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A (1998)
161, Part 3, pp. 291^302
Roger Levett{
CAG Consultants, London, UK
[Read before The Royal Statistical Society at an Ordinary Discussion Meeting on `Alternatives to
economic statistics as indicators of national well-being' on Wednesday, January 14th, 1998, the
President, Professor R. N. Curnow, in the Chair ]
Summary. The struggle to ®nd and use indicators of sustainable development is intimately bound
up with the process of deciding what we mean by sustainable development and what we shall do
about it. In this ®eld at least, indicators are intrinsically and unavoidably normative and political.
The paper proposes an approach to indicators which re¯ects, and can further clarify and help to
achieve, an important aspect of sustainable development. The paper is written from a practical,
instrumental interest in indicators as a tool to put sustainable development principles into practice
in public policy. The author is not a statistician and makes no claim to technical expertise but
hopes that this `barefoot' practitioner perspective may be of some interest to the professionals.
The main argument is introduced by a discussion of some of the pitfalls and limitations of sus-
tainability indicators to date.
Keywords: Environmental limits; Indicators; Policy integration; Quality of life; Sustainability
1. Some clari®cations
1.1. `Fitness for purpose'
Everyone agrees that indicators should be
(a) policy relevant,
(b) resonant,
(c) scienti®cally valid and
(d) measurable (i.e. the necessary data are available).
The painful experience of the last few years has been that it is hard enough to ®nd indicators
with any two or three of these attributes. The `resonant' indicators developed by (for
example) the famous community-led `Sustainable Seattle' project or many UK `Local agenda
21' processes have had minimal eect on policy (for example see Brugmann (1997)); the
technical indicators developed by (for example) the Dutch government and the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) bae everyone else. And few data
are available for any of them.
This paper argues that instead of straining to produce a single de®nitive set of sustainable
development indicators we should take a more modest `®tness-for-purpose' approach: using
dierent indicators sets for dierent purposes. (Although, as will be argued in Section 1.3,
dierent does not mean unconnected or inconsistent.)
{Address for correspondence: CAG Consultants, Antonia House, 262 Holloway Road, London, N7 6NE, UK.
E-mail: hq@cagconsult.co.uk
Resonant indicators
Technical indicators
established indicators if we are to achieve an eective policy. The conclusion of the previous
section Ð that such isolated `peaks' need not be ambiguous provided that we `buttress' them
with supporting subsidiary indicators Ð is therefore useful. However, this part of the paper
argues that producing these headline indicators cannot be a tidy stepwise process of deciding
what we mean by sustainable development and then choosing suitable indicators to en-
capsulate it. Instead, developing policies and indicators go hand in hand.
But it provokes further questions. What range of food is available at the local shop, and is
it as cheap and fresh as at the superstore 15 km away? How good is the service from the bus-
stop? How many busy main roads does a partially sighted pensioner have to cross to reach
the post-oce or food shop? How much time does it take a household to make its usual
pattern of trips to food shops, workplaces, schools and so on each week? How much longer
does it take without a car? For how many households does the cost of reaching recreations,
entertainments and social facilities exceed a certain proportion of disposable income Ð is
there a class of `transport poor' who suer the same sort of exclusion as the `fuel poor'?
Distance, time, cost and availability of services may all matter for accessibility, and there is
no one obvious way to weight and combine them. Capturing and re¯ecting these various
concerns adequately in indicators that are technically robust, not too complicated to be
comprehensible and not prohibitively expensive to measure is a considerable professional
challenge. But this does not mean that access is meaningless or impossible to measure. Instead
it means that we already have a general notion of what we mean by accessibility (including,
crucially, that it is not the same as mobility), but we shall discover more sharply and
speci®cally what we mean by it Ð and which aspects we are most concerned about Ð through
the process of inventing, trying, criticizing, discarding and re®ning possible indicators of it.
These examples show that developing indicators is intrinsically a dialectical rather than a
deductive process. The struggle to frame measures leads us to a better understanding of what
we are concerned about. Grappling with the question `how can we tell whether it is growing
better or worse?' both forces and helps us to clarify what we think `it' is. Indicators are not
neutral technical entities: they are inescapably value laden. They are inputs to policy as well
as consequences of it.
These indicators have (as intended) elicited extensive comment and debate. This is now
informing development of the next set of indicators. But it should also inform the Labour
Government's development of its policies and views of sustainable development. The next
part of this paper discusses an important strand of this: the relationship between economic,
environmental and social aims in sustainable development more broadly.
Environment Economy
Society
Environment
Society
Economy
Measuring either of these presents big practical and theoretical diculties. The next sections
touch brie¯y on these; either deserves a book to itself.
`tradable'. (See for example Levett (1998).) It is not yet clear that all impacts can be sensibly
converted into land footprint terms. But by avoiding this problem `environmental space' does
not oer a single measure of progress towards or away from environmental sustainability.
Both methods already provide compelling evidence that countries like the UK are
exceeding prudent levels of resource consumption severalfold rather than by the tens of
percentage points which mainstream policy discusses. But both footprinting and environ-
mental space are held up by poor, inconsistent and missing data, leading to huge error bars.
Unlike many of the problems of sustainability indicators this problem is soluble simply by a
suciently large helping of old-fashioned statistical elbow-grease. One of the most useful
contributions that the Government could make is to pay for this to consolidate and re®ne the
pioneering work that has so far been done on a relative shoestring by academics and
campaigning organizations.
(which does not detract from the immense educational and polemical value of the ISEW and
other alternative indices in making people question the use of GDP as a measure of welfare
and recognize it as illicit and ideologically loaded!).
For the same reason, economic and quasi-economic methods of ascertaining preferences
such as `contingent valuation' are ruled out since they rely on exactly the assumptions that
quality of life can be adequately captured through aggregating individual `what is it worth to
me?' bids which the `communitarian' strand of sustainability thought rejects.
So there is no escape from subjectivity. If we are trying to measure quality of life, we must
(in some sense, and at some stage) ask the people concerned what they think it is. The new
consultation toolkit of `Local agenda 21' Ð focus groups, citizens' juries, `future search' or
`syntegrity' techniques, methods which seek to build consensus through deliberative group
process Ð may help. However, we are probably even further from a satisfactory measurement
of quality of life than we are with environmental limits.
replacing the power-station with smaller ones that can recover and use the waste heat
doubles thermal eciency.
(d) By concentrating on only parts of the chain, current performance measures distort
policy. For example the existence of a reliable standardized method to measure the
physical thermal eciency of individual buildings has led to its widespread use as a
performance measure. This encourages emphasis on ®tting widgets to houses and ¯ats,
to the detriment of changing the behaviour of householders and installing neigh-
bourhood level combined heat and power, which can often save more energy at less
cost but are invisible in terms of the indicator. (This is like the hospital waiting lists
problem described earlier.)
(e) Some of the interventions which most preoccupy policy makers at present are sterile in
sustainability terms. For example raising or lowering the price of household energy
simply tilts the seesaw to favour either the environment or comfort at the expense of
the other. Price manipulation can be a powerful tool for sustainability Ð but it depends
on what else is done with it.
(f ) Improvements in several of the ratios can simply be added up. For example a 20%
reduction in the energy needed to keep houses warm (step 5) and a 10% increase in
renewable generation would achieve a 30% reduction in burning fossil fuel. Even
though some reduce each other's eect (for example, the more eciently electricity is
generated in the ®rst place, the less greenhouse bene®t each low energy light achieves),
surprisingly large overall improvements could be built up from a systematic im-
plementation of individually modest and achievable improvements along the chain.
All these are instances of the general point that, by letting us see both the separate
components of green energy and how they relate overall, indicators of this form could help us
to make intelligent, integrated decisions about energy policy. Perhaps we could save more
energy in the home by reviving a taste for living in large families in terraced houses and
singing together round the living-room piano on winter evenings Ð what we could call the
J. B. Priestley model of sustainability Ð than through the technical ®xes which currently
preoccupy policy. The numbers could tell us.
300 R. Levett
Intermediate steps (sum- Technical fuel eciency of Soil degradation Renewable : non-renewable
marized) vehicles ratio (e.g. timber : plastic)
Vehicle occupancy rates Fossil fuel±synthetic fertili- Manufacturing eco-
zer intensity of crops eciency
Modal split (car±public Meat proportion of diet± Durability, repair, reuse,
transport±non- feed intensity of animal recycling rates
motorized) rearing
Local accessibility of Food waste in preparation Multifunction versus
amenities proliferation
Food waste at home Voluntary simplicity
Quality-of-life-component Access Good food Services from consumption
Sustainability Indicators 301
community severance, reduction in healthy exercise, town centre erosion and so on. (Indeed
improved fuel consumption could make these other problems worse by reducing the cost of
motoring unless it was combined with corrective measures such as higher fuel taxes.) By
contrast an action nearer to the social end of the chain, reducing the need to travel by car,
would improve all of these. `Broad spectrum' or `integrative' actions like this hold the key
to a painless transition towards sustainability. The indicators model proposed can help to
identify them.
The second catch is that this model does not measure sustainability itself, but only whether
we are moving towards or away from it. Given that the current priority is to reverse trends
away from sustainability, this seems a tolerable limitation at present, provided that we can be
con®dent that the model does always point us in the right direction. As we progressively pick
o the simplest and most unambiguously bene®cial integrative actions, this will become more
dicult to prove. But this is a problem to dream of.
Even at the current pioneer stage, the kinds of indicators suggested could connect policy
aspirations more ®rmly with organizational practice by providing a basis for cascading
national and international sustainability targets down to local levels and latching them into
objectives for environmental management systems, `best practice' bench-marks and such like.
The third catch is that this model has so far ignored the economy. In one sense this is its
great strength. By taking each chain to a quality-of-life end point, it avoids the risk inherent
in traditional eco-eciency measures, such as those comparing environmental consumption
with GDP, of sanitizing and sanctioning economic activities which do not contribute to
welfare and should instead be abolished. In this model `the economy' ceases to be the altar on
which we devoutly sacri®ce both human welfare and environmental security and instead
becomes the rather frustrating and obstructive maze that we must traverse to connect them.
The catch is benign because excluding the economy as an end makes the indicators model
better able to understand and manage it as a means, by showing how any proposed econ-
omic instruments Ð taxes, charges, subsidies and so on Ð would aect the integration of
environmental limits and quality-of-life components, undistracted by spurious or question-
able economic proxies for these. The proposed indicators web would probably reveal
ecological tax reform Ð shifting taxation from social desirables such as employment to
environmental evils such as energy use, pollution and waste Ð as potentially one of the
biggest integrative actions of all. At a more microlevel, it would allow the sustainability
eects of dierent possible actions to be compared. Adding information about the cost of
those actions would provide a basis for assessing sustainability cost-eectiveness, and making
intelligent decisions about priorities.
4. Conclusion
This paper has aimed both to argue that the development of sustainability indicators and
policy are intimately intertwined and to exhibit the dialectical process in action, through the
move from the three-ring circus to the Russian doll model of sustainability.
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