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StilHOT
❑ Conditional Probability p(M & N) = pM pN
▪ Dependent Events: Events M and N
are dependent events if the Demonstration: Ans. 7/30
occurrence or nonoccurrence of one One bag contains 4 green balls and 2
of them affects the probability of the black balls while the second bag
occurrence of the other. contains 3 yellow balls and 7 white
balls. What is the probability of
p(M & N) = pM pN/M
obtaining a black ball in the first bag
where pN/M is the probability of event and a white ball in the second?
N given that M has occurred.
❑ Mathematical Expectation
Demonstration: Ans. 3/124 ME is the product of the probability
An Algebra class consists of 14 CE, 10
of winning and the corresponding
ECE, and 8 ME students. The teacher
expected amount to be won.
shuffles their class cards. What is the
probability that the first three drawn Demonstration: Ans. P120
class cards are ECE students? In a gambling game, a man is paid P360
if he draws a jack or a queen and P420
▪ Independent Events: Events M and N if he draws an ace or a king from a
are independent if the occurrence or standard deck of 52 cards. If he draw
nonoccurrence of one of them does any other card, he loses. How much
not affect the probability of the should he pay to play if the game is fair?
occurrence of the other.
StilHOT
❑ Probability in Repeated Trials ➢ The central problem of a binomial
This is also known as the binomial experiment is to find the probability
probability. of x successes in n trials.
p(h)= nCm(f)n-m(s)m ❑ Geometric Distribution
p(h) = the probability that an event A geometric distribution is a discrete
happens(succeeds) exactly m times. probability distribution of a random
nCm = the number of combinations that variable x that satisfies the following
that the event happens exactly m times. conditions:
f= the probability of failure of a single ➢ A trial is repeated until a success
event occurs
s= the probability of success of a single ➢ The repeated trials are
event independent of each other
Features of a Binomial Experiment ➢ The probability of success s is
➢ There are fixed number of trials. constant for each trial.
➢ The n trials are independent and The probability that the first
repeated under identical conditions. success will occur on trial number
➢ Each trial has only two outcomes: x is
success(s) and failure(f) p(s=x)= (1-s)x-1s
➢ For each individual trial, the
probability of success is the same.
The probability that the kth ALGEBRA 3.2 Statistics
success will occur on trial number ❑ The median of a set of numbers is
x is the middle number when these
p(x)= (x-1)C(k-1)(1-s)x-ksk numbers are arranged in numerical
order. If the number of entries is even,
the median is the average of the two
Demonstration: Ans. 45/512 middle entries.
In a multiple choice-type questions with
four choices, you attempt to answer 5 ❑ The mode of a given distribution is
questions by pure guessing. What is the the entry ( or entries) that occurs most
probability of getting exactly 3 correct frequently. The mode maybe unimodal,
answers? bimodal, …multimodal.
Demonstration: Ans. 1/16; 15/128 ❑ The mean of the entries is the average
Find the probability that a person of all entries.
flipping a coin gets (a) the first head on σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥
the fourth flip; (b) the third head on the 𝜇=
𝑛
seventh flip.
❑ Range is the difference between the
p= T T T H
largest and the smallest values of the
T T H T T H H set.
p=
p =6C2(1-1/2)7-3(1/2)3
6C2 StilHOT
❑ The average of the squared deviation ❑ Normal Distribution:
from the mean is called variance, V. This is the most important continuous
σ𝑛 2 probability distribution in the entire
𝑖=1 𝑥−𝜇
𝜎2 = field of statistics.
𝑛
❑ The standard deviation , is the The density function of the random
square root of the variance. variable X, with mean and variance
2, is
= V 1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
−
❑ The relative variability 𝛚 is defined 𝑛 𝑥; 𝜇, 𝜎 = 𝑒 2 𝜎 ,
2𝜋 𝜎
as the ratio of the standard deviation −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
and the mean.
𝜎
ω=
𝜇
❑ The Z-score is the measure of the
position that takes into account both
the center and the dispersion of the x
distribution.
𝑥−𝜇
𝑍= 1
𝜎 2
❑ Quartiles
Each of the three values of the x
1 2
random variable that divide the
population into four groups. Normal curves with 1<2 and 1=2
StilHOT
StilHOT
1
CALTECH:
=1 Q(-2)+Q(2) = 2Q(2)
2
A=0.9545
x
z 1 = 2
-2 =0 2 Normal curves with 1=2 and 1<2
CALTECH: 1
Q(-1)+Q(1) = 2Q(1) 2
=1
A=0.6827 x
x 1 2
-1 =0 1
Normal curves with 1<2 and 1<2
❑ Areas Under the Normal Curve:
CALTECH:
A=2[Q(0.6745)
=1
A=0.50
x1 x2 x
x 𝑥2
-0.6745 0.6745 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
1 −
𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 < 𝑥2 = න 𝑒 2 𝜎 𝑑𝑥
2𝜋 𝜎
𝑥1
Since Z(the Z-score) = (X-)/, and
whenever X assumes a value x, the =1
corresponding value of z is given by
𝑥−𝜇 x z
𝑧= x1 x2 z 1 z2 0
𝜎
𝑥 = 𝜎𝑧 + 𝜇 𝑑𝑥 = 𝜎𝑑𝑧 ❑ Exponential Distribution:
𝑧2 The density function of the exponential
𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 < 𝑥2 =
1
න
1
− 𝑧2
𝑒 2 (𝜎𝑑𝑧)
distribution is given by f(x)=𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥
2𝜋 𝜎 1
𝑧1 Where 𝜆 =
𝛽
𝑧2 and 𝛽 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛
1 1
− 𝑧2
𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 < 𝑥2 = න 𝑒 2 𝑑𝑧 failures and 𝜆 may be interpreted as the
2𝜋
𝑧1 mean number of events per unit time.
𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 < 𝑥2 = The probability that the time to failure T
is exceeded is:
𝑧2 ∞
𝑃 𝑥 > 𝑇 = න 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 𝑑𝑥
න 𝑛 𝑧; 0,1 = 𝑃(𝑧1 < 𝑍 < 𝑧2 ) 𝑇
∞
𝑧1
𝑃 𝑥 > 𝑇 = − න 𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 (−𝜆𝑑𝑥)
Where Z is seen to be a normal random 𝑇
−𝜆𝑥 ∞
variable with mean zero and variance 1 𝑃 𝑥 > 𝑇 = − 𝑒 𝑇
and is called standard normal distribution.
StilHOT
This probability distribution is closely
𝑃 𝑥 > 𝑇 = − 𝑒 −𝜆∞ − 𝑒 −𝜆𝑇
related to the Poisson probability
𝑃 𝑥 > 𝑇 = − 0 − 𝑒 −𝜆𝑇 distribution.
𝑇 In exponential probability distribution,
−
𝑃 𝑥>𝑇 =𝑒 𝛽 we deal with the lapse of time between
any two successive occurrences. For
instance, we can find the probability that
𝜎𝑛 = 𝜎/ 𝑁 the next customer in the bank will not
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣. 𝑖𝑓 𝑎 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 arrive for the next 10 minutes.
𝑁 is taken.
Demonstration
Suppose that the amount of time a
passenger spends in paying a terminal
fee is exponentially distributed with a
mean of 20 seconds. What is the
probability that a passenger will spend
more than 25 seconds? Ans. 0.2865
P(x ≥ a) = e-λa
P(x a) = 1-e-λa
P(ax b) = e-λa-e-b
StilHOT
❑ Poisson’s Distribution: Bxe-B/x! The following three conditions must be
is the average/mean value satisfied to apply Poisson probability
of the distribution distribution:
StilHOT
3.3 Problems for Solutions: Problem 4: Two cards are drawn in
Problem 1: Compute the value of the succession from a deck without
variance of the following sets of replacement. What is the probability
numbers: 13.40, 10.25, 12.65, 11.28, and that both cards are greater than 2 but
15.22. less than 8?
Problem 2: If a letter is chosen at Ans. 95/663
random from the English alphabet, find Problem 5: According to a study
the probability that the letter conducted by a certain company, the
(2.1) is a vowel exclusive of y. probable location of personal computers
(2.2) is listed somewhere ahead of letter (PC) in the home is as follows:
j. Adult bedroom: 0.03 Office or den: 0.40
(2.3) is listed somewhere after letter g. Child bedroom: 0.15 Other rooms: 0.28
Ans. 5/26 ; 9/26; 19/26 Other bedroom: 0.14
Problem 3: If each coded item in a
catalogue begins with 3 distinct letters (5.1) What is the probability that a PC is
followed by 4 distinct non-zero digits, in a bedroom?
find the probability of randomly (5.2) What is the probability that it is not
selecting one of these coded items with in the bedroom?
the first letter a vowel and the last digit (5.3) Suppose a household is selected at
even. random from households with a PC: in
Ans. 10/117 what room would you expect to find a
PC? Ans. 8/25; 0.68; office or den
Problem 6: A random sample of 200 Psychology, 7 studied history but neither
adults are classified below by sex and mathematics nor psychology, 10 studied
their level of education attained. all three subjects, and 8 did not take any
Education Male Female of the three. If a student is selected at
Elementary 38 45 random, find the probability that
Secondary 28 50 (7.1) a person enrolled in psychology takes
College 22 17 all three subjects;
(7.2) a person not taking psychology is
If a person is picked at random from this taking both history and mathematics.
group, find the probability that Ans. 5/34; 3/8
(6.1) the person is a male, given that the Problem 8: The probability that a married
person has a secondary education. man watches a certain television show is
(6.2) the person does not have a college 0.4 and the probability that a married
degree, given that the person is a woman watches the show is 0.5. The
female. Ans. 14/39 ; 95/112 probability that a man watches the show,
given that his wife does, is 0.70. Find the
Problem 7: In the senior year of a high probability that
school graduating class of 100 students, (8.1) a married couple watches the show;
42 studied mathematics, 68 studied (8.2) a wife watches the show given that
psychology, 54 studied history, 22 her husband does;
studied both mathematics and history, (8.3) at least 1 person of a married couple
25 studied both mathematics and will watch the show. 0.35; 0.875; 0.55
Problem 9: The probability that a vehicle (11.1) between 84 and 95 inclusive
entering NLEX has NCR license plates is survive?
0.12; the probability that it is a camper is (11.2) fewer than 86 survive?
0.28; and the probability that it is a Ans. 0.9515; 0.06681
camper with NCR license plates is 0.09.
Problem 12: Given a standard normal
What is the probability that
distribution, find the area (probability)
(9.1) a camper entering the NLEX has NCR
under the curve which lies
license plates?
(12.1) to the left of z=1.43;
(9.2) a vehicle with NCR license plates
(12.2) to the right of z=-0.89;
entering the NLEX is a camper?
(12.3) between z=-2.16 and z=-0.65;
(9.3) a vehicle entering NLEX does not
(12.4) to the left of -1.39;
have NCR plates or is not a camper?
(12.5) to the right of z=1.96;
Ans. 9/28; ¾; 0.91
(12.6) between z=-0.48 and z=1.74.
Problem 10: Evaluate P(1X4) for a Ans. 0.9236; 0.8133; 0.2424; 0.0823;
binomial variable with n=15 and p=0.2 0.0250; 0.6435
using the normal-curve approximation.
Ans. 0.7803
Problem 11: The probability that a
patient recovers from a delicate heart
operation is 0.90. Of the next 100
patients having this operation, what is
the probability that
Problem 13: A research scientists reports 𝑝𝑎𝑡 1 = 𝑝𝑚 ∗ 1 − 𝑝𝑊 + pW ∗ p M
that mice will leave an average of 40 𝑀 W
The Median
The median is the middle value when the values are
arranged in order. Another version of the formula that is generally
easier to work is
The Mode
The mode is the most commonly occurring value.
The Standard Deviation Quartiles
The standard deviation is the square root of the Quartiles are values that divide a set of observation
variance. It is a measure of how dispersed the set into 4 equal parts. These values, denoted by Q1, Q2,
of data are, and it is in the same unit as the data. and Q3 are such that 25% of the data falls below Q1,
50% falls below Q2, and 75% falls below Q3.
FRACTILES: Percentiles, Deciles, and
are numbers that partition, or divide, an ordered
Quartiles The Interquartile Range (IQR)
data set into equal parts. The IQR indicates the spread of the middle 50% of
values.
Percentiles
Percentiles are values that divide a set of
observation into 100 equal parts. These values,
denoted by P1, P2, …, P99, are such that 1% of the
data falls below P1, 2% falls below P2, …, and 99%
falls below P99.
Deciles
Deciles are values that divide a set of observation
into 10 equal parts. These values, denoted by D1,
D2, …, D9 are such that 10% of the data falls below
D1, 20% falls below D2, …, and 90% falls below D9.
Mean (Mn), Median(Med), and Mode (Mo) ∆𝑓ℎ𝑙 𝑖
𝑀𝑜 = 𝑙𝑏𝑚𝑜 +
of a Class Group ∆𝑓ℎ𝑙 + ∆𝑓ℎ𝑢
𝑚𝑝 𝑓 lbmo = the lower boundary of the modal class=lc-0.5
𝑀𝑛 =
σ𝑓 fhl = highest frequency minus the frequency of the
next lower class
mp = midpoint of a class
f = frequency of the class fhu = highest frequency minus the frequency of the
f = total frequency next upper class
σ𝑓 Problems
−< 𝑐𝑓 𝑖
2
𝑀𝑒𝑑 = 𝑙𝑏𝑚𝑐 + 1. A group of students were given a short mental
𝑓𝑚𝑐 arithmetic test. Their scores were 7, 6, 7, 5, 6, 8, 5, 7,
lbmc = the lower boundary of the median class=lc-0.5 8, 9. For this group, calculate (a) the mean; (b) the
median; (c) the mode.
f/2 = half of total frequency Answer: mean = 6.8, median = 7, mode = 7
fmc = frequency of median class
i = class width = difference of two lower classes from
median class 2. Find the mean and standard deviation of the
following set of data: 11, 13, 14, 16, 18.
Answer: mean = 14.4, = 2.42
3. The frequency table below shows the number of 6. The ages of 45 persons are shown in the grouped
children that 45 women have. frequency table.
Find (a) the mean; (b) the median; (c) the mode.
Answer: mean = 1.1, median = 1, mode = (a) Calculate the mean age. Answer: 28.6
1 yr old
4. The number of working days lost due to accidents for (b) Find the median age. Answer: 27.7 yr old
each of the 12 months in a one-year period are as (c) Determine the modal age. Answer: 26.8 yr old
follows: 27, 37, 40, 28, 23, 30, 35, 24, 30, 32, 31, 28. 7. The heights of 142 plants are recorded below.
Determine the first quartile value for this data.
Answer: 27.5
5. The scores of a group of students in a short mental
test (from Problem 1) were, in order, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7,
8, 8, 9. Calculate (a) the quartiles; (b) the interquartile
range.
Answer: Q1 = 6, Q2 = 7, Q3 = 8, IQR = 2
Calculate (a) the mean and (b) the variance.
Answer: mean = 71.9, 2 = 30.0