The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into two very broad

categories: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the
characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value. Technical analysis takes a completely different
approach; it doesn't care one bit about the "value" of a company or a commodity. Technicians (sometimes
called chartists) are only interested in the price movements in the market.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just studies supply and demand in
a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In other words,
technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as
opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give
you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.

In this tutorial, we'll introduce you to the subject of technical analysis. It's a broad topic, so we'll just cover
the basics, providing you with the foundation you'll need to understand more advanced concepts down the
road. What Is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated by market
activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic
value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also many different types of
technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns, others use technical indicators and oscillators, and most use
some combination of the two. In any case, technical analysts' exclusive use of historical price and volume
data is what separates them from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysts, technical
analysts don't care whether a stock is undervalued - the only thing that matters is a security's past trading
data and what information this data can provide about where the security might move in the future.

The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:

1. The market discounts everything.

2. Price moves in trends.
3. History tends to repeat itself.

1. The Market Discounts Everything

A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental
factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, a stock's price reflects
everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental factors. Technical analysts believe
that the company's fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all
priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the
analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a
particular stock in the market.

2. Price Moves in Trends

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after a trend has been
established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be
against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption.

3. History Tends To Repeat Itself

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price
movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words,
market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical
analysis uses chart patterns to analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these
charts have been used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate
patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.

Not Just for Stocks

Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading data. This includes stocks, futures and
commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc. In this tutorial, we'll usually analyze stocks in our examples,
but keep in mind that these concepts can be applied to any type of security. In fact, technical analysis is
more frequently associated with commodities and forex, where the participants are predominantly traders.

Now that you understand the philosophy behind technical analysis, we'll get into explaining how it really
works. One of the best ways to understand what technical analysis is (and is not) is to compare it to
fundamental analysis. We'll do this in the next section.

For further reading, check out Defining Active Trading, Day Trading Strategies For Beginners and What Can
Investors Learn From Traders?.
Charts vs. Financial Statements
At the most basic level, a technical analyst approaches a security from the charts, while a fundamental
analyst starts with the financial statements. (For further reading, see Introduction To Fundamental Analysis
and Advanced Financial Statement Analysis.)

By looking at the balance sheet, cash flow statement and income statement, a fundamental analyst tries to
determine a company's value. In financial terms, an analyst attempts to measure a company's intrinsic
value. In this approach, investment decisions are fairly easy to make - if the price of a stock trades below its
intrinsic value, it's a good investment. Although this is an oversimplification (fundamental analysis goes
beyond just the financial statements) for the purposes of this tutorial, this simple tenet holds true.

Technical traders, on the other hand, believe there is no reason to analyze a company's fundamentals
because these are all accounted for in the stock's price. Technicians believe that all the information they
need about a stock can be found in its charts.

Time Horizon
Fundamental analysis takes a relatively long-term approach to analyzing the market compared to technical
analysis. While technical analysis can be used on a timeframe of weeks, days or even minutes, fundamental
analysis often looks at data over a number of years.

The different timeframes that these two approaches use is a result of the nature of the investing style to
which they each adhere. It can take a long time for a company's value to be reflected in the market, so when
a fundamental analyst estimates intrinsic value, a gain is not realized until the stock's market price rises to
its "correct" value. This type of investing is called value investing and assumes that the short-term market is
wrong, but that the price of a particular stock will correct itself over the long run. This "long run" can
represent a timeframe of as long as several years, in some cases. (For more insight, read Warren Buffett:
How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

Furthermore, the numbers that a fundamentalist analyzes are only released over long periods of time.
Financial statements are filed quarterly and changes in earnings per share don't emerge on a daily basis like
price and volume information. Also remember that fundamentals are the actual characteristics of a business.
New management can't implement sweeping changes overnight and it takes time to create new products,
marketing campaigns, supply chains, etc. Part of the reason that fundamental analysts use a long-term
timeframe, therefore, is because the data they use to analyze a stock is generated much more slowly than
the price and volume data used by technical analysts.
Trading Versus Investing
Not only is technical analysis more short term in nature that fundamental analysis, but the goals of a
purchase (or sale) of a stock are usually different for each approach. In general, technical analysis is used
for a trade, whereas fundamental analysis is used to make an investment. Investors buy assets they believe
can increase in value, while traders buy assets they believe they can sell to somebody else at a greater
price. The line between a trade and an investment can be blurry, but it does characterize a difference
between the two schools.

The Critics
Some critics see technical analysis as a form of black magic. Don't be surprised to see them question the
validity of the discipline to the point where they mock its supporters. In fact, technical analysis has only
recently begun to enjoy some mainstream credibility. While most analysts on Wall Street focus on the
fundamental side, just about any major brokerage now employs technical analysts as well.

Much of the criticism of technical analysis has its roots in academic theory - specifically the efficient market
hypothesis (EMH). This theory says that the market's price is always the correct one - any past trading
information is already reflected in the price of the stock and, therefore, any analysis to find undervalued
securities is useless.

There are three versions of EMH. In the first, called weak form efficiency, all past price information is
already included in the current price. According to weak form efficiency, technical analysis can't
predict future movements because all past information has already been accounted for and,
therefore, analyzing the stock's past price movements will provide no insight into its future movements. In
the second, semi-strong form efficiency, fundamental analysis is also claimed to be of little use in finding
investment opportunities. The third is strong form efficiency, which states that all information in the market is
accounted for in a stock's price and neither technical nor fundamental analysis can provide investors with an
edge. The vast majority of academics believe in at least the weak version of EMH, therefore, from their point
of view, if technical analysis works, market efficiency will be called into question. (For more insight, read
What Is Market Efficiency? and Working Through The Efficient Market Hypothesis.)

There is no right answer as to who is correct. There are arguments to be made on both sides and,
therefore, it's up to you to do the homework and determine your own philosophy.

The Importance of Support and Resistance

Support and resistance analysis is an important part of trends because it can be used to make trading
decisions and identify when a trend is reversing. For example, if a trader identifies an important level of
resistance that has been tested several times but never broken, he or she may decide to take profits as the
security moves toward this point because it is unlikely that it will move past this level.

Support and resistance levels both test and confirm trends and need to be monitored by anyone who uses
technical analysis. As long as the price of the share remains between these levels of support and resistance,
the trend is likely to continue. It is important to note, however, that a break beyond a level of support or
resistance does not always have to be a reversal. For example, if prices moved above the resistance levels
of an upward trending channel, the trend has accelerated, not reversed. This means that the price
appreciation is expected to be faster than it was in the channel.

Being aware of these important support and resistance points should affect the way that you trade a stock.
Traders should avoid placing orders at these major points, as the area around them is usually marked by a
lot of volatility. If you feel confident about making a trade near a support or resistance level, it is important
that you follow this simple rule: do not place orders directly at the support or resistance level. This is
because in many cases, the price never actually reaches the whole number, but flirts with it instead. So if
you're bullish on a stock that is moving toward an important support level, do not place the trade at the
support level. Instead, place it above the support level, but within a few points. On the other hand, if you are
placing stops or short selling, set up your trade price at or below the level of support.
• is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated by market activity. It is
based on three assumptions: 1) the market discounts everything, 2) price moves in trends and 3)
history tends to repeat itself.
• Technicians believe that all the information they need about a stock can be found in its charts.
• Technical traders take a short-term approach to analyzing the market.
• Criticism of technical analysis stems from the efficient market hypothesis, which states that the
market price is always the correct one, making any historical analysis useless.
• One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of a trend, which is the general
direction that a security is headed. There are three types of trends: uptrends, downtrends and
sideways/horizontal trends.
• A trendline is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent the trend in the
market or a stock.
• A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trendlines that act as strong areas of
support and resistance.
• Support is the price level through which a stock or market seldom falls. Resistance is the price level
that a stock or market seldom surpasses.
• Volume is the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given period of time, usually a day.
The higher the volume, the more active the security.
• A chart is a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time frame.
• The time scale refers to the range of dates at the bottom of the chart, which can vary from decades
to seconds. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly
and annually.
• The price scale is on the right-hand side of the chart. It shows a stock's current price and compares
it to past data points. It can be either linear or logarithmic.
• There are four main types of charts used by investors and traders: line charts, bar charts,
candlestick charts and point and figure charts.
• A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a stock chart that creates a trading signal, or a sign of
future price movements. There are two types: reversal and continuation.
• A head and shoulders pattern is reversal pattern that signals a security is likely to move against its
previous trend.
• A cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern in which the upward trend has paused but
will continue in an upward direction once the pattern is confirmed.
• Double tops and double bottoms are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the
trend is about to reverse. The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance
levels twice and is unable to break through.
• A triangle is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trendlines along a price range that gets
narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include
ascending and descending triangles.
• Flags and pennants are short-term continuation patterns that are formed when there is a sharp
price movement followed by a sideways price movement.
• The wedge chart pattern can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. It is similar to a
symmetrical triangle except that the wedge pattern slants in an upward or downward direction.
• A gap in a chart is an empty space between a trading period and the following trading period. This
occurs when there is a large difference in prices between two sequential trading periods.
• Triple tops and triple bottoms are reversal patterns that are formed when the price movement tests
a level of support or resistance three times and is unable to break through, signaling a trend
reversal.
 • A rounding bottom (or saucer bottom) is a long-term reversal pattern that signals a shift from a
downward trend to an upward trend.
• A moving average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. There are three
types: simple, linear and exponential.
• Moving averages help technical traders smooth out some of the noise that is found in day-to-day
price movements, giving traders a clearer view of the price trend.
• Indicators are calculations based on the price and the volume of a security that measure such
things as money flow, trends, volatility and momentum. There are two types: leading and lagging.
• The accumulation/distribution line is a volume indicator that attempts to measure the ratio of buying
to selling of a security.
• The average directional index (ADX) is a trend indicator that is used to measure the strength of a
current trend.
• The Aroon indicator is a trending indicator used to measure whether a security is in an uptrend or
downtrend and the magnitude of that trend.
• The Aroon oscillator plots the difference between the Aroon up and down lines by subtracting the
two lines.
• The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is comprised of two exponential moving
averages, which help to measure a security's momentum.
• The relative strength index (RSI) helps to signal overbought and oversold conditions in a security.
• The on-balance volume (OBV) indicator is one of the most well-known technical indicators that
reflects movements in volume.
• The stochastic oscillator compares a security's closing price to its price range over a given time
period.

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Reference for Business

Encyclopedia of Business, 2nd ed.
Reference for Business » Encyclopedia of Business, 2nd ed. » Str-The » Technical Analysis

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Technical analysis is research into the supply and demand of investments based
on historic trade information, in terms of both price and volume. Technical
analysts, often called chartists, believe that it is possible to detect the onset of a
movement in stock or market value from one equilibrium condition to another.
To do this, they use charts and computer programs of past stock, commodity, and
market movements to identify trends that they believe will predict pricing
movements. Chartists are not concerned about why conditions are changing, they
only want to identify the beginning of the change to take advantage of short- and
intermediate-term gains. While most of these analysts predict short and
intermediate pricing trends, some also forecast long-term market cycles based on
their data.

Like many professionals in the security industry, chartists believe that the value
of the market is determined by supply and demand for stocks. Furthermore, like
others, chartists think that the supply and demand is influenced by many factors,
not always rational, which are weighed continuously and subjectively by the
market. Technical analysis differs from other schools of security forecasting,
however, in the timing of stock price changes. Chartists believe that stocks move
in trends lasting over long periods and that astute investors can profit from these
trends if they act when the trends first begin. This supposition is based on two
beliefs. First, chartists contend that information about stocks leaks into the
market over extended periods. Stock prices change gradually as information
moves from industry insiders to analysts and finally to investors. Second,
chartists believe that a further time lag occurs because investors do not
unanimously agree about the validity of the information or its impact upon the
security in question. The gradual nature of price changes gives investors time to
act to take advantage of a trend.

Thus, it is the job of the technical analyst to develop a system that can detect the
beginning of a movement from one equilibrium price to a new higher or lower
price. It must be underscored that chartists are overwhelmingly concerned with
detecting the onset of a change in the supply and demand of a stock (or other
investment) so that they can benefit from the price changes associated with
finding a new equilibrium.

HISTORY AND BACKGROUND

Technical analysis is, perhaps, the oldest form of security analysis. It is believed
that the first technical analysis occurred in 17th century Japan, where analysts
used charts to plot price changes in rice. Indeed, many present-day Japanese
analysts still rely on technical analysis to forecast prices in their stock exchange,
which is the second largest in the world. In the United States, technical analysis
has been used for more than 100 years. This form of analysis was especially
helpful at the turn of the century when financial statements were not
commonly available to investors.

In recent years, the ever-increasing use of personal computers has led to

substantial growth in technical analysis, and numerous software packages have
been developed to meet these increased needs. Thus, technical analysis can be
applied not only to stocks and their markets but also to bonds, commodities,
fixed-income markets, industries within markets, and currencies. Moreover, one
of the most popular current applications of technical analysis is for futures
derivatives.

TRADING RULES

Technical analysts rely on many rules, often using several at once when deciding
whether to buy, sell, or do nothing with an investment. Some of the best-known
rules are contrary opinion rules, rules that follow sophisticated investors, and
rules that follow the market prices and volume. As with other types of forecasting,
however, these rules can be interpreted in a variety of ways, leading to a variety of
forecasts using the same information.

The first type, contrary opinion rules, maintains that the majority of investors are
incorrect about stock decisions most of the time, but especially at market highs
and lows. Thus, when the majority of investors are very bearish, a chartist using
this rule would say that it is a good time to buy; conversely, when the majority of
investors are bullish, the contrary opinion rule would dictate that selling is the
best course of action. A specific example of a contrary rule is the odd-lot theory.
In this theory, analysts watch transactions involving amounts less than a round
lot (usually 100 shares) called an odd lot. Because this theory contends that small
investors are usually wrong in forecasting pricing peaks and troughs, analysts
recommend doing the opposite of those actions taken by people purchasing odd
lots.

In addition to contrary rules, some chartists follow the activities of investors that
they consider smart and savvy. An indicator of such activities is Barron's
confidence index, which is a bond index comparing Barron's average yield on ten
high-grade corporate bonds to the average yield of 40 average bonds on the Dow
Jones. This comparison results in a ratio that should never exceed 100 because
the 10 high-grade bonds on the numerator should always a have lower average
yield than the average bonds on the denominator. In bullish markets, investors
tend to take increased risks and buy lower-quality bonds to reap the higher
yields; doing this eventually decreases the low-quality yields and, thus, the ratio
increases. Conversely, when investors are bearish, they buy safer, high-quality
bonds forcing their yield still lower, and the ratio decreases. While this indicator
has merit, it can give analysts false information because it is solely based on the
demand for bonds and in no way accounts for fluctuations in their supply. If the
bond supply suddenly changes, their subsequent yields will also change with little
regard to investor preference.

In addition to using some of the above rules, chartists often take into account
stock prices and trading volume when making their purchasing decisions. The
Dow theory asserts that stock prices move in three different fashions: (1) major,
longer-term trends; (2) intermediate trends; and (3) short-run movements.
When analyzing stock prices, chartists try to discern which way the long-term
pricing trends are heading, realizing that there will be short-lived trends in the
opposite direction. In addition to having an interest in stock price changes,
chartists are also interested in stocks' trading volumes relative to their normal
trading volumes. While a change in stock price indicates the net effect of trading
activity, it gives no information on how widespread the public interest is about
the stock. Thus, if a stock price increases in an environment of heavy trading and
then has a setback in lighter trading, chartists would probably still view it as a
bullish stock, thinking that only a few investors were selling to make a profit.
Technical analysts also use the breadth of market measure to influence their
decisions. This is a measure that compares the number of stocks that have
increased in price, the number that have decreased, and the number that have
remained stable. Similarly, the advance-decline series is an aggregated
examination of the net stocks gaining and declining each day.

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES

As stated earlier, technical analysts make decisions by examining market and

security trends with little regard to the cause of those trends. Conversely,
fundamental analysts make their decisions by relying on accurate information
about companies and markets before it becomes available to the general public.
Because technical analysts do not believe that it is possible to receive and process
this information quickly enough, many of the advantages relating to technical
analysis correspond directly with the disadvantages of fundamental analysis.

For example, to project risks and future returns, fundamental analysts depend
heavily on financial statements for information on a company's or industry's past
performance. Technical analysts believe that there are inherent shortcomings in
relying on these statements. First, the incredible variety of accounting methods
makes it difficult to compare firms within the same industry and almost
impossible to compare those in different industries. Second, financial statements
do not contain all of the information that investors need to make sound decisions,
such as information on sales of specific products or on the firm's customers.
Finally, financial statements do not include any psychological aspects, such as
goodwill, that influence stock prices. By observing patterns and information
derived by the stock market itself, technical analysts avoid the trappings that
often snare fundamental analysts.

In an efficient market, prices quickly and fully reflect all available information.
Therefore, technical analysis can work only if security markets are in some way
inefficient. Numerous studies testing the efficacy of simple technical trading rules
have failed to provide compelling evidence of superiority over a simple buy-and-
hold strategy. More recent studies suggest, however, that small benefits can be
gleaned from more complex technical trading rules. Yet, past pricing patterns are
not always repeated in the future. A forecasting technique can work for a time but
later miss a major market turn. Another disadvantage of technical analysis is that
pricing forecasts can be self-fulfilling prophesies. Thus, if a stock price is
predicted to increase when it passes a given price, it sometimes will do so purely
because people will buy the stock at the threshold price, expecting it to continue
to increase. In this situation, the stock price typically returns to its real
equilibrium value at a later time. A final problem is that there is a great deal of
subjective judgment involved in making predictions. Two analysts can look at the
same pricing history and arrive at very different pricing projections.

Technical analysis is a method of forecasting security prices by examining past

price movements and other observable indicators of market activity. This
technique rejects the more conventional mode of fundamental valuation based on
financial statements. Technical analysis also requires a lack of efficiency in the
pricing process although many studies indicate that major security markets are
highly, if not perfectly, efficient.

[ Kathryn Snavely ,

updated by Paul Bolster ]

FURTHER READING:

Argenti, Paul A. The Portable MBA Desk Reference. New York: Wiley, 1994.

DeMark, Thomas R. The New Science of Technical Analysis. New York: Wiley,
1994.

Downes, John, and Jordan Elliot Goodman. Barron's Finance and Investment
Handbook. 2nd ed. New York: Barron's, 1987.

Fabozzi, Frank J. Investment Management. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ:
Prentice-Hall, 1999.
Levine, Sumner N., ed. Financial Analyst's Handbook. 2nd ed. Homewood, IL:
Dow Jones-Irwin, 1988.

Reilly, Frank K., and Keith Brown. Investment Analysis and Portfolio
Management. 5th ed. Fort Worth, TX: Dryden Press, 1997.

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User Contributions:

1
neha

Mar 26, 2008 @ 1:01 am

i hav to make a project on fundamental and technical analysis of shares of 4
companies.can you mail be how to go about it or provide some direction in this
regard

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