28.0 39.0
68.8 40.0 28.8 57.6 31.6 26.0
2007/08 REVIEW
2007/08 was a season that started off promisingly for Liverpool before a poor run of form
saw them in the midst of a battle for that final Champions League place. A strong end to
the season however ensured that Liverpool secured a 4th place finish, with a few games to
spare. The fact that the underlying tone was one of disappointment despite being a season
where Liverpool outperformed their historical averages is lost on almost everyone. The
quality of ‘el nino’ (Torres) was the most notable aspect of the season for Liverpool, but a
lack of quality out wide cost Liverpool important points at home, as did another poor
season against the other top sides.
TRANSFER MARKET

Robbie Keane (Tottenham) Peter Crouch (Portsmouth)
Andrea Dossena (Udinese) John Arne Riise (Roma)
Phillip Degen (Borussia Dortmund) Scott Carson (West Brom)
David Ngog (PSG) Danny Guthrie (Newcastle)
Diego Cavilieri (Palmeiras) Harry Kewell (released)
OUTLOOK
After several years at Liverpool, Rafa still gets a lot of stick for not understanding the
English game. The signing of Robbie Keane is however fairly significant – not for the
technical qualities he will bring to Rafa’s squad but for the sporting qualities he will carry.
Hunger, desire, passion and a will to win. In a lot of ways it is on this plane that Liverpool
have been found wanting. Individual form and the return of Daniel Agger will be important
variables in determining just how far Liverpool go in 2008/09. A lack of quality in wide
areas and instability at board level are the major dangers Liverpool face. Rafa must also
start to make rotation more dependent on performance levels.
Manchester City Football Club

2003/04 41.0 24.0 17.0 55.0 54.0 1.0
2004/05 52.0 30.0 22.0 47.0 39.0 8.0
2005/06 43.0 29.0 14.0 43.0 48.0 -5.0
2006/07 42.0 21.0 21.0 29.0 44.0 -15.0
2007/08 55.0 37.0 18.0 45.0 53.0 -8.0
46.6 28.2 18.4 43.8 47.6 -3.8
2007/08 REVIEW
The first season of the Sinawatra era started off with great promise. However, City
struggled away from home all season and the fixture list did have them playing relatively
Page 31
easy home fixtures early in the season. That meant a loss of form late in the season, and
eventually City failed to build on the first half of the season. Their points tally was their
best in 5 years, and the season was marked by Martin Petrov, Michael Johnson and Micah
Richards’ performances, while Ellano’s early season form was also very impressive. City
looked extremely well organized during the first half of the season, but their defending in
the second half of the season (particularly without Richards) left a lot to be desired,
culminating in an 8-1 thrashing at the hands of Middlesbrough on the final day of the
season.
TRANSFER MARKET

Jo (CSKA Moscow) Corradi (Reggina)
Tal Ben Haim (Chelsea) Geovanni (Hull)
Isaksson (PSV)
Mpenza (released)
Samaras (Celtic)
In Out
Mark Hughes (Blackburn) Sven Goran Eriksson (Mexico)
OUTLOOK
Mark Hughes took a couple of weeks to have a close look at what he had at his disposal,
before putting together a list of players he hopes to attract to Man City. Ben Haim was the
first of that lot. Hughes’ arrival was met with Richard Dunne signing a new deal, while
Michael Johnson has also been offered an improved deal. Hughes has been impressed with
Petrov and Jo, and if the past is anything to go by he should be able to identify the areas
that need improvement fairly well. Hughes does enjoy a healthy record in the transfer
market and his training methods are amongst the more advanced in English football. The
impact he makes in his first season is likely to be significant in City’s season. City do look to
need a bit more quality to build on last season’s performance.
Manchester United Football Club

2003/04 75.0 40.0 35.0 64.0 35.0 29.0
2004/05 77.0 42.0 35.0 58.0 26.0 32.0
2005/06 83.0 44.0 39.0 72.0 34.0 38.0
2006/07 89.0 47.0 42.0 83.0 27.0 56.0
2007/08 87.0 52.0 35.0 80.0 22.0 58.0
82.2 45.0 37.2 71.4 28.8 42.6
2007/08 REVIEW
Manchester United’s season was in 2007/08 was constructed around Ronadlo’s form.
Ronaldo was offered plenty of freedom, and the link up play between Tevez, Rooney and
Ronaldo was at times outstanding. At the back, the Vidic and Ferdinand partnership took
further strides forward and they established themselves as one of the best pairings in
Europe. This side is both balanced and fairly young and features some of the most talented
Page 32
footballers on the planet. The signings of Anderson, Tevez and Nani allowed United to
continue performing even when a couple of injuries hit the squad. Ronaldo, Rooney, Tevez,
Vidic, Ferdinand and Evra all had very good season’s, while Carrick, Wes Browne and
Scholes made important contributions. Despite a narrow win in the end, United were by any
objective measure the best side in England in 2007/08.
TRANSFER MARKET

Gerrard Pique (Barcelona)
OUTLOOK
After a substantial outlay on young players last summer, Ferguson has not felt the need to
add to his squad this summer. Keeping hold of Ronaldo appears to be a priority, but it is
likely that Ferguson will look to sign a striker before the transfer window comes to a close
at the end of August. Aerial strength in the final third is perhaps the only quality this side
appears to lack. The larger issue in 2008/09 is likely to be the extent to which the rest of
the pack have narrowed the gap to United, while hunger and desire could play a part as
well. Ronaldo will miss out on the first 6 weeks of the season, and that will be a bit of a
test for United’s squad strength. Three titles in a row will be Ferguson’s main aim is
2008/09, and it will be a massive challenge.
Middlesbrough Football Club

2003/04 48.0 28.0 20.0 44.0 52.0 -8.0
2004/05 55.0 33.0 22.0 53.0 46.0 7.0
2005/06 45.0 26.0 19.0 48.0 58.0 -10.0
2006/07 46.0 33.0 13.0 44.0 49.0 -5.0
2007/08 42.0 26.0 16.0 43.0 53.0 -10.0
47.2 29.2 18.0 46.4 51.6 -5.2
2007/08 REVIEW
2007/08 was a season where things could have been a lot worse. ‘Boro had a host of injury
problems early on and they looked set for a relegation battle. However, they managed to
keep picking up points consistently and they stayed clear of relegation problems, before
finishing the season off with an 8-1 win! The season was marked by the emergence of David
Wheater. Individually, Pogatetz made a clear difference, but few Boro players really stood
out. Gareth continues to try and get his men to play a positive brand of football.
Performance levels were inconsistent once more.
TRANSFER MARKET

Didier Digard (PSG) Lee Cattermole (Wigan)
Marvin Emnes (Sparta Rotterdam) Boateng (Hull)
Schwarzer (Fulham)
Rochemback (Sporting Lisbon)
Mendieta (free)
Dong-Gook Lee (free)
Page 33
OUTLOOK
Gareth has signed two young, but fairly exciting talents while allowing 4 experienced
players and a very good young midfielder to leave. He is working towards a philosophy – he
wants Boro to be young, energetic and exciting. He wants them to pass the ball and excite
crowds (or to at least bring the crowds back!). But, there is a real risk to that philosophy,
particularly when you apply it with limited resources. Boro isn’t an appealing club at the
moment and a few injuries could really stretch the current squad. At the same time, if it all
comes together – Boro could be a surprise package in 2008/09. Southgate’s first choice
team does comprise of a very talented set of players. Signs are we’re likely to see very
little consistency from Southgate’s men. This is a side who we’re likely to learn an
increasing amount about, as the season goes on.
Newcastle United Football Club

2003/04 56.0 38.0 18.0 52.0 40.0 12.0
2004/05 44.0 28.0 16.0 47.0 57.0 -10.0
2005/06 58.0 38.0 20.0 47.0 42.0 5.0
2006/07 43.0 28.0 15.0 38.0 47.0 -9.0
2007/08 43.0 29.0 14.0 45.0 65.0 -20.0
48.8 32.2 16.6 45.8 50.2 -4.4
2007/08 REVIEW
Another season where Newcastle struggled. The opening day performance at Bolton proved
to be yet another false dawn. King Kev returned and struggled to get his troops to perform,
but a few wins and some very good football late in the season gave Newcastle renewed
hope. That upturn in form coincided with the return to fitness of Mark Viduka. Viduka
linked up play very well and Keegan went 4-3-3 towards the end of last season. That was a
formation that worked well. Defensive woes were once again Newcastle’s biggest problem
and that led to one or two embarrassing and confidence sapping defeats.
TRANSFER MARKET

Jonas (Mallorca) Carr (released)
Danny Guthrie (Liverpool) Rozehnal (Lazio)
Emre (Fenerbahce)
OUTLOOK
The three who have been allowed to leave are all players capable of making the first 11,
but not players essential to it. Rozehnal however was deployed by Keegan in a holding
midfielder role and he did perform well in that position. Jonas who comes in from Mallorca
is likely to be deployed in a wide position, while Guthrie is probably seen as one for the
future, at this stage. A deal to bring Coloccini to Newcastle should be settled before we get
underway and that would be an outstanding piece of business for Newcastle. Coloccini is
solid in the air, a good reader of the game and one of the more underrated defenders
around. There will be a period of adjustment for him, but in terms of quality he is a
significant improvement over anything Newcastle currently possesses. Newcastle is not a
side that you want to analyze solely in terms of quality. This is a club with passionate fans
and the mood amongst the St. James faithful tends to have a profound impact on results.
Page 34
Portsmouth Football Club

2003/04 45.0 34.0 11.0 47.0 54.0 -7.0
2004/05 39.0 28.0 11.0 43.0 59.0 -16.0
2005/06 38.0 22.0 16.0 37.0 62.0 -25.0
2006/07 54.0 38.0 16.0 45.0 42.0 3.0
2007/08 57.0 29.0 28.0 48.0 40.0 8.0
46.6 30.2 16.4 44.0 51.4 -7.4
2007/08 REVIEW
Pompey consolidated the gains they made under Harry in 2006/07 with another upper mid-
table finish. Their season was marked by outstanding performances away from home
(traditionally a weakness), particularly in the first half of the season. Sully Muntari had an
outstanding season, while Benjani and then his replacement Defoe chipped in with
important goals. Distin and Cambell provided the foundation, James had another good year
in goal and Kranjcar caught the eye with several impressive performances. A very good
season for Pompey, which also saw them win the FA Cup.
TRANSFER MARKET

Peter Crouch (Liverpool) Muntari (Inter Millan)
Glenn Little (Reading)
Ben Sahar (Chelsea)
OUTLOOK
The signings will help Pompey put teams away at home. Crouch gives them another option,
and he is a player who has developed quite nicely behind the scenes. How well he combines
with Defoe will be important, but the loan signing of Ben Sahar is also significant – that will
give Pompey the option of bringing on a striker with natural pace late in game. Glenn Little
at his best will add another creative player to the mix. The underlying theme behind the
signings has been to help Pompey push on in terms of the goals for column. Inter came in
for Muntari, and Harry had to let him go. While that still leaves him with quality options in
the shape of Diarra, Diop and Mendes, Muntari was particularly gifted because he was a
box-to-box player with an eye for goal and an eye for a pass. In his 29 appearences last
season, Muntari produced 77 shorts, 34 on target – figures unmatched by the rest of
Pompey’s midfield. All things considered, Pompey have added significant quality in the final
third – but, the departure of Muntari is likely to prove significant next season. Maintaining
their form away from home will be a major challenge. At this stage, another top-half finish
looks likely, but we’re just a bit sceptical on Pompey’s ability to push on with a top-6
finish.
Stoke City Football Club

2007/08 REVIEW
Much like Hull, the numbers a division down hold little significance. Stoke’s promotion
campaign took a lot of people by surprise, but Tony Pullis had been building towards a
proper push for a few seasons. The key in 2007/08 was the ability that Stoke brought to the
table from set piece situations, and the form of Liam Lawrence and Ricardo Fuller. This is a
Page 35
big, physical side with plenty of aerial ability. The significance of Lawrence and Fuller was
exemplified by results without the pair. You would normally expect a Tony Pullis side to be
a lot better organized than the opposition, but the madness of the Championship is brought
to life through this statistic: Stoke conceded 55 goals in their 46 fixture: that’s 10 goals
more than relegated Leicester City!
TRANSFER MARKET

Dave Kiston (Reading) Dominic Matteo (released)
Seyi Olofinjana (Wolves) Russel Hoult (released)
Thomas Sorensen (Aston Villa)
Stoke’s summer transfer activity has been more muted than that of Hull’s. Kiston will
certainly add to what Stoke possess, and he should enjoy some decent service from Liam
Lawrence. Olofinjana is another big central midfielder who has done well for Wolves over
the last couple of seasons: he has the ability to push on from midfield, which is something
Pullis is no doubt looking forward to. Man-for-man this is a squad stuck between the
Championship and the Premiership: for Stoke to survive, they will need their two injury
prone stars – Lawrence and Fuller to remain fit for the majority of the campaign. They will
also need to be a lot better organized at the back.
Sunderland Football Club

2003/04 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2004/05 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2005/06 15.0 7.0 8.0 26.0 69.0 -43.0
2006/07 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2007/08 39.0 30.0 9.0 36.0 59.0 -23.0
27.0 18.5 8.5 31.0 64.0 -33.0
2007/08 REVIEW
Sunderland invested heavily in trying to ensure they stayed up in 2007/08. While Keane’s
transfer market record could do with a bit of improvement, attracting players is always
difficult in your first season up. Objectively, Keane will have to accept Sunderland’s first
season up as a success: with the main aim of being able to stay up achieved. The extent of
their home results bias was striking: a lack of quality at the back, and a lack of ability on
the counter were responsible for Sunderland finding it difficult away from home. At home
however – Sunderland out-battled most opponents and they secured home wins against a
few sides that were qualitatively better than them.
TRANSFER MARKET

Pascal Chimbinda (Tottenham) Ross Wallace (loan to Preston)
Greg Halford (loan to Shffield
Steed Malbranque (Tottenham) Utd.)
Timu Tainio (Tottenham)
El-Hadji Diouf (Bolton)
Page 36
OUTLOOK
There is little doubt that Sunderland have taken strides forward in terms of being able to
attract quality players to the Stadium of Light. All the players who joined were supposedly
impressed with Keane’s vision, and if the manager can get the best out of Chimbonda,
Malbranque and Diouf – Sunderland will be a better side for it. Sunderland also struggled
with injuries to some of their better players last season – a run in the side for the likes of
Kieron Richardson and Carlos Edwards would only help Sunderland. They are still lacking a
striker who can make intelligent runs off the ball – a quality that Malbranque and Diouf
would appreciate. Maintaining their home form from 2007/08 won’t be easy, but I would
expect Sunderland to fair quite well at home, while picking up a few more points against
bottom half opposition away from home. Losing their battling qualities is a massive danger,
and one that Keane and his side will need to avoid if they are to build on their previous
campaign. Sunderland aren’t good enough to win games without the majority of the squad
fighting for every ball.
Tottenham Hotspur Football Club

2003/04 45.0 31.0 14.0 47.0 57.0 -10.0
2004/05 52.0 32.0 20.0 47.0 41.0 6.0
2005/06 65.0 41.0 24.0 53.0 38.0 15.0
2006/07 60.0 39.0 21.0 57.0 54.0 3.0
2007/08 46.0 29.0 17.0 66.0 61.0 5.0
53.6 34.4 19.2 54.0 50.2 3.8
2007/08 REVIEW
A season where Spurs managed to win a trophy with a win in the Carling Cup, but 2007/08
was a disappointing season for the club. After getting off to a poor start, Daniel Levy’s
handling of the Martin Jol sacking was questionable. Ramos helped his transition by winning
Spurs a trophy, and by steadying their form in the league. With little to play for over the
last few games, Spurs form was indifferent. The points tally at the end of the season was
their worst since 2003/04. Yet, Ramos invested in a bit of quality in the January transfer
window – Woodgate and Hutton certainly caught the eye with some good performances in a
Spurs shirt.
TRANSFER MARKET

David Bentley (Blackburn) Robbie Keane (Liverpool)
Giovani Dos Santos (Barcelona) Pascal Chimbonda (Sunderland)
Luka Modric (Dinamo Zagreb) Steed Malbranque (Sunderland)
Heurelho Gomes (PSV) Teemu Tainio (Sunderland)
Paul Robinson (Blackburn)
Anthony Gardner (loan to Hull)
OUTLOOK
In a summer where teams have looked to add the odd player, Spurs have certainly provided
the tabloids with plenty of column inches. They have attracted some of the finest young
talents in Europe – the four big signings will all bring a lot of quality to Spurs. Modric will
Page 37
give them greater game intelligence, Bentley will improved the quality from wide positions,
Dos Santos will drop into positions that defenders don’t like going to and Gomes promises to
be a significant improvement in goal. The departure of Robbie Keane was soul destroying
for a lot of Spurs fans, because his attitude in his time at the club was appreciated. With
several weeks remaining in the window, Berbatov’s future remains unclear – while Spurs
continue to be linked with some quality players including Andrei Arshavin. The ins and outs
will be significant for Tottenham, but I think Ramos will end up with a more balanced squad
than the one he inherited from Martin Jol. The major danger is continued fitness problems
to the likes of King, Woodgate and Gareth Bale, but there are a lot of players desperate to
succeed in this squad and that should serve Spurs well. If Berbatov does leave, the equation
becomes a bit more complicated – and Spurs may be fairly inconsistent through the first
half of the season, once more.
West Bromiwch Albion

2003/04 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2004/05 34.0 23.0 11.0 36.0 61.0 -25.0
2005/06 30.0 20.0 10.0 31.0 58.0 -27.0
2006/07 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2007/08 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
32.0 21.5 10.5 33.5 59.5 -26.0
2007/08 REVIEW
It’s no secret that I rated West Brom a division down. Gera, Phillips, Brunt, Morrison,
Teixeira, Ishamel Miller – these guys were simply a class above the Championship. West
Brom did go through the odd bump, but they finished as deserved winners and it’s fair to
say they were the best football side in the Championship. Mowbray likes to play with
wingers, and likes his side to move the ball around. This is a side that has been constructed
to play attacking football, and in 2007/08 they notched up 88 goals in their 46 fixtures – a
total that was significantly better than either Stoke (69) or Hull (65).
TRANSFER MARKET

Marek Cech (Porto) Kevin Phillips (Birmingham City)
Scott Carson (Liverpool) Zoltan Gera (Fulham)
Giani Zuiverloon (Heerneveen) Martin Albrechtsen (Derby)
OUTLOOK
For all the praise Mowbray earned a division down, this is a big step. To be taking it without
the two players who combine quality and experience is a massive risk. Mowbray would have
preferred to keep both Phillips and Gera, and without them West Brom may lack composure
in the final third. With the style of football Mowbray’s side play – I would expect them to
create chances, but with a real lack of experience in the final third, West Brom currently
look like a side that need an orchestrator. Defensively, West Brom looked quite vulnerable
whenever they lost the ball in the Championship, but they have brought in quality in terms
of Marek Cech, Zuiverloon and Scott Carson. West Brom are likely to be a confidence side in
2008/09, particularly with so many youngsters at the club. A healthy team spirit could help
it all come together for Mowbray, but a season fighting relegation looks far more likely,
unless they can make a couple of decisive moves in the transfer market.
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West Ham United

2003/04 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2004/05 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2005/06 55.0 30.0 25.0 52.0 55.0 -3.0
2006/07 41.0 26.0 15.0 35.0 59.0 -24.0
2007/08 49.0 28.0 21.0 42.0 50.0 -8.0
48.3 28.0 20.3 43.0 54.7 -11.7
2007/08 REVIEW
A peculiar season for West Ham. Away performances early in the season caught the eye, but
for the majority of the season West Ham just lacked a genuine threat in the final third.
Ashton continued to look good when he played, but long-term injuries to several key
member of the squad meant that West Ham never really got to use their best 11. West ham
were always well clear of the relegation zone which marked an improvement on their form
in 2006/07.Few players caught the eye, though Upson and Ashton perhaps enhanced their
reputation a little.
TRANSFER MARKET

Valon Behrami Nolberto Solano (released)
John Pantsil (Fulham)
Bobby Zamora (Fulham)
OUTLOOK
A quiet summer for West Ham, as the realization that they can’t throw outrageous sums
into the transfer market each season sets in. West Ham will be hoping to get more time on
the pitch from the likes of Bellamy, Dyer, Faubert, and those players would add a lot of
pace to a unit which lacked energy in 2007/08. Parker and Ljungberg will also hope for
more time in the first 11. When West Ham get their first 11 in action, they are potentially a
top-8 side. While hunger and desire to do well are variables that are different to gauge,
keeping a track on how much these players look like they want it will be an important guide
to what we can expect from the Hammer’s in 2008/09.
Wigan Athletic Football Club

2003/04 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2004/05 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2005/06 51.0 24.0 27.0 45.0 52.0 -7.0
2006/07 38.0 19.0 19.0 37.0 59.0 -22.0
2007/08 40.0 29.0 11.0 34.0 51.0 -17.0
43.0 24.0 19.0 38.7 54.0 -15.3
2007/08 REVIEW
While the season got off to a worrying start and led to the sacking of Chris Hutchings, Steve
Bruce turned the season into a fairly healthy one. Several players, including Kirkland,
Scharner, Valencia, Palacios and Heskey enhanced their reputations under Bruce. The
Page 39
former-Birmingham City manager transformed Wigan from a side that was leaking goals into
a side that could keep clean sheets at some fairly difficult grounds in a hurry. The manager
and the squad will look at 2007/08 as a building block for greater success going forward.
TRANSFER MARKET

Lee Cattermole (Middlesbrough) Granqvist (FC Groningen)
Daniel De Ridder (Brimingham City) Skoko (released)
Olivier Kapo (Birmingham City) Aghahowa (Keyserispor)
Amr Zaki (Zamalek)
OUTLOOK
Wigan look to have conducted some shrewd business in the transfer window. Lee
Cattermole is a gifted, energetic and passionate midfielder, De Ridder can deliver quality
balls into the box, Kapo can create something out of nothing and Amr Zaki is the wildcard
in the pack. Zak is currently on top of the FIFA rankings for strikers, but it’s fair to say
signing him is a bit of a gamble, as he joins from a club in Cairo. The lack of finishing
quality continues to be a concern, but this Wigan side was very well organized and closed
down teams impressively during the second half of the season. They now look to have a
stronger squad than they did in 2007/08, and they are a side that could potentially surprise
one or two people. That said, keeping the same levels of enthusiasm will be a major hurdle
for Bruce, and minus that Wigan will struggle.
Recommended Bets
While we would have loved to offer one or two bits of advice as we did before Euro 2008
got underway, the fact that there are still 4 weeks remaining in the transfer window and
that current levels of liquidity are extremely low means that we aren’t in a position to do
so. We will continue to allow transfer market movements to influence our ratings, as we
enter the final stages of preparation for the 2008/09 season.
Subscribers to the service will receive an updated version of our Premiership analysis with
recommendations over the coming weeks, and we’ll also take a closer look at the German
Bundesliga and Spanish Primera Division before the end of August. Good luck with your
Premiership betting for 2008/09.
Page 40
INSIDER MR X: Premier League Handicap market

With some bookmakers betting one quarter the odds for 4 places, the Premier League
Handicap market can often throw up some real ‘each way’ value.
Last season members of my Sports Statistician service were on Portsmouth and Everton at
big prices – 15/1 and 16/1 - and whilst our opinions are nowhere near as strong this year as
they were 12 months ago, there’s still a cluster of decent looking bets to be made.
Before we get to the pointy end, let’s take a brief look at some Winning Margin history – the
points differential between the winner and the 19 remaining Premier League outfits.
Winning Margin history - 2005 to 2008

2008/9 2005/6 2005/6 2006/7 2006/7 2007/8 2007/8
Line-Up Points Margin Points Margin Points Margin
Man Utd 83 -8 89 0 87 0
Chelsea 91 0 83 -6 85 -2
Arsenal 67 -24 68 -21 83 -4
Liverpool 82 -9 68 -21 76 -11
Everton 50 -41 58 -31 65 -22
Aston Villa 42 -49 50 -39 60 -27
Blackburn 63 -28 52 -37 58 -29
Portsmouth 38 -53 54 -35 57 -30
Man City 43 -48 42 -47 55 -32
West Ham 55 -36 41 -48 49 -38
Tottenham 65 -26 60 -29 46 -41
Newcastle 58 -33 43 -46 43 -44
Middlesbrough 45 -46 46 -43 42 -45
Wigan 51 -40 38 -51 40 -47
Sunderland 15 -76 N/A N/A 39 -48
Bolton 56 -35 56 -50 37 -50
Fulham 48 -43 39 -50 36 -51
West Brom 30 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Stoke N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hull N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Birmingham 34 -57 N/A N/A 35 -52
Charlton 47 -44 34 -55 N/A N/A
Sheff Utd N/A N/A 38 -51 N/A N/A
Watford N/A N/A 28 -61 N/A N/A
Reading N/A N/A 55 -34 36 -51
Derby N/A N/A N/A N/A 11 -76
Total 1063 757 1042 755 1040 700
As you can see, the notion that the gap between the ‘Big Four’ and the field is widening
over time is - for the most part – a myth. Since the 2005/6 season a number of teams have
closed the gap – some of which have almost halved the disparity between themselves and
the Premier League winner.
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Let’s take a look at those four teams and the ground they’ve made up in the last three
seasons, starting with Everton.
Everton – Closed the gap from 41 pts to 22 pts…
Last season, Everton registered their 2nd consecutive improvement in the winning margins
department – they’ve closed the gap from 41 points to 22 points in just three seasons. The
bookmakers expect a drop off this season though - they’re giving the UEFA Cup chasing
Toffee’s a 26- point start and that looks about right.
Aston Villa – Closed the gap from 49 pts to 27 pts…
Aston Villa endured a barren period under some poor managerial choices, however under
O’Neill the Villans have knocked off a massive 22 point deficit, finishing just 27 points
behind the Premier League winner last season. We were queuing up for some 32 or 30 but
alas the bookies are having none of it – they offer a ‘best priced’ 26-point start and that’s a
few points adrift of where we wanted to be.
Portsmouth – Closed the gap from 49 pts to 27 pts…
Portsmouth were once a seasonal contender for relegation – their almost constant battle
for survival having an air of a inevitability about it. But after the arrival of Alexandre
Gaydamak as owner, Pompey have recorded a brace of finishes in the top half of the table
and further improvement – albeit small - is expected in 2008/9. A 30-point start is just big
enough to take…
Man City – Closed the gap from 48 pts to 32 pts…
Another moneybags at the helm here and another case of immediate improvement – 16
points worth in just three seasons is some jump - and once again, we’re expecting another,
smaller leap north this season too. The bookmakers are ahead of the game again though –
they’ve lumbered Man City with a best priced 29-point start which falls bang on our mark.
Barring Portsmouth, the bookmakers seem to have a good grip on the Premier
League’s quartet of improvers – they’re asking for yet more improvement to land a bet in
the Handicap market and that’s something that – for punters – is an uncomfortable position.
Stagnant waters…
Of the remainder, Wigan (bookies asking for 4-pts+ improvement on last season), West Ham
(level with last season), Bolton (6-pt improvement on last season), Middlesbrough (7-pts
improvement on last season) and Sunderland (7-pt improvement on last season) all have a
stagnant look about their 2008/9 ‘Premier League Points’ chances, and are no value at the
current handicaps.
The new boys…
The ‘widening’ gap we were talking about earlier is alive and well so far as the league’s
newcomers are concerned – looking ahead to the 2008/9 season, I don’t think that any one
of West Brom, Stoke or Hull are receiving a big enough handicap to challenge for the lead
and are all easily dismissed.
Potential improvers…
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How many seasons have Newcastle fallen into this category? The last three for sure,
however even the most cynical of analysts would have to conclude that the Geordies are
highly likely to improve on their 43 points of last season. The bookmakers are expecting a
massive improvement though - a full 12 pts on last season’s losing margin – and taking into
account the doubts surrounding their management, that’s far too much to be giving up.
Tottenham are another that – for the last three seasons – have been pushed into the
‘improvers’ pile. As things currently stand, the positive for Tottenham’s cause is that they
at last have a manager that is capable of coercing his troops closer to the elite four teams
in English football. The negatives are that their squad still has that ‘half-built’ look about it
(and that look is getting worse not better).
The gap between Spurs and the 2007/8 champions was a whopping 41 points last season –
the best handicap currently available with the bookmakers is not far away from half that
total. We’d want at least 25-pts (best margin for three seasons) but we’re not going to get
that – so no bet.
Last but not least we have Fulham who under Roy Hodgson look slightly more stable than
they did under Chris Coleman. The gap between themselves and the 2007/8 champions was
a whopping 51 points last term - the bookmakers sniff some kind of Fulham revival this
season though and give them just a 46-point start.
The Cottagers would need to bag around a 40 point haul in 2008/9 if they are to get close
to being settled the Handicap winners and that’s a distinct possibility – if they continue to
improve under their new coach that is…
The Big Four…
The last few seasons have seen the Premier League’s elite priced out of the Handicap race,
however that’s not the case this season, with the total of the handicaps when added
together falling well below 600 (the finishing totals of 2007/8 added up to exactly 700).
Many industry professionals are predicting a Man Utd points total of far less than their 87 of
last season – I’d pretty much agree with that, and have chalked them up with an 83 point
haul. The ‘scratch’ runner often has it all to do, and that’s the case again in 2008/9. A mid-
table handicap finish beckons.
It’s all change down at Chelsea, but for the better? … Aesthetically, most probably, but
that doesn’t mean they’re going to become a points machine overnight. The Champions
League hunting Blues with their creative coach face experimental patches during the
coming months, and with that in mind a 2-pt handicap isn’t enough to drag me in.
Kop some of Liverpool with a 10-point start…
Liverpool are the perennial bridesmaids in the title race these days, and incredibly, have
not finished champions since 1989-90. That’s a major under achievement from such a
prominent club, and they have a big task ahead to overturn the lead of the three clubs that
finished in front of them last year.
But however they fare in the race for the title – Liverpool have to be given every
consideration when it comes to winning the bookies’ Premier League Handicap.
They finished in fourth place in the Premier League table, 11 points behind Man United last
year, but their match performance stats in the ‘shots on target’, ‘corners’ and ‘shooting
accuracy’ departments often matched those of the champions. The crucial difference was
Page 43
Liverpool’s inability to close out matches at Anfield in the same ruthless fashion that United
did at Old Trafford.
Both sides were only beaten once at home – but United won 17 games and drew 1, while
Liverpool won 12 games and drew 6. Those 10 points ‘dropped’ at home would have put
Liverpool right into title contention.
If Liverpool can improve in that crucial area they can be a force to be reckoned with. And
there is every chance that they can improve, with terrier-like striker Robbie Keane newly
arrived from Spurs to give them extra attacking punch.
The bookmakers will give you Liverpool with a 10-point start to win the Premier League
Handicap – and that looks a more than fair offer for a class side with so much going for
them.
It’s Gunner be close with Arsenal +8…
At one time in mid-season it looked as though Arsenal could snatch the title from under
Man United’s nose – but in the end they finished a close third, beaten by just 4 points.
Their failure to land the title was nothing to do with lack of talent though, there was a
period in mid-season when Arsenal’s match statistics were every bit as good (and
sometimes better) than United’s – the problem was a ‘fade’ in form as the season went into
its final stretch – and that was mostly due to injury problems.
But even with that end-of-season swoon included in the stats, the Gunners clocked some
eye-catching figures. They scored more goals away from home than United (37 to 33) they
earned more points away from home than United (36 to 35) and were one of only two teams
to remain unbeaten at home throughout the entire season (the other was Chelsea).
Recommended Bets
Arsenal to win the Premier League with +8 points
15/1 at the time of advice with Extrabet
14/1 current best price with Extrabet
Given that Arsenal were a touch unfortunate with injuries in 2007-08, and were still only
beaten to the title by 4 points – the bookmakers’ handicap offer of an 8-point start looks
well worth taking.
season progresses.
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INSIDER MR X: Premier League without the Big 4

The Premiership ‘Without the Big 4’ market has a really appealing look to it this season,
and I reckon I’ve found 3 solid bets against the perennial favourite for this ‘event,’ Spurs.
For once Tottenham aren’t heading the lists at a stupidly short price – in fact they’re the
biggest price they have been for years, and ironically they’re at their most appealing now
they have themselves a proper manager.
However odds of 5/2 implies a percentage chance of 28.57% and it’s hard to burden them
with a higher expectation – not when you consider the question marks surrounding a few of
their key squad positions.
Add to that Tottenham’s infatuation with Cups and you have yourselves a tight squad that
look likely to suffer another fixture jam come February – March, and if a Champions League
place isn’t on the table, we could well see Spurs putting in a performance similar to that of
2007/8 where the Lillywhites virtually downed tools for those vital end of season matches.
In Ramos Spurs have themselves a top class manager, however it was surprising to see him
quoted as “struggling to keep up the motivation” at the end of last term – this was his first
season in charge and with only a few games under his belt, you would have thought that –
regardless of league position – the players were playing for their place in the 2008/9 squad
In short, Spurs are the right favourite, but at 5/2 they make no appeal
Let’s take a look at another team that acquired themselves a ‘proper manager’ a couple of
years ago, and that’s Aston Villa
Smash and grab some of the 5/1 about the Villans…

After being mismanaged for years and years - by the likes of David O’Leary, Graham Taylor
and John Gregory – Villans Chairman ‘Deadly’ Doug Ellis at last hired a man who would be
able to put Villa back on track.
But unlike Ramos, he has been in the job long enough to make a difference.
After a barren period of 12 miserable years, Villa are at last looking like a side capable of
registering a solid season, and at 5/1 in the ‘Without the Big 4’ market, they look well
worth our interest.
Last season Villa finished in 6th place after what was overall, an excellent achievement for
manager Martin O’Neill after just 22 months in the Villa Park hot seat.
Let’s take a look at their numbers, starting with how they performed in 5 key areas at
home…
Aston Villa – Home Performance 2007/8

Shots On Shots Off % SPG Possession Goals
Rating Rating Accuracy Rating Rating Rating
F A F A F A F A F A F A
Period 1 4.5 6.5 7.8 7.0 36.7% 48.1% 7.0 18.0 49.3 50.8 1.8 0.8
Period 2 4.5 7.5 3.8 6.8 54.5% 52.6% 5.5 14.3 42.0 58.0 1.5 1.0
Period 3 5.7 6.0 4.7 6.3 54.8% 48.6% 7.8 9.3 48.0 52.0 1.3 1.3
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Period 4 6.0 5.3 6.3 4.8 49.0% 52.5% 9.8 6.7 54.5 45.5 1.3 1.5
Period 5 5.3 5.3 5.8 4.0 47.8% 57.1% 7.4 6.2 52.5 47.5 1.5 1.5
Period 6 5.8 4.0 5.8 3.3 50.0% 55.2% 4.6 7.3 52.8 47.3 2.5 1.0
Period 7 4.7 2.7 4.3 6.3 51.9% 29.6% 5.4 9.0 52.3 47.7 1.7 1.0
Period 8 5.3 3.5 4.8 6.3 52.5% 35.9% 4.0 13.0 54.5 45.5 2.5 0.8
Period 9 9.7 6.0 5.3 4.3 64.4% 58.1% 5.0 10.3 53.0 47.0 3.0 1.0
The ratings immediately identify Villa’s problems – put simply, their defence is
underperforming – they’re allowing too much quality business to be aimed in their
direction, ultimately selling goals to their opponents too cheaply.
This SPG (shots Per Goal) ‘against’ stat is a very interesting one, and the fact that the 4
periods which saw Villa holding some kind of Winter Sale down at Villa Park directly
correlate to their worst performance in the goals department is conclusive.
But since the turn into the 2008 straight, O’Neill made good strides in that department.
From the end of Period 5, Aston Villa reduced their goals conceded rating down to a goal or
less through to Period 9 – and it’s worth pointing out that Villa were far from ‘off’ during
their final dead rubbers of the 2007/8 season
Now for a look at Villa’s away business last season – and it’s this vital category of a team’s
game that makes Villa a stand out team to follow for the coming 2008/9 season…
Aston Villa – Away Performance 2007/8

Period 1 3.5 5.0 7.5 4.0 31.8% 55.6% N/A 18.0 47.5 52.5 0.0 0.5
Period 2 4.0 8.7 4.7 6.0 46.2% 59.1% 5.2 7.3 44.3 55.7 1.7 2.0
Period 3 6.2 8.8 3.0 6.4 67.4% 57.9% 3.3 12.7 46.0 54.0 2.8 1.2
Period 4 6.7 7.3 3.2 4.3 67.8% 62.9% 3.7 10.0 49.3 50.7 2.7 1.2
Period 5 5.5 6.3 2.5 4.5 68.8% 58.1% 3.6 5.4 51.0 49.0 2.3 2.0
Period 6 6.7 7.0 4.7 5.3 58.8% 56.8% 6.8 7.4 54.3 45.7 1.7 1.7
Period 7 7.4 6.6 5.4 6.0 57.8% 52.4% 16.0 6.3 50.8 49.2 0.8 2.0
Period 8 7.0 6.2 4.2 6.6 62.5% 48.4% 6.2 7.1 50.0 50.0 1.8 1.8
Period 9 7.7 6.7 4.0 5.7 65.7% 54.1% 3.5 9.3 53.0 47.0 3.3 1.3
Barring that very last column – the Goals against column – these figures are top class…
An excellent level of shot production is strengthened by one of the best accuracy
performances of the season – maintaining around a 60% accuracy rate for near on the entire
season is some achievement.
The Villans are also performing excellently in the possession category too, with a final
flurry of 50+ ‘percenters’ illustrating just how well O’Neill has his side competing away
from the safety of home.
The consistently impressive SPG rating is excellent, and highlights a club that’s clearly
potent in attack – to find a similar performance you’d have to trawl the waters of the Top 4
themselves.
And finally, their goals ‘for’ ratings, which are about as impressive as you’ll find outside of
the elite 4 – Villa were one of only two teams that managed to record a positive goal
Page 46
difference away from home last season, and as you can see, this feat was achieved thanks
to a series of consistent ‘road goal’ performances.
After just 2 full seasons in the job, O’Neill has transformed Villa from a stale club that
finished the 2005/6 season in 16th place with a goals record of 42-55 (20-20 home, 22-35
away) into a side that finished the 2007/8 season in 6th place with a mightily impressive 71-
51 goals record (34-22 home, 37-29 away.)
With further improvement to be expected – and Randy Lerner’s full backing – O’Neill’s Villa
looks a cracking each way bet at the 5/1 that’s currently available with and we’ll invest 1
½ pts each way.
Now for another team that we’re expecting to reap benefits from the appointment of a new
manager – Man City
Thai up some funds on City at 9/1…

Since former Thailand Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra took control at the City of
Manchester Stadium, there has been little in the way of dull moments.
After sacking Stuart Pearce – and replacing him with probably the most overrated manager
in footballing history Sven-Goran Eriksson – Shinawatra has since wielded the axe again,
replacing last years model with the no nonsense Mark Hughes.
That’s a better move by the Thai who now has a manager that can at least install some kind
of bite into a team that for long periods last season, looked toothless.
The Sky Blues finished down the foot of the ‘Bookings Points’ table too – expect a sharp rise
up the Bookings Ladder this season.
But there were some excellent facets to Man City’s game and to pinpoint these, let’s take a
close look at the bones of their home performance table…
Man City – Home Performance 2007/8

Period 1 7.0 4.8 3.8 6.0 65.1% 44.2% 7.2 43.0 55.3 44.8 1.5 0.3
Period 2 9.3 7.3 5.3 6.0 63.8% 54.7% 7.3 26.5 53.3 46.8 2.0 0.5
Period 3 7.3 6.0 5.3 4.8 58.0% 55.8% 7.1 21.5 55.0 45.0 1.8 0.5
Period 4 5.6 4.8 3.2 4.8 63.6% 50.0% 4.9 9.6 56.0 44.0 1.8 1.0
Period 5 5.5 6.0 3.3 5.5 62.9% 52.2% 5.0 9.2 52.3 47.8 1.8 1.3
Period 6 6.7 7.3 5.3 5.3 55.6% 57.9% 18.0 6.3 49.3 50.7 0.7 2.0
Period 7 7.0 7.3 5.5 4.5 56.0% 61.7% 16.7 7.8 47.8 52.3 0.8 1.5
Period 8 7.2 7.2 5.8 4.8 55.4% 60.0% 9.3 8.6 46.4 53.6 1.4 1.4
Period 9 7.3 8.0 6.0 5.3 55.0% 60.0% 8.0 6.7 48.0 52.0 1.7 2.0
Man City got away to a flyer last term – playing fantastic football during the opening 3
periods of the 2007/8 season… Top 4 class, of that there’s no doubt
But it didn’t take long for Sven to work his magic and after a poor start to 2008 (Spanning
periods 6 & 7) City were left little to play for – a factor that clearly seeps through into their
end of season ratings.
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It’s hard not to be impressed with their start to last season though – look at the highs in all
of the above 6 departments – in particular their top class Goals and SPG ‘for’ and ‘against’
ratings, built on a foundation of classy shot production and possession.
Let’s now check how Man City performed on the road…
Man City – Away Performance 2007/8

Period 1 4.3 7.8 5.8 5.8 42.5% 57.4% 8.0 10.8 48.3 51.8 1.3 1.3
Period 2 4.0 9.3 4.3 5.7 48.0% 62.2% 8.3 4.5 45.0 55.0 1.0 3.3
Period 3 4.5 10.5 4.0 7.5 52.9% 58.3% N/A 6.0 40.0 60.0 0.0 3.0
Period 4 2.8 7.5 4.0 4.0 40.7% 65.2% 9.0 11.5 48.5 51.5 0.8 1.0
Period 5 3.2 6.5 4.2 4.2 43.2% 60.9% 7.3 10.7 48.5 51.5 1.0 1.0
Period 6 5.0 7.5 4.0 6.8 55.6% 52.6% 7.2 19.0 47.5 52.5 1.3 0.8
Period 7 5.0 7.8 4.0 7.0 55.6% 52.5% 12.0 9.8 52.5 47.5 0.8 1.5
Period 8 4.5 7.3 4.0 5.8 52.9% 55.8% 11.3 8.7 51.5 48.5 0.8 1.5
Period 9 3.7 15.0 3.7 6.7 50.0% 69.2% 7.3 6.5 44.7 55.3 1.0 3.3
The ability to perform away from home is where the west will be won as far as the ‘Without
Top 4’ winner is concerned, and I think Mark Hughes can prise out enough points to make
that challenge a strong one.
As you can clearly see, Man City performed okay in the attack department – nothing out of
this world, but good enough to win enough matches to keep them in the Top 8 of the
Premiership.
Hughes can be expected to do get City defending to a higher level from the off in 2008/9 –
not just on the road but at home too – and as far as table position is concerned, an
improvement on their 9th place finish of last season looks well within the Welshman’s reach.
With a decent budget available to him, an improved level of fitness (City conceded 15 goals
after the 75th minute last season) and an improved defensive display, Man City look a great
each way wager at the 9/1+ that’s available.
Finally a team that had a fabulous season in 2007/8 – rounded off with a stylish FA Cup
win…
Harry’s Pompey look a nap at 11/1…

Harry Redknapp has made a cracking start to his second spell down at Fratton Park. In just
2 ½ years he has managed to turn a team scraping to avoid relegation into an outfit that
has registered back-to-back finishes inside the top half of the table.
A club best finish in 2006/7 (ninth place) was bettered by a spot in 2007/8 and given that
Pompey completely threw in the towel come the end of last season with their Cup Final
appearance in sight, it’s fair to say that they could have further improved on that position
if they were chasing a big target.
Here are my ratings for Pompey’s 2007/8 Home season…
Portsmouth – Home Performance 2007/8
Page 48

Period 1 7.8 7.0 5.3 6.3 59.6% 52.8% 4.7 8.8 52.5 47.5 2.8 1.5
Period 2 7.3 5.3 7.3 6.3 50.0% 45.7% 6.3 8.8 55.0 45.0 2.3 1.3
Period 3 7.5 4.0 7.5 6.0 50.0% 40.0% N/A N/A 52.0 48.0 0.0 0.0
Period 4 7.6 5.0 7.6 5.2 50.0% 49.0% N/A 25.5 52.2 47.8 0.0 0.4
Period 5 6.8 5.0 8.0 4.8 45.9% 51.0% 24.7 16.3 52.8 47.2 0.6 0.6
Period 6 8.0 6.3 9.3 4.7 46.2% 57.6% 10.4 16.5 55.0 45.0 1.7 0.7
Period 7 7.4 7.6 7.0 5.4 51.4% 58.5% 7.2 21.7 52.2 47.8 2.0 0.6
Period 8 7.0 7.6 7.0 5.6 50.0% 57.6% 8.8 22.0 50.4 49.6 1.6 0.6
Period 9 7.7 6.0 8.3 5.0 47.9% 54.5% N/A 16.5 49.0 51.0 0.0 0.7
Sometimes, football just defies what’s happening behind the scenes – and as far as Periods
3, 4 and 5 are concerned it happened to Portsmouth last season.
Pompey shrunk down from a formidable free-flowing free-scoring unit to a Premier League
minnow virtually overnight, and no matter how long you stare at their engine room
statistics, you won’t find the answer.
Neither Redknapp nor his white and blue army were doing anything different in the creation
department during this period – a fact we can conclusively prove by the above table – but
despite that, they couldn’t hit the back of the net.
Come Period 6 and it was business as usual again – back with a whopping 1.7 goals ‘for’ –
which they subsequently backed up with a tasty 2.0 in P7 and a wonderful 1.6 in P8
We’ll ignore their figures posted in P9 – with nothing to play for it was a lethargic Pompey
for most if not all of the end of season encounters.
When you consider that Pompey only missed out on a 5th placed finish by 9 points, it
doesn’t take a genius to work out where they would have finished with just a slight
improvement to their performance during Periods 3, 4 & 5 - not to mention the 8 points
they ‘gave away’ by just going through the motions in their last 3 home matches.
And that ‘non-trying’ finale to 2007/8 really hits home in their away stats table – just look
at how poorly they performed during the last 3 periods of 2007/8…
Portsmouth – Away Performance 2007/8

Period 1 6.8 5.8 7.8 6.5 46.6% 46.9% 14.5 8.2 46.0 54.0 1.0 1.5
Period 2 8.3 5.3 6.0 4.5 57.9% 53.8% 9.5 13.0 47.5 52.5 1.5 0.8
Period 3 7.8 5.0 5.8 4.5 57.4% 52.6% 5.4 38.0 52.5 47.5 2.5 0.3
Period 4 6.5 5.8 5.0 5.8 56.5% 50.0% 4.6 7.7 49.5 50.5 2.5 1.5
Period 5 6.4 7.4 3.8 7.4 62.7% 50.0% 8.5 8.2 49.6 50.4 1.2 1.8
Period 6 6.3 8.5 3.0 7.8 67.6% 52.3% 12.3 16.3 48.3 51.8 0.8 1.0
Period 7 4.3 7.7 2.3 8.7 65.0% 46.9% 10.0 9.8 45.7 54.3 0.7 1.7
Period 8 6.0 7.8 4.8 6.3 55.8% 55.4% 14.3 7.0 47.5 52.5 0.8 2.0
Period 9 9.3 9.7 7.7 4.7 54.9% 67.4% 25.5 8.6 48.3 51.7 0.7 1.7
Page 49
Since the start of March 2008, Portsmouth lost 4 of their 5 away matches with their only
win a ‘3 pointer’ over Harry’s old club West Ham. Not one of these losses – against Boro,
Everton, Man City and Tottenham – saw Portsmouth register anywhere near a decent effort,
and as you can see by the above table, their goals ratings during Periods 7, 8 & 9 scream
disinterest.
Had they given the full season their very best efforts, they would have pushed Everton a
good deal harder than they did – they wouldn’t have been so keen to donate them 3pts in
their end of season fixture for starters – and given their undoubted potential, there’s no
reason why the canny Redknapp can’t continue to improve this Pompey side.
11/1 and 10/1 looks great Each Way value
Recommended Bets
Aston Villa to win the Premiership ‘W/O The Big Four’ 5/1-9/2 Each Way.
5/1 currently across the board
Man City to win the Premiership ‘W/O The Big Four’ 9/1-8/1 Each Way.
7/1 current best price with Bet365, Blue Square & 888 Sport
Portsmouth to win the Premiership ‘W/O The Big Four’ 11/1-10/1 Each
Way.
15/2 current best price with Sporting Bet
season progresses.
Page 50
SECTION 2.
English Championship &

Football League
Page 51
THE ORACLE: Championship Preview

By far the toughest league in the country to predict. Pretty much everyone is capable of
beating everyone else on their day and last years promoted trio of WBA, Stoke and Hull lost
thirty three games between them. Birmingham are the favourites after managing to keep
hold of most of their best players such as Maik Taylor, Larsson and McFadden. They have
added to their forwards in the shape of Kevin Phillips and Marcus Bent as well as bringing in
Lee Carsley from Everton whose experience should prove invaluable. It might
take a bit of time to adjust to the Championship but come the end of the season they
should be there or thereabouts.
Queens Park Rangers are a side I tipped towards the end of last season to do well this
year. They have wealthy owners and have started making some decent signings. The return
of crowd favourite Lee Cook will be a popular move and Kaspars Gorkss, Blackpool's best
player last year, is another decent signing. A sign of the direction the club is heading in is
the loan signing of Real Madrid starlet Daniel Parejo who is very highly rated.
However, Parejo will take some getting used to the physical nature of English football and I
will be interested to see how he copes. QPR have also retained talented players from last
season such as Akos Buzsaky and Patrick Agyemang and added a couple of Italians on loan
too. More players are likely to arrive before the transfer window shuts but I think it could
take some time for the team to gel together. There are question marks about Iain
Dowie's appointment as manager and it is even rumoured that should he get Rangers
promoted, he will be immediately sacked in favour of a big name manager for the
Premiership. QPR should have every chance of being promoted but they are too short at 8/1
to back for the title in such a competitive league.
In the last ten years only one in five teams relegated from the Premiership have
bounced straight back up at the first attempt. They are always amongst the favourites in
the betting but it is quite a shock adjusting to life in the Championship. Holding on to your
main players always proves to be the toughest task but it is one Reading seem to be
succeeding at.
Dave Kitson has stayed in the Premiership, moving to Stoke, whilst Nicky Shorey is
reportedly on the verge of joining Portsmouth. Apart from that though, most of
the squad remains intact. Harper, Doyle and Lita are still there as is Stephen Hunt who is
joined by his brother Noel after signing from Dundee Utd. Celtic were supposedly looking at
signing Noel before Reading signed him and he should do well in the Championship.
In Steve Coppell Reading have a manager who has won the Championship before, breaking
records in the process, so he will be well aware of what is expected.
Derby on the other hand have been completely rebuilt under Paul Jewell and the new team
will again need time to gel. A strike force of Hulse and Ellington should do well at this level
and a midfield of Pearson, Savage, Commons and Giles Barnes also has a lot of potential. It
might take them a while to get going but Derby should be in the hunt for a play off
place come May.
Other contenders for promotion include Sheffield Utd, Wolves, Crystal Palace and
Ipswich. Sheffield Utd finished the season in fine form winning eight of their last twelve
games and their forwards Beattie, Sharpe and Henderson will again be a threat. Wolves
have a very young squad that may lack the experience necessary to challenge outright, but
Page 52
with last years top scorer Ebanks-Blake in the side as well as Michael Kightly they will be
quietly confident. Crystal Palace also have a very young squad but they are an extremely
talented bunch, in particular Victor Moses and Sean Scannell. However, they lost John
Bostock on the cheap and Ben Watson also looks like leaving for a cut price
fee. Another play off place may not be beyond them with Warnock in charge from day one
this time round.
Ipswich are another team with aspirations of promotion and Boss Jim Magilton is highly
respected. They have been linked with the likes of Kevin Nugent and Ivan Campo in recent
weeks and have already brought Richard Wright back to Portman road and bolstered their
forward line with Kevin Lisbie. They could be set for a decent season.
Last seasons surprise package Bristol City are going to struggle to replicate their
achievements this year.
They won a lot of games by narrow margins last year but should be boosted by the signing
of Nicky Maynard from Crewe. Maynard missed a lot of last season with a serious injury but
quickly made up for lost time in the second half of the season. It will be interesting
to see if he can score goals at a higher level. I don't think Charlton are going to be a factor
this season as they have lost quite a few players and brought very few in, finances appear
to be tight.
Likewise with Watford who finished the season awfully, winning just once in fourteen
matches before being hammered 6-1 on aggregate by Hull in the play offs.
Newly promoted Notts Forest and Swansea could both do well and I think they will stay
up comfortably. Forest have brought in strikers Andy Cole and Robert Earnshaw to help
Nathan Tyson and Earnshaw in particular could prove a fantastic signing. The championship
is Earnshaw's level and he managed twenty seven goals in forty one starts for Norwich as
well as eighty five in one hundred and forty one starts for Cardiff. A poor
spell in a poor Derby side in which he wasn't given much of a chance shouldn't cloud your
judgement.
At the other end of the table the main candidates for relegation are Southampton,
Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley and Blackpool. Southampton are allegedly losing £1million
a month and have trimmed their squad considerably. Administration and a points
deduction is a real possibility making 5/1 a tempting price to back the saints for the drop.
The board made a strange decision to bring in unheard of Jan Poortvliet and Mark Wotte
from Holland. Wotte has admitted that it could take "months" for players to learn a new
style of play. Any significant injury problems could see Southampton struggle badly and it is
crucial that they keep Stern John fit. Sheffield Wednesday finished just three points from
safety last season and have brought in James O'Connor from Burnley and Jimmy Smith from
Chelsea. Whilst not bad signings, Wednesday need to strengthen a lot more if they are to
stay in the division. Barnsley also finished just three points above safety but did enjoy an
exciting cup run last season. Iain Hume has been brought in from Leicester but further
reinforcements are also needed.
Blackpool look to be facing another hard season after losing three of their best players
last year. Kaspars Gorkss, Wes Hoolahan and Kiegan Parker have all departed making them
favourites for the drop. Simon Grayson has replaced them with several new signings such as
Jermaine Wright, Rehmann and Nardiello from QPR and Adam Hamill on loan from Liverpool
but whether the new boys can give them the required quality is debatable.
Page 53

It is very difficult to recommend an outright bet in such a tight league. Birmingham are
rightly favourites but are too short for my liking. There are several other contenders and it
really is a bit of a lottery. I am recommending two bets in the Championship, Southampton
to be relegated and Earnshaw as an each way bet for top scorer. Southampton have a much
reduced playing pool and a new dutch management team which could prove a real gamble.
Their perilous financial condition also means that a points deduction at some point in the
season could also be a factor.
Earnshaw on the other hand has scored goals at this level before. With promising Liverpool
youngster Paul Anderson on a season long loan at Forest, he could well provide plenty of
ammunition for Earnshaw.
1pt Southampton to be relegated

9/2 at the time of advice with Bet365 and Coral
9/2 current best price with Coral & William Hill
1/4pt each way Earnshaw to be top goalscorer

25/1 at the time of advice with Ladbrokes & Coral
25/1 current best price with Coral
season progresses.
Page 54
THE ORACLE: League One Preview

League one was dominated by Swansea last season but I don't think there is anyone at
that level this time around. Leeds are strong favourites but too short to back at 3/1. They
have a promising young Boss in Gary McAllister and a twenty goal a season striker in
Jermaine Beckford. Luciano Becchio has also joined after scoring twenty four goals in the
Spanish second division last season. He is only twenty four but has had spells at Barcelona,
Mallorca and Boca juniors already, so it will be interesting to see what impact he has. Andy
Robinson has opted to stay in League one to join Leeds rather than play Championship
football with Swansea. Robinson was an important part of Swansea's promotion push last
season and is a fantastic signing for Leeds. Johnny Howson, David Prutton and Jonathan
Douglas are all useful players at this level too and it's hard to see Leeds not being there or
thereabouts come May.
Relegated Leicester are second favourites for the title but there's no way I could back
them at 5/1. Nigel Pearson is incredibly the sixth manager under Milan Mandaric in just
eighteen months, a fact that goes a long way in explaining how Leicester ended up
in League One. Leicester have retained plenty of decent players and added Llyod Dyer from
Mk Dons but there will be a period of adjustment and I am not convinced Nigel Pearson is
the best person for the job. They have the players to bounce straight back but
it wont be as easy as the odds suggest.
Peterborough and Mk dons ran away with league two last season but I am a little
surprised they are so short in the betting, at 10/1 and 14/1 respectively. Peterborough
have done well to hang on to Aaron Mclean but apart form that they have only added
Wycombe's Sergio Torres. New signings may be on the way before the transfer window
closes but at the moment I don't think they are good enough to challenge for the league. Mk
Dons have lost Paul Ince and whilst Roberto Di Matteo is a high profile replacement, he is
an unproven manager. Captain Keith Andrews is also subject to interest from bigger clubs
and it would be a big blow if they lost him. Like Peterborough Mk Dons have added very
little to the squad since winning promotion and it is a big ask for the same squad to
challenge again at a higher level.
Huddersfield have been the subject of an ante post gamble in recent weeks after adding
some talented players to their squad. Kiegan Parker from Blackpool, Andy Butler from
Scunthorpe and Gary Roberts from Ipswich were all playing Championship football last
season and should improve a team that wasn't far off last season. Cut priced season tickets
have resulted in sales going past the 15,000 mark, so they should have considerable home
advantage too. 16/1 is still available and better value than the teams mentioned above.
Carlisle are another side who could be a touch of value at 18/1 with Boylesports. The
Cumbrians finished level on points with Doncaster and just two points behind Nottingham
forest so it is a little surprising that they are so big. However, the sale of highly rated
goalkeeper Kieran Westwood to Coventry and striker Joe Garner to Nottingham Forest has
weakened the squad. Michael Bridges has been brought back to the club on loan and if he
can rediscover the form he showed in a previous spell at the club then Garner's loss may not
be so sore. Top scorer Danny Graham remains at the club too and his fifteen goals was the
third best tally in the league last season. It is strange therefore that you can back him at
33/1 each way with Skybet to repeat the feat. Graham is only twenty three and still
improving after coming through Middlesbrough's youth system. If Leeds' Jermaine Beckford
were to be sold in January his chances would be even better. Carlisle had the best home
Page 55
record in the division last season, but will have to improve on their away form which
resulted in just six away wins last year.
Of the remaining challengers, Colchester and Brighton have the best chances of
promotion but probably through the play offs. Colchester have kept most of their squad
intact and in Dean Hammond, Johnnie Jackson and Mark Yeats, have players well capable of
performing at this level. Steven Gillespie has also been signed from Cheltenham and should
be a decent replacement for the departed Kevin Lisbie. Brighton have a good manager in
Micky Adams and he has added several decent players in Hawkins, Virgo (who was a big hit
at the club first time around) and Livermore to the squad. They should help the club build
on a promising finish to last season. The betting suggest neither have strengthened from
last season.
At the bottom of the table, Cheltenham, Hereford, Stockport, Yeovil, Crewe and Walsall
are most at risk of relegation. Crewe are possibly best equipped to avoid the drop despite
losing star player Nicky Maynard to Bristol City. The £2million plus fee will provide funds to
strengthen other areas and Anthony Eldings arrival from Leeds should soften the blow.
Aldershot's Joel Grant is another decent signing and if they can bring in two or three players
with the Maynard money then they might be ok. Yeovil reached the play offs two seasons
ago but paid for it by attracting interest to their best players. An Eighteenth place finish
just four points above the drop was the result last year. Yeovil managed just thirty six goals
in forty six games last year which was the lowest in the division by a long way.
Goalkeeper Steve Mildenhall has since departed which is also a major blow. Had it not
been for points deductions for Luton and Bournemouth, Yeovil would have gone down
last year and they may not be able to avoid that fate this time around.
Promoted Stockport have lost leading scorer Liam Dickinson to Derby and have brought in
Peter Thompson from Lingfield as his replacement. Thompson will need to hit the ground
running if he is to score the goals to keep them up. They also have a promising talent in
Tommy Rowe who is tipped for the Premiership. Walsall fans may be regretting not giving
Richard Money their backing last season as they look set to struggle this year. Assistant
Jimmy Mullen has taken over but he does not have the best pedigree and Walsall have very
little money to spend. Michael Ricketts has been brought back to the club to solve a
goalscoring problem, but Ricketts best days are behind him and things look grim for a very
average looking Walsall side.
Cheltenham are favourites in the betting to be relegated after losing top scorer Steven
Gillespie. They narrowly avoided relegation on the final day last season and are going to
struggle to replace Gillespie's goals. Just three away wins last season was a major problem
as was having the second lowest goals tally in the league. I cant see where the goals are
coming from this year and Keith Downing has a massive job on his hands. Whilst cheltenham
look like strong relegation candidates, newly promoted Hereford look far worse off in my
opinion. Playing non league football three seasons ago, Hereford have been promoted twice
in three seasons but have not strengthened the playing staff nearly enough. Last season's
promotion came as quite a surprise and was mainly achieved as a result of several shrewd
loan signings from the higher divisions. Those players have now gone back to their clubs
leaving a very limited pool of players. The Bulls badly need to bring in a goalscorer and
yesterday's loan signing of Moses Ashikodi from Watford suggests Turner will try and
emulate last seasons transfer policy. I think it is a very risky tactic as players can be
recalled by their parent club at any time. Loan signings generally tend to be young players
looking for first team experience so they will not be ideal for a relegation battle either.
Page 56

I will be surprised if Leeds are not promoted this year but they are too short to back.
Leicester should eventually get their act together but again are poor value. Huddersfield
and Carlisle probably rate as decent outside bets but new boys Peterborough and Mk
Dons will require further strengthening. Carlisle's Danny Graham is more than capable of
equalling last seasons tally of fifteen and is too big at 33/1 with Skybet. If you miss the
price then take the 25/1 available with Corals, Hills and Blue Square. The Tote and B365
are just 14/1 which is far closer the mark. Hereford should be favourites for the drop in my
opinion and are desperately short of quality. 9/4 is too big and I expect an immediate
return to league two.
1pt Hereford to be relegated

9/4 at the time of advice with Bet365
9/4 current best price with Paddypower & Skybet
1/4pt each way Danny Graham top goalscorer

33/1 at the time of advice with Skybet
25/1 current best price with Coral & William Hill
season progresses.
Page 57
THE ORACLE: League Two Preview

A tricky league from an ante post betting point of view. The relegation market is not
currently being offered by most firms as Luton have been given a thirty point deduction for
being in administration. Rotherham and Bournemouth face similar penalties making the
market a mine field to bet on. The two relegated teams this year will almost certainly go
down with points deductions so the relegation market is best swerved. Top goalscorer is
also a tricky market to get involved in at this level. Most clubs in League Two operate on
shoe string budgets and any player who does well in the first half of the season, could well
move on in January. This makes the top goalscorer market a bit of a lottery as if your
player does too well he might move up a league and ruin your bet. Therefore the only
market really worth concentrating on is outright winner and promotion.
Shrewsbury have been the subject of quite a gamble this summer. They have been
backed in from 20/1 to 7/1 favourites after several decent signings. Grant Holt has arrived
for a club record fee from Nottingham Forest, Paul Walker has signed form Bristol Rovers,
Shane Cansdell-Sherriff from Tranmere and Paul Murray from Gretna. In Paul Simpson they
have a manager who has won this league before with Carlisle. It will be their second season
in a nice new stadium too, so they have had a settling in period. So plenty of positives
about Shrewsbury and I can see why they've been backed, but at 7/1 they are far too short
now. It must be remembered that they only managed fifty points last season, finishing
eighteenth just five places above the drop. They have brought in some good players but it
is going to take a huge improvement for them to win the league.
I think Bradford are in a far stronger position than last year and are my tip for League
Two. Stuart McCall has had a season to adjust to life in the basement division and has had a
clear out of dead wood in the summer. McCall has made several shrewd signings including
Michael Boulding who managed twenty one goals for relegated Mansfield last year. He
should be well capable of reaching a similar target in a far better team this year. Having
just joined in the summer he is unlikely to move again this season and I wouldn't put
anyone off backing him at 16/1 for top scorer. He should form a good partnership with
Peter Thorne. Paul Arnison, who achieved promotion with Carlisle two seasons ago, has
dropped back down a division and is another good signing. Paul McLaren from Tranmere
and Chris Brandon from Huddersfield have also dropped down from league one as McCall
puts together a very capable looking squad. Bradford averaged over 13000 through the gate
last season which is some way above the leagues average of 4000. A promotion challenge
could be rewarded by even bigger crowds still, creating considerable home advantage.
Darlington and Rochdale are next in the betting after successfully reaching the play offs
last season. Darlo have signed three players from promoted Stockport in Adam Proudlock,
David Poole and Adam Griffin. These three will make good additions but the loss of young
goalkeeper David Stockdale to Fulham is a big blow. Stockdale was the main reason behind
Darlington's fantastic defensive record and he will be difficult to replace. Manager Dave
Penney has a good pedigree after previous success with Doncaster and he has cleared out
those deemed not good enough over the summer. Another play off place is on the cards.
Rochdale also look set to challenge for the play offs again but will have to do so without
Dave Perkins who has been snapped up by Colchester. He has been replaced by Clark Keltie
from Darlington and Ciaran Toner from Grimsby who should both make good signings. A
poor playing surface at Spotland could be a big handicap in the winter months however.
Page 58
Wycombe were the other side to make the play offs last season but manager Paul Lambert
has since departed and new boss Peter Taylor has had a bit of a clear out over the summer.
Sergio Torres has moved on and Taylor's seven new signings will need time to settle
in. It will be interesting to see how things pan out at Wycombe but they do not look like
challengers just yet. Chesterfield just missed out on promotion last season and will be
hoping Jack Lester's goals can get them there this time around. Darren Currie has come in
and should do well at this level. Manager Lee Richardson is also well thought of.
Of the relegated teams from league one last season, Gillingham look best equipped to
bounce straight back.
Part of their problem in League one was that Stimson brought in too many players from
non league and the gap proved too big to bridge. However, the best players from the Blue
Square Premier often do very well in League two and the Gills should be capable of
mounting a challenge. Poor old Luton have no chance with a huge thirty point penalty and
will be dropping out of the league altogether if they cant get some back on appeal. Former
captain Kevin Nicholls has snubbed offers from bigger clubs to resign however and with the
pressure off, Luton could perform well.
Bournemouth are also still struggling financially and could well face another points
penalty. Sam Vokes has departed for Wolves leaving them hoping for mid table safety
whilst they try and get their house in order.
I don't think anyone else is really equipped to challenge in league two and the winner
should come from the above mentioned teams. Aldershot were promoted with over one
hundred points and should finish in the top half, but they have lost star player Joel Grant
to Crewe and will need a season to adjust to league football.

Bradford and Shrewsbury look like the teams to watch this year. Both have made shrewd
signings and have good managers. However, I think Bradford are in a stronger position and
are worth support at 9/1.
1/2pt Bradford to win league two

9/1 at the time of advice with 5 bookmakers
10/1 current best price with Ladbrokes
season progresses.
Page 59
SECTION 3.
Scottish Football
Page 60
GREG GORDON: Scottish Premier League Preview

One of the main criticisms of the SPL is the dominance of the two Old Firm clubs Rangers
and Celtic. No team outside the Old Firm has won the SPL since it was formed in 1998 and
there has only been one season (2005-06) where both clubs failed to occupy first and
second positions, with Hearts finishing second behind Celtic.
This season's title race will inevitably take on the cast of a battle between two bald men
fighting over a comb. Both Old Firm sides look jaded. Rangers lack of cash gives them
little room to manoeuvre. Celtic, despite having cash to spend, can't seem to attract
anyone of calibre to Parkhead. However, in a league where the bulk of the also-rans
appear to be going backwards we are unlikely to see a sustained challenge to the big two.
Dundee United, could prove a notable exception to the general rule. Already well
organised and capable of taking the game to seemingly better opponents - sometimes with
spectacular results - they have the best manager in midtable (Craig Levein) and in the
signings of Warren Feeney and Francesco Sandaza they may have solved their recent
goalscoring concerns. That could make them the best of the rest simply by default.
Celtic 21/25 Betchronicle

The clouds are massing at Parkhead. Gordon Strachan will never win over a significant
minority of the club's support, whatever he does, and the message is coming through loud
and clear in the transfer market that the SPL is not a league good players want to come to
- despite a near guarantee of Champions League football every year. Celtic won the title
at the death last term by default (as Rangers three front fixture programme finally caught
up with them). Celtic can no longer hope to rely on their fearsome home record in Europe
to see them through to the knockout stages, Caldwell and McManus do not convince as a
defensive pairing when faced with pace and movement and there is no natural ball winner
in an unbalanced side. Barry Robson, McGeady and McDonald cannot carry a side that also
boasts McManus, Caldwell, Naylor and Vennegoor of Hesselink.
Rangers 109/100 Betchronicle

Walter Smith defied the critics last season, with an unlikely quadruple bid sustained until
the final month of the season. Smith's double cup winners were admired and castigated in
equal measure for a rigid style of play dubbed anti-football by Argentinian sensation
Lionel Messi. Rangers are already out of Europe after a defeat by Lithuanian’s Kaunas that
is being talked of in terms of Rangers all-time worst results.
An injury that will see captain Barry Ferguson sidelined for around three months, the likely
transfer of Carlos Cuellar to raise cash, the ageing legs of David Weir and the uncertainty
surrounding Cousin and Boyd are all massive, massive negatives. There is also a distinct lack
of flair in Rangers play and that will hamper them in games where they are forced to chase
a result. Likely, the title race will come down to the head to head results in the Old Firm
derby games. Ahead of the season, Celtic look the least worst prepared for the season
ahead.
Page 61
Aberdeen 200/1 Centrebet

Aberdeen ended their season with a typically good performance to deny Rangers' title
ambitions but they are best measured on results away from Pittodrie. Last season they won
only four times on the road (with 11 defeats, 3 draws) and they could be even weaker this
time. At no other SPL club would the manager still be in place after humbling cup defeats
against the amateurs of Queens Park and First Divison QoS (where Aberdeen conceded four
times), yet, such is Jimmy Calderwood's ability to peddle excuses that he can look forward
to another season in the Aberdeen hotseat. The press may enjoy Calderwood's open door
policy but his players are apparently baffled by his tactics and disheartened by his constant
criticism of youngsters when underperforming senior players apparently escape censure.
After four years of low key investment and a steadily declining squad quality this could be
the season that things finally go stale for Calderwood. A poor pre-season including a 4-0
defeat at Peterhead and 0-0 draw with Dundee suggest that the writing is on the wall.
Hearts 250/1 Centrebet

After a search spanning six months, and 10 days, Hearts finally announced the appointment
of Csaba László as their new manager, on 11 July 2008 - hardly the ideal preparation for a
new season. Since 2004, when 'eccentric' Russian-Lithuanian multi-millionaire Vladimir
Romanov first began to be involved at Tynecastle, the epithet 'crisis club' has clung to
Hearts like a limpit. Nine managers in four years tells its own story and the only thing we
can say for sure about the Gorgie club is that their off-field activities will inevitably
overshadow what happens on the field of play. Anything, literally anything, could happen
there and Hearts are not a reliable betting proposition in any antepost market.
Motherwell 250/1 Centrebet

Motherwell may have emotionally recovered from the death of skipper Phil O'Donnell on the
Fir Park pitch last season but they are still to replace his influence on the park. UEFA cup
football could prove an early season distraction for Mark McGhee's paper thin squad, while
his own chequered track record suggests second season blues (or the overtures of wealthier
suitors) could see the still ambitious manager abandon ship, leaving Motherwell in the
lurch. Having seen Motherwell regularly last season I reckon their resurgence under McGhee
may owe much more to the short term fix of a new broom than to a genuine sustainable
improvement. A season on, Motherwell are still looking to replace weak links Craigan and
Graeme Smith, without any seeming success. Mark McGhee will have to add substance to
the hype next term if he decides to hang around at Fir Park. His much heralded 4-3-3
clearly represents an imposed ideal rather than a system that makes the most of extremely
limited personnel. Without changes, his team look very predictable. Motherwell are
particularly weak defending setpieces and, without the element of surprise in McGhee's
second campaign, his team should be easier meat for opponents who do their homework.
Hibernian 254/1 Betchronicle

At Easter Road, Hibs' boss Mixu Paatelainen has inherited many of the problems familiar to
Jimmy Calderwood at Aberdeen - only worse. Hibs are the perfect case study proving that a
business can't consistently sell its assets and still expect to prosper. Hibs have the cash
banked but won't spend despite having seen Tony Mowbray's starlets form a multi-million
pound orderly queue at the Easter Road exit. To add insult to injury, the inexperienced
Finnish boss, Paatelainen, has sent the natives restless by attempting to instill steel in the
absence of skill. Even the excellent Steven Fletcher's dip in form appeared to coincide with
Paatelainen's arrival and with a miserly wage cap and no cavalry coming over the hill
anytime soon Hibs have it all to do just to reach the top six. Paatelainen may not last the
season if results pan out as predicted. A preseason 6-0 pumping at home to Barcelona and a
timid acquiescence to Elfsborg in the Intertoto ensures that Hibs have gained nothing from
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their early return to action except the ill will of their generally knowledgeable fans whose
patience is once more being stretched to the hilt.
Dundee Utd 500/1

Dundee United were the SPL's most improved, most consistent and best organised side last
season and they would surely have claimed the third spot that just eluded them had they
kept hold of talismanic captain Barry Robson beyond the new year and been able to unearth
a fit and reliable frontman capable of augmenting the goals of Noel Hunt.
This term the negatives are that Robson's class and influence is all but irreplaceable for any
team outwith the top two and following the departure of keeper Szamotulski and full back
Kalvenes it is impossible to deny that The Arabs have lost their three best players (on
paper). The overrated but effective Noel Hunt also signed for Reading last week.
However, as a plus, and it is a major plus, Dundee United do appear to boast the smartest
manager in the section in the thorough Craig Levein and having built his team from the
back the former Hearts defender appears to have added the missing piece of the jigsaw -
regular goals - to a strong, together squad.
Ex-Leeds, Bournemouth and Swansea speedster Warren Feeney has been offered the chance
to resurrect a faltering career at Tannadice and he already looks in fine fettle, scoring a
hatrick against Second Division title pretenders Raith.
However, the most exciting capture could be Francesco Sandaza after the 23-year-old
Spanish striker left Valencia CF Mastalla to sign for Levein on a three year deal. The striker,
who scored 23 goals last season for Valencia's B team, announced his arrival in Scotland
with two goals against Arbroath. This video collection of video highlights from Spain offers
some encouragement that Sandaza's performances might just match the hype that is
emanating from Tayside: www.dailymotion.com/video/x5qaq0_francesco-sandaza_sport)
Granted the standard is poor and the defending is woeful but there is reason to be
optimistic that Sandaza will have a significant contribution to make to United's cause after
some encouraging displays so far and a wonder goal against Plymouth.
Of course, it is a fool who bets blind on the potential of an unseen signing turning up
trumps - especially in a foreign country. It would represent a leap of faith to back him as
SPL e/w top scorer unseen in a market where realistically there may only be one place up
for grabs behind the Old Firm top scorers. That said, Sandaza has been backed from 66/1
into 25/1 before a ball has been kicked in anger. At a best price 40/1 it is hard to know if
that particular boat has already been missed. I think it may be worth a small interest,
though as ever two Old Firm strikers are likely to fill the top two places on the scoring
charts.
Nonetheless, even if we disregard the incomers and simply assume Dundee United are no
stronger than they were in May they would still be worthy of support in a weak looking SPL
renewal.
Kilmarmock 1500/1 Centrebet

Jaded players, a jaded boss and finances teetering close to administration mean that
Kilmarnock went into the notebooks last spring as potential relegation candidates this term.
The side that, in recent times, has boasted £1m+ strikers of the calibre of Kris Boyd and
Steven Naismith, has been reduced to trawling Scotland's lower leagues and Irish football
for bargains. Jim Jeffries has pinned his hopes on Allan Russell of Airdrie (a previous failure
at St Mirren and Hamilton) and he will start the campaign on the treatment table. Other
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than the excellent Jamie Hamill, it is hard to find a single positive about Killie's current
predicament.
Falkirk 2000/1 Ladbrokes

Of the SPL lesser lights only Falkirk can justifiably complain that they have been underrated
by the bookmakers and they are 'almost' a bet with a 40pt start on Betfred's SPL handicap -
the only thing that puts us off is a similarly generous starts for Motherwell and Dundee Utd
that cancels out any advantage. This summer, boss Yogi Hughes has added experience in
the shape of Lee Bullen, Jackie McNamara and Neil McCann and if he can get a tune from
this veteran trio there is plenty of potential in his exciting young passing team. Hughes
attacking principles ensure that he will regularly gamble to turn draws into wins and if his
bold strategy is rewarded it should be reflected in a prominent league position in an
otherwise tight midtable. More heavy pitches could be a major impediment to Falkirk's
chances this season as their passing game cries out for good surfaces and decent weather.
Inverness 2500/1 Centrebet

The preseason prospects for ICT have been dominated by the transfer saga of 'luxury
signing' Marius Niculae's move to Dinamo Bucharest but it would be no surprise to see
Inverness' progress unimpeded by the forward's exit. Nicuale's meagre haul of just ten goals
were clearly gained at a price with his subsidised wage upsetting morale within a previously
united dressing room. Inverness can always be relied upon to cede the points to Aberdeen
and embarrass Celtic at some point every season and it could be more of the same this
time. The aggressive, alienating management style of Craig Brewster is a major negative
and while he remains in charge it seems unlikely that ICT will conform to anything other
than current expectations.
Hamilton 5000/1 Centrebet

At 4/7 Hamilton 'almost' look nailed on for relegation and, while they could make a fight of
it, they nonetheless look the most likely wooden spoon winners. Take away their half-time-
watered artificial pitch - that contributed to an astonishing home record of only three goals
being conceded at New Douglas Park last season - and Hamilton were nothing more than a
decent First Division side. Now they are back on grass, that reality should become all too
apparent. Hamilton boast a good manager in Billy Reid but the suspicion remains that their
hyped youngsters, such as Liverpool target James McCarthy, are not so special. That said,
newly promoted sides to the SPL invariably start well and if Hamilton can continue that
trend there is enough mediocrity around them to see them stay up. At this stage that 4/7 is
neither a price I would want to back or lay.
St Mirren 5000/1 Centrebet

By the law of Buggins Turn St Mirren could well see themselves topping the relegation mini-
league they are perennially pitched into with the likes of Falkirk, Kilmarnock and Inverness.
St Mirren registered a mere two home wins in the calendar year of 2007. In January 2008
alone however, they registered three consecutive home victories and they gained 15 home
points at home from seven second half of the season games at Love Street. That improved
return was largely due to the dynamic contribution of transfer window signing Andy
Dorman. The Welshman, signed from New England, has been a revelation since arriving in
Paisley in January, quickly establishing himself at St Mirren's key man alongside another
shrewd Gus MacPherson signing centre half Will Haining. St Mirren's fortunes will inevitably
continue to be linked to the form and availability of these two key men and it remains to
be seen whether Dorman will remain in Scotland beyond the transfer window. On the
transfer front, Dundee United's Steven Robb became Gus MacPherson's fourth capture of
the summer, joining strikers Dennis Wyness, Tom Brighton and full-back Jack Ross. As a
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result, St Mirren should enjoy greater squad depth this season than for some time. It won't
be pretty but it can be better than the relegation battle that characterised their first two
seasons back in the SPL.
Recommended Bets
Dundee United to win SPL Without the Old Firm e/w
4/1 at the time of advice
7/2 current best price with Totesport & Coral
Worth considering:
Franceso Sandaza (Dun Utd) top SPL scorer 40/1 ew Coral

40/1 at the time of advice with Coral
33/1 current best price with Bet365, Totesport, Bluesquare & 888Sport
season progresses.
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GREG GORDON: Scottish First Division Preview

St Johnstone 9/4 VC Bet

St Johnstone are known locally as 'the team the bookies love to lay', on account of their
uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The title favourites are the
ultimate enigma.
After so many near misses in recent years, the Perth men look poor value for the title at
9/4 (30% win chance) but even here we can't agree what price they should be - or whether
they are stronger or indeed weaker this term. I'll be looking to see one of their games as
early as possible but so far, reports from our contacts suggest that St Johnstone may, as
usual, be overrated.
The main reason for optimism in The Fair City is the successful capture of ex-Chelsea
midfielder Jody Morris, who finished last season in Perth in good form. Other than that, the
squad looks no better or worse than the solid, unspectacular side that lost another Scottish
Cup Semi Final (played seven, lost seven) and finished third in the league behind Dundee
and Hamilton last term.
Unproven manager Derek McInnes has shown promise, after taking over from Owen Coyle
mid-season. However, in his first full campaign as a boss, he has it all to do to turn these
perennial underachievers into champions.
Dundee 5/2 Centrebet

Arguably, only the unfair advantage Hamilton's surreptitiously watered artificial pitch
prevented Dundee from claiming the title last season. Hamilton conceded a mere three
goals in last season's home campaign - and those that played there last season have no
doubt that the pitch was the crucial factor.
Now with a level (grass) playing field for all the runners this season, Alex Rae will be
hopeful of going one better this time.
On paper the signings look very good. Ex-international Colin Cameron should add valuable
experience and no little ability, Eric Paton and Craig McKeown should be reliable additions,
while young Eddie Mearns comes with a good reputation from Hearts as a fiery ball-winner.
Offering deals to veterans Rab Douglas and Jim Lauchlan probably represent a gamble on
Rae's part but equally, the signing of the under-utilised Hamilton winger Mark Gilhaney
suggests that Rae not only has an eye for overlooked talent but is prepared to be his own
man. I have also been impressed with his ability to make decisive substitutions and tactical
changes when I have seen his team.
So far so good then, but enthusiasm must be tempered against the loss of Scotland U21 star
Kevin McDonald, Scott Robertson and Milan Palenik in the close season - and that cannot be
played down.
However, if Alex Rae can keep the 'eccentric', yet talented Mikael Antoine Curier sweet for
Page 66
another season then Dundee look like being a very exciting proposition indeed.
Queen of the South 13/2 Bet365

As long as the Dumfries men can avoid one of their trademark slow starts to the season
there is every chance that they will be in the promotion picture come May.
Last season's Scottish Cup Finalists (where they lost 3-2 to Rangers) have started well with a
Challenge Cup mauling of Berwick and having experienced the heights last season, the team
look, fit, motivated and raring to go - no doubt buoyed by their imminent UEFA Cup
adventure.
One possible negative would be that a rash of domestic and European cup games early on
could see their concentration distracted from league business and their squad depth
stretched to the limits - there may also be a price to pay in terms of freshness at the
business end of the season.
Other than the return of U21 star Jamie Adams from Kilmarnock there is nothing too
notable in Gordon Chisholm's pre-season signings, while the loss of Ryan McCann (to
Morecambe) is a potentially big blow.
Over all though, this Queens side have the look of a settled squad growing in confidence
and experience. In Stephen Dobbie, QoS also boast the best finisher in the section and after
a productive preseason the ex-Hibs and Rangers striker looks significantly leaner, meaner
and quicker than he has in past seasons.
Dunfermline 9/1 William Hill

Last season Dunfermline started the campaign as everyone's likely champions and ended it
having terminated the false dawn of Irishman Stephen Kenny and having narrowly avoided
administration.
Of the side that contested the 2007 Cup Final against Celtic, only Wilson, Shields,
Muirhead, Glass and player boss Macintyre remain. The other squad places being comprised
of youngsters, journeymen and veterans of varying provenance.
Having cut their cloth according to their purse it was hard to see Dunfermline bouncing
back now - at least on paper - until this week. The signing of ex-Hearts man Andy Kirk on a
£1,000 per week deal suggests Dunfermline are pulling out all the stops this season. This
may be the last throw of the dice for the club who faced down administration prior to
sacking Stephen Kenny.
Even prior to this bold move, a number of shrewd judges amongst my contacts were
adamant that Dunfermline, not St Johnstone, will pose the biggest threat to Dundee in the
title race. By all accounts Jim McIntyre bears all the hallmarks of a charismatic leader and
perhaps, now he has his own players, he can mould Dunfermline into title challengers. A 3-0
home win over Stirling in the Challenge Cup augured well on the opening day and they were
extremely unlucky in defeat at Partick last week, prior to an easy 2-0 win at Peterhead in
midweek in The CIS Cup.
The finances in Scotland’s First Division were thrown into sharp relief for me on Saturday
following a conversation with a contact at Partick Thistle. While Thistle boss Ian McCall has
stumped up £250 a week to loan promising Hibs’ youngster Damon Gray, his counterpart at
Dunfermline, Jim McIntyre, has splashed £1,000 per week each to persuade Inverness’
Graham Bayne and former Hearts and Yeovil striker Andy Kirk to join his promotion
bandwagon this season.
Page 67
Dunfermline have one of the best cup pedigrees of any side in Scotland outside The Old
Firm of Celtic and Rangers. Last year’s Challenge Cup Finalists, reached the Scottish Cup
Final in 2007 and 2004, and the CIS Cup final in 2006, losing each time. However, in the last
three season’s Dunfermline’s cup form has been shown in sharp relief to successively
disappointing league campaigns.
In some ways it is hard to comprehend why this would be the case. After all Dunfermline
boast much coveted former Rangers men Scott Wilson and Greg Shields (both rejected
deals with Aberdeen for financial reasons last season), former Scotland internationals
Stephen Glass, Kevin Harper and Paul Gallagher and promising youngsters Steven Bell,
Greg Ross and Nick Phinn. One charge leveled at the underachievers is that professional
pride has taken a backseat to financial comfort for Dunfermline’s senior pros who would
be worldbeaters if they could manage their undoubted talents with as much assuredness
as they do their off-field investments. Dunfermline may be teetering on the brink of
administration yet until this season it has remained the ultimate comfort zone for their
best paid, frequently injured players.
Now that MacIntryre has his own players to work with, he can hopefully mould
Dunfermline into title challengers this term. With the addition of Kirk and Bayne, I feel
they are sure to be there or thereabouts.
Partick Thistle 14/1 William Hill

It looks like a season of deja-vu for The Jags once more.
Their small forwards and paper-thin squad will probably make hay while the sun shines
playing a high tempo passing game based on smart forward movement. Last season's
events suggest that their challenge will hit the buffers as soon as injuries and suspensions
bite with a change in the weather. Partick's ground-share with a rugby team looks
extremely ill-advised for a team that wants to play passing football - but economic needs
must. There is no money for boss Ian McCall and the incoming transfers have comprised
contracts for youth players, free transfers and a loan deal.
Last season Thistle enjoyed an excellent home record with only Aberdeen, Hamilton and
Morton winning at Firhill. Early signs are that they should be similarly secure at the back
this term.
Livingston 16/1 Betfred

If Dunfermline and St Johnstone are potential enigmas, Livingston must rate as complete
unknowns following their summer buy-out by Italian investors. Roberto Landi, best known
as a goalkeeping coach with the USA national side, is the new boss relying on local
insights from Davie Hay (former Celtic, Dunfermline and Livingston boss).
The likes of Caiaffa, Alonso Nano and Cuenca are complete unknowns to me at this early
stage. There is no doubt that, if the five overseas imports new to Almondvale can be
slotted in effectively, Livi would be a force to be reckoned with. Boasting one of the
best youth set-ups in Scotland and a native core of decent performers such as McPake,
Mackay, Fox and McParland, Livingston are definitely a team to add to the watch list as a
potential dark horse. The loss of Livingston's two best players, Dorrans and Snodgrass, to
England in the summer is however a major negative and The Lions will have to be re-
evaluated with a few games under their belts.
Ross Cty 20/1 Sportingbet
Page 68
As a newly promoted side from Division Two, Ross County have clearly been written off
as potential title challengers by the compilers. However encouraging results against
Falkirk in pre-season (2-2) and in knocking holders St Johnstone out of the Challenge Cup
suggest they deserve close attention at this stage.
County's five summer signings all boast a varying degree of SPL experience and rate
interesting, decent or better at First Division level. Like most Highland teams Ross
County boast a squad of underrated and under the radar players who could easily prove
to be better than more illustrious opponents based at teams within Scotland's Central
Belt.
Ross County are an ambitious club with a very good youth set up which is hardly
surprising given that former Old Firm youth supremo George Adams is Director of
Football. Adams' son, Ex-Aberdeen and Motherwell midfielder, Derek Adams is County's
current boss. His predecessor Dick Campbell was sacked by Ross County with the team
top of Division Two, allegedly as a reaction to Campbell's defensive tactics.
This season, at least initially, they look like a team to selectively support at value prices,
especially at home.
Morton 22/1 Tote

Morton narrowly avoided a relegation play-off last season and it is hard to see them
avoiding a similar fate this time in a section where many of the lesser lights may be
significantly stronger than last term.
Morton lack genuine squad depth, especially in the full back positions where they have
fielded trialists in some pre-season games. The midfield looks strong but workmanlike
with the only real flair coming from McAlister who can play wide or in the centre. Ex-
Liverpool youngster Jon Newby is an interesting introduction to an otherwise prosaic
front line. A star of the 1996 FA Youth Cup winners, Newby's career has been
characterised by the law of diminishing returns as he has plummeted down the leagues.
He looks a potentially exciting acquisition for Morton but the obvious question must be:
does Newby's appetite for the game remain? That will only become apparent when the
season starts in earnest.
Clyde 33/1 Centrebet

With 12 in and nine out in the close season, John Brown's Clyde team that starts the new
season will inevitably be a different side to the one that narrowly avoided relegation in a
play-off win over Airdrie.
The jury remains out on John Brown's management credentials but he nonetheless
appears to have made some decent moves in the transfer market, fending off a host of
competitors to land Queens Park's talented midfielders Trouten and Kettlewell. The
signing of 'enigmatic' winger Willie McLaren (ex-Airdrie and St Johnstone) also looks
admirably courageous as Brown builds a squad of hungry players with 'something to
prove'.
A lot of the deadwood that characterised the under-funded tenure of Colin Hendry at
Broadwood has been stripped away while the best players - McGregor, Hutton, Higgins,
Roddy MacLennan and Pat Clarke - have been retained. At this stage Clyde look like a
team to watch closely with a view to backing them at bigger prices against midtable
opposition and below.
Airdrie Utd 40/1
Page 69
With the transfer of top scorer Allan Russell to Kilmarnock the general view transpired
that Airdrie's chance of even moderate success up a division was gone.
However, Kenny Black has shown himself to be a resourceful operator in the transfer
market in the past and he looks to have done it again.
Smyth, McDonald, Noble and McDougall should have no trouble stepping up a level but it
is the signings of Di Giacomo, Lynch and Hazley (all pedigree players with something to
prove) that offer most cause for optimism. A come from behind 3-2 win against Third
Division favourites Dumbarton in the Challenge Cup doesn't instantly set the pulses racing
but, in time, it may come to be viewed as a dogged, and ultimately professional
performance.
However, as good as Black is as a wheeler dealer and as attractive and attacking as

Airdrie's play can be, there is one major negative. The New Broadwood crowd must rate
as the most fickle and impatient home support in Scotland and as a result, Airdrie cannot
be backed at short odds at home with confidence. Before getting involved I'd always
want to see the potential crowd reaction reflected in available prices.
Recommended Bets
Dundee 11/5 with Extrabet to win outright
Dunfermline 10/1 each way with Coral
season progresses.
Page 70
INSIDER MR X: Scottish Premier League Preview

7/2 Dundee great value in the race for 3rd place...

Since the start of the Scottish Premier League (SPL) in 1998, no team has
managed to muscle in on the domination of Celtic and Rangers. In the All-Time SPL
table which spans 10 seasons, the pair sit a massive 270+ points ahead of the next best
side.
Total domination - and after the meltdown down at Hearts recently, it

doesn’t look like changing anytime soon. The bookmakers had no choice but to chalk
up a ‘Without the Old Firm’ market - betting on the SPL winner without Celtic
and Rangers. They’ve been doing so for a good few seasons now - however this year they’ve
slipped up in offering 7/2 about Dundee Utd...
Here’s how they bet...
Dundee Utd 7/2

Aberdeen 4/1
Hearts 5/1
Hibernian 5/1
Motherwell 5/1
Bar 33/1
As regular readers will know, I am a bit of an anorak when it comes to statistics – and
monitor all betting categories in all the major European Leagues. With so many stats to
hand, it’s easy to spot trends - and the trend that jumps off the SPL database right now is
the improvement of Dundee United.
There’s simply too much relevant form to place it all in front of you - so I’ve taken a
series of ‘form snapshots’, one in each of seven key attack/defence categories. These
pinpoint the excellent chance that Dundee Utd has of finishing above all barring the Old
Firm in the coming season.
Here’s how the Home data shapes up...
Shots On Target Accuracy Goals Shots per Possession

Rating Ratings Rating Ratings Goal(SPG) % Ratings
Dundee Utd 12.2 7.7 5.4 3.1 44.26% 40.25% 1.4 0.7 8.7 11.0 52.1 47.9
Aberdeen 11.0 9.7 4.6 4.0 41.81% 41.23% 1.6 1.1 6.8 8.8 51.1 48.9
Hearts 11.3 10.3 5.3 4.4 46.90% 42.72% 1.4 1.4 8.1 7.4 51.4 48.6
Hibernian 11.1 14.1 5.7 6.7 51.35% 47.52% 1.9 1.1 5.8 12.8 48.4 51.6
Motherwell 12.5 8.6 5.2 3.5 41.60% 40.69% 1.6 1.4 7.8 6.2 52.7 47.3
Of all the five serious contenders for 3rd place, Dundee Utd has the best 2007/8
backroom engine. A great mix of figures - not just solid highs in the ‘for’ columns but
also competent ‘lows’ in the ‘against’ columns and for me, that’s what sets Dundee Utd
apart from the others.
Dundee Utd in Attack:
The Tangerines are the best Shot generator of the five contenders for 3rd place - and
Page 71
they also maintained a good level of Accuracy throughout the season. United
also command a regularly high level of Ball Possession.
The bottom line is a satisfactory Goal total in

the ‘for’ column.
Dundee Utd in Defence:
Dundee Utd are the best ‘Shot Restrictor’ of the five contenders - and they force the worst
Accuracy percentage from opponents too. The Tangerines regularly charge an
expensive shot price from the opposition (Shots Per Goal ‘against’) for every goal
conceded, and consistently give their ‘keeper adequate protection. The bottom line is a
low Goal total in the ‘against’ column.
This mix of solid ‘for’ ratings and low ‘against’ ratings is exactly what we are
looking for when it comes to Ante Post betting - over the course of a 38 match
season this good mix pays dividends – good attack work being regularly protected by an
effective defence.
Now for a look at the Away data for those five listed teams...
Shots On Target Accuracy Goals Shots per Possession

Rating Ratings Rating Ratings Goal(SPG) % Ratings
Dundee Utd 8.5 10.5 3.9 4.6 46.6% 43.7% 1.4 1.7 6.1 6.2 49.6 50.4
Aberdeen 10.3 13.4 4.4 7.2 43.0% 53.9% 0.9 2.1 11.4 6.4 47.3 52.7
Hearts 9.9 12.1 4.2 6.1 41.9% 50.5% 1.1 1.6 9.0 7.5 49.2 50.8
Hibernian 9.6 14.2 4.2 6.5 43.2% 45.9% 0.8 1.2 12.0 11.8 48.3 51.7
Motherwell 9.3 11.5 3.7 5.0 39.9% 43.5% 1.0 1.1 9.3 10.5 49.2 50.8
Once again, it’s United’s defence that wins them a place at the top of my list.
None of the five teams manage to register any positives, but as far as United’s 3rd
place hopes are concerned, the fact that they have no significant negatives will hold
them in good stead this season - and I believe they’ll come out on top in the 2008/9 away
department.
Overall, Hearts’ home form just isn’t good enough to make them a genuine joint
favourite - they continue to suffer from a series of backroom wrangles and with
another dubious appointment in the coach department, it’s hard to foresee any great
improvement in 2008/9.
7/2 Dundee United looks big enough to merit a 2-point investment.

Event: Football, Scottish Premier League 2008/9
Tip: Dundee United to win the SPL ‘Without Celtic and Rangers’
Stake: 2 points
Price: 7/2
Check for the very latest odds online at: http://Odds.SportsXtra.co.uk
Double up at 13/1!
Sports betting sometimes throws up ‘Each Way’ opportunities that are perfect for
careful backers. And there are a couple we’ve identified in this month’s Insider that - when
put together - return a very nice 13/1 on the ‘win’ part and a stake saving
8/5 on the each way ‘place’ portion...
Sevilla in the ‘La Liga Without Barcelona and Real Madrid’ market and
Page 72
Dundee Utd in the ‘SPL Without the Old Firm’ market both look perfect Each Way
bets that, when combined in a lively double, present us with a total profit opportunity of
over 14 points.
Unfortunately, only one bookmaker has chalked up both markets with the fairest place
terms so far, and that’s Blue Square, who quote Dundee Utd @ 3/1 (1/5 odds 3 places) and
Sevilla @ 5/2 (1/4 odds 3 places). If you can get on, it’s a bet well worth having in your
2008/9 football portfolio.
Recommended Bets
Dundee United to win the SPL without ‘Without the Old Firm’ AND
Sevilla to win La Liga ‘Without Barcelona and Real Madrid’.
Each Way double
3/1 and 5/2 at the time of advice with Ladbrokes & Coral
3/1 and 9/4 current best price with Coral
season progresses.
Page 73
SECTION 4.
La Liga – Spanish
Football
Page 74
INSIDER MR X: La Liga Preview
Big Profits without the Big Boys

The quest for Champions League football is killing some clubs - especially those that are not
members of Europe’s footballing elite...
Take the La Liga for example - in 2006/7 both Sevilla and Valencia broke blood vessels
clawing themselves into 3rd and 4th places in the league respectively – to give themselves a
place in the 2007/8 Champions League.
Both clubs made it through the qualifiers, taking their place in the Group stages of the
world’s biggest club competition, but the price for that success was paid for in the
domestic league.
After such good La Liga seasons in 2006/7, both Sevilla and Valencia felt the pressures of
‘mixing it’ with the greatest teams in Europe...
Sevilla ended up a distinctly average 5th last term, with their Win-Draw-Loss (WDL) record
of 20-4-14 a far cry from their 21-8- 9 in 2006/7. In the end the pressure of a good run in
the Champions League was just too much, and along with the loss of manager Juande
Ramos, Sevilla simply couldn’t handle the domestic pace.
Valencia suffered a shocking 2007/8. After exerting so much effort in qualifying for the
Champions League, it was a huge disappointment to see them totally outclassed in Europe
where they finished bottom of Group B with just one win to their name.
The knock-on effect was an equally bad La Liga effort where they finished in a woeful 10th
place - once again a far cry from the club’s 4th place finish in 2006/7.
In fact, they were full 15 points worse. Thanks to some pro-active odds compilers who have
chalked up a La Liga market ‘Without Real Madrid and
Barcelona’, you and I have the chance to make this ‘Champions League drain’ trend pay
off.
Here’s how the bookies are betting without the big two...
Sevilla 5/2
Atletico Madrid 11/4
Villarreal 11/4
Valencia 6/1
Racing Santander 33/1
Deportivo 50/1
Getafe 50/1
Athletic Bilbao 66/1
Espanyol 66/1
Mallorca 66/1
BAR 100/1
Sevilla have been banged out from a 2007/8 ‘odds-on’ shot to a 5/2 chance in 2008/9, with
the odds of Atletico Madrid and Villarreal both slashed by over 50%.
There’s a big difference of opinion on Valencia. Some firms are as big as 6/1 about their
chances in this market, whilst Betfred are as short as 3/1. Either way, they’re a much
bigger price than they were at this time last year.
Page 75
At the odds available we have to go against the betting flow - opposing both the new
Champions League entrants Villarreal and Atletico Madrid. Not only have they both got a
stack on their plate this season , but they also own worrying negatives that suggest they
overachieved last year.
Going down for the Yellow Submarine...

There’s no doubt about it, Villarreal had a fantastic 2007/8 - they finished in 2nd place after
an impressive 24-5-9 season, but it’s not hard to see where the potential cracks are...
Away from home Villarreal profited massively from some super-sharp finishing - they
recorded 30 goals from just 186 shots. That’s an SPG (Shots Per Goal) price of just 6.2 - the
clear lowest ‘away’ SPG in the La Liga last season.
Maintaining that level of finishing will be near on impossible.
At home Villarreal once again struggled to generate shooting chances - their total home
shots tally of 256 ‘for’ wasn’t bad, but it was a mile behind Barcelona (322), Real Madrid
(332) and Sevilla (330). Basically, everything went Villarreal’s way in 2007/8, and I certainly
won’t be backing them to do it again in 2008/9 - especially given the extra workload that
they’ll have.
The last time this club qualified for the Champions League they finished the season in 7th
place in the league, and although I expect better than that this season, a 3 rd place finish
looks a bigger price than the current 11/4 on offer.
The Indians are going into the Red

Atletico Madrid finished 2007/8 in 4th place, with a 19-7-12 WDL and a season Goal
Difference of +19 (66-47.) Their best finish for over a decade - not bad given that they were
squaring up without their talisman Fernando Torres.
As was the case with Villarreal, everything went Atletico’s way last season - they too
profited from a batch of bargain priced goals, however it’s also true to say that they were
no where near as potent away from home as Villarreal.
And it’s this road form that worries me - Atletico finished the season with a distinctly
average 7-5-7 away record (5th place on the La Liga ‘away’ ladder), and the fact that they
had to rely on a string of cheap goals to accrue just 26 points does not bode well for the
2008/9 season.
As was the case with Villarreal, Atletico Madrid also own some interesting Champions
League history... The last time they qualified for a place in Europe’s big one (after they
won the La Liga title in 1995/96) they followed up with a 5th place La Liga finish in 96/97,
a 7th place finish in 97/98, a 13th place finish in 98/99 and finally a 19th placed finish in
99/00, which resulted in them being relegated from the La Liga altogether.
Atletico Madrid are not a consistent team and with the added workload, it’s very hard to
see them equalling their 2007/8 La Liga finish let alone bettering it.
No value in Valencia
Valencia are another team I cannot fancy to make a serious challenge for 3rd place in
2008/9...
Page 76
In Valencia’s favour is the fact that they have nothing European to distract them in 2008/9
- they were so poor last season that they failed to qualify even for the UEFA Cup.
So much was wrong last term though, and it’s really hard to see them correcting all of
these wrongs in order to push for 2008/9 finish above all bar Real and Barca. 6/1 might look
tempting, but the best I can see for Valencia is a place and the 1/3 odds 1st and 2nd each
way terms are just too skinny to invest at.
That’s not the case with Sevilla though, who at 5/2 look a cracking bet...
The ripe 5/2 about Sevilla looks a juicy pick

Not many odds-on chances are chalked up at 5/2 just 12 months later, but that’s what has
happened with Sevilla. Despite their below par 2007/8 season, I think they’re well worth a
bet at the odds available.
Here’s brief rundown of their positives from last season, starting with their home form...
Sevilla are one of the La Liga big guns at home. They finished with a massive shot total of
330 (ranked 2nd only 2 shots behind Real), an ‘On Target’ shots total of 125 (3rd behind
Barca 138 and Real 143) and a Goals total of 46 (ranked 2nd behind Real 53).
In the Possession department Sevilla were once again ranked amongst the best. Their total
Possession for the season (1052%) was again only inferior to Barca and Real and their ‘Saves
Forced’ total for the season of 82 was again well clear of the field barring Real (91) and
Barca (92).
Away from home things weren’t so good, however they were far from bad, and I’m betting
that - with a lighter workload and less pressure - Sevilla will get things back
on track on the road.
They finished the ‘away’ season with 239 shots in the ‘for’ column (ranked 2nd behind only
Barca), 77 ‘On Target’ shots (Ranked 5th) and 29 Goals (Ranked 4th) with their
performance in the Possession (50.63% average) also suggesting all is far from lost.
With the focus back on the La Liga, we can expect a return to form for Sevilla and with it, a
3rd place finish at the very least.
Recommended Bets
Sevilla to win La Liga ‘Without Barcelona & Real Madrid’
5/2 at the time of advice
9/4 current best price with Bet365 & Stan James
season progresses.
Page 77
BETTING BROADCAST: PODCASTS

Website address: http://www.bettingbroadcast.com
Here at the Secret Betting Club we also produce a number of free betting podcasts for you
to listen to. Betting Broadcast at http://www.bettingbroadcast.com has been developed
as a central location for all our audio communication from us here at the Secret Betting
Club. You can listen to the latest podcasts as well as previous editions either by streaming
them over the Internet or by downloading to your computer.
To date we have published 12 podcasts, all of which are between around 10 and 15 minutes
long. In addition at the Betting Broadcast site you can also listen to the hour-long interview
podcast special that SBC editor Mike Bishop did with professional gambler Matt Watson and
a 2nd interview with Mike Marsland from Big Mike Betting.
All podcasts come in MP3 format, which ensures they are the smallest file size possible
without compromising quality.
Send on your Podcast Feedback and News
Send all your podcast related material to mike@secretbettingclub.com. Mark all emails with
the word 'Podcast'.
We are especially interested in receiving any stories or information that you wish for us to
discuss in a future podcast.
What is a Podcast?
A podcast is simply a short audio recording that you can stream over the Internet or
download to your computer. In our case each recording is often no longer than 15 minutes
long and most Internet connections should be able to download it in 20 minutes maximum.
Alternatively you can ‘stream’ the Podcast so it plays directly off the Internet, meaning you
do not have to download it.
Page 78
RACING PROOFING: TIPSTER VERIFICATION

Website address: http://www.racingproofing.com
If you are interested in making further money betting via Horse Racing, then be sure to visit
our free Racing Proofing website.
It is a tremendous resource where we proof many popular Horse Racing tipsters and verify
their advice for you to view. Currently there are around 30 different advisory services listed
and ranked, with the ability to view detailed performance in a downloadable spreadsheet
file format.
The Racing Proofing website is manually updated and every bet double-checked for
accuracy, availability of odds to ensure that results that are listed are as accurate as
possible.
Racing Proofing is also helping to weed out even further those less-desirable services who
give this industry a bad name and to add a much needed professional proofing service to
the betting advisory arena.
Racing Proofing is regularly updated every 10 to 14 days so keep checking back to see the
latest progress for each tipster.
FRIDAY FREEBIE: EASY MONEY EVERY

WEEKEND
If you are interested in making some free extra cash each weekend then look no further
than our Friday Freebie.
Every Friday we study the latest Bookmaker & Casino bonuses to create risk free cash
making opportunities for you!.
There's no form to study, no dodgy tipsters, just make some quick bets and make some easy
money just in time for the weekend.
We send each Friday Freebie directly to your email address, so if you want to sign up to
receive these please visit http://www.racingproofing.com/fridayfreebie/index.html
Page 79
Disclaimer
The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any
money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual.
Page 80

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Football Betting 08/09 – The Definitive Guide

Here is to a profitable season!

Mike Bishop & Dan Jones

SECRET BETTING CLUB: ABOUT US

In fact, you can see evidence of our actual success by visiting

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Mike Bishop & Dan Jones

FREE: SAMPLE EDITION

Football Betting 08/09: THE EXPERTS

We recommend that you use an odds comparison service such as at www.oddschecker.com

Also check out http://www.racingproofing.com/fridayfreebie/bestodds.html &

Football Betting 08/09: HOW TO USE

Section one – English Premier League

Section 2 – English Championship, League 1 and League 2

Section 3 – Scottish Football

Section 4 – Spanish Football

TIPSTER PROFILE: THE ORACLE

• English Premier League

The Oracle: http://www.football-bets.co.uk

TIPSTER PROFILE: INSIDER MR X

• English Premier League

The Insider: http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/INSOP/

Matt Nesbitt is the publisher of Mr X’s tipping service listed, plus:

TIPSTER PROFILE: SPORTS INVESTOR

• English Premier League

Sports Investor: http://www.sports-investor.net

TIPSTER PROFILE: GREG GORDON (Scottish

• Scottish Premier League.

Scottish Football: http://www.scottishfootballbets.com/

THE ORACLE: Premier League Preview

Team By Team Analysis & Recommendations.

Summary & Recommended Bets

1pt Harry Redknapp to be the top English manager

1/2 pt Liverpool to win the Carling cup 10/1 Skybet

SPORTS INVESTOR: Premier League Preview

In order to be successful at this game, you need to develop a deep-rooted understanding of

English Premier League, Asian Handicap Table

Chelsea Football Club (ATS)

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE: 2008/2009

Criteria 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Overall

Criteria 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Average

HISTORICAL RELATIVE STRENGTH

Sunderland Football Club * 27 18.5 8.5 31 64 -33

Promoted Sides in their First Season

Arsenal Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Aston Villa Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Blackburn Rovers Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Bolton Wanderers Football Club

2003/04 53.0 26.0 27.0 48.0 56.0 -8.0

Transfers In Transfers Out

Chelsea Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Everton Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Fulham Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Hull Football Club

Transfers In Transfers Out

Liverpool Football Club

2004/05 58.0 40.0 18.0 52.0 41.0 11.0