UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE

BERKELEY • DAVIS • IRVINE • LOS ANGELES • MERCED • RIVERSIDE • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO SANTA BARBARA • SANTA CRUZ

2014-2015
Annual Report
Table of Contents

DIRECTOR’S  MESSAGE    ..............................................................................................................  2  

I.   ORGANIZATION  AND  ADMINISTRATION  ..............................................................................  4  
A.   Administration  .....................................................................................................................................................................  4  
B.   Executive  Committee  2014-­‐15  ......................................................................................................................................  4  
II. RESEARCH  ..........................................................................................................................  4
A.  
Current  Research  Programs  ...........................................................................................................................................  4  
B.  
Publications  ...........................................................................................................................................................................  5  
C.  
Public  Talks  and  Colloquia  ..............................................................................................................................................  5  
D.  
Summaries  of  Research  Findings  .................................................................................................................................  6  
III. GRADUATE  TRAINING  ......................................................................................................  24
A.   Ph.D.  Students  ....................................................................................................................................................................  24  
B.   Graduate  Activities  ..........................................................................................................................................................  24  
C.   Weekly  Research  Presentations  ................................................................................................................................  24  
D.   Duncan  Luce  Graduate  Student  Conference  ........................................................................................................  27  
E.   Jean-­‐Claude  Falmagne  Dissertation  Award  ..........................................................................................................  28  
IV. COMMUNICATION  ..........................................................................................................  28
A.  
IMBS  Conferences  ............................................................................................................................................................  28  
B.  
Conferences/Seminars  Organized  By  IMBS  Members  .....................................................................................  32  
C.  
Visitors  ..................................................................................................................................................................................  33  
D.  
IMBS  Colloquia  Series  ....................................................................................................................................................  33  
V.   BUDGET  ...........................................................................................................................  37  
A.   Appropriations  and  Expenditures  ............................................................................................................................  37  
B.   Extramural  Funding  Activity  ......................................................................................................................................  38  
VI. APPENDICES  ....................................................................................................................  47
A.   CURRENT  FACULTY  MEMBERS  .................................................................................................................................  47  
B.   SCIENTIFIC  PUBLICATIONS  ........................................................................................................................................  55  
C.   TECHNICAL  REPORT  SERIES  ......................................................................................................................................  76  
D.   FACULTY  PRESENTATIONS  ........................................................................................................................................  77  
E.   FACULTY  AWARDS  AND  ACHIEVEMENTS  ...........................................................................................................  94  
F.   FACULTY  ADVISING  ......................................................................................................................................................  101  
G.   VISITORS  TO  IMBS  ........................................................................................................................................................  104  
 DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE

Dear Colleagues and Administrators,

This has been another excellent year for the IMBS; it started with the encouraging news
that the IMBS has been renewed for another five years! This means that we can continue to
explore how to use mathematical reasoning to advance our understanding of the social and
behavioral sciences.

The strength of any organization derives from the contributions of its members. In this
direction, let me strongly encourage the reader to jump ahead to the first main part, IID. This
section, which outlines some of the results and advances that have been made this year by IMBS
members, is my personal favorite. While I know much of what is being done, each year I am
amazed at the variety of topics being addressed and the exciting new results being discovered.
Topics range from the use of mathematics to address new concerns in the cognitive sciences,
decisions made by adolescents, new results about color perception and sparse data problems, to
even special reports requested by the President-elect of Poland. Impressive!

As true every year, to help advance the use of mathematics and the social and behavioral
sciences, the IMBS puts together several conferences. (Agendas are in Section IVA.) An
interesting one we had in early February (with participants representing mathematics, engineering,
evolutionary sciences, and the social and behavioral sciences) explored the topic of “Validation.
What is it?” The problem addressed reflects the reality that throughout the social, behavioral, and
even engineering and physical sciences, models are developed to analyze the frontiers of science.
But, how accurate and reliable are they? This is, of course, a central issue in engineering, where a
typical approach is to use data to assess accuracy of predictions. But, as true in several federal
agencies, this standard approach is an unavailable luxury. In Homeland Security, or with various
issues facing NIH, for instance, if data is available, it can imply an inefficient, disastrous model.
Moreover, if the validity, or weaknesses, of a model can be identified in advance, savings would
be obtained. But, as it turns out, there are no general, available principles to validate models, and
so a purpose of this conference was to identify what they may be. Because of the importance NIH
attaches to these issues, we are holding discussions with appropriate NIH officials about the
possibility of another meeting or study, and with a NRC committee that has expressed interest.

A second conference, held in March, combined central IMBS themes of the understanding
how groups should make decisions and how decisions actually are made. The Behavioral Social
Choice meeting, which attracted speakers from across the country representing the disciplines of
psychology, mathematics, political science, economics, and sociology. A particular feature of this
conference is how some of the presentations identified new approaches that will be further
explored.
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 A topic of growing interest involves using mathematical models of economics to address
puzzles of religion and culture. In our May conference examining these issues, topics ranged
from the role of financial markets, and social norms in addressing a variety of cultural norms.
This conference was an extension of a workshop held through the year and organized by Jean-
Paul Carvalho.

Of growing popularity is our annual graduate student conference that now is named in
honor of Duncan Luce, the founding director of the IMBS. The wide variety of interests of
students affiliated with the IMBS is reflected by the titles of their presentations.

Other activities (agendas in IIIC, IVD) include our weekly colloquium on Thursday that
covers a wide variety of topics, and our Friday noon session where the emphasis is more on ideas
still being developed. Most of the presentations in this Friday series are by graduate students;
most are from the social and behavioral sciences, but others come from engineering, ecology and
evolutionary biology. New this year is a Tuesday night discussion group (section III C) where the
emphasis has been on notions that are still bubbling up; ideas that have not matured to a state of
paper. As the description suggests, this proves to be a lively discussion group. In this same
direction of encouraging new directions of research, this year the IMBS initiated a “seed grant”
program.

Among the many other IMBS features you will find described in this report are the
winners of the Falmagne Dissertation Research Award, the large number of papers published,
talks presented, awards, grants, and distinctions received, and conferences organized by IMBS
members.

It has been another active, successful year. We hope you enjoy reading this report.

Sincerely,

Donald G. Saari
Director, IMBS

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I. ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION

A. Administration

The Director of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences is Professor Donald G.
Saari. He reports both to the Dean of the School of Social Sciences and to the Vice-Chancellor
for Research. An Executive Committee for consultation and decision-making regarding the long-
term direction of the Institute assists the Director, (section B below).

The staff of the Director’s office consists of an Administrator, Joanna Kerner. Presently,
some bookkeeping and personnel matters are being taken care of by the School of Social
Sciences.

Director: Donald G. Saari, 2003-present

Previous Directors: R. Duncan Luce, Founding Director, 1989-1998
William H. Batchelder, 1999-2003
Graduate Director: Louis Narens
Administrator: Joanna Kerner

B. Executive Committee 2014-15

Carter Butts, Professor of Sociology

Michelle Garfinkel, Professor of Economics
Geoff Iverson, Professor of Cognitive Sciences
Michael D. Lee, Professor of Cognitive Sciences
Mark Machina, Professor of Economics, UC San Diego
Brian Skyrms, Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science
Hongkai Zhao, Professor of Mathematics

II. RESEARCH

A. Current Research Programs

There are 66 members of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences (IMBS) and
their research interests are listed in Appendix A.

The IMBS is roughly partitioned into five research clusters. These are listed below and
should be considered as informal intellectual groupings, rather than formal structures.

Measurement Theory, Foundational Issues, and Scaling Models:

Barrett, Batchelder, Burton, Falmagne, Lefebvre, Maddy, Narens, Romney,
Skyrms, and Weatherall

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Statistical Modeling:
Cognitive: Baldi, Batchelder, Dosher, Eppstein, Falmagne, Iverson, Lee, Pearl,
Romney, Smyth, Steyvers, and Yellott
Economic: Brownstone, Poirier, and Saari
Sociological/Anthropological: Boyd, Butts, Faust, Freeman, and White

Individual Decision Making: Birnbaum, Keller, Machina, Narens, Saari, and Trueblood

Perceptions and Psychophysics:

Vision: Braunstein, Chubb, D’Zmura, Hoffman, Iverson, Palais, Romney,
Sperling, Srinivasan, Wright, Xin, Yellott, and Zhao
Psychophysics and Response Times: Brownstone, Falmagne, Iverson, Jameson,
Narens, and Yellott

Social and Economic Phenomena:

Economics and Game Theory: Branch, Brownstone, Brueckner, Burton,
Carvalho, Frank, Garfinkel, Komarova, Kopylov, Levin, McBride, O’Connor,
Poirier, Saari, Skaperdas, and Skyrms
Public Choice: Carvalho, Cohen, Glazer, Grofman, Kaminski, Keller, McGann,
Taagepera, and Uhlaner
Social Networks: Batchelder, Boyd, Butts, Faust, Freeman, Noymer, Romney, and
White
Social Dynamics and Evolution: Butts, Frank, Huttegger, Johnson, Narens,
Romney, Saari, Skyrms, Smyth, Stern, and White

B. Publications
The members who have replied report a total of 223 journal publications (published or in
press) for the current academic year. These are listed in Appendix B.

The IMBS has a technical report series that is available to all members and qualified
graduate students who are submitting a paper to a refereed journal or book. The series editor is
Donald Saari. Appendix C lists the technical reports issued during the academic year. Technical
reports since 1993 can be found under “printed resources” on the Institute’s web site at
http://www.imbs.uci.edu/research/technical.php.

C. Public Talks and Colloquia

IMBS members actively participated in numerous off-campus research seminars and

conferences. The members who replied gave a total of 181 talks listed in Appendix D. Their
awards and achievements for this year can be found in Appendix E.

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 D. Summaries of Research Findings

An important aspect of the Institute is the research conclusions developed by its members.
What follows is a sample of what has happened this year.

Measurement Theory, Foundational Issues, and Scaling Models

William Batchhelder

This past year I and my Co-Editors Hans Colonius, Ehtibar Dzhafarov, and Jay Myung have
finalized Volume I of the New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology to be published by
Cambridge University Press, and we are well on the way to Volume II. The original three volume
Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Edited by Duncan Luce, Robert Bush, and Eugene
Galanter in the 1960s, was a key element in the rise of mathematical psychology in the 1960s. We
have tried to remain faithful to the original handbook by emphasizing foundational issues and
mathematical methods rather than specific models and empirical studies.

Vladimir A. Lefevre

a) Translation and publication of my book “Conflicting Structures” devoted to modeling the

systems that have an image of the self, published by Leaf & Oaks Publishers, 2015.

b) Theoretical explanation of the figure 0.75 appearing in experiments devoted to the

quantification of human emotion. The result of this work done in collaboration with Dr.
Robert Schwartz from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center was published in the
American Psychologist, Sept. 2014, under the title “The Quantification of Emotion: An
Empirical Ratio in Search of a Theory”

c) Construction of theoretical model of antiterrorism using the reflexive game theory. The
results were published as a paper and PP Presentation at 19th International Command and
Control Research and Technology Symposium, 2014. This work was done in collaboration
with Dr. Kofi Nyamekye from Integrated Activity-Based Simulation Research, Inc.

Louis Narens

During the last year, my research primarily focused on four overlapping areas: (1) foundations of
probability, (2) modeling context effects in Social Science experimental research, (3) the
psychological and social evolution of concepts, and (4) behavioral economics and decision theory.
Surprisingly, there is much overlap in these four areas. For example, cross-cultural categorization
data can be modeled by a newly developed probability theory that incorporates in context as part
of its probabilistic structure, where, in this instance, context corresponds to the culture in which a
physical color sample is categorized.

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My foundations of probability research and my behavioral economic and decision theory research
are based mainly on the idea that there are alternatives to standard probability that can account for
puzzling and hard to model empirical Social Science phenomena. New foundations for probability
based on non-boolean event spaces are investigated and applied to a variety of situations in which
forms of ambiguity, vagueness, and contextuality are present. A part of the behavioral economic
research involving utilitarian distribution of goods uses different ideas that I have previously
developed for the foundations of measurement.

Starting September this year, I became a Co-PI on a new $980,000 NSF grant on the
psychological and social evolution of concepts (Kimberly Jameson, IMBS, PI, Natalia Komarova,
IMBS and Mathematics, and Dominik Vordaz, Ecology and Evolution, as other Co-PIs). My
focus for this proposal is developing and implementing computer simulations using methods and
concepts from evolutionary game theory to get artificial populations of agents to acquire shared
meanings for systems of concepts, e.g., categorize the human perceptual spaces of colors in
meaningful ways. During this year, progress was made on this goal through collaboration with
Kimberly Jameson and Sean Tauber (Assistant Research Scientist, IMBS) and a group of
computer science students who participated in a special research program funded and sponsored
by CALIT2.

The above research of mine has resulted in the following publications: A book, Probabilistic
Lattices With Applications to Science (World Scientific), a book chapter, “On Replacing
‘Quantum Thinking’ with Counterfactual Reasoning” (to appear in Contextuality from Quantum
Physics to Psychology, edited by Ehtibar Dzhafarov, Ru Zhang, Scott Jordan, and Victor
Cervantes), and an article, “Probabilistic frames for non-boolean algebras,” to appear in
Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. Also, two articles has been submitted:
“Multimode Utility Theory” to the Journal of Mathematical Psychology, and “Measuring
Utilitarianism’’ (with Brian Skyrms, IMBS, Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science) to
Philosophy of Science.

During the last year I have given presentations at several workshops and conferences, including
two symposia presentations at the Mathematical Psychology Meeting (Quebec City, Canada),
International Society for Psychophysics Meeting (Lund, Sweden), Winer Memorial Lecture
(Purdue), Philosophy of Science Meeting (Chicago), Fields Institute (Toronto, Canada), a
colloquium at Carnegie Mellon University, a lecture on perception at Kiel University (Germany),
and a presentation at a conference I co-organized for IMBS.

During this year, my research has been support by grants from AFOSR and NSF.

Penelope Maddy

I’ve been working largely in meta-philosophy, especially on the relations between philosophy and
science. I argue that philosophy needs no distinctive, extra-scientific methods.

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 Statistical Modeling

David Eppstein

In my paper "The Galois complexity of graph drawing: why numerical solutions are ubiquitous
for force-directed, spectral, and circle packing drawings" (with Bannister, Devanny, and
Goodrich, published at Graph Drawing 2014) we studied several standard methods of placing the
nodes in visualizations of social networks. We showed that, although the intended placements
used by these methods can be described by systems of polynomial equations, they have no exact
closed form formulas. This explains in part why most implementations of these visualization
systems use numerical hill-climbing methods to move the nodes into near-optimal position rather
than directly placing them in their optimal positions.

Michael Lee

My work continues to focus on modeling higher-order cognition (decision-making, memory,

learning), especially through the application of hierarchical Bayesian methods. Research
highlights have included a paper studying adaptive decision heuristics, several research efforts
applying cognitive models to "wisdom of the crowd" problems (especially dealing with ranking
data), and applied collaborations with Ranker.com (wisdom of the crowd in social media) and the
Medical Care Corporation (Alzheimer's disease and related disorders).

Lisa Pearl

One set of findings concerns how the cognitively immature minds of children solve the various
tasks involved in native language learning (called language acquisition). Pearl (2014) discusses
how computational and mathematical modeling is an invaluable tool for scientists who want to
understand the language acquisition strategies that all children use. This is because modeling
provides a way to concretely realize a theory about a learning strategy, apply that strategy to
realistic language data, and see the results of the learning strategy. This approach can be used for
a wide range of linguistic phenomena and offers insights that cannot be found by using theoretical
or experimental methods alone.

Several studies by Phillips & Pearl (2014, 2015, in press) use computational modeling to
investigate the task of speech segmentation, which is the process of identifying individual units
like words in fluent speech. As anyone who has ever listened to a foreign language knows, there
are rarely any overt markers of word boundaries - it often sounds like one long stream of sounds.
Instead, listeners who know the language unconsciously impose boundaries to identify the words
being spoken. Infants typically are able to do this for their native language as early as six month
old. In our studies, we examine two speech segmentation strategies proposed for infant use,
implement these strategies concretely via a mathematical formalization, and apply them to
realistic language data that infants would hear. Importantly, we draw from existing experimental
literature to empirically ground our simulations with respect to (i) how infants perceive the speech

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stream, (ii) what kind of cognitive processing infants are capable of, and (iii) what kind of
segmentation performance infants need to achieve. Interestingly, one of the two strategies — a
Bayesian segmentation strategy — appears to correlate very well with infant segmentation
behavior: (i) it succeeds equally well on languages as linguistically diverse as English, Japanese,
and Farsi, and (ii) consistently segments useful linguistic units that can scaffold acquisition
processes that occur in later in development. This suggests the Bayesian segmentation strategy is
a robust strategy for infants to use for segmentation, no matter which language(s) they may be
learning natively.

Another set of findings in this vein concern the acquisition of structural knowledge about
language (called syntax). In Pearl & Mis (in press), we examine how toddlers learn the correct
interpretation for the pronoun one in English (e.g., Look - an important finding! Here's another
one!, with one referring to another important finding rather than just any old finding).
Experimental data suggests that English 18-month-olds share this interpretation with adults, and
so must have learned it by this point in development. Our mathematical modeling of the
acquisition process suggests that this rapid acquisition is possible if toddlers are leveraging
broader sets of data to make the syntactic generalizations that lead to their observed behavior —
in this case, learning about how to interpret one by leveraging data about how other pronouns like
it, her, and him are typically interpreted. This contrasts with many previous theories that stated
infants needed to learn from restricted input sets (e.g., only some of the input data using one as a
pronoun).

In Pearl & Sprouse (2015), we find a similar learning story for the structure of linguistic
dependencies, such as "What do you think ___ convinced them?", where "what" seems to be
understood as the subject of the embedded clause "convinced them". In particular, previous
theories about how children learn about acceptable dependencies in their language assumed
children learned from restricted data sets. These theories relied on very specific innate, linguistic
knowledge to explain how children could learn the appropriate knowledge about dependencies
from those restricted data sets. In contrast, our mathematical model leveraged a broader data set to
generate the appropriate knowledge, and so did not require that very specific innate, linguistic
knowledge. This suggests that children’s syntactic knowledge about dependencies may rely on
more general learning procedures, rather than the very specific ones that target dependencies
alone.

A finding in the area of natural language processing concerns the automatic identification of
mental states of text, using linguistic cues within the text (rather than non-verbal cues such as
voice pitch or facial expression). For example, “Don’t you just love this idea?” is expressing a
persuasive intention (and possibly sarcasm), as well as some distinctive linguistic cues include the
use of “don’t” to begin the question and the use of a second person pronoun ("you”) preceding a
verb with a positive connotation (“love”). Since humans routinely transmit and interpret this kind
of subtle information via linguistic cues, we suggest in Pearl & Enverga (2015), building on work
in Pearl & Steyvers (2013, 2010), that humans can utilize the linguistic signature of a mental state
(its “mindprint”) to accomplish this. We focus on the mindprints of eight mental states resulting
9
from intentions, attitudes, and emotions, and present a mindprint-based machine learning
technique to automatically identify these mental states in realistic language data. By using
linguistic features that leverage deeper linguistic information, our approach achieves near-human
performance on average and even exceeds human performance on occasion. Interestingly, we find
that our technique makes similar errors to humans in some cases, suggesting that the mindprints
used are similar to the mindprints human use. Given the promising results we have found, we
suggest that linguistically-sophisticated mindprints are likely to be a viable and important
component of any intelligent system interacting linguistically with humans.

Sociological/Anthropological

John Boyd

This year and last: my co-author, William H. Batchelder, and I finished a chapter entitled
"Networks" for the New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology. Batchelder's part of the chapter
featured a new proof of the much cited but seldom proved Hammersley-Clifford theorem, while
my part was devoted to applications of linear algebra to network analysis. An interesting personal
vignette is that my graduate advisor, Anatol Rapoport, wrote the Network chapter for the original
1963 Handbook of Mathematical Psychology.

Carter Butts

Substance use among adolescents is of concern both because of its immediate impact on
adolescent health and because of its potential for shaping long-run patterns of behavior:
particularly in the case of tobacco use, adoption as a teenager can lead to a life-long addiction
with serious health consequences. Interventions intended to reduce adolescent substance use are
complicated by the fact that such behaviors are affected by the social and cultural context in
which youth reside, and that this context is itself actively shaped by the youths themselves
(including by their substance use behavior). Unraveling these complexities requires the use of
cutting-edge computational and statistical models that can capture the interdependent process of
decision making and social interaction among adolescents, while also accounting for
environmental and other factors that shape the context in which decisions are made. In joint work
with colleagues Cynthia Lakon, John Hipp, and David Timberlake (as well as postdoc Cheng
Wang and student Rupa Josa), we have used such models to probe the interplay between peer
influence, selection (i.e., the process by which adolescents choose friends and support partners),
and parental relationships in shaping smoking behavior. Our approach allows us to not only
estimate the direction and strength of each mechanism among adolescents in our data set (a
sample of high schools and junior high schools from across the United States), but also to employ
``what if'' scenarios to probe the impact of each social mechanism both net of and in conjunction
with the others. Our research shows that, for smoking behavior, peer influence has the strongest
impact on prevalence -- but, contrary to popular belief, its typical effect is to suppress smoking
rather than to encourage it. The solution to the influence puzzle lies in the simple observation that
peer influence tends to suppress deviant behavior: and, for most adolescent populations, only a
10
minority of youth are smokers. Our findings indicate that this low prevalence is maintained in
part by a form of ``herd resistance'' brought about by peer influence, with non-smoking
adolescents helping to discourage smoking among their peers. Were the influence of peers
abolished (a hypothetical we can explore via simulation), youth would be more vulnerable to the
impact of marketing and other sources of pro-smoking influence (leading, we estimate, to a large
increase in youth smoking prevalence). By contrast, interventions strengthening peer influence
are predicted to lead to lower prevalence, suggesting that public health is better served by
encouraging adolescents to talk to each other openly and frankly about smoking than by
attempting to discourage adolescents from turning to peers for guidance. This research highlights
the power of mathematical and computational models to reveal important and often
counterintuitive facts about the social world, and to identify ways of leveraging these discoveries
to address issues that affect the health and well-being of the public at large.

Individual Decision-Making

L. Robin Keller

A research team of UCI physicians and UCI Merage School of Business Professor L. Robin
Keller and doctoral student Jiaru Bai, along with other physicians, used a Markov decision tree to
evaluate the cost per added month of life of combining the biological therapy drug bevacizumab
(Avastin™) to chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone for advanced cervical cancer
patients. Minion et al. (2015) found the estimated total cost of therapy with bevacizumab is
approximately 13.2 times that for chemotherapy alone, adding $73,791 per 3.5 months (0.29 year)
of life gained, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $21,083 per month of
added life.

Perception and Psychophysics

Kimberly A. Jameson

In 2014-2015 Jameson’s research continued on topics in the empirical testing and mathematical
modeling of color perception and cognition. However, the 2014-2015 academic year was marked
by both new research ventures and novel extensions of longstanding research directions. For
example, new opportunities arose to carry out exciting applied color perception research with a
participant who is a professional artist who happens to also have the genetic potential for human
tetrachromacy. Intense ongoing empirical study on this topic and has yielded some very important
advances that have been presented in recent conference talks, and are reported in manuscripts in-
progress. A second novel project envisioned by Jameson was initiated with medical school
colleagues at the Gavin Herbert Eye Institute, UCI, and a grant was submitted to fund new studies
on color perception assessment methods for Early Adult-onset Macular Degeneration. A third
novel project -- which is an extension of Jameson’s ongoing UC PacRim Research Program
project -- was envisioned and proposed by Jameson (PI) and her IMBS colleagues Komarova,
Narens and Wodarz to the National Science Foundation (entitled “New methods for investigating

11
the formation of individual and shared concepts and their dynamic dispersion across related
societies”) and was one of three grants successively classified as “Highly Competitive”  and was
granted a fully funded award. This latter project will greatly extend and expand on Jameson’s
ongoing work on the Mesoamerican Color Survey database, which in addition to basic research
results in the area, will make available to the public for the first time one of the most extensive
public archives on color categorization data across ethnolinguistic groups.

Jack Xin

The first project is on sparse representation of high dimensional data in redundant basis arising in
imaging and compressed sensing using difference of L1 and L2 norms techniques to enhance
robustness and sparsity beyond convex methods using L1 norm. An application in physical
science is recovering high frequency information of sparse signals from low frequency
measurements to gain resolution in imaging (so called super-resolution in geo-science and
astronomy). The second project is on blind and partially blind source separation of mixture
signals and images (`blind' refers to no knowledge of the mixing conditions) based on geometric
and optimization methods. Applications include removing out of focus blur in images, and
detecting chemical threats in food and drinks. The third project is on analysis/computation of
turbulent flame speeds in level-set Hamilton-Jacobi equations and advection-reaction-diffusion
equations related to the understanding of how fast fires spread or quench in volume preserving
flows (liquid combustion in the engine). When the flows become chaotic (disordered), enhanced
propagation speeds sustain even as molecular diffusion goes down to zero. Such residual transport
phenomenon may not exist when the flow patterns are ordered with closed streamlines.

Jack Yellott

During the past year I continued working on the same problem that has preoccupied me for the
past few years: altering printed characters to overcome presbyopic visual defocus. I have a perfect
theory for the case of white characters on a black background, but I had been hung up for some
time on the problem of how to represent the contrast of black characters on white backgrounds--
ordinary printed text, in other words. Finally this past year I solved that problem when I realized
that for such characters there is normally a maximum possible value of white (i.e., the page with
no ink--nothing the printer can do can make the page brighter. When that assumption is
formalized, it turns out that the limits on improving the retinal image contrast of defocused black-
on-white characters by typograaphical means are exactly the same as for white-on- black. So now
I have a complete theory, and I only need to summon up the energy to write the paper I've been
working on for some eight years.

Hongkai Zhao

My research focus is on developing efficient computational models and methods for problems
arising from science and engineering. For examples, (1) geometric modeling of 3D shapes and
surfaces, (2) data analysis, such as understanding geometric structure and statistical inferences
12
from big data; (3) medical imaging, such as cone beam CT reconstruction using low-rank matrix
factorization; (4) numerical simulation of physical and biological systems.

Social and Economic Phenomena

Bill Branch

In a recent paper, “Financial Frictions, the Housing Market and Unemployment,” joint with
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Guillaume Rocheteau, we construct a model that can explain both
U.S. house prices and unemployment rates over the period 1996-2010. Over this period, there
was a large run up in house prices followed by a large crash during the Great Recession.
Concurrently with the housing bubble and crash, there was a steady decline in unemployment
rates followed by a steep increase. Our explanation for the joint movement of housing prices and
unemployment comes from the use of home equity loans to finance consumption. Higher house
prices have two effects: they relax borrowing constraints on home equity loans and, thereby,
increase the demand for goods which leads firms to expand business activity and create new jobs.
A crash has the opposite effect. We find that our model can quantitatively explain both the
housing crash and the unemployment during the Great Recession.

Jan K. Brueckner

In a recent paper, two coauthors and I studied the forces that spurred use of alternative mortgage
products (AMPs) during the housing boom. AMPs include interest-only mortgages and option
adjustable-rate mortgages (the latter type allows payment of less than the interest due, leading to
negative amortization). These contracts are characterized by “backloading” of payments, which
delays repayment of principal, and this feature heightens default risk by raising the balance due on
the mortgage at any time relative to a traditional contract. A theoretical model shows that, when
future house-price expectations become more favorable, reducing the likelihood of negative
equity and thus concerns about default, mortgage choices shift toward AMPs. The paper’s
empirical work confirms this prediction by showing that an increase in past house-price
appreciation, which captures more favorable expectations for the future, raises the market share of
alternative mortgages. In addition, the paper tests the fundamental presumption that backloaded
mortgages are more likely to default, finding support for this view.

Jean-Paul Carvalho

I received three requests to submit revisions from journals (two of which have been completed):

Education, Social Mobility and Religious Movements: The Islamic Revival in Egypt (with
Christine Binzel). R&R, The Economic Journal.

Muslim societies have been reshaped in recent decades by an Islamic revival. This paper focuses
on Egypt—the epicenter of the movement in the Arab world. We document a contemporaneous
13
decline in social mobility among educated youth. We then develop a model to show how an
unexpected drop in social mobility combined with inequality can produce a religious revival, led
by the educated middle class. The principal idea is that religion helps individuals to cope with
unfulfilled aspirations by adjusting their expectations-based reference point. By raising
aspirations, economic development may make societies more not less prone to religious revivals.

Coordination and Culture. R&R, Economic Theory

Culture constrains individual choice, rendering certain actions impermissible or taboo. While
cultural constraints may regulate behavior within a group, they can have a pernicious effect in
multicultural societies, inhibiting the emergence of unified social conventions. We analyze
interactions between members of two cultural groups who are matched to play a coordination
game with an arbitrary number of actions. Due to cultural constraints, miscoordination prevails
despite strong incentives to coordinate behavior. In an application to identity-based conflict,
exclusive ethnic and religious identities persist in poorer and more unequal societies. Occasional
violation of cultural constraints and own-group interactions can make miscoordination even more
stable.

Resisting Education (with Mark Koyama). R&R, Journal of Urban Economics.

Oppositional attitudes to education tend to emerge amidst rising returns to education. We show
that this is a natural outcome of the interaction between economic and cultural incentives for
education. When education makes individuals more receptive to mainstream culture, minority
groups underinvest in education as a form of cultural resistance. Low-ability minority types do
not just fail to increase educational attainment in response to a rising skill premium, but reduce
education—a phenomenon we callresisting education. This amplifies income inequality. Thus
technological progress, globalization and anti-discrimination policies are linked to oppositional
attitudes to education.

In addition, I presented results from a new paper titled “Identity-Based Organizations”, which is
in preparation.

Identity-Based Organizations
Identity formation is an inescapably social process entailing negative externalities and free rider
problems. Identity-based organizations emerge to solve these problems. We show that
organizations at high tension with mainstream society can sustain higher levels of strictness and
are more successful at identity formation. Competition moderates organizations under certain
conditions. In other cases, competition can lead to forms of escalating extremism. Success in
identity formation tends to be self-undermining leading to various types of cyclic dynamics. We
apply these insights to the case of religious extremism in the Middle East.

14
Steve Frank

Many of the great principles of science can be described as changes in populations. In biology, the
force of natural selection increases the frequency of favored types. In mechanics, physical forces
alter the locations and energies in populations of particles. This study shows that different
problems of population dynamics often have the same underlying form: a balance between direct
and inertial forces. The direct forces are defined by holding constant the frame of reference in
which change is observed. The inertial forces arise by change in the frame of reference caused by
the direct forces and the varying perspective of measurement. This article unifies and extends
biological and physical theory through the separation of direct and inertial forces in populations.
A bit more detail from the abstract: I develop a framework for interpreting the forces that act on
any population described by frequencies. The conservation of total frequency, or total probability,
shapes the characteristics of force. I begin with Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection.
That theorem partitions the total evolutionary change of a population into two components. The
first component is the partial change caused by the direct force of natural selection, holding
constant all aspects of the environment. The second component is the partial change caused by the
changing environment. I demonstrate that Fisher's partition of total change into the direct force of
selection and the forces from the changing environmental frame of reference is identical to
d'Alembert's principle of mechanics, which separates the work done by the direct forces from the
work done by the inertial forces associated with the changing frame of reference. In d'Alembert's
principle, there exist inertial forces from a change in the frame of reference that exactly balance
the direct forces. I show that the conservation of total probability strongly shapes the form of the
balance between the direct and inertial forces. I then use the strong results for conserved
probability to obtain general results for the change in any system quantity, such as biological
fitness or energy. Those general results derive from simple coordinate changes between
frequencies and system quantities. Ultimately, d'Alembert's separation of direct and inertial forces
provides deep conceptual insight into the interpretation of forces and the unification of disparate
fields of study.

Marek Kaminski

The special report “Voting methods for single-member districts and their properties” (see below)
was prepared for the President-elect of Poland Andrzej Duda, the main Prime Minister candidate
of the biggest party Beata Szydło, the leader of the third-largest party Pawel Kukiz, and several
electoral-law political advisors. It was already presented to and discussed with some of the
politicians; further meetings are scheduled for mid-July. The report evaluates different options for
electoral reform in the context of the forthcoming referendum on introducing single-member
districts and their political consequences. According to polls, the electoral reform is favored by
voters by an approximate margin of 70:20.

15
Igor Kopylov

First, I characterized a family of models for various framing effects, such as partition
dependence in probabilistic beliefs and comparative ignorance in ambiguity attitudes. My models
allow one to derive subjective beliefs, sets of beliefs, or variational costs separately for each
suitably defined context. I defined the choice context in several different ways. The main two
cases violate monotonicity and transitivity respectively, but not both together.

Second, I studied a new model of updating where the unique subjective belief and the set of all
possible priors are updated separately via Bayesian or non-Bayesian rules. For example, the
updated set of possible priors may discard all beliefs that assign the new information probability
below a given threshold.

Third, in a revision of my joint paper with J. Noor, we have modeled agents who exhibit lack of
resolve as in the ``good intentions lead to hell’’ pattern. More formally, agents may succumb to
temptations, but only when they are accompanied by normatively appealing alternatives. In this
case, agents fail to avoid these temptations through previous commitment.
Simon Levin

My research program has long been directed to understanding the dynamics of biological diversity
at all levels, from the molecular diversity of diseases to the diversity of global ecological and
cultural systems; the importance of that diversity for humans; and the interactions of that diversity
with human social and ecological systems. Some highlights of the past year are discussed below,
organized according to the work on biodiversity, on infectious diseases, and on the dynamics of
coupled ecological and economic systems. References listed refer to papers in the following list
of publications.

The Dynamics of Biodiversity and Biocomplexity

My efforts on this topic have involved understanding the spatial dynamics of ecological pattern,
including collective movement, the consequences for biodiversity, and the mechanisms
underlying the robustness of ecosystems. Primary recent foci have been on semi-arid systems and
marine communities, and more generally on collective motion and the robustness of ecosystems.

I have been working for several years with former graduate student Carla Staver (Yale University)
on bistability in savanna-forest systems. Our earlier models, with Sally Archibald (University of
the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), reproduced observed patterns from MODIS
remote-sensing data sets, and were based on phenomenological representations of influence of
grass cover on fire frequency. To provide a more mechanistic basis, with former postdoctoral
fellow Emmanuel Schertzer (University of Paris, VI), Staver and I have now published a spatially
explicit model of fire spread that justifies the earlier representation (Schertzer et al., 2015). We
continue to work on this topic, with a variety of collaborators, and I expect this to remain a core of
my research for the next several years.

16
In related work, with colleague Corina Tarnita (Princeton University), former postdoctoral fellow
Juan Bonachela (University of Strathclyde, Scotland), and others, I published a paper in Science
on the role of termites in maintaining the robustness of dryland vegetation systems, expanding on
earlier models by others of vegetation and water dynamics that only explain a portion of observed
pattern (Bonachela et. al, 2015). Former graduate students Ryan Chisholm (National University
of Singapore), Duncan Menge (Columbia University), and I, with others, also demonstrated the
potential for alternative stable states in nutrient-rich grasslands (Chisholm et al., 2015). And
finally, in this area, Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe (Princeton University), former postdoctoral fellow
Sally Thompson (University of California, Berkeley), and I continued our work on the potential
spread of the important plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi under climate change; such
spread would have major impacts on plant communities (Thompson et al., 2014).

In the vegetation systems, as well as marine and other systems, an extremely fruitful recent trend
has been in the development of trait-based models that allow the interfacing of ecological and
evolutionary perspectives. I have been involved in such work in marine systems for many years,
largely with former postdoctoral fellow Christopher Klausmeier and Elena Litchman (both at
Michigan State University), and we have a survey paper, with Juan Bonachela and Kyle Edwards
(University of Hawai’i, Mãnoa), in review in the Journal of Plankton Research.

In recent years, I have been involved in extending these efforts to terrestrial systems, especially on
the topic of nitrogen fixation, together with Lars Hedin (Princeton University) and Duncan
Menge. The latest effort in this direction is with Hedin, former postdoc Efrat Shefer (Hebrew
University of Jerusalem), and Sarah Batterman (Princeton University); a paper on this topic also is
in review. Finally on this topic, former graduate student Caroline Farrior (NIMBioS), colleagues
Steve Pacala (Princeton University) and Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe and I, with others, have been
investigating the evolutionary ecology of plant traits. Most recently, we showed that decreased
water limitation under elevated carbon dioxide increases the potential for carbon sinks, a result of
major importance for addressing the impact of climate change (Farrior et al., 2015).

Another major effort in ecosystem modeling has been a continuing collaboration with Adam
Martiny (University of California, Irvine) and others on the dynamics of marine ecosystems, and
in particular patterns of element ratios, complementing the work with Klausmeier and others.
Most recently, we published a paper in PNAS on the impact of ocean phytoplankton diversity on
the uptake of phosphate (Lomas et al., 2014). We also began investigation of the role of viruses
in structuring these communities (Bonachela and Levin, 2014), and continued our work on
incorporating flexible nutrient uptake into models of plankton communities.

Search and collective navigation have also been continuing themes in my work. Along these
lines, with former student Andrew Berdahl (Santa Fe Institute) and others, I published two papers,
one on collective navigation in salmonids, and the other on the interplay between dispersal and
local adaptation (Berdahl et al., 2014; 2015). Related work in this area has explored search
(Salvador et al., 2014), decision-making (De Froment, Rubenstein and Levin, 2014) and
17
especially collective decision-making (Torney et al., 2014) in other animals, in the belief that this
can inform the study of decision making in human societies. Carter et al. (2015) applies models
of movement to an applied issue, that of the conservation and management of tiger populations.

One of the more exciting recent developments in ecological theory has been its application to
microbial systems, from the gut microbiota to bacterial biofilms to the understanding of
cooperation, public goods, and multicellularity (Levin, 2004). I have been involved in such work
for several years, and find exciting mutualism between it and my work on larger-scale
ecosystems. In other work, Corina Tarnita and I have been investigating various aspects of
pattern and multicellularity through diverse collaborations. Most notable, (Tarnita et al., 2015),
was our demonstration of the maintenance of genotypic and phenotypic diversity (through bet-
hedging) in the cellular slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum, showing that individuals that do
not participate in slug formation play an important role in the robustness of the slime mold. Work
continues in this and related area with a variety of collaborators.

A very hot topic in ecological theory, as well as for other systems, has been the potential for these
systems to flip from one basin of attraction to another, analogous to phase transitions in physics. I
have, over the past decade, worked on such issues in financial systems (with Robert May
(University of Oxford) and George Sugihara (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of
California, San Diego), and more recently with Andrew Lo (MIT)), international relations (Frank
et al., 2004), and ecological systems (for example, the work described above with Staver, Menge,
Chisholm and others). Most models investigating these themes have been deterministic, so with
Juan Bonachela and others, I published a paper in PNAS investigating the role of stochastic effects
in smoothing potentially catastrophic transitions in a variety of systems (Villa Martin et al., 2015).

The Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Over the years, my research on this topic has ranged from molecular interactions between
pathogens and hosts, including the interaction of the immune system with pathogens, to the
epidemiology of infectious diseases and the public-health consequences. I have worked on
influenza, HIV, malaria, Ebola and other diseases (see for example, most recently, Klein et al.,
2014; Castillo-Chavez et al., 2015). In the past few years I have focused on the interface between
the dynamics of disease and management aspects, especially with respect to the rise of antibiotic
resistance. To this end, working with collaborators at Arizona State, Yale and elsewhere, I have
completed and/or published a series of papers contributing to the development of the new
discipline of economic epidemiology (Perrings et al., 2014; Morin et al., 2014; Morin et al.,
2015). The classical theory of epidemics has represented one of the most successful applications
of mathematics to biology, and has had a deep influence on management. But that theory has
almost entirely ignored the utility-based actions of humans, for example to avoid contacts during
an epidemic. Incorporation of such complications has been the goal of our work, and changes the
predictions of epidemiological models, as well as recommended practice, in fundamental ways.

18
As regards antibiotic resistance, which is one of the greatest contemporary threats to public health
and surgical protocols, I have been working with economist Ramanan Laxminarayan (The Center
for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, Washington D.C.) and others over the past decade to
identify sources of problems, and suggest ways to ameliorate the threat. In the past year plus,
working with postdoctoral fellow Thomas van Boeckel (now at Zurich University), with Bryan
Grenfell (Princeton University), and with others, we have published two high profile papers (Van
Boeckel et al., 2014; 2015, in Lancet Infectious Diseases and PNAS) documenting global trends in
antibiotic use, country by country. Together, these provide crucial information regarding one of
the greatest public health threats of our time, and a central common-pool resource problem.

The Interactions Between Ecological Systems and Socioeconomic Systems, and the
Management of Natural Resources

In this area, I have been primarily interested in how to develop cooperative agreements to deal
with public goods and common-pool resources, and what can be learned from natural systems.
More generally, I have focused on the challenges of managing complex adaptive systems. Last
year, I reported a completed review paper on the latter topic, and that paper (Arrow, Ehrlich and
Levin, 2014) has now appeared in a book published by Springer-Verlag, and honoring Partha
Dasgupta (University of Cambridge, UK).

I have been particularly interested in how global society can deal with public goods and common-
pool resources (Levin, PNAS, 2014; Tavoni and Levin, 2014), from water and fisheries to
biodiversity, public health, and the global environment. Three active research projects, NSF
grants with former postdoctoral fellows Malin Pinsky (Rutgers University) and James Watson
(Stockholm Resilience Centre), and a Nordic grant with Nils Stenseth and former postdoctoral
fellow Anne Maria Eikeset (both at the University of Oslo, Norway), have supported some of the
work above, and will result in several publications in the coming year.

Most recently, I have been working with Jorge Pacheco (University of Minho, Portugal), students
Philip Hannam (Princeton University) and Vitor Vasconceles (University of Minho, Portugal),
and others on a variety of schemes, including insurance arrangements (Pacheco et al., in review,
2015), polycentric approaches to climate change agreements (Hannam et al., in review, 2015), and
other efforts (Vasconceles et al., 2014). (See also Tavoni and Levin, 2014). I have further been
working with former mentees Maja Schlueter (Stockholm Resilience Centre) and Alessandro
Tavoni (London School of Economics), current student Andrew Tilman (Princeton University)
and others to extend our earlier work on endogenous mechanisms (social norms) for maintaining
cooperation in dealing with common-pool resources. Finally, with Tasos Xepapadeas (Athens
University of Economics and Business), I have been exploring the neglected area of spatial
heterogeneity in environmental economics (Levin and Xepapedeas, in review, 2015). My work in
this area has been growing, and I expect it to remain a major part of my work in the coming years.

19
Exploratory Work

The three categories already discussed form the core of my research program, but I have always
found it profitable to explore new directions in order to keep my research program fresh and
growing. In 2014-15 this included a paper in PNAS (Lei et al., 2014), modifying a framework
Kenneth Arrow (Stanford University) and I applied to the intergenerational transfer of resources
in human societies and extending it to understand the epigenetic transfer of information by stem
cells. Another example from the past year involves a comparison of the consequences of different
assumptions about the infection cycle of marine viruses, key players in understanding the
dynamics of marine ecosystems (Bonachela and Levin, 2014). Finally, I have been enthusiastic
about using lessons from evolutionary biology to guide the management of risks in societies, from
financial systems to international relations. To this end, Joshua Ramo (Kissinger Associates) and
I have organized a series of meetings over the last several years bringing together leaders from the
complex-systems and international-relations communities. In the most recent example, I
organized a workshop at IIASA in Austria, which led to a Perspective in PNAS during the past
year (Frank et al., 2014). Robert Keohane (Princeton University), a leader in political science,
and I have organized a follow-up meeting to be held at Princeton University in October 2015,
focusing on what evolution can teach us about international relations.

Natalia Komarova

The fascinating ability of humans to modify the linguistic input and “create” a language has been
widely discussed. In the work of Elissa Newport and colleagues, it has been demonstrated that
both children and adults have some ability to process inconsistent linguistic input and “improve”
it by making it more consistent. One example is the fascinating study of the performance of a 7-
year deaf boy Simon, who mastered the American Sign Language (ASL) by learning it from his
parents, both of whom were imperfect speakers of ASL. In a number of papers, Newport and
colleagues studied artificial miniature language acquisition from an inconsistent source. It was
shown that (i) children are better at language regularization than adults, and that (ii) adults can
also regularize, depending on the structure of the input. Together with students Yelena
Mandelshtam and Jacquelyn Rische we created a number of learning algorithms of the
reinforcement-learning type, which exhibits patterns and suggest a way to explain them. It turns
out that in order to capture the differences between children's and adults' learning patterns, we
need to introduce a certain asymmetry in the learning algorithm. Namely, we have to assume that
the reaction of the learners differs depending on whether or not the source's input coincides with
the learner's internal hypothesis. We interpret this result in the context of a different reaction of
children and adults to positive and negative evidence. We propose that a possible mechanism that
contributes to the children's ability to regularize an inconsistent input is related to their heightened
sensitivity to positive evidence rather than the (implicit) negative evidence. In our model,
regularization comes naturally as a consequence of a stronger reaction of the children to evidence
supporting their preferred hypothesis. In adults, their ability to adequately process implicit
negative evidence prevents them from regularizing the inconsistent input, resulting in a weaker
degree of regularization.
20
Over the last year I have also worked on several topics of mathematical biology. This includes
stochastic dynamics of stem cells; applying methods of evolutionary biology to optimizing
treatment of the blood cancer CLL (chronic lymphocytic leukemia); and investigating the role of
spatial constraints in crossing fitness valleys in evolutionary dynamics.

Michael McBride

Graduate student Garret Ridinger and I conducted an experimental study of the effect of monetary
incentives on the ability to read others' emotions. Monetary incentives hindered females' ability
while bolstering males' ability. This finding contributes to our understanding of gender
differences in participation in competition and life outcomes, including wages.

Cailin O’Conner

I recently finished a cluster of papers which applied the same game theoretic model - the sim-max
game - to several interrelated problems. This game is similar to the signaling game introduced by
David Lewis in that two actors transfer information about the world. The difference is that the
world states in the sim-max game bear relationships to one another. One can think of this as
modeling properties like color, temperature, sweetness, length, or really anything that varies by
degree. I employed these games to explain the evolution of linguistic vagueness, linguistic
ambiguity, perceptual categories, and learning generalization.

More recently I’ve worked on several projects. The first involves using game theory and
evolutionary game theory to understand why certain academic fields have difficulty recruiting and
retaining gender and racial minorities. The second explores the evolution of moral emotions and
guilt in particular. The third considers where and when the methodology of game theory is
problematic in biology. The fourth looks at how various academic groups can be disadvantaged
when bargaining over collaborative projects.

I am also part of a group at UCI using methods from experimental economics to explore
philosophical questions. To date we have run several experiments on the emergence of
meaning… The group consists of Simon Huttegger, myself, Justin Bruner, Hannah Rubin, and
Lindley Slipetz. Our first paper `David Lewis in the Lab: An experimental study of signaling
conventions' is forthcoming in the journal Synthese and currently available online. We have a
working paper of our second experiment titled, 'Communication Without the Cooperative
Principle: A signaling experiment' which is available upon request.

Dale Poirier

I am an econometrician mostly working in the area of Bayesian statistics. Over the pastyear I have
been writing a monograph entitled Mostly Harmless Bayesian Econometrics. One chapter,
“Implicit Distributional Assumptions,” will be presented at the Econometric Society World
Congress to be held in Montreal, August 2015.
21
Don Saari

It is surprising how notions developed to address problems from the social and behavioral
sciences can provide a guideline for addressing compelling puzzles from the physical sciences.
But, this was one of the topics explored during the past year. In particular, Arrow’s theorem has
been treated as a roadblock for progress in that it is often described as asserting that there are no
fair voting rules for three or more candidates. But, by examining the result from the perspective
of the reductionist philosophy, it becomes clear that Arrow’s result reflects weaknesses of a
methodology – the reductionist method applied to paired comparisons—rather than being a
statement about all voting rules.

Once this perspective is recognized, it provides a way to understand a wide selection of other
puzzles. One, which I have explored with Bernie Grofman and I reported the basic results at a
March IMBS conference, involves the well known complexities associated with allocation
methods such as the one used to assign Congressional seats to states based on population figures.
Another puzzle concerns the compelling mystery from astronomy of dark matter. By using
lessons learned from analyzing Arrow’s Theorem, it became clear that many of the conclusions
associated with dark matter are highly questionable. Some of this is explained in an invited
feature article for the British Journal of Political Science and described in several lectures,
including my January 2015 Porter Lecture at the annual meetings of the mathematical societies.

Other work emphasized the structure of binary comparisons. This work led to a new way to
analyze some of the claims made by the group in the cognitive sciences promoting “quantum
thinking.”

Carole Uhlaner

Much of my IMBS relevant work this past year has been devoted to developing my "relational
goods" approach to understanding the paradox of the collective action problem -- namely, that in
the presence of the logic of free-riding, people nonetheless do participate in politics. One specific
instance to which I have been devoting more attention is that of participation in recent
revolts. There is a widespread academic and popular understanding that social media played an
important role. However, that mechanism of their role is typically glossed over. The relational
goods approach provides an explanation of the process whereby the social media contributed to
encouraging collective action.

Doug White

Working with primatologist C. C. Grueter relying on the standard cross-cultural sample (Murdock
and White) with variables contributed by White and others, and primate field observation, we
reconceived for early humans core disincentives for hostile intergroup relations, including
economic interdependence (trade), and absence of patrilocality with external war, which mollifies
internal war between communities, controlling overall for significant language co-phylogeny.
22
Intermarriage and other variables did not have explanatory power in curtailing war. The analysis
is complemented with an exploration of the evolutionary factors underlying elementary forms of
meta-group organization in non-human primates.

Research Seminars and Activities

The research activities of the Institute often result in graduate research seminars. Among
those this year:

Bill Batchelder, Mathematical Models of Cognitive Processes

Bill Batchelder, Special Topics: Stochastic Models
Carter Butts, Network Theory
David Eppstein, Seminar in Algorithms and Theoretical Computer Science
Marek Kaminski, Introduction to Game Theory
Marek Kaminiski, Introduction to Voting Theory
Robin Keller, Decision Theory
Robin Keller, Decision Analysis
Simon Huttegger, de Finetti's Philosophy of Probability
Cailin O’Coonor, Philosophy of Biology:OJ
Lisa Pearl, Computational Models of Cognition
Louis Narens, Don Saari, and Brian Skyrms, Social Dynamics
James Weatherall, Foundations of Quantum Field Theory (I & II)
Penelope Maddy, two-quarter seminar on Primary and Secondary properties, a crucial distinction
in the early modern period, when philosophers were first reacting to the Scientific Revolution.

Color and Cognition Reading Group: For Spring quarter 2014, Kimberly Jameson resumed
(with Christian Herrera, Cognitive Sciences Graduate Student, co-organizing) the popular Color
and Cognition Reading Group. This is an active multidisciplinary group of faculty, students and
postdocs that meets weekly, or bi-monthly, on topics related to the mathematical modeling and
empirical investigations of color cognition and perception.

Computational Models of Language (CoLa) Reading Group

http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~lpearl/colareadinggroup/

The Social Network Research Group: (SNRG) is a weekly meeting of researchers in the social
network area. The SNRG welcomes discussions and/or presentations of current theoretical,
methodological, and/or empirical work on or of relevance to the study of social structure.
Discussion of “early phase” research and preliminary findings are especially welcomed, as are
presentations by students and newcomers to the field

UCI Social Network Research Group http://lakshmi.calit2.uci.edu/cnra/?page_id=205

Social Dynamics and Complexity Research Group http://escholarship.org/uc/imbs_socdyn

23
III. GRADUATE TRAINING

A. Ph.D. Students

Louis Narens is the Director of the MBS graduate program. Others on the graduate
committee who assist Professor Narens are Professors Marek Kaminski and Michael McBride.
Working with the faculty of the Institute are 9 Ph.D. students, of whom 1 graduated this academic
year. We are admitting 3 new MBS students fall quarter.

The following is our current roster of students enrolled in the Ph.D. program in
Mathematical Behavioral Sciences during the current academic year. They are listed in Appendix
F.

Kalin Agrawal
Calvin Cochran
Steven Doubleday
Santiago Guisasola
Lisa Guo
William Leibzon
*Tom McIntee
Bahattin (Tolga) Oztan
Dan Wolf
*Graduated in 2014-2015
B. Graduate Activities

While the formal part of our graduate program is small, the actual impact on the UCI
graduate program is more extensive. This is because several graduate students from other
programs participate on a regular basis with our weekly Friday lecture section, our Tuesday night
open discussions, and our annual graduate conference. This past year the IMBS graduate students
organized student meetings with weekly colloquia speakers. This gives students an opportunity to
interact and network with professors. One of the goals is to gain insight into how students
perceive IMBS and how to facilitate more involvement of the social science student body.

C. Weekly Research Presentations

Tuesday Evening Discussion

IMBS graduate student Steve Doubleday organized an hour long, Tuesday evenings, 6:00
– 7:00 p.m., discussion group for faculty and students. The schedule below illustrates the topics
discussed:

Date Presenter Topic

October 14 Dan Wolf, MBS Contests and Conflict and their
and Consequences
Steve Doubleday, MBS Rules and Human Judgement
24
October 21 Tomas McIntee, MBS Emergence of complexity and how
such topic as chaos theory, power
law and even mandelbrot fractals
may ultimately be related to it
October 28 Mac Strelioff, Cog Sci Neural mechanism of decoy effect
and
Michael Sacks, MBS Information and knowledge: the
impact on modeling
November 4 William Leibzon, MBS What is complexity, and what is
intelligence
November 18 Steve Doubleday, MBS Long-standing ideas with what I've
learned more recently: cognitive
science findings, and some history
of the physical sciences. Are we as
effective we should be in the Social
Sciences?
December 3 Ani Wodeyar, Cog Neur Theoretic Measures of Neural
Connectivity
December 9 Steve Doubleday, MBS Feedback from previous week’s
discussion on effective social
science
January 6 Mac Strelioff, Cog Sci An experiment addressing two
cognitive explanations of consumer
context effects
January 13 Steve Doubleday, MBS What multiple studies across
disciplines might look like (game
theory, cog sci, linguistics,
sociology, organizational theory).
January 20 Togla Oztan, MBS A cross-cultural study of structured
kin avoidance behavior.
February 3 Alexander, User Experience (UX) research in
HCI

February 10 William Leibzon, MBS Origins of scale free and small

world properties of human social
networks
March 10 Bennett Holman, LPS Exploration by industrial selection

Friday Lunch Seminar

This IMBS activity was coordinated by Stergios Skaperdas and Jean-Paul Carvalho and
directed by graduate student and IMBS participant Michael Sacks. Weekly research meetings
give space for graduate students and faculty to gather on Fridays from Noon- 1:00 p.m. in the
Luce Conference Room to introduce research they are working on. The presentations are
followed by discussion periods afterwards. Below is the list of the presentations for the year:

25
 Friday Lunch Seminar Schedule
Date Presenter Topic

October 1 Susan Finkbeiner, “Deconstructing visual signals in social butterflies”

Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

October 17 Ian Finn, Economics “Ties that bind: the political economy of coerced
labor”
October 31 Roger Battle, Civil and Environmental “Online mechanism design to urban traffic
Engineering operations”

November 7 Jen Briner, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology “Parasitic manipulation of host behavior: STDs
and sex drive
in Drosophila melanogaster”

November Ashley Thomas, Cognitive Sciences “Reward allocation in preschoolers”

14

November Jerrod Anderson, Economics “Religious Schisms”

21
December 5 Santiago Guisasola, MBS “Talkin’ About Creativity”

December Ryan Kendall, Ph.D., Economics “Experimental Economics”

12
January 16 Hau Liu, Ph.D, Civil and Environmental “A New Data Mining Technique and its
Engineering Application on Water
Resource Problems in California”
January 23 Kimberly Jameson, Associate Project Scientist, “Do you see what I see? Investigating
IMBS interpersonal comparisons
of color experience”
January 30 Andrew Colopy, Political Science “The Political Economy of Monopolistic
Competition Under
Asset Inequality”
February 6 Matthew Kidder, Economics “The Treatment Effect of Exporting: New
Approach and New
Evidence”
February 27 Emily Smith, Sociology “Multiplexity, Bridging, and Granovetter’s
Entailment: Testing
the Structure of US Job Lead Ties”
April 10 William Leibzon, IMBS “Social Network of Software Developers in
analysis of Open Source
Projects Collaboration based on GitHub social
data”
April 17 Michael Birnbaum, Professor of Psychology, “Empirical evaluation of third-generation
Cal State Fullerton prospect theory for
the endowment effect and preference reversals”
May 1 Igor Kopylov, Associate Professor, Economics “Costly Ambiguity and Variation AL Utility”

26
 D. Duncan Luce Graduate Student Conference

IMBS sponsors a yearly graduate student conference where students in the MBS program,
as well as other students whose research interests are related to MBS, present their research. The
graduate organizers of the 13th Annual conference were Santiago Guisasola, Tomas McIntee, and
Michael Sacks.
Luce Graduate Student Conference
Friday, May 29, 2019
9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m., SSPA 2112

Session  I:    Social  Chairs   Chair:  Tomas  McIntee  

9:00   Paul  Lombardi,  Economics  
"Forecasting  School  Attendance  with  Income-­‐based  Shocks”  
9:30   Tolga  Otzan,  IMBS  
"Networks  of  Kin  Avoidance”  
10:00   Lisa  Guo,  IMBS  
"A  Dual-­‐Process  Model  of  Framing  Effects  in  Risky  Choice”  
10:30   Mid-­‐session  break  

Session  II:  Generalized  Networks         Chair:  Michael  Sacks  

10:40   Francis  Lee,  Sociology  
"Inferring  the  state  of  an  unknown  network  by  integrating  error-­‐prone  measurements  from  multiple  
sources.”  
11:10   Dan  Wolf,  IMBS  
"Urbanization  and  Liberalization"  
11:40 Michael Bellato,  Cognitive  Sciences
"Differentiating  Endogenous  Auditory  Event  Related  Potentials  Related  Top-­‐Down  Feature  
Selectivity”  
12:10   Lunch  

Session  III:  Simulation  from  music  to  individuals   Chair:  Michael  Sacks  
1:10   Calvin  Cochran,  IMBS  
"Preliminary  thoughts  on  the  dynamics  of  a  trading  card  game  "
1:40 William Leibzon, IMBS
"Non-­‐Euclidean  Game  Theory"  
2:10   Santiago  Guisasola,  IMBS  
"Listening  in  Improvisation:  Experimental  Music  &  Science"  
2:40       Inter-­‐session  break  

Session  IV:                 Chair:  Santiago  Guisasola  

3:00   Cole  Williams,  Economics  
"Endogenous  Group  Identification"  
3:30   Tomas  McIntee,  IMBS  
"Generalized  Duverger  Dynamics"  
4:00   Jen  Briner,  Ecology  &  Evolutionary  Biology  
"Strategic  reproductive  effort  in  Drosophila  melanogaster:  A  life  history  perspective”  
4:30   Closing  remarks  with  cake  and  wine  reception  

27
 E. Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award

Each year, the IMBS presents the Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award to a graduate
student for the best dissertation that uses mathematics to develop conceptual advances for issues
coming from the social and behavioral sciences. Going beyond the use of mathematics for
computational purposes, the intent is to award a dissertation that uses concepts from mathematics
to reach new conclusions. The prize is $1,500. Last year the committee presented Heidi
Tucholski, a 2014 graduate of MBS, for her dissertation, “Incentivized Decisions in the U.S. Air
Force: Stepping Back to look at the Big Picture”.

This year the committee selected two dissertations and co-awards were presented to
Tomas McIntee, a 2015 graduate of MBS, for his dissertation, “Geometic Ways of Understanding
Voting Problems,” and Blake Allison, a 2015 graduate of Economics, for his dissertation, “Essays
on Competition and Conflict.” Both McIntee and Allison have accepted positions that have them
heading east. Tomas McIntee, who received his doctorate in mathematical behavioral sciences,
has taken a position at Virginia Tech. Blake Allison, a Ph.D. recipient in economics, heads to
Georgia’s Emory University as an assistant professor of economics.

CONGRATULATIONS!

IV. COMMUNICATION

A. IMBS Conferences

The director’s statement expanded on the areas of interest for this year’s research
conferences. We are providing the following conference agendas to give a more in-depth look at
the scope of our presentations.

28
29
30
31
 B. Conferences/Seminars Organized By IMBS Members

Carter Butts

Co-organizer and instructor, 2015 statnet workshops (in conjunction with Sunbelt 2015), June
2015, Brighton, UK.

I ran a four day lab rotation workshop for students in the Chemistry and Materials
Physics (ChaMP) program. This entailed hands-on training in the use of Ising models,
exponential family random graph models (ERGMs), and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. E
Exercises included simulating the impact of alternative material structures on the properties of
ferromagnets, fitting and simulating ERGMs for social and other networks, and using ERGMs to
model hydrogen bond networks in liquid water, September 2014.

Jean-Paul Carvalho

Organizer, Workshop on the Economics of Religion and Culture, IMBS, 8 May 2015. Co-
organizer, “Theory, History and Development Seminar,” Department of Economics, Spring 2015.

Co-organizer, Friday Lunch Seminar, IMBS.

Faculty discussant, IRES Graduate Workshop, Chapman University.

David Eppstein

Program co-chair for SIAM Meeting on Algorithm Engineering & Experiments (ALENEX),
January 2015, San Diego.

Steering committee member for the International Symposium on Graph Drawing and for the
Symposium on Computational Geometry.

Simon Huttegger

Organizer, Workshop, "Topics in Inductive Logic" UC Irvine, March 2015.

L. Robin Keller

Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS: 50-Year Celebration Program Committee Meeting,

November 2014.

Decision Analysis Affinity Group (DAAG) Conference Steering Committee, Huntington Beach,
Spring 2015.
Louis Narens

Co-organizer, “Validation. What is it?” IMBS, February 2015.

Don Saari

Co-organized the “Conference Board of Math Sciences Forum: “First two years of college math.”
Washington DC, October 2014.

Organizer, “Validation. What is it?” IMBS conference, February 2015.

Organizer, “Behavioral Social Choice,” IMBS conference, March 2015.

James Weatherall

"Equivalent Theories," with H. Halvorson, M. McSweeney, and G. Valente, Princeton University,

March 2015.

“Third Annual Irvine-Pittsburgh-Princeton Conference on the Mathematical and Conceptual

Foundations of Physics,” with H. Halvorson, M. McSweeney, G. Valente, Princeton University,
March 2015.

Doug White

Assisted in the Santa Fe Institute Workshop, “Dynamics of Historical Empires” with Peter
Turchin, May 4 – 6, 2015.

C. Visitors

IMBS hosted Princeton Professor Simon Levin, Moffett Professor of Biology, Princeton
University during the academic year. His activities letter can be found in Appendix G.

Next year the Institute will again sponsor the visit of Professor Levin. In addition,
researcher Tim Satalich will continue work with Professor Kim Romney, Sean Tauber will
continue work with Project Scientist Kimberly Jameson, and Robert Forbes will continue work
with Professor Louis Narens.

D. IMBS Colloquia Series

During the academic year the Institute conducts a weekly colloquia series with speakers
from both inside as well as outside the Institute. For speakers outside California, we attempt,
insofar as possible, to coordinate their visit with other travel to California and to co-sponsor joint
talks with other research units. We distribute a relevant paper, when available, prior to each

33
colloquium. Most papers are also downloadable from the IMBS web site at
http://www.imbs.uci.edu/imbs_colloquia.

The following talks were presented in the IMBS Luce Conference Room during the 2014-
2015 academic year:

OCTOBER 9
EHTIBAR DZHAFAROV
Professor of Psychological Sciences
Purdue University
“Probabilistic Contextuality of Top Direct Cross-Influences: A General Theory”

OCTOBER 16
MICHAEL BIRNBAUM
Professor of Psychology
CSUF
“Testing a Class of Models that Includes Majority Rule and Regret Theories: Transitivity,
Recycling, and Restricted Branch Independence”

OCTOBER 23
JEAN-PIERRE FOUQUE
Director, Center for Financial Mathematics and Actuarial Research
UCSB
“Mean Field Games and Systemic Risk”

OCTOBER 30
JOHN DUFFY
Professor of Economics
UCI
“Stochastic Asymmetric Blotto Games: Theory and Experimental Evidence”

NOVEMBER 6
ZHILAN FENG
Co-sponsored with CAM
Professor of Mathematics
Purdue University
“Emerging disease dynamics in a model coupling with-in and between-host systems”

NOVEMBER 13
SEAN FULOP
Professor of Linguistics
Fresno State University
“Unification as a cognitive process for language acquisition”

NOVEMBER 20
JEAN-PAUL CARVALHO
Professor of Economics
34
 UCI
“Identity Based Organizations”

DECEMBER 4
CHRIS FIELDS
Independent Scientist, Sonoma, CA
“Quantum theory from a simple symmetry”

JANUARY 8
EDO GALLO
University Lecturer
University of Cambridge
“Efficiency and equilibrium in network games: An Experiment ”

JANUARY 22
JAY SIMON
Assistant Professor
Naval Post Graduate School
“Altruistic preference theory”

JANUARY 29
CARL BERGSTROM
Professor of Biology
University of Washington
“Optimal learning produces maladaptive anxiety in a subset of learners”

FEBRUARY 5
NATALIA KOMAROVA
Professor of Mathematics
UC Irvine
“Mathematical modeling of learning from an inconsistent source”

FEBRUARY 19
SIMON LEVIN
Professor of Biology
Princeton University
“Dealing with public goods and common-pool resources”

FEBRUARY 26
BILL BRANCH
Professor of Economics
UC Irvine
“Bounded Rationality and Trading Inefficiencies”

MARCH 5
IGOR KOPYLOV
Associate Professor of Economics

35
 UC Irvine
“Comparative Ignorance and Unawareness”

MARCH 12
ANDREW NOYMER
Associate Professor, Public Health
UC Irvine
“What levels of vaccination are necessary for measles control and eradication: A mathematical
model of measles transmission in developing countries”
Joint with Katelyn Corey (UCI)

APRIL 2
SIMONE CERREIA VIOGLIO
Assistant Professor
Università Bocconi
“Stochastic Dominance Analysis without the Independence Axiom”

APRIL 13
SVEN MÜLLER
Lecturer (Privatdoxent)
University of Hamburg
“OR Practice: Pilgrim Scheduling for Public Safety during the Hajj”

APRIL 23
IGOR KOPYLOV
Associate Professor
UC Irvine
“Comparative Ignorance and Unawareness”

APRIL 30
DRAZEN PRELEC
Professor
MIT
“Opinion aggregation when truth is unverifiable: The meta-prediction approach”

MAY 7
RAN ABRAMITZKY
Associate Professor
Stanford University
“Cultural Assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration”

MAY 14
MICHAEL ORRISON
Professor of Mathematics
Harvey Mudd College
“Generalized Condorcet Winners”

36
 MAY 21
SIMON HUTTEGGER
Associate Professor, Logic and Philosophy of Science
UC Irvine
“Inductive learning in small and large worlds”

JUNE 4
RALPH KEENEY
Research Professor Emeritus
Duke University
“Understanding and Applying the Group Decision Analysis Model”

V. BUDGET

A. Appropriations and Expenditures

Appropriations:

IMBS 2014-15 Budget allocation $ 90,000.00

IMBS 2013 Carry Forward $ 9,672.00
Visitor Allocation $ 26,245.00

Total budget for 2014-15: $125,917.00

Expenditures:

Salaries (Director, Administrator, Visitor) $ 70,363.10

School Administrative Support $ 7,500.00
Conference/Colloquia $ 23,853.65
IMBS Seed Grants $ 6,700.00
Supplies & Expenses $ 5,414.00
Graduate Student Support $ 12,086.89
Total Expenditures: $125,917.00

Closed fiscally solvent

37
 B. Extramural Funding Activity

GRANTS AWARDED AND ACTIVE:

IMBS faculty research was supported by research grants totaling $49,395,913 with
pending grants totaling $4,184,278. The following is a detailed breakdown of the extramural
funding:

William H. Batchelder

Source: John Templeton Foundation

Amount: $54,019
Award Period: 2014-2017
Title: A Formal Modeling Framework for the Dynamics of Subjective Well-being, including
Satisfaction, with Interpersonal Relationships
Role: Senior Researcher

Source: Renewal from Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE)
Amount: $75,000
Award Period: 2013-2014
Title: Work with Dr. Michael Young in the U.S. Research Lab at Wright Patterson Air Force
Base
Role: Research Fellowship

Pending
Source: NSF
Amount: $299,787
Award Period: 2015-2018
Title: Statistical Extensions and new Application of Cultural Consensus Theory
Role: PI (Pending)

Source: NSF
Amount: $99,860
Title: A Web Based Tool for Peer Evaluation
Role: Co-PI

Carter Butts

Source: ARO
Amount: $153,479
Award Period: 2014 – 2015
Title: Advancing Statistical Methods for Analysis of Multiple Networks
Role: PI

38
Source: NSF DMS
Amount: $1,308,441
Award Period: 2014 – 2018
Title: Bayesian Methods for Protein Fibrillization: Model Integration and Network Dynamics
Role: PI and Martin, Rachel W. (Co-PI)

Source: NSF IIS

Amount: $746,783
Award Period: 2013 – 2016
Title: BIGDATA: Small:DA DCM: Measurement and Learning Large-Scale Social Networks
Role: Co-PI and Anandkumar, Anima (PI)
Source: NIH NIDA
Amount: $402,820
Award Period: 2012 – 2015
Title: Cas Cascades of Network Structure and Function: Pathways to Adolescent Substance Use
Role: Co-Investigator with Lakon, Cynthia M. (PI); Butts, Carter T. (Co-Investigator); Hipp, John
R. (Co-Investigator); Timberlake, David (Co-Investigator)

Source: NIH NICHD

Amount: $3,092,315
Award Period: 2011 – 2016
Title: Statistical Methods for Network Epidemiology
Role: Co- Investigator with Morris, Martina (PI); Steven M. Goodreau (Co-Investigator); Hunter,
David (Co-Investigator); Bender-deMoll, Skye (Co-Investigator); and Krivitsky, Pavel (Co-
Investigator)

Source: NSF OIA

Amount: $2,152,181
Award Period: 2010 – 2016
Title: CDI-Type II: Topology and Function in Computer, Social and Biological Networks
Role: Co-PI with Markopoulou, Athina (PI); Przulj, Natasa (Co-PI)

Source: NSF CMMI

Amount: $404,948
Award Period: 2010 – 2014
Title: Collaborative Research: Informal Online Communication in Extreme Events: Content,
Dynamics, and Structure
Role: PI

Source: ONR
Amount: $5,381,300
Award Period: 2008 – 2015
Title: Scalable Methods for the Analysis of Network-based Data
39
Role: Co-PI with Smyth, Padhraic (PI); Eppstein, David (Co-PI); Goodrich, Michael T. (Co-PI);
Handcock, Mark S. (Co-PI); Hunter, David R. (Co-PI); Mount, David (Co-PI)

Pending:
Source: NSF CMMI
Amount: $450,000
Title: Collaborative Research: Online Hazard Communication in the Terse Regime: Measurement,
Modeling, and Dynamics
Role: PI

Source: NSF IIS

Amount: $500,000
Title: III: NeTS: Small: Network Sampling and Construction Methods for Inference and
Anonymization
Role: Co-PI with Markopoulou, Athina (PI)

Source: NSF IIS

Award Amount: $2,000,000
Title: BIGDATA: F: IA: N-body Algorithms for Mobile and Relational Data at Scale
Role Co-PI with Markopoulou, Athina (PI); Chandramowlishwaran, Aparna (Co-PI);

Jean-Paul Carvalho

Source: IMBS Seed Grant

Award Amount: $2500
Award Period: 2015-2016
Title: Coordination and Constraint
Role: PI

Source: UCI Research and Travel Funds Award

Award Amount: $1100
Award Period: June 2015
Role: PI

David Eppstein

Source: NSF
Amount: $388,861
Award Period: 2012-2016
Title: Geometric Graph Algorithms
Role: PI

40
Steve Frank

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $166,000
Award Period: 2016- 2017
Title: OPUS: The common patterns of nature
Role: PI

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $270,000
Award Period: 2013 – 2017
Title: Models of Natural Selection, Development, and Life History
Role: PI

Kimberly Jameson

Source: Private Donations

Award Amount: $65,000
Award Period: 2015
Title: Clinical and Behavioral Investigations of Human hotpigment Opsin Gene Variations and
Age-related Macular Degeneration
Role: PI with C.M. Kenney (Co-PI)

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $980,923
Award Period: 2014 – 2017
Title: IBSS: New methods for investigating the formation of individual and shared  concepts  and  
their  dynamic  dispersion  across  related  societies  
Role: PI with N. Komarova (Co-PI), D. Wodarz (Co-PI), L. Narens (Co-PI)

Source: Pacific Rim

Award Amount: $46,616
Award Period: 2011 – 2015
Title: Faculty initiative grant: Investigating concept formation and the linguistic processing of
natural categories across Pacific Rim ethnolinguistic groups
Role: PI

Marek Kaminski

Source: Center for the Study of Democracy

Award Amount: $2,500
Award Period: 2015
Title: CSD Seed Grant
41
Role: PI

Natalia Komarova

Source: IMBS Seed Grant

Award Amount: $2,500
Award Period: 2015-2016
Title: Quantifying the Evolution of Music
Role: Investigator

Source: NIH
Award Amount: $2,249,999
Award Period: 2014 – 2019
Title: Aspirin and Cancer Prevention in Lynch Syndrome: From Cell to Population Data
Role: Co-PI (with PIs D. Wodarz and D. Levy)

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $980,923 (calculated with Jameson’s award)
Award Period: 2014-2017
Title: IBSS: New methods for investigating the formation of individual and shared  concepts  and  
their  dynamic  dispersion  across  related  societies  
Role: Co-PI, (with PI K. Jameson, Co-PIs D. Wodarz and L. Narens)

Source: NIH
Award Amount: $1,211,630
Award Period: 2011 – 2015
Title Virus Dynamics and Multiple Infection of Cells
Role: Co –PI (with PIs D. Wodarz and D. Levy)

Igor Kopylov

Source: IMBS Seed Grant

Award Amount: $1,700
Award Period: 2015-2016
Title: Subjective Model Uncertainty and Second Model Uncertainty and Second-Order Beliefs
Role: Investigator

Michael Lee

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $182,000
Award Period: 2013–2015
Title: Classifying categorization using state trace analysis and hierarchical Bayesian modeling
42
Role: Co-PI (subcontract)

Louis Narens

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $980,923 (calculated with Jameson’s award)
Award Period: 2014 – 2017
Title: IBSS: New methods for investigating the formation of individual and shared  concepts  and  
their  dynamic  dispersion  across  related  societies  
Role: Co-PI, (with PI K. Jameson, Co-PIs D. Wodarz and N. Komarova)

Source: AFOSR
Award Amount: $388,187
Award Period: 2012 – 2015
Title Modeling Behavioral and Decision Behavior through Systmes of Observers
Role: PI

Michael McBride

Source: UCI Center for the Study of Democracy Seed Grant

Award Amount: $2,500
Award Period: 2015
Title: Research Assistance for the Study of Choice Blindness and Ethical Reversals
Source: PI

Source: UC Connect Faculty Research Grant

Award Amount: $138,586
Award Period: 2014 – 2015
Title: Experimental Studies for Traffic Incident Management
Role: Co-PI

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $4,600,000
Award Period: 2013 – 2019
Title: Low Energy Options for Making Water from Wastewater
Role: Co-PI

Source: Army Research Office

Award Amount: $3,750,000 (total); $340,275 (sub award)
Award Period: 2011 – 2016
Title: Scalable, Stochastic and Spatiotemporal Game Theory for Real-World Human Adversarial
Behavior
Role: Co-PI
43
Source: United States Air Force Office of Scientific Research
Award Amount: $7,500,000 (total); $291,718 (sub award)
Award Period: 2010 – 2015
Title: Inferring Structure and Forecasting Dynamics on Evolving Networks
Role: Co-PI

Louis Narens

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $980,923.00 (calculated with Jameson’s award)
Award Period: 2014-2017
Title: IBSS: New methods for investigating the formation of individual and shared concepts and
their dynamic dispersion across related societies
Role: Co-PI with K. Jameson (PI), N. Komarova (Co-PI), D. Wodarz (Co-PI)

Source: AFOSR
Award Amount: $388,187
Award Period: 2012– 2016
Title: Modeling Behavioral and Decision Behavior through Systems of Observers
Role: PI

Lisa Pearl

Source: UCI School of Social Sciences Associate Professor Research Award

Award Amount: $5,000
Award Period: 2015
Title: Deeper linguistic features for automatic detection of opinion spam
Role: PI

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $375,000 (total); $142,000 (UCI)
Award Period: 2014 – 2017
Title: Collaborative Research: An Integrated Theory of Syntactic Acquisition
Role: PI

Source: NSF, SBIR Phase I

Award Amount: $150,000 (total); $18,542 (UCI)
Award Period: 2015
Title: Deep Linguistic Features for Automated Text Analysis
Role: PI (pending)

44
Hal Stern

Source: National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

Award Amount: $20,000,000
Award Period: June 2015 – May 2020
Title: Center of Excellence in Forensic Statistics
Role: Co-PI and PI of UC Irvine subcontract ($3,700,000); A. Carriquiry, PI

Source: National Institutes of Mental Health – NIMH Conte Center

Award Amount: $10,000
Award Period: 2013 – 2018
Title: Fragmented Early Life Environment and Cognitive and Emotional Vulnerabilities,
Role: Co-PI and Head of Biostatistics Computation and Date Management Core, T. Baram, PI

James Weatherall

Source: NEH
Award Amount: $21,991
Award Period: 2014 – 2017
Title: What is Time? Perspectives from Physics, Philosophy, Fiction, and Film, NEH Big
Questions Course Development Grant
Role: PI

Source: NSF
Amount: $221,590
Award Period: 2013 – 2016
Title: A Theoretical Study of the Conceptual, Mathematical, and Explanatory Interconnections at
the Foundations of Classical Field Theories
Role: PI

Source: NSF Interdisciplinary Behavioral and Social Science Research Team Exploratory Grant
Award Amount: $249,928
Award Period: 2013-2015
Title: Comprehending and Regulating Financial Crises
Role: Co-PI with N. Bandelj, J. Elyachar, and G. Richardson

Jack Xin

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $419,691
Award Period: 2012 – 2016
Title: Reaction-Diffusion Front Speeds in Chaotic and Stochastic Flows
Role: PI
45
Source: NSF
Award Amount: $451,109
Award Period: 2012 – 2015
Title: Blind and Template Assisted Source Separation Algorithms with Applications to
Spectroscopic Data
Role: PI

Source: NSF-PRISM
Award Amount: $1,950,568
Award Period: 2009 – 2015
Title: PRISM: UCI Interdisciplinary Com-putational and Applied Mathematics Program
Role: PI, with Co-PIs: H-K Zhao, S. Eichhorn, A. Ihler, M. Welling

Hongkai Zhao

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $238,860
Award Period: 2014 – 2017
Title: Shape and data analysis using computational differential geometry
Role: PI

Pending:

Source: NSF
Award Amount: $816,089
Award Period: 2016 – 2019
Title: BIGDATA:F: Theory and practice for exploiting deterministic structures of probability
models in big data analysis

46
 VI. APPENDICES

A. CURRENT FACULTY MEMBERS

APPENDIX A
IMBS FACULTY, 2014-2015

Pierre F. Baldi, (Ph.D. Mathematics, California Institute of Technology). Distinguished Professor

of Computer Science; Director, Institute for Genomics & Bioinformatics, University of California,
Irvine. Research areas: Bioinformatics, computational biology, probabilistic modeling, machine
learning.

Jeffrey Barrett, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Columbia University). Chancellor's Fellow and Professor of
Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of
science; theory of knowledge; philosophy of physics.

William H. Batchelder, (Ph.D. Psychology, Stanford University). Professor of Cognitive

Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical modeling and
measurement methodology in the social sciences.

Michael Birnbaum, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of

Psychology, Cal State University, Fullerton. Research areas: Human judgment, decision-making,
and utility measurement.

John P. Boyd, (Ph.D. Communication Sciences, University of Michigan). Professor Emeritus of

Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Algebraic models of social
relations, quantitative methods, and sociobiology.

William A. Branch, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Oregon). Chancellor’s Fellow and Professor
of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Macroeconomic dynamics.

Myron (Mike) Braunstein, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Michigan). Professor Emeritus of

Psychology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Visual perception, especially depth
and motion perception.

David Brownstone, (Ph.D. Econometrics and Applied Microeconomics, University of California,

Berkeley) Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computer-
intensive analysis of statistical estimation strategies and applied econometrics.

Jan K. Brueckner, (Ph.D. Economics, Stanford University). Professor of Economics and

Department Chair, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Urban economics, public
economics, industrial organization, housing finance.
47
Michael Burton, (Ph.D. Anthropology, Stanford University). Professor Emeritus of
Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Economic and social
anthropology.

Carter Butts, (Ph.D. Sociology, Carnigie Mellon University). Professor of Sociology, University
of California, Irvine. Research areas: Social networks, Bayesian methods, informant accuracy and
strategic behavior.

Jean-Paul Carvalho, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Oxford). Assistant Professor of Economics,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied game theory; culture, identity and
institutions.

Charles Chubb, (Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, New York University). Professor of Cognitive
Sciences. University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, perception, and information
processing.

Linda Cohen, (Ph.D. Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology). Professor of

Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Political economy, public choice,
and government regulation of business.

Art De Vany, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor Emeritus of
Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Models of industry organization,
health, analysis and policy of extreme events, information processing and market institutions.

Barbara A. Dosher, (Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, University of Oregon). NAS Member,

Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Sciences, School of Social Sciences, University of
California, Irvine. Research areas: Memory, visual perception, depth from visual motion.

Michael D'Zmura (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Rochester). Professor of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, color, attention, image understanding,
virtual reality.

David A. Eppstein, (Ph.D. Computer Sciences, Columbia University). Chancellor’s Professor of

Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computational geometry and
graph algorithms, including finite element meshing, minimum spanning trees, shortest paths,
dynamic graph data structures, graph coloring, graph drawing, geometric optimization,
computational robust statistics, and geometric optimization.

Jean-Claude Falmagne, (Ph.D. Psychological Sciences, University of Brussels). Research

Professor Emeritus, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas:
Assessment of knowledge, measurement theory, psychophysics, mathematical psychology.

48
Katherine Faust, (Ph.D. Social Science, University of California, Irvine). Professor of Sociology,
University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical, computational, and conceptual
models to study complex phenotypes.

Steven A. Frank, (Ph.D. Biology, University of Michigan). Professor of Ecology and

Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Evolution of social
behavior; design of reliability.

Linton C. Freeman, (Ph.D. Sociology, Northwestern University) Professor Emeritus of Sociology,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Cognition of social structure, social networks.

Michelle Garfinkel, (Ph.D. Economics, Brown University). Professor of Economics, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Strategic aspects of monetary and fiscal policies.

Amihai Glazer, (Ph.D. Economics, Yale University). Professor of Economics, University of

California, Irvine. Research Areas: Public choice, especially concerning commitment problems.

Bernard Grofman, (Ph.D. Political Science, University of Chicago). Jack W. Peltason Endowed
Chair, Professor of Political Science; Past Director, Center for the Study of Democracy,
University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Models of group decision making, models of
individual choice, electoral competition.

Donald Hoffman, (Ph.D. Computational Psychology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Professor of Cognitive Sciences and Information and Computer Science, University of California,
Irvine. Research areas: Formal theories of perception, human and machine vision, recovery of
depth from images.

Simon Huttegger, (Ph.D. Universität Salzburg). Chancellor’s Fellow and Associate Professor of
Logic and Philosophy of Science Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas:
Probability theory; philosophy of probability, induction, decision theory, social philosophy,
dynamical Systems.

Geoffrey Iverson, (Ph.D. Theoretical Physics, University of Adelaide, Australia, Ph.D.

Experimental Psychology, New York University). Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of
California, Irvine. Research areas: Psychophysics, vision, statistical estimation and testing of
ordinal models.

Kent Johnson, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Rutgers University). Professor of Philosophy, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Lexical semantics, metaphysical/epistemological relation
between current linguistic theories and broader psychological processes, Methodological issues
bearing on linguistic theorizing.

49
Marek Kaminski, (Ph.D. Government and Politics, University of Maryland). Associate Professor
of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Political systems and
economics in transition, formal models of voting, political consequences of electoral laws, models
of allocation and social choice.

L. Robin Keller, (Ph.D. Management Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor
of Management, Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine. Research
areas: Individual decision making, risk analysis, fairness, probability judgements, decision
problem structuring.

Igor Kopylov, (Ph.D. University of Rochester). Associate Professor of Economics, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Microeconomic theory, decision theory, and game theory.

Natalia Komarova, (Ph.D. Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona). Professor of

Mathematics, and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine. Research
areas: Mathematical modeling and biology, virus dynamics, cancer modeling.

Michael D. Lee, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Adelaide). Professor of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Mathematical and computational models of
stimulus representation, categorization, memory, decision-making and problem-solving.

Simon Asher Levin, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of Maryland). NAS Member, Director,
Center for BioComplexity, George M. Moffett Professor of Biology, Princeton University.
Research Areas: Dynamics of populations and communities; spatial heterogeneity and problems
of scale; evolutionary ecology; theoretical and mathematical ecology; biodiversity and ecosystem
processes.

Mark Machina, (Ph.D. Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Professor of

Economics, University of California, San Diego. Research areas: Utility, decision making, risk
behavior.

Penelope Maddy, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Princeton). Distinguished Professor of Logic and

Philosophy of Science and Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas:
Philosophy of mathematics, especially the philosophy of set theory.

Michael McBride, (Ph.D. Economics, Yale University). Professor of Economics, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Microeconomics, game theory, and political economy.

Anthony McGann, (Ph.D. Political Science, Duke University). Professor in the School of
Government and Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland. Research Areas:
Party systems, democratic theory, formal models of political systems, European government

50
Louis Narens, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of
Cognitive Sciences, and Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Graduate Advisor for IMBS, University
of California, Irvine. Research areas: Measurement theory, foundations of science, decision
theory.

Andrew Noymer, (Ph.D. Sociology, University of California, Berkeley). Associate Professor of

Sociology and Public Health, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Medical
demography, mathematical sociology, quantitative methodology.

Calin O’Conner, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of California, Irvine) Assistant Professor of Logic
and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Philosophy of
biology, philosophy of science, and evolutionary game theory.

Richard S. Palais, (Ph.D. Mathematics, Harvard University). Adjunct Professor of Mathematics,

University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Mathematical Visualization and more
specifically to continue the development of Macintosh program 3D-Filmstrip (now called 3D-
XplorMath).

Lisa Pearl, (Ph.D. Linguistics, University of Maryland at College Park). Associate Professor of
Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Language acquisition,
language change, natural language processing.

Dale Poirier, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin). Professor of Economics, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Econometrics, both theoretical and empirical, specializing
in Bayesian econometrics

David M. Riefer, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Irvine). Professor of Psychology,

California State University at San Bernardino. Research areas: Memory, cognitive science, and
mathematical Psychology.

A. Kimball Romney, (Ph.D. Social Anthropology, Harvard University). NAS Member, Emeritus
Professor of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Cognitive
anthropology, cultural consensus, informant accuracy, quantitative methods.

Donald G. Saari, (Ph.D. Mathematics, Purdue University). NAS Member, Distinguished

Professor of Mathematics and Economics, and Director of the Institute for Mathematical
Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematics and
application of dynamical systems to social sciences; decision theory.

Stergios Skaperdas, (Ph.D. Economics, Johns Hopkins University). Clifford S. Heinz Chair,
Professor of Economics., University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Economic theory and
political economy.

51
Brian Skyrms, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh). NAS Member, Distinguished
Professor of Social Sciences, Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, and Professor of
Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Probability, induction, causation,
rational choice.

Kenneth A. Small, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Berkeley). Professor Emeritus of

Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Urban, energy and transportation
economics, econometrics.

Padhraic Smyth, (Ph.D. Computer Engineering, California Institute of Technology). Professor of

Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Statistical pattern
recognition, probabilistic learning, information theory, artificial intelligence, image and time-
series modeling.

George Sperling, (Ph.D. Psychology, Harvard University). NAS Member, Distinguished

Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Human
information processing, vision and visual perception, computer vision and image processing.

Ramesh Srinivasan, (Ph.D. Biomedical Engineering, Tulane University). Professor of Cognitive

Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Perception, development and cortical
dynamics.

Hal Stern, (Ph.D. Statistics, University of California, Irvine). Ted and Janice Smith Family
Foundation Endowed Chair in Information and Computer Science, Dean and Professor of
Information and Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Bayesian
methods, model diagnostics, statistical computing.

Mark Steyvers, (Ph.D. Psychology, Indiana University). Professor of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computational models of memory, reasoning
and perceptions.

Rein Taagepera, (Ph.D. Physics, University of Delaware). Professor Emeritus of Political Science,
University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Quantitatively predictive models; electoral and
party systems; Finno-Ugric area studies.

Jennifer Trueblood, (Ph.D. Cognitive Science, Indiana University, Bloomington). Assistant

Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Judgment and
decision making and cognitive modeling.

Carole Uhlaner, (Ph.D. Political Science, Harvard University). Associate Professor of Political
Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Rational actor models and statistical
analyses of political behavior, especially participation and voting; decision theory; comparative
politics.
52
Joachim Vandekerckhove, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Leuven, Belgium) Assistant
Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Response time
modeling – Psychometrics- Computional methods – Bayesian statistics.

James Weatherall, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of California, Irvine). Associate Professor of

Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of
physics. Philosophy of space and time, philosophy of science, atomic, molecular, and optical
physics (theory), mathematical physics.

Douglas White, (Ph.D. Anthropology, Social Theory, University of Minnesota). Professor

Emeritus of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: social networks,
longitudinal social demography, cross cultural, quantitative methods.

Charles E. (Ted) Wright, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Michigan). Associate Professor of

Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Motor processing and
control, visual search, handwriting.

Jack Xin, (Ph.D. Courant Institute, New York University). Professor of Mathematics, University
of California, Irvine. Research areas: Partial Differential Equations (PDE), Asymptotic
Analysis, Scientific Computation, and their Applications in Fluid Dynamics, Voice Signal
Processing, Biology, Nonlinear Optics and Geoscience.

John I. Yellott, (Ph.D. Psychology, Stanford University). Professor Emeritus of Cognitive

Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, probabilistic choice models.

Hongkai Zhao, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of

Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied and computational
mathematics with applications in physics, engineering, imaging science and computer vision.

Robert Forbes, (Ph.D. Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine).

Project Scientist, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied studies of decision-
making under uncertainty. Development of mathematical modeling and methodologies for risk
assessment and group decision-making in large corporations.

Kimberly Jameson, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Irvine). Associate Project

Scientist, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: categorization behaviors; modeling
concept formation for perceptual stimuli (e.g., the cognitive organization of color sensations and
its relationship to linguistic classifiers); the development and breakdown of these cognitive
functions; and optimum performance in tasks involving color-coding(s).

53
Vladimir A. Lefebvre, (Ph.D. Psychology, Lomonosov Moscow State University). Researcher for
Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Human reflexion,
mathematical modeling of human inner world, military psychology.

Tim Satalich, (Ph.D. Mathematical Psychology, John Hopkins University). Associate Researcher,
University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical modeling of human color vision
processing. Development of statistical analysis methods for representing perceptual color space
data.

Sean Tauber (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Irvine) Assistant Project Scientist,
University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical psychology, computer modeling
of psychological phenomena, evolutionary game-theoretic algorithms.

54
 B. SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS

APPENDIX B
SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS OF IMBS MEMBERS, 2014-15

William Batchelder

Matzke, D., Dolan, C., Batchelder, W. H., and Wagenmakers, E. J. (2015). Bayesian estimation of
multinomial processing tree models with heterogeneity in participants and items. Psychometrika,
80, 205-235.

Oravecz, Z., Anders, R., and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for test
theory without and answer key. Psychometrika, 80, 341-364.

Anders, R. and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Cultural Consensus Theory for the ordinal data case.
Psychometrika, 80, 151-195.

France, S. and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Maximum likelihood item easiness models for test
theory without an answer key. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 75, 57-77.

Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Discrete state models of information processing. In J. D. Wright (Ed.)

Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Second Edition, Vol.6. Oxford: Elsevier.
pp.523-529.

Batchelder, W.H. (2015). Mathematical Psychology: History. In J.D. Wright (Ed.). Encyclopedia
of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Second Edition, Vol. 6. Oxford: Elsevier. 808-815.

Oravecz, Z., Faust, K., and Batchelder, W. H. (2014). An extended Cultural Consensus Theory
model to account for cognitive processes in decision making in social surveys. Sociological
Methodology, 26, 185-228.

Anders, R., Oravecz, Z., and Batchelder, W. H. (2014). Cultural consensus theory for continuous
responses; A latent appraisal model for information pooling. Journal of Mathematical
Psychology, 61, 1-13.

France, S. L., and Batchelder, W. H. (2014). Unsupervised consensus analysis for on-line review
and questionnaire data. Information Sciences, 283, 241-257.

Batchelder, W. H. (2014). A tribute to William Kaye Estes (1919-2011). Journal of Mathematical

Psychology, 59, 3-5.

55
Oravecz, Z., Faust, K., Levitis, D. A. and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Studying the existence and
attributes of consensus on psychological concepts by a cognitive psychological model. American
Journal of Psychology, 128, 61-75.

Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Discrete State Models of Cognition. W. H. Batchelder, H. Colonius, E.

Dzhafarov, and J. Myung (Eds.). New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 1,
Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. 65pp. In Press.

Boyd, J. P. and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Network Analysis. To Appear in W. H. Batchelder, H.

Colonius, E. Dzhafarov, and J. Myung (Eds.). New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Vol.
1. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press. 93 pp. In Press.

Alexander, G. E., Satalich, T. A., Shankle, W. R., and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). A cognitive
model for psychodiagnostic assessment of memory related deficits. Psychological Assessment. In
Press.

Batchelder, W. H., Colonius, H., Dzhafarov, E., and Myung, J. (Editors). New Handbook of
Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 1. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press. In Press.

John Boyd

Boyd, J. P. and Batchelder, W. H. (2015). Network Analysis. To Appear in W. H. Batchelder, H.

Colonius, E. Dzhafarov, and J. Myung (Eds.). New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Vol.
1. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press. 93 pp. In Press.

Bill Branch

Branch, B. Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
(forthcoming).

Branch, B., Petrosky-Nadeau, N., and Rocheteau, G. Financial Frictions, the Housing Market and
Unemployment. Journal of Economic Theory (forthcoming).

Jan Brueckner

Brueckner, J. (2014). Cordon Tolling in a City with Congested Bridges. Economics of

Transportation, 3, 235-242.

Brueckner, J. (2015). Where and When to Invest in Infrastructor. Regional Science and Urban
Economics, 53, 123-134.

Brueckner, J. Decentralized Road Investment and Pricing in a Multi-Jurisdictional City:

Efficiency with Spillovers. National Tax Journal (forthcoming).
56
Brueckner, J., Calem, P., and Nakamura, L. House-Price Expectations, Alternative Mortgage
Products, and Default. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (forthcoming).

Brueckner, J. and Lall, S. (2015). Cities in Developing Countries: Fueled by Rural-Urban

Migration, Lacking in Tenure Security, and Short of Affordable Housing. Handbook of Regional
and Urban Economics, Vol. 5B, Elsevier.

Carter Butts

Almquist, Zack W. and Butts, Carter T. (2015). Predicting Regional Self-Identification from
Spatial Network Models. Geographical Analysis, 47(1): 50-72.

Cici, Blerim; Gjoka, Minas; Markopoulou; and Butts, Carter T. (2015). On the Decomposition of
Cell Phone Activity Patterns and their Connection with Urban Ecology. ACM International
Symposium on Mobile Ad Hoc Networking and Computing (ACM MobiHoc).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2746285.2746292

Butts, Carter T. (2015). A Novel Simulation Method for Binary Discrete Exponential Families,
with Application to Social Networks. Journal of Mathematical Sociology (forthcoming).

Butts, Carter T. and Almquist, Zack W. (2015). A Flexible Parameterization for Baseline Mean
Degree in Multiple-Network ERGMs. Journal of Mathematical Sociology (forthcoming).

Fitzhugh, Sean M.; Pixley, Joy E.; and Butts, Carter T. (2015). A Life History Graph Approach
to the Analysis and Comparison of Life Histories. Advances in Life Course Research
(forthcoming).

Hipp, John R.; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T.; Jose, Rupa; and Lakon, Cynthia M. (2015). The
Consequences of Different Methods for Handling Missing Network Data in Stochastic Actor-
Based Models.'' Social Networks, 41, 56-71.

Lakon, Cynthia M.; Hipp, John R.; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T.; and Jose, Rupa. (2015).
Simulating Dynamic Network Models and Adolescent Smoking: The Impact of Varying Peer
Influence and Peer Selection. American Journal of Public Health(forthcoming).

Marcum, Christopher S. and Butts, Carter T. (2015). Constructing and Modifying Sequence
Statistics for relevent using informR in R. Journal of Statisical Software, 64(5).
http://www.jstatsoft.org/v64/i05

Smith, Emily J.; Marcum, Christopher S.; Boessen, Adam; Almquist, Zack W.; Hipp, John R.;
Nagle, Nicholas N.; and Butts, Carter T. (2015). The Relationship of Age to Personal Network

57
Size, Relational Multiplexity, and Proximity to Alters in the Western United States. Journal of
Gerontology, Series B, 70(1), 91-99. PMCID: PMC4296207.

Wang, Cheng; Hipp, John R.; Jose, Rupa; and Lakon, Cynthia M. (2015). Alcohol Use among
Adolescent Youth: The Role of Friendship Networks and Family Factors in Multiple School
Studies. PLoS ONE, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0119965.

Yaveroglu, Omer Nebil; Fitzhugh, Sean M.; Kurant, Maciej; Markopoulou, Athina; Butts, Carter
T.; and Przulj, Natasa. (2015). ergm.graphlets: A Package for ERG Modeling Based on Graphlet
Statistics. Journal of Statistical Software, 65(12). http://www.jstatsoft.org/v65/i12

Lakon, Cynthia M.; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T.; Jose, Rupa; Timberlake, David S.; and Hipp,
John R. (2014). A Dynamic Model of Adolescent Friendship Networks, Parental Influences, and
Smoking. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 147, 1-20. DOI: 10.1007/s10964-014-0187-7

Mendonca, David; Webb, Gary; Butts, Carter T.; and Brooks, James. (2014). Cognitive
Correlates of Improvised Behaviour in Disaster Response: the Cases of the Murrah Building and
the World Trade Center. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 22(4), 185-195.

Sutton, Jeannette; Spiro, Emma S.; Johnson, Britta; Fitzhugh, Sean; Gibson, Ben; and Butts,
Carter T. (2014). Terse Message Amplification in the Boston Bombing Response. In
Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and
Management. (ISCRAM).

David Eppstein

M. J. Bannister, Z. Cheng, W. E. Devanny, and D. Eppstein. (2014). Superpatterns and universal

point sets. J. Graph Algorithms & Applications 18(2):177–209.

D. Eppstein. (2014). Drawing arrangement graphs in small grids, or how to play planarity. J.
Graph Algorithms & Applications 18(2):211–231.

P. Angelini, D. Eppstein, F. Frati, M. Kaufmann, S. Lazard, T. Mchedlidze, M. Teillaud, and A.

Wolff. (2014). Universal point sets for planar graph drawings with circular arcs. J. Graph
Algorithms & Applications 18(3):313–324.

D. Eppstein. (2014). Grid minors in damaged grids. Electronic J. Combinatorics 21(3):P3.20.

D. Eppstein. (2014). A Möbius-invariant power diagram and its applications to soap bubbles and
planar Lombardi drawing. Discrete & Computational Geometry 52(3):515–550.

D. Eppstein and E. Mumford. (2014). Steinitz theorems for simple orthogonal polyhedra. Journal
of Computational Geometry 5(1): 179–244.
58
B. E. Parrish, J. M. McCarthy, and D. Eppstein. (2015). Automated generation of linkage loop
equations for planar one degree-of-freedom linkages, demonstrated up to 8-bar. J. Mechanisms
and Robotics 7(1):011006.

D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, M. Mitzenmacher, and P. Pszona. (2014). Wear minimization for

cuckoo hashing: how not to throw a lot of eggs into one basket. Proc. 13th Int. Symp.
Experimental Algorithms, pp. 162–173. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science
8504.

B. E. Parrish, J. M. McCarthy, and D. Eppstein. (2014). Automated generation of linkage loop

equations for planar 1-DoF linkages, demonstrated up to 8-bar. Proc. ASME 2014 International
Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering
Conference, Vol. 5A: 38th Mechanisms and Robotics Conference, Buffalo, New York, USA,
August 17-20, 2014, p. V05AT08A070.

Z. Abel, E. D. Demaine, M. L. Demaine, D. Eppstein, A. Lubiw, and R. Uehara. (2014). Flat

foldings of plane graphs with prescribed angles and edge lengths. Proc. 22nd Int. Symp. Graph
Drawing (GD 2014), pp. 272–283. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8871.

M. J. Alam, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, S. G. Kobourov, and S. Pupyrev. (2014). Balanced

circle packings for planar graphs. Proc. 22nd Int. Symp. Graph Drawing (GD 2014), pp. 125–136.
Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8871.

M. J. Bannister, W. E. Devanny, D. Eppstein, and M. T. Goodrich. (2014). The Galois complexity

of graph drawing: why numerical solutions are ubiquitous for force-directed, spectral, and circle
packing drawings. Proc. 22nd Int. Symp. Graph Drawing (GD 2014), pp. 149–161. Springer-
Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8871.

M. J. Bannister and D. Eppstein. (2014). Crossing minimization for 1-page and 2-page drawings
of graphs with bounded treewidth. Proc. 22nd Int. Symp. Graph Drawing (GD 2014), pp. 210–
221. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8871.

G. Borradaile, D. Eppstein, and P. Zhu. (2014). Planar induced subgraphs of sparse graphs. Proc.
22nd Int. Symp. Graph Drawing (GD 2014), pp. 1–12. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in
Computer Science 8871.

Z. Cheng and D. Eppstein. (2014). Linear-time algorithms for proportional apportionment. Proc.
25th Int. Symp. Algorithms and Computation (ISAAC 2014), pp. 581–592. Springer-Verlag,
Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

B. Ballinger, M. Damian, D. Eppstein, R. Y. Flatland, J. Ginepro, and T. Hull. (2015). Minimum

forcing sets for Miura folding patterns. Proc. 26th ACM-SIAM Symp. Discrete Algorithms.
59
E. D. Demaine, D. Eppstein, A. Hesterberg, H. Ito, A. Lubiw, R. Uehara, and Y. Uno. (2015).
Folding a paper strip to minimize thickness. Proc. 9th Int. Worksh. Algorithms and Computation
(WALCOM 2015), Dhaka, Bangladesh, pp. 113–124. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in
Computer Science 8973.

D. Eppstein. (2014) k-best enumeration. Encyclopedia of Algorithms, pp. 1–4. Springer-Verlag.

D. Eppstein. (2015). k-best enumeration. Bulletin of the European Association for Theoretical
Computer Science, 115, 2015.

Steve Frank

Frank, S. A. (2015). Commentary: The nature of cancer research. International Journal of

Epidemiology. In press.

Frank, S. A. (2014). The inductive theory of natural selection. arXiv:1412.1285v1.

Frank, S. A. (2014). How to read probability distributions as statements about process. Entropy
16:6059-6098.

Frank, S. A. (2014). Somatic mosaicism and disease. Current Biology 24:R577-R581.

Frank, S. A. (2014). Generative models versus underlying symmetries to explain biological

pattern. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 27:1172-1178.

Frank, S. A. (2014). Microbial metabolism: optimal control of uptake versus synthesis. PeerJ
2:e267.

Michelle Garfinkel

Garfinkel, M. and Syropoulous, C. (2015). Trade Openness and the Settlement of Domestic
Disputes in the Shadow of the Future. Research in Economics, vol. 69.

Garfinkel, M., Skaperdas, S., and Syropoulos, C. (2015). Trade and Insecure Resources. Journal
of International Economics, vol. 95.

Simon Huttegger

Huttegger, S.M. (2015). The Robustness of Hybrid Equilibria in Signaling Games. Accepted for
publication in Dynamic Games and Applications.

60
Huttegger, S.M. (2015). Merging of Opinions and Probability Kinematics. Accepted for
publication in Review of Symbolic Logic.

Huttegger, S.M. (2015). Bayesian Convergence to the Truth and the Metaphysics of Possible
Worlds. Accepted for publication in Philosophy of Science.

Huttegger, S.M. (2015). The Problem of Analogical Inference in Inductive Logic. Proceedings of
the 15th conference on Theoretical Aspects of Rationality and Knowledge: 3–9.

Hofbauer, J. and Huttegger, S.M. (2015). Selection-Mutation Dynamics of Signaling Games.

Games 6: 2-31.

Bruner, J.B., O’Connor, C., Rubin, H., and Huttegger, S.M. (2015). David Lewis in the Lab:
Experimental Results on the Emergence of Meaning. Accepted for publication in Synthese.

Huttegger, S.M, Bruner, J.B., and Zollman, K. J. S. (2015). The Handicap Principle is an Artifact.
Accepted for publication in Philosophy of Science.

Huttegger, S.M. (2014). Learning Experiences and the Value of Knowledge. Philosophical
Studies 171:279–288.

Huttegger, S.M., Skyrms, B., Tarrès, P., and Wagner, E.E. (2014). Some Dynamics of Signaling
Games. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 111:10873–10880.

Kimberly A. Jameson

Jameson, K. A., Winkler, A. D., Herrera, C. & K. Goldfarb (2015). The Veridicality of Color: A
case study of human tetrachromacy. Invited Article. GlimpseJournal: The Art + Science of
Seeing, Issue on Truth, January 2015.

Jameson, K. A. & Winkler, A. (2014). New results on color appearance space and the potential for
human tetrachromacy. Conference presentation at the Annual Cognitive Sciences Association for
Interdisciplinary Learning (CSAIL). Hood River Valley, Oregon. August 2014. Published
abstract: Program for CSAIL, July 31, 2014.

Deshpande, P.S., Tauber, S., Chang, S.M., Gago, S., & Jameson, K.A. (2015). A Cultural
Consensus Theory Analysis of Crowdsourced Transcription Data. Annual Meeting of the Society
for Mathematical Psychology, Newport Beach, CA, United States.

Marek Kaminski

Kaminski, M., Swistak, P., and Lissowski, G. (2014). Formal Theory and Value Judgments.
Polish Sociological Review.
61
Kaminski, M. Prisoner’s Dilemma. Oxford Bibliographies(forthcoming).

Kaminiski, M., and Nalepa, M. Suffer a Scratch to Avoid a Blow. Why Do Postcommunists
Introduce Self-Hurting Legislation? Decisions (forthcoming).

Kaminiski, M., Empirical Examples of Voting Paradoxes. In Heckelman, J.C. and Miller, N.R.,
eds. Social Choice and Voting, Springer Verlag (forthcoming).

Kaminiski, M., (2015). Voting methods for single-member districts and their properties. Special
report prepared for the President of Poland and the main Prime Minister candidate of the biggest
party. Invited publication in Decisions (forthcoming).

L. Robin Keller

Journal articles (peer-reviewed)

Lindsey E Minion, MD (Univ. of Arizona Cancer Center & Creighton University at St. Joseph’s
Hospital and MedicaCenter, Phoenix); Jiaru Bai (Merage doctoral student); Bradley J Monk, MD
(Gynecologic Oncology, UCI); L. Robin Keller, PhD; Ramez N Eskander, MD (Gynecologic
Oncology, UCI); Gareth K Forde, MD, PhD, MBA (Gynecologic Oncology, UCI) ; John K Chan,
MD (California Pacific Palo Alto Medical Foundation, Sutter Cancer Institute, San Francisco),
Krishnansu S. Tewari (Gynecologic Oncology, UCI), “A Markov Model to Evaluate Cost
Effectiveness of Antiangiogenesis Therapy Using Bevacizumab in Advanced Cervical Cancer”,
Gynecologic Oncology, 137 (3), June 2015, 490-496. Accepted 2-28-2015. Available online on
10
March 2015. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0090825815006769#.
Chapters in Books
Candice H. Huynh, Jay Simon, L. Robin Keller. Slated for Sept. 2015 publication. “Decision
Technologies”, Invited chapter 32 in volume II, in Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and
Decision Making- 2 Volume Set, eds. Gideon Keren and George Wu. Malden (MA): Blackwell.
Submitted 1/2013, (44 pages). Refereed. (Accepted June 2014; contact authors for a copy of the
working
paper.) http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118468392.html. ISBN: 978-1
118-46839-5.
Working papers
L. Robin Keller and Yitong Wang, “Framing Matters”, Jan. 2015, invited paper- to be reviewed-
to
expand on one area among the "Ten most important accomplishments in risk analysis, 1980-
2010,"
May 2012, Risk Analysis, on "recognizing the personal decisions reflect different processes for
evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, games, delays and surprises," invited by
Editor-in-Chief Michael Greenberg to write this contribution.
62
Shijian Wang (graduate student of marketing, kasano@sjtu.edu.cn), Liangyan Wang (Merage
alumna
and Associate Professor of Marketing, Antai Management School, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,
Shanghai, 200052, WLY@sjtu.edu.cn), L. Robin Keller, Jie Li (Assoc. Prof. of Market., Antai
Mgt
Sch.), “Exploring the Effects of Consumers’ Thinking Styles on Their Reactions to Corporate
Strategic Response to a Brand Crisis”, March 2015.

Xiaona Zheng (former UCI doctoral student, graduated from Duke, Assoc. Prof., Peking
University,
xzheng@gsm.pku.edu.cn), Luping Sun (Business School at Central University of Finance and
Economics, angelsunluping@163.com), Meng Su (Peking University, sumeng@gsm.pku.edu.cn),
L.
Robin Keller. “The Role of Brand Origin and Product Knowledge on Intention-
Behavior Discrepancy:Evidence from China”, March 2015.

Natalia Komarova

Shahriyari, L. and Komarova, N.L. (2015). The role of the bi-compartmental stem cell niche
indelaying cancer. To appear in Phys. Bio.

Yang, J., Sun, Z., and Komarova, N.L. (2015). Analysis of stochastic stem cell models with
control. To appear in Mathematical Biosciences.

Asatrian, A., Wodarz, D. and Komarova, N.L. (2015). New virus dynamics in the presence of
coinfection. Journal of Theoretical Biology 377:98-109.

Toden, S., Okugawa, Y., Jascur, T., Wodarz, D., Komarova, N. L., Buhrmann, C., ...\& Goel, A.
(2015). Curcumin mediates chemosensitization to 5-fluorouracil through miRNA
inducedsuppression of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition in chemoresistant colorectal cancer.
Carcinogenesis, 36(3), 355-367.

Kaveh, K, Komarova, N.L., and Kohandel, M. (2015). The duality of spatial death-birth and
birth-death processes and limitations of the isothermal theorem. Royal Society Open Science 2:
140465.

Foo, J.Y., Haskell, C., Komarova, N.L., Segal, R.A., and Wood, K.E. (2014). Modeling sympatric
speciation in quasiperiodic environments. To appear in WhAM! Proceedings.

Wodarz, D., Chan, C., Trinite, B., Komarova, N.L. and Levy, D. (2014) On the laws of virus
Spread through cell populations. Journal of Virology, 88(22), 13240-13248.

Komarova, N.L., Burger, J.A., Wodarz, D. (2014) Evolution of ibrutinib resistance in chronic
63
lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(38), 13906
13911.

Igor Kopylov

Kopylov, I. and Noor, J. (2015). Commitments and Resolve. Forthcoming.

Michael Lee

Lee, M.D., Newell, B.R., & Vandekerckhove, J. (2014). Modeling the adaptation of search
termination in human decision making. Decision, 1, 223-251.

Wagenmakers, E.-J., Verhagen, A.J., Ly, A., Bakker, M., Lee, M.D., Matzke, D., Rouder, J.N., &
Morey, R.D. (2014). A power fallacy. Behavior Research Methods.

Zhang, S., Lee. M.D., Vandekerckhove, J., Maris, G., and Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2014). Time-
varying boundaries for diffusion models of decision making and response time. Frontiers in
Psychology, Quantitative Psychology and Measurement, 5, 1-11.

Lee, M.D. (2015). Evidence for and against a simple interpretation of the less-is-more effect.
Judgment and Decision Making, 10,18-33.

Lee, M.D. (in press). Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification. Behavior Research
Methods.

Mehlhorn, K., Newell, B.R., Todd, P.M., Lee, M.D., Morgan, K. Braithwaite, V.A., Hausmann,
D., Fielder, K., & Gonzalez, C. (in press). Beyond the exploration-exploitation tradeoff: A
synthesis of human and animal literatures. Decision.

Guan, H., Lee, M.D., & Silva, A. (2014). Threshold models of human decision making on optimal
stopping problems in different environments. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B.
Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society,
pp. 553-558. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Lee, M.D., Liu, E.C., & Steyvers, M. (2015). The roles of knowledge and memory in generating
top-10 lists. In D.C. Noelle & R. Dale (Eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Conference of the
Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Guan, H,. Lee, M.D., & Vandekerckhove, J. (2015). A hierarchical cognitive threshold model of
human decision making on different length optimal stopping problems. In D.C. Noelle & R. Dale
(Eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX:
Cognitive Science Society.

64
Danileiko, I., Lee, M.D., & Kalish, M.L. (2015). A Bayesian latent mixture approach to modeling
individual differences in categorization using General Recognition Theory. In D.C. Noelle & R.
Dale (Eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin,
TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Simon Levin

Peer-Reviewed & Other Publications

Bonachela et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Termite mounds can increase the robustness of
dryland ecosystems to climatic change. Science 347 (6222): 651-655.

Carter, N. et al. (including S. A. Levin). 2015. Modeling tiger population and territory dynamics
using an agent-based approach. Ecological Modeling 312: 347-362.

Castillo-Chavez, C. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Beyond Ebola: Lessons for mitigating
pandemics. TheLancet (July 2015): e354-55.

Chisholm, R.A. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. The potential for alternative stable states in
nutrient-enriched invaded grasslands. Theoretical Ecology: DOI: 10.1007-s12080-015-0258-8.

Farrior, C. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Decreased water limitation under elevated CO2
amplifies potential for forest carbon sinks. PNAS 112(23): 7213-7218.

Hannam, P.M. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Incomplete cooperation and co-benefits:
Deepening climate cooperation with a proliferation of small agreements. Social Science Research
Network (January 1, 2015). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2575251. (In Review
for Climate Change).

Levin, S.A. 2015. Foreword: What mathematics can do for sustainability. Bulletin of
Mathematical Biology: Special Issue on Sustainability 77: 251-253.

Levin, S.A. and I.D. Couzin, eds. 2015. Journal of Statistical Physics: Special Issue: Collective
Behavior 158(3).

Messier, C. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. From management to stewardship: Viewing
forests as complex adaptive systems in an uncertain world. Conservation Letters: DOI:
10.1111/conl.12156.

Morin, B. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. The social value of private infectious disease-risk
mitigation in a rich/poor world. Theoretical Ecology: DOI: 10.1007/s12080-015-0262-z.

Schertzer, E., Staver, A.C., and S.A. Levin. 2015. Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire
spread for the bistability of savanna and forest. Journal of Mathematical Biology 70: 329-341.
65
Tarnita, C. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Fitness tradeoffs between spores and
nonaggregating cells can explain the coexistence of diverse genotypes in cellular slime molds.
PNAS: 112(9): 2776-2781.

Van Boeckel, T.P. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Global trends in microbial use in food
animals. PNAS 112(18): 5649-5654.

Villa Martin, P. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. Eluding catastrophic shifts. PNAS 112(15):
E1828-E1836.

Berdahl, A. et al. (including S. A. Levin). 2015. On the evolutionary interplay between dispersal
and local adaptation in heterogeneous environments. Evolution (forthcoming).

Bonachela, J.A. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. The role of phytoplankton diversity in the
emergent oceanic stoichiometry. Journal of Plankton Research (in review).

Levin, S.A. 2015. Foreword: A personal perspective on landscape ecology in the United States.
History of Landscape Ecology in America (forthcoming).

Levin, S.A. and A. Xepapadeas. 2015. Transboundary capital and pollution flows and the
emergence of regional inequalities. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, Series B:
Special Issue in Honor of Steve Cantrell (in review).

Pacheco, J.M., Santos, F.C., and S. Levin. 2015. Evolutionary dynamics of collective index
insurance. Journal of Mathematical Biology: Special Issue in Honor of the 60th Birthday of Mats
Gyllenberg (in review).

Tanner, A. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2015. What can urban ecology do for ecology and
society?: Integrating Different pathways and perspectives to improve the science while making
cities more livable and sustainable. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (forthcoming).

2014 Peer-Reviewed & Other Publications

Arrow, K., Ehrlich, P., and S.A. Levin. 2014. Some perspectives on linked ecosystems and socio-
economic systems. In Environment and Development Economics: Essays in Honor of Sir Partha
Dasgupta, ed. S. Barrett et al., 95-116. Springer-Verlag.

Berdahl, A. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. A collective navigation hypothesis for homeward
migration in anadromous salmonids. Fish and Fisheries: DOI: 10.1111/faf.12084.
Bonachela, J.A. and S.A. Levin. 2014. Evolutionary comparison between viral lysis rate and
latent period. Journal of Theoretical Biology 345(21): 32-42.

66
De Froment A.J., Rubenstein, D.I., and S.A. Levin. 2014. An extra dimension to decision-
making in animals: The three-way trade-off between speed, effort per-unit-time and accuracy.
PLoS Computational Biology 10(12): e1003937.

Frank, A.B. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Dealing with femtorisks in international
relations. PNAS 111(49): 17356-17362.

Herlands, W., Der, R., Greenberg, Y., and S. Levin. 2014. A machine learning approach to
musically meaningful homogenous style classification. Proceedings of the Advancement of
Artificial Intelligence Conference, July 27-31, 2014, Québec City, Québec, Canada: 276-282.

Klein, E.Y. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Cross-reactive immune responses as primary
drivers of malaria chronicity. Infection and Immunity 82(1): 140.

Lei, J., Levin, S.A., and Nie, Q. 2014. Mathematical model of adult stem cell regeneration with
cross-talk between genetic and epigenetic regulations. PNAS 111(10): E880-E887.

Levin, S.A. 2014. Ecological protection and economic growth. The Scientific Ravi 23: 167.

Levin, S.A. 2014. Public goods in relation to competition, cooperation, and spite. PNAS 111
(suppl. 3): 10838-10845.

Levin, S.A. 2014. Some mathematical challenges in the theory of infectious diseases. In
Challenges of Mathematical Education: An American and Iranian Discussion: Conference
Proceedings from the Mathematics Education Program (University of California, Irvine, January
27-29, 2014), ed. D. Saari, 71-72. Washington D.C.: The Mathematical Association of America.

Lomas, W. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Impact of ocean phytoplankton diversity on
phosphate uptake. PNAS 111(49): 17540-17545.

Morin, B.R. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Disease risk mitigation: The equivalence of two
selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread. Journal
of Theoretical Biology 363: 262-270.

Perrings, C. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Merging economics and epidemiology to
improve the prediction and management of infectious disease. Journal of EcoHealth 11(4): 464-
75.

Salvador, L. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Mechanistic analysis of the search behavior of
Caenorhabditis elegans. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 11(92): 20131092.

Tavoni, A. and S.A. Levin. 2014. Managing the climate commons at the nexus of ecology,
behavior and economics. Nature Climate Change 4: 1057-1063.
67
Thompson, S.E., Levin, S., and I. Rodríguez-Iturbe. 2014. Rainfall and temperatures changes
have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA
under climate change scenarios. Global Change Biology 20: 1299-1312.

Torney, C. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Social information use and the evolution of
unresponsiveness in collective systems. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12(103): 2014093.

Troell, M. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Does agriculture add resilience to the global food
system? PNAS 111(37): 13257-13263.

Van Boeckel, T. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Global antibiotic consumption 2000-2010:
An analysis of national pharmaceutical sales data. Lancet Infectious Diseases 14(8): 742-750.

Vasconcelos, V.V. et al. (including S.A. Levin). 2014. Climate policies under wealth equality.
PNAS 111(6): 2212-2216.

Walker, J.G., Klein, E.Y., and S.A. Levin. 2014. Disease at the wildlife-livestock interface:
Acaricide use on domestic cattle does not prevent transmission of a tick-borne pathogen with
multiple hosts. Veterinary Parasitology 199(3-4): 206-214.

Penelope Maddy
Maddy, P. (2014). The Logical Must. Oxford University Press.

Maddy, P. (2015). Objectivity in mathematics. In Andriy Synytsya, ed., Anthology of

Contemporary
Philosophy of Science, (in Ukranian).

Maddy, P. (2014). ‘Foreword’ and ‘Afterword’ With Michael Ernst, Jeremy Heis, Bennett
McNulty
and James Weatherall) to a special issue of Philosophia Mathematica (June 2015) on the
topic of Mathematical Depth. (Papers from an LPS workshop on this topic in April of 2014.)

Michael McBride

M. McBride. (2015). Financing . In K. von Stuckrad, R. Segal, eds. Vocabulary for the Study of
Religion (forthcoming), Brill Publishers.

68
Louis Narens

Narens, L. (2015). Probabilistic Lattices With Applications to Science: With Applications to

Psychology (Vol. 5). World Scientific.

Narens, L. (n.d.). On Replacing 'Quantum Thinking' with Counterfactual Reasoning. In E.

Dzhafarov, R. Zhang, S. Jordan, & V. Cervantes (Eds.), Contextuality from Quantum Pgysics to
Psychology.

Narens, L. Probabilistic frames for non-boolean algebras. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society A. To appear.

Narens, L., & Skyrms, B. Measuring Utilitarianism. Philosophy of Science. Submitted.

Narens, L., & Skyrms, B. Multimode Utility Theory. Journal of Mathematical Psychology.
Submitted.

Cailin O’Connor

Bruner, J., O’Connor, C., Rubin, H., and Huttegger S. "David Lewis in the lab: experimental
results on the emergence of meaning." Synthese (2014): 1-19.

O’Connor, C. "The evolution of vagueness." Erkenntnis 79.4 (2014): 707-727.

O'Connor, C. "Evolving perceptual categories." Philosophy of Science 81.5 (2014): 840-851

O’Connor, C. "Ambiguity Is Kinda Good Sometimes." Philosophy of Science 82.1 (2015): 110-
121.

O'Connor, C. "Evolving to Generalize: Trading Precision for Speed." The British Journal for the
Philosophy of Science (forthcoming).

Bruner, J., & O'Connor, C. Power, Bargaining, and Collaboration. In T. Boyer, C. Mayo-Wilson,
& M. Weisberg (Eds.), Scientific Collaboration and Collective Knowledge (forthcoming). Oxford:
Oxford University Press.

Lisa Pearl

Pearl, L. & Mis, B. In press. “The role of indirect positive evidence in syntactic acquisition: A
look at anaphoric one.” Language. lingbuzz: http://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/001922 [downloaded
2255 times as of 6/24/15]

69
Phillips, L. & Pearl, L. In press. “The utility of cognitive plausibility in language acquisition
modeling: Evidence from word segmentation.” Cognitive Science.

Pearl, L. & Sprouse, J. (2015). Computational modeling for language acquisition: A tutorial with
syntactic islands. Journal of Speech, Language, and Hearing Research. doi:
10.1044/2015_JSLHR-L-14-0362. lingbuzz: http://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/002346 [downloaded
1336 times as of 6/24/15]

Phillips, L. & Pearl, L. (2015). Utility-based evaluation metrics for models of language
acquisition: A look at speech segmentation. Proceedings of the Workshop on Cognitive Modeling
and Computational Linguistics 2015, NAACL, Denver, Colorado.

Pearl, L. & Enverga, I. (2015). Can you read my mindprint? Automatically identifying mental
states from language text using deeper linguistic features. Interaction Studies, 15(3), 359-387.

Pearl, L. (2014). Evaluating learning strategy components: Being fair. Language, 90(3), e107-
e114. lingbuzz: [downloaded 1068 times as of 6/24/15] http://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/001940

Phillips, L. & Pearl, L. (2014). Bayesian inference as a viable cross-linguistic word segmentation
strategy: It’s all about what’s useful. Proceedings of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive
Science Society, 2775-2780.

Dale Poirier

Poirier, D. (2014). Identification in Multivariate Partial Observability Probit. International

Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, Vol. 5, No1/2, 45-63.

Donald Saari

Saari, D. Unifying voting theory from Nakamura's to Greenberg's Theorems.

Mathematical Social Sciences 69 (2014), 1-11.

Saari, D. and Jessie, D. Cooperation in n-player repeated games. The Mathematics of

Decisions, Elections, and Games, ed. M. Jones, American Mathematical Society Contemporary
Mathematics series. 624 (2014), 189 – 206.

With Frank, A., Collins, M., Levin, S., Lo, A., Ramos, J., . . . Roy, S. (2014). Dealing with
Femtorisks in International Relations. PNAS, Perspective, 111 No. 49, 1. 17356-17362.

Using continuity and topology to model human behavior, Challenges of Mathematical Education:
An American and Iranian Discussion, ed. D. Saari, MAA, 2014.

70
Saari, D. (2015). Mathematics and the “dark matter” puzzle. Mathematical Association of
America Mathematical Monthly, 122 (5), 407-- 423.

Saari, D. (2015). N-body solutions and computing galactic masses. The Astronomical Journal,
149:174-180.

Saari, D. (2015). From Arrow's Theorem to "dark matter". British Journal of Political Science. To
appear.

Saari, D. (2015). Social science puzzles: A systems analysis challenge. Evolutionary and
Institutional Economics Review. doi:10.1007/s40844-015-0008-z.

Saari, D. (2015). Basis for binary comparisons and non-standard probabilities. To appear in Royal
Society Philosophical Transactions A.

Saari, D. (Ed.). (2014). Challenges of Mathematical Education: An American and Iranian

Discussion. Mathematical Association of America Mathematical Monthly.

Stergios Skaperdas

Skaperdas, S., Evia, J., and Laserna, R. (2014). Sociopolitical Conflict and Economic
Performance in Bolivia. In K. Wärneryd (Ed.). The Economics of Conflict: Theory and Empirical
Evidence. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Skaperdas, S. (2014). Proprietary Public Finance: Its Emergence and Evolution out of Anarchy. In
J. Dominguez-Vazquez and S. Winer (Eds.), Coercion and Social Welfare in Public Finance:
Economic and Political Dimensions, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Michael McBride, and Skaperdas, Stergios. “Conflict, Settlement, and the Shadow of the Future.”
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 105 (2014): 75-89.

Garfinkel, Michelle, McBride, Michael, and Skaperdas, Stergios. “Trade and Insecure
Resources.” Journal of International Economics 95(1) (January 2015): 98-114.

Sambanis, Nicholas, Skaperdas, Stergios, and Wohlforth, William. “Nation-Building through

War.” American Political Science Review 109 (2), (May 2015) 279-296.

Brian Skyrms

Skyrms, Brian. Social Dynamics. Oxford UP, 2014. Print.

Skyrms, Brian. New Chinese tr. of The Stag Hunt (2015).

71
Skyrms, B. (2015). Learning to Signal with Two Kinds of Trial and Error. In C. Crangle, A.
Garcia de la Sienra, and H. Longino, (Eds.), Foundations and Methods from Mathematics to
Neuroscience: Essays Inspired by Patrick Suppes. CSLI Publications.

Skyrms, B., Vasconcelos, V., Pacheco, J., & Santos, F. (2015). Co-evolutinary Dynamics of
Collective Action with Signaling for a Quorum. PLOS Computational Biology.
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004101.

Skyrms, B. and Barrett, J. (2015). Self-Assembling Games. British Journal for Philosophy of
Science (forthcoming).

Hal Stern

Stern, H. S. (2015). Bayesian Statistics. In J. Wright (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Social

and Behavioral Sciences (2nd ed., Vol. 2, pp. 373-377). Elsevier. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-
0-08-097086-8.42003-9

Rein Taagepera

Taagepera, R. and A. Sikk. “How population size affects party systems and cabinet duration.”
Party Politics 20 (2014): 591-603.

Carole Uhlaner

Uhlaner, C. J. “Relational Goods and Resolving the Paradox of Political Participation.”

RECERCA: Revista de Pensament I Analisi, (2014), 47-72. Print.

James Weatherall

Weatherall, J., M. Ernst, J. Heis, P. Maddy, and M. McNulty. (Eds.). “Mathematical Depth.”
Philosophia Mathematica, Special Issue (2015).

Weatherall, J., and G. Valente, (Eds). “Relativistic Causality.” Studies in History and Philosophy
of Modern Physics 48B, Special Issue (2014).

Weatherall, J. “Are Newtonian gravitation and geometrized Newtonian gravitation theoretically

equivalent?” Erkenntnis (forthcoming).

Weatherall, J. “Maxwell-Huygens, Newton-Cartan, and Saunders-Knox Spacetimes.” Philosophy

of Science (forthcoming).

Weatherall, J. “Regarding the `Hole Argument'.” The British Journal for Philosophy of Science
(forthcoming).
72
Weatherall, J., N. Bandelj, N., J. Elyachar, J., and G. Richardson. “Comprehending and
Regulating Financial Crises: A Critical Interdisciplinary Approach.” Perspectives on Science
(forthcoming).

Weatherall, J. and M. Gilbert. (2015). “Collective belief and the string theory community.” The
Epistemic Life of Groups: Essays in the Epistemology of Collectives (forthcoming). Brady, M. and
Fricker, M. (Eds.). Oxford University Press: Oxford.

Weatherall, J. “On G. E. Moore's `Proof of an External World'.” Pacific Philosophical Quarterly

(forthcoming).

Weatherall, J. (2014). “Against Dogma: On Superluminal Propagation in Classical

Electromagnetism.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 48B, 109--123.

Review of “Interpreting Physical Theories” by Ruetsche, L. Philosophical Review (forthcoming).

Weatherall, J. and Clearfield, C. “Why the Flash Crash Really Matters.” Nautilus 23 April 2015,
Chapter 4. Online.

Weatherall, J., M. Ernst, J. Heis, P. Maddy, and M. McNulty. (2015). Foreword / Afterword to
“Mathematical Depth.” Philosophia Mathematica (forthcoming). Peer reviewed editorial
commentary.

Douglas White

Grueter, C., & White, D. (2015). On the emergence of large-scale human social integration and its
antecedents in primates. Structure and Dynamics, 7(1, article 2).

Grueter, C., & White, D. (2015). Preprint above: Emergence of large-scale human social
integration. Santa Fe Working Paper, 15-03-006.

White, D., M. Dow, et al. "Networks of Variables Modeling with DEf01 for Cross-Cultural
Research." A preliminary preprint of a part of a Chapter whose final and definitive form will be
published in the Wiley Companion to Cross-Cultural Research. Ed. D. White. Wiley, 2015.

White, D., et al. “Manuals for Modeling with DEf01 for Cross-Cultural Research. Part 1:
Make_your_own_DEf_model.pdf.” A preliminary preprint of a part of a Chapter whose final and
definitive form will be published in the Wiley Companion to Cross-Cultural Research, Ed. D.
White, 2015.

73
Jack Xin

Xin, J., & Qi, Y. (2014). Mathematical Modeling and Signal Processing in Speech and Hearing
Sciences, MS&A (Vol. 10). Springer.

Xin, J., & Yin, P. (n.d.). PhaseLiftOff: An Accurate and Stable Phase Retrieval Method Based on
Difference of Trace and Frobenius Norms. Comm. Math Sciences, 13(4), 1033-1049.

Xin, J., Yin, P., Lou, Y., & He, Q. (2015). Minimization of L1-L2 for Compressed Sensing. SIAM
J. Scientific Computing, 37(1), A536-A563.

Xin, J., Lou, Y., Yin, P., & He, Q. (2015). Computing Sparse Representation in a Highly Coherent
Dictionary Based on Differnce of L1 and L2. J. Scientific Computing, 65(1), 178-196.
doi:10.1007/s10915-014-9930-1 Online: Oct 2014.

Xin, J., Yin, P., & Sun, Y. (2014). A Geometric Blind Source Separation Method Based on Facet
Component Analysis. Signal, Image, and Video Processing. doi:10.1007/s11760-014-0696-6

Xin, J., & Sun, Y. A sparse semi-blind source identification method and its application to Raman
spectroscopy for explosives detection. Signal Processing, (Vol. 96). Part B, 332-345, 2014.

Xin, J., Lou, E., Esser, E., & Zhao, H.K., Partially Blind Deblurring of Barcode From Out-Of-
Focus Blur. SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 7(2), 2014, 740-760.

Xin, J., Sun, Y., Wingen, L., & Finlayson, B. A Semi-Blind Source Separation Method for
Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy of Atmospheric Gas Mixtures. Inverse Problems
and Imaging, 8(2), 2014, 587-610.

Xin, J., Yin, P., & Esser, E. Ratio and Difference of L1 and L2 Norms and Sparse Representation
with Coherent Dictionaries. CAM-report, 13-21, UCLA, 2013; COMMUNICATIONS IN
INFORMATION AND SYSTEMS, 14(2), 2014, 87--109.

Xin, J., Zu, P., & Chen, L. A Computational Study of Residual KPP Front Speeds in Time-
Periodic Cellular Flows in the Small Diffusion Limit. Physica D, to appear.

Xin, J., & Yu, U. Asymptotic growth rates and strong bending of turbulent flame speeds of G-
equation in steady two dimensional incompressible periodic flows. SIAM J. Math Analysis, 46(4)
2014, 2444-2467.

Xin, J. & Yu, Y. Front Quenching in G-equation Model Induced by Straining of Cellular Flow.
Arch. Rational Mechanics & Analysis, 214 (2014), 1-34.

74
Hongkai Zhao

H. Schaeffer, Y. Yang, H. Zhao and S. Osher, Real-time adaptive video compression, SIAM
Journal on Scientific Computing, to appear.

L. Xiao, Q. Cai, Z. Li, H. Zhao and R. Luo, A Multi-Scale Method for Dynamics Simulation in
Continuum Solvents I: Finite-Difference Algorithm for Navier-Stokes Equation, Chemical
Physics Letters, to appear.

T. Aslam, S. Luo and H. Zhao, A static PDE approach for multi-dimensional extrapolation using
fast sweeping methods, SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 36(6), 2014.

T. W. Wong and H. Zhao, Computing Surface Uniformization Using Discrete Beltrami Flow,
SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, to appear.

A. Wong and H. Zhao, Computation of quasiconformal surface maps using discrete Beltrami
flow, SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences,7(4), 2675–2699, 2014.

Z. Li, Q. Cai, H. Zhao and R. Luo, A semi-implicit augmented IIM for Navier-Stokes equations
with open and traction boundary conditions, Journal of Computational Physics, to appear.

75
 C. TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES

APPENDIX C
IMBS TECHNICAL REPORTS, 2014-15

MBS 15-01
Colorisms: A python package for evolving linguistic color naming conventions within a
population of simulated agents
Sean Tauber

MBS 15-02
Modeling Decisions Involving Ambiguous, Vague, or Rare Events
Louis Narens and Donald Saari

MBS 15-03
On replacing “Quantum Thinking” with Counterfactual Reasoning
Louis Narens

MBS 15-04
Basis for Binary Comparisons and Non-Standard Probabilities
Donald Saari

MBS 15-05
Strategic and Behavioral Decompositin of Games
Daniel Jessie and Donald Saari

MBS 15-06
Decomposing Models of Bounded Rationality
Daniel Jessie and Ryan Kendall

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 D. FACULTY PRESENTATIONS

APPENDIX D
COLLOQUIA AND CONFERENCES OF IMBS MEMBERS, 2014-15

William Batchelder

Alexander, G. (Presenter), and Batchelder, W. H. A Cognitive Psychometric Model for the

Psychodiagnostic Assessment of Memory Related Deficits. Paper read at the Annual Meeting of
the Society for Mathematical Psychology. Quebec City, Canada, July 2014.

Satalich, T. A. (Presenter), Alexander, G. E., Batchelder, W. H., and Shankle, W. R. Markov

Models Detect Vitamin E and Denepezil Treatment Effect in ADCS MCI Trial. Alzheimer’s
Association International Conference (AAIC 2014). Copenhagen, July 2014.

Alexander, G. A., Satalich, T. A., Batchelder, W. H., and Shankle, W. R. Markov Models of
ADAS-Cog Memory Task Greatly Improve Signal-to-Noise Ratio for Detecting Change. Poster
Presented at Alazheimer’s Association International Conference (AAIC 2014). Copenhagen, July
2014.

Hu, X. (Presenter), and Batchelder, W. H. MPT & SRA: Research, Development, and Selected
Applications in Advanced Learning Environments. 11th Cross-Straits Conference on Educational
and Psychological Testing. National Taichung University of Education, Taiwan, August 2014.

Batchelder, W. H. Cognitive Psychometrics: Historical Setting and Examples from my Lab.

Asian-Pacific Conference on Computational Behavioral Science (APCCBS 2014). Seoul National
University, Seoul, South Korea, October 2014.

Batchelder, W. H. Cognitive Psychometrics & Cultural Consensus Theory. Paper read at forum on
Computational Behavioral Sciences. Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China. October
2014.

Alexander, G. E., Satalich, T. A., Batchelder, W. H., and Shankle, W. R. Application of Markov
Models to Word Recall Tasks to Improve Cognitive Assessment Capability for Better Trial
Management. Clinical trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD 2014). Philadelphia, November
2014.

Bill Branch

Workshop on Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomics, Bank of Finland, August 2014.

Southwest Search and Matching Workshop, U.C. Riverside, October 2014.

77
Seminar, New York Federal Reserve Bank, November 2014.

Society for Economic Dynamics, ASSA Annual Meetings, Boston, MA, January 2015.

American Economic Association, ASSA Annual Meetings, Boston, MA, January 2015.

Conference on the New Normal in Monetary Policy, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank,
February 2015.

“Bounded Rationality and Trading Inefficiencies” IMBS Colloquium, February 2015.

Jan Brueckner

ITEA Conference on Transportation Economics, Oslo, June 2015.

American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Mid-Year Meetings, Washington, DC,
May
2015. Plenary speaker.

OPTION Conference, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, April 2015.

University of Nevada, Reno, April 2015.

University of Georgia, March 2015.

University of Geneva, February 2015.

University of Lausanne, February 2015.

American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Meetings, Boston, January 2015.

Syracuse University, December 2014.

Cornell University, December 2014.

Regional Science Association International Meetings, Bethesda, November 2014.

University of Alberta, October 2014.

78
Carter Butts

Butts, Carter T. (11/2014). “Measuring ‘Bulk’ Online Communication Dynamics in Response to

Hazard Events: Some Methodological Innovations.” Invited Presentation, Hazard Communication
Workshop, University of Kentucky. Lexington, KY.

Butts, Carter T. (9/2014). Keynote Address, Applied Statistics 2014, Statistical Society of
Slovenia. “Statistical Models for Interaction Dynamics.” Ribno, Slovenia.

Butts, Carter T. (8/2014). “Measuring and Modeling Online Communication Dynamics in

Response to Hazard Events.” Keynote Address, KDD Workshop on Learning about Emergencies
from Social Information. New York, NY.

Butts, Carter T. (6/2015). “Collapsed ERGM Estimation for Multiple-network Models with
Hierarchical Baseline Effects.” 35th International Sunbelt Social Network Conference (INSNA),
Brighton, UK.

Fitzhugh, Sean M. and Butts, Carter T. (6/2015). “Spatial Excitation: Testing a Network
Activation Theory of Disaster-related Rumoring Activity.” 35th International Sunbelt Social
Network Conference (INSNA), Brighton, UK.

Gibson, C. Ben and Butts, Carter T. (6/2015). “Effects of Temporal Resolution Adjustments on
Dynamic Sexual Contact Models.” 35th International Sunbelt Social Network Conference
(INSNA), Brighton, UK.

Lee, Francis and Butts, Carter T. (6/2015). “Leveraging Network Inference for Efficient Data
Collection.” 35th International Sunbelt Social Network Conference (INSNA), Brighton, UK.

Phillips, Nolan E.; Sutton, Jeannette; Fitzhugh, Sean M.; League, Cedar; Johnson, Britta; Spiro,
Emma S.; Gibson, C. Ben; and Butts, Carter T. (6/2015). “Emergency Management
Interorganizational Networks.” 35th International Sunbelt Social Network Conference (INSNA),
Brighton, UK.

Yu, Yue; Gibson, C. Ben; and Butts, Carter T. (6/2015). “How to Know When Your Partner's
Sleeping Around: Imputing Concurrency in Dynamic Sexual Contact Networks.” 35th
International Sunbelt Social Network Conference (INSNA), Brighton, UK.

Cici, Blerim; Markopoulou, Athina; Gjoka, Minas; and Butts, Carter T. (4/2015) “Seasonal
Decomposition of Cell Phone Activity Series and Urban Dynamics.” NetMob 2015, Boston, MA.

Reed, Philip J.; Spiro, Emma S.; and Butts, Carter T. (3/2015). “Using Facebook Data to
Examine Culture and Self-Disclosure Behaviors.” iConference 2015, Newport Beach, CA.

79
Butts, Carter T. (8/2014). “A Novel Simulation Method for Binary Discrete Exponential
Families, with Application to Social Networks.” ASA Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Fitzhugh, Sean M.; Spiro, Emma S.; and Butts, Carter T. (8/2014). “Did You Feel It? Spatial
Filtering Techniques for Detection of Local Disaster Events.” ASA Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Smith, Emma J.; Marcum, Christopher S.; Almquist, Zack W.; Hipp. John R.; Nagle, Nicholas N.;
and Butts, Carter T. (8/2014). “The Relationship of Age to Personal Network Size, Relational
Multiplexity, and Proximity to Alters in the Western United States.” ASA Meeting, San
Francisco, CA.

Fitzhugh, Sean M.; Sutton, Jeannette; Butts, Carter T.; Spiro, Emma; Gibson, C. Ben; League,
Cedar; and Johnson, Britta. (6/2014). “Project HEROIC: Hazards, Emergency Response, and
Online Informal Communication.”39th Annual Natural Hazards Research and Applications
Workshop. Broomfield, CO.

Yaveroglu, Omer; Fitzhugh, Sean M.; Kurant, Maciej; Markopoulou, Athina; Butts, Carter T.; and
Przulj, Natasa. (6/2014). “ergm.graphlets: A Package for ERG Modeling Based on Graphlet
Statistics.” NetSci 2014. Berkeley, CA.

Spiro, Emma; Fitzhugh, Sean M.; Gibson, C. Ben; Sutton, Jeannette, and Butts, Carter T.
(5/2014). “Online Communication Dynamics During Natural Hazard Events.” 64th Annual
Conference of the International Communication Association. Seattle, WA.

Jean-Paul Carvalho

“Identity-Based Organizations”, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. 26 October 2014.

“Identity-Based Organizations”, University of Leicester. 29 October 2014.

“Identity-Based Organizations”, IMBS, UC Irvine. 20 November 2014.

“Identity-Based Organizations”, University of Western Australia. 2 December 2014.

“Identity-Based Organizations”, ASREC Conference, Boston. 21 March 2015.

“Identity-Based Organizations”, Summer Colloquium on the Economics of Identity, London. 28

June 2015.

“Education, Social Mobility and Religious Movements: The Islamic Revival in Egypt”,
Conference on Social Impacts of Economic Policies and Change, University of Heidelberg. 3
July 2015.

80
David Eppstein

“Flat foldings of plane graphs with prescribed angles and edge length”, contributed talk, Graph
Drawing, 2014, Würzberg, Germany.

“Planar induced sub-graphs of sparse graphs”, contributed talk, Graph Drawing, 2014, Würzberg,
Germany.

“Minimum forcing sets for Miura folding patterns”, contributed talk, 26th ACM-SIAM
Symposium. Discrete Algorithms, San Diego, California, January 2015.

Steve Frank

“Measurement invariance hierarchy and the relations between common probability distributions”,
Santa Fe Institute, May 2014.

“Measurement scale and dissipation of information shape biological pattern”, March 2014.

Three invited talks at Mathematical Biology meetings in Osaka Japan, July 28- August 1, 2014.

“Maladaptation and the paradox of robustness in evolution”, Mathematical Biology meetings in

Osaka Japan, July 29 - August 1, 2014.

“Somatic mosaicism: the big questions in cancer and neurodegeneration”, Mathematical Biology
meetings in Osaka Japan, July 28 – August 1, 2014.

“Patterns of nature: symmetries of measurement and randomness”, Plenary talk. Mathematical

Biology meetings in Osaka, Japan, July 28 – August 1, 2014.

“Cancer-like overgrowths and genomic regulatory design in microbes”, Cambridge, UK,

September 2014.

“The Common Patterns of Nature”, Institute for Advanced Study, Berlin, October 2014.

“Three Conjectures on Organismal Design”, IST Austria, June 2015.

Michelle Garfinkle

“Trading with the Enemy: Could the Classical Liberals be Right?” ASSA, January 2015.

Simon Huttegger

“Analogical Inference in Inductive Logic”, TARK 2015 at CMU Pittsburgh, June 2015.

81
“Analogical Inference in Inductive Logic”, IMBS, UC Irvine, June 2015.

“Inductive Learning in Small and Large Worlds”, University of Salzburg, April 2015.

“Cheaper Than Costly Signals: Experimental Evidence on Signaling Games”, UC Merced, April
2015.

“Analogical Predictive Probabilities, Workshop on Perspectives in Inductive Logic”, UC Irvine,

March 2015.

“Convergence to the Truth and the Metaphysics of Possible Worlds”, Kansas State University,
March 2015.

“How to Measure Phenotypic Variation”, PSA meeting in Chicago, November 2014.

“The Handicap Principle is an Artifact”, PSA meeting in Chicago, November 2014.

Kimberly A. Jameson

Jameson, K. A. & Winkler, A. (2014). “Preliminary findings on empirical investigations of

potential tetrachromacy.” Invited presentation at the Visual Perception Laboratory. University of
Nevada, Reno. July 25, 2014.

Jameson, K. A. & Winkler, A. (2014). “C.A.'s potential tetrachromacy.'' Presentation at “The

super vision soriee.” at The Abbey on 5th Avenue. San Diego, CA. August 15, 2014.

Jameson, K. A. & Winkler, A. (2014). “New results on color appearance space and the potential
for human tetrachromacy.” Presentation at the Annual Cognitive Sciences Association for
Interdisciplinary Learning (CSAIL). Hood River Valley, Oregon. August 2, 2014.

Jameson, K. A. (2015). ``Developing cloud-based educational resources for interdisciplinary

research.’' Invited presentation. Multidisciplinary Design Project Luncheon. Host: G.P. Li,
Director. Calit2 at UC Irvine. Irvine, CA. May 2015.

Jameson, K. A. (2015). “Do you see what I see? Investigating interpersonal comparisons of color
experience.” IMBS Friday Lunch Seminar, UC Irvine. January 23, 2015.

Jameson, K. A. (2015). “Interpersonal comparisons of color experience.”    Conference

presentation. Annual Summer Interdisciplinary Conference. Mammoth Lakes, California. July
15, 2015.

82
Marek Kaminski

“Voting methods for single-member districts and their properties”, Institute of Sociology, Warsaw
University, June 26, 2015.

“Voting methods for single-member districts and their properties”, Adam Smith Center, Warsaw,
June 24, 2015.

“Coalitionwise reversions in transitional democracies”, Public Choice Annual Conference, San

Antonio, March 2015.

“25 years after the fall of communism”, Adam Smith Center, Warsaw, July 2014.

L. Robin Keller

L. Robin Keller (presenter), Jay Simon, “Teaching Multi-Objective Multi-Stakeholder Decision

Modeling With Cases”, presented as a main talk at the 11TH International Workshop On
Operations Research, Havana, Cuba, March 10-13, 2015.

L. Robin Keller (poster presenter), with Tianjun Feng (UCI Merage doctoral alumnus, Associate
Professor at Fudan University), Ping Wu (Fudan University), Yifan Xu (Fudan University), “An
Empirical Study of the Toxic Capsule Crisis in China: Risk Perceptions and Behavioral
Responses”, Society for Risk Analysis, Dec. 7-10, 2014, Denver.

Yitong Wang (poster presenter, Merage alumnus, University of Technology, Sydney); Liangyan
Wang (Merage alumna, Shanghai Jiaotong University); L. Robin Keller, “Discounting over
Subjective Time: One Step towards a Unified Theory of Intertemporal Choice”, Society for
Judgment and Decision Making conference, Long Beach, Nov. 2014.

James Leonhardt (Merage alumnus, New Mexico State University, poster presenter); L. Robin
Keller, “Risk Perception of Multi-risk Options: Health Consumers' Perceived Vaccine Risk”,
Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference, Long Beach, Nov. 2014.

Jay Simon (co-presenter, Merage doctoral alumnus, Assistant Professor, Defense Resources
Management Institute, Naval Postgraduate School), Craig W. Kirkwood (W. P. Carey School of
Business, Arizona State University), L. Robin Keller (presenter), “Decision Analysis with
Geographically Varying Outcomes: Preference Models and Applications”. INFORMS National
meeting, San Francisco, Nov. 2014, in invited session on Spatial Analysis for Multicriteria
Decisions, chaired by Jay Simon.
Jiaru Bai (presenter, Merage doctoral student) and L. Robin Keller (co-author), “Markov Cost-
Effectiveness Analysis For Cancer Treatment”. INFORMS National meeting, San Francisco, Nov.
2014, in invited session on Spatial Analysis for Multicriteria Decisions, chaired by Jay Simon.

83
L. Robin Keller also attended the Decision Analysis Affinity Group (DAAG) conference and the
INFORMS Analytics conference, Spring 2015, Huntington Beach.

Natalia Komarova

Forecasting Evolution workshop, Lisbon, Portugal. July 2015.

Society of Molecular Biology and Evolution conference, Vienna, Austria. July 2015.
CAM seminar, Cornell. May 2015.
Biomathematics Symposium to honor of Dr. Carol Newton, UCLA. March 2015.
Mathematical Approaches to Breast Cancer Initiation and Dormancy meeting, Bethesda.

ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland. December 2014

Northwestern University, Chicago. November 2014.
Ecology and Evolution of Cancer, MBI, Columbus, Ohio. September 2014.

An invited lecture at a q-bio summer school 2014, Albuquerque, New Mexico. August 2014.

Igor Kopylove
“Framing in Expected Utility and Ambiguity Models”, University of Arizona, Tucson, December
2014.

“Comparative Ignorance and Context Dependent Beliefs”, Robustness Conference, UC Santa

Barbara, March 2015.

“Subjective Probability, Confidence, and Robustness”, IMBS, UC Irvine, January 2015.

“Framing in Expected Utility and Ambiguity Models”, IMBS, UC Irvine, April 2015.

Michael Lee

“Using Bayesian priors in psychological modeling”, Meeting of Society for Mathematical

Psychology, July 2014.

“Some advantages of Bayesian approaches for analyzing psychological models and data”, UCLA,
January 2015.

“Cognitive modeling and the wisdom of the crowd“, CMU, January 2015.

84
Simon Levin

“Validation and the Problem of Relevant Detail,” Validation: What Is It? Conference, University
of California, Institute for Mathematical and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine
(February 2015).

“Dealing with Public Goods and Common Pool Resources,” IMBS Colloquium, University of
California, Irvine (February 2015).

“Collective Motion, Collective Decision-Making, and Collective Action: From Microbes to

Societies,” MASpread/Rapid Trade Meeting, University of Arizona, Tempe, AZ (March 2015).

“Channeling Luca Pacioli: Multi-Disciplinarity and a Sustainable Future,” Lecture Given on

Receiving the Luca Pacioli Prize, Ca’Foscari University of Venice, Italy (March 2015).

“Dealing with Public Goods and Common Pool Resources,” The IGB Colloquium, Leibniz-
Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin (March 2015).

“Evolutionary Perspectives on Strategy,” Business Strategy Interfaces and Frontiers, PRISM

Foundation, New York, NY (May 2015).

“Cooperation in the Global Commons,” NetSci – International School and Conference on

Complex Networks, Zaragoza, Spain (June 2015).

“Bringing Theory to Real-World Systems,” Nurturing Ideas and Scientists in Ecology:

Symposium in Honor of Bill Robertson, ESA Annual Conference, Sacramento, CA (August
2014).

“Obstacles and Opportunities in Environmental Management,” The Stockholm Seminars:

Frontiers in Sustainability, Science and Policy, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences,
Stockholm, (September 2014).

“Microscopic Processes and Macroscopic Patterns” (with Juan Bonachela, University of

Strathclyde, Scotland), Advances in the Plankton Ecosystem Model and the Evaluation of
Biodiversity, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Shinagawa Campus (October
2014).

“Opportunities in Environmental Stewardship: The Value of Ecosystem Services,” The 2014 John
H. Rassweiler Annual Science Forum on Strategic Techniques and Innovations in Land
Preservation and Stewardship, D&R Greenway Land Trust, Princeton, NJ (October 2014).

“Obstacles and Opportunities in Environmental Management,” IIASA-Austrian Academy Lecture

Series, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (November 2014).
85
“Obstacles and Opportunities in Environmental Management,” Program in Science, Technology,
and Environmental Policy (STEP) Lecture Series, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
(November 2014).

Plenary Lecture, “Critical Transitions in Space and Time,” Spatio-Temporal Dynamics in Ecology
Workshop, Lorentz Center, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands (December 2014).

Plenary Lecture, “Critical Transitions in Space and Time,” Workshop on Mathematical Biology
and Nonlinear Analysis, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (December 2014).

Penelope Maddy

The Phi Beta Kappa-Romanell Lectures, June 8, 10, and 12, 2015, at UCI. (Because of mobility
limitations, I don’t travel.)

Michael McBride
Strategic Aspects of Terrorism, Conflict, and Security Workshop, Center for Game Theory in
Economics, Stony Brook University, “An Experimental Study of Dark Network Formation and
Disruption”, July 2014.

Caltech Mini-conference on Experimental Economics, “Identity and the Escalation of Conflict”,

November 2014.

Preferences for Conflict and Cooperation in International Affairs Conference, UCLA, "Identity
and the Escalation of Conflict”, January 2015.

Economic Science Institute Theory/Experiments Workshop, Chapman University, "Money

Affects Theory of Mind Differently by Gender", April 2015.

Claremont Behavioral and Experimental Economics Workshop, "Money Affects Theory of Mind
Differently by Gender" May 2015.

Louis Narens

“The Logical Structure of Contextual Effects”, Mathematical Psychology Meeting, Quebec City,
Canada. 2015.

“Measurement-theoretic and philosophic foundations of Stevens’ power law”, International

Society of Psychophysics Meeting, Lund, Sweden, 2014.

“The Logical Structure of Contextual Effects for Psychological Experimentation”, Winer

Memorial Lecture, Purdue, 2014.
86
“Measurement and the Meaningfulness Problem”, Philosophy of Science Meeting, Chicago, 2014.

“Probabilistic Frames for Non-Boolean Phenomena”, Plenary short talk. Fields Institute, Toronto,
Canada, 2015.

“Context and Probability”, Carnegie Mellon University, 2014.

“Issues in Center-Surround Color Perception”, Kiel University, Germany, 2015.

“Boolean Interpretations of Non-Boolean Probability Theories”, Conference talk at “Validation.

What is it?” IMBS, UCI February 2015.

Cailin O’Connor

“Modeling the Evolution of Guilt”, Philosophy Day, California State University, Long Beach,
Long Beach, CA. April 2015.

“Guilt as an Individual Level Benefit”, Philosophy of Science Conference, University of Southern

California, Los Angeles, CA. March 2015.

“Evolution, Models, and Philosophy”, Eastern American Philosophical Association Meeting,

Philadelphia, PA. December 2014

“Evolving to Generalize: Trading Speed for Precision”, The Center for Philosophy of Science,
University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA. December 2014

“Evolving to Generalize”, Conference on Agent Based Models in Philosophy, Munich Center for
Mathematical Philosophy, Ludwig Maximillian University, Munich, Germany. December 2014.

“Modeling the Underrepresentation of Women in Academia”, Conference on Feminist Philosophy

of Science, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. November 2014.

“Guilt as a Signal”, Philosophy of Science Association 2014 Biennial Meeting. Symposium:

“Moral Emotions: Approaches, Origins, and Ethics.” Chicago, IL. November 2014. Symposium
contribution.

Lisa Pearl

“Utility-based evaluation metrics for models of language acquisition: A look at speech

segmentation.” (with Lawrence Phillips), Workshop on Cognitive Modeling and Computational
Linguistics 2015, NAACL, Denver, Colorado. June 2015.
87
“Evaluation, use, and refinement of knowledge representations through acquisition modeling”,
GALANA Annual Meeting 2015, College Park, MD. February 2015.

“A different kind of success: Frequent frames identify useful grammatical categories in a signed
language.” (with Galia Barsever), Arizona Linguistics Circle 8, Tucson, Arizona. October 2014.

“Bayesian inference as a viable cross-linguistic word segmentation strategy: It’s all about what’s
useful.” (with Lawrence Phillips), 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Quebec
City, Canada. July 2014.

Donald Saari

Chair, Conference Board of Math Sciences Forum: “First two years of college math.”
Washington D.C., October 5 – 7, 2015.

“Paradoxes in voting and economics: What causes them?" at the conference: “Recent
developments on geometric and algebraic methods in economics”, Sapporo, Japan, August 2014.

Plenary, Keynote speaker, “Exploring Path Dependencies”, at the conference: “Quantum

Probability and the Modeling of Decision Making." Fields Institute, Toronto, CA, March 2015.

“Using geometry to understand voting mysteries”, presentation at the Hokkaido University,

Mathematics, Sapporo, Japan, August 2014.

“A next major challenge for systems analysis”, Invited presentation, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria, September 2014.

“Voting: How can it go so wrong?” This was a public lecture sponsored by The Royal Canadian
Institute for the Advancement of Science, October 2014.

“Mathematics and the mystery of ‘dark matter’”, Invited colloquium talk, The Fields Institute,
Toronto, Canada, October 2014.

“From Voting Paradoxes to the Search for `Dark Matter'” This was the featured MAA-AMS-
SIAM Gerald and Judith Porter Public Lecture at the annual Joint Math Meetings, January 2015.

Finding Geometric Answers to Voting Problems. A joint invited lecture with T. McIntee at an
invited session of voting and decision held at the Joint Math Meetings, San Antonio, TX, January
2015.

“Finding validation principles; going from parts to the whole”, conference talk at “Validation.
What is it?” IMBS, UC Irvine, February 2015.

88
“From Arrow's Theorem to Apportionment Problems”’ conference talk at “Behavioral Social
Choice,” IMBS, UC Irvine, March 2015.

“From the evolution of the universe to voting perversities”’ invited presentation at the Finlandia
Foundation, Pasadena, CA. February 2015.

“From voting paradoxes to the search for ‘dark matter’” 2015 Bullitt Public Lecture, University of
Louisville, March 2015.

“Paradoxes in voting: A mathematical explanation”, Colloquium, Mathematics, University of

Louisville, March 2015.

Stergios Skaperdas

“Guns, Lawyers, and Markets: Economic Consequences of Costly Conflict,” Workshop on Costs
of Destructive Entrepreneurship and Economic Performance, University of Paris I, Paris, March
31, 2015.

“Greece and the Eurozone: Background, Context, and Prospects,” Seminar, Department of
Economics, University of Paris VIII, March 30, 2015.

“Greece and the Eurozone: Background, Context, and Prospects,” Colloquium in Comparative
History and Social Theory, UCLA, March 9, 2015.

“Greece and the Eurozone: Background, Context, and Prospects,” CGPACS presentation, UCI,
February 12, 2015.

“Nation-Building through War,” Session “Theories of Conflict,” ASSA (AEA/PSSI) meetings,

Boston, MA, January 4, 2015.

“Trade in the Shadow of Power,” Invited Keynote speaker of theme day on “Food and Resources;
Conflict and Trade” of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC)
conference, San Diego, CA, December 2014.

“Policy Determination under Persuasive Lobbying,” Conference on “Contest Theory and Political
Competition,” Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance, Munich, September 2014.

Brian Skyrms

Economics-Biology Workshop Institute for Advanced Study, Toulouse University, June 2015.

Choice Group, London School of Economics, June 2015.

89
Peyton Young Conference, Oxford University, June 2015

Network Conference Institute for Social Sciences, U. C. Davis, May 2015.

Logic workshop University of Salzburg, April 2015.

Sawyer Seminar “Epistemic Value of Group Deliberation”, Northwestern University, January

2015.

David Kellogg Lewis Lecture Princeton University, November 2014.

Workshop on Naturalistic Approaches to Ethics NYU, October 2014.

Keynote DEON University of Ghent, July 2014.

Hal Stern

“Intro to ICS and Corporate Partnerships”, Southern California Society for Information
Management (SCSIM), Long Beach, CA, March 2015.

“A Statistical Approach to Detecting Patterns in Behavioral Event Sequences”, Department of

Biostatistics, University of California, San Diego, CA, November 2014.

“Bayesian Statistical Methods: When, When Not, and How to Use Them”, Data Science
Initiative, University of California, Irvine, CA (Kickoff event), October 2014.

“Statistics in the Practice of Forensic Statistics”, Joint Statistical Meetings, Boston, MA,
August 2014.

Participant, Panel on Working with Your Dean, Snowbird Computer Science Chair’s Meeting,
Snowbird, UT, July 2014.

Carole Uhlaner

“Relational Goods and Participation in a Revolt: An Approach to Understanding the Arab Spring
and the Role of Social Media”, coauthored with grad student Vahid Niayesh, Paper prepared for
presentation at the 73rd annual Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago,
IL, April 19th 2015.

90
 “The re-discovery of interpersonal relationships in economic and social life: an international
perspective”, Workshop School of the Economy of Communion, Istituto Universitario Sophia,
Loppiano, Italy. Featured Speaker. October 3, 2014.

“Relational Goods and Resolving the Paradox of Political Participation”, School of Political
Sciences, Department of Political and Social Sciences, Department of Sociology and Economic
Law, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, Large lecture. Featured Speaker. October 2, 2014.

“Relational Goods and Participation in a Revolt: An Approach to Understanding the Arab Spring
and the role of Social Media”, School of Political Sciences, Department of Political and Social
Sciences, Department of Sociology and Economic Law, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy,
Colloquium Seminar. Featured Speaker. October 1, 2014.

“The Effect of Descriptive Representation on Participation: Race, Ethnicity, Gender and Voter
Turnout Across the States”, MZES, Mannheim Center for European Social Research, Mannheim,
Germany, Colloquium MZES Department B. Presenter & Author. September 29, 2014.

“Clarifying ‘Political Participation’ by Considering Why We Care About It”, Conceptualizing

Political Participation Conference, PartiRep Network, University of Leuven, University of
Mannheim MZES, Panel: Participation and Democracy, Mannheim. September 25, 2014.

James Weatherall

“The Physics of Wall Street”, American Association of Individual Investors, San Diego Chapter.
San Diego, CA. April 2015.

“Fiber Bundles, Yang-Mills Theory, and General Relativity”, The Irvine-Munich Workshop on
the Foundations of Classical and Quantum Field Theories, Munich Center for Mathematical
Philosophy, Ludwig-Maximilians Universitat. Munich, Germany. December 2014.

“Theoretical Structure and Theoretical Equivalence”, Department of Philosophy. University of

California. La Jolla, CA. December 2014.

“The Physics of Wall Street”, Department of Physics, Texas Tech University. Lubbock, TX.
November 2014.

“Inertial Motion, Explanation, and the Foundations of Classical Field Theory”, Department of
Philosophy. Texas Tech University. Lubbock, TX. November 2014.

“The Physics of Wall Street”’ 2014 Institutional Trading Summit (Keynote Speaker). Savannah,
GA. November 2014.

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“Understanding Gauge”, Philosophy of Science Association 2014 Biennial Meeting. Symposium:
“Formal Methods in Philosophy of Science”, November 2014. (Symposium contribution.)

Panel Discussion on “Bridging the Philosophy / Science Divide”, with C. Lee, S. Mitchell, and E.
Sober. Philosophy of Science Association 2014 Biennial Meeting. Chicago, IL. November 2014.

“The Physics of Wall Street”, American Association of Individual Investors, Orange County
Chapter. Costa Mesa, CA. October 2014.

Jack Xin

Metz, France May 11-13, 2015 International Conference on Recent Advances in Applied and
Computational Mathematics, May 27, 2015, Wuhan, China.

Proceeding: Y. Lou, S. Osher, J. Xin, “Computational Aspects of Constrained L1 -L2

Minimization for Compressive Sensing”, in Proc. 3rd International Conference on Modelling,
Computation and Optimization in Information Systems and Management Sciences (MCO2015),
eds. H.A. Le Thi, T.Pham Dinh, N.T. Nguyen, Springer Series in Advances in Intelligent
Systems and Computing 359, Metz, France, 2015.

International Workshop on Optimization, Sparsity, & Adaptive Data Analysis, March 18, 2015,
Beijing, China.

“Statistics & Computational Interface to Big Data", International Conference at IAS, HKUST,
Hongkong, Jan 7, 2015.

Third International conference on Modelling, Computation and Optimization in Information

Systems and Management Sciences, MCO 2015

Math Analysis Seminar, Inst. Mittag Leffler, Oct. 4, 2014.

Math Physics Seminar, Univ. Helsinki, Oct. 1, 2014.

Mathematics Colloquium, Univ. Wisconsin at Madison, Sept 26, 2014.

Hongkai Zhao

Mathematics Department Colloquium, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. May 4, 2015.

Applied Mathematics Seminar, Stanford University. May 15, 2015.

CSCAMM seminar, University of Maryland. January 28, 2015.

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Applied Mathematics Seminar, Caltech. November 2014.

Numerical Analysis Seminar, North Carolina State University. October 2014.

Applied Mathematics Seminar, Duke University. October 2014.

(Plenary) Conference on Waves and Inverse Problems, in honor of Bill Symes' 60th birthday,
Michigan State University, April 2015.

BIRS (BANFF) workshop on Numerical Optimal Transportation, Banff, Canada, February 2015.

(Keynote) Statistics and Computational Interface to Big Data, IAS of HKUST, January 2015.
(declined)

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Defect Problems in Materials Science, IAS of HKUST,
December 2014.

(Plenary) International Conference on Inverse Problems and Optimal Control, The Chinese
University of Hong Kong, December, 2014.

International Conference on Applied Mathematics, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,
December, 2014.

(Plenary) The 6th Annual National Conference on Inverse Problems in China, Harbin, China, July
2014.

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 E. FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS

APPENDIX E
IMBS FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS, 2014-15

William Batchelder

Appointed Advisory Board Member National Key Laboratory, Central China Normal University,
Wuhan, China. 2015.

Appointed to Editorial Advisory Board Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 2014.

Bill Branch

Received the 2015 School of Social Sciences Teaching Innovation Award.

Jan Brueckner

2015 Quigley Medal Recipient.

Carter Butts

Elected to the Council of the ASA Section on Mathematical Sociology. Sean Fitzhugh
(Sociology) is completing his PhD this month and transitioning to a postdoctoral research position
at the Army Research Lab. Fitzhugh's skills in network analysis, computationally intensive data
collection, and simulation have been key to both the success of his dissertation project, and to his
successful job search. Sean's work deals with communication during disasters, a problem of
considerable public significance; his work, and career to date, illustrate the value of IMBS at
training students to take on difficult and important scientific problems with practical implications
for public health and safety.

Jean- Paul Carvalho

Visiting scholar, Nuffield College, Oxford, October 13 – November 8, 2014.

Steve Frank

I headed the research group on Gene Regulation and Organismal Diversity at the Institute for
Advanced Study, Berlin, during my sabbatical 2014 - 2015, with a lot of quantitative aspects of
biology and also some game theory applications to biology.

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David Eppstein

I was named a Chancellor's Professor by UCI in 2014.

Michelle Garfinkel

Served on editorial boards for the following publications: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal
of Macroeconomics, Journal of Economics and Business, Defense and Economics, European
Journal of Political Economy.

Simon Huttegger

Chancellor’s Fellow, UCI, 2013-2016.

Kimberly A. Jameson

May 2015: Invitation to serve as a National Science Foundation IBSS program advisory panel
member. NSF’s Interdisciplinary Behavioral and Social Science Research (IBSS) competition is
an interdisciplinary competition in the Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences
(SBE) at NSF.

Calit2-UROP 2014-2015 Multidisciplinary Design Project Award: “Designing Generalizable

Crowdsourcing Methods for Large-Scale Database Transcription and Digitalization.”

Faculty: Kimberly A. Jameson, IMBS (Project Lead), IMBS; Ian G. Harris, Computer Science;
Sergio Gago, Calit2; and Sean Tauber, IMBS.

Calit2-UROP 2014-2015 Multidisciplinary Design Project Award: “Evolving Self-Organizing

Information Systems: Pragmatic Algorithms for Communicating Information.” Faculty Mentors:
Louis E. Narens (Project Lead), Cognitive Sciences; Kimberly A. Jameson, IMBS; Dominik
Wodarz, Ecology & Evolutionary Biology; Natalia Komarova, Mathematics; and Sean Tauber,
IMBS.

2015 SURF-IT Research Project Award. Title: Cloud-Based Tools to Empower

Interdisciplinary Research: A Case Study on the Mesoamerican Color Survey Data Archive.
Faculty Mentor: Dr. Kimberly A. Jameson, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences
Description: Additional Faculty Mentors: Sergio Gago, Ph.D. California Institute for
Telecommunications and Information Technology.

2013 - present: Advisory Board Member. ``New Horizon's Message Initiative'' and ``One
Earth: New Horizons Message''. (www.oneearthmessage.org).

The Encyclopedia of Color Science and Technology:

2010 - present: Associate Field Editor of the ``Language and Cognition'' section of the
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Encyclopedia of Color Science and Technology.

Community Service City of Newport Beach, CA:

October 2006 -- present. Appointed member of the City of Newport Beach Environmental
Quality Affairs Committee.

Student Support and/or Supervision:

Cognitive Sciences Honors Student Project: Prutha S. Deshpande, Cognitive Sciences

Campus-Wide Honors Student Project Advisor: Erin H. Moon, Psychology and Social Behavior
IMBS Associate Specialist, Sean Tauber (01/2015 to present)
IMBS Assistant Specialist, Alissa D. Winkler (through 06/2015).
Mentor for Multidisciplinary Design Project Awardees: Hiten Ram Bhakta (Graduate Student,
Computer Science), Nathanial Benjamin, Zhimin Xiang (Graduate Student, Calit2), Prutha
Deshpande, Yang Jiao, and Stephanie Chang, Arun Shivaramakrishna, Henry Gruig, Bojun Jiao,
Phillip Pachigalla, Katie Khuun, David Luke Massatt, and Jungkyu Park.

Eight poster presentations at The 22nd Annual UCI Undergraduate Research Symposium.
May 16, 2015. Irvine, CA:

(1) Designing Crowdsourcing Methods for the Transcription of Handwritten Documents.

Stephanie Chang
Mentors: Sergio Gago, Ian Harris ̧  Kimberly Jameson

(2) A Cultural Consensus Theory Analysis of Crowdsourced Transcription Data.

Prutha Deshpande
Mentors: Sergio Gago, Ian Harris, Kimberly A. Jameson

(3) An Affordance Based Approach to Large Data-Set Navigation.

Nathanial Benjamin
Mentors: Sergio Gago, Ian Harris, Kimberly A. Jameson

(4) Optical Character Recognition of Handwritten Tabular Data.

Yang Jiao
Mentors: Sergio Gago, Ian Harris, Kimberly Jameson,

(5) Color Categorization Model with Punishment/Reward Emphases.

David Massatt, Philip Pachigalla
Mentors: Kimberly Jameson, Natalia Komarova, Louis Narens, Sean Tauber, Dominik Wodarz

(6) Simulating the Evolution of Color Categories using Individual Reinforcement Learning
Models in Populations of Artificial Agents.
Jungkyu Park
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Mentors: Kimberly Jameson, Natalia Komarova, Louis Narens, Sean Tauber, Dominik Wodarz

(7) The Effect of Asymmetric Information on Learning Models of Color Categorization in

Artificial Agent Populations.
Bojun Jiao
Mentors: Kimberly Jameson, Natalia Komarova, Louis Narens, Sean Tauber, Dominik Wodarz

(8) Comparing Different Learning Models of Color Categorization in Artificial Agent Population.
Katie Khuu
Mentors: Kimberly Jameson, Natalia Komarova, Louis Narens, Sean Tauber, Dominik Wodarz

Campus-wide Honors Thesis Research Advising: Erin H. Moon (PSB undergraduate). Thesis
Title: Triad Investigations of Color Appearance Similarity Relations in Korean-English
Bilinguals. June 2015. University of California, Irvine.

Cognitive Sciences Honors Thesis Research Advising: Deshpande, P.S. (Cognitive Sciences
undergraduate). Investigating Color Categorization Behaviors in Korean-English Bilinguals.
Submitted for publication in UCI Undergraduate Research Journal. Volume XVIII. Awarded
Best Honors Thesis, Cognitive Sciences Department, University of California, Irvine. June 2015.

2014-2015 Ad Hoc REVIEWING:

Journal of Vision
Color Research & Application
Journal of the Optical Society of America
Cognition
PNAS  

L. Robin Keller

Serve as editorial board member for Decision Analysis.

President, 2015, INFORMS (The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences,
www.informs.org).
Past-President- 2016, (The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences,
www.informs.org).
Marek Kaminski

Reviews of my book Games Prisoners Play.

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Igor Kopylov

Referee reports: American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Economic Theory,

Economic Theory, Operations Research, Journal of Mathematical Economics.

Associate Editor: Theoretical Economics.

Simon Levin

Honorary Doctorate of Science, McMaster University (award ceremony Fall 2015).

Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement.

Luca Pacioli Prize, Ca’Foscari University of Venice, Italy.

Elected Foreign Member, Istituto Lombardo, Milan.

IIASA Distinguished Visiting Fellow.

Penelope Maddy

The Phi Beta Kappa-Romanell Professorship -- ‘intended to recognize not only distinguished
achievement but also the recipient’s contribution or potential contribution to public understanding
of philosophy.’ There was a $7500 prize and the opportunity to deliver the public lectures in #3
above.

Interview in the online literary magazine, 3am:

http://www.3ammagazine.com/3am/the-stuff-of-proof/.

Michael McBride

Promotion to (full) Professor of Economics.

Media attention, World Journal, Chen Ying Lin, “Spectators Drawn to Study Go Tournament,”
March 2015.

Cailin O’Connor

Co-organizer for the Perspectives on Gender Conference held at UCI, Fall 2014.

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Lisa Pearl

Recipient of the 2015 Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching Award, Fall Quarter 2014, School of
Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine.

Online publication about my work: “Evaluating models of language acquisition: are utility metrics
useful?” by Emmanuel Dupoux, published in The Synthetic Learner Blog,
http://bootphon.blogspot.com/2015/05/models-of-language-acquisition-machine.html. Review of
Phillips & Pearl (2015), Utility-based evaluation metrics for models of language acquisition: A
look at speech segmentation.

2010-current Organizer and faculty leader of the interdisciplinary discussion group

“Computational Models of Language”: http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~lpearl/colareadinggroup/.

Dale Poirier

Associate Editor, Journal of Econometrics.

Invitation to nominate candidates for 2015 The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Science in
Memory of Alfred Nobel.

Donald Saari

Site Review Committee, Banff International Research Station, Banff Alberta, April 2015.

Chair, Governing Council, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna.

Chair, Section 32, National Academy of Sciences.

Chair, Conference Board of Mathematics Sciences.

Chair; NRC Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications.

Faculty “Honorary Member,” UCI Golden Key Honor Society.

Stergios Skaperdas

Keynote speaker at International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) conference,

San Diego, CA, December 2014.

Hal Stern

Chair, American Statistical Association (ASA), Committee on Publications, 2015 – present.

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Chair, External Review Committee, Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, PA, 2015
– present.

Member, Advisory Committee for AAAS/Arnold Foundation, “Quality and Gap Analysis of the
Forensic Science Literature”, 2014 – present.

Chair, Editor Search Committee, Journal of American Statistical Evidence, Organizations of

Scientific Area Committees, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), 2014 –
present.

Chair, National Academy of Sciences Panel on Research Methodologies for Understanding Driver
Fatigue, 2013 – present.

Vice Chair, Ad Hoc Advisory Committee on Forensic Statistics, American Statistical Association,
2012 – present.

Douglas White
Recognized as the founder of the Social Science Gateway for Comparative Analysis and its
instructional and research capabilities and was honored by the founders of Science Gateways by
asking him for a letter of recommendation for NSF renewal for the major grant renewing the
development of Science Gateways for the Sciences generally.

Working on implementing a Science Gateway funded that provides a research and instructional
site at his UCI http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/ supporting an online Complex Social Sciences
Gateway. On July 14, 2014 at the San Diego Supercomputer he gave a talk, the second of two, to
the Science Gateways Community, ECSS: the Extended Collaborative Support Services of
XSEDE, which hosts a monthly symposium. ECSS provides me with NSF funding for Argonne
National Laboratory programs to develop and improve the CoSSci Gateway for the third year.

As Emeritus Professor I assist former TA, Assistant Professor Ren Feng in Sociology at Xiamen
University, China, in teaching a course that is fully organized around White’s UCI Complex
Social Sciences Gateway and its access system at http://socscicompute.ss.uci.edu.

Continuation as External Research Professor, Santa Fe Institute, 2009-2016.

Jack Xin

Elected, Member-at-Large, Mathematics Section of the American Association for the

Advancement of Science, to serve a 4 year term starting February 17, 2015.

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 F. FACULTY ADVISING

APPENDIX F
GRADUATE STUDENTS AFFILIATED WITH IMBS

(i) Current Student Participants and their IMBS Advisors

(* advanced to Ph.D. candidacy; ** received Ph.D. during year)
Student Advisor
* Kalin Agrawal Batchelder
* Gregory Alexander Batchelder
** Blake Allison McBride/Skaperdas
Jerrod Anderson Carvalho/McBride
Brian Asquith Brueckner
** Jiwon Baek Brueckner
Jiaru Bai Keller
Beth Baribault Vandekerckhove
Galia Bar-sever Pearl
Michael J. Bannister Eppstein
Zach Becker Eppstein
Andrew Berdahl Levin
Mark Bloxsom McBride/Skaperdas/McBride
Bonnie Bui Faust
Justin Bruner Huttegger/Skyrms
Eleanor Brush Levin
Michael Caldara McBride
Anne Carpenter McBride/Skaperdas
Eric Casavant Butts
Charlotte Chang Levin
Jack Zhanpeng Cheng Eppstein
Stephen Cole Branch
Andrew Colopy Kaminski/Skaperdas
Scott Crawford Smyth
Irina Danileiko Lee/Vandekerckhove
Tyler Dean Chubb
Archie Delshad Kaminski
* William E. Devanny Eppstein
Steve Doubleday McBride/Skaperdas
Chris DuBois Smyth
Christopher Elias Branch
Ali Esmaeeli Keller
Ben Feintzeig Weatherall
Jie Feng Zhao
Nikki Fider Komarova
Katelyn Finley Kaminski
Sean Fitzhugh Butts
Samuel Fletcher Weatherall
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 Jimmy Foulds Smyth
Andrew Frank Smyth
Emma Fuller Levin
Ben Gibson Butts
Nancy Gonzalez Narens
** Giorgio Gosti Batchelder
Hongyang (Maime) Guan Lee/Vandekerckhove
Michael Guggisberg Poirier
Santiago Guisasola Narens
Lisa Guo Narens
Christopher Ha Branch
Yuhong He Keller
Kevin Heins Stern
Christian Herrera Chubb
Michael Ho Xin
Candice Huynh Keller
Matt Inverso Chubb
** Fan Jiang Bruekner/Carvalho
** Justin Jarvis Brueckner
** Kip Jackson Brueckner
** Rolf Johnson Narens
** Deven Kapadia Poirier
John Kennison Butts
Katelyn Finley Kaminski
Alex Keena Kaminski
Bart Knijnenburg Keller
Alejandro Komai McBride
Si-Yuan Kong Brownstone/McBride
Colin Kupitz Vandekerckhove
Paulos Lakew Brueckner
Simon Leblanc Levin
Francis Lee Butts
** Michael Lefors Brueckner
William Leibzon Narens
David Licata Branch
Robert Lichtman Sperling
Alicia Lloro Small
** Xiaolong Long Xin
** Dan Luo Brueckner
Timmi Ma Komarova
Amine Mahmassani Brownstone/McBride
Joshua Malnight Uhlaner
Daniel Mann Chubb
* Brian Marion Hoffman
Justin Mark Hoffman
** Thomas McIntee Saari
Lisa McManus Levin
Greg McWhirter Skyrms
Peter Miller Uhlaner
Percy Mistry Keller
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 Chris Mitsch Weatherall
David Montelongo Butts
Abraham Morrison Huttegger
* Tolga Oztan White
Erick Peterson Carvalho/McBride
Lawrence Phillips Pearl
Andrew Porter McBride
Garret Ridinger McBride/Skaperdas
Jacquelyne Rische Komarova
Patty Rodda Kaminski
Marian Rogers Weatherall
Sarita Rosenstock Weatherall
Hannah Rubin Huttegger
Michael Sacks Carvalho/McBride
K.J. Savinelli Pearl
Ryan Shirah Uhlaner
Joseph Simons Eppstein
Linley Slipetz O’Connor
Emma Smith Butts
Shawn Strausser Butts
Paul Stroik McBride
Andrew Tilman Levin
** Heidi Tucholski Saari
** Andrea Vandom McGann
Jamie Wang Brueckner
Alex Washburne Levin
Patricia Wellmeyer Keller
Cole Willaims Carvalho
Andrew Wisti D’Zmura
* Dan Wolf Kaminski
Tim Wong Brownstone
Howard Yang Chubb
Penghang Yin Xin
* Shuai Zhang Xin
Xuhong Zhang Butts
Penghe Zu Xin

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 G. VISITORS TO IMBS

APPENDIX G
VISITOR’S LETTERS

Donald G. Saari, Director

Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences
University of California
Irvine, CA 926797-5100

Dear Don,

This year, I spent most of January and February at UCI, primarily based in IMBS, but
also with an affiliation with Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. I gave two lectures during
that period,

(1) IMBS Workshop on Validation: Validation and the problem of relevant detail

This workshop dealt with the crucial problem of model validation, and what it means. This
lecture focused on the identification of the objectives of the model, and the scale at which
description is relevant. It distinguished among modeling for understanding, prediction and
management, and emphasized that overly detailed models can be as ineffective as those without
sufficient details, depending on the purposes of the modeling. In conclusion, what it means to
validate a model depends critically on objectives and scale of description; validation often should
be an iterative process involving finding the scale of detail at which prediction is robust; and the
problem of validation is thus closely related to issues of scaling, simplification and coarse graining

(2) IMBS Colloquium: Dealing with public goods and common pool resources

Dealing with public goods and common pool resources is a problem that faces organisms from
microbes to human societies, and poses great challenges with reference to global environmental
problems like climate change. Much can be learned from how evolution has dealt with such
problems, and human societies rely on insurance arrangements, social norms, regulations and
laws to avoid tragedies of the commons. As the scale of the ensemble increases, however,
cooperation becomes more difficult to achieve. Global environmental management, therefore,
will need to develop new approaches, possibly building on modularity and Vincent and Elinor
Ostrom’s notions of polycentricity. This lecture will explore various dimensions of this problem.
Furthermore, I met on a regular basis with Adam Martiny (ESS/EEB), Steve Allison (EEB) and
their research groups in connection with our NSF grant. During that period, in which two of my
postdoctoral fellows also visited, we made substantial progress on research and publications,
and began discussing the first stages of a new grant proposal.

I also met with you, discussing science and professional issues, including those related to the
international global environmental institution, IIASA. We both attended the local meetings of
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 the NAS and the US NMO for IIASA. I also met with Natasha Komarova and Dominik Wodarz
to discuss a possible joint project on demography, and had less formal interactions with Qing
Nie, Fred Wan, Arthur Lander, Francisco Ayala, Susan Bryant, David Gardiner, Kimball
Romney and others. I also served as the local host for IMBS Colloquium speaker Carl
Bergstrom, and of course attended other seminars and colloquia.

Throughout the period, I carried out research on public goods, on ocean modeling, on
collective decision-making and on other topics.

Simon Levin
Professor, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Princeton

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