TME552 Part II - L5 - 1st Mar 2020

TME552: Management of Maintenance
Systems (MMS)
Part II: RAMS
(Lecture 5 – 1st March, 2020)
Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Assistant Professor, Exchange Coordinator
Mechanical and Maintenance Engineering Department
German Jordanian University

Context of the Course
Failures in industries
Part I
Introduction
Course Outline

Reliability
Availability RAMS
Part II
Maintainability
Safety
Intervention
Approaches
Part III
Decision-Making
TME552
Maintenance
Strategies
Fault Tree Analysis
Event Tree Analysis

Risk
TME552 Course Tree Plan
Part IV
Assessment
Failure Modes, Effects

and Criticality Analysis
Cost Estimations
Scheduling
Part V
Management
Maintenance
CMMS
Context of the Course
Failures in industries
Part I
Introduction
Course Outline

Reliability
Availability RAMS
Part II
Maintainability
Safety
Intervention
Approaches
Part III
Decision-Making
TME552
Maintenance
Strategies
Fault Tree Analysis
Event Tree Analysis

Risk
TME552 Course Tree Plan
Part IV
Assessment
Failure Modes, Effects

and Criticality Analysis
Cost Estimations
Scheduling
Part V
Management
Maintenance
CMMS
System Reliability
- A system is a collection of components arranged according to a specific

design in order to achieve desired functions with acceptable performance
and reliability measures.
- The types of components used, their qualities, and the design configuration
(the way in which the individual components are connected and arranged)
have a direct influence on the overall system performance and its overall
reliability.
- For instance, the designer may use a fewer number of higher quality
components (made of prime materials) and connect/arrange/configure them
in a way to result in a highly reliable system, or the designer may use a
larger number of lower quality components and connect/arrange/configure
them in a different way in order to achieve the same level of overall
performance and overall reliability.

System Reliability
- A system configuration may be simple as a:

1. Series system (all components are connected in series);
Series
1 2

System Reliability

2. Parallel system (all components are connected in parallel);
Parallel

System Reliability

3. Series-Parallel; Parallel-Series; or mixed series-parallel (where some
components are connected in series while the others are in parallel);
Mixed Series and Parallel
2
1
3

System Reliability

4. Complex configuration such as networks.
Complex
2
1
3
4 5

System Reliability

4. Complex configuration such as networks.
5. Standby
Standby
Switch

System Reliability
- Once the system is configured, its reliability must be evaluated and

compared with an acceptable reliability level.
- If it does not meet the required level, the system should be redesigned and
its reliability should be revaluated.
- The design process continues until the system meets the desired
performance measures and reliability level.

System Reliability
Objective:
Computation of the reliability for a complete system, 𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 .
Hypotheses:
• 𝑁 = Number of system components.

• The components’ reliabilities 𝑅𝑖 𝑡 , 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 are known or can be
calculated:
o 𝑝𝑖 : Probability of 𝑖-th component of being functioning.
o 𝑞𝑖 = 1 − 𝑝𝑖 : Probability of 𝑖-th component of being failed.
• The system configuration is known.
• Example is shown below:
1 2 6
4 5
System Reliability
Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)

- The first step in evaluating the system’s reliability is to construct its Reliability
Block Diagram (RBD)
- RBD is a graphical representation (also called a logical diagram) of the

components that compose the system and how they are connected to each
other, which are the inputs and the outputs of each component and the flow
in which the system works.
- A block (hereafter represented by a rectangle) does not show any details of

the component or the subsystem it represents.
- Example of 4 components connected in mixed series-parallel configuration:

2
1
3
4
Introduction
Five basic system model types
Series Parallel
1 2 1
Mixed Series and Parallel Complex
2 2
1
1
3
3
6
4 4 5

System Reliability
Series System
• All N components must function for the system to function (the series system
fails as long as any one of the components fails):
Input 1 2 3 … N Output
• Typical applications are:

• Some computer networks
• Multi-cell batteries
• Decorative tree lights.

System Reliability
Series System
• All N components must function for the system to function (the series system
fails as long as any one of the components fails):
Input 1 2 3 … N Output
𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦 = ෑ 𝑝𝑖

𝑖=1
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = ෑ 𝑅𝑖 (𝑡)
𝑖=1

System Reliability: in brief
Series System
1 2 3 … N
• All N components must function for the system to function:
• The system fails at 𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑡1 , 𝑡2 , … , 𝑡𝑁 ), where 𝑡𝑖 is the failure time of the 𝑖-th
component.

System Reliability
Example 1
Consider a series system that consists of three components and the probabilities
that components 1,2, and 3 being operational are 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75, respectively.
Estimate the overall system reliability.

System Reliability
Solution 1
Assuming independent failures among the components. The overall system’s

reliability is:
𝑅 = 0.9x0.8x0.75 = 0.54
Notice that the overall system’s reliability is less than the reliability of the worst
component (0.75).
One can also be able to calculate the overall failure probability either by:
𝑃 = 1 − 𝑅 = 1 − 0.54 = 0.46
Or by:
𝑃 = 1 − (1 − 0.9)x(1 − 0.8)x(1 − 0.75) = 0.46

System Reliability
Example 2
A system consists of 4 components connected in series. Two components have

reliabilities of 0.9 at time t=1 year, where the other two components have
reliabilities of 0.8 at time t=1 year.
What is the overall reliability of the system at time t=1 year?

System Reliability
Solution 2
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑅1 𝑡 x𝑅2 𝑡 x𝑅3 𝑡 x𝑅4 𝑡
@ 𝑡 = 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 0.92 x 0.8 2

= 0.5184

System Reliability
Example 3
A simple computer consists of a processor, a bus and a memory. The computer

will work only if all three are functioning correctly. The probability that the
processor is functioning is 0.99, that the bus is functioning 0.95, and that the
memory is functioning is 0.99.
Calculate the probability that the computer will work?

System Reliability
Solution 3
Input Processor Bus Memory Output
The probability that the computer will work is:
𝑃 = 0.99x0.95x0.99 = 0.893475
So even though all the components have above 95% or more reliability, the overall
Reliability of the computer is less that 90%.
So, in series system, it is important for all components to have high reliabilities,
especially when the system has a large number of components, as we shall see
later.
System Reliability
Example 4
A system consists of 5 components in series each having a reliability of 0.97. What

is the reliability of the system?
Input C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 Output

System Reliability
Solution 4
Input C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 Output
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑅5 = 0.975 = 0.86

System Reliability
Solution 4
Input C1 C2 … C4 C6 Output
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑅6 = 0.976 = 0.832972
Input C1 C2 … C4 C7 Output
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑅7 = 0.977 = 0.8079828

System Reliability
Solution 4
With series systems, reliability decreases as the number of components increases.

System Reliability
Example 5
An electronic product contains 100 integrated circuits. The probability that any
integrated circuit is defective is .001 and the integrated circuits are independent.
The product operates only if all the integrated circuits are operational. What is the
probability that the product is operational?

System Reliability
Solution 5
The probability that any component is functioning is .999. Since the product
operates only if all 100 components are operational, the probability that the 100
components are functioning is:
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = (1 − 0.001)100 = 0.999100 = 0.9047921
The reliability is just over 90% even though each component has a reliability of
99.9%.
Bearing in mind that computing and electrical systems have hundreds or

thousands of components, a series formation on its own will never be sufficiently
reliable, no matter how high the individual component reliability is.
The components need to be backed up in parallel.

System Reliability
Example 6
A truck cab assembly line is under development. The line will utilize five welding
robots:
1. If each robot has 0.95 reliability, what is the total robot system reliability for the
line?
2. To have a robot system reliability of 0.95., what must each individual robot’s
reliability be?

System Reliability
Solution 6
1. If each robot has 0.95 reliability, what is the total robot system reliability for the
line?
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = (0.95)5 = 0.7738

System Reliability
Solution 6
2. To have a robot system reliability of 0.95., what must each individual robot’s
reliability be?
5
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 0.95 = 𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡
1
𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 0.95 5 = 0.9898 Comment?

System Reliability
Important Note
For the series configuration, the overall reliability of the system is
smaller than the reliability of each individual component.

Introduction
Series Parallel
1 2 1
2 2
1
1
3
3
6
4 4 5

System Reliability
Parallel System (Redundant System)

• All N components must fail for the system to fail (the parallel system works as
long as any one of the individual components works):
2
Input Output
…
N
• Typical applications are:
• Jet engines, braking systems.
• Tires in Trucks, Projector light bulbs.

System Reliability
Parallel System (Redundant System)

• All N components must fail for the system to fail:
2
Input Output
…
N
𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦 =

𝑁
1 − 𝑃 𝑛𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦 = 1 − ෑ[1 − 𝑝𝑖 ]

𝑖=1
𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − ෑ[1 − 𝑅𝑖 (𝑡)]
𝑖=1
System Reliability: in brief
Parallel System
1
2
…
N
• All N components must fail for the system to fail:
• Since the system fails when all its elements fail, the time-to-failure of the
system is 𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑡1 , 𝑡2 , … , 𝑡𝑁 ), where 𝑡𝑖 is the failure time of the 𝑖-th component.

System Reliability[6]
Example 1
Consider a system that consists of three components in parallel. The probabilities

of the three components being operational are 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75. Determine the
overall system reliability.

Solution 1
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 1 − 1 − 0.9 . 1 − 0.8 . 1 − 0.75 = 0.995
Notice that the reliability of the parallel system is greater than the reliability of the
most reliable component. This may imply that the more components we have in
parallel, the more reliable the system will be. This statement is valid only for
systems whose components exist only in two states (operational or failure).
However, there is an optimum number of multistate components to be connected
in parallel, and adding more components in parallel might result in lower values of
the reliability.

Example 2
A system consists of 5 components in parallel. If each component has a reliability

of 0.97, what is the overall reliability of the system?
Input 2 Output
…
5

Solution 2
System will function provided at least one of the 5 components works:
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔)
Taking the complementary approach,
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 1 − 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙)
Therefore:
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 1 − 1 − 0.97 5 = 0.999999975700000~1.00000

Solution 2
With 2 components Rel = 1 − 0.032 = 0.9991

Reliability of a parallel system with increasing number of components: component

reliability = .97.

Solution 2
The rate of increase in reliability with each additional component decreases as the
number of components increases.

System Reliability
Important Note
For the parallel configuration, the overall reliability of the system is
greater than the reliability of each individual component.

Introduction
Series Parallel
1 2 1
2 2
1
1
3
3
6
4 4 5

Example 1
Calculate the reliability of the following system? The probability that each device
functions is shown on the graph. Assume the devices fail independently.
0.70
0.75
Input 0.95 0.95 0.90 Output
0.70
0.75
0.70

Solution 1
Calculate the reliability of the following system? The probability that each device
functions is shown on the graph. Assume the devices fail independently.
0.70
0.75
Input 0.95 0.95 0.90 Output
0.70
0.75
0.70
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = 0.95x0.95x 1 − 1 − 0.7 3 x 1 − 1 − 0.75 2 x0.9

= 0.7409243

Example 2
Suppose that in the system shown below, the two components have the same
cost, and their reliabilities are 𝑅1 = 0.7 and 𝑅2 = 0.95 , respectively. If it is
permissible to add two components to the system, would it be preferable to a)
replace component 1 by three components in parallel or b) to replace components
1 and 2 each by simple parallel systems?
Input 0.70 0.95 Output

Solution 2
Let us first compute the reliability of the system as it is, then:
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑅1 . 𝑅2 = 0.70x0.95 = 0.665

Solution 2
a) If component 1 is replaced by three components in parallel, then:
0.70
0.70
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = 1 − 1 − 𝑅1 3 . 𝑅2 = 0.973x0.95 = 0.92435

Solution 2
b) If each of the two components is replaced by a simple parallel system,

then:
0.70 0.95
Input Output
0.70 0.95
2 2
𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = 1 − 1 − 𝑅1 . 1 − 1 − 𝑅2 = 0.91x0.9975 = 0.9077

RAMS
Software

System Reliability
Exercise 1
The guidance system of a ship is controlled by a computer that has three

major modules. In order for the computer to function properly, all three
modules must function. Two of the modules have reliabilities of 0.99 and the
other has a reliability of 0.97.
a) What is the reliability of the computer?

b) A back up computer identical to the one being used will be installed in
parallel to improve the overall reliability. Determine the resulting
reliability?
c) If the back up computer must be activated by a switch in the event that
the first computer fails, and the switch has a reliability of 0.98, what is the
overall reliability of the system?

System Reliability: Exercises
Exercise 2
53

System Reliability: Exercises
Exercise 3
54

References
[1] http://nptel.ac.in/courses/112107142/26
[2] Zio E., An introduction to the basics of reliability and risk analysis, Volume
13 of Series on quality, reliability & engineering statistics, World Scientific,
2007.
[3] https://www.weibull.com/hotwire/issue79/relbasics79.htm

Thank You
Assistant Professor, Exchange Coordinator
Mechanical and Maintenance Engineering Department
GJU
sameer.aldahidi@gju.edu.jo
56

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TME552: Management of Maintenance

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Fault Tree Analysis

Event Tree Analysis

Failure Modes, Effects

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Fault Tree Analysis

Event Tree Analysis

Failure Modes, Effects

- A system is a collection of components arranged according to a specific

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

- A system configuration may be simple as a:

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

- A system configuration may be simple as a:

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

- A system configuration may be simple as a:

Mixed Series and Parallel

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

- A system configuration may be simple as a:

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

- A system configuration may be simple as a:

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

- Once the system is configured, its reliability must be evaluated and

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Computation of the reliability for a complete system, 𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 .

• 𝑁 = Number of system components.

Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)

- RBD is a graphical representation (also called a logical diagram) of the

- A block (hereafter represented by a rectangle) does not show any details of

- Example of 4 components connected in mixed series-parallel configuration:

Five basic system model types

Mixed Series and Parallel Complex

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

• Typical applications are:

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦 = ෑ 𝑝𝑖

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

• All N components must function for the system to function:

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Estimate the overall system reliability.

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Assuming independent failures among the components. The overall system’s

𝑃 = 1 − (1 − 0.9)x(1 − 0.8)x(1 − 0.75) = 0.46

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

A system consists of 4 components connected in series. Two components have

What is the overall reliability of the system at time t=1 year?

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑅1 𝑡 x𝑅2 𝑡 x𝑅3 𝑡 x𝑅4 𝑡

𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 0.92 x 0.8 2

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

A simple computer consists of a processor, a bus and a memory. The computer

Calculate the probability that the computer will work?

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

Input Processor Bus Memory Output

The probability that the computer will work is:

A system consists of 5 components in series each having a reliability of 0.97. What

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑅5 = 0.975 = 0.86

Dr. Sameer Al-Dahidi

𝑅𝑠𝑦𝑠 = 𝑅6 = 0.976 = 0.832972