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29th April, 10
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Result Update
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` MSK update: For MSK project the management has guided revenues of
Rs 5.25 billions and Rs 10 billions for FY11E and FY12E respectively (Rs
4.4bn in FY10). The management has also guided the MSK will maintain
its PAT margins of ~8%. Presently, we have not considered the MSK
numbers into our projections and will wait for more clarity on the same.
` The company is looking to expand its footprints in Middle East, South
America and North Africa.
` The capex for FY11E is Rs 4000 millions
` The company has a cash balance of Rs 17 billion as on 31st March, 2010.
` The company had declared the annual dividend of Rs 2 per share
translating into 40% dividend.
` During the full year FY10 the company has raised funds worth of USD
250 mn by way of FCCBs (USD 150 mn) and QIP (USD 100mn)
` We have introduced FY12E numbers and we have estimated the
revenues of Rs 84600 millions and net profit of Rs 6669.5 millions. We
have assumed pipes volume of 1.2mtpa and plates volume of 0.7mtpa.
Sales Volume
Sales Volume (in mt) Q4 FY10 Q4 FY09 % y-o-y FY10 FY09 % y-o-y
Total Pipes 205232 190395 7.8 815550 695063 17.3
Plates - External 83174 8138 922.0 308952 42073 634.3
Plates - Internal 15771 53961 -70.8 78271 112043 -30.1
Total Plates 98945 62099 59.3 387223 154116 151.3
Source: Company, KJMC Research
Particulars Q4 FY10 Q4 FY09 yoy (%) Q3 FY10 qoq (%) FY10 FY09 yoy (%)
Net Sales 14006.1 18318.4 -23.5 15203.8 -7.9 66139.4 58783.1 12.5
Expenditure 11451.9 16709.9 -31.5 12624.9 -9.3 55040.9 52436.7 5.0
Raw Materials Consumption 7892.3 13537.6 -41.7 8418.6 -6.3 38075.9 43463.2 -12.4
Purchase of traded goods 638.7 2113.7 -69.8 1328.2 -51.9 2900.9 2763.7 0.0
(Incr) / Decr in stock 626.4 -823.6 -176.1 536.0 16.9 3951.6 -4113.0 -196.1
Staff Cost 392.2 277.4 41.4 347.8 12.8 1416.5 1152.9 22.9
Other Expenditure 1902.3 1604.8 18.5 1994.3 -4.6 8696.0 9169.9 -5.2
Reported EBIDTA 2554.2 1608.5 58.8 2578.9 -1.0 11098.5 6346.4 74.9
Adjusted EBIDTA 2554.2 2317.5 10.2 1986.9 28.5 9838.5 8015.9 22.7
Reported EBITDA (%) 18.2 8.8 950bps 17.0 130bps 16.8 10.8 600bps
Adj. EBITDA (%) 18.2 12.7 560bps 13.1 520bps 14.9 13.6 120bps
Depreciation 367.1 344.5 6.6 374.4 -1.9 1479.2 1254.2 17.9
EBIT 2187.1 1264.0 73.0 2204.5 -0.8 9619.3 5092.2 88.9
Interest 241.2 501.3 -51.9 323.4 -25.4 1661.7 1735.0 -4.2
Other Income 13.4 25.7 -47.9 42.5 -68.5 127.7 178.8 -28.6
PBT 1959.3 788.4 148.5 1923.6 1.9 8085.3 3536.0 128.7
Tax 618.5 270.4 128.7 647.9 -4.5 2683.3 1200.4 123.5
Reported PAT 1340.8 518.0 158.8 1275.7 5.1 5402.0 2335.6 131.3
Adjusted PAT 1340.8 985.9 36.0 885.0 51.5 4570.4 3437.5 33.0
Equity Capital 1019.5 932.5 9.3 1019.5 0.0 1021.6 932.5 9.6
Reported EPS 6.6 2.8 136.7 6.3 5.1 26.4 12.5 111.1
Valuations
With the stability and firmness in crude oil prices above USD 80 per barrel,
the global E&P capex picks up and we expect the order books of pipes
companies to grow further. Welspun with its wider product mix, strong
order book, major approval from oil and gas, niche position globally in the
high pressure oil and gas segment is in a position to capitalize the same.
With the recent acquisition of MSK projects the Welspun has forayed into
infrastructure space which would be earnings accretive.
At CMP of Rs 266 the stock is trading at a P/E of 9.5x and 8.2x of its FY11E
and FY12E earnings respectively. We continue maintain our “Buy”
recommendation on the stock with 12‐15 months with a price target of Rs
350 based on 12x P/E of its FY12E FDEPS translating into potential upside of
31.6% from CMP.
Ratios
Recommendation Parameters
Expected returns in absolute terms over a one‐year period
Buy ‐ appreciate more than 20% over a 12‐ month period
Accumulate ‐ appreciate 10 %to 20% over a 12‐month period
Hold / Neutral ‐ appreciate up to 10% over a 12‐ month period
Reduce ‐ depreciate up to 10% over a 12‐ month period
Sell ‐ depreciate more than 10% over a 12‐ month period
Disclaimer :
This publication has been prepared from information available on public domain and doses not constitute a solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. The information
contained therein has been obtained from source believed to be reliable to the best of our knowledge. KJMC Capital Market Services Ltd. dose not bear any responsibility for the
authentication of the information contained in the reports and consequently, is not liable for any decisions taken based on the same. Further KJMC only provides information
updates and analysis. All option for buying and selling are available to investors when they are registered clients of KJMC Capital Market Services Ltd. As per SEBI
requirements it is stated that, KJMC Capital Market Services Ltd. , and/or individuals thereof may have positions in securities referred herein and may make purchases or sale
thereof while this report is in circulation
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