Course Title : Business Statistics I

Rania GOUJA
FRESHMAN G10

Assignment #4: Probability Part2

Exercise #7

Arthur Andersen Enterprise Group/National Small Business United, Washington, conducted a

national survey of small-business owners to determine the challenges for growth for their
businesses. The top challenge, selected by 46% of the small business owners, was the
economy. A close second was finding qualified workers (37%). Suppose 15% of the small
business owners selected both the economy and finding qualified workers as challenges for
growth. A small-business owner is randomly selected.
Let: A=’ the business owner choose the economy’  P(A) = 0.46
B= ‘ the business owner choose “finding qualified workers”’  P(B) = 0.37
P(A and B) = 0.15
a. What is the probability that the owner believes the economy is a challenge for growth
if the owner believes that finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth?
P ( A∧B ) 0.15
P ( A ⇂ B)= = =0. 405
P (B ) 0.37
b. What is the probability that the owner believes that finding qualified workers is a
challenge for growth if the owner believes that the economy is a challenge for growth?
P ( A∧B ) 0.15
P (B ⇂ A)= = =0.326
P ( A) 0.46
c. Given that the owner doesnot select the economy as a challenge for growth, what is
the probability that the owner believes that finding qualified workers is a challenge for
growth?
P ( A ' ∧B ) P ( B )−P( B∧ A) 0.37−0.15
P (B ⇂ A ')= = = =0. 407
P ( A ') 1−P( A) 1−0.46
d. What is the probability that the owner believes neither that the economy is a challenge
for growth nor that finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth?
P ( A ' ∧B' )=P ( A' )−P ( A ' ∧B )=P ( A ' )−P ( B| A ' )∗P ( A' ) =0.54−0.407∗0.54=0.32

Exercise #8

Accounting Today reported that 37% of accountants purchase their computer hardware by
mail order direct and that 54% purchase their computer software by mail order direct.
Suppose that 97% of the accountants who purchase their computer hardware by mail order
direct purchase their computer software by mail order direct.
If an accountant is randomly selected, determine the following probabilities:
Let A:”the accountant purchases his computer hardware by mail order direct”
P(A) = 0.37
B:”the accountant purchases his computer software by mail order direct”P(B) = 0.54
“97% of the accountants who purchase their computer hardware by mail order direct
purchase their computer software by mail order direct” P(B’A)=0.97
a. The accountant does not purchase his computer software by mail order direct given
that he does purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct.
P ( A∧B' ) P ( A ) −P ( B∧ A ) P ( A )−P ( B| A )∗P (A )
P ( B '| A ) = = = =1−P ( B| A )=1−0.97=0.03
P ( A) P( A ) P( A )
b. The accountant does purchase his computer software by mail order direct given that he
does not purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct.
P(B∧ A' ) P ( B )−P( B∧ A) 0.54−0.97∗0.37
P ( B| A ' )= = = =0.2875
P( A' ) 1−P( A) 0.63
c. The accountant does not purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct if it is
known that he does purchase his computer software by mail order direct.
P(B∧ A' ) 0.1811
P ( A ' |B )= = =0.335
P( B) 0.54
d. The accountant does not purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct if it is
known that he does not purchase his computer software by mail order direct.
P(B'∧ A' ) P ( A ' )−P (B∧ A ' ) 0.63−0.97∗0.37
P ( A ' |B ' )= = = =0.5893
P (B ' ) P( B ') 0.46

Exercise #9

In a manufacturing plant, machine A produces 10% of a certain product, machine B produces

40% of this product, and machine C produces 50% of this product. Five percent of machine A
products are defective, 12% of machine B products are defective, and 8% of machine C
products are defective. The company inspector has just sampled a product from this plant and
has found it to be defective.
Determine the revised probabilities that the sampled product was produced by machine A,
machine B, or machine C.
Let: A:’ the product is manufactured by machine A’P(A)=0.1 and P(DA)=0.05
B:’ the product is manufactured by machine B’P(B)=0.4 and P(DB)=0.12
C:’ the product is manufactured by machine C’P(C)=0.5 and P(DC)=0.08
D:’the product is defective’
P(A and D)= P(A)*P(DA) = 0.10*0.05= 0.005
P(B and D)= P(B)*P(DB)=0.4*0.12=0.048
P(C and D)= P(C)*P(DC)= 0.5*0.08= 0.04
P(D) = P(A and D) +P(B and D)+ P(C and D) = 0.005+0.048+0.04=0.093
P ( A∧D)
P( A D)= =0. 0 5376
P( D)
P( B∧D)
P( B D)= = 0.5161
P( D)
P(C∧D)
P(C D)= =0.4301
P( D)