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India - Telecom Rural survey and 1Q

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15 July 2019 Institutional Equities

1Q: JIO’s extent of outperformance to narrow Figure 1: 1QFY20 estimates


Rs m Bharti VIL BHIN JIO
DD MMM YYYY
From our visits to 10 stores across 5 villages and small towns in Revenue 209,998 116,391 35,841 116,784
Maharashtra (MH) as well as interactions with distributors in % QoQ growth 1.9% -1.2% -0.5% 5.2%
Mumbai and Bangalore, we gathered that: 1) there is little Ebitda 67,529 15,026 14,350 37,437
subsidy leakage on JioPhone, but hanging and over-heating % QoQ growth 1.8% -15.8% -3.8% -13.5%
were mentioned as pain points; 2) JIO’s smartphone sub adds Ebit 11,881 (31,324) 8,937 26,977
have been steady in recent months; 3) Bharti and VIL’s
% QoQ growth 4.4% -5.1% 4.5%
minimum ARPU transition is complete and, in many cases,
customers have retained the SIM and are paying Rs35; and 4) PAT (11,240) (37,382) 5,691 8,827
Bharti and VIL have recently increased emphasis on subscriber % QoQ growth -6.3% 5.1%
acquisition vs. retention. In 1Q, we expect QoQ revenue growth Source: Company, IIFL Research
of 5%/2%/-1% for JIO/Bharti mobile/VIL. BHIN is likely to Note that both Bharti and VIL had one-off gains of Rs2bn at the Ebitda level in 4QFY19. Adjusted for
have a muted quarter. these, underlying Ebitda is likely to grow ~5% for Bharti and decline 5% for VIL
VIL strong in rural MH; JIO also sells: We visited places within a JIO’s Ebitda is expected to decline, as it pays infrastructure usage charges to tower and fibre SPVs
~250km radius of Mumbai, including villages 50km away from the from 1QFY20
Mumbai-Nashik Highway. Our key findings: 1) JIO’s/Bharti’s network
was available for 70%/40% during our journey, but our driver with an Figure 2: We completed a round-trip of ~450km, traversing deep into rural MH
Idea SIM had 90% network availability. Idea’s 900 holdings in MH seem
to be at play; 2) The Rs99 plan is the most popular JioPhone plan; most
villagers cited WhatsApp and YouTube as their favourite apps; 3)
VIL/JIO recharges see healthy traction; and 4) we found JIO/Bharti’s
coverage and recharge coupons to be completely absent in a village.
JioPhone slows down in urban areas: Distributor interactions
suggest that there has been some slowdown in JioPhone. Distributors
did not attribute this to the thriving used-smartphone market, though in
our view this could be a factor. Bharti is doing well in Mumbai and
Bangalore, which we think is partly due to JIO’s capacity constraints.
JIO has made limited inroads into the post-paid market.
1QFY20 − JIO’s extent of outperformance to narrow: We expect
JIO’s QoQ rev. growth to be ~5% in 1Q vs. ~7% in 4QFY19, despite an
extra day. Bharti’s India mobile rev. should grow ~2%, despite no
tailwind from minimum ARPU plan. With tower and fibre sale affecting Source: IIFL Research
JIO’s Ebitda (but PBT neutral), we expect 13.5% QoQ drop. Underlying
Ebitda would grow ~5% for Bharti and decline 5% for VIL. We build in
~4% QoQ Ebitda decline for BHIN.

G V Giri gvgiri@iiflcap.com Balaji Subramanian | balaji.subramanian@iiflcap.com |


91 22 4646 4676 91 22 4646 4644
Institutional Equities India - Telecom

Rural survey: VIL strong; JIO also sells • Most shopkeepers acknowledged the presence of a used smart-
phone market, but did not suggest that this has intensified or has
had an adverse impact on JioPhone sales. Most of the top-ups for
• Throughout our journey (a 50km detour from the Mumbai-Nashik JioPhone are for the Rs99 plan. However, multiple shopkeepers
Highway to villages in the Nashik and Ahmednagar districts), we mentioned heating and hanging issues with JioPhone. The initial
found that JIO’s network coverage was available for 70% of the time friction point of JioPhone being a single SIM phone, thereby
and Bharti’s was available for 40%. Our driver, who had an Idea hampering the customer’s flexibility, also persists.
SIM, had the network available 90% of the time. Idea’s 900 holdings
• Many villagers consume most data on WhatsApp and YouTube.
in Maharashtra seem to be at play.
Some of them also use JIO TV to catch up on TV shows during their
• In one of the villages we visited (about 40km from the Mumbai- lunch break at the farm. A few of them end up consuming their
Nashik Highway and 160km from Mumbai), we were surprised to 0.5GB/day quota on the Rs99 plan.
find that neither JIO nor Bharti have network coverage (not even
• On the smartphone plan top-ups, JIO’s Rs399 per 84-day plan
Bharti’s 2G network coverage). A store does not even keep JIO and
remains the most popular, as does Bharti and VIL’s Rs199 per 28-
Bharti SIM cards due to lack of network availability. We were also
day plan. Both these observations remain unchanged from our last
told that only VIL and BSNL networks are available there and that
rural survey, a few months ago.
VIL had launched 4G, ten days ago.
• Dual-SIM phenomenon has slightly abated, but remains prevalent.
• In another village, we observed a digging machine, and the locals
mentioned that JIO has brought it, in order to lay fibre.

• In many of the villages, VIL and JIO recharges see more traction.
VIL’s network experience (on both 2G and 4G) was described as
good.

• Cheap Chinese 2G handsets continue to be popular in rural areas.


We noticed brands like Ziox and Itel, which we had seen during
earlier visits, and a new one called ‘E-Best’, in shops. They span the
Rs800-1,500 price points. These shops also sold JioPhone, handsets
from Karbonn, Intex and even Samsung.

• JioPhone sales seem to be witnessing steady sales in these areas.


Compared to our previous visit, we encountered many more people
using JIO Phone this time.

• We did not witness any instance of diversion of subsidy. In our


previous field visit, we had seen that dealers at times try and pocket
the subsidy by procuring a cheap Chinese phone and turning that in
to JIO and getting the Rs1500 phone for Rs500 only, and not
passing the subsidy fully to the customer. JIO seems to have
succeeded in curbing this.

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Figure 3: Dhamangaon Pat: A village where neither JIO nor Bharti is present Figure 4: A snapshot of Dhamangaon Pat village

Source: IIFL Research

Source: IIFL Research

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Figure 5: Kothale – A village where all three telcos’ networks are reasonably good Figure 1: An outlet in Kothale village

Source: IIFL Research

Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Figure 2: A store selling handsets in Akole; note JioPhone display at the bottom-most
rack
Bharti doing well in Mumbai and Bangalore;
JioPhone slows down
We also spoke with distributors of multiple telcos in Mumbai and
Bangalore. The following are the key takeaways:

• There has been some slowdown in JioPhone. Distributors did not


attribute this to the thriving used-smartphone market, though we
believe this is a factor.

• On the pre-paid smartphone plans front, JIO continues to see steady


subscriber adds.

• Bharti eliminated the Rs249 post-paid plan and now, the Rs399 plan
is its cheapest. JIO continues to have Rs199 post-paid plan, but
Bharti’s post-paid hike suggests that this Rs199-plan of JIO has had
limited traction. International roaming deals being few and
enterprise thrust yet to gain momentum could be the reasons.

• Most Bharti distributors we spoke to talked about varying degrees of


MoM revenue growth in recent months. We suspect that JIO’s
capacity constraints in metros have played a part here.

• Most of Bharti and VIL’s subscribers have moved to the minimum


ARPU plan. Majority of them ended up up-trading to Rs35 as against
discarding their SIM.

• JIO pays 9% to the trade channel for the offline recharges, split as
6.5% to the retailer and 2.5% to the distributor. Bharti and VIL pay
2.5% to the retailer and 1.25% to the distributor; however, both
have recently increased emphasis on subscriber acquisition vs.
retention. While their basic payout structure remains 2.5%+1.25%,
Source: Company, IIFL Research
they set acquisition target-related payouts where, in some cases,
they end up matching JIO on total trade channel payouts.

• A distributor mentioned that Bharti overtook Vodafone as the leader


in Mumbai’s pre-paid segment. He has also seen the gap narrow in
the post-paid segment.

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1QFY20: JIO’s extent of outperformance to Figure 3: QoQ DRR growth − JIO’s extent of outperformance diminishing

narrow (Daily revenue runrate, QoQ)


15%
Bharti VIL JIO

In recent quarters, there has been a divergence between the subscriber 10%
base and adds reported by Bharti and VIL to TRAI vs. those reported to
the stock exchanges, which have tightened their subscriber definition 5%
norm. On the other hand, JIO reports the same number to both TRAI
and the exchanges. JIO added ~8m subs in April, as per TRAI. We 0%
expect it to have maintained a similar run-rate in May and June.
-5%
We expect QoQ revenue growth of 5%/2%/-1% for JIO/Bharti
India mobile/VIL: We expect JIO’s ARPU to be under pressure,
-10%
considering: 1) more cash backs, since a higher proportion of subs are 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20
topping up using MyJIO app; and 2) JioPhone’s Rs99 plan continuing to
see uptake. We build in 3% QoQ ARPU decline, despite one extra day in Source: Companies, IIFL Research
1Q and sports events such as the IPL and the Cricket World Cup.
Consequently, we estimate ~5% QoQ revenue growth.
JIO - 1QFY20 to see the impact of fibre and tower demerger: JIO,
Bharti and VIL benefitted from tailwinds from the minimum ARPU plan in its analyst meet post 4QFY19 results, mentioned that the demerger
in 4Q (which we estimate at ~4ppt); this helped them sport a 6.5% and of its fibre and tower assets to SPVs would be PBT neutral at the JIO
2.3% daily revenue run-rate (DRR) growth respectively in 4Q. 1Q is level. This transaction would result in higher opex in the form of infra
unlikely to see any uplift on account of this factor. We consequently usage charges for JIO, but also bring down depreciation and interest.
expect QoQ DRR change of 1%/-2% for Bharti/VIL. QoQ revenue Our note here mentions the potential impact on JIO’s financials from the
growth would be 1% higher than this. above transaction. We see some reduction in employee costs, as some
If one removes the ~4ppt spurt for Bharti and VIL in 4Q, JIO’s extent of of these are moved to the SPVs. We further expect some reduction in
outperformance vs. peers is likely to be the least in 1QFY20 since net IUC costs, considering the changing minutes mix. Net-net, we
launch. forecast a ~13.5% QoQ decline in Ebitda in 1Q, but ~5% PAT growth.
Separately, based on the cash interest expense and FX loss in 1HFY19
as seen from JIO’s scheme of arrangement document, effective interest
rate based on average debt (excluding capex creditors) works out to
~9.2%, well above the 3.7% reported in P&L. This works out to
capitalised interest costs of ~Rs13bn per quarter. We also estimate that
JIO capitalises ~Rs8bn opex per quarter (mostly on S&D). Of the
~Rs2.8trn fixed assets of JIO (before transfer of assets to SPVs), we
estimate that capitalised expenses account for ~Rs700bn.
Increasing number of field reports are suggesting that JIO is applying
the brakes on rollout and consolidating assets on ground to better

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optimize before resuming rollout. Hence there could be a brief drop in ~200bps. Excluding this, 4Q mobile Ebitda margin would have been
capex intensity for a couple of quarters. 22.1%. We expect this to marginally improve to ~22.5%, as part of the
operating leverage benefit would be offset by the usual seasonality in
Figure 4: JIO – 1QFY20 estimates
network opex (higher in summer months). Consequently, underlying
Rs m 1QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
Ebitda is likely to grow 3% QoQ, though reported mobile Ebitda may
Revenue 81,091 111,060 116,784 44.0% 5.2% sport a 5% decline.
Costs
Licence fee + SUC 8,602 11,800 12,823 49.1% 8.7% Home BB and enterprise stable; DTH may see healthy
Access charges 10,570 10,990 9,927 -6.1% -9.7% performance: Home BB saw pressure easing off in 4Q, after many
Network opex 21,429 34,010 24,800 15.7% -27.1% quarters of sharp decline. We expect flat QoQ Ebitda. For the enterprise
segment, we build in ~5% QoQ Ebitda growth off a low base. DTH
S&D costs 2,350 3,290 3,387 44.1% 2.9%
should benefit from seasonal strength in 1Q. The Cricket World Cup may
Other costs 3,003 3,130 3,106 3.4% -0.8% also boost performance.
Employee costs 3,677 4,580 4,014 9.2% -12.4%
Africa - Healthy performance to continue: Africa is likely to see
Infra usage charges paid to SPV 21,290
~2% QoQ revenue growth in US$ terms. Tight cost control would
Total opex 49,630 67,800 79,347 59.9% 17.0% continue and we estimate ~3% QoQ Ebitda growth. With most
Ebitda 31,460 43,260 37,437 19.0% -13.5% currencies remaining stable in 1Q, we do not build in any FX loss.
Ebitda margin 38.8% 39.0% 32.1% -674 bps -690 bps
We also factor in interest cost savings from the Rs250-bn rights issue
Depreciation and amortisation 14,394 17,440 10,459 -27.3% -40.0% that happened in May.
Ebit 17,066 25,820 26,977 58.1% 4.5%
Interest expense 7,676 12,940 13,422 74.9% 3.7%
Other income 14 30 24 64.3% -21.1%
PBT 9,405 12,910 13,579 44.4% 5.2%
Tax 3,286 4,510 4,753 44.6% 5.4%
PAT 6,119 8,400 8,827 44.2% 5.1%

EoP sub base (m) 215.3 306.7 330.7 53.6% 7.8%


ARPU (Rs) 135 126 122 -9.2% -3.2%

Data traffic (m GB) 6,420 9,560 10,382 61.7% 8.6%


GB/month per sub 10.6 10.9 10.9 2.0% 0.0%
Source: Company, IIFL Research

Bharti India mobile − We build in 2%/3% QoQ


revenue/underlying Ebitda growth: Bharti had reported ~Rs2bn
provision write-back in 4QFY19 which boosted Ebitda margin by

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Figure 5: We expect +5% underlying consolidated Ebitda growth QoQ VIL: We expect ~5% underlying Ebitda decline QoQ
Bharti (Rs m) 1QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
India • We expect VIL to report ~1% QoQ revenue decline.
Subs ('000) 344,564 282,640 285,640 -17.1% 1.1% • VIL also reported ~Rs2bn network opex-related provision write-back
ARPU (Rs) 105 123 126 19.1% 2.0% in 4QFY19, which we expect to normalise.
Wireless traffic (m min) 684,191 731,187 738,927 8.0% 1.1% • VIL had achieved Rs51bn annualised opex synergies in 4QFY19. We
MOU per sub (min) 700 858 867 23.9% 1.1% expect this number to improve to Rs57bn in 1QFY20.
Data traffic (m MB) 2,150,645 3,705,034 4,149,639 92.9% 12.0%
• Considering some underlying cost inflation and network rollout, we
Data usage per sub per month (MB) 7,864 11,048 11,668 48.4% 5.6% build in ~5% Ebitda decline. On a reported basis, Ebitda may decline
India wireless revenue 104,803 106,322 108,431 3.5% 2.0% ~16% QoQ.
India wireless Ebitda 27,603 25,657 24,397 -11.6% -4.9%
• We also build in interest cost savings from the Rs250bn rights issue
Total India revenue 149,300 152,408 156,400 4.8% 2.6% that happened in April.
Ebitda 49,133 46,466 45,689 -7.0% -1.7%
Ebitda margin 32.9% 30.5% 29.2% -370bps -127bps
Africa (US$ m)
Revenue 745 781 799 7.2% 2.3%
Ebitda 286 306 315 10.2% 3.0%
Ebitda margin 38.3% 39.1% 39.4% 105bps 26bps
Consolidated
Revenue 197,992 206,022 209,998 6.1% 1.9%
Ebitda 67,259 66,316 67,529 0.4% 1.8%
Ebitda margin 34.0% 32.2% 32.2% -181bps -3bps
Ebit 15,807 11,382 11,881 -24.8% 4.4%
Finance charges (net) 18,268 24,695 22,652 24.0% -8.3%
Exceptional losses (gains) 3,621 (20,221) 0
Forex losses/ (gains) 388 (227) 0
PBT (6,470) 7,135 (10,771)
Tax (11,267) 1,374 (3,756)
Minority interest (3,823) (4,689) (4,224)
PAT 974 1,072 (11,240)
Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Figure 6: VIL − Financials BHIN – Flat rental revenue and seasonal decline in energy
Rs m 4Q FY19 1Q FY20 % QoQ spread to result in ~4% QoQ Ebitda decline
Quarter ending subscribers (m) 334.1 303.1 (9.3)
ARPU (Rs) 104 113 8.7 • We expect rental revenue to be flat QoQ.
Wireless traffic (m min) 702,749 716,850 2.0 • Energy spread is seasonally the lowest in 1Q and rises during the
year. We expect it to narrow, from ~12% in 4Q to 5% in 1Q. 4Q
MOU per sub (min) 662 750 13.3
also had some one-off items in other expenses. Considering these
Data traffic (m MB) 2,947,472 3,270,529 11.0
factors, we expect ~4% QoQ Ebitda decline.
Data usage per sub per month (MB) 8,815 9,375 6.4
Figure 7: Infratel may see ~5% rental revenue decline and ~3.5% Ebitda decline QoQ
Revenue 117,750 116,391 (1.2) Bharti Infratel (Rs m) 1QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
Personnel Expenditure 7,292 7,235 (0.8) Total towers 91,759 92,277 92,427 0.7% 0.2%
Network Opex 50,990 52,573 3.1 Tenancy 2.19 1.87 1.88 -13.9% 0.7%
Licence Fees & Spectrum charges 12,615 12,437 (1.4) Rental revenue 21,989 21,086 20,954 -4.7% -0.6%
Roaming and Access changes 12,496 12,746 2.0 Energy reimbursement 14,746 14,917 14,887 1.0% -0.2%
SG&A 11,320 11,231 (0.8)
Total revenue 36,735 36,003 35,841 -2.4% -0.5%
Others 5,184 5,143 (0.8)
Ebitda 15,196 14,911 14,350 -5.6% -3.8%
Total Cost 99,897 101,365 1.5
Ebitda margin 41.4% 41.4% 40.0% -133bps -138bps
EBITDA 17,853 15,026 (15.8)
Ebit 9,807 9,413 8,937 -8.9% -5.1%
EBITDA margin 15.2% 12.9% -225 bps
Finance charges (net) 743 800 771 3.8% -3.6%
Depreciation 46,639 46,350 (0.6)
Other income 1,637 1,451 1,480 -9.6% 2.0%
EBIT -28,786 -31,324
EBIT margin -24.4% -26.9% PBT 10,701 10,064 9,646 -9.9% -4.2%
Share of gain from Indus 549 549 Tax 4,321 3,988 3,955 -8.5% -0.8%
Finance Charges 29,460 25,865 PAT 6,380 6,076 5,691 -10.8% -6.3%
Source: Company, IIFL Research
Other Income 1,566 0
Exceptional gains/(losses) -11,458 0
Profit before Tax -67,589 -56,640
Tax -18,770 -19,258
Reported PAT -48,819 -37,382
Exceptional gains/(losses) -11,458 0
Pre-exceptional PAT -37,361 -37,382
Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Name, Qualification and Certification of Research Analyst: G V Giri(MBA), Balaji Subramanian(MBA)

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Stock Broker SEBI Regn.: INZ000164132, PMS SEBI Regn. No. INP000002213, IA SEBI Regn. No. INA000000623, SEBI RA Regn.:- INH000000248

Key to our recommendation structure

BUY - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ more than average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

SELL - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Add - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% over the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Reduce - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Distribution of Ratings: Out of 223 stocks rated in the IIFL coverage universe, 111 have BUY ratings, 7 have SELL ratings, 70 have ADD ratings and 34 have REDUCE ratings

Price Target: Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as
comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there is a
significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such demand
variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries,
in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social conditions. This
discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.

Bharti Airtel: 3 year price and rating history


Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
700
600 28 Jul 2016 373 416 BUY 10 Jul 2018 363 503 BUY
500 29 Jul 2016 372 427 BUY 23 Jul 2018 346 444 BUY
400 05 Aug 2016 366 432 BUY 19 Nov 2018 333 342 BUY
300 26 Oct 2016 312 376 BUY 01 Feb 2019 306 353 BUY
200 27 Oct 2016 318 401 BUY 05 Mar 2019 308 335 BUY
100 13 Jan 2017 319 399 BUY 03 Jun 2019 349 419 BUY
0 27 Jan 2017 311 391 BUY 21 Jun 2019 349 408 BUY
11 May 2017 373 428 BUY
May-17
Mar-17

Nov-17

Mar-18
May-18

Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Jul-16

Jul-17
Sep-17

Sep-18

Jul-19

17 Jul 2017 407 498 BUY


02 Nov 2017 538 628 BUY
22 Jan 2018 498 586 BUY
18 Apr 2018 382 548 BUY

gvgi ri @i i fl cap. c o m 11
Institutional Equities India - Telecom

Date Close price Target price Rating


Bharti Infratel: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
Price TP/Reco changed date 26 Apr 2019 271 269 REDUCE
600 07 Jul 2016 359 398 ADD
27 Jul 2016 363 407 ADD
500
14 Oct 2016 365 352 REDUCE
400 24 Jan 2017 347 353 REDUCE
300 18 Apr 2017 344 320 REDUCE
200 17 Jul 2017 418 400 REDUCE
100 01 Nov 2017 442 436 REDUCE
0 26 Feb 2018 340 409 BUY
30 Jul 2018 289 362 BUY
May-17
Mar-17

Nov-17

Mar-18
May-18

Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Jul-16

Jul-17
Sep-17

Sep-18

Jul-19
06 Sep 2018 271 291 REDUCE
09 Jan 2019 298 248 REDUCE
24 Jan 2019 277 264 REDUCE

Idea Cellular: 3 year price and rating history


Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
160
140 09 Aug 2016 103 149 BUY 31 Jul 2018 58 40 REDUCE
120 10 Aug 2016 97 123 BUY 07 Feb 2019 30 30 REDUCE
100 19 Oct 2016 73 96 BUY 15 May 2019 14 12 REDUCE
80 13 Jan 2017 74 80 BUY
60
40 31 Jan 2017 98 144 BUY
20 13 Feb 2017 110 140 BUY
0 30 Mar 2017 89 132 BUY
16 May 2017 86 124 BUY
May-17
Mar-17

Nov-17

Mar-18
May-18

Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Jul-16

Jul-17
Sep-17

Sep-18

Jul-19

17 Jul 2017 89 110 BUY


06 Nov 2017 106 91 REDUCE
25 Jan 2018 94 93 REDUCE
18 Apr 2018 71 67 REDUCE

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