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AFGHANISTAN’S POST-WITHDRAWAL CONUNDRUM

It’s been 40 years since the Iranian Revolution took place that gave birth to a
disorder in the Middle East and entirely altered its balance of power landscape.
The key players: both Saudi Arabia and Iran have long coveted for supremacy and
domination over the other but they have come across an endless conflict that seems
unlikely to be fixed as yet. Be it any civil war, uprising or insurgency; Iran and
Saudi Arabia always seem to be involved. The real tension began when Ayatollah
Khomeini came into power, sparking a rivalry between the two theological states.
The Middle East has since been smoldering as this conflict had a devastating effect
on the region.
What the policymakers must concern more is not the cold war of Iran and Saudi
Arabia, but the emergence of a new key player in the region. Alike the radical
regime of Iran that rose after ousting the last Shah of Iran; the Taliban are set to
plug the power vacuum left after the withdrawal of the United States from
Afghanistan. They have been successful in bringing the Allied forces to a stalemate
despite the military might that the latter possesses. America too seems to have
realized the political weight of Afghanistan after losing $ 1 trillion in the Afghan
War.
Although Zalmay Khalilzad is confident that until everything is agreed, nothing is
agreed. Moreover, he also affirms that a complete ceasefire is guaranteed after the
withdrawal and Taliban will be forced into peaceful politics. Despite all the
apparent diplomacy, the Taliban strenuously want the Americans to withdraw from
their homeland at all costs and in future, even if they break their vows, the
Americans will be reluctant to come back.
The U.S. shall remain coy about the Afghanistan it will leave behind for the region,
with the Taliban still not defeated and a hasty peace deal in progress. Presumably,
it seems that the Taliban are in want of peace after a long-afflicted war and are
ready to negotiate if a withdrawal is assured. Still, the post-withdrawal Afghanistan
raises a myriad of apprehensions about regional stability. A shift in regional
paradigm can be contemplated and the Taliban will certainly be given a chance to
choose their foes and associates. As far as now, Iran seems to have an influential
role in bringing the Taliban to the table and will continue to foment a cordial
relationship with the fighters. Pakistan, Russia, China, India, and Saudi Arabia will
also try to incline the Taliban towards their flank. Conflicts are likely to break out
as proxy wars might find a center stage in Afghanistan where the scrimmage for
influence and control might dispel the peace. Above all, the stark verity of the Pre-
9/11 Afghan civil war is a lesson for the pragmatic ones.
How vulnerable are Afghan forces in the post-withdrawal scenario is obscure, and
vital to comprehend before sealing any conclusive agreement with the Taliban.
Iran, actively participating in the Afghan peace process has oversight the Afghan
Army capability. Iran’s Army is a robust, resourceful, and a potentially developing
nuclear power as opposed to the Afghan forces. The Afghan army is characterized
by a staggering 47 percent desertion rate of trainees in the US, and 18 percent
serving officers as highlighted in the SIGAR report. Human resource productivity
and utilization in the battlefield is essential to plan; despite, funneling a mounting
$41.8 billion on training the Afghan army, it has withered in war. Their defeat
could be traced to the frail Human intelligence resource. In asymmetric (4 th
generation warfare) guerilla warfare, technological advancement, and evolving
cyber warfare - it is pivotal to equip the soldiers with the expertise, and knowledge
to combat terrorism. Afghanistan does not have a NACTA like intelligence
apparatus which has coordinated successful operations from Zarb ae Azb to Radd
ul Fasaad in Pakistan. Undoubtedly, the NDS (National Directorate of Security) of
Afghanistan has the topnotch digital intelligence equipment but lacks Human
Resource development for clandestine operations.
Afghan army possesses low morale and is financially dependent upon the USA,
and other NATO powers. Rife with corruption, nepotism, and ineffective war
strategies, the Afghan National Army is imploding under its own structure; a
staring reality in this regard is the statement of Major General Richard Caiser, the
Combined Security Transition Commander, who claims to have erased names of
30000 ghost soldiers mostly in the 215th Corps of Afghan Army. Fuel, food, and
weapons pilferage all amount to the rising attrition rate of ANA as their officers
are interested in plundering money rather than fighting this menace. Ghost Soldiers
in records are an antic to tax the public and extract money from them even though
these are fictitious personnel. Additionally, one cannot plan operations with
inaccurate, and unverifiable records of troop strength, therefore, this aids those
who are exacerbating the war rather than resolving it. In 2015, SIGAR emphasized
upon Audit of Afghan National Army since $300 million was given as Ghost
Soldier salaries to the Afghan army which is alarming for the US as well as local
Afghanis.
The Afghan security forces have to chalk out a framework to keep at bay their
adversaries in Post-war withdrawal. Taliban are not the only actors in the war in
Afghanistan rather ISIS, TTP, and multifarious movements are garnering for
power dominance in Afghanistan. In my perspective, the mindset of the officers,
and commanders need to be widened in defense, Intelligence, cyber networking,
and war studies through joint courses in foreign institutes in the USA particularly,
in context of guerilla warfare. Only after successful reduction in war causalities
should the US withdraw; Since it can not only affect the Afghan government but
the ample sum of money flooded on the training of Afghan forces would be
squandered. Similarly, over 70000 lives of the soldiers along with people of
Afghanistan have been rendered in the war against terrorism; such pandemonium
could have been averted through timely negotiations. Apprehensions pertaining to
the internal strife within the Afghan army fabric will escalate with chances of a
renewed hotbed of war. There are numerous families who would not accede to
Taliban rule losing their loved ones.
An unforgiving and the relentless vicious cycle of warfare would not cease without
the consensus of all stakeholders. Russia, India, China, and the Middle Eastern
actors all will grapple for supremacy over Afghanistan minerals through lobbying
for puppet governments. Today, in Trump’s presidency, America is striking a deal
with the Taliban without the Afghan government on board. Surprisingly, the
government along with other people with whom the US cooperated before
negotiations are all vying for a post-departure political plan which can evolve a
perilous hotchpotch of competing parties in Afghanistan. Through history, it is an
established norm that the US withdraws leaving behind chaos, muddle, and limb.
Developing nations like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Egypt all left in tatters owing to US
involvement in Arab Spring.