Munoz 1

Alan Munoz

Mrs. Layton

English 1010

7 May 2020

A Comprehensive Look at a Future with Artificial Intelligence

Introduction

Merriam Webster defines artificial intelligence as, “the capability of a machine to imitate

intelligent human behavior”. Lately, this topic has gained traction, caused controversy, and

created hysteria. This is due to the exponential increase in the capabilities of computers over the

last century. These robots have already started beating out humans in certain specific tasks such

as chess. The way things are heading, it’s not unreasonable to predict that in the near future,

computers will be able to surpass humans in all sorts of ways. This mere projection has stirred up

the world and has forced us all to ponder how a world with artificial intelligence would look.

Some say we should rush to make this world a reality as it would greatly increase our standard of

life while many others fear these computers could be the downfall of society.

Regardless of where you stand on this topic, it is clear that computers have already beaten

humans in many areas such as driving, chess, and the less talked about, medical field. Phil

Witaker, an experienced doctor, commented on his knowledge clash with an AI diagnosis tool, “I

felt extremely embarrassed: the app was clearly better informed than I was. Machine – 1, human

doc – 0” (Whitaker). When diagnosing a patient that had recently been to West Africa, he was

sure that malaria could potentially be the culprit. When Isabel, an artificial intelligence

diagnosing program, did not pull up malaria as an option, Whitaker was sure the medical robot
 Munoz 2

was wrong. After a quick fact check, he realized that the computer was actually correct. Artificial

intelligence is clearly on the path to surpass people in many fields which may concern some, but

to others, it means a better life for all of us. Humans make mistakes, but computers don’t.

Integrating them into our day to day operations could help make society more efficient and even

lessen the death rate. For example, Tesla is currently making fully autonomous cars. The

Department of Transportation stated, “The major factor in 94 percent of all fatal crashes is

human error. So ADSs have the potential to significantly reduce highway fatalities by addressing

the root cause of these tragic crashes”(Automated Driving Systems: A Vision for Safety). This

means that making cars all fully autonomous would lower the car related death rate by ninety

four percent. Human robot integration could, and has already proven to, make the world a safer

place. Despite this fact, many see this integration as a large risk.

If robots can do any job a human can do and do it better, how long until there are no

longer any jobs for humans? The research on this topic is unclear however the concern is not

unfounded. Stuart Elliot of Carnegie Mellon University, an expert in this field, had this to say,

“On the technology side, the discussion often focuses on surprising examples of tasks that AI and

robots can now carry out, but without putting those examples in perspective. How do they

compare to the full range of tasks at work?” (Elliot). In the past, new technological developments

have gotten rid of the need for human labor, however, they always seem to create a surge of new

jobs in absence of the lost ones. If this trend continues, then we should hold no fear of losing

jobs to automation, but as artificial intelligence continues to grow exponentially it is not certain

that this will be the case.

 Munoz 3

Another large reason for concern has not to do with the losing of jobs, but rather the

annihilation of the human race. At first, one might dismiss this idea as a thought only relevant in

science fiction novels and films, but upon further exploration, the concern begins to feel more

real. Sam Harris, author and philosopher, articulates it well, “ The concern is really that we will

build machines that are so much more competent than we are that the slightest divergence

between their goals and our own could destroy us” (Harris). Harris brings up the point that,

eventually, we will create machines far smarter than us, and at that point they will start

improving themselves which will create an exponential explosion in intelligence. He brings up

the examples that although we do not hate ants, we don’t hesitate to obliterate them when

constructing a building. In this analogy, we are the ants.

Computers are catching up to humans, and catching up fast. Is it reasonable to conclude

this early in artificial intelligence development that they even have the capabilities of surpassings

us as beings? If so, what would that entail.

Major Debates

Although artificial intelligence currently exists in the world, the extremities of its

potential, as well as their effects, have yet to be discovered. This means that for now, all we can

make are predictions on how this whole scenario will unfold. One very polarized area of

discussion is also very prevalent in pop culture, the idea that we would not be able to control

artificial intelligence. One side of the aisle believes that there is definitely reason to think that

artificial intelligence has the capacity to undermine humans as a race while others seem to think

that is simply an idea created by science fiction, and that's where it should stay. In, “Can we

build AI without losing control over it?” Sam Harris, neuroscientist and philosopher, stated,
 Munoz 4

“Intelligence is a matter of information processing in physical systems… We have already built

narrow intelligence into our machines, and many of these machines perform at a level of

superhuman intelligence already. And we know that mere matter can give rise to what is called

"general intelligence," an ability to think flexibly across multiple domains, because our brains

have managed it” (Harris). Here, Harris makes a point in favor of the possibility that we could

eventually create a robot more powerful in computation than our brains. The only prerequisite to

this idea is that consciousness has nothing to do with the metaphysical and can be manufactured

by humans. Once we have created an artificial intelligence that has the capability to surpass us, it

will start to improve itself at a rate much faster than us. This growth will be exponential.

Right now, humans are the smartest conscious beings that we have observed. Smartness

can be defined as a broad sense of problem solving capable of adapting quickly. People exist that

are smarter than you and I and people exist who are dumber. This statement only serves to point

out the fact that an intelligence spectrum does exist and there are extremes that remain

unexplored. Once these machines have been created, they will reach new heights on the

intelligence spectrum that have yet to be explored. To refer back to a previous point, it is not

very likely that these machines will turn evil and destroy the human race out of spite. What is

more probable is that they will potentially see us as an inconvenience and therefore decide to

annihilate us. Of course, all this is theoretical and there is no evidence that this situation would

unfold like this. Who knows? They might think we’re pretty cool.

Now, let’s take a look at a different perspective. George Zarkadakis, University of

London, wrote, “Superhuman intelligence’ is not semantically equivalent to ‘a computer

possessing the whole spectrum of cognitive capabilities that a human brain has.’ Computers
 Munoz 5

supersede us only in specific subsets of intelligence. Brute Computing power does not suffice for

computers to achieve the whole spectrum of the human brain’s cognitive abilities” (Zarkadakis).

Here, Zarkadakis argues that although artificial intelligences have surpassed us in certain specific

tasks, it is impossible for them to ever grasp a general intelligence that can be used in multiple

areas. This point directly rebuatalls the point Sam Harris made that our brains are simply

computing machines, not unlike robots, and therefore have the potential to be surpassed by other

computing machines.

Another major area of debate when it comes to artificial intelligence is the growing

possibility that they will, in the near future, displace millions of working class citizens as they

will be more cost efficient and less prone to failure than humans. Although this topic is a bit less

flashy than ‘robots taking over the world’, it is still an important area of discussion that is much

more likely to affect us. To put into context how large of an issue this has the potential to be,

take a look at what previous twenty-twenty presidential candidate stated, “All you need is

self-driving cars to destabilize society… we’re going to have a million truck drivers out of work

who are 94 percent male, with an average level of education of high school or one year of

college” (Yang). Fighting against the displacement of American workers due to machine

automation was one of Andrew Yang’s most talked about issues. We already have self-driving

cars and Tesla started production on autonomous trucks a couple years back. Soon, these more

cost-effective vehicles will take the jobs of the masses. An analysis of the US labor markets

created by Daron Acemoglu as well as Pascual Redtrepo sums up these concerns nicely, “In this

model, both with and without trade between labor markets, robots may have a positive or

negative effect on employment and wages. Their positive impact comes from the productivity
 Munoz 6

effect, while their negative impact is due to the direct displacement of workers by robots”

(Acemoglu). To put this in layman terms, some people believe that automating away jobs will,

overall, be good for the economy as it will increase efficiency, while on the other hand, people

such as Yang fear automation and artificial intelligence and argue that it will create a massive

problem in terms of displacement of jobs.

Although many fear automation, some see this viewpoint as unrealistic. An MIT report

stated, “Production systems must constantly adapt to rapidly changing conditions. With current

technology, human presence often exceeds machinery in providing that flexibility… Not all

innovations that raise productivity displace workers, and not all innovations that displace

workers substantially raise productivity” (Shaping Technology and Institutions). This essentially

means that although automation is slowly replacing some jobs, new jobs will subsequently be

created to fill in this void. Humans are much smarter than robots in terms of broad general

cognitive abilities and are therefore necessary in our economy and civilization. At least until

robots beat us there too! The latter half of this quotation means that the displacement of workers

will come at a slow and steady rate and will not be drastic. This point directly opposes what

Andrew Yang stated as millions will not be out of work at the blink of an eye. Rather, it will

happen over the course of many years, if not decades, which will allow for adaptation. It also,

however, counteracts the point that this automation will raise efficiency by much and makes it

more probable that the economy will not skyrocket when robots take all our jobs.

Artificial intelligence has become something that we have all encountered. Whether

you're arguing with a friend over the likelihood of a complete AI takeover or having an

educational discourse with a colleague on the effect that automation will have on the upcoming
 Munoz 7

economy, one thing is certain. The conversation will be very polarizing. Different people hold

different viewpoints on upcoming and popular issues such as these. Currently, there is no way of

proving your predictions and so we’ll just have to wait it out.

Areas of Further Inquiry

The two major controversial topics relating to the future of artificial intelligence tend to

be focused around the robot stealing job issue as well as the obliteration of mankind as we know

it. These two topics have been covered extensively in this essay from all kinds of different

perspectives. It’s time we shift into the less polarizing and more creative issues surrounding the

future of artificial intelligence.

Artificial intelligence is a technology that can be exploited in every industry and

institution, for example, military. A congressional research report stated, “ While a small

number of analysts believe that the technology will have minimal impact, most believe that AI

will have at least an evolutionary—if not revolutionary—effect” (Artificial Intelligence and

National Security). Countries who have more developed artificial intelligence hold greater power

on the world stage. In 2017, China released a plan to become the world leaders in AI

development by the year 2030. This new technology has already been integrated into some of our

military such as semi autonomous military vehicles. This, obviously, presents a series of ethical

dilemmas. Should we be using this new technology for such evil acts as war? Many new

artificial intelligence corporations don’t think we should and have decided to not partner with the

Department of Defense for the sake of their morality.

Another large industry that has recently started using artificial intelligence is journalism.

From television news to newspapers, AI can be manipulated in various different ways to alter the
 Munoz 8

media you see and even hinder or improve its authenticity. Mark Hansen of Brown Institute for

Media Innovation said this in a joint collaboration paper, “In those outlying or special cases that

might elude human identification because of the scale or complexity of the data, AI can be a

breakthrough tool. This role fits neatly into standard newsroom processes, because even if it

discovers cases the human eye could not, the findings can be fact-checked via standard human

investigative techniques” (Hansen). This is but one of several applications for artificial

intelligence in the media. AI could be used to sift through insurmountable amounts of data to

find very specific cases that could then be screened by humans. This would allow for more

complex and detailed news stories. This AI could also be used to free up room for more

interesting reporting. Currently, this new technology has already been used to author news

stories that require little skill and are based on predictable patterns. Writing like these include

sport wrap ups, earthquakes, corporate profit releases, etc. With these easy to write stories out of

the way, more creative talent can be used elsewhere on more intricate projects that machines still

lack the capabilities of reproducing.

The applications for artificial intelligence are quite literally endless. From massive job

loss to human extinction, the future of AI is still unclear but one thing is certain; It is definitely a

great mental stimulant to brainstorm on these polarizing issues and their applications as well as

how they might end up impacting you in the future

 Munoz 9

Work Cited

Acemoglu, Daron, and Pascual Restrepo. “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets.”

The National Bureau of Economic Research, Mar. 2017,

https://www.nber.org/papers/w23285.

Atkinson, Robert D. “It’s Going to Kill Us!” AndOther Myths About the Futureof Artificial

Intelligence. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation,

https://www.academia.edu/31097275/_Its_Going_to_Kill_Us_and_Other_Myths_About_

the_Future_of_Artificial_Intelligence.

“Automated Driving Systems: A Vision for Safety.” The National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration,

www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/13069a-ads2.0_090617_v9a_tag.pdf.

Elliott, Stuart W. “Artificial Intelligence, Robots, and Work: Is This Time Different?”

Issues in Science & Technology, vol. 35, no. 1, Fall 2018, p. 40. EBSCOhost,

search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=sch&AN=133097078.

Hansen, Mark. “Artificial Intelligence: Practice and Implications for Journalism.” Sept. 2017.

“Artificial Intelligence and National Security.” Congressional Research Service, 21 Nov.

2019, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R45178.pdf.

Harris, Sam. TED,

www.ted.com/talks/sam_harris_can_we_build_ai_without_losing_control_over_it/transcr

ipt?language=en.

“Shaping Technology and Institutions.” The Work of the Future: 2019,

https://workofthefuture.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2019-09/WorkoftheFuture_Report_Sha
 Munoz 10

ping_Technology_and_Institutions.pdf.

Whitaker, Phil. “The Computer Will See You Now.” New Statesman, vol. 148, no. 5482/5483,

Aug. 2019, pp. 38–43. EBSCOhost,

search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=lfh&AN=137861506.

Zarkadakis, George. In Our Own Image: Will Artificial Intelligence Save or Destroy Us? Rider

Books, 2015.