Solutions

Math 501 Assignment 3: due Monday 9/30 at 11:59 p.m. submitted

via Canvas in pdf format

Scoring: This assignment is worth 120 points (40 + 20 + 10 + 20 + 15 + 15

= 120)

Academic integrity and collaboration policy for this assignment: you

may work together on the reading assignment, which includes dozens of solved
problems, examples, proofs, detailed discussions, theorems, etc., and you are
encouraged to do so, but you must complete the written assignment entirely on
your own. Learn the material well with the reading assignment; prove you have
learned the material well with the written assignment.
You may consult our TAs or me regarding questions about written exercises
if you have worked hard on them and are very stuck, but you may not consult
anyone else until after all parties have submitted the assignment.
You are to …gure the exercises out entirely on your own.
If you …nd solutions to one or more of the written exercises in Weiss’s book,
in Hsu’s book, or in documents I myself have previously posted to Canvas for
our course this semester, you may make use of them, but the write-up should
be your own, and you must cite the source.
If you …nd solutions to one or more of the written exercises in any source
other than Weiss’s book, Hsu’s book, or documents I myself have previously
posted to Canvas for our course this semester, you may not make use of them
at all, and doing so would be an academic integrity violation.

Reading assignment:

Weiss: Sections 4.1, 4.2, and 4.4 (Chapters 1 through 3 were previously
assigned.)
Class notes: Part III of the class notes (Chapters 20 through 27, inclusive)
(Chapters 1 through 19 were previously assigned.)

Schaum’s book (Hwei Hsu): Read Sections 1.6 and 1.7 (Sections 1.1
through 1.5 were previously assigned.)
Schaum’s book (Hwei Hsu): Carefully work through exercises 1.44, 1.45,
1.48, 1.49, 1.50, 1.51, 1.52, 1.53, 1.55, 1.56, 1.57, 1.58, 1.59, 1.60, and
1.61. Do not turn these in, but make sure you understand the details of
the calculations and how to solve these exercises.
Read the probability measures handout.

Written assignment (to be turned in):

1
Exercise 1) (40 points – 5 points per part) (Probability spaces, in-
cluding discrete and geometric)
a. Suppose ( ; F; P ) is a probability space and that E is an event. Which of
the following statements in the bullet points can we conclude? List all the bullet
point statements which apply (there may be more than one). Write “NONE”
if you cannot conclude any of the bullet point statements. No work is needed.
Just give an answer.

E :
E F:
P (E c ) is de…ned.
E has one or more elements.
E 2 F:

b. Suppose ( ; F; P ) is a probability space and that E : Which of the

following statements in the bullet points can we conclude? List all the bullet
point statements which apply (there may be more than one). Write “NONE”
if you cannot conclude any of the bullet point statements. No work is needed.
Just give an answer.

E is an event.
E F:
P (E c ) is de…ned.
E has one or more elements.
E 2 F:

c. Suppose ( ; F; P ) is a probability space and that = [0; 2] [0; 2] : Is the

following calculation completely correct? Explain.
!
[ X
1=P( )=P f!g = P (f!g) :
!2 !2

d. Suppose = fag : I.e., consists of a single element. Let

F = 2 = f;; fagg :

Find, with proof, all probability measures P on ( ; F) :

Hint: what are the possibilities for P (fag)?

2
e. Suppose is countable, and suppose that contains at least two elements.
Let F = 2 : Prove that there exist in…nitely many di¤erent probability measures
P on ( ; F) :
Hint: Let ! 1 and ! 2 be elements of : Let p be any real number in (0; 1) :
Consider probability measures P for which P (f! 1 g) = p and P (f! 2 g) = 1 p:

f. Step 2 of Exercise 3 below is correct. The reason it follows from Step 1 is

that (…ll in the blanks) “P is _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _.”I.e., you are looking
for a term which is four letters, a hyphen, and then seven letters. We used the
term in class several times.

g. Suppose that = N N; where N (as always) is the set of all positive

integers, and let F be the power set of : Is it possible to …nd a probability
measure P on ( ; F) such that P (f!g) is the same for each ! 2 ? Why or
why not?

h. Let = fa; b; cg and F = 2 : Find (by listing them all in some way) all
probability measures P on ( ; F) for which P (fag) = 2P (fbg) : If there are no
such probability measures, write “NONE,” and explain why there are no such
probability measures.
Hint: Let x = P (fcg) : Then …nd P (fag) in terms of x; and …nd P (fbg)
in terms of x: What are the possible values of x (keeping in mind that all
probabilities must be between 0 and 1; inclusive)? List all events in this space,
and for each one give its probability (in terms of x).

Solution to a.: The statements in the …rst, third, and …fth bullet points can
be concluded.
Explanation (not needed for this exercise): Events are, by de…nition, ele-
ments of F; all of which are (also by de…nition) subsets of : Since E 2 F; we
also have E c 2 F (since F is closed under complements), and thus P (E c ) is
de…ned.

Solution to b.: We cannot conclude any of the statements in the bullet points.

Solution to c.: No. The last step,

!
[ X
P f!g = P (f!g) ;
!2 !2

is incorrect. It inappropriately makes use of Kolmogorov’s 3rd axiom, which

does not apply to this situation since is an uncountable set, and so the union
involved is an uncountable union.

Solution to d.: Since = fag ; by Kolmogorov’s 2nd axiom we must have

P (fag) = 1: Since F = 2 = f;; fagg ; there are only two events, ; and fag :

3
We have

P (;) = 0;
P (fag) = 1:

There are no other probability measures on ( ; F) ; since the probabilities of

the two events must be as speci…ed here.

Solution to e.: Let = f! g 2I : We are given that is countable, so I is

countable. We are given that contains at least two elements, so, without loss
of generality, suppose ! 1 ; ! 2 2 :
Let p be any real number in (0; 1) ; and de…ne a sequence (p ) 2I according
to
p1 = p; p2 = 1 p; p = 0 provided 2 I but 2 = f1; 2g :
Since for each p 2 (0; 1) these p s are non-negative and add up to 0; for each
p 2 (0; 1) there exists a unique probability measure P on ( ; F) for which
P (f! g) = p for each 2 I: Since there are in…nitely many such p s (indeed,
uncountably many), there exist in…nitely many probability measures on ( ; F) :

Solution to f.: well-de…ned

Solution to g.: No. is countably in…nite. We have previously proven

that when is countably in…nite and F = 2 there must exist at least two
elements of which have di¤erent probabilities, so an equal-likelihood model is
not possible.

Solution to h.: Let x = P (fcg) : Let y = P (fbg) : Then P (fag) = 2y: We

have

1 = P ( ) = P (fag) + P (fbg) + P (fcg) = 2y + y + x = 3y + x;

and so y = (1 x) =3:
For each x 2 [0; 1] ; the three numbers

2 (1 x) =3; (1 x) =3; and x

are non-negative and add up to 1; and so for each x 2 [0; 1] there exists a unique
probability measure Px for which

Px (fag) = 2 (1 x) =3;
Px (fbg) = (1 x) =3;
Px (fcg) = x:

There is one probability measure on ( ; F) for each x 2 [0; 1] ; as shown above.

Exercise 2) (20 points – 5 points per part) (Geometric probability

spaces)

4
 This exercise concerns probability spaces ( ; F; P ) : An experiment will be
given, and I will indicate what ; F; and P are below.
An experiment consists of selecting a point at random from the 2 2 square
(including its boundary) whose sides are parallel to the axes and with (0; 0) and
(2; 2) as the lower left and upper right corners.
The set of all possible outcomes (i.e., the sample space) for this experiment
is
= [0; 2] [0; 2] = f(x; y) : 0 x 2; 0 y 2g ;
since the outcome of this experiment is a single point ! = (x; y) 2 ; with x
and y each between 0 and 2 inclusive.
In elementary measure theory, we measure “area”with 2-dimensional Lebesgue
measure, L2 : For a reasonably uncomplicated subset E of R2 ; L2 (E) is precisely
the area of E in the sense of geometry, or of calculus (using integration).
It can be shown (this is beyond the scope of our course) that there exists a
-…eld F of subsets of such that the “area” function de…ned by
Area (E) = L2 (E) whenever E 2 F
satis…es the 1st and 3rd Kolmogorov axioms. I.e., the area of an event E 2 F is
always non-negative, and if we have a countable collection of mutually exclusive
events A 2 F; then
!
[ X
Area A = Area (A ) :

Finally, Area (;) = 0:

Assume all of this as given (it follows from general measure theory); you will
need to use it below.
For us, Area (E) is de…ned only when E 2 F: We can thus describe F as the
domain of the area measure, the set of all subsets E of for which Area (E) is
de…ned.
When we write Area (E) ; we really mean L2 (E) : However, to keep things
simpler and somewhat more intuitive we will write Area (E) :
We now have the …rst two ingredients of our probability space. We must
now de…ne a probability measure P:
It turns out that F contains all the singleton sets in (a singleton set is a
set consisting of a single element; in this case, the singleton sets in are points
in the plane which happen to be in the set ). In other words, each point
(x ; y ) in the square is an element of F: By our de…nition of F; this means
that Area (f(x ; y )g) is de…ned for each (x ; y ) in : In fact, the area of each
individual point in is equal to 0: This, of course, makes good intuitive sense
since a point has no length or width.
Let P be the real-valued function de…ned for each event E (i.e., for each
E 2 F) by the formula
Area (E) Area (E)
P (E) = = :
Area ( ) 4

5
a. Prove that P satis…es the …rst Kolmogorov axiom. I.e., suppose E 2 F; and
show that P (E) 0:

b. Prove that P satis…es the second Kolmogorov axiom. I.e., show that P ( ) =
1:

c. Prove that P satis…es the third Kolmogorov axiom. I.e., suppose fA g is a

countable collection of mutually exclusive events A ; and show that
!
[ X
P A = P (A ) :

d. Suppose E is a countable subset of : What, if anything, can be said about

P (E)? Be as speci…c as possible, citing your reasons.
NOTE: It follows from the work in parts a., b., and c. that ( ; F; P ) is a
probability space. It is the 2-dimensional geometric probability space on :

Solution to a.: Suppose E 2 F: By the de…nition of P; we have

1
P (E) = Area (E) 0:
4

Solution to b.: Suppose E = : By the de…nition of P; we have

1 1
P (E) = Area (E) = (4) = 1:
4 4

Solution to c.: Suppose fA g is a countable collection of mutually exclusive

events A : By the de…nition of P; we have
! !
[ 1 [
P A = Area A
4
1X
= Area (A ) (this identity was given)
4
X1
= Area (A )
4
X
= P (A ) :

6
Solution to d.: Since E is countable, and since the discussion above indicates
that all singleton subsets of are events, it follows that E (being a countable
union of events –namely, of its own singleton subsets) is an event. We calculate
!
[
P (E) = P f!g (E is the union of its elements, P is well-de…ned)
!2E
X
= P (f!g) (Kolmogorov’s 3rd axiom)
!2E
X 1
= Area (f!g) (de…nition of P )
4
!2E
X
= 0 (the area of a point is 0)
!2E
= 0:

Thus, any countable subset of must be an event having probability zero.

Exercise 3) (10 points) (Probability spaces)

Let ( ; F; P ) be the probability space from Exercise 2.

Convention (summing over an uncountable set) Whenever I is an un-

countable set and f (x) = 0 for all x in I; we de…ne
X
f (x) = 0:
x2I

Thus, while in general we de…ne in…nite sums only over countable sets,
when adding nothing but zeroes we set the sum equal to 0 by convention.
Moreover, for any uncountable set I; and any function f for which the set

I1 = fx 2 I : f (x) 6= 0g

is countable, we de…ne

I2 = fx 2 I : f (x) = 0g ;

and we have
X X X X X
f (x) = f (x) + f (x) = f (x) + 0 = f (x) :
x2I x2I1 x2I2 x2I1 x2I1

Thus, in general, we can de…ne a sum of a function over an uncountable set

precisely when the function is zero except on a countable set of elements
of the set.

We will now go on to show that 0 must equal 1; which invalidates every

theorem of mathematics ever proved (thus breaking mathematics entirely and

7
irreparably). I will number the steps to make it easier for you to reference them.
Proceed carefully, as there is a lot at stake with this problem.
Claim: “0 = 1:”
“Proof:”
Step 1: Since any set is the union of its elements, we have
[
= f(x ; y )g :
(x ;y )2

Step 2: It follows that

0 1
[
P( )=P@ f(x ; y )gA :
(x ;y )2

Step 3: Using our de…nition of P above, we get

1 1
P( )= Area ( ) = (4) = 1:
4 4
Step 4: It follows that
0 1
[
P@ f(x ; y )gA = 1:
(x ;y )2

Step 5: We have
0 1
[ X
P@ f(x ; y )gA = P (f(x ; y )g) :
(x ;y )2 (x ;y )2

Step 6: We have
X X
P (f(x ; y )g) = 0 = 0:
(x ;y )2 (x ;y )2

Step 7: If the steps above are all correct, then

0 1
[ X
1=P( )=P@ f(x ; y )gA = P (f(x ; y )g) = 0:
(x ;y )2 (x ;y )2

q.e.d.
List each step (by number) whose statement is false as written, and for each
step you list explain clearly the nature of the mathematical error. If you feel
each of the steps is correct as written, say so. Calling something incorrect that is
really correct is just as bad as calling something correct that is really incorrect.

8
Solution: There is precisely one step where a claim is made that is not true:
Step 5. The claims in each of the other steps are entirely correct.
Kolmogorov’s 3rd axiom tells us that the probability of a COUNTABLE
mutually exclusive union of events is the sum of the probabilities. However, the
union in Step 5, [
f(x ; y )g ;
(x ;y )2

has as the index set, and itself is uncountable since it has positive area.
Thus, we may not apply Kolmogorov’s 3rd axiom to this particular union. As
this “proof” shows, doing so ultimately results in the incorrect conclusion that
1 = 0:
Remark 1 Hopefully, this example shows how important it is to be able to tell
whether an index set is countable or not and how important it is to check the
hypotheses of results before making use of formulas given in the results.
Remark 2 If you said that the claim in Step 7 is not correct, then you likely
ignored the beginning of the claim, where the key hypothesis is given: “If the
steps above are all correct, then...” It is critically important to pay attention to
hypotheses in mathematics, not just to formulas in the “then”part of a statement
or theorem. Each equality in Step 7 correctly makes use of results which are true
or results from previous steps, which are assumed to be true in the hypothesis
stated in Step 7. In any …eld of mathematics, any claim of the form
“If P; then Q” is true if P is false (regardless of whether Q is true
or not), true if P is true and Q is true, and false if P is true and Q
is false.

Exercise 4. (20 points – 5 points per part) (random sampling and

geometric probability models)
For this exercise, let = [0; 2] [0; 2] ; and let ( ; F; P ) be the corresponding
2-dimensional geometric probability model. Our experiment consists of selecting
a point from at random. Let us denote the point by (x; y) (x and y being the
coordinates of the selected point). Thus, if ! is the outcome of the experiment,
we have
! = (x; y) :
Let E be the event that x is in the interval [3=2; 2] :
Let F be the event that y is in the interval [1=4; 2] :
Let G = E \ F:
a. Draw a picture of ; and shade (each in a di¤erent way – using di¤erent
colors or line segments drawn at obviously di¤erent angles) the subsets of
corresponding to the events E; F; and G: Include a “key” to explain which
shaded region corresponds to which event.

b. Let H be the event that the selected point (x; y) satis…es

jy xj 1:

9
Find P (H) :
Hint. Recall that for any non-negative real number a the inequality jzj a is
algebraically equivalent to a z a: I strongly recommend drawing a picture
of the subset of corresponding to the event H:

c. Let I be the event that the selected point (x; y) is on the boundary of (i.e.,
that x = 0 and 0 y 2; or that x = 2 and 0 y 2; or that y = 0 and
0 x 2; or that y = 2 and 0 x 2). Find P (I) :

d. Let J be the event that the selected point (x; y) is at the center of (i.e.,
that (x; y) = (1; 1)). Find P (J c ) ; the probability of the complement of J:

Solution to a.: You should provide a diagram. Your diagrams will not all look
alike. I will describe what the diagram should look like in any case.
E is the rectangle whose vertices are at (3=2; 0) ; (2; 0) ; (3=2; 2) ; and (2; 2) :
It is the part of the square that is to the right of the vertical line segment
where x = 3=2: It should be shaded in some manner.
F is the rectangle whose vertices are at (0; 1=4) ; (2; 1=4) ; (0; 2) ; and (2; 2) :
It is the part of the square that is above the horizontal line segment where
y = 1=4: It should be shaded in some manner, but not in the same manner as
E:
G is the rectangle whose vertices are at (3=2; 1=4) ; (2; 1=4) ; (3=2; 2) ; and
(2; 2) : It is the part of the square that is to the right of the vertical line
segment where x = 3=2 and simultaneously above the horizontal line segment
where y = 1=4: There was no need to do any extra shading for G since it is the
unique region which is shaded twice (by being in both E and F ).

Solution to b.: jy xj 1 if and only if

1 y x 1;
which is true if and only if
x 1 y x + 1:
To draw H; simply draw ; draw the parallel lines y = x 1 and y = x + 1;
and shade the part of that is between the parallel lines. \ H c consists of
two right triangles, each having leg lengths of 1 (hence each having area 1=2),
and so Area ( \ H c ) = 1=2 + 1=2 = 1; which gives Area (H) = 3: Then
Area (H) 3
P (H) = = :
Area ( ) 4

Solution to c.: The boundary of consists of four line segments, each having
area 0: Thus,
Area (I) 0
P (I) = = = 0:
Area ( ) 4

10
Solution to d.: The event J consists of a single point, which has area 0; and
so
Area (J) 0
P (J) = = = 0:
Area ( ) 4
It follows that P (J c ) = 1:
Remark 3 J c is an example of an event which has probability 1 but which could
potentially fail to happen (if the center is selected).

Exercise 5. (15 points – 5 points per part) (geometric probability

spaces)
a. Use an appropriate geometric probability model to solve Exercise 2.90a from
the Weiss book. Be sure to indicate what ; F; and P you are using explicitly,
and explain why it is appropriate to use the probability space ( ; F; P ) that
you are using to solve Exercise 2.90a.

b. Use an appropriate geometric probability model to solve Exercise 2.90b from

the Weiss book. Be sure to indicate what ; F; and P you are using explicitly,
and explain why it is appropriate to use the probability space ( ; F; P ) that
you are using to solve Exercise 2.90b.
Hint: Recall that we graph inequalities by graphing the equality case, in this
case jxj + jyj = 1=2; and then testing a point not on the set – such as (0; 0)
– to determine whether the inequality holds or not, which a¤ects which side
of the graph we shade. In this case, since j0j + j0j 6> 1=2; we will shade the
part of the set which does not contain (0; 0) : To deal with absolute values, it
su¢ ces to consider 4 cases separately. If x 0 and y 0; then jxj = x and
jyj = y; so the equation becomes x + y = 1=2; which is easy to graph; then
shade the appropriate side of that line. Do the same for the other 3 cases. For
instance, if x < 0 and y 0; then jxj = x and jyj = y; so the equation becomes
x + y = 1=2; which is again easy to graph.

c. A point is selected at random from inside a ball in R3 having radius 10

and center (2; 3; 9) : Find the probability that the selected point is a distance
of at least 7 from the center of the ball, given that it is a distance of at most
9 from the center of the ball. Be sure to indicate what ; F; and P you are
using explicitly, and explain why it is appropriate to use the probability space
( ; F; P ) that you are using to solve this problem.

Solution to a.: Since the point is selected at random from a disk having
positive, …nite area, we apply a 2-dimensional geometric probability model with
being the disk. F is the set of subsets of the disk having a de…ned area, and
P is de…ned by
Area (E)
P (E) =
Area ( )

11
for each E 2 F:
Let E be the event that the selected point is a distance at least 1=2 from
the center of the disk. Then E is the region inside the disk but outside the
disk having the same center and radius 1=2; so
2 2
Area (E) = (1) (1=2) = (3=4) ;

and so
(3=4) 3
P (E) = 2 = :
(1) 4

Solution to b.: Since the point is selected at random from a disk having
positive, …nite area, we apply a 2-dimensional geometric probability model with
being the disk. F is the set of subsets of the disk having a de…ned area, and
P is de…ned by
Area (E)
P (E) =
Area ( )
for each E 2 F:
We are given that

E = f(x; y) 2 : jxj + jyj > 1=2g

= (x; y) : x2 + y 2 < 1; jxj + jyj > 1=2 :

The set
S = (x; y) 2 R2 : jxj + jyj = 1=2
is a square, whose edges are line segments making 45 degree angles relative to
each of the axes, with vertices

1 1
;0 ; 0; :
2 2
p
This square has side length 2=2; so it encloses a solid region having area 1=2:
Since each of the vertices of this square is inside the unit disk ; the entire
square S is inside the disk as well.
E consists of all points outside the square S (since (0; 0) does not satisfy the
inequality jxj + jyj > 1=2) but inside the unit disk : By the last sentence of
the preceding paragraph, we have

Area (E) = Area ( ) Area (region inside S)

= 1=2:

Therefore,
Area (E) 1=2 1
P (E) = = =1 ;
Area ( ) 2
which is approximately 0:840845:

12
Solution to c.: Since the point is selected at random from a ball having
positive, …nite volume, we apply a 3-dimensional geometric probability model
with being the ball. F is the set of subsets of the ball having a de…ned volume,
and P is de…ned by
Volume (E)
P (E) =
Volume ( )
for each E 2 F:
Let E be the event that the selected point is a distance of at least 7 from
the center of the ball.
Let F be the event that the selected point is a distance of at most 9 from
the center of the ball.
Then
P (E \ F )
P (E j F ) = :
P (F )
Here, E \ F is the region inside the ball having center (2; 3; 9) and radius 9
and outside the ball having center (2; 3; 9) and radius 7; so
4 3 4 3 1544
Volume (E \ F ) = (9) (7) = :
3 3 3
Therefore,
Volume (E \ F ) (1544=3) 193
P (E \ F ) = = 3 = :
Volume ( ) (4=3) (10) 500
Also,
4 3
Volume (F ) = (9) = 972 ;
3
so
Volume (F ) 972 729
P (F ) = = 3 = 1000 :
Volume ( ) (4=3) (10)
Finally, we calculate
P (E \ F ) 193=500 386
P (E j F ) = = = ;
P (F ) 729=1000 729
which is approximately 0:529492:

Exercise 6. (15 points – 5 points per part) (cards and random sam-
pling without replacement)
In the card game poker, players eventually end up with 5 card “hands,”and
then which player wins a given round depends on which “hand”is ranked more
highly.
See this website to see a list of some hands and their frequencies (how many
ways they can occur) and associated probabilities. Note that the probabilities
correspond to the probability of picking cards having that hand at random
(which is not how poker actually works).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability#Frequency_of_5-card_poker_hands
I will give a couple of those calculations in detail.

13
Example 4 A player with 5 cards has “two pairs” when the player has 2 cards
of one denomination, 2 cards of a di¤ erent denomination, and 1 other card of
a di¤ erent denomination from the …rst 2. A player picks 5 cards from a deck at
random. What is the probability that the player has two pairs?

Solution: Since we are choosing 5 cards from a shu- ed deck, each set of 5 cards
is equally likely to be selected. We may therefore use a classical probability
model with representing the collection of all sets of 5 cards. We have

52
j j= :
5

Let E be the event that the cards form two pairs, as described above. Then

jEj
P (E) = ;
j j

so it remains to …nd jEj :

To count jEj ; we will break the process of selecting two pairs into several
steps. We will count how many ways each step can be performed, and we will
use the Fundamental Counting Principle to complete the calculation. We will
do the calculation in two di¤erent ways for practice:

First calculation of jEj :

Step 1: select the three di¤erent denominations. There are 13
3 ways to do this.
Step 2: select which of those three denominations is the one we’ll pick just one
card for. There are 3 ways to do this.
Step 3: select 2 cards from the …rst denomination for which we’re selecting 2.
There are 42 ways to do this.
Step 4: select 2 cards from the second denomination for which we’re selecting
2. There are 42 ways to do this.
Step 5: select 1 card from the denomination for which we’re selecting 1. There
are 41 ways to do this.
By the Fundamental Counting Principle, we have

13 4 4 4
jEj = 3 = 123 552:
3 2 2 1

Second calculation of jEj :

Step 1: select two di¤erent denominations (the ones from which we will pick
two cards later). There are 13
2 ways to do this.
Step 2: select 2 cards from the …rst denomination for which we’re selecting 2.
There are 42 ways to do this.
Step 3: select 2 cards from the second denomination for which we’re selecting
2. There are 42 ways to do this.
Step 4: select 1 card from the remaining 44 cards (so that it is of a di¤erent
denomination). There are 44 1 ways to do this.

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 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, we have

13 4 4 44
jEj = = 123 552:
2 2 2 1

Finally, we have

jEj 123 552

P (E) = = 52 0:047539:
j j 5

More practice Other probability calculations for other hands are carried out
in the same manner. Try a few others for practice, using the answers on
the wikipedia page above to check your work.

a. A person playing poker picks 5 cards from a deck at random. What is the
probability that the person has one pair and nothing better (i.e., 2 cards of one
denomination, 1 card of a second denomination, 1 card of a third denomination,
and 1 card of a 4th denomination)?

b. A person playing poker picks 5 cards from a deck at random. What is the
probability that the person has (among the 5 cards) the ace of spades?

c. A person playing poker picks 5 cards from a deck at random. What is the
probability that the person has a ‡ush (i.e., all 5 cards have the same suit; they
may or may not also form a straight)?

Solution to a.: Since the cards were picked at random, a classical probability
model applies with equal to the set of all possible sets of 5 cards. We have
j j = 525 = 2598 960:
Let E be the event that the hand is one pair and nothing better. E occurs
precisely when there are two cards of one denomination, one card of a di¤erent
denomination, one card of a third denomination, and one card of a fourth de-
nomination. There are 13 4 ways to choose the 4 di¤erent denominations. For
each of those, there are 4 choices for which of those will be the denomination
with the pair, and there are 42 ways to pick the two cards of that denomination.
For each of the other denominations, there are 4 choices (one for each suit). By
the Fundamental Counting Principle, we have

13 4
jEj = 4 4 4 4 = 1098 240:
4 2

Finally,
jEj 1098 240
P (E) = = 0:422569028:
j j 2598 960

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Solution #1 to b.: Recall the following theorem: “If we use random sampling
to select a sample of size n from a population of size N; then each element of
the population has a probability of n=N of appearing in the sample.”We simply
apply this theorem with N = 52 and n = 5 to deduce that the answer is 5=52:

Solution #2 to b.: Since the cards were picked at random, a classical proba-
bility model applies with equal to the set of all possible sets of 5 cards. We
have j j = 52 5 = 2598 960:
Let E be the event that the hand includes the ace of spades. Then E c is the
event that the hand does not include the ace of spades. E c occurs provided the
5 cards are chosen from among the 51 other cards, which can happen in 51 5
ways, so jE c j = 51
5 : Then

51
jE c j 47
P (E c ) = = 5
52 = ;
j j 5
52

and …nally
5
P (E) = 1 P (E c ) = :
52

Solution to c.: Since the cards were picked at random, a classical probability
model applies with equal to the set of all possible sets of 5 cards. We have
j j = 525 = 2598 960:
Let E be the event that the hand is a ‡ush. E occurs precisely when all 5
cards have the same suit. There are 4 possible suits, and for each one there are
13
5 ways to choose 5 cards from the 13 cards of that suit. By the Fundamental
Counting Principle, we have

13
jEj = 4 = 5148;
5

and so
jEj 5148
P (E) = = 0:001980792:
j j 2598 960

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