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Group 3
Aliza Rashid
Amena Rizvi
Osama Khan
Mujtaba Sarwar
Rabab Kazmi
1
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
Liquidity Ratios..............................................................................................................................................................................................................4
Current Ratio............................................................................................................................................................................................................4
Acid Test Ratio..........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
Profitability Ratios........................................................................................................................................................................................................5
Gross Profit Margin Ratio.........................................................................................................................................................................................5
Operating Profit Margin Ratio..................................................................................................................................................................................5
Earnings before Tax Margin Ratio............................................................................................................................................................................6
Net Profit Margin Ratio............................................................................................................................................................................................6
Return on Total Assets Ratio....................................................................................................................................................................................7
Return on Common Equity Ratio.............................................................................................................................................................................7
Asset Management Ratios............................................................................................................................................................................................8
Inventory Turnover Ratio.........................................................................................................................................................................................8
DAY SALES OUTSTANDING RATIO............................................................................................................................................................................8
Fixed Asset Turnover................................................................................................................................................................................................9
Total Asset Turnover................................................................................................................................................................................................9
Debt Management Ratio............................................................................................................................................................................................10
Debt to Asset Ratio................................................................................................................................................................................................10
Debt to Equity Ratio...............................................................................................................................................................................................10
Times Interest Earned Ratio...................................................................................................................................................................................11
Market Value Ratios...................................................................................................................................................................................................12
Earnings per Share Ratio........................................................................................................................................................................................12
Price to Earnings Ratio...........................................................................................................................................................................................12
Book Value Per Share Ratio....................................................................................................................................................................................13
COMPARISON WITH PAKISTAN STATE OIL (PSO):.....................................................................................................................................................13
Current Ratio..........................................................................................................................................................................................................13
ACID TEST RATIO:...................................................................................................................................................................................................13
INVENTORY TURNOVER RATIO:.............................................................................................................................................................................14
DAY SALES OUTSTANDING RATIO:.........................................................................................................................................................................14
NET PROFIT MARGIN:.............................................................................................................................................................................................14
RETURN ON ASSETS:..............................................................................................................................................................................................14
RETURN ON EQUITY:..............................................................................................................................................................................................15
TIMES INTEREST EARNED:......................................................................................................................................................................................15
DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO:.........................................................................................................................................................................................15
FIXED ASSET TURNOVER:.......................................................................................................................................................................................15
DUPONT ANALYSIS:.....................................................................................................................................................................................................16
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3
Introduction
Shell Pakistan Ltd. serves to be a multinational company and is a public limited company in
Pakistan that sells and manufactures petroleum products such as Oil, CNG gas, aviation fuel
etc. It’s a subsidiary of the Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Haroon Rashid is the CEO of Shell
Pakistan. The main aim and goal of Shell Pakistan is that to position itself as the preferred
oil company in Pakistan, leading the field in its commitment to safety, customer service,
quality and environmental protection. Currently Shell is the second most preferred company
for oil in the petroleum industry after PSO. Having more than 850 retail stations in more
than 330 cities, Shell has a 42% market share in the organized sector for lubricants and is
the largest foreign investor in Pakistan’s oil marketing sector with a total market share of
20%.
Shell Pakistan’s commercial fuels business has a lot of potential for growth and its aviation
business supplies fuel to 6 major airports across Pakistan.
4
Current Ratio Trend for the years 2014-2018
Liquidity Ratios
0.9
0.85 Current Ratio
0.8
times
0.75
0.7
0.65 The Current Ratio for Shell Pakistan limited is
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 below the ideal range and remains so for the
Profitability Ratios
5
GP Margin
Gross Profit Margin Ratio
10
Over the period of these 5 years, GP margin has
8
continuously increased until 2017 after which there
6 was a slight decrease in 2018. During 2015, even
4 though net revenues fell by 21% (from Rs.
2 250,784,741,000 to Rs. 197,128,351,000). This was
0 due to decrease in export as well as local sales.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
However, the company managed to increase the
Gross profits by reducing their Cost of Goods Sold by a higher proportion of 23.3% (from
243,203,242,000 to 186,533,476,000). There was a significant increase in the Gross Profit Margin from
3.02% to 5.37%. Similarly, in 2016, sales fell further by 14.9% and COGS reduced by 17.6% resulting in an
increase in GP margin by 2.98% to 8.35%. During 2017, the company was successful at changing the
trend of decreasing sales to a trend of increasing sales and reached the maximum GP margin at 8.81%.
However, in 2018, the sales were still increasing, this time, by even a higher rate of 10.3% but weren’t
enough to cover the increase in COGS (11%) due to which there was a slight decrease in the GP Margin
of just 0.5%. This increase in COGS was caused to higher level of finished products purchased and
opening stock of raw and packing materials during the year as mentioned in the notes.
6
Return on total assets (ROA)
12
Earnings before Tax Margin Ratio
10
8
6 EBT margin shows earnings of a company before
4
2 it pays tax as a percentage of net sales.
0
-2 Shell should consider the EBT margin as the
-4 flustuating trends indicate that the company is
not very stable.
However, there is improvement. In 2014, it
started with a negative value which the company
managed to increase by reducing their overall
costs. The EBT margin peaked in 2016 after which
finance costs increased leading to a lower EBT Margin.
This ratio measures how efficiently a company can covert the money spent to purchase assets into net
income or profit. The ratios of 2014 and 2018 show that Shell was not efficient at all in converting their
asset purchases into net income, instead they have a ratio that is -2.55 times and -2.60 times
7
respectively, meaning that they were perhaps not
Return on common equity managing their assets well enough. However, this
50 same ratio was at its peak in 2016 at a level 11.11
40 times showing that the firm’s overall business and
30
20 use of all assets was well managed and efficient in
10 recovering its purchasing costs. This was due to an
0 increase in sales and the overall growth in
-10
-20
consumption of petroleum in the years 2016-
-30 2017.
The Return on Common Equity ratio shows the return Shell gets from its total equity (ROE) that is the
ability of the firm to generate profits from its shareholder’s investments. The graph shows how the
return on equity increased from 2014 till 2016 (-16.71 to 42.51 respectively) but then it declined in the
years 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 and came down to a value of -20 times in 2018. This shows that from
2014 to 2018, apart from the fluctuations, the ratio got worse by around 4 times. For the firm this is a
threat to future investors because it indicates that the firm is not that efficient and productive in
converting the equity they invest into net income and generating profits. Although, the competitor,
PSO’s ROE ratio has declined over these years it is still very high compared to Shell being at a value of
20.36 times in 2018. This would cause the investors to lay their trust more into PSO and invest in it
more, some might even sell their shares. PSO is the leader of the Petroleum industry in Pakistan and
Shell follows it.
The two ratios, ROA and ROE, show how efficiently the firm uses its assets and the equity shareholders
invest in it, however, they cannot be used to analyze and comment on the total efficiency of the firm
because it is a result of many things for example sales, gross profit margin etc.
10
5
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 8
YEARS
period from 2014 till 2016. That was due to a fall in sales and even though cost of products sold followed
the sales, the inventory fell significantly in 2016.
In the second period, during 2016 till 2018, the ratio recovered to 14x. This was because of a rise in
inventory levels and despite a fall in sales (in 2017) the cost of products sold remained constant and only
rose back in 2018 when sales rose again. In 2017, the cost remained nearly the same while the inventory
levels further dipped which caused the improvement in ratio. This improvement was eroded in 2018
when sales increased and despite the rise in cost, the rise in inventory levels was enough to bring the
ratio down to 14x.
11
Times Interest Earned Ratio
12
Market Value Ratios
Furthermore, the Dupont analysis gives the return on equity further so analyzing Shell it shows that in
the initial year of 2014, there was an extremely less value of -19.4, which however rose to 19.8 in the
following year perhaps due to increase in sales and a better net profit margin. It again showed an
upward trend and came to a very high value of 54.4 that shows that in 2016, Shell was getting a very
high return on equity due to remarkable sales as well as a high profit margin and financial leverage.
However, after 2016, it shows a downward trend, as the graph below shows, and lands to a very low
value of -23.11 in 2018 as the sales decreased.
13
This negative trend questions the performance and effectiveness of the company, in maintaining
stockholder interests. This trend will discourage investors and create an adverse brand image.
14
period stopping at 0.39x in 2018. This reflects the poor liquidity position and shows that the company is
facing a serious liquidity crisis.
It also shows that PSO’s management was able to significantly control its liquidity position during the
falling period of sales (2015-2016) but later when it bounced back up, it did not compromise its liquidity.
We see a rising trend in both the firm’s ratio over the 5 year period and this is most likely in an effort to
increase their respective sales after the low sale period of 2015-2016.
RETURN ON ASSETS:
The ROA for Shell started at a negative 2.55% in 2014. Over the period of 5 years it climbed as high as
11.11 (2016) but fell back to a negative 2.6% in 2018. In comparison, PSO was able to maintain a more
steady return on total assets, even though it fluctuated. Overall, PSO’s performance in selling and
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utilizing its assets effectively is shown clearly that despite the decline in ROA from 5.58% to 3.84%, there
was not a single year where it reported a negative return on total assets.
RETURN ON EQUITY:
The Return on Equity for PSO started with a high figure of 53.3% in 2014 but saw a gradual decline to
20.3% in 2018. In comparison, Shell’s ROE started at negative 16% in 2014, climbed to more than 40% in
2016 but fell by a huge margin to a negative 20%.
This fluctuation in ROE occurs because of the fluctuation in sales level during the years 2015-2016.
However, this ratio again proves PSO’s effective utilization of its total equity as compared to Shell which
not only experienced far more fluctuations but also did not deliver as high a return as PSO.
Another reason for this is possibly because of a lack of control in operations and trade by Shell as its cost
of goods sold remained proportionately high. ROE of shell was further eroded by its failure to control its
fixed costs.
If we observe the times interest earned ratio for both the firms, we see that PSO’s TIE ratio has
significantly improved from 4.39 to 6.2 by the end of the period. In comparison, Shell’s TIE ratio
generally was far more than PSO’s TIE ratio on average for the period of 5 years. However, it was also far
more volatile whereas PSO’s ratio consistently and gradually rose, Shell’s ratio surged and dipped during
the period.
A possible reason for PSO having a low ratio can be due to high financing costs whereas Shell has a
comparatively lower financing cost.
16
FAT ratio declined by approximately 25% over the 5
DuPont Analysis - Shell years, whereas Shell’s ratio lost more than 50% of its
60 value.
50
40
30 DUPONT ANALYSIS:
20
10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The Dupont Analysis shows the return on equity for a
-10
-20 firm. It combines net profit margin, financial leverage
-30 and return on assets to determine how profitable a
firm is and why.
The dupont analysis for Shell started at a low ratio of -19.4 (2014) but climbed to 54.4 (2016) and fell to
-23.1 (2018). This indicates that the return on equity is unstable and fluctuates greatly every year.
Overall, there has been a trend of Return on assets falling during this time period and it adversely affects
the Return on equity. Moreover, the improvement in ratio came due to a rise in NP margin over the
years and as it deteriorated, so did the return on equity.
Lastly, the company’s financial leverage remained largely stable in 2014 and 2015 at above 6 but falls
during 2016 and 2017 to approximately 3.8. This fall comes in despite the betterment of ratio of return
on equity. The financial leverage climbs back up above 7 and still the return on equity falls as net profit
margin fell.
On the other hand, PSO shows that their return on equity in 2014 was very high with a value of 37.37,
however it fell even more than 50% by 2016 and came to a value of 16.12 probably because of the fall in
sales due to which the net profit and return on total assets also fell. However, there was an upward
trend till it reached 25.6 in 2017 and then fell again in 2018 to 17.9. This could have because of high
financial leverage and the stabilizing net profit margin as the sales rose in 2017, however they fell again.
Overall the DuPont analysis shows that the return on equity of PSO is a lot better than that of Shell and
it is an overall more stable company that uses it equity more efficiently.
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