Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam Invited to Rim of the
Pacific Exercise 2020
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2020

We have just received news that the United States has invited Vietnam to take part in
this year’s Rim of the Pacific or RIMPAC Exercise. We request your assessment of the
following issues:
Q1. What does the U.S. invitation to Vietnam to participate in this event signify?
Also, what about the timing of the invitation?
ANSWER: This is the fourth time Vietnam will participate in RIMPAC. Vietnam sent
observers in 2012 and 2016. Vietnam was an official participant for the first time in
2018 when it sent eight naval officers but no warship.
Under the Trump Administration, major policy documents such as the U.S. National
Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy of the United States and the Indo-
Pacific Strategy Report all identify Vietnam as a potential strategic partner. This was
why Vietnam was invited in 2018 and again this year. This U.S. would like Vietnam to
participate in a networked regional security arrangement.
As for the timing RIMPAC, it is held every two years usually between June-July. This
year RIMPAC has been cut to two weeks, from 17-31 August. In past years naval
exercises were held in waters off San Diego, California and Hawaii. This year naval
exercises will be restricted to the waters around Hawaii.
Q2. What do you think about the possibility of Vietnam’s participation in
the modified RIMPAC 2020?
ANSWER: Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, RIMPAC will only involve exercises at
sea. It is unlikely that Vietnam will send a warship; therefore, Vietnam will have to
make special arrangements for its naval officers to participate in RIMPAC 2020. They
could be accommodated on a ship from a friendly nation.
Q3. If Vietnam accepts the invitation to take part in the RIMPAC 2020, how will
China respond to this? Do you think Vietnam is fully aware of and fully prepared for
China’s reaction?
ANSWER: China participated in RIMPAC in 2014 for the first time and again in 2016.
China was not invited in 2018 due to its militarization of the South China Sea. Twenty-
five countries participated in RIMPAC 2018 either by sending ships, aircraft or staff. In
addition to Vietnam (staff only), six other ASEAN members participated – Indonesia,
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Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore sent naval ships, while Brunei and Thailand set
staff officers.
China’s exclusion was a bilateral matter involving the United States. Vietnam did not
suffer any criticism for its participation in 2018 and it is highly unlikely China will
criticize Vietnam this year. Vietnamese leaders are cognizant of this background.
Q4. What does the U.S. exclusion of China and inclusion of Vietnam in RIMPAC
2020 tell us about the U.S.-China relations? Will Vietnam’s participation contribute to
strengthening Vietnam-US relations and set the stage for the two to raise their
relations to a higher level of partnership?
ANSWER: China was excluded in 2018 so its exclusion this year is not surprising. It isn’t
a matter of China or Vietnam. China’s exclusion this year is a product of the war of
words between Washington and Beijing over China’s handling of the COVID-19
pandemic. Bilateral relations are at an all- time low under the Trump Administration.
Vietnam and the United States remain comprehensive partners. They have not
officially upgraded bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. Vietnam’s invitation
signifies that the United States views Vietnam a potential contributor to a free and
open Indo-Pacific including freedom of navigation. Vietnam’s invitation also signifies
that the U.S. wishes to signal support for Vietnam at a time of Chinese bullying and
intimidation. Vietnam welcomes this but raising relations from a comprehensive to
strategic partnership raises many issues besides defence-security ties that must be
resolved first (U.S designation of Vietnam as a non-market economy, U.S. tariffs etc.).
Q5. What is the significance of conducting RIMPAC 2020 amidst increasing tensions
and conflict in the South China Sea between China and Vietnam and other
Southeast ASEAN’s countries?
ANSWER: The theme for this year’s Rim of the Pacific Exercise is “Capable, Adaptive,
Partners.” According to a media statement released by the U.S. Pacific Fleet, “This
year’s exercise will include multinational anti-submarine warfare, maritime intercept
operations, and live-firing training events, among other cooperative training
opportunities. Continued planning will remain flexible as Navy leaders monitor and
assess evolving circumstances.”
On the face of it, RIMPAC exercises are not directly related to current tensions in the
South China Sea. The first RIMPAC was held in 1971 long before the South China Sea
disputes became hearted. However, the involvement of seven ASEAN countries does
signify that the U.S. is signalling its support for these countries at a time of heightened
Chinese aggressiveness.
Of greater relevance to Southeast Asia than RIMPAC has been the shift in the
deployment of U.S. Navy ships to the South China Sea on naval presence patrols. This
was best illustrated this month when the USS America (LHA-6) and USS Bunker Hill
(CV-17) sailed into waters off East Malaysia at a time when China was attempting to
intimidate Malaysia over its oil exploration activities. The U.S. then deployed the USS
Montgomery (LCS-8), USNS Cesar Chavez (TAKE-14) and USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS-
10) to the same area to maintain a watching brief.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Invited to Rim of the Pacific Exercise
2020,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 16, 2020. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
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