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Культура Документы
Date:
June 10, 2006
Submitted by
Nitin N. Kavadia
PGDBM (2005-07)
Nitin N. Kavadia
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This project aims to develop a credit rating model for the Real Estate sector. The
scope of the project is to develop a framework, which provides internal credit rating to
the 'Project Loan Proposals' from the Real Estate industry. The model is developed using
the GMGS-Project model as the base. Thus the major categories of the risks remain the
same. The model is designed on a modular structure, which helps in categorizing similar
nature of risk in a single module
The risks inherent to a Real Estate Project are identified by studying the characteristics of
the Real Estate Industry through the following sources:
1. Cris-Infac Reports on Construction Industry
2. 5- Memorandums of the projects rated by the division
3. Interview of Real Estate industry professionals
4. Interview of employees at IDBI who have worked on the Real Estate projects
5. Draft Report of DSK builder submitted to SEBI for IPO listing.
The study reveals two major risks in any Real Estate project: Land title risk and
Execution risk. Both the risks are further sub-divided and included under the major risk
heads of the model. The risk exposures are accounted through qualitative and quantitative
parameters. Both the type of parameters are used for comprehensive evaluation of the
project.
The scales for the parameters are identified on the basis of their relative importance to
the Real Estate project. Scoring for the quantitative parameters is absolute whereas
scoring for qualitative parameters is judgmental and is the sole prerogative of the Credit
Officer evaluating the specific project. The scores for the individual modules are
calculated by summing up the scores of the individual parameters. The final score is the
calculated by the sum of the weighted score of each module. The weights to the modules
are assigned on the basis of the GMGS model, with slight modification to account for the
unique nature of the Real Estate Industry.
Finally a thirteen-grade system is followed and the grading pattern for the overall
score is determined.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE REAL ESTATE PROJECT CREDIT
RATING MODEL......................................................................................5
1.1 About the rating model .................................................................................... 5
1.2 Applicability of the rating model ..................................................................... 5
6. ANNEXURES ....................................................................................87
4
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE REAL ESTATE PROJECT CREDIT
RATING MODEL
5
2. BROAD FRAMEWORK OF THE RATING MODEL
The risks perceived in financing Real Estate projects have been categorised into various
modules and sub-modules. The credit rating for a borrower will be done by scoring each
parameter in these modules / sub-modules, based on the scales mentioned.
A diagrammatic representation of the credit rating model is given below.
Architect/
Structural
consultan
Comple
t Actuals
xity –
4b versus
5b projecti
ons – 6b
Principal
Anchor –
5c
Past
financial
– 6c
Constru
ction –
5d
Operati
on –5e
A brief description of the modules / sub-modules in the rating model is mentioned below:
Industry: Captures the risks arising from the industry to which the borrower belongs;
Developer/Promoter: Captures the risks arising from the promoters of the project;
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Management Quality: Captures the risks arising due to the management quality of the
project company responsible for executing the project;
Significant Project Party: Captures the risks arising out of the significant party, which
provides financial or technical support to the project. The significant party and the risks
arising from it are as follows:
Contractor: Captures the risks arising from the choice of the EPC contractor(s),
the strengths of the EPC contractor(s) and the quality of the EPC contract; and
Architect/Structural engineer/Consultant: Captures the risks arising from the
strengths of the party.
Project Risks: Captures the risks which are specific to the project being undertaken:
General: Captures the risks which are present in a project right from the
developmental phase (conception of the idea), till the construction and the
operation and maintenance phase;
Complexities: Captures the risks arising due to the complexities in-built in the
construction of the project;
Principal Anchor: Captures the risks arising due to the past performance of the
lessee.
Construction: Captures the construction / completion risks involved in project;
and
Operations & Maintenance: Captures the risks faced by the project once it
commences commercial operations.
Financial Analysis: Assesses the profitability, capitalisation / solvency, liquidity and
cash flow adequacy that affect the financial health of the borrower. This module has
been further divided into 3 sub-modules:
Future projections: Involves estimation of the level of future cash flows of the
borrower, and capturing the risks arising from the level of future cash flows;
Actuals versus projections: Involves the comparison of the financial
performance of the borrower for the latest financial year as compared to the
projections prepared for that year; and
Past financial performance: Involves an in-depth analysis of the past financial
performance of the borrower.
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3. OPERATING METHOD FOR THE RATING MODEL
3.1 Introduction
The credit rating model operates in a logical sequence of events. This sequence has to be
followed each time the rating model is used for appraising a loan facility. The sequence,
which is followed, is broadly outlined below:
• Clearing filters in the credit rating model;
• Undertaking the appraisal by completing all the modules in the credit rating
model. Modules, sub-modules and parameters in the model will be activated / de-
activated as per the relevant phase of the appraisal.
Though the broad sequence of operation remains the same, some elements would change
depending upon the relevant appraisal phase.
Phase
Initial Construction Operation
Module/sub module
Industry √ √ x
Developer/Promoter √ √ X
Management
√ √ X
Quality
Significant Project
√ √ X
Party
Civil Contractor √ √ X
Architect/consultant √ √ X
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Project √ √ x
General √ √ X
Complexities √ √ X
Construction X √ X
Principal Anchor X X X
Operation X X X
Financial Analysis √ √ X
Past Performance X X X
Actual vs Projected X X X
Future projection √ √ X
Phase
Initial Construction Operation
Module/sub module
Industry √ √ √
Developer/Promoter √ √ X
Management
√ √ X
Quality
Significant Project
√ √ X
Party
Civil Contractor √ √ X
Architect/consultant √ √ X
Project √ √ √
General √ √ √
Complexities √ √ X
Construction X √ X
Principal Anchor X √ √
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Operation X X √
Financial Analysis √ √ √
Past Performance X X √
Actual vs Projected X X √
Future projection √ √ √
• Corporate governance;
• Diversion of funds;
• Honouring of commitments;
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Management
22 5 64 5 22 x
Quality
Significant Project
Party
Civil Contractor 64 15 64 12.5 64 X
Architect/consultant 20 5 20 2.5 20 X
Project
General 58 20 58 18 58 X
Complexities 34 10 34 9 34 X
Construction 52 x 52 10.5 52 X
Principal Anchor 20 x 20 x 20 X
Operation 22 x 22 x 22 X
Financial Analysis
Past Performance 92 x 92 x 92 X
Actual vs Projected 60 x 60 x 60 X
Future projection 40 15 40 15 40 X
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General 58 20 58 20 58 20
Complexities 34 10 34 10 34 X
Construction 52 x 52 10 52 X
Principal Anchor 22 x 22 2.5 22 15
Operation 22 x 22 x 22 30
Financial Analysis
Past Performance 10
Actual vs Projected 5
Future projection 40 15 40 15 40 5
There may be cases when the developer himself is contractor then the weightage of the
developer/promoter module should be the addition of the wiehtages assigned to promoter
and contractor modules.
3.4 Filters
Purpose of filters
Filters are used as a means to check if the borrower has satisfied certain minimum
requirements to avail of a loan. If the borrower has satisfied all the filters, then the credit
officer can proceed with the proposal.
Description of filters
The section below describes the filters, which are used in the credit rating model during
various phases of appraisal.
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1. Is the level of promoters' equity contribution above IDBI’s benchmark (25 per
cent)?
The promoters' contribution reflects the commitment of the promoters to the project.
During the initial appraisal, if the total equity contribution of the promoters is less than 25
per cent of the total project cost, then the proposal will be rejected.
2. Has the promoter / EPC contractor defaulted to any bank / IDBI / financial
institution?
The promoter and the civil contractor are entities, who have significant influence over the
project, during the construction phase. It is necessary to ensure that each of the above
entities has not defaulted on its obligations to any bank / financial institution / IDBI.
4. Is the promoter / EPC contractor on the RBI defaulters list / IDBI caution list?
The RBI circulates a list of willful defaulters’ once every six months to all banks and
financial institutions. Similarly, the Corporate Support Department of IDBI periodically
generates an internal caution list, which consists of borrowers who might be close to
default. The presence of any of the above-mentioned entities in either of these lists could
be detrimental to the project.
5. Is the net worth of the promoter or promoter group (where the promoters are
not companies) adequate?
It is essential to assess the total tangible net worth of each individual promoter or a group
of promoters, as they provide financial support to the project in the form of equity
contribution and funding for cost overruns. For this filter, the net worth of the promoter
group should be considered only if the promoters are a collection of individuals / Hindu
Undivided Families (‘HUF’) / partnerships. If the promoter is a company, then only the
net worth of the promoter should be considered and not that of the group to which the
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company belongs. The total tangible net worth of each individual promoter or the group
of promoters should be at least thrice the equity contribution required.
6. Is there any litigation / stay order against the construction or operation of the
project?
The presence of any existing litigations / stay orders against the construction or the
operation of the project could hamper the timely completion / smooth operation of the
project. Therefore any project, which is under litigation, should be rejected during the
initial appraisal.
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10. Have any of the promoters approached IDBI / other institutions for a one-time
settlement (‘OTS’) in the past?
If a promoter has approached any lender for an OTS in the past, it is an outcome of
default on a loan facility to a lender. If any of the promoters of the project have a history
of OTS in the past, then the loan proposal should be rejected during the appraisal in the
initial appraisal.
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4. PARAMETER DESCRIPTION AND SCORING
4.1 Industry
Industry analysis forms the core of macro economic analysis in a rating system. It is one
of the key determinants of the level and the volatility of the present and the future
earnings for any business, and consequently the level of cash generated to service debt
obligations. This will also help to assess the management quality of borrowers in terms of
their strategies, plans and proposed actions for the future in light of future economic and
industry trends, which ultimately determine the borrower’s earnings potential.
The Indian real estate market had been growing at an annual rate of 30% with steady
growth in Commercial, residential properties, hospitals, hotels, industrial buildings etc. In
the commercial space, the business opportunity is led by the unprecedented outsourcing
activity happening from India. The who's who of the IT world - Microsoft, Oracle, Dell,
Intel, GE,
Cognizant, etc. have set-up their offshore centres in India. Studies reveal that the
residential industry will also get a major boost as it gears up to house the new prosperous
workforce of the IT and BPO industries. The retail industry is also expected to get
increasingly organized, which would further increase the demand for real estate.
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Opportunities in the BPO industry are expected to open up in several industry verticals
such as financial services, healthcare, utilities, airlines, retailing, pharmaceuticals,
automotive and telecom industries. The expected growth of about 40% in the IT and BPO
industry will create a substantial demand for world-class infrastructure. An independent
study by Cushman and Wakefield in 2002, estimated that approximately 40 mn sq. ft. of
space would be required across the six key cities of Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore,
Hyderabad, Chennai and Gurgaon until 2007. In 2003, the IT industry accounted for 8.5
mn sq. ft., or more than 80% of office space absorption in 2003 as against 43% in 2000.
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51% in USA), which is an indicator of huge potential for growth. There is also shortage
for housing in India, which will lead to tremendous potential in that segment too.
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operate in local/regional markets. While these players are now initiating efforts to
develop a broader presence, their 'home' markets continue to support the majority of their
profitability.
2. Local know-how critical success factor in the development phase
One of the key reasons for emergence of local leaders is the criticality of local know how
and relationships in ensuring successful and timely development. Each development is
dependent on a number of local clearances (e.g. municipal corporation, water, electricity)
that requires strong experience and relationships.
3. High transaction costs and significant cash transactions
The industry has been burdened with high transaction cost in the form of stamp duty that
varies across the country (state wise).
These transaction costs have resulted in poor liquidity in this market. These transaction
costs have led to significant cash transactions to reduce the stamp duty burden.
4. Residential development largely financed through mortgage loans
Most developers use mortgage for their residential projects. Apart for mortgages, the
other key sources of funding are through high net worth individuals and large property
brokers.
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the approval and started investing in real estate. This will ensue more availability of
funds to the developers and faster growth of real estate industrys. Some examples are
HDFC Real Estate Fund, ICICI - Tishman Speyer, Ascends India IT Park Fund, Kotak
Mahindra Realty Fund, Kshitij Venture Fund, IDFC, Edelweiss Capital, etc.
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The demand momentum is likely to be maintained due to the increasing middle class
families, large student community influx and the growing IT & BPO industry. Prices
across the metros & mini metros are likely to continue to maintain a steady increase due
to the large-scale imbalance in the demand: supply ratio.
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FDI in Real Estate industry can result in the following advantages
• Influx of capital in the industry, which is expected to attract investments at a CAGR
of 5%1 over the next 3 years.
• Introduction of new technology and subsequent improvement in quality of real
estate assets.
According to industry sources the cap on the "min land to be developed" might prove to
be a deterrent in observing the complete impact of the FDI policy because of the scarcity
in the supply of land. Thus, further relaxation on the above guidelines would be
favourable for real estate industry.
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The graph clearly shows the improvement in BSH after the changes in the general
taxation structure in which the tax-exempt limit was raised from Rs. 50,000 in 2004-05 to
Rs. 1,00,000 in 2005-06.
5) Monetary policy: The benign interest rates over the past 4 years have increased the
demand for housing. Thus any change in the interest rate would definitely affect the
demand. The interest rate is firming up off late, but they are no too radical to affect the
demand in negative direction.
6) Entry policies: Change in the number of permits/clearances required for the kick-off
and operation of the project. There are no formal entry policies laid down in the industry
due to its non-industry status.
7) Level of privatization: The proportion of private players in the industry is very high
as compared to the government players like HUDA, MAHDA etc. Increase or decrease in
number of private players wouldn't unfavourable for the industry. Thus this parameter is
neutral to the industry evaluation.
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4.1.2 Cascading effect of output from industries (Scale: 0-4)
This parameter is introduced to capture the dependence of other industries on Real Estate
industry. Following facts about Real Estate enunciates the importance of the industry in
the Indian economy.
• Real Estate accounts for 5.1% of the GDP at constant prices and 6.2% at current
prices.
• It affects many industries such as cement, steel, plumbing, electricity, ceramic ware,
paints etc and consumer durable industry such as woodwork, fitting etc. According to
Cris Infac it has linkages to over 251 industries making its coefficient of linkages to the
rest of the economy very high.
• Housing construction is labour intensive and because of its linkages it generates lots
of employment. Due to its large employment generation potential it ranks fifth in terms
of employment generation multiplier. The labourers have high Marginal propensity to
consume thus the income multiplier effect of housing industry to the economy is around
five.
This parameter must be assessed based on the following sub-parameters:
1) Dependence of other industries on Real Estate industry
2) Industrial category of the industry: This sub parameter assesses whether the industry
belongs to the core sector. Real estate industry forms the core sector of the economy
because of the reasons mentioned above.
3) Income multiplier effect on the economy
4) Employment generating potential
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4.1.3 Cyclicality of the industry (Scale: 0-4)
25
20
15
10
0
89
91
93
97
99
03
05
9
0
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
19
20
(Source: Prowess)
The graph depicts a cyclical trend in the Real Estate industry, which ranges from 4 to 5
years. Real estate industry inherently is not cyclical because the demand for housing
arises from the basic human necessities i.e. food, clothing and shelter. However, due to
the nature of product, real estate is considered as an investment good, which brings in the
element of speculation. Speculation, as a part of demand, is the main reason for the rise
and fall of real estate prices and thus the cyclical nature of the industry. According to
current estimates there is about 25% speculation in the total demand for real estate.
According to industry sources the rise in speculation above this levels will be a cause of
concern as there might be chances of formation of Real Bubble.
The performance of the economy also has a direct impact on the industry as its
importance is already established with the economy in the previous parameter.
Cyclicality affects the earnings stability of the borrower. Cyclicality would be
particularly harmful to medium-size and smaller players as they would not possess the
adequate level of financial strength to bear a recessionary phase.
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Rating of this parameter has been done based on the volatility of the industry PBDIT
margins over period of 15 years. The level of cyclicality should be assessed by:
If the cyclicality trend occurs every 3 years, the industry is perceived to be highly
cyclical. Similarly, if the cyclicality trend is witnessed every 4-6 years, the industry
should be perceived to be moderately cyclical. Industry with low cyclicality is which
where a cyclicality trend is witnessed every 7 years or more.
The industry financial figures should be benchmarked against IDBI’s norms for those
financial parameters in order to assess the relative performance of the industry as against
IDBI’s standards.
Industry aggregate financial statements i.e. profit and loss account and balance sheet
should be obtained from Prowess and converted into a standardized format for financial
analysis. This format is given in Appendix A.
Subsequently ratios should be calculated for the parameters mentioned in the paragraph
below in the same method as those calculated for individual borrowers, for ease of
comparison. The methodology for computing these ratios has been defined in the
‘Financial Analysis’ module. The following industry averages are to be computed and
benchmarked against IDBI standards, after undertaking the trend analysis exercise as
described in the ‘Financial Analysis’ module.
• Profitability:
Earnings before Interest, Tax and Depreciation (‘EBIDTA’) Margin;
Net Profit Margin (‘NPM’); and
Return on Capital Employed (‘RoCE’).
• Capitalisation / Solvency:
Total Debt / Equity (‘TDE’).
• Liquidity:
Current Ratio (‘CR’).
The financial analysis for the sector is performed using the Prowess data for the past 5
years. The following inferences can be drawn from the ratios:
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1. The average receivable, payable and inventory days are very high more than one year,
which is, justified because of the long gestation period of the real estate projects which
normally last for more than two years.
2. The CF-ICR trend gives an insight on the functioning of the industry. Normally at the
start of a project the cash flows are negative as the advance received for the project or for
sub-contract are 25 to 20% of the total revenue. As the project nears the completion the
receivables and thus the current assets increase exponentially, due to the realisation of the
rest 75 to 80% of the revenue in the next financial year. Thus the cash flow becomes
positive and the CF-ICR ratios become more than 1.
3. For correct financial analysis of any company functioning in Real Estate sector its
advisable to take the average of past 4 to 5 years, as this is the average time period for the
completion of any real estate project. This can also be seen from the CF-ICR values of
the industry, which takes a time period of 5 years to become more than 1.
TDE (treating Def. Tax as liability) 5.51 7.10 6.98 7.63 6.53
TDE (not treating Def. Tax as liability) 5.47 7.05 6.92 7.58 6.53
CLTNW 0.86 0.58 0.68 0.99 0.80
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4.1.5 Industry Structure (Scale 0-6)
An organised and competitive industry structure always helps in the healthy growth of
the industry. This parameter is assessed using the following sub-parameters:
• Extent of competition: This is evaluated on the basis of entry barriers, bargaining
power of suppliers of raw material and customers, pricing flexibility, reputation equity.
Ineffective entry barriers results into many small players crowding the sector. Real Estate
industry is labour intensive. The industry is also region/city specific i.e. each region has
its own set of builders and there are few national players on the marquee. Both these
factors have resulted into crowding of the industry with many developers and contractors.
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There are some unique features of real estate, which has resulted into unconventional
factors influencing the normal demand supply dynamics for e.g. speculation. The features
being:
Ø Durability: The piece of real estate lasts for more than 10 to 15 years.
Ø Immobility
Ø High Transaction cost
Ø Heterogeneity: Each piece of real estate is different from the other in terms of
location, construction etc. thus pricing cannot be homogeneous.
Ø Long delay between the demand and the supply.
(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_economics#Demand_for_housing)
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Organised retail is increasing at CAGR of 43%. The change in perception of brands,
rising disposable income, growth in retail malls, entry of international players are the
key drivers for the growth of organized retail.
(Source: Cris Infac)
Supply Factors:
• Cost of raw materials: Building materials, labour, electricity, etc.
• Office vacancy rate.
• Regulations: Real estate is a state matter where each state has its own regulation for
the developers, transfer of property, ownership of property and the terms of relationship
between the tenants and landlords.
o ULCRA: This act was passed to prevent the hoarding of the land and increase the
supply of land, by imposition of ceiling on ownership and possession of vacant land.
However, the act failed in its objective and accounted for only 47550 acres of the
available 550000 acres of vacant land in 64 cities. Thus creating a shortage of supply.
In order to release the remaining land the act was repealed in 1999 by an ordinance
and ULCRA replaced the initial ordinance.
o CRZ notification: This regulation imposed restriction on construction activities in
the Coastal Regulation Zone.
o Building and Construction workers cess act: This act is to provide for the levy and
collection of cess on the construction cost incurred by the developer/owner in order to
increase the resources of the construction workers’ welfare board.
o Transfer of Property act: This includes the registration act and the stamp duty.
Stamp duty varies from state to state and is as high as 14% in some of the states. This
is said to be the main reason for avoiding the registration of land.
o Property Tax: Charged by the Municipal Corporation for the basic upkeep of the
facilities. This is to be paid by the owner.
o Rent Control Act: It encompasses the issues such chargeable rents, recovery and
possession of property and tenancy rights. This act is cited as the chief reason for
decrease in supply of housing stock because of its main premise i.e. “neither the
tenant nor the landlord owns the property”. (Source: Cris Infac)
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Analysis: The supply constraints and the increasing end-user demand have resulted
into shortage of supply. The supply constraint is the result of the archaic regulations
mentioned above.
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4.2 Developer / Promoter
A Real Estate Project involves following entities, responsible for its successful execution
and implementation:
1. Land Owner: Many projects are executed where the landowner brings in the land
and contracts the developer/contractor to develop the property.
2. Developer: Developer develops the complex (residential/township/commercial) on
the land owned by the landowner (third party) or himself. In many cases the developer
himself constructs the complex and does involve a civil contractor for the same.
3. Contractor: Undertakes construction of the complex on a contractual basis with the
landowner or developer.
4. Consultant/Architect/Structural Engineers: Provide the technical inputs, in terms
of feasibility, in-time completion, design etc., to the developer
The analysis of the past financial performance of the promoter is used to capture the
operational and financial performance of the promoter. In this parameter the credit
officer must evaluate the promoter on the following sub-parameters:
• Profitability (using EBIDTA margin, NPM and RoCE);
• Solvency (using TDE and Contingent Liabilities / Total Tangible Net Worth
(‘CLTNW’)); and
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• Cash flow (‘CF’) adequacy (using CF Interest Coverage Ratio (‘ICR’) and CF Debt
Service Coverage Ratio (‘DSCR’)).
The methodology for computing these ratios has been defined in the ‘Financial Analysis’
module. The financial analysis of the promoter should be conducted over a 4-year
period, using the trend analysis method defined in the ‘Financial Analysis’ module. The
profitability ratios and the TDE ratio must be compared to industry averages, while the
CLTNW and the CF adequacy ratios must be compared to IDBI benchmarks. Each ratio
must then be scored as per the scales provided in the Annexure 2.
The performance of the group to which the promoter belongs will impact the ability of
the promoter to honour commitments to the project. For example, if the group has a
number of loss making companies, the promoter might not be successful in providing the
desired financial support to the project. Also, there might be instances of funds diversion
from the project company to support some poorly performing group companies. Hence it
is important to assess the performance of the group to which the promoter belongs. The
key areas of concern are:
Each of the above sub-parameters is rated individually. The first two sub-parameters
must be rated as per the scales provided in Annexure 2. For the third sub-parameter, the
credit officer must perform the financial analysis of the flagship company / companies. In
order to assess the financial health of the flagship company / companies of the group the
credit officer must assess the following key ratios:
33
The final score for this parameter will be computed in the following manner:
• Compute the arithmetic mean of the scores for the first two sub-parameters;
• The sum of the above two scores shall constitute the score for this parameter.
34
Thus a promoter developing his first project in the city would be rated lower than a
promoter developing his second or third project in the city/region.
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4.2.7 Conduct of promoter’s account (Scale: 0-8)
This parameter assesses the promoter’s reputation in the context of honouring financial
and non-financial commitments to its lenders in normal and difficult times. The sub-
parameters on which the borrower must be assessed are:
• Timely payment of interest and principal to IDBI (for an existing borrower); and
If the promoter is not an existing borrower, then the assessment would be in the context
of honouring financial and non-financial commitments to other financial institutions /
banks.
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the company under appraisal: Real Estate industry is marked by fragmentation and is
region specific. Thus there is no company, which can be termed as market leader in terms
market share. This trend is observed worldwide where the maximum market share is in
tune of 1%. Thus comparison based on market share will not give the correct picture.
Companies from different locations cannot also be used for comparison. For e.g.
Hiranandani construction group has predominance in Mumbai and Ansal Properties in
Delhi, rendering their comparison illogical. Thus one criteria that can be used for
comparison is the number of projects completed by the company as compared to its rival
in the same city/region
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4.3 Management quality
The management of the project company makes the basic policy decisions, arranges the
financing, provides information to lenders and investors and is responsible for the overall
monitoring and administering of the project. For the project to be successful, the
management team must be experienced, have good working relationships with lenders,
workers, suppliers, customers etc and implement strong internal controls for the effective
and efficient operations of the project. This module assesses the management quality and
to an extent the willingness of the borrower to repay its debt obligations through
parameters such as the technical expertise of management personnel, corporate
governance, labour and employee relations, timely honouring of financial and other
commitments etc.
The scales for rating the parameters given in the module are provided in Annexure 3.
This parameter assesses the technical expertise of key management personnel. The level
of technical expertise of the personnel determines the skill of the human resources to
operate efficiently, solve problems and complete difficult tasks in a time bound manner.
The borrower should be evaluated on the following two sub-parameters:
• Qualifications of key personnel (assess the level of theoretical knowledge in the same
sector); and
The sum of the scores of the above sub-parameters should be the final score to evaluate
this parameter.
The presence of collaboration or a joint venture enhances the management’s ability either
to market the product or to strengthen its financial position. Besides, a technical tie-up
38
can prove beneficial to the firm in terms of having a competitive advantage over its peers.
An organisation with a collaboration / joint venture will receive a score of 4, while an
organisation with no collaboration / joint venture will receive a score of 0. Company like
DLF is an example which will receive 4 in this parameter.
• Broad-based board composition (for example having independent directors with full
voting rights);
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• Presence of disaster management / contingency plans;
• Strong reporting and control systems: Now a days many big construction companies
are using IT for efficient intra-organsiation reporting and documentation, thus
enhancing their control systems. Presence of IT infrastructure can be one of the
factors to evaluate this parameter.
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this parameter. However this parameter must be compulsorily chosen for each
subsequent appraisal. The areas on which the borrower must be assessed are:
1) Timely re-payment of interest and principal to IDBI;
2) Timely submission of information such as quarterly progress reports, audited
accounts, reports from independent consultants / engineers (during the
construction phase) and other information, as and when required; and
3) Timely completion of security documentation, renewals of insurance policies
covering security pledged with the bank.
If the borrower has defaulted on the repayment of interest or principal, the credit officer
should automatically assign a score of ‘0’ to this parameter, irrespective of whether the
information requirements and security documentation has been provided on time.
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• Payment of interest and repayment of principal to other financial institutions /
banks.
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4.4 Significant Project Party
This module will evaluate the remaining two entities involved in any Real Estate project.
The contractor is responsible for all civil works including water, roads, drainage systems,
and electricity and plumbing works, which are part of construction activities. The
contractor is pivotal in completing the project within stipulated time schedule and
according to the design given by the architect.
In many cases the developer or promoter himself will be the constructing the project, thus
there will be no civil contractor in such cases. Civil contractor module will not be
activated in such cases and the weightage of the developer/promoter module will increase
by the percentage points assigned to the civil contractor module. In this module the
following parameters must be evaluated for each contractor based on the scales provided
in Annexure 4. This module will only remain active during the initial and construction
phases. It will be deactivated in the operations and maintenance phase.
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• Hands-on experience in the past (extent of practical working experience): Number of
years of experience is one of the evaluation criteria.
The contractor(s) should be scored on each of the above sub-parameters. The sum total
of the scores of each of the above sub-parameters should be taken as the final score.
The financial performance of the contractor should be analysed based on the profitability,
solvency and cash flow adequacy ratios of the contractor. The analysis of the financial
health must be done in the same way as that for a promoter and the methodology for
scoring the same has been provided in the ‘Promoter’ module as shown in Annexure 2.
• On a preferential basis; or
Under the preferential basis of selection of the contractor, there could be an underlying
risk that the selection of the contractor was not done in an objective manner. This could
be because of the contractor’s close links with the promoter company arising from a
familial or a fiduciary relationship. Such a method of selection could lead to the selection
of an inexperienced or technically incompetent contractor for the project.
However, in the Real Estate industry normally the contractor has a long-standing
relationship with the developer. Thus more weightage cannot be given to this parameter,
as the contractor on preferential basis cannot be considered technically incompetent.
The competitive bidding process (through invite of tenders) considers the following
parameters for the selection of the contractor:
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• Experience of the contractor;
Thus, a contractor selected through the competitive bidding process will get a higher
score as compared to one selected on a preferential basis.
The contract between the project company and the contractor is instrumental in
transferring the construction / completion risk from the management of the project
company to the contractor. This means that the contractor hands over the project to the
management of the company only after the successful construction within the timelines
agreed upon, for a fixed consideration agreed upon in advance.
Significant clauses present in the contract can be clubbed into the following areas:
• Scope of work: For example, overall responsibility for the co-ordination and
communication between the contractors, right to appoint approved sub-contractors
and consultants, tenure of the contract and provision for extending the validity of the
contract, determination of performance guarantees (operational and efficiency
parameters);
• Legal coverage: For example, liquidated damages / penalties for non-adherence to the
implementation schedule, non-performance with respect to guaranteed levels and
non-adherence to emission limits as guaranteed, limitation of liabilities, force majeure
risks, termination of the contract, insurance, arbitration and resolution of disputes;
The contract specific clause should be obtained from the legal department on case-to-case
basis. However, some common clauses in construction contracts are:
• Clause for liquidated damages/ bonus payment: already explained in legal
coverage.
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• Suspension of work: In cases where the work has to be suspended for unavoidable
circumstances, then the contract should cater to this delay in work and the
payment discrepancies which arise thereon.
• Variation in estimated quantities: It is generally observed in the construction
industry that there is a mismatch between the technical calculations for the raw
material required and the actual usage. To share or transfer the risk of this
variation the contract should stipulate the price of the extra quantity of raw
material required than stated in the contract.
It is of utmost importance for the credit officer to ensure that the contract is:
• A Balanced contract.
Bankable contract: The contract should lay down the role and responsibilities of each
party to the contract, to avoid confusion and conflict on breach of the terms of the
contract. Unclear terms and conditions of the contract can lead to litigations between the
project company and the contractor, thus stalling the construction o. A ‘bankable’ or an
‘enforceable’ contract will ensure that the contract is valid, legal and a binding obligation
for the parties involved in accordance with the terms and conditions as specified. The
credit officer, with assistance from IDBI’s legal department, should score the sub-
parameter based on the assessment of the ‘enforceability’ of the clauses (as mentioned
above and also those identified subsequently) contained in the contract.
Balanced contract: This means that transferring them to other parties adequately mitigates
all risks arising in the contract. For example, any penalties paid by the project company,
due to the lack of efficiency or non-performance of the contractor should be adequately
recovered from other parties (for example through an insurance cover). Thus, a
‘balanced’ contract, along with other agreements, ensures that all risks faced by the
project company during the construction phase are transferred / allocated in a ‘balanced’
manner, fixing responsibilities and ownership for these risks.
The sum of the scores given to each of the sub-parameters shall be taken as the final
score for this parameter.
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4.4.1.5 Terms of payment (Scale: 0-4)
One of the most significant components of the project cost is the contract value payable
to the contractor for undertaking the construction of the project. The factors to be
considered by the credit officer while assessing the terms of payment to the contractor
should be, but not limited to:
Same as developer
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• Frequency of labour disputes
This parameter assesses the technical expertise of the contractor(s) and their level of past
experience. The level of technical expertise of the personnel determines the skill of the
human resources to operate efficiently, ensure proper construction as per requirements,
solve problems and complete difficult tasks in a time bound manner. The contractor
should be evaluated on the following two sub-parameters:
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4.4.2.3 Relevance of experience to project (Scale 0-8)
The past experience and the current type of project undertaken determine the relevance of
the project patry's experience to the project. The key issues which a credit officer must
consider while assessing this parameter is number of similar types of the projects.
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4.5 Project Risks
Project risks are those risks, which are specific to the project being undertaken. These
project risks are divided into the following sub-modules:
• General: General risks are those, which are present in a project right from the
developmental phase (conception of the idea), till the construction and the operation
and maintenance phase. Since general risks are present in all the phases of the project,
this sub-module will be activated during each phase of the project.
• Complexities: These are risks in the project, which arise due to the complexities in-
built in the construction of the project. Complexities can arise on account of the
design of the project, the justification of project cost or the extent of incompletion of
the project. The complexities in a project play a significant role in the manner in
which the construction of the project progresses and therefore these need to be
assessed closely. Complexities are only relevant till the completion of construction;
thus sub-module remains activated only during the initial appraisal and the
construction phases of the appraisal process.
• Construction: Construction risk is one of the most important risks in project financing.
This is because the project receives funding (both debt and equity) at the construction
stage and the level of success in constructing / completing the project on time and
within budget has a significant impact on the financial performance of the borrower
and its debt servicing capacity. Significant risks assessed during the construction
phase include (but are not limited to) the adherence to implementation schedule, level
of cost overruns and the successful funding of cost overruns. Construction risks need
to be assessed during the construction phase only and therefore this module shall be
activated during the construction phase only.
• Principal Anchor(s): Principal anchor risk is assessed for commercial projects given
on lease. This sub module is the evaluation of lessee acquiring more than 35% of the
space in the project. The principal anchor(s) will be the main source of revenue in the
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form of lease rentals. Significant risks assessed for principal anchor are the financial r,
reputation, tenure of loan etc.
• Operations: Risks faced by the project once it starts commercial operations are
assessed in this sub-module. During the operations & maintenance phase the project
begins to function as a regular operating business. Risks to be assessed during
operations & maintenance phase would include the obtaining statutory clearances etc.
This sub-module shall be activated only after the completion of construction.
4.5.1 General
In this sub-module the following parameters must be evaluated as per scales provided in
Annexure 5A
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i. Speculation: Cities like Gurgaon where the Real Estate activities are at its peak;
speculation of about 30 to 40% is estimated. Such high levels of speculation is
detrimental to the project as there is a risk of price/rentals crashing down once the
speculation reaches unsustainable level. The credit officer should get the current
estimates of the speculation from the industry sources and should rate the parameter. If
the speculation is higher than sustainable level then a low score should be given.
ii. Relaxation of regulations: The local authorities govern Regualtions in Real Estate.
If the state or municipal corporation relaxes the regulations like Rent Control Act etc.,
which are the main reasons for creating the artificial shortage of supply of land, the
supply would increase resulting in supply of land nearby the project under consideration.
This might lead to fall in prices, as many new projects would compete with the project.
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affiliates / unrecognised institutions. If the debt requirements are funded by financial
institutions / banks, it adds a level of credibility to the project. On the other hand,
unsecured loans from group companies may not be a reliable source of funds for the
entire life of the project, as these loans may be recalled at any time during the life of the
project. Hence it becomes important to assess the quality of debt i.e. source and tenure of
debt.
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7) Nature of project (Scale 0-2)
The repayment of loan, in case of Real Estate projects, is done either through advance
payment received by the customers or through lease rentals payment received from the
lessee. Advance payment structure is followed in the housing/township projects where
the buyers of residential complexes have to furnish certain advance at the time of booking
the house. Whereas, in lease rental structure, followed in commercial projects, lessee
furnishes the lease rentals once he has taken the charge of the property i.e. after the
construction of the project. Thus in case of housing projects the repayment of loan starts
within one or two years of the commencement of construction and in commercial projects
the same starts after the construction of the project and commencement of the operations
by the commercial player.
Commercial projects are more risky than housing project and should be given lesser
score.
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• Easy availability of manpower.
• Developed infrastructure for IT.
• Office vacancy rate.
Factors for mall:
• Nearness to future human catchments.
• Ample parking space.
• Frontage provided.
• Nature of Product: This parameter assesses the risk exposure in terms of customer
default. If the property is catering to only one type of customer i.e. IT office space then
the developer faces the risk of default from the customer, which in turn would affect the
repayment of loan. Thus a project, which derives demand from various categories of
customer, mitigates this risk for e.g. a township project or a commercial project including
mall and office space etc.
• Promotion strategy: Should be in sync with the positioning and targeting strategy.
A project taken under Slum Rehabilitation Act cannot be positioned and targeted to
middle class segment. It would be best suited for segment moving from ‘kuchha house to
pucca house’.
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ownership risk. Thus first project of the developer will be scored lower as compared to
his second or third project.
4.5.2 Complexities
In this sub-module the following parameters must be evaluated based on the scales
provided in Annexure 5 B.
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2) Extent of incompletion (Scale 0-8)
In this parameter the credit officer must rate the risk due to the extent of incompletion of
a project. Extent of incompletion refers to the amount of work remaining for completing
the construction of the project. Inherently, the maximum risk in the project lies at the
inception of the construction phase, since the entire project needs to be constructed from
scratch. As the project progresses and certain parts of the project are constructed the risk
starts to decline. If a project is 90 per cent complete, the risk is only to the extent of the
balance 10 per cent that remains to be completed. Hence a project, which is 90 per cent
complete, will get a higher score in this parameter, than a project, which is 50 per cent
complete, even if it is on schedule.
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revenues. Thus it becomes necessary to validate the occupancy levels, as any decrease in
the actual levels as compared to the projected ones will result in lesser revenue
recognition.
• Comparison of the escalation of lease rentals with the market levels: In case of
commercial property given on lease, the developer predicts the future revenue based on
the lease rentals and the escalation of the same year-on-year basis. The escalation
percentage has to be benchmarked against the current market levels.
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The credit officer should first compute the project IRR from the projected cashflows and
then compute the cost of capital using the models as mentioned above. The scores for the
parameter would be allocated as per the scales in Annexure 5. If the IRR is less than the
cost of capital, then the project should be rejected.
4.5.3 Construction
In this sub-module the following parameters must be evaluated based on the scales
provided in Annexure 5 C.
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would cause delay, causing time over run and thus add to the project completion risk. The
credit officer can score the parameter using the following two factors:
• Number of accidents on the construction site
• Frequency of the accidents
5. Have the cost overrun in the past been successfully funded (Scale 0-8)
The successful funding of cost overruns by the management of the project company in
the past reflects the ability of the management to raise additional capital for the project
and thus strengthen their commitment to the completion of the project. In order to
mitigate this risk, lenders normally prescribe the arrangement of standby equity by the
promoters, as a pre-disbursement condition, in a form and manner acceptable to the
lenders, to be utilized towards overrun, if any.
The credit officer should make a note of any cost overruns that the project had in the past
and also whether such an overrun was funded in time. Projects, where a cost overrun was
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funded on time, would be scored high as compared to those projects where the cost
overrun was not funded at all or was funded after a considerable delay.
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4.5.4 Principal anchor/anchors
This module should be initiated when principal anchor is occupying more than 35% of
space in the commercial project. The module should evaluate each anchor (if more than
one company occupies more than 35% of the commercial space) individually. For
example in a shopping mall if Pantaloons and BigBazzar occupy more than 80% of the
space then both will be considered as Principal Anchor and will be scores based on the
following sub-parameters:
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3) Market position (Scale 0-4)
This parameter can be evaluated by comparing market share and turnover with the
corresponding industry leader. For e.g. while assessing an IT company Infosys can be
used the benchmark.
4.5.5 Operation
This module will be functional for the commercial real estate, which is on lease basis.
3) Comparison of the projected occupancy level with the actual. (Scale 0-4)
This parameter is important for malls and office space where there is more than one
lessee. The developer makes projection at the construction phase for the occupancy levels
and predicts the cash inflows. At the operations phase its imperative to compare the
projected and actual occupancy levels, as it would affect the repayment of loan.
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4) Quality assurance and initiatives (Scale 0-2)
The lessee may undertake certain initiatives, which underline the management
commitment towards establishing and following certain well-accepted standards and
practices. This might help the lessee to become efficient in certain operations or might
help to establish a good standard of management and administration. If the lessee has
undertaken such initiatives, then scores should be assigned as per the type of initiatives
undertaken. The borrower should be scored on the following sub-parameters:
• Quality certification (e.g. ISO 9000 or SEI CMM levels for software companies);
• Collaborations and marketing alliances;
• Awards for management excellence and strategic moves by the borrower.
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4.6 Financial Analysis
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The ‘Financial Analysis’ module aims to assess the profitability, capitalisation / solvency,
liquidity and cash flow adequacy (parameters) that affect the financial health of the
borrower.
Main components of the financial analysis module:
The ‘Financial Analysis’ module has been further divided into 3 sub-modules, namely:
• Future projections: This sub-module involves estimating the level of future cash
flows of the borrower. This sub-module is very important since the level of safety for the
servicing of a debt facility (in terms of interest and principal) is determined by the level
of generation of cash flows in the future.
• Actuals versus projections: This sub-module involves the comparison of the
financial performance of the borrower for the latest financial year as compared to the
projections prepared by the credit officer for that year. This is to enable the credit officer
to estimate the borrower's ability to realistically meet the targets set in the projections.
The actual performance can be compared to projections only after the project is in
operation and actual results of operation are available, hence this sub-module will be
activated only when the project has been in operation for at least 1 year.
• Past financial performance: This sub-module involves an in-depth analysis of the
past financial performance of the borrower. This sub-module will be activated only after
the project has been in operation for certain period of time. The time will be determined
individually for each project based on the time envisaged initially by the borrower for the
project to achieve break-even status.
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following parameters, as well as industry dynamics and macro economy factors, while
making a set of financial projections:
• Assumptions for increase in occupancy rate/booking rate for commercial property
and housing property respectively.
• Impact of changes in sales price;
• Impact of regulatory changes;
• Assumptions on construction costs which will also include contractual obligations
to the contractor;
• Future funding sources - debt or internal accruals, and the consequent levels of
gearing;
• Future share holding pattern.
It should be noted that the above is only an illustrative list and not an exhaustive one.
Specific parameters will need to be considered which may be different from project to
project for e.g. assumption for the escalation of lease rentals year-on-year basis.
The projected set of financial statements prepared by the credit officer or supplied by the
developer should form the ‘base case’ scenario, i.e. a situation that incorporates the most
possible outcomes on the key variables affecting the macro economic environment, the
industry and the project. The base case projections prepared for the future should be
subjected to ‘stress testing’ or ‘sensitivity analysis’ to ascertain the degree of variance
under ‘key variables’. This assesses the maximum ‘downside’ possibility of the
borrower’s repayment ability and thus allows the credit officer to take a comprehensive
view on the risk involved in sanctioning a loan for the project.
Sensitivity analysis also becomes more important in view of the fact that borrowers exist
in a dynamic external environment. Due to the industry dynamics and macro economic
factors, sudden changes take place in the external environment which can have either
positive or negative effects on the performance of any project / organisation. This would
result in a substantial change in the borrower’s financial performance, and these changes
would alter the future level of cash generation of the borrower and thus its ability to repay
debt obligations, either partly or completely.
‘Sensitivity analysis’ can be done on the following parameters:
• Expected occupancy rate/booking rate
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• Expected revenue generated through lease/advance booking.
The most conservative set of projected of financials prepared by the credit officer after
performing such sensitivity analysis will form the ‘worst case’ scenario.
After the projections have been prepared, they should be assessed on the following
parameters (for base case and worst case):
• Cash flow (‘CF’) adequacy; and
• Capitalisation / Solvency.
In these parameters the following ratios need to be computed:
If the CF DSCR computed for the ‘base case’ or ‘worse case’ scenarios for any year is
less than 1 then the project should be rejected. Further, if in any subsequent appraisal the
projected / actual CF DSCR for any year is less than 1 then, it should act as an ‘exit filter’
for the loan. The formulae for computing these ratios have been defined subsequently.
The scoring of these ratios is to be done as per the scales provided in Annexure 6A. The
sum of the scores of all the ratios will constitute the score for the sub-module.
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4.6.2 Actuals versus projections
The objective of undertaking the exercise of the comparison of the actual financial
performance with past projections is to enable the credit officer to understand the
achievement of the targets set by the borrower for the latest financial year. The credit
officer should compare the actual financial performance of the borrower to the
projections prepared by IDBI The comparison of the projections to actual financial
performance would enable the credit officer to ascertain deviations from the projections
and the reasons for the deviations. The comparison should be done on the following
parameters
• Achievement of revenues;
• Achievement of profitability;
• Capitalisation / Solvency;
• CF adequacy; and
Since the deviations in these parameters are to be ascertained, the following ratios need to
be worked out on the above parameters:
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Table: Ratios for parameters for comparison of actuals with projections
0-4
0-4
0-4
The parameters should be scored as per the scales given in Annexure 6B. The sum of the
scores of all the ratios will constitute the score for the sub-module.
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4.6.3 Past financial performance
As mentioned earlier, the past financial analysis section will be activated only after the
project has achieved break-even status. The sub-module comprises the following
parameters:
• Growth in revenues;
• Profitability;
• Capitalisation / Solvency;
• CF adequacy; and
NPM 0-4
RoCE 0-8
CF DSCR 0-12
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Liquidity and Current Ratio 0-4
activity ratios Average Receivables Days 0-4
After picking the ratios for the last three years, the credit officer should observe the trend
in the ratios (trend analysis must be done for all ratios, other than CLTNW, CF ICR and
CF DSCR). If a ratio like NPM has been declining constantly, then the latest financial
year’s ratio should be picked for scoring. If there has been an increasing trend, then the
average ratio of the last three years should be taken, as a conservative measure. If there
is no trend, then the last financial year’s ratio should be taken. This method should be
applied for all ratios in this sub-module, except for the following ratios, where the exact
opposite should be done TDE;
For example, if the TDE shows a decreasing trend, then the average ratio of the last 3
years should be taken as a conservative measure. If there is an increasing trend or if there
is no trend, then the last year’s ratio should be considered.
− After this process is completed, the credit officer is now ready to score the
borrower on ‘Past financial performance’ sub-module. All formulae for ratios
mentioned in this sub-module are provided subsequently.
The scales for scoring the above parameters is given in Annexure 6C. The sum of the
scores of all the parameters will constitute the score for the sub-module.
IDBI has fixed benchmarks for certain ratios, outlined in the following table:
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4.6.4 Definition of ratios for all sub-modules
Profitability
The EBIDTA assesses the profitability of the main operations of the borrower, arising
from the income from the primary sources of revenue. Non-operating income like
investment income is not taken into account, as it is not a sustainable and stable source of
income. The level of operations of the project and the level of competition existing in the
industry are some of the factors, which influence this ratio.
The EBIDTA also captures the cost structure of a borrower for all cost items except
interest, depreciation, taxes and amortisations. This can help the credit officer assess the
cost efficiency of the operations of the borrower and benchmark it to either industry
standards or against other borrowers for comparison. A borrower may be able to
command a significant premium for its products and services in the market, but an
inefficient cost structure will restrict the borrower’s profitability. For example, Air India
charges approximately Rs 50,000 for a round-trip ticket, economy class, for the Mumbai-
London-Mumbai sector. Its competitors such as Air France or Lufthansa sometimes
charge a lower fare for the same sector on the same class, but are more profitable than Air
India which is a loss making airline. The reason is that Air India is saddled with un-
economic capacities, a large work force and old aircraft (resulting in high maintenance
expenses), all of which have resulted in a high cost of sales. This ratio is computed as
follows:
EBIDTA margin {Operating profit before interest, depreciation and tax} X 100
=
Operating income
Operating income includes revenue generated from the main operations of the borrower
i.e. revenues from sales / turnover / services and other related income, net of excise duty.
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Ratio 2 – Net Profit Margin
The NPM assesses the total profitability of the operations of the borrower, after providing
for interest, depreciation and taxes. It provides a measure of net profits earned as a
percentage of the revenues. In that sense the NPM is very similar to the EBIDTA
margin. The key differences in these two ratios are:
• In the EBIDTA margin only operating revenues are considered for assessing
profitability, whereas in the NPM all sources of income (both operating and non-
operating) are considered for assessing profitability; and
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The unit for measurement of the NPM is ‘percentage’.
The RoCE is one of the most important parameters of profitability. It assesses the return
on the ‘investment’ made in the borrower’s business by the main stakeholders who
provide capital i.e. the shareholders and the lenders (banks or financial institutions).
Ideally, the RoCE should be more than the weighted average cost of capital for the
borrower. Only if it is more than the weighted average cost of capital, then the suppliers
of capital can hope for adequate level of rewards from investing in the borrower’s
business. If the RoCE is lower than the cost of capital, the business is not generating
enough returns for the amount of capital invested. It represents an opportunity loss for
the capital providers, as the business does not generate enough value for adequate returns.
This ratio is computed as follows:
For computation of the above ratio, the term ‘Debt’ and ‘Total Tangible Net Worth’ must
be computed as follows:
Debt
− Long term debt including preference share capital, debentures, foreign currency term
loans and all other term loans (repayable after twelve months);
− Short term debt including fixed deposits, inter-corporate borrowings and loans /
advances from affiliate companies and subsidiaries; and
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Debt Long term debt + Short term debt + Bank borrowings /
=
cash credit
Capitalisation / Solvency
The overall objective in determining the total debt equity ratio is to ensure that there is a
proper balance between the owned funds and borrowed funds and that there is no eroding
impact on the profitability by disproportionate burden of long term debt. This ratio is the
most important parameter of solvency because it captures the capitalisation or the level of
‘gearing’ of the borrower. The level of gearing indicates the level of financial risk faced
by the borrower on account of the level of debt employed by the firm. A high level of
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debt can lead to high gearing which is financially risky, as the borrower would have to
service fixed obligations on the debt taken (in the form of interest or principal)
irrespective of whether the business is making a profit or a loss.
The Total Debt / Equity Ratio, has been developed for IDBI considers total long term and
short term debt and all current liabilities are also included in the figure of total debt. This
is a conservative stand because in the event of liquidation, the borrower will have to
repay all the outside liabilities, including debt from banks and outstanding on account of
payables or other liabilities from the total tangible net worth of the company. This ratio
is computed as follows:
‘Total Debt’ includes ‘Debt’ as defined earlier plus any other outside liabilities and
provisions. ‘Equity’ means the same as ‘Total Tangible Net Worth’.
A borrower can have two main types of liabilities. Liabilities, which have accrued and
are repayable immediately or at some point of time in the future, are shown in the balance
sheet on the liabilities side. There are other liabilities, which may or may not devolve
upon the borrower in the future, which are called contingent liabilities. Some examples
of these liabilities can be guarantees given, tax claims under dispute etc. If a contingent
liability devolves on the borrower, then the borrower’s tangible net worth might be
reduced to the extent of the amount of the contingent liability. The Bank might not want
a situation where a contingent liability devolving upon the borrower erodes the entire
tangible net worth of the borrower. This ratio measures the amount of contingent
liabilities as a proportion of the total tangible net worth.
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CLTNW Contingent liabilities
=
Total Tangible Net
Worth
This ratio calculates the cash coverage for interest payments generated from the
operations of the project. Here cash flow from operations is taken in the numerator and
the amount of interest paid is taken in the denominator. The amount of interest paid may
be different from the amount of interest charged in the Profit and Loss Account as the
amount of interest paid may include interest paid in the current financial year, relating to
accruals in the previous financial year. To compute the average CF ICR for the entire
period of the loan, sum of the cash flow from operations for each year is taken in the
numerator and the sum of the amount of interest paid during the tenure of the loan is
taken in the denominator. The average CF ICR is only required for scoring the parameter
on Cash flow adequacy in the ‘Future projections’ sub-module.
n
∑(NOCF1 )
CF ICR (average)
=
Total interest paid during the tenure of the loan
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For computation of the above ratio ‘NOCF’ must be computed as follows:
This ratio calculates the cash coverage for the entire debt obligation, generated by the
cash from the operations of the borrower. Here, cash flow from operations is taken in the
numerator and the amount of interest paid and the amount of debt repaid (for all types of
loans) is taken in the denominator. If at the time of the initial appraisal the projected CF
DSCR for any year is less than 1 then the proposal should be rejected.
To compute the average CF DSCR for the entire period of the loan, sum of the cash flow
from operations for each year is taken in the numerator and the sum of the amount of debt
repayments and interest paid during the tenure of the loan is taken in the denominator.
The average CF DSCR is only required for scoring the parameter on Cash flow adequacy
in the ‘Future projections’ sub-module.
n
∑(NOCF1 )
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CF DSCR (average)
=
(Total debts repaid during the tenure of the loan +
Total interest paid during the tenure of the loan)
Any business requires free cash flow to survive and conduct its daily operations, and also
for future capital expansion. Inflows from receivables, payments to suppliers, and
inventory holdings determine the levels of liquidity in any organisation. It is crucial to
maintain good levels of liquidity in order to serve the operational needs of the business.
Some businesses are working capital intensive, and have long receivables periods, while
some hold high inventory levels due to the uncertain nature of customer demands. To
fund working capital requirements, many borrowers approach banks, which give them
finance in the form of cash credit, which has a cost in terms of interest. Some indicators,
which can give an idea about the levels of liquidity prevalent in the business, are current
and quick ratios. The credit rating model uses the current ratio as a measure of liquidity.
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borrower’s ability to remain solvent in the event of adversity, by the use of the current
ratio. Generally, a high current ratio indicates a high level of liquidity for the borrower.
Banks in India have fixed a benchmark of 1.33 times for an indicative current ratio, based
on the Tandon Committee Recommendations. However, different industries have
different levels of current ratios, and the credit officer should compare the borrower’s
current ratio with the industry average for a more accurate assessment.
CR Current assets
=
Current liabilities
Current liabilities mainly comprise bank borrowings / cash credit, payables (or creditors),
other liabilities like security deposits; payments accrued to government agencies etc and
provisions such as provision for tax and dividend.
This ratio measures the quality of the borrower’s receivables and the success of the
borrower in collections. The credit officer can also gauge the bargaining power of the
borrower with customers, as the ratio indicates the type of credit terms offered to
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customers. A borrower with a high level of bargaining power may be able to offer
stringent credit terms to customers and vice versa. The ratio indicates the amount of time
(in days) that the receivables are outstanding, before they are collected. For example, an
average receivables collections period of 30 days means that on an average the
receivables are collected only after 30 days after the date of sale. The ratio takes into
account the average level of receivables for the calculation of the ratio, as the year-end
receivables figure may not be representative of the level of the receivables during the
course of the financial year. This ratio is computed as follows:
This ratio measures the promptness of the payment made by the borrower to suppliers of
raw materials and stores. It can also enable the credit officer to gauge the bargaining
power of the borrower with its suppliers, in terms of the credit terms enjoyed. A
borrower with a high level of bargaining power may be able to enjoy a high level of
credit from its suppliers and vice versa. The ratio takes into account the average level of
payables for the calculation of the ratio, as the year-end payables figure may not be
representative of the level of payables during the course of the financial year.
82
The unit of measurement for this ratio is ‘days’.
This ratio measures the effectiveness of the borrower’s management of inventory. The
ratio indicates the amount of time (in days) that the borrower holds inventories, right
from the time the raw materials are purchased till the time the finished goods are sold.
For example, an average inventories holding period of 30 days means that the inventory
is held for 30 days, from the time raw material is purchased till the time it is converted
into finished goods and sold in the market. Generally, a lower inventory-holding period
indicates a faster manufacturing or conversion cycle for the borrower. The borrower also
avoids the risk of obsolescence or perishability by holding the inventories for a shorter
period of time. A lower period also indicates that the borrower’s reliance on working
capital for inventories is low, thus increasing the financial flexibility for the borrower.
The ratio takes into account the average level of inventories for the calculation of the
ratio, as the year-end inventories figure may not be representative of the level of the
inventories during the course of the financial year. This ratio is computed as follows:
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5. THE GRADING SYSTEM USED BY THE CREDIT RATING MODEL
A 13 grade grading system is used in IDBI and the same has been used for this credit
rating model. The grading system uses a 100-point scale, starting from 0 and ending in
100. Alphabetical symbols are used to denote each risk grade. For ease of comparison,
the entire system has been compartmentalised into three categories. These categories are:
• Accept or grow;
• Hold or reject or monitor closely; and
• Exit or reject.
84
PA 65-68
PA- 60-64
Hold / Reject / Close Monitoring PB 45-59
Exit (not under default) PC 35-44
Exit (default) PD+ 31-34
PD 21-30
PD- 00-20
Grade Definition
PAAA Excellent credit quality, with negligible number risk factors, not at all materiali
+ in nature. Timely servicing of debt obligations can be reasonably assured in the
long term.
PAAA Very good credit quality, with the number of risk factors only marginally higher
than those for loans facilities in the AAA+ grade. Timely servicing of debt
obligations can be reasonably assured in the long term.
PAA+ Good credit quality, with an acceptable number of risk factors, not at all
material in nature. Timely servicing of debt obligations can be reasonably
assured in the long termii.
PAA Good credit quality, with the number of risk factors only marginally higher than
those for loan facilities in the AA+ grade. Timely servicing of debt obligations
can be reasonably assured in the long term.
PAA- Reasonably good credit quality, with a tolerable number of risk factors, not at all
material in nature. Timely servicing of debt obligations can be reasonably
assured in the long term.
PA+ Adequate credit quality, with a few risk factors, though not highly material in
nature. Timely servicing of debt obligations can be reasonably assured in the
long term.
PA Adequate credit quality, with the number of risk factors marginally higher than
those for loan facilities in the A+ grade. Timely servicing of debt obligations
can be reasonably assured in the long term.
PA- Adequate credit quality, with a high number of risk factors, some of which may
turn out to be material in nature. Timely servicing of debt obligations can be
85
reasonably assured in the long term.
PB Inadequate credit quality, with a high number of risk factors, which may turn
out to be material in nature. Though the servicing of debt obligations may be
reasonably assured, the level of severity of materiality of the risk factors may
impair the servicing of debt obligations in the medium term.
PC Inadequate credit quality, with a very high number of risk factors, which may
turn out to be material in nature. Though the servicing of debt obligations in the
short term may be reasonably assured, the high level of severity of materiality of
the risk factors can impair the servicing of debt obligations in the medium or
long term.
PD+ Bad credit quality, with a very high number of risk factors, which are material in
nature. The materiality of these risk factors has led / can lead to default on the
servicing of debt obligations. However in case of default, the probability of
recovery is high.
PD Poor credit quality, with a very high number of risk factors, which are material
in nature. The materiality of these risk factors has led / can lead to default on
the servicing of debt obligations. However, the probability of recovery is
moderate.
PD- Extremely poor credit quality, with an extremely high number of risk factors,
which are highly material in nature. The materiality of these risk factors has led
/ can lead to default on the servicing of debt obligations and the probability of
recovery is also very low.
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6. ANNEXURES
87
ANNEXURE 1: SCALES FOR THE
INDUSTRY MODULE
1. Regulatory framework and 3. Cyclicality of the sector (‘C’)
government policies
Description Score
• Scale to be used for the scoring of
C > 6 (Low) 4
the main and each parameter.
3 < C < = 6 (Moderate) 2
• Final score for the main parameter
will be obtained as a mean of the C < = 3 (High) 0
scores for all sub-parameters.
EBIDTA margin
Very low 0
• Final score for the main parameter
will be obtained as a mean of the
Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)
scores for all sub-parameters.
IDBI benchmark for RoCE ‘12.5%’
Description Score
If RoCE is > = 12.5% 4
High score 4
9.38% < = RoCE < 12.5% 3
3
6.25% < = RoCE < 9.38% 2
Moderate score 2
0 < RoCE < 6.25% 1
1
RoCE < = 0% 0
Low score 0
Description Score
Description Score
Low volatility 4
Moderate volatility 2
High volatility 0
ANNEXURE 2: SCALES FOR THE
PROMOTER MODULE
1. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL
HEALTH OF PROMOTER
Average EBIDTA margin of the Average TDE of the industry ‘1.5’ times
industry ‘14.23’ %
If TDE is < = X times 4
If EBIDTA margin is > = X% 4
1.5 times X > = TDE > X times 3
75% of X < = EBIDTA margin < 3
2 times X > = TDE > 1.5 times 2
X%
X
50% of X < = EBIDTA margin < 2
2.5 times X > = TDE > 2 times 1
75% of X
X
0 < EBIDTA margin < 50% of X 1
TDE > 2.5 times X 0
EBIDTA margin < = 0% 0
NPM
Contingent Liabilities / Total Tangible Net
Average NPM of the industry ‘3.75’ % Worth
50% of X < = NPM < 75% of X 2 0.50 times > = coverage > 0.25 3
times
0 < NPM < 50% of X 1
0.75 times > = coverage > 0.50 2
NPM < = 0 0
times
Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)
1 times < = coverage > 0.75 1
IDBI benchmark for RoCE ‘12.5%’ times
RoCE < = 0 0
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Cash The score for this parameter will be
flow adequacy’ computed in the following manner:
1 times < = CF ICR < 1.3 times 1 • The rounded-off arithmetic mean
of the CF ICR and CF DSCR will
CF ICR < 1 times 0
constitute the score for CF
adequacy.
Net Operating Cash Flow to Debt Finally the score for this parameter will
Obligations Paid (CF DSCR) be obtained as a sum of the scores for
IDBI benchmark for CF DSCR ‘1.5’ Profitability, Solvency and Cash flow
times adequacy.
Moderate score 6
Low score 0
2. Group performance 1. Project management skills
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Non - • Adherence to time schedules of the
performing companies within the past and the ongoing projects
group’ and ‘Companies with a Description Score
negative net worth’ Successful implementation of 4
Description Score projects (without significant
overrun)
Does not exist 4
Successful implementation 2
Exists 0
with either cost or time
overrun
Description Score
• Composition of projects undertaken:
High score 8
This will capture experience of
7 developer in undertaking complex and
varied construction projects.
6
5 Description Score
1
• Finally the score for this parameter
Low score 0
will be obtained as a sum of the scores
for the above parameters.
2. Relevance of experience to project 3. Strategic initiatives in the past
Description Score
• Scale to be used for scoring ' Number
Project undertaken in an 4
projects in the city'.
industry which is a core line of
Description Score business for the promoter
group
More than one project 3
undertaken Project undertaken in an 2
industry which is a secondary
First project in the city 0
thrust area for the promoter
group
• Finally the score for this parameter Project undertaken in an 0
will be obtained as a sum of the industry which is different
scores for the above parameters. from the core line of business
Description Score
Moderate relevance of 3
experience to project On time 8
Delayed 4
Not paid 0
No such initiative 0
5 Description Score
Average conduct 4 Good quality 8
3 7
2 6
1 5
Poor conduct 0 Average quality 4
3
8. Past Project Quality record 2
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Quality 1
standard being followed.
Poor quality 0
Description Score
Average reputation 4
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Market 3
position’ parameter
2
No. of projects (NP) for Market Leader
1
‘X’
Poor reputation 0
If NP is > = X% 6
NP < = 0 0
Inadequate qualifications 0
3. Organisation structure
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Hands- • Scale to be used for scoring each sub -
on experience of key personnel’ parameter
Absent 0
High score 4
Moderate score 6 3
Moderate score 2
3
• Scale to be used for the final scoring 2
of the main parameter after scoring
1
each sub-parameter
Low score 0
Description Score
High score 8
6
6. Transactions with group companies
5
5. Diversion of funds
7 7
6 6
5 5
3 3
2 2
1 1
Description Score
Description Score
Other qualification 2
• Scale to be used for the final scoring
of the main parameter after scoring Qualification due to non - 0
each sub-parameter compliance with accounting
standards
• Scale to be used f or the final scoring
of the main parameter after scoring
each sub-parameter
Description Score
Description Score
3. Basis of selection
Description Score
Satisfactory (Enforceable, 4
• Scale to be used for the final scoring
with remote possibility of
of the main parameter after scoring
future litigation / conflict)
each sub-parameter
Tolerable (Enforceable, with 2
Description Score
moderate possibility of future
High score 12 litigation / conflict)
Unsatisfactory (Enforceable, 0
with high possibility of future
litigation / conflict)
Moderate score 6
Low score 0
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Balanced Description Score
contract’
High score 4
Description Score
3
Satisfactory (All significant 4
Moderate score 2
risks transferred / mitigated)
1
Tolerable (Few significant 2
risks transferred / mitigated) Low score 0
Description Score
No prior experience 0
• Scale to be used for scoring
‘Complexity of projects’
• Scale to be used for the final scoring
of the main parameter after scoring Description Score
Moderate score 4
Low score 0
• Scale to be used for the final scoring
of the main parameter after scoring
each sub-parameter
Description Score
Moderate relevance of 4
experience to project
Description Score
Moderately risk 3
Land completely available 4
3
Highly risky 0
Land Partially available 2
1
3. Location of the project
Land not available 0
Description Score
Favourable 6
2. Price/Rental Risk
Description Score
Description Score
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Pricing
No vulnerability 4 strategy’
Moderately vulnerable 2 Description Score
Highly vulnerable 0
Pricing strategy superior to 10
market
No vulnerability 4
Moderately vulnerable 2
Highly vulnerable 0
• Scale to be used for scoring 6
‘Promotional strategy’
2
Description Score
Low score 0
Promotional strategy in sync 4
with the segmentation and
targeting strategies 9. Systems for support facilities
8
ANNEXURE 5b: SCALES FOR
PROJECT RISK MODULE -Complexities
Description Score
2. Extent of incompletion
• Scale to be used for scoring Description Score
‘Feasibility Analysis’
Construction fully complete 8
Description Score (‘CFC’)
Positive result of the feasibil ity 4 75% < = Construction 6
analysis completed < CFC (i.e. < 25%
Any concern raised over the 2 incomplete)
feasibility 50% < = Construction 4
Negative result of the 0 completed < 75%
0.90 times the cost incurred in 5 • Scale to be used for the final scoring
another similar project < = C of the main parameter after scoring
< = 1.30 times the cost each sub-parameter
incurred in another similar Description Score
project
High score 10
C > 1.30 times the cost 0
incurred in another similar
project
Description Score
1. Clearance risk
Description Score
2. Quality
Low score 0
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘Design
as per seismic zones'
Description Score
4. Cost overrun
As per standard 4
Extent of cost overrun Score
Not as per standards 0
No overrun 8
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘ISO
Cost overrun 0
certification'
Description Score
5. Have cost overruns in the past been
Present 4
successfully funded?
Absent 0
Description Score
Fully funded 4
• Scale to be used for the final scoring
Partly funded 2
of the main parameter after scoring
each sub-parameter Not funded at all 0
6. Adherence to implementation 9. Infrastructure Availa bility
schedule
Description Score
Satisfactory 4
Neutral 2
Unsatisfactory 0
Description Score
No such contract 0
ANNEXURE 5D: SCALES FOR
PROJECT RISK – PRINCIPAL ANCHOR
Ratio > = 1 4
3. Comparison of projected
0.75 < = Ratio < 1 3 occupancy levels with the projected
0.50 < = Ratio < 0.75 2 Description Score
0.25 < = Ratio < 0.5 1 If Actual / Projected > = 1 4
0 < = Ratio < 0.25 0
0.80 < = Actual / Projected < 3
• Scale to be used for the final scoring 1
of the main param eter after scoring 0.60 < = Actual / Projected < 2
each sub-parameter 0.80
Description Score 0.40 < = Actual / Projected < 1
Moderate score 2
Normal certification / 1
Description Score
initiatives taken
Obtained 4 No certification / initiatives 0
Not obtained 0 taken
• Scale to be used f or the final scoring • Scale to be used for the final scoring
of the main parameter after scoring of the main parameter after scoring each
each sub-parameter sub-parameter
Description Score
Normal certification / 1
initiatives taken
No certification / initiatives 0
taken
ANNEXURE 6A: SCALES FOR 1.2 times < = CF DSCR < 1.3 3
THE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS times
MODULE – FUTURE
1.1 times < = CF DSCR < 1.2 2
PROJECTIONS (Base case)
times
Description Score
Description Score
2
5
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘RoCE’ 3. Capitalisation / Solvency
6
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘RoCE’ 4. Cash flow adequacy
5
This scale is to be used if the Projected RoCE
> 0%
6
This scale is to be used if the Projected RoCE
< 0% i.e. there is a projected loss
3
• Scale to be used for scoring ‘CF
DSCR (annual)’
Description Score
Description Score
4
ANNEXURE 6C: SCALES FOR THE ‘X’ % = Average NPM of the industry
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS MODULE – PAST
If NPM is > = X % 4
FINANCIAL
75% of X < = NPM < X% 3
1. Growth in revenues/Gross profit/
NOCF 50% of X < = NPM < 75% of X 2
1
3. Capitalisation / Solvency
‘1.5’ times = IDBI benchmark for TDE • Scale to be used for scoring ‘CF ICR’
2 times X > = TDE > 1.5 times 6 1.7 times < = CF ICR < 2 times 3
X
1.3 times < = CF ICR < 1.7 2
2.5 times X > = TDE > 2 times 3 times
X
1 times < = CF ICR < 1.3 times 1
TDE > 2.5 times X 0
CF ICR < 1 times 0
0.50 times > = coverage > 0.25 3 If CF DSCR is > 1.5 times 12
times
1.45 times < = CF ICR < = 1.5 10
0.75 times > = coverage > 0.50 2 times
times
1.4 times < = CF ICR < 1.45 9
1 times < = coverage > 0.75 1 times
times
1.35 times < = CF ICR < 1.4 8
Coverage > 1 times 0 times
2
1.05 times < = CF ICR < 1.1 2 • Scale to be used for scoring ‘Average
times Payables Days’
CR < = 0 0
Description Score
3
ANNEXURE A: ANALYTICAL FORMAT FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS:
P&L, BALANCE SHEET, CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Gross Sales
Trading Sales
Total Gross Sales
Less: Excise Duty
Net Sales
Other Operating Income
Total Income
EBIDTA
Interest & Finance charges
Depreciation
Operating Profit
Other Income (Non-operating)
Extra Ordinary Income
Extra Ordinary Expenses
PBT
Tax
Deferred Tax Liability/ (Asset)
PAT
Prior period Income/ (Expenses)
Dividend - Equity (incl. tax)
Dividend - Pref. Sh. (incl. tax)
Liabilities
Equity Share Capital
Preference Share Capital (treated as equity)
Reserves & Surplus (Excl. revaluation reserve)
Share Premium
General Reserve
Profit & Loss A/c (credit balance)
Others
Sub Total
Less: Losses brought forward
Less: Intangibles/ Misc. exp./ DRE not w/off
Less: Deferred Tax Assets (net)
Sub Total (Net Reserve & Surplus)
Tangible Net Worth
Total Loans
Current Liabilities
Bank borrowings for working capital
Sundry Creditors/ Bills Payables/ Acceptances
Other current liabilities
Proposed dividend - Equity
Proposed dividend - Pref. Sh.
Other Provisions
Total current liabilities
Total Liabilities
Assets
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Revaluation Reserve
Less: Accumulated Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital Work in progress
Sub Total
Total Assets
Difference
Continget Liabilities
(incl. unprovided gratuity, leave etc., if any)
Capital Employed
Check