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ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the status of Turkish plans to export water to Is-
rael, Palestine, Cyprus, and other countries in the Middle East. The
most ambitious of these was President Turgut Özal's 1986 "Peace
Water Pipeline," a $21 billion project to bring water from the Seyhan
and Ceyhan rivers via pipelines to cities in Syria, Jordan, and Arab
Gulf States. We examine why this was not implemented. A shorter
pipeline from the Seyhan or Ceyhan rivers to Syria and Jordan, esti-
mated to cost $5 billion, may become feasible following the recent
rapprochement between Turkey and Syria, but extension of the pipe-
line to Israel and Palestinian territories requires a breakthrough in
Syrian-Israeli relations, including resolution of disputes over Jordan
River headwaters and Syrian access to the Sea of Galilee (Kinneret).
We will assess the progress of a Turkish export scheme that has been
approved in principle: Manavgat water to Israel: Israel has agreed
to purchase 50 MCM annually for 20 years from the Manavgat River
near Antalya, but -- as of mid-September 2004 -- the parties had nei-
ther finalized the price nor selected the company to implement the
water transfer. Israeli advocates of desalination object to the price of
Turkish water and question the wisdom of relying on Ankara, whose
government has lately been critical of Israeli policies. Palestinian wa-
ter officials express interest in Turkish water if the cost is subsidized
by international aid agencies. Ankara views the Manavgat “Peace
Water Project” as its contribution to the Arab-Israel peace process.
The Turkish counter argument is that since nearly 90 percent of the Eu-
phrates river’s flow originates in Turkey, Ankara has been generous to
agree to supply Syria with 500 m3/sec., which in a year totals some 15.7
billion m3 or roughly half the river’s flow. This figure was enshrined in
a protocol concluded between the Turkish and Syrian Prime ministers in
July 1987. However, this was to be only a temporary arrangement until
the reservoir created behind the giant Atatürk Dam was filled. At that
time a permanent arrangement would be negotiated. The Atatürk dam
began to generate electricity in July 1992 and the first of two large tun-
nels to divert water for irrigation was completed in November 1994.
However, Syria and Turkey have until now been unable to agree upon
the terms of a permanent apportionment of the Euphrates flows. Syria
and Iraq have enlisted the help of the Arab League to support their de-
mands that Turkey increase its allotment to them. (Gruen, 2002, pp.10-
24).
Özden Bilen, former head of the Turkish State Hydraulics Works (DSI),
reports that Turkey contributes 31.6 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) or 90
percent of the average 35BCM annual flow of the Euphrates, as well as
21.3BCM or 40 percent of the flow of the Tigris.(Bilen, 2000.) Profes-
sor Peter Beaumont, an international water authority, supports Ankara’s
position on the Euphrates, noting that since approximately 90 percent of
the river’s flow originates in Turkey, in terms of both “international
precedent” and “natural justice, it does not seem unfair that Turkey
should be able to utilize up to one-half of the water which is generated
within its borders.” (Beaumont, 1991,) For an analysis of Turkish pro-
jects utilizing Euphrates water, see Kolars and Mitchell, (1991.)
It should be noted that unlike the Tigris and Euphrates, the Ceyhan
and Seyhan rivers originate and flow entirely within the sovereign
territory of Turkey before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. The
pipeline idea was rejected by the oil-rich Gulf states, which Turkey
hoped would finance the giant project. The Saudis contended that de-
salination was a cheaper solution, since they could fuel flash distilla-
tion desalination plants with surplus gas produced as a byproduct of
their oil production. In a conversation I had with President Özal dur-
ing his visit to Columbia University shortly before his death in 1993,
the Turkish leader told me the Saudis failed to calculate the true cost
of desalination since they did not assign any value to the natural gas
being flared off rather than being liquified and sold. He was confident
that eventually Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States would realize the
value of the Turkish water for them. Alev Kılıç, Deputy Undersecre-
tary in the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently told me that
Ankara was still hopeful that the long pipeline extending to Saudi
Arabia would ultimately be built.(Kılıç, A.,2004.)
Beyond the relative costs of desalination versus the water imports from
Turkey, the Arab Gulf states were weighing the political risks. A major
reason for rejecting the Turkish proposal was political: the Saudis feared
disruption of the flow by one of the states through which the water pipe-
line passed before reaching them. Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait
in August 1990 reinforced this fear. However, the Kuwaiti experience
also pointed out the vulnerability of desalination plants. When the re-
treating Iraqi forces set many Kuwaiti oilfields on fire, large quantities
of oil spilled into the Persian/Arabian Gulf. The U.S.-led allied forces
managed to cap the oil wells just before the oil spill reached the intake
points of the desalination plants in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The recur-
ring acts of sabotage against oil pipelines by terrorists in Iraq following
the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in March 2003, have once again
highlighted the vulnerability of pipelines to disruption.
Professor Amnon Rubinstein notes that within the territory of the State
of Israel there has also been a dramatic decrease in infant mortality.
The infant mortality rate in Mandatory Palestine in 1943-44 was almost
10 percent for Muslims, 7 percent for Arab Christians, and 3.5 percent
for Jews. In 2001, the infant mortality rate among Jews was 0.41
percent, among Muslims, 0.82 percent, and among Christians, 0.2
percent. The overwhelming majority of Muslims were members of
Israel’s Palestinian Arab communities. According to recent figures of
the World Health Organization, the average life expectancy in Europe,
in 2000, was 69.6 years. “The Israeli Arab male, with a 74.4-year life
expectancy average, was very close to the figure for Germany, 74.9
years, and for the U.K., 75.6 years.” (Rubinstein, 2003, pp.5-6.)
Jordan also faces a worsening crisis. Its population growth rate was of-
ficially estimated at more than 3.6% per year. Natural increase in 1991
was swelled by more than 200,000 Jordanians, mainly of Palestinian
origin, who returned from the Gulf States, having been expelled from
Kuwait and Iraq as a result of the crisis following Saddam Hussein's
invasion of Kuwait. (Jordan, 1991.) According to the official Jordan
Diary 2000, "the gravest environmental challenge that faces [the
Hashemite Kingdom of] Jordan today is the scarcity of water." Current
use already exceeds renewable supply, with the deficit covered by "the
unsustainable practice of overdrawing highland aquifers, resulting in
lowered water tables and declining water quality."
If Israel does not need all the 50 MCM of water it plans to import annu-
ally from Turkey, some of this amount could be used to fulfill Israel’s
pledge under its Peace Treaty with Jordan to help find additional water
resources to ease Jordan’s perennial water shortage. (The additional wa-
ter provided by Israel to Jordan need not be the actual water from
Manavgat, but could be water drawn directly from the Jordan River or
from storage in the Sea of Galilee. The Turkish water could be used to
replace some of the Jordan River flow that is now pumped into the Na-
tional Water Carrier to meet Israel’s domestic needs.)
The 50 million cubic meters Israel will initially import from Turkey
represent only about 3 percent of Israel’s current annual consumption.
However, because of the unpredictability of rainfall each season and
Israel’s recent experience of periods of multi-year drought, Israel is in
dire need of additional dependable water sources, especially as it an-
ticipates further increases in the country's population through native
births and immigration. Even though Israel was blessed with above
normal rainfall during the past two years and the Sea of Galilee (Kin-
neret), Israel’s primary storage reservoir, was overflowing in the
Spring of 2004, this should not give Israelis a false sense of optimism.
Israelis consume some two billion cubic meters (2,000 MCM) of wa-
ter each year, while the country’s water supplies are replenished at an
average rate of only some 1.8 billion. This produces a yearly deficit
of 200 MCM or four times the anticipated imports from Turkey.
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