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World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

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World Development
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

Are we underestimating urban poverty?


Paula Lucci a, Tanvi Bhatkal b,⇑, Amina Khan a
a
Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom
b
Overseas Development Institute and University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Data collection methods and poverty measures have not caught up with the reality of an increasingly
Accepted 11 October 2017 urbanised world; as a result, urban poverty may be underestimated. This has important implications
Available online 29 November 2017 for targeting interventions and allocating resources in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Several problems affect the measurement of urban poverty: definitions of ‘slum’ settlements vary widely,
Keywords: data collection may undercount slum populations, insufficient data disaggregation may conceal intra-city
Urban poverty disparities, and common indicators and assumptions may be ill-suited to assessing both income and mul-
Slums
tidimensional poverty in urban contexts. However, not enough is known about the extent to which these
Data
Urbanisation
issues affect the resulting estimates. This paper contributes to the existing literature by illustrating the
Measurement scale of the bias associated with common practices in measuring urban poverty at different stages of
Global South the production of poverty estimates. The analysis draws on selected examples in the literature alongside
new analysis of data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Household Income and Expenditure
Surveys. The article also provides recommendations on how to address each of these problems to
improve urban poverty measurement.
Ó 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction (Gibson, 2015). It is therefore unsurprising that these tools are in


many aspects inadequate to account for living standards in an
With urbanisation currently accelerating in many countries, it is era of increasing urbanisation.
becoming increasingly important to raise the profile and improve Many argue that urban poverty is commonly underestimated
our understanding of deprivation in urban contexts. (for example, Mitlin & Satterthwaite, 2013; Parnell, 2005; Sabry,
Over the last two decades, there has been a growing discussion 2010; Tacoli, 2007; Thanh, Anh, & Phuong, 2013). Poor urban pop-
about the ‘urbanisation of poverty’. Ravallion, Chen, and Sangraula ulations, such as those living in informal settlements, are often
(2008) made the first decomposition of the international dollar-a- undercounted, and the indicators used to measure basic depriva-
day poverty estimates by rural and urban location. They high- tions are not providing policy-makers with the information they
lighted that although urbanisation plays a positive role in overall need to formulate and implement policy to tackle urban depriva-
poverty reduction, the urban share of poverty is rising. Further, tions (Lucci & Bhatkal, 2014).
the UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) – the only Despite well-known measurement problems (Carr-Hill, 2013;
source of internationally comparable data on slum dwellers – esti- Mitlin & Satterthwaite, 2013), not enough is known about their
mates that 881 million people or 30% of developing countries’ scale. Using selected examples from the literature and new analy-
urban populations live in slums (UN-Habitat, 2014), and that this sis of Demographic and Health Survey and Household and Income
could rise to 3 billion or 60% by 2050 (UN DESA, 2013, 2014). This Expenditure data, this paper contributes to the existing literature
rise in the urban share of poverty notwithstanding, data collection by estimating the scale of the bias in urban poverty measurement
methods and poverty measures have not caught up with the reality at different stages of the production of poverty estimates.
of an increasingly urbanised world. In fact, household surveys – the While discussions about data may appear very technical, they
main instruments to collect data on poverty – have not changed are also inherently political and have important implications for
much in 30–40 years, when the focus was mostly on rural poverty interventions. If current estimates underestimate deprivation in
urban contexts, then governments’ and donors’ priorities and
resource allocations may neglect pockets of deprivation in cities.
⇑ Corresponding author. A focus on the persistence of deprivations and intra-city inequali-
E-mail addresses: p.lucci@odi.org (P. Lucci), tb563@cam.ac.uk (T. Bhatkal), ties in urban areas is salient in the context of increasing calls for
a.khan@odi.org (A. Khan).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.022
0305-750X/Ó 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
298 P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

data-driven policy and progress tracking in international develop- eral organisations as they consider resource allocation across
ment discourse and governmental attention on ‘smart’ cities. countries. This was the definition used to monitor the ‘slum’ target
The discussions in this article are relevant to ongoing interna- in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG 7, Target 11) and now
tional debates about implementing and monitoring the new Sus- for SDGs (Goal 11, Target 11.1) (IAEG, 2016). It also provides a com-
tainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Target 11.1 on prehensive picture of housing and basic service deprivations in
‘ensuring access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing urban settings, as a household lacking even one of the conditions
and basic services and upgrade slums’, as well as the New Urban described above would classify as a slum.
Agenda (the outcome of the 2016 Habitat III conference).1 Our anal- However, this definition, while comprehensive, is not suffi-
ysis also speaks to the ‘Leave No One Behind’ agenda, which posits ciently nuanced to distinguish different types of housing depriva-
that progress on the SDGs should include the hard to reach; this tions needed to inform policymaking. For example, it does not
includes marginalised urban communities, such as slum dwellers. include density criteria for a settlement, whereas a high density
This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 discusses how of households is a characteristic commonly associated with infor-
estimates of the number of slum dwellers, arguably a high propor- mal settlements. This means that, under the UN definition, a singu-
tion of the urban poor, vary according to the definitions used. Sec- lar household living in a precarious building in the inner city would
tion 3 sets out some of the problems with the data that are qualify as a slum household.
currently collected, particularly the undercounting of slum dwell- In principle, this would be addressed if the total number of slum
ers and the lack of disaggregated data beyond urban averages. Sec- households could incorporate density criteria and the type of
tions 4 and 5 discuss how commonly used indicators and building structure (e.g. to distinguish between a slum settlement
assumptions can underestimate monetary and multidimensional or inner city tenement). Further disaggregation by the number of
poverty, respectively, in urban contexts. Section 6 concludes by deprivations that a household experiences would also provide a
summarising our findings and providing recommendations to more complete picture of the depth of deprivations. In fact, it is
address the gaps that have been identified. common for some of these deficiencies to be experienced jointly,
which can make addressing standalone issues (such as drinking
water without sanitation) somewhat problematic.2
2. Problems related to definitions of ‘slums’ Finally, urban deprivations across regional and country contexts
are often distinct, and global generalisations can be unhelpful
It is hard to discuss urban poverty without focusing on slums, as (Gilbert, 2013). Thus, while the UN-Habitat definition and numbers
they often include most poor people in cities in the developing have been used to monitor global voluntary commitments such as
world. The term ‘slum’ has been used to cover a range of deficien- the MDGs and now the SDGs, countries usually deploy their own
cies in housing and basic services, and different organisations – definitions of slum settlements in their own planning.
even within a country – often use varying definitions. In this sec- Take the example of India: In 2001, the country identified slums
tion, we show how this variation makes it difficult to measure in the Census for the first time. Slums were identified at the neigh-
the number of people living in these areas. bourhood rather than household level, and defined as areas satisfy-
UN-Habitat has developed a cross-nationally applicable defini- ing any of the following three criteria: (1) all areas in a town or city
tion. A set of people living under the same roof in urban areas that notified as ‘slum’ by state or local governments and union territory
lack one or more of the following are defined to be living in slums administration under any Act, including a ‘Slum Act’; (2) all areas
or informal settlements (UN Habitat, 2016): recognised as ‘slum’ by state or local government and union terri-
tory administration that may not have been formally notified as
 access to improved water services which includes piped con- ‘slum’; or (3) a compact area with a population of at least 300 peo-
nection to house or plot; public stand pipe serving no more than ple or around 60–70 households of poorly built and congested ten-
5 households; protected spring; rain water collection; bottle ements in an unhygienic environment, usually without adequate
water; bore hole; and protected dug well infrastructure and proper sanitary and drinking water facilities.3
 access to improved sanitation services which includes direct The first two criteria are based on administrative designations
connection to public sewer; proper flush latrine; pit latrine with and require official recognition of neighbourhoods as slums by
slab; ventilated improved pit latrine; and direct connection to local or state governments. However, these definitions are inher-
septic tank ently arbitrary, as these governments employ different criteria
 sufficient living space, with fewer than four people per habit- (MHUPA, 2010) due to varying incentives (for instance, including
able room slums on official lists has resource implications as municipal
 structural quality or durability of housing that is built in a non- authorities are meant to provide notified and recognised slums
hazardous location and has a permanent and adequate struc- with basic services). The third criterion identifies areas as slum set-
ture able to protect inhabitants from extreme climatic tlements based on measurable attributes, using similar conditions
conditions to the UN-Habitat definition but with the inclusion of a density cri-
 security of tenure that enables them to live with security, peace terion. These slums are often inhabited by newer migrants, and
and dignity – this is included in the definition but not in slum generally have poorer access to basic facilities as authorities have
measurement due to insufficient data (UN-Habitat, 2016). no obligations on provision (IIPS & Macro International, 2007).
However, the definition does not define the attributes it specifies
The main advantage of this definition is that it allows for inter- (e.g. what constitutes an ‘unhygienic environment’) (Patel,
national comparisons, which are of interest to donors and multilat- Koizumi, & Crooks, 2014; Risbud, 2010).

1
Habitat III refers to a global summit, formally the UN Conference on Housing and
2
Sustainable Urban Development, held in Quito, Ecuador, on 17–20 October 2016. The One other criticism of the slum definition used for the MDG target (and now for
UN has called the conference, the third in a series that began in 1976, to ‘reinvigorate’ the SDGs) is that it overlaps with the water and sanitation targets (Gilbert, 2014).
3
the global political commitment to the sustainable development of towns, cities and This definition was amended following from the Pronab Sen Committee
other human settlements, both rural and urban. The product of that reinvigoration, (Government of India, 2010) to reduce the density requirement to 20 households,
along with pledges and new obligations, is referred to as the New Urban Agenda. That making it less restrictive. This definition is used by the National Sample Survey
agenda will set a new global strategy around urbanisation for the next two decades Organisation in household surveys; however, the 2011 national Census used the 2001
(Citiscope, 2015). definition.
P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310 299

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 21 50 46 63 35 41 55 20 48 57 64 76 36 55 17 66 19 74
0
Delhi Meerut Kolkata Indore Mumbai Nagpur Hyderabad Chennai

Census (2001 definion) UN Habitat definion (no tenure) UN Habitat definion (including tenure)

Fig. 1. Share of population classified as ‘slum’ in Indian cities, by definition, 2005–2006. Source: Authors’ calculation based on IIPS and Macro International (2007).

The neighbourhood approach identifies slum settlements more inition could misclassify better-off households in slums as slum
clearly. However, it has its own limitations. One criticism refers to households. Further, the way adequate sanitation is defined is
the threshold used: the criterion of a minimum of 60–70 clustered likely to vary across the two, with UN-Habitat having a more ambi-
households fails to recognise smaller slum settlements. These are tious definition. Finally, the Census definition is more subjective
usually more recently formed and house particularly disadvan- and requires recognition from government, which could give them
taged households (Patel et al., 2014). This is one reason that this an incentive to undercount slums (Agarwal, 2011).
criterion was amended to 20 households following recommenda-
tions by the Pronab Sen Committee (Government of India, 2010).
In fact, given the particular vulnerabilities smaller, recently 3. Problems with the underlying data
formed, settlements may face, it may be useful to consider them
as a separate category (i.e. differentiating settlements by their size This section highlights two problems with the underlying data
and/or year of formation). used to generate urban poverty estimates. First, we describe how
In addition, this approach ignores differences in housing depri- undercounting of slum dwellers can happen for several practical
vation within a neighbourhood, which could be significant. As a and political reasons, and, more fundamentally, because of unrep-
result, better-off households would be classified as slum house- resentative sampling frames. Secondly, we discuss how the lack of
holds if the majority of their neighbours had inadequate infrastruc- granular data on slums and reliance on urban averages conceals
ture (Patel et al., 2014). To some extent, this is an inevitable intra- and inter-city disparities. In both cases, we provide new
consequence of a neighbourhood-based approach, but there could analysis to estimate the scale of the problem.
be ways around it. For example, the deprivations experienced by
households within slum settlements should be distinguishable. 3.1. Undercounting
The way a slum is defined can have a huge impact on estimates
of the number of slum dwellers. For instance, Fig. 1 presents our Household surveys provide the data used to estimate income
calculations of slum estimates using the UN-Habitat and the and multidimensional poverty in urban areas, and the number of
national Census definitions for eight Indian cities for which the slum dwellers (Census data are also used for the latter). Yet these
Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) (2005–2006) provides rep- sources can undercount marginalised urban populations like those
resentative data. In half of these cities, we find that the proportion living in informal settlements (Mitlin & Satterthwaite, 2013). The
of households estimated to be living in slums using UN-Habitat’s homeless, those living in their workplace and mobile groups like
definition4–6 is more than two times higher – and up to four times seasonal and temporary migrant workers, who often live in infor-
higher – than that measured using the definition from the national mal settlements, are often missed from the data (Carr-Hill, 2013;
Census. Deshingkar, 2006; Sabry, 2010).
Further, in the two cities that have tenure security data avail-
able (which is included in UN-Habitat’s conceptual definition but
not in its measurement, as there is typically insufficient data) this 3.1.1. Populations missing for practical and political reasons
share could be even higher, although the difference is not statisti-
cally significant. This suggests tenure insecurity may not overlap There are practical reasons why household surveys may under-
fully with the other deprivations. estimate the poverty rates in slum areas. For instance, certain areas
There are a number of possible explanations for the large differ- may be included in sampling frames but in practice may be missed
ence between estimates. First, the Census definition includes a set- or not thoroughly covered by enumerators because they appear
tlement density criterion, whereas UN-Habitat does not, so the hostile and unsafe or are hard-to-reach – for example, places
latter definition would include households in deprived smaller where water is dirty, defecation is out in the open, sewers are
neighbourhoods or inner city tenements. That said, the Census def- uncovered or have reached capacity, and sanitation and hygiene
are low.7
In addition, a large number of the urban poor often live on the
4
The DHS data identified those households in the survey sample that were outskirts of the city, particularly around megacities, and may be
designated as slums as per the 2001 Census. We compare these to those recognised as counted as ‘‘rural” (Sabry, 2010). This concern is salient in the con-
slum households using the UN-Habitat definition based on available data on housing text of urban development in megacities of the global South that
conditions and access to basic services.
5
has displaced poorer populations to the outskirts, either as a result
The DHS 2005–06 did not ask how many households shared a water source so we
consider all shared sources as improved.
6 7
Following from WHO accepted standards, we exclude children under 12 months, Skype interview with Erica Hagen, Ground Truth Initiative/Map Kibera, December
and count those between the ages of one and 10 years as half a person. 2015.
300 P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

of market forces (Roy, 2011; Yntiso, 2008) or resettlement due to from 88 to 176 million people.10 This is a sizeable number which
urban redevelopment policies (Desai, 2012; Roy, 2005). underscores how large the problem of undercounting may be
Political incentives also sometimes render populations in slum globally.
settlements invisible in the data, particularly when politicians At a micro level, contestations over the official and unofficial
and other government officials frame definitions of slums in line numbers of people who live in Kibera in Kenya illustrates the
with their political motivations. Thus, Yelling (1986: 1) declares potential for undercounting. Kibera consists of 13 villages; it is 5
that a slum is ‘‘a term in the discourse of politics rather than scien- km southwest of the centre of Nairobi and covers about 2.5 km2.
ce”. If public land or land owned by politicians is occupied by slum By some population estimates, it is ‘the largest slum in Africa’;
dwellers under tacit informal arrangements that do not appear in by others it is second to Soweto in South Africa (Marras, 2009).
any official documents, rising land values or disputed land owner- Yet available data on its population are quite unreliable and highly
ship can motivate politicians to use slum dwellers’ invisibility to contested: we simply do not know its ‘true’ population is, or the
evict or resettle them forcefully and without compensation.8 rate at which it is growing.
Of course, the picture is nuanced and in some instances govern- Recent population estimates range from about 170,070 (KNBS,
ments have the opposite motivation. For instance, governments 2009) to 270,000 (MKP, 2009). In 2008, the Map Kibera Project
seeking slum dwellers’ political support may have an incentive to (MKP) team conducted a door-to-door census of the population in
make them visible and address their needs,9 while local govern- Kianda (one of the 13 villages) alongside a mapping of its physical
ments appealing to higher levels of governments for resources may features. Extrapolating on the basis of Kianda’s population
face incentives to over-count if resource allocation is linked to the (15,219),11 the MKP estimated Kibera’s total population to be
number of slum dwellers being reported. Moreover, changing polit- between 235,000 and 270,000 (Marras, 2009; MKP, 2009). In 2009,
ical priorities may lead to policy inconsistencies over time and a the KEYOBS RESPOND project12 used satellite images of built struc-
changing use of politicised slum numbers (Ghertner, 2010; Sheikh tures in Kibera to estimate population per structure and reported that
& Banda, 2015). the number ranged between 199,959 and 205,108 (Maron, 2010).
Slum dwellers too may have competing motivations. They may Both the MKP and the KEYOBS RESPOND project have published their
insist on being counted so they can then exert pressure on govern- methodology, and their estimates are perceived as credible (Maron,
ments to respond to their needs, as demonstrated by the many 2010). We contrast Census numbers with those from these two
enumerations carried out by slum federations (Patel, Baptist, & sources; if we regard the latter as realistic estimates of Kibera’s popu-
D’Cruz, 2012). On the other hand, they may wish to be invisible lation, then the 2009 Census (170,070) undercounted the population
if they fear eviction. of Kibera by 30,000–100,000 people or by 18–59% (see Table 1).

3.1.2. Populations missing because of unrepresentative sampling


frames 3.2. Lack of granularity

Survey sampling frames are based on Census data, and there- Another problem in using household surveys to estimate urban
fore will replicate any biases in them (Carr-Hill, 2013; Lucci & poverty is that sample sizes are often too small. This means break-
Bhatkal, 2014). Although Censuses are meant to enumerate the downs are available only for broad geographical areas, such as
entire population of a country by design, they too may leave out rural/urban areas or regions (Lucci & Bhatkal, 2014), and not for
certain populations for the same reasons described above in the cities, let alone slum areas. This means, there is no information
case of household surveys (Carr-Hill, 2013). about development outcomes and access to services among mar-
More fundamentally, Census data are collected only every 10 ginalised groups within cities or about differences between cities.
years; this means that, in places marked by rapid urbanisation We show that this lack of granularity matters by using DHS data
where the population of informal settlements is changing, Census to estimate the difference in deprivation levels within cities. In par-
data can very quickly become out of date. For example, a World ticular, we compute the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)13
Bank poverty assessment conducted for Cambodia in 2006 voiced for five Indian cities that are projected to be among the top 30 largest
the concern that informal settlements had grown since the sam- urban agglomerations globally in 2030 (UN DESA, 2014) and for
pling frame was constructed in 1999 and therefore the poverty fig- which city level data are available. This exercise demonstrates that
ures might understate their scale (World Bank Cambodia, 2006 in the poverty headcount ratio for slum households ranges from
Mitlin & Satterthwaite, 2013). This problem can be more acute in between nearly double to four times the ratio for non-slum house-
some countries, particularly conflict-ridden ones, where Censuses holds (Fig. 2). This illustrates how city averages conceal differences
have not been carried out for over 10 years. For instance, the latest within cities, and that these gaps vary considerably between cities.
Census in Pakistan will be conducted in 2017, after a gap of 19
years. 10
We updated Carr-Hill’s (2013) estimates of slum dwellers being left out of
Censuses and out of sampling frames of household surveys by using latest UN-Habitat
figures (2014).
3.1.3. The scale of undercounting: selected examples 11
Given that the type, dimension and distribution of the buildings observed in
Kianda are typical of all of Kibera, the MKP team estimated the population of the
By definition, it is difficult to quantify the scale of undercount- entire slum by multiplying the population density found in Kianda (95,120 people per
ing, and most sources and estimates produced at international and km2) by the area of Kibera (2.3–2.5 km2), while factoring in an estimated error of 7%
(Marras, 2009; MKP, 2009).
national levels likely face this limitation to some extent. Using esti- 12
The RESPOND Humanitarian Global Mapping Services Project was part of the
mates as in Carr-Hill (2013), we find that, if one in every 10 slum Copernicus programme of the European Commission (EC). It aimed to use geographic
dwellers or one in every five slum dwellers is uncounted in global information to improve the work of the European and international humanitarian
slum population figures, the number of slum dwellers being left community. KEYOBS, a Belgian enterprise, was one of the project’s partners.
13
out of Censuses and sampling frames of household surveys ranges This analysis draws on city-level data from the latest Demographic and Health
Surveys. The MPI considers outcomes on three dimensions: health, education and
living standards. A household is considered poor if it is deprived in one third or more
8
Personal interview with Arif Hasan, Chairperson, Orangi Pilot Project-Research & of the weighted indicators considered (details on indicators in Table A1 in Annex 1).
Training Institute, Karachi, November 2013. Note that these shares are likely to be underestimates as some of the indicators
9
Skype interview with Erica Hagen, Ground Truth Initiative/Map Kibera, December included in the MPI may not always be appropriate for urban areas (discussed in
2015. Section 5).
P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310 301

Table 1
Contestations over Kibera’s population.

Type of instrument to collect data Source and type of source Year Slum population estimates Differences between Differences between
official and alternative official and alternative
sources sources in percentage
Kenya Population and Housing KNBS, Government 2009 170,070 N/A N/A
Census
Satellite image analysis of built KEYOBS RESPOND, Alternative 2009 199,959–205, 108 30,000–35,000 18–21%
structures in Kibera
Door-to-door Census; mapping MKP, Alternative 2008 235,000–270,000 65,000–100,000 38–59%
of physical features of Kianda village

Sources: Maron (2010), Marras (2009), Marx, Stoker, and Suri (2013), MKP (2009).

Non-slum Slum
35%
30%
30%
Share of populaon (%)

25%
25% 23%

20% 18%
16%
15%
10%
10% 8% 8%
7% 7%

5%

0%
Delhi Kolkata Mumbai Hyderabad Chennai

Fig. 2. MPI headcount ratio by type of residence for selected cities, % of population (2005-06). Note: More details included in Table A3 in Annex 1. UN-Habitat’s definition is
used to identify slums. Note that all the issues discussed in this paper (undercounting, including an outdated Census sampling frame, and the appropriateness of indicators –
including those within the living standards dimension of the MPI, which we discuss in Section 5) also apply to these numbers. Source: Authors’ calculation based on IIPS and
Macro International (2007).

4. Problems with monetary poverty measures in urban contexts where poverty is highest and evaluate the impacts of interventions
or of external shocks. If the underlying assumptions are more
In addition to data coverage, the assumptions and methods attuned to rural contexts, then the estimates produced for urban
used to calculate poverty also impact estimates. In this section, areas could be misleading.
we focus on some problems related to calculating income/ To compute a poverty line, it is necessary first to identify a min-
expenditure-based poverty in urban contexts. imum basket of goods and services that separate the poor and the
Poverty levels are typically estimated by counting the number non-poor and then to price that basket. Here, we focus on how the
of people who fall below a common threshold (or poverty line). methods used to estimate income poverty may misrepresent urban
Drawing on household surveys, governments set a minimum level poverty in each of these stages. First, we discuss how food and non-
of welfare based on income or expenditure, below which individu- food allowances are accounted for, arguing that this may misrepre-
als are classified as poor.14 The most commonly used method to sent consumption patterns of the urban poor. Second, we consider
establish this minimum poverty line is to calculate the cost of a ‘min- how prices for a minimum consumption basket are derived, show-
imum food basket’ needed to achieve a minimum calorific intake ing that this may not take into consideration differences in the cost
(around 2100 calories). Typically, the food basket is constructed of living between urban and rural areas, and cities of different
based on the consumption of a reference group of low-income sizes.
households with some allowances made for expenditure on non-
food items. Often, two poverty lines are calculated: a lower one
focused on the non-food spending of those households whose total 4.1. The composition of food and non-food allowances in the poverty
spending equals the food poverty line and an upper poverty line line
which uses a higher non-food allowance calculated from the food
budget share of households whose food spending exactly meets the 4.1.1. Outdated questionnaires do not reflect current food consumption
food poverty line (Gibson, 2007). Price data needed to calculate the habits
costs of the minimum consumption basket are gathered through Urbanisation can alter diets and eating habits, and this may not
either the same survey or the Consumer Price Index (CPI).15 These be properly captured by questionnaires gathering the information
poverty lines are used to monitor poverty trends, target resources on food expenditure needed to estimate poverty. As Gibson (2015)
points out, many Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys
14
Often the consumption or income an individual needs is adjusted based on their (HCES) record food consumption by providing long lists of ingredi-
age and household size. ents such as rice, wheat and flour and asking how many units are
15
In addition, the World Bank sets an international poverty line based on the consumed and how much money is spent at the household level,
national poverty lines of 15 of the poorest countries. This was updated in 2015 to assuming households eat communally. While this made sense in
$1.90 in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms – to make comparisons across
countries. These are used to monitor trends for international commitments to reduce
the early 1990s when the majority of the poor population was still
extreme poverty and by donors and international organisations to monitor progress rural and likely to eat meals together, it is less appropriate for the
across countries and identify areas of highest need. urban poor, who are more likely to eat independently of other
302 P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

household members, either buying street food or purchasing meals Transport can also represent a substantial share of the urban
to eat at home. poor’s budgets. In Harare, the urban poor spend more than a quar-
Consequently, there are two related problems. The first is that ter of their disposable income on transport; in Kampala, they
survey questionnaires have greater detail for food ingredients than spend almost half (World Bank & IMF, 2013). Other costs, such as
purchased meals. For instance, Dupriez, Smith, and Troubat (2014) health care and medicines, school fees and school materials and
show in their analysis of HCES interview questionnaires that the fuel, can also be high in some contexts. Of course, rural households
average number of groups in the food list is 110 but an average face many of these costs, but because of the concentration of peo-
of just three of these are for meals and other forms of food eaten ple and high demand in cities, particularly large ones, these tend to
away from home. Along similar lines, Bangladesh’s Income and be higher in urban areas.
Expenditure Survey in 2010 shows 129 categories for ingredients Further, a study by Chibuye (2011) calculated the costs of food
compared to 13 for dining out (authors’ analysis of Bangladesh and non-food needs in a series of cities in Zambia and compared it
Bureau of Statistics, 2011). Moreover, information on quantities with the expenditure used in the official figures in 2006. Her calcu-
is often missing, rendering it impossible to translate this informa- lations for a poverty line vary from the official figures in that she
tion to calories consumed (Gibson, 2015). includes housing and more generous, realistic allowances for fuel,
The second problem is that this information is often recorded at soap, electricity and water. Her results showed non-food needs in
the household level rather than for each person. The latter would Lusaka that were 10 times higher (K996,100 or approximately
be more appropriate for urban contexts in which household mem- $1.50 a day for a household of six) than that in official figures
bers may eat outside the house. Reinforcing this point, Beegle, de (K88,709, approximately $0.13 per day); much of this increase
Weerdt, Friedman, and Gibson (2012)’s survey experiment in Tan- owed to housing needs. Her estimates also show the differences
zania shows that urban households report 29% lower consumption in expenditures between larger and smaller cities.
if surveyed with a household-level diary rather than a personal Our own analysis of Household Income and Expenditure Survey
one, while there was no difference for rural areas. The headcount for Bangladesh 2010 (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2011) also
poverty ratio was over 10 percentage points lower if a personal illustrates how urban poor households, particularly in metropoli-
diary rather than a household one (with frequent visits) was used. tan areas, spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on
The general implication is that levels of consumption in urban housing, electricity and transportation (Table 2). For example, poor
contexts are likely to be higher than currently reported, and that households in metropolitan areas spend on average a share of 10%,
current methods of accounting for food allowances may overesti- 9% and 15% of their total spending on rents, electricity and trans-
mate urban poverty. A further argument to this point is that in port fares compared to 2%, 3% and 8% nationwide.
urban areas with greater access to a variety of food, food baskets Given that poverty lines do not account properly for non-food
can be changed to minimise expenditure without compromising costs, Mitlin and Satterthwaite (2013) argue that the allowances
calorific intake. Thus, seasonal factors inherent in rural food con- made for non-food items are simply too small, meaning the pov-
sumption may be much weaker in urban areas. However, since erty line is set too low. A common way of calculating the cost of
all poverty estimates use fixed food baskets, this factor is ignored. non-food items is estimating how much those on/or close to the
Urban poverty would perhaps be lower if this were considered. poverty lines spend on these items. However, there are questions
as to whether taking the poor as the reference group for non-
food spending is appropriate, since they are unlikely to have the
4.1.2. Non-food allowances, central to urban poverty, are inadequately resources to afford essential non-food items. Sabry (2009) consid-
covered ers what the non-food allowance estimated by the World Bank
Another area where income poverty measures may misrepre- would buy in Greater Cairo, Egypt and finds that it would not be
sent urban poverty is in their treatment of non-food allowances. enough to cover even very inadequate housing, education and
While the monitoring of food purchases is a core part of all surveys, transport. In the case of India, Chandrasekhar and Montgomery
questionnaires vary in their inclusion of other important consump- (2010) conclude that the urban poverty line would require signifi-
tion items, such as housing, health, education, energy and water cant upward adjustment to account for costs of adequate housing.
(Chandy, 2013). Evidence suggests many such items are likely to
be more expensive for urban dwellers, such that excluding them 4.2. Accounting for price differentials
may underestimate urban poverty (Sabry, 2010).
In urban contexts, meeting non-food needs, such as housing The methods used to account for differences in the cost of living
(either rented or self-built) and other basic services (e.g. paying may also bias the measurement of urban poverty. Prices are
for safe water and toilets) can be very costly. Housing in particular needed to place a monetary value on the food basket and for
can represent a high share of the urban poor’s budgets but it is dif- non-food needs where allowances for the latter are made. Even
ficult to measure, particularly for owner occupiers (e.g. the infor- alternative methods to calculate a poverty line that require less
mation needed to measure it is often missing). In fact, in some information, such as the Food Energy Intake method,16 depend on
cases, because surveys do a poor job of accounting for the con- price information to adjust for differences in nominal expenditures
sumption of housing services, it is dropped from analyses between different areas. In addition, a price index is needed to calcu-
(Gibson, 2015). It is more straightforward to account for the costs late the change over time in the cost of reaching a poverty line
facing tenants, which are of course much higher in urban areas, (Gibson, 2007).
particularly large cities. There are, of course, variations in costs and prices across differ-
Similarly, poor households often pay higher rates to purchase ent locations, and therefore spatial price deflators are needed. As
water from informal providers. For instance, according to Citizen information on the composition of a minimum consumption bas-
Report Card (CRC) research in Kenya, urban households that ket is based on a reference group of low-income households, if dif-
obtained their water from a kiosk paid between two to five times ferences in costs of living between areas are ignored then
more per unit of water than those that received water through
the network (Twaweza, 2010; WSP, 2007). Sometimes the situa- 16
The food energy intake method is used when price information is unavailable, and
tion is even worse, for instance in Nairobi’s Kibera slum, where involves plotting expenditure (or income) per capita against food consumption (in
households paid up to 30 times more per unit compared with what calories per person per day) to identify the expenditure threshold at which a
middle- and higher-income residents paid (ibid.). household acquires enough food (Haughton & Khandker, 2009).
P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310 303

Table 2
Share of total household expenditure on selected non-food expenses in Bangladesh (2010).

Area Rent Electricity Transport fares**


* *
Poor Average Poor Average Poor* Average
Rural 0% 1% 1% 1% 7% 5%
Urban 1% 6% 5% 3% 7% 4%
Metropolitan 10% 21% 9% 4% 15% 6%
Total 2% 5% 3% 2% 8% 5%

Notes:
*
The poverty identification is based on the ’upper poverty line’ which provides for a non-food allowance equal to the average non-food expenditure of households whose
food consumption was equal to the food poverty line. In Bangladesh in 2010, this was separately produced for rural, urban and metropolitan areas of each division.
**
Transport fares includes household expenditure on bus, rickshaw/van, taxi/tempo/mishuk, boat/launch and train fares.
Source: authors’ calculation based on Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2011).

households from areas where prices are high, typically larger cities, data, is also likely to have an urban bias for some big countries like
are less likely to be included in the reference group (Gibson, 2007). China (Ravallion, 2014). In fact, for the 2005 round of PPPs (but not
Yet poverty lines do not always reflect these differences in the most recent round), Chen and Ravallion (2008) used adjust-
prices. From an analysis of poverty lines in 53 countries, Mitlin ments to address urban bias. This adjustment reduced poverty in
and Satterthwaite (2013) found that 12 countries did not make China by nearly half in 2005, from 26.4% to 15.6%.
any differentiation based on location. In seven it was not feasible Adjustments also occur at the national level, as in Latin Ameri-
to ascertain the approach taken to deal with price differentials; can countries, where urban bias is likely. The Socio-Economic Data-
nine differentiated between urban and rural only; and about half base for Latin America and the Caribbean (SEDLAC) database scales
of them (25) followed a more complex differentiation of prices up all rural incomes by 15% to account for urban–rural price differ-
(e.g. between urban centres of different sizes). ences (SEDLAC (Socio-Economic Database for Latin America, n.d.).
Furthermore, differences between prices may be based on dif- Views on the extent of urban bias in the more recent 2011 ICP
ferentials in food prices, whereas spatial differences for non-food round differ, with some (World Bank, 2015) suggesting it was
prices may be higher (Hentschel & Lanjouw, 1996). There is also much better at capturing rural prices than the 2005 round, partic-
a question about the availability of data for different items – for ularly with respect to China, India and Indonesia (Jolliffe & Beer
example most of the data on non-food items focus on goods and Prydz, 2015).
services found in shops or markets, with little information on Ultimately, to make more conclusive points about the impacts
transport, health care, water bills, housing and schooling expendi- of the price information used in urban poverty measurement, fur-
tures, which are all likely to be higher in urban areas, particularly ther work would be needed to consider in more detail the informa-
in larger cities. The CPI is based on average consumption, so there tion used in price surveys in different countries and the extent to
is also a question of whether it represents a typical poor person’s which it represents sub-national heterogeneity. But the main point
expenditure. remains: how urban (including differences between large and
Price information can be sourced from expenditure surveys smaller cities) and rural prices are treated and whether or not they
when these include information on quantities in addition to total are adjusted can make a big difference to the resulting estimates.
expenditure, but most commonly a price index like the CPI is used. A World Bank assessment for Ethiopia (2005, cited in Mitlin &
It is rare for the CPI to detail geographical differences, even in Satterthwaite, 2013) provides examples of how poverty estimates
developed countries like the UK or New Zealand, let alone in devel- can vary if locally specific poverty lines are used. While the govern-
oping countries, where price information is more incomplete ment estimated urban poverty at 33% in 1995 and 37% in 1999, the
(Gibson, 2007). Jolliffe (2006) shows how adjusting poverty mea- use of specific poverty lines that account for price differentials in
sures in the US to account for cost-of-living differences between different locations and household substitution of food bundles in
metro and non-metro areas reverses the common finding that pov- response to price changes puts these numbers at 32% and 46%.
erty is higher in non-metro areas. In fact, the author finds that The use of an upper urban poverty line puts these figures at 47%
metro poverty is greater than non-metro poverty in terms of and 70%. In this case, more detailed assessments of food and
prevalence, depth and severity over the entire period under study non-food costs of living in different areas resulted in an increase
(1991–2002). The author argues that this has implications for the in the numbers of urban residents estimated as having consump-
allocation of social assistance funds, which have tended to focus tion below the poverty line.
on non-metro areas. In short, monetary poverty measures can misrepresent urban
It is important to highlight that in some cases the CPI draws poverty, but the direction of the bias is less clear. While the way
more heavily on information in urban areas or big cities in different food allowances are accounted for may overstate urban poverty,
regions; in these instances, there may be an urban bias in the the incomplete accounting of non-food allowances is likely to
prices used (Chandy, 2013). In cases where poverty lines are con- underestimate it. Further, more granular price information would
structed using prices with an urban bias, the price information is be needed to account for costs of living in different areas, particu-
less likely to underestimate costs in urban areas (and to overstate larly between larger and smaller cities.
them in rural ones). Further, the extent to which the price informa-
tion draws on data from bigger and smaller urban areas could 5. Problems with indicators in multidimensional measures in
impact poverty numbers in larger and smaller cities. urban contexts
The World Bank’s international poverty line also often uses the
CPI at a national level to adjust changing prices over time to a Since the 1990s, the idea that poverty is multidimensional has
specific base year. These adjustments use urban and rural relative become widely recognised, with the UN and its agencies introduc-
prices only in the case of large countries like China and India; for ing wider interpretations of poverty. In principle, such multidi-
the others, national-level CPIs are used (World Bank, 2015). Fur- mensional measures of poverty should address some of the
ther, the price information used for conversions of poverty lines shortcomings of monetary poverty indicators in urban contexts,
into a PPP US dollar, the International Comparison Program (ICP) particularly limitations relating to capturing non-food needs by
304 P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

measuring outcomes in areas like housing, education and health as the cost of accessing water can sometimes constrain poor urban
directly. Yet some indicators used in common multidimensional dwellers.
measures may not be the most appropriate for dense urban con- For instance, a CRC exercise in Kenya in 2007 found that more
texts. To a large extent, the reason for the choice of these indicators than a third (36%) of poor households relied on water kiosks for
is the availability of comparable cross-national data. their water and typically made four to six trips a day to fetch water
In this section, we focus on indicators of access to basic infras- which, even when nearby, consumed a considerable amount of
tructure services and decent housing, which are salient depriva- time (Twaweza, 2010; WSP, 2007). In Nairobi, households spent
tions in urban contexts and constitute UN-Habitat’s definition of on average 54 min going to the kiosk in normal times, and more
a ‘slum’. Of course, several other dimensions of poverty – such as than twice that in times of water scarcity, while in Kisumu the sit-
education, health, and decent work (as the urban poor generally uation was worse: households relying on water kiosks spent
suffer from poor working conditions in the informal sector; Chen almost two hours (112 min) collecting water every day, and more
2005) – are also relevant and, crucially, are highly unequally dis- than three hours in times of scarcity (ibid.).
tributed within and between urban areas, but this lies beyond Similarly, the frequency of service poses a challenge. A survey of
the scope of the present paper.17 In any event, indicators of depriva- slums in Mumbai found that while only 4.5% of households needed
tions in dimensions such as health and education are less likely to to travel or wait 30 min or more to get water from a standpipe, an
require differentiation in urban and rural contexts. additional 17% could access the standpipes for less than two hours
a day (Bag, Seth, & Gupta, 2016).
Further, as discussed, accessing basic services such as water is
often expensive but the existing indicator does not consider afford-
5.1. Access to basic infrastructure services
ability. For instance, research across four cities – Harare (Zim-
babwe), Windhoek (Namibia), Blantyre (Malawi) and Dar es
Access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation is often
Salaam (Tanzania) found that accessing 50 litres per person per
measured as the proportion of people that have access to ‘im-
day of municipal water can cost households between 11% and the-
proved’ facilities as defined by the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring
oretically over 100% of their income (Mitlin & Walnycki, 2016).
Programme (JMP). Based on the JMP categorisation, the following
In the case of sanitation, the JMP identifies as improved sanita-
are considered as improved drinking water source: piped water
tion a flush toilet to piped sewer systems, septic tank or pit latrine;
into dwelling or yard/plot; public tap or standpipe; tubewell or
ventilated improved pit latrine; pit latrine with slab and compost-
borehole; protected dug well; protected spring; rainwater and bot-
ing toilet (WHO/UNICEF, 2015). Unlike drinking water, the JMP
tled water if water for non-drinking purposes is from an improved
definition of ‘improved’ access excludes facilities shared by two
source (UNICEF and World Health Organization, 2015).
or more households. This definition varied from that used by UN-
This means shared sources – such as a public tap – are consid-
Habitat to identify slum households, which does not impose
ered to be ‘improved’, which neglects the prevalence of higher
restrictions and considers shared facilities as ‘improved’ (UN-
demand and overcrowding in urban areas, particularly in dense
Habitat, 2016). Having said this, UN-Habitat previously only
settlements, where a public tap may be shared with hundreds
included those that were private or ‘shared by a reasonable num-
(Tacoli, McGranahan, & Satterthwaite, 2015). As a result, household
ber of households’ (UN-Habitat, 2003).
members may have to queue to access drinking water, spending
While, in principle, private facilities should be the standard to
considerable periods of time waiting for and carrying water, result-
aspire to, experts argue that in the short term, it is an unrealistic
ing in unsatisfactory access and inadequate supply.
expectation. Moreover, there are good examples of hygienic shared
Yet the majority of urban households that access improved
toilets (Mitlin, 2015). Community-driven sanitation solutions in
facilities have shared access. Of the 139 countries considered to
dense urban settlements provide an opportunity to come up with
have met the MDG target for access to water between 1990 and
the most appropriate design and technology, although they pose
2015, in over a quarter of them, less than half of the population
considerable challenges in implementation (McGranahan and
accessed piped water to their premises (WHO and UNICEF, 2015).
Mitlin, 2016).
For instance, in Nigeria, only 3% of the urban population had a
Currently, shared facilities are classified as ‘unimproved’ as they
water connection on their premises, although 81% was considered
are shared, suggesting these definitions need to be revisited (ibid.;
to have access to improved water.
WHO and UNICEF, 2015). Ideally, data and criteria would distin-
There has been some recent progress in measurement recognis-
guish between shared facilities that are hygienic and adequate
ing this problem. In 2008, the JMP introduced a four-rung ladder to
and those that are not, but definitions currently used are not
track progress on these indicators in a more refined manner. In the
nuanced enough to allow for this type of distinction.
case of water, the JMP identifies ‘piped water on premises’ and
Other facilities considered ‘improved’ may not necessarily be
‘other improved drinking water sources’ as two categories of
adequate for good health in dense urban settlements. For example,
improved water sources (UNICEF and World Health Organization,
toilets that connect to a septic tank or pit latrines may work well in
2015). In addition, it specifies that an ‘improved’ source ‘‘by the
many rural contexts or low-density urban areas where they can be
nature of its construction and when properly used, adequately pro-
emptied regularly and safely or there is space to build additional
tects the source from outside contamination”. UN-Habitat uses a
pits. However, they may be poor alternatives in dense urban con-
similar definition in its criteria to identify slum households, but
texts (Graham & Polizzotto, 2013). For instance, pit latrines in
has now proposed considering water from a public tap as improved
urban areas fill up quickly, and maintenance can be difficult
only if it is shared by five or fewer households (UN-Habitat, 2016).
(Sutcliffe & Bannister, 2014). In many slum settlements, when they
Nonetheless, neither of these revised definitions consider
are not regularly re-sludged, storage can fill up, rendering them
whether and the extent to which people can access water in prac-
unusable – and harming health outcomes. The most effective sys-
tice. The amount of water and times at which it is available as well
tem for collecting and disposing of waste in high-density urban
contexts is a sewer system, with wastewater treatment
17
Another area which is important for poverty measurement that is beyond the (Satterthwaite, 2014). Local, decentralised sanitation solutions
scope of this paper is subjective well-being and perceptions of poverty (Ravallion,
2012; Pradhan and Ravallion, 2000; Kingdon & Knight, 2006). Multidimensional
have worked well in some circumstances to address environmental
poverty indicators that incorporate subjective well-being offer to consider and health challenges, but these have largely taken place on a small
prioritise dimensions of well-being that poor people value.
P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310 305

scale and require further research to be measured and classified as In addition, dwellings may not have sufficient living space for
‘improved’ sources. all members. In addition to overcrowding, insufficient space some-
Fig. 3 illustrates the difference that varying the sanitation indi- times limits households’ options for basic services and housing
cators can make to the measures of access to sanitation in urban improvements. For instance, Bag et al. (2016) find that small plot
areas. We consider four different categories: flush latrines to piped sizes of 25 square yards or less in ‘relocated colonies’ in Delhi mean
sewer systems (not shared); the current JMP definition; flush latri- households with poor provision of sewerage systems are unable to
nes to piped sewer systems allowing for shared facilities; and mod- construct their own sanitation facilities, which forces them to use
ified JMP (allowing shared facilities with up to five households). paid public toilets.
Differences in access can be sizeable depending on the criteria In the five Indian cities in our analysis, the majority of house-
used. For instance, in Kolkata in India 47% of people were identified holds have improved floors, and even when incorporating durabil-
as having improved sanitation facilities as per the JMP definition, ity of walls and roofs, this share is largely unchanged in most cities.
but only 18% had individual flush latrines to a piped sewer system However, when considering overcrowding, this share drops signif-
in 2005-06. In Kinshasa, these shares were 20% and 0% in 2014. It is icantly: the difference ranges from 11 percentage points in Hyder-
worth mentioning that, with sanitation, there is a distinction abad to up to 33 percentage points in Mumbai (authors’
between access and use, with the latter influenced by behavioural calculations based on IIPS & Macro International, 2007).
and attitudinal barriers (the DHS asks households what type of toi-
let facility household members usually use). 5.3. Multidimensional poverty index (MPI)
Compared with the current JMP definition, if we consider ‘lim-
ited sharing’ as improved, a significantly higher proportion of So far, we have shown that some parameters of the multidimen-
households are counted as using adequate sanitation facilities. sional indicators used to measure access to basic services and hous-
However, when excluding pit latrines and septic tanks – which ing do not adequately consider pertinent concerns in urban areas.
are often inappropriate for urban settings – from the measure of Improved water facilities include shared facilities (in informal set-
‘improved’ sanitation, the proportion of households with improved tlements, they could be shared by hundreds); improved sanitation
facilities is lower in most cities. Therefore, in some regards, the JMP can include types of facilities that compromise good health in urban
definition seems too narrow for the urban context (i.e. by not areas (e.g. facilities connected to a septic tank or pit latrines) and
allowing any sharing of facilities); on the other hand, in some exclude others that may be shared but may be fit for purpose; and
respects it is too wide (i.e. by including pit latrines as improved). housing indicators based on flooring materials can underestimate
While the net effect would vary based on local circumstances, indi- overcrowding, among other housing deprivations.
cators should be more nuanced since these differences have varied As an illustrative example, we assess the extent to which
policy implications. adjusting the indicators on water, sanitation and housing under
the living standards component of the MPI (while preserving its
5.2. Access to decent housing health and education components) affects measures of multidi-
mensional poverty in seven cities. We considered a household
Housing indicators used to assess well-being do not always con- deprived if:
sider the range of deprivations city dwellers experience. The MPI
considers a household deprived in housing if they had dirt, sand  The household does not have access to piped drinking water on
or dung floors (the restrictive choice owed to the limited data that premises.
were available to construct a cross-national measure).  The household does not have flush or flush pour latrine to piped
However, this may underestimate poverty by failing to consider sewer system.
precarious multi-storey dwellings, common in slum settlements  The household does not have a ‘finished’ roof, walls or floors or
(Satterthwaite, 2014). There may be concerns regarding the quality it has four or more people sharing a sleeping room (see Annex 1
of the walls and roofs, which may not protect people from adverse for more details on the MPI and its methodology, and how the
environmental conditions. modifications made compare with the MPI indicators).

100%
Share of populaon (%)

75%

50%

25%

0%
Delhi (2006) Kolkata (2006) Mumbai (2006) Hyderabad Chennai (2006) Manila (2013) Kinshasa (2014)
(2006)
JMP definion (not shared) Modified JMP (shared up to 5 hhs)
Flush or pour flush to piped sewer system (not shared) Flush latrines to piped sewer system (shared up to 5 hhs)

Fig. 3. Share of population with improved sanitation in selected cities (%). Note: *Modified JMP includes improved facilities shared by up to five households as ‘improved’.
Sources: Authors’ calculation based on IIPS and Macro International (2007), Philippine Statistics Authority and ICF International (2014), Ministère du Plan et Suivi de la Mise
en oeuvre de la Révolution de la Modernité, Ministère de la Santé Publique de République Démocratique du Congo, et MEASURE DHS, ICF International (2014).
306 P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

45%
Original Modified
40%

35%
Share of populaon (%)

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Delhi (2006) Kolkata (2006) Mumbai (2006) Hyderabad Chennai (2006) Manila (2013) Kinshasa
(2006) (2014)

Fig. 4. Headcount ratio for multidimensional poverty in selected cities (%). Sources: Authors’ calculation based on IIPS and Macro International (2007), Philippine Statistics
Authority and ICF International (2014), Ministère du Plan et Suivi de la Mise en oeuvre de la Révolution de la Modernité, Ministère de la Santé Publique de République
Démocratique du Congo, et MEASURE DHS, ICF International (2014). Note: More details on the methodology are included in Annex 1.

Even amending only selected indicators from the ‘living stan- tions (e.g. squatter settlement versus inner city precarious build-
dards’ dimension in urban areas leads to considerable changes in ing) could address this issue (this would require agreement on
the MPI (Fig. 4). The difference in the poverty headcount ratio settlement density/housing structure criteria). There is also scope
(the share of people identified as poor) between the global MPI to improve the transparency of definitions and specific thresholds
and the modified MPI is 5 percentage points or more in six out of used for different criteria. At present, it is often difficult to find this
seven cities. As an example, in Delhi this would amount to over information by reading metadata published online by data
one million people. producers.
There are also differences in the average intensity of poverty
among the poor, or the share of weighted indicators in which the 6.2. Addressing problems with data
poor are deprived, of up to 3 percentage points (in Meerut) (see
Table A2 in Annex 1 for further results). 6.2.1. Undercounting in data collection
Many of the biases inherent in undercounting slum populations
6. Conclusion can be corrected by improving data collection. NSOs and interna-
tional organisations (e.g. those coordinating MICS, DHS, LSMS,
As the pace of urbanisation accelerates, it is increasingly impor- etc.) all have a role to play in this regard.
tant that the way we monitor poverty trends is suitable for urban As in the case of definitions, it would be useful to increase trans-
contexts. Some aspects of data collection and poverty measures at parency over the methods used to construct sampling frames.
national and international level were devised at a time when pov- Metadata could state clearly the extent to which methods used
erty was mostly rural, and now require adjustments. could undercount certain populations, such as slum dwellers. This
In this paper, we examined different ways in which current way, independent sources can verify and replicate these estimates
measures may underestimate urban poverty. We have considered on their own. Cross-checking and using different sources of data
problems with varying definitions of slums and issues related to produced by different actors (e.g. global numbers, national num-
the data (e.g. undercounting of slum populations and lack of bers, enumerations by civil society) could also help highlight issues
detailed geographical disaggregation beyond urban averages). We relating to missing slum populations.
have also discussed how particular assumptions and indicators For instance, many slum dwellers (organised as federations)
used in monetary and multidimensional measures of poverty have recently carried out enumerations that can complement and
may be inappropriate for urban contexts, and proposed some indi- verify the data collected through conventional methods in addition
cators that might be more suitable. We conclude by providing a to filling data gaps. Federations use this rich information to nego-
series of suggestions for improvements with regard to each of tiate with local government, influence resource flows and develop-
the problems identified in this article. ment priorities and make poor communities vocal and visible
(Know Your City, 2016).
6.1. Addressing problems with slum definitions In some instances, it has also been possible to compare
community-generated data across countries and to collect such
Our analysis demonstrates how national and global level esti- data using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology (Beukes,
mates on the size and proportion of slum dwellers can vary signif- 2014). GPS-based data have location and time components, so
icantly with the definitions used. clearly identifiable points with precise GPS coordinates allow slum
It is worth considering whether it is still appropriate to club dwellers to be ‘proactive in defining their own spaces and in put-
together one or a few households with housing or basic service ting themselves on the maps’ (ibid: 2), especially when govern-
deprivations and larger squatter settlements within the same def- ments’ city maps fail to register their neighbourhoods’ (ibid.).
inition, as the UN-Habitat definition does. Adding more nuanced In addition, more countries, particularly those where urbanisa-
breakdowns that differentiate between types of housing depriva- tion is taking place at a fast pace, could consider conducting
P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310 307

slum-specific Censuses and surveys. For example, in Bangladesh, consumption and expenditure surveys should include questions
slum-specific Censuses are being carried out in between two Pop- for meals out and make sure these include quantities consumed
ulation and Housing Census rounds. If a slum-specific Census is to calculate caloric intake. Ideally, food expenditure should be
carried out at the mid-point between two Population and Housing recorded by each adult rather than by a household head, and using
Census rounds, the data are likely to better reflect conditions in diaries as this method is perceived to be more accurate. Of course,
slums, and to provide consistent time series data to compare this is less feasible in countries with high rates of illiteracy, and
changes over time. In addition, census listings can be updated accuracy has been shown to diminish over time as respondents
using aerial photography; as some countries like Chile do (INE, develop fatigue (Beegle et al., 2012).
2009). The UN Population Fund (UNFPA), which is coordinating
the 2020 round of the Population and Housing Census, is ideally 6.3.2. Non-food allowances, central to urban poverty, are inadequately
placed to spearhead this exercise and to mobilise countries in covered
doing so. Finally, it would also help if Population and Housing Cen- Another central problem of monetary measures is that the data
sus data generally included slum settlements as another geo- needed to account for non-food allowances, key elements of low-
graphic unit, making these estimates easily available with every income households’ budgets in urban areas, are often not consis-
round (e.g. through NSO portals). tently collected. Expenditure surveys should include comprehen-
Slum-specific surveys can use standardised instruments of the sive questions on non-food needs, including housing, transport,
DHS or MICS, but with sampling frames designed especially for water, sanitation, schooling and health care. It is also worth consid-
slums. For instance, the African Population and Health Research ering a review of the most common methods to account for non-
Centre (APHRC) designed a survey for Nairobi’s slums in 2000, food allowances in urban contexts, as the most popular ones are
the results of which could be compared with Kenya’s 1998 DHS likely to set the urban poverty line too low.
(APHRC, 2012). The Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)
conducted a MICS exclusively for Mombasa’s slums in 2009. Such 6.3.3. Differences in costs of living are insufficiently accounted for
surveys are exceptions, however, not the rule (Carr-Hill, 2013). Finally, as the importance of comparing poverty incidence and
Big data, in particular mobile phone call detail records (CDRs), standards of living across areas and provinces is likely to increase,
can also be used to capture high-frequency data on poor mobile further differentiation of the cost of living between different areas
populations that move in and out of slums. CDRs have been used (large cities versus smaller ones) will be needed too. There is also
to analyse mobility and migration patterns, and to predict poverty scope here to consider whether new technologies can help produce
headcount rates. In Rwanda, for example, Blumenstock (2012) esti- more frequent and granular data on prices in different areas.
mated internal migration patterns using a dataset containing
mobile phone CDRs for 1.5 million people between 2005 and 6.4. Addressing problems with multidimensional measures
2009 and from calling about 900 subscribers to collect anonymised
demographic data. Similarly, Wesolowski and Eagle (2009) used 6.4.1. Access to basic services: Accounting for dense urban contexts
CDRs for 6 million mobile phone subscribers in Nairobi, Kenya, with high demand
between June 2008 and 2009 to examine the dynamics of the Kib- Sources that are adequate in rural settings may not be appropri-
era slum – how long people stay there and where people move to, ate in urban areas. In this context, for instance, only having data on
as well as where they work. Soto, Frias-Martinez, Virseda, and distance from or time taken to walk to a drinking water source is
Frias-Martinez (2011) use call data records to predict poverty in not enough; information is needed on how many people share a
a Latin American city with about 500,000 citizens, and compare source (and/or waiting times) in order to account for overcrowding
their findings with official estimates. in dense slum settlements.
There is also scope to be more nuanced about the definition of
6.2.2. Lack of granularity access to improved water, building on the ‘ladder’ approach set
The lack of granular survey data means we have information out by the UNICEF/WHO JMP. For instance, in addition to a
only for urban averages, and do not know about the extent of share/unshared distinction, there could be another category of data
intra- and inter-city disparities. Household surveys often have readily available for limited sharing (i.e. by ‘up to five households’).
small sample sizes that do not allow for disaggregation of data This is in line with what is currently proposed by the slums targets
beyond urban averages. in the SDGs (UNSD, 2016). Although the number of surveys includ-
Conducting slum-specific surveys or ensuring that household ing a question on sharing services has increased over the years,
surveys have large enough samples sizes to provide results for data on the extent of sharing are rare – only 85 out of over 400 sur-
slum settlements can help with this issue. Trying and testing veys in 2015 lent themselves to distinguishing the number of
new methods and new technologies to capture slum data more households sharing facilities (UNICEF and WHO, 2015).
easily and frequently (in periods where survey data are unavail- In the case of access to sanitation facilities, there is scope to
able) could also be useful. revisit the categories used and what constitutes ‘improved’
access. Although the JMP classifies all shared facilities as unim-
6.3. Addressing problems with monetary poverty measures proved, shared sanitation is on the first step of the sanitation
ladder and as such, should be reported individually (UNICEF
Commonly used indicators like the income poverty headcount and WHO, 2015). Some have suggested that a threshold of five
ratio can also underestimate urban poverty. In particular, the lack or more households, as in the case of water facilities, known
of accounting for higher non-food spending and relative costs of as ‘limited sharing’, should be included in the ‘improved’ cate-
living in urban areas can result in urban poverty lines that are gory for sanitation (ibid.). Others argue that even limited sharing
too low. has negative impacts on health and should not be considered
‘improved’. Note that limited sharing would still consider com-
6.3.1. Outdated questionnaires do not reflect current food consumption munity toilet blocks – which, for instance, work well in Mum-
habits bai’s dense slums settlements as a short-term solution – as
One problem with monetary measures is that questionnaires do unimproved facilities (Mitlin, 2015).
not reflect changing habits (e.g. an increasing tendency for house- In addition to issues of overcrowding, indicators used must
hold members to eat separately and away from home). Household pay attention to the implications of service quality. As argued
308 P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310

in Section 5, a pit latrine or septic tank may be sufficient in rural Acknowledgements


areas but not in densely populated urban settlements where
they may fill up rapidly and communities may find it difficult We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their com-
to get them emptied or to build new pits. In fact, the absence ments which helped improve and clarify this paper. Sincere thanks
of a piped sewerage network in urban areas raises concerns to Steven Commins, Christopher Hoy, Claire Melamed, Gregory
about the adequacy of sanitation services given adverse health Pierce, Emma Samman, Pronab Sen, Suman Seth, and Elizabeth Stu-
risks caused by poor faecal waste management (Mitlin, 2015). art for their useful comments to an earlier version of this paper.
This and ongoing discussions on shared facilities and how to The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Department
classify hygienic toilet blocks shared with more than five house- for International Development (DFID) provided financial support
holds warrant further discussions relating to the JMP criteria of to undertake this research. The usual disclaimers apply.
improved sanitation. Other aspects, such as the quality of the
service (e.g. the quality of the water, the hygienic condition of
toilets or whether access is frequently available), its affordability Funding
and the number of hours in which households can access water,
and indeed sanitation, are also important. This article is based on research that was supported by the Wil-
liam and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Department for Inter-
national Development (DFID). The sponsors have not been
6.4.2. Access to housing: Collecting information beyond the quality of involved in any stage of study design; collection, analysis, or inter-
the flooring pretation of data; drafting of the article; or decision to submit the
In the case of housing too, more consistent data collection on article for publication.
quality is needed – beyond the material of the flooring of house-
holds (e.g. on materials of roofs and walls) to include information
about the extent of overcrowding and tenure security, which fewer Annex 1: Indicators and weights used in calculating the
household surveys collect. Again, this will require strengthening multidimensional poverty Index, and selected results
data collection efforts in these areas.
In short, improvements in data collection are urgently needed. It is widely acknowledged that poverty is not about just income
This will help governments and campaigners better understand or consumption but is a much wider concept. In this context,
the consequences of urbanisation and push for policies that can recent efforts have attempted to measure deprivation in a way that
improve poor city dwellers’ lives. Of course, data alone will not accounts better for broader aspects of well-being. The MPI (intro-
be enough to achieve these changes, but they will be a step in duced by OPHI and UNDP, and published annually by the Human
the right direction. Development Report Office) is one such an initiative. This

Table A1
Weights and indicators used in original and modified version.

Dimension Weight A household is considered deprived if. . .


Original indicator Modification
Health 1/6 Nutrition:* Any adult or child for whom there is nutritional –
information is malnourished
1/6 Child mortality:** Any child has died in the household within the past –
five years
Education 1/6 Years of schooling: No member older than 10 years has completed 5 –
years of schooling
1/6 School attendance: Any school-age child is not attending school up to –
the age they would complete Class 8
Living standards 1/18 Cooking fuel: The household cooks with dung, wood or charcoal –
1/18 Sanitation***: The household’s sanitation facility is not improved, or it The household does not have flush or flush pour latrine to
is improved but shared with other households piped sewer system, or it shares its facilities with other
households
1/18 Water:**** The household does not have access to an improved The household does not have piped drinking water to premises
drinking water source or it is a 30-min walk or more from home, or plot/yard
round trip
1/18 Electricity: The household has no electricity –
1/18 Housing: The household has a dirt, sand or dung floor The household does not have a ‘finished’ roof, walls or floors, or
it has 4 or more people per sleeping room
1/18 Assets: The household does not own more than one radio, TV, –
telephone, bike, motorbike or refrigerator and does not own a car or
truck

Note: While we have amended access indicators such that they consider urban-specific deprivations, data are unavailable on some indicators (e.g. number of hours of water
access).
*
Adults are considered malnourished if their Body Mass Index is below 18.5 m/kg2. Children are considered malnourished if their z-score of weight-for-age is below -2
standard deviations from the median of the reference population
**
The DHS does not collect data on whether a child has died in the past five years; instead, it asks women if they have a son or daughter who has died without stipulating a
time period.
***
A household is considered to have access to improved sanitation if it has some type of flush toilet or latrine, or ventilated improved pit or composting toilet, provided they
are not shared.
****
A household has access to clean drinking water if the water source is any of the following types: piped water, public tap, borehole or pump, protected well, protected
spring or rainwater, and is within 30 minutes’ walk (round trip).
P. Lucci et al. / World Development 103 (2018) 297–310 309

Table A2
MPI and modified MPI results for cities.

City Original Modified Difference (% pts)


H A M0 H A M0 H A
Delhi (2006) 15% 42% 0.063 21% 44% 0.093 6% 2%
Kolkata (2006) 17% 46% 0.076 27% 46% 0.122 10% 0%
Mumbai (2006) 15% 41% 0.060 20% 43% 0.085 5% 2%
Hyderabad (2006) 20% 41% 0.080 24% 44% 0.108 5% 4%
Chennai (2006) 14% 40% 0.055 24% 41% 0.102 11% 2%
Manila (2013) 1% 33% 0.003 4% 54% 0.023 3% 21%
Kinshasa (2014) 24% 43% 0.103 41% 43% 0.176 17% 0%

Note: H refers to the headcount ratio; A is the intensity of poverty among the poor or average the share of weighted indicators in which the poor are deprived; and M0 is the
modified headcount ratio or MPI, calculated as the product of H and A.

Table A3
MPI results for cities by type of residence.

City H A M0
Non-slum Slum Non-slum Slum Non-slum Slum
Delhi (2006) 7% 23% 35% 44% 0.025 0.102
Kolkata (2006) 7% 30% 39% 48% 0.028 0.143
Mumbai (2006) 10% 18% 38% 41% 0.037 0.073
Hyderabad (2006) 8% 25% 36% 41% 0.031 0.105
Chennai (2006) 8% 16% 37% 40% 0.029 0.064

Note: H refers to the headcount ratio; A is the intensity of poverty among the poor or the average share of weighted indicators in which the poor are deprived; and M0 is the
modified headcount ratio or MPI calculated as the product of H and A.

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