TCB Global Consumer Confidence Report Q2 20181 PDF

Global Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board ® Global Consumer Confidence Survey

is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
2nd QUARTER
2018 RESULTS
CONTENTS
Global Highlights
Asia-Pacific
Africa and the Middle East
Latin America
North America
Europe
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Global Highlights
Global Consumer Confidence Moves Downward for First Time

in Two Years
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, Q2 2018: 104
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Q2 2018: 104
Norway
92
Russia Sweden Russia

70 99 70
Canada Canada
102 UK 102
Germany
101
107 Kazakhstan
France
78 Italy 84
South Korea US Spain 62 South Korea US
Greece
56 Japan 123 92 China 56 Japan 123
67 Israel UAE
Morocco 113
Taiwan 83 102 116 Taiwan 83
76 Mexico 70 Saudi Arabia India Vietnam 76 Mexico
Philippines 96 107 124 120 Philippines 96
Thailand Venezuela Thailand
102 127 102 127
Colombia 67
101 Indonesia
127
Brazil Brazil
56 127 Chile
81
Chile
81
Australia
91 93 91
Argentina South Africa Argentina
76 90 76
New Zealand
102
Confidence across the globe Q2 Q1 PT

2018 2018 CHG
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Index declined by 2 points in the second quarter of 2018 Global Consumer
104 106 -2
Confidence Index
to 104 from 106 in the first quarter. This is the first time
North America 121 121 0
the index has declined in two and a half years.
Asia-Pacific 112 115 -3
• Globally, optimism about job prospects, personal Africa & The Middle East 93 91 2
finances and intentions to spend have somewhat Europe 87 86 1
declined compared to the previous quarter, albeit Latin America 86 88 -2
there is large variation across countries.

• While the biggest concern for consumers globally over the next six months is the
economy, it is closely followed by concerns about personal health and job security.
• The ongoing trade and tariff war is likely to affect consumer sentiments in several
economies, including the US, Canada, China, and Mexico.
Confidence across regions

• Asia-Pacific The decline in confidence was most visible in the Asia-Pacific
region, with 11 of the 14 countries showing a decline except Malaysia, Australia,
and Indonesia. Still, six Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, and Vietnam) are in the top-10 countries with the highest confidence
levels in the world.
• Latin America Confidence that was already relatively low, declined, driven by
large declines in Argentina and Brazil.
2 THE CONFERENCE BOARD ® GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q2 2018 RESULTS www.conferenceboard.org
Global Highlights
• Europe Despite the global drop, confidence still increased in 34 countries, of which
24 are located in the broadly defined European region. But three of the largest
economies in Europe showed a modest decline (France, Germany and Italy).
• North America Confidence was unchanged between the first and second
quarters. The level for the United States remained the 4th highest in the world.
• Middle East & Africa Confidence was slightly up, primarily driven by a large
increase in Saudi Arabia.
A moderation in consumer optimism

The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Index® (“TCB Global CCI”) declined by
2 points in the second quarter of 2018 and is back to its Q2 2017 level. While this is the first
time the index has declined in two and a half years, the overall index remains in optimistic
territory. Generally, a reading of above 100 is considered positive.
The moderation in optimism among consumers correlates with the performance of the
global economy, which is not expected to accelerate in 2018. The May 2018 update of The
Conference Board Global Economic Outlook projects global GDP to grow at 3.2 percent this
year, the same rate as last year, with both emerging markets and mature economies seeing
no uptick in growth.
The decline in global confidence was driven by consumers in both mature and emerging
markets. Asia-Pacific was the most dominant driver of the decline, followed by Latin America.
In Asia-Pacific, the overwhelming majority of countries experienced a loss of confidence.
Latin America’s decline was less concentrated across countries, with half experiencing a
moderate decline.
Globally, consumers were less enthusiastic about job prospects, their

personal financial situation, and their spending intentions than last quarter.
North America, despite a slight decline in Canada, managed to maintain the region’s con-
fidence level, while both Europe, Africa, and the Middle East posted small increases. Most
European economies continued to show improvements in consumer confidence, although
some modest declines were noted in large economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. In
Africa and the Middle East, the majority of countries saw an increase in confidence.
Globally, consumers were less enthusiastic about job prospects, their personal financial
situation, and their spending intentions than last quarter. However, sentiment regarding job
and financial prospects remains positive, whereas sentiment regarding spending does not.
Looking ahead, if consumers become apprehensive about job prospects, sentiment regarding
their financial well-being will be impacted, and their spending intentions could further worsen.
This, in turn, may cause consumers to more carefully weigh, or even postpone, discretionary
spending and purchase of durables. However, for the time being, sentiment in several larger
economies remains relatively high and should continue to support further consumer spending.
Hotspots where market potential for the coming months remains strong include the US,
the UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia,
and Saudi Arabia. On the flip side, some economies where confidence was already at lower
levels—Italy, France, Portugal, Turkey, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
and South Africa—show a further deteriorating trend.
Global Ranking
Increase from previous quarter No change from previous quarter Decrease from previous quarter
Country Rank Q2 2018 Country Rank Q2 2018
Indonesia 1 127127 Romania 33 92 92

Philippines 2 127127 Belgium 34 91 91
India 3 124124 Chile 35 91 91
US 4 123123 Peru 36 90 90
Vietnam 5 120120 South Africa 37 90 90
Denmark 6 118118 Estonia 38 88 88
Malaysia 7 117117 Turkey 39 88 88
UAE 8 116116 Slovenia 40 87 87
Pakistan 9 115115 Costa Rica 41 87 87
China 10 113113 Bulgaria 42 85 85
Czech Republic 11 108108 Portugal 43 85 85
Ireland 12 108108 Kazakhstan 44 84 84
Germany 13 107107 Japan 45 83 83
Saudi Arabia 14 107107 Finland 46 83 83
Netherlands 15 106106 Brazil 47 81 81
Hong Kong 16 105105 Hungary 48 80 80
Poland 17 105105 Latvia 49 80 80
Canada 18 102102 Egypt 50 80 80
New Zealand 19 102102 Croatia 51 79 79
Thailand 20 102102 France 52 78 78
Israel 21 102102 Lithuania 53 78 78
Austria 22 101101 Taiwan 54 76 76
UK 23 101101 Argentina 55 76 76
Colombia 24 101101 Serbia 56 75 75
Sweden 25 99 99 Russia 57 70 70
Switzerland 26 99 99 Morocco 58 70 70
Mexico 27 96 96 Belarus 59 67 67
Singapore 28 94 94 Greece 60 67 67
Australia 29 93 93 Venezuela 61 67 67
Slovakia 30 93 93 Italy 62 62 62
Norway 31 92 92 Ukraine 63 62 62
Spain 32 92 92 South Korea 64 56 56
Asia-Pacific
Consumers remain confident despite slight overall decline—

region still presents a strong growth opportunity for
consumer‑centric businesses
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q2 2018: 112
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q2 2018: 112
Q2 Q1 PT
2018 2018 CHG
South Korea
Asia-Pacific 112 115 -3 China
56 Japan
113 83
Indonesia 127 127 0
Philippines 127 128 -1 Hong Kong
India Taiwan
Vietnam105
India 124 130 -6 124 76
120 Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam 120 124 -4 102
127
Malaysia 117 104 13 Malaysia

Singapore117
China 113 115 -2 94
Indonesia
Hong Kong 105 107 -2 127
New Zealand 102 104 -2

Thailand 102 110 -8
Singapore 94 97 -3 Australia
93
Australia 93 91 2
Japan 83 86 -3
Taiwan 76 79 -3
56 127
New Zealand
South Korea 56 59 -3 102
Consumer optimism in Asia-Pacific is moderating, yet the region maintains the second-high-
est level of consumer confidence globally, after North America. Most countries in the region
maintain a relatively high level of confidence. The region in general, and large countries like
China and India in particular, still presents a strong growth opportunity for consumer-centric
businesses. Businesses, however, may want to closely follow the developments in trade and
tariff wars, which could undermine growth prospects and consumer sentiment in the region.
• Overall consumer confidence in the region declined by 3 points from 115 in the
first quarter of 2018 to 112 in the second quarter.
• Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and New Zealand all saw a
decline in confidence of 2 or more points.
• Only two countries, Australia and Malaysia, saw an improvement in confidence of

2 or more points.
• The relative share of respondents who are optimistic regarding job prospects
has declined marginally.
• There is significant heterogeneity across countries in terms of confidence levels,

yet the region maintains a relatively high level of confidence, and thus remains a
strong and buoyant consumer market.
In contrast to the general moderation in the region’s consumer confidence, two countries,
Australia and Malaysia, saw an improvement in confidence, with the magnitude of increase
being substantially greater in Malaysia. Consumers in Malaysia were considerably more
optimistic about job prospects, personal finances, and spending for the next 12 months.
Asia-Pacific
Low and declining inflation and a generally stable unemployment rate probably have helped
boost consumer sentiment in Malaysia. However, since the election in May, near-term
economic uncertainty in Malaysia has increased, which in turn might hamper consumer
sentiment in the upcoming months. Confidence went up moderately in Australia, with only
consumers’ perceptions of job prospects and their personal financial situation improving.
Consumers’ remain reluctant to spend, though there appears to be some positive
momentum possibly due to moderate declines in unemployment and inflation rates. Looking
ahead, further improvements in confidence may be impacted by opposing factors; falling
house prices and rising debt burden on the one hand, and the recent cuts in income taxes
on the other.
The region, especially China and India, still present strong growth
opportunities for consumer-centric businesses.
Confidence declined in most other Asia-Pacific countries, with the largest declines recorded
in Thailand, India, and Vietnam. Recession perception is mounting in Thailand, with 80
percent of respondents saying the country is currently in a recession. Nevertheless,
consumers are divided in their sentiment that Thailand will still be in recession in the next
12 months, with one-third saying yes and one-third saying no. In India, optimism regarding
personal finances and spending intentions have declined considerably. Increasing oil prices
have evoked pressure on inflation and macroeconomic prudence in India, which is likely to
have influenced consumer sentiment. Inflation fears amid rising oil prices are also impacting
consumer confidence and purchasing power in Vietnam. Despite the current weakening in
confidence, given the large potential for growth and consumer market expansion in these
economies, confidence is likely to stay at high levels in the coming months.
Some of the region’s more mature economies, such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea,
Taiwan Hong Kong, and New Zealand all saw moderate declines in confidence. In all these
countries, except in Hong Kong and New Zealand, the confidence levels are also relatively
low. In Japan, consumers’ optimism regarding their personal finances and job prospects
is fading, while pessimism over the future of the economy is rising. Consumers in Korea,
Taiwan, and Singapore are increasingly pessimistic about job prospects, personal finances,
and spending. Concerns over rising oil prices and the impact of a trade and tariff war
cast a cloud over the economic and consumer outlook in all these countries. While rising
household debt would add a further constraint to Korean consumers, high wages and strong
labor markets may be a positive for Singapore’s consumers.
The largest economy in the region, China, had a decline in confidence of 2 points, despite
the continuing role of consumption in supporting its economic growth. However, the level of
confidence remains relatively high, ranking 10th among all countries surveyed. As in the last
quarter, almost 70 percent of respondents consider job prospects as good, and 66 percent
consider their personal financial situation as good. There was a slight decline in the buying
tendency of consumers, but overall consumers remain positive. Even with several challenges,
including the uncertainties around trade tensions with the US and domestic financial
deleveraging, China’s large consumer market is likely to continue to offer businesses growth
opportunities.
Africa and the Middle East
Confidence improves but recession concerns persist

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST, Q2 2018: 93
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST, Q2 2018: 93
Morocco
70 Pakistan
Egypt 115
80 Saudi Arabia UAE
107 116
Q2 Q1 PT
2018 2018 CHG
Africa &
93 91 2
The Middle East
UAE 116 110 6
Pakistan 115 107 8
Saudi Arabia 107 95 12
South Africa 90 95 -5
Egypt 80 85 -5
Morocco 70 67 3
56 127 South Africa

90
In Africa and the Middle East, the overall consumer confidence index level improved by
2 points to 93 in the second quarter of this year, after a 1-point decline in the previous
quarter. Confidence remains lower than in Asia-Pacific and North America but is higher
than in Europe and Latin America. Improving confidence levels are indeed positive news
for consumer-oriented businesses that focus on the Middle East and African economies.
While some countries in the region already offer an affluent consumer market, others have
significant potential to expand their market base, which makes the region a promising
location for businesses.
• The overall consumer confidence in Africa and the Middle East improved in the
second quarter of 2018.
• The level of overall consumer confidence remains lower than Asia-Pacific, North
America, and the global average.
• Saudi Arabia had the largest gain in confidence, followed by Pakistan and the
United Arab Emirates. Confidence levels in these countries remain above 100.
• Morocco posted only a modest gain of 3 points, but confidence levels remain
well below the global or regional levels.
• Consumer confidence declined in only in two countries in the region, South

Africa and Egypt, by 5 points each
• Overall, consumers in the region are optimistic about their personal financial
situation, but less so about job prospects. Recession concerns persist.
The improvement in the overall index for the region was driven by a decline in pessimism
over spending intentions. Consumers’ perceptions about job prospects and their personal
finances for the next 12 months remained somewhat unchanged from last quarter, but
overall the region’s consumers remain pessimistic about spending and job prospects.
Moreover, the improvement was mixed. The largest economy in this group, Saudi Arabia,
had the largest gain in the region, followed by Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
while South Africa and Egypt experienced declines.
Improving confidence levels are indeed positive news for

consumer‑oriented businesses focused economies in the
Middle East and Africa.
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE already have an affluent consumer market exhibiting high and
improving confidence. Both countries are also trying to diversify their economies to reduce
the overreliance on oil, which includes attempts to stimulate investment—both individu-
ally and as a joint venture between the two countries. Rising oil prices and the consequent
improvement in income growth in Saudi Arabia has eased the government’s effort for fiscal
expansion, which helps boost consumption. Negative sentiment in the first quarter, perhaps
driven by the introduction of the value-added tax in January, seems to be dissipating, and
consumers are gaining confidence in both the economy and their financial situation. The
recent policy change allowing women in Saudi Arabia to drive might also be improving
consumer sentiment, as it might help boost automobile sales. Attempts are also being made
to boost tourism and infrastructure spending in the UAE, which bodes well for stimulating
consumer confidence further in the country. These efforts, along with the UAE’s continued
push to raise investment in the non-oil economy, is likely to help consumer confidence in the
upcoming months. In both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the prospects for consumer-centric
businesses are likely to persist.
In Pakistan, consumer confidence has reached an all-time high of 115, following an 8-point
increase. Consumers in Pakistan are increasingly optimistic about job prospects and their
personal financial situation. However, it is uncertain whether the high level of confidence
can be sustained in the future. Pakistan’s new government is likely to approach IMF for
assistance to address the country’s worsening external balance, which might lead to signifi-
cant fiscal and monetary tightening. This, along with rising consumer prices, will pose major
challenges to consumer confidence post-election.
Other countries, including Morocco and South Africa, still have low confidence levels, but
given the fact that these economies have significant growth potential, their consumer
markets are only likely to expand further.
Latin America
Confidence declines in half the region—pessimism over jobs

and spending persist
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR LATIN AMERICA, Q2 2018: 86
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR LATIN AMERICA, Q2 2018: 86
Mexico
96
Q2 Q1 PT
Costa Rica
2018 2018 CHG 87 Venezuela
Colombia 67
Latin America 86 88 -2 101
Colombia 101 99 2
Mexico 96 93 3
Peru Brazil
Chile 91 95 -4 90 81
Peru 90 95 -5
Costa Rica 87 83 4
Brazil 81 88 -7
Argentina 76 83 -7 Argentina
76
Venezuela 67 57 10
Chile
91
56 127
Consumer confidence in Latin America declined by 3 points in the second quarter of 2018,
ending its recent upward trend. Confidence gains in Venezuela, Costa Rica, Mexico, and
Colombia were not enough to offset the declines in the region’s larger countries, Argentina,
Brazil, Peru, and Chile. Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile together constitute about 60
percent of Latin America’s GDP and population, so declines in those countries do not
bode well for the region. Pessimism over job prospects, spending intensity, and even the
future of the economy persist across Latin America. Job prospects and spending intentions
appear to be the major factors driving down consumer sentiment in Latin America, with job
prospects being a major concern for a large portion of consumers in every country. Overall,
Latin American countries have a diverse set of issues, including political and economic
uncertainty, unemployment, inflation, and low economic growth, potentially posing more
challenges to businesses in the region in the short to medium term.
• After a 1-point increase in the first quarter, confidence declined by 2 points in

the second quarter to 86 points.
• Confidence declined considerably in Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile, while

improving in Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Venezuela.
• Argentina’s drop of 7 points is among the top-five largest declines globally. In

contrast, Latin America’s most troubled economy, Venezuela, was among the
top-five increases. Even so, Venezuelans’ confidence remains abysmally low.
• Concerns about job prospects in next 12 months, the state of the economy, and
spending intentions are persistent across Latin America.
Latin America
Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, is struggling to sustain its economic recovery,
and consumers’ confidence is in decline. Despite low inflation rates, high unemployment
has translated into increased pessimism about job prospects—77 percent of respondents
consider job prospects not so good, up from 67 percent in the last quarter. In addition, 87
percent of consumers feel Brazil is still in recession, and more than half of consumers do not
believe that the recession will be over in the next 12 months. The increasing economic and
political uncertainty in Brazil, driven by tightening global financial conditions, increases in
oil prices, and its upcoming national election are likely to worsen consumer sentiment in the
coming months.
Latin American countries have a diverse set of issues, including

political and economic uncertainty, unemployment, inflation, and
low economic growth, which pose more challenges to businesses in
the region in the short to medium term.
In Argentina, high inflation and unemployment combined with a weak economy, are all
negatively impacting consumer confidence. This country’s recent pledge to IMF to initiate
tough reforms and fiscal consolidation will have a short-term negative impact on growth,
which might further worsen consumer sentiment. The decline in Chile’s consumer confi-
dence is possibly driven by concern about job prospects, despite solid economic growth
and moderate inflationary pressure in the first quarter of this year. Job security, crime, and
debt top the list of concerns in Chile, and in contrast to all other Latin American economies,
the economy is not a top concern.
Surprisingly, in Venezuela, despite the political turmoil, accelerated sanctions from the
United States and depressed oil production, consumers’ optimism improved, resulting in an
increase in consumer confidence of 10 points to 67 in Q2 2018. Despite the large increase,
Venezuela still has the lowest confidence level in Latin America. The gain in Mexico’s
consumer confidence is likely to continue, as the political uncertainty in the country has
eased following July’s general election. Yet, the uncertainty about NAFTA renegotiations
will remain a drag on Mexico’s economic and consumer outlook.
North America
Confidence remained stable in Q2 but optimism over job

prospects declines
GLOBAL
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE
INDEX INDEX
FOR NORTH FOR NORTH
AMERICA, Q2 2018:AMERICA,
121 Q2 2018: 121
Q2 Q1 PT
2018 2018 CHG
US 123 123 0
Canada 102 103 -1
Canada
102
US
123
56 127
After reaching a historically high level of confidence at 121 in the first quarter of 2018,
North American consumers’ sentiment seems to have plateaued. Whereas consumer confi-
dence declined marginally by 1 point in Canada in the second quarter of 2018, it remained
unchanged in the US—thus keeping the region strong and stable.
• Consumer Confidence in North America remained unchanged, maintaining its

all-time high of 121.
• Consumer confidence decreased marginally by 1-point in Canada and was

unchanged in the United States.
• Confidence in Canada is lower than in the United States and other large
advanced economies like Germany and is likely to be affected by escalating
global trade tensions.
• Consumers in the region remain optimistic about job prospects, though

sentiment regarding job prospects has declined marginally.
• Concern over the economy has climbed to the top of consumers’ list of concerns,
up from fifth place in the last quarter when it was still behind personal health,
debt terrorism, and job security.
Consumers’ assessment of job prospects declined marginally compared to the last quarter,
yet overall they remain optimistic about job prospects for next 12 months. Compared to
the previous quarter, consumers concerns have shifted. Whereas the top concerns in the
first quarter were health, debt, and job security, concerns about the economy became most
prevalent on consumers’ list of concerns during the second quarter. Recession concerns
are not persistent in the region, and the share of respondents who think the country is in
recession remained the same at only 35 percent.
North America
Concern over job prospects remained largely unchanged in the US in the second quarter,
and the overall balance is still positive with 67 percent of respondents thinking that job
prospects are good compared to 27 percent who think otherwise. Consumers’ assessment
of their current personal financial situation improved marginally, and their spending inten-
tions, which compares their personal financial situation and current market conditions, did
not change. While the economy tops the list of concerns among US consumers, recessionary
worries were low, suggesting that strong economic and job growth in the US will continue to
support strong confidence readings. The levelling off in overall confidence index suggests
consumers do not foresee growth accelerating in the coming months. However, this is not
necessarily worrisome for businesses, as the level of confidence remains high compared to
historic levels, and when compared to other countries—both within emerging and advanced
economies.1
In general, consumer confidence in Canada is lower than in large advanced economies such
as the US and Germany and several emerging ones, yet it is higher compared to levels prior
to the global recession in 2008–2009. Perceptions about job prospects and consumers’
personal financial situations declined marginally. Spending intentions have declined slightly
more, perhaps due to rising inflation: the average inflation rate for the first five months of
2018 has been half a percent higher than the average for 2017; and interest rates. While
inflation would hamper consumers’ purchasing power directly, higher interest rates would
potentially raise the cost of debt—both developments would be bad for consumers’ discre-
tionary spending.2
High confidence levels in the US and Canada should continue to

support consumer spending in the upcoming months.
High confidence levels in the US and Canada should continue to support consumer
spending in the upcoming months. Yet, a shift in US trade policy could increase concerns
among consumers, as the onset of import tariffs would escalate domestic prices in the US.
If the import tariffs raise prices, and if businesses pass on the increase to consumers, it is
quite likely that consumers will cut back on their discretionary purchases. Also, a retaliation
to US tariff policies from trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico, and Europe would
hamper the US economy, which could also affect consumer sentiment in the future. The
trade war would escalate anxiety in Canada´s economic growth as well, which relies quite
heavily on exports to the United States. The resulting uncertainty amid rising inflation and
high borrowing costs could negatively impact consumer confidence in Canada.
1 The quarterly US data shown here are based on The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey
and are included to enable country/regional comparisons. These data and methodology differ from the Consumer
Confidence Survey® and Consumer Confidence Index® which are published monthly by The Conference Board. For
more information, see: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
2 The quarterly data for Canada shown here are based on The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey and are included to enable country/regional comparisons. These data and methodology differ from the Index
of Consumer Confidence, which are published monthly by The Conference Board of Canada. For more information,
see: https://www.conferenceboard.ca/topics/economics/Consumer_confidence.aspx
Europe
Confidence improved slightly in Q2, but most consumers believe

recessionary conditions will continue
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR EUROPE, Q2 2018: 87
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR EUROPE, Q2 2018: 87

Finland
Norway 83
92 Sweden Estonia
99 88
Latvia
Denmark 80 Russia
118 Lithuania
70
78
Ireland Netherlands Belarus
108 UK Poland 67
106 Germany 105
101
Belgium 107Czech Republic
Ukraine
91 108 Slovakia
Austria 93 62 Kazakhstan
FranceSwitzerland 101 Hungary 84
99 80 Romania
78 Slovenia
Italy 87 CroatiaSerbia 92
62 79
75 Bulgaria
Spain
85
Portugal Greece Turkey
92
85 67 88
Israel 56 127
102
Q2 Q1 PT Q2 Q1 PT Q2 Q1 PT Q2 Q1 PT
2018 2018 CHG 2018 2018 CHG 2018 2018 CHG 2018 2018 CHG
Europe 87 86 1 Austria 101 100 1 Estonia 88 81 7 Croatia 79 77 2
Denmark 118 114 4 UK 101 96 5 Turkey 88 89 -1 France 78 79 -1
Czech Sweden 99 99 0 Slovenia 87 81 6 Lithuania 78 77 1
108 108 0
Republic Switzerland 99 104 -5 Bulgaria 85 81 4 Serbia 75 74 1
Ireland 108 103 5 Slovakia 93 90 3 Portugal 85 90 -5 Russia 70 68 2
Germany 107 108 -1 Norway 92 89 3 Kazakhstan 84 79 5 Belarus 67 60 7
Netherlands 106 101 5 Romania 92 91 1 Finland 83 82 1 Greece 67 61 6
Poland 105 103 2 Spain 92 91 1 Hungary 80 78 2 Italy 62 66 -4
Israel 102 105 -3 Belgium 91 88 3 Latvia 80 86 -6 Ukraine 62 58 4
Europe is one of the two regions that showed a modest improvement in consumer confi-
dence (the other was Middle East & Africa). The aggregate improvement masks differences
across countries, but overall, confidence in the region remains much lower than other
regions of the globe. Long-term challenges to strengthen the buoyancy of its consumers
relative to other regions remain.
Improving yet low levels of confidence suggest a moderation in Europe’s consumer market,
though some markets remain favorable. Economies in several countries including Germany,
UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and smaller ones like Denmark, Ireland, and
Austria are among Europe’s hotspots which offer relatively stronger consumer markets.
Also, several European economies—both east and west—show an improving trend, which is
a promising signal.
Part of the drag on the European confidence level was driven by Russia, which accounts for
17 percent of the region’s population. In addition, several populous countries such as Italy
and France, and several Eastern European economies, also have low levels of confidence. And
finally, Germany, the largest economy in the region, showed a modest decline in consumer
confidence, though from a much higher level than most other European economies.
Europe
• Europe’s confidence level increased slightly by 1 point from 86 to 87 in the

second quarter, recouping the loss from the first quarter. The increase was
primarily driven by a small decline in the pessimism over job prospects.
• On average, Europeans’ perceptions on job prospects, personal finances, and

spending are unchanged from the previous quarter, but pessimists continue to
outweigh optimists.
• Despite improved conditions in the past two years, consumers in nearly half of
the European economies currently believe that their country is in recession, and
most believe these recessionary conditions will continue in the next 12 months.
• The economy has now moved up to first place in consumer’s list of concerns,
up from third position last quarter.
• The Netherlands, the UK, and Greece all posted significant gains in confidence,
suggesting an improving consumer outlook.
• Of the 34 European economies, 8 countries showed declines, which included

three of the largest economies in the regions, namely Italy, France, and Germany.
European perceptions about personal financial situations, spending, and the state of the
economy did not change significantly compared to the previous quarter. In general, the
percentage of pessimistic consumers outweigh the percentage of optimistic ones on all
these aspects. Nevertheless, a modest decline in the share of negative perceptions on job
prospects helped create a marginal gain in overall confidence.
In the Netherlands, the consistent decline in the unemployment rate, resulting in a tight-
ening labor market, moderate inflation, and gradually increasing wages has supported
consumer sentiment. In the UK, general optimism among British consumers has improved,
though marginally, on all fronts—job prospects, personal finances, and the economy. This
echoes the momentum in second quarter GDP growth and improvement in job growth,
which is probably part of the long wave of the strong European economy during 2017. It is
uncertain, however, whether the momentum in jobs, which are mostly part-time jobs, will be
sufficient to sustain improvements in confidence levels and offset an increasingly uncertain
political and economic environment as Brexit negotiations continue. The Conference
Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the UK is increasingly pointing in the direction of
an upcoming recession. In Greece, consumers seem to have been influenced by the slow
increases in prices, improving economy, and still high but declining unemployment rates.
The recent EU agreement to extend debt relief might further help to buoy sentiment in the
coming months.
Confidence declined in 8 out of 34 European countries. Larger Western European

economies such as France and Germany experienced marginal declines in consumer
confidence, while Israel, and politically unsettled Turkey saw somewhat larger decreases.
Declines in Latvia, Portugal, Switzerland, and Italy were more pronounced.
While the share of consumers who are positive on the three consumer-related questions—
job prospects, personal finances, and spending intentions—remains high in Germany, which
helps its consumer confidence stay above 100, it is not the case in Europe’s two other large
economies, Italy and France. Positive sentiments on job prospects declined in France and
Italy, and perceptions of personal finances and spending intentions declined in Germany
Europe
and Italy; thus, the overall index declined everywhere. Rising concerns about unemployment
amid fears of a slowing recovery in France seem to have translated into less optimism about
job prospects compared to the previous quarter. The Conference Board Global Economic
Outlook forecasts 0.2 percentage point lower growth in France in 2018 compared to 2017.
In Italy, persistently high levels of unemployment at about 11 percent, gradually increasing
prices, uncertainty regarding economic policy, and political stability could all be nega-
tively impacting sentiment. At the time of this survey, the political deadlock in Italy was still
persistent, which might have figured in consumers’ evaluations. Economic recovery in Italy
has also lost its momentum, with signals suggesting further slowing in Q2. If unemployment
remains high and prices continue to rise, Italy will struggle to boost confidence in the next
quarters. The political and economic environment in Turkey is also worsening and is not
conducive to improving confidence in the short term.
The trend in regional consumer confidence suggests a moderation

in Europe’s consumer market, though some markets including
Germany, UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Ireland, and Austria remain favorable.
Personal finances are perceived to be an issue by consumers in Western European

economies such as Finland, France, Greece, Italy, and Norway; in Eastern European
countries such as Belarus, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Portugal, Serbia, and Ukraine;
and in Russia and Turkey. All the above mentioned Western European economies, except
Norway, also expressed concerns about job prospects. In Eastern Europe, consumers in
all countries except in Poland expressed pessimism over job prospects, despite low and
decreasing unemployment rates and sustained wage growth.
In 15 of 34 European countries, consumers are concerned about the current state of the
economy, with a relatively large portion—varying from 53 percent in Bulgaria, Hungary, and
Latvia to 92 percent in Ukraine—saying their country is currently in recession. Even more
pronounced is the concern over the future of the economy, which is quite pessimistic across
Europe. The Czech Republic is an exception, where the optimism and pessimism on the
future of the economy are somewhat evenly balanced. In general, with a low unemployment
rate, consumers in this country are quite optimistic on all other aspects—the current state of
the economy, employment prospects, and personal finances—and maintain a high level of
confidence at 108.
Consumers’ top concerns for the region over the next six months have shifted somewhat
since last quarter. Now, the economy, health, and job security are cited as top concerns,
compared to last quarter when the economy was third after job security and health.
Global Consumer Confidence Index by Region and Country
Q2 Q1 Point Q2 Q1 Point
2018 2018 Change 2018 2018 Change
Global Consumer Europe 87 86 1
Confidence Index 104 106 -2
Austria 101 100 1
Asia-Pacific 112 115 -3
Belarus 67 60 7
Australia 93 91 2
Belgium 91 88 3
China 113 115 -2
Hong Kong 105 107 -2 Bulgaria 85 81 4
India 124 130 -6 Croatia 79 77 2

Indonesia 127 127 0 Czech Republic 108 108 0
Japan 83 86 -3 Denmark 118 114 4
Malaysia 117 104 13 Estonia 88 81 7
New Zealand 102 104 -2 Finland 83 82 1
Philippines 127 128 -1 France 78 79 -1
Singapore 94 97 -3 Germany 107 108 -1
South Korea 56 59 -3 Greece 67 61 6
Taiwan 76 79 -3 Hungary 80 78 2
Thailand 102 110 -8
Ireland 108 103 5
Vietnam 120 124 -4
Israel 102 105 -3
Africa & The Middle East 93 91 2 Italy 62 66 -4
Egypt 80 85 -5 Kazakhstan 84 79 5
Morocco 70 67 3 Latvia 80 86 -6
Pakistan 115 107 8 Lithuania 78 77 1
Saudi Arabia 107 95 12 Netherlands 106 101 5
South Africa 90 95 -5 Norway 92 89 3
UAE 116 110 6 Poland 105 103 2
Portugal 85 90 -5
Latin America 86 88 -2
Romania 92 91 1
Argentina 76 83 -7
Russia 70 68 2
Brazil 81 88 -7
Serbia 75 74 1
Chile 91 95 -4
Slovakia 93 90 3
Colombia 101 99 2
Costa Rica 87 83 4 Slovenia 87 81 6
Mexico 96 93 3 Spain 92 91 1
Peru 90 95 -5 Sweden 99 99 0
Venezuela 67 57 10 Switzerland 99 104 -5
Turkey 88 89 -1
UK 101 96 5
Canada 102 103 -1 Ukraine 62 58 4
US 123 123 0
About The Conference Board® Global Consumer About Nielsen
Confidence Survey Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global measure
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence ment and data analytics company that provides the
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. It was most complete and trusted view available of consumers
conducted in May 2018 and polled more than 32,000 and markets worldwide. Our approach marries pro-
online consumers in 64 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, prietary Nielsen data with other data sources to help
Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North
clients around the world understand what’s happening
America. The sample includes internet users who agreed to
now, what’s happening next, and how to best act on
participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and
gender for each country. It is weighted to be representative
this knowledge. For more than 90 years Nielsen has
of internet consumers by country. Because the sample is provided data and analytics based on scientific rigor and
based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of innovation, continually developing new ways to answer
theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a the most important questions facing the media, adver-
probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of tising, retail and fast-moving consumer goods industries.
error of ±0.6% at the global level. This survey is based only An S&P 500 company, Nielsen has operations in over
on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet 100 countries, covering more than 90% of the world’s
penetration rates vary by country. The Conference Board uses population. For more information, visit
a minimum reporting standard of 60% internet penetration www.nielsen.com.
or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion.
The Nielsen China Consumer Confidence Index is sourced
from a separate survey conducted by Nielsen China, which
is based on a mixed methodology survey of more than 2,400
respondents in China. The Global Consumer Confidence
Survey was established in 2005.
Note: The quarterly US data shown here are based on The Conference
Board ® Global Consumer Confidence Survey and are included to enable
About The Conference Board country/regional comparisons. These data and methodology differ
from the Consumer Confidence Survey ® and Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board is a global, independent business Index® which are published monthly by The Conference Board. For
membership and research association working in the public more information, see: https://www.conference-board.org/data/
interest. Our mission is unique: to provide the world’s leading consumerconfidence.cfm
organizations with the practical knowledge they need to
Note: The quarterly data for Canada shown here are based on The
improve their performance and better serve society. Winner Conference Board ® Global Consumer Confidence Survey and are
of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award included to enable country/regional comparisons. These data and
(US), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit methodology differ from the Index of Consumer Confidence, which
entity, holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the USA. are published monthly by The Conference Board of Canada. For more
information, see: https://www.conferenceboard.ca/topics/economics/
http://www.conferenceboard.org Consumer_confidence.aspx
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Global Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board ® Global Consumer Confidence Survey

Global Consumer Confidence Moves Downward for First Time

Russia Sweden Russia

Confidence across the globe Q2 Q1 PT

there is large variation across countries.

Confidence across regions

A moderation in consumer optimism

Globally, consumers were less enthusiastic about job prospects, their

Country Rank Q2 2018 Country Rank Q2 2018

Indonesia 1 127127 Romania 33 92 92

Consumers remain confident despite slight overall decline—

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q2 2018: 112

Malaysia 117 104 13 Malaysia

New Zealand 102 104 -2

• Only two countries, Australia and Malaysia, saw an improvement in confidence of

• There is significant heterogeneity across countries in terms of confidence levels,

Africa and the Middle East

Confidence improves but recession concerns persist

56 127 South Africa

• Consumer confidence declined in only in two countries in the region, South

Improving confidence levels are indeed positive news for

Confidence declines in half the region—pessimism over jobs

• After a 1-point increase in the first quarter, confidence declined by 2 points in

• Confidence declined considerably in Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile, while

• Argentina’s drop of 7 points is among the top-five largest declines globally. In

Latin American countries have a diverse set of issues, including

Confidence remained stable in Q2 but optimism over job

• Consumer Confidence in North America remained unchanged, maintaining its

• Consumer confidence decreased marginally by 1-point in Canada and was

• Consumers in the region remain optimistic about job prospects, though

High confidence levels in the US and Canada should continue to

Confidence improved slightly in Q2, but most consumers believe

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR EUROPE, Q2 2018: 87

• Europe’s confidence level increased slightly by 1 point from 86 to 87 in the

• On average, Europeans’ perceptions on job prospects, personal finances, and

• Of the 34 European economies, 8 countries showed declines, which included

Confidence declined in 8 out of 34 European countries. Larger Western European

The trend in regional consumer confidence suggests a moderation

Personal finances are perceived to be an issue by consumers in Western European

Global Consumer Confidence Index by Region and Country

India 124 130 -6 Croatia 79 77 2

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