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15 July 2019 Institutional Equities
Rural survey: VIL strong; JIO also sells • Most shopkeepers acknowledged the presence of a used smart-
phone market, but did not suggest that this has intensified or has
had an adverse impact on JioPhone sales. Most of the top-ups for
• Throughout our journey (a 50km detour from the Mumbai-Nashik JioPhone are for the Rs99 plan. However, multiple shopkeepers
Highway to villages in the Nashik and Ahmednagar districts), we mentioned heating and hanging issues with JioPhone. The initial
found that JIO’s network coverage was available for 70% of the time friction point of JioPhone being a single SIM phone, thereby
and Bharti’s was available for 40%. Our driver, who had an Idea hampering the customer’s flexibility, also persists.
SIM, had the network available 90% of the time. Idea’s 900 holdings
• Many villagers consume most data on WhatsApp and YouTube.
in Maharashtra seem to be at play.
Some of them also use JIO TV to catch up on TV shows during their
• In one of the villages we visited (about 40km from the Mumbai- lunch break at the farm. A few of them end up consuming their
Nashik Highway and 160km from Mumbai), we were surprised to 0.5GB/day quota on the Rs99 plan.
find that neither JIO nor Bharti have network coverage (not even
• On the smartphone plan top-ups, JIO’s Rs399 per 84-day plan
Bharti’s 2G network coverage). A store does not even keep JIO and
remains the most popular, as does Bharti and VIL’s Rs199 per 28-
Bharti SIM cards due to lack of network availability. We were also
day plan. Both these observations remain unchanged from our last
told that only VIL and BSNL networks are available there and that
rural survey, a few months ago.
VIL had launched 4G, ten days ago.
• Dual-SIM phenomenon has slightly abated, but remains prevalent.
• In another village, we observed a digging machine, and the locals
mentioned that JIO has brought it, in order to lay fibre.
• In many of the villages, VIL and JIO recharges see more traction.
VIL’s network experience (on both 2G and 4G) was described as
good.
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Figure 3: Dhamangaon Pat: A village where neither JIO nor Bharti is present Figure 4: A snapshot of Dhamangaon Pat village
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Figure 5: Kothale – A village where all three telcos’ networks are reasonably good Figure 1: An outlet in Kothale village
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Institutional Equities India - Telecom
Figure 2: A store selling handsets in Akole; note JioPhone display at the bottom-most
rack
Bharti doing well in Mumbai and Bangalore;
JioPhone slows down
We also spoke with distributors of multiple telcos in Mumbai and
Bangalore. The following are the key takeaways:
• Bharti eliminated the Rs249 post-paid plan and now, the Rs399 plan
is its cheapest. JIO continues to have Rs199 post-paid plan, but
Bharti’s post-paid hike suggests that this Rs199-plan of JIO has had
limited traction. International roaming deals being few and
enterprise thrust yet to gain momentum could be the reasons.
• JIO pays 9% to the trade channel for the offline recharges, split as
6.5% to the retailer and 2.5% to the distributor. Bharti and VIL pay
2.5% to the retailer and 1.25% to the distributor; however, both
have recently increased emphasis on subscriber acquisition vs.
retention. While their basic payout structure remains 2.5%+1.25%,
Source: Company, IIFL Research
they set acquisition target-related payouts where, in some cases,
they end up matching JIO on total trade channel payouts.
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1QFY20: JIO’s extent of outperformance to Figure 3: QoQ DRR growth − JIO’s extent of outperformance diminishing
In recent quarters, there has been a divergence between the subscriber 10%
base and adds reported by Bharti and VIL to TRAI vs. those reported to
the stock exchanges, which have tightened their subscriber definition 5%
norm. On the other hand, JIO reports the same number to both TRAI
and the exchanges. JIO added ~8m subs in April, as per TRAI. We 0%
expect it to have maintained a similar run-rate in May and June.
-5%
We expect QoQ revenue growth of 5%/2%/-1% for JIO/Bharti
India mobile/VIL: We expect JIO’s ARPU to be under pressure,
-10%
considering: 1) more cash backs, since a higher proportion of subs are 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20
topping up using MyJIO app; and 2) JioPhone’s Rs99 plan continuing to
see uptake. We build in 3% QoQ ARPU decline, despite one extra day in Source: Companies, IIFL Research
1Q and sports events such as the IPL and the Cricket World Cup.
Consequently, we estimate ~5% QoQ revenue growth.
JIO - 1QFY20 to see the impact of fibre and tower demerger: JIO,
Bharti and VIL benefitted from tailwinds from the minimum ARPU plan in its analyst meet post 4QFY19 results, mentioned that the demerger
in 4Q (which we estimate at ~4ppt); this helped them sport a 6.5% and of its fibre and tower assets to SPVs would be PBT neutral at the JIO
2.3% daily revenue run-rate (DRR) growth respectively in 4Q. 1Q is level. This transaction would result in higher opex in the form of infra
unlikely to see any uplift on account of this factor. We consequently usage charges for JIO, but also bring down depreciation and interest.
expect QoQ DRR change of 1%/-2% for Bharti/VIL. QoQ revenue Our note here mentions the potential impact on JIO’s financials from the
growth would be 1% higher than this. above transaction. We see some reduction in employee costs, as some
If one removes the ~4ppt spurt for Bharti and VIL in 4Q, JIO’s extent of of these are moved to the SPVs. We further expect some reduction in
outperformance vs. peers is likely to be the least in 1QFY20 since net IUC costs, considering the changing minutes mix. Net-net, we
launch. forecast a ~13.5% QoQ decline in Ebitda in 1Q, but ~5% PAT growth.
Separately, based on the cash interest expense and FX loss in 1HFY19
as seen from JIO’s scheme of arrangement document, effective interest
rate based on average debt (excluding capex creditors) works out to
~9.2%, well above the 3.7% reported in P&L. This works out to
capitalised interest costs of ~Rs13bn per quarter. We also estimate that
JIO capitalises ~Rs8bn opex per quarter (mostly on S&D). Of the
~Rs2.8trn fixed assets of JIO (before transfer of assets to SPVs), we
estimate that capitalised expenses account for ~Rs700bn.
Increasing number of field reports are suggesting that JIO is applying
the brakes on rollout and consolidating assets on ground to better
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optimize before resuming rollout. Hence there could be a brief drop in ~200bps. Excluding this, 4Q mobile Ebitda margin would have been
capex intensity for a couple of quarters. 22.1%. We expect this to marginally improve to ~22.5%, as part of the
operating leverage benefit would be offset by the usual seasonality in
Figure 4: JIO – 1QFY20 estimates
network opex (higher in summer months). Consequently, underlying
Rs m 1QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
Ebitda is likely to grow 3% QoQ, though reported mobile Ebitda may
Revenue 81,091 111,060 116,784 44.0% 5.2% sport a 5% decline.
Costs
Licence fee + SUC 8,602 11,800 12,823 49.1% 8.7% Home BB and enterprise stable; DTH may see healthy
Access charges 10,570 10,990 9,927 -6.1% -9.7% performance: Home BB saw pressure easing off in 4Q, after many
Network opex 21,429 34,010 24,800 15.7% -27.1% quarters of sharp decline. We expect flat QoQ Ebitda. For the enterprise
segment, we build in ~5% QoQ Ebitda growth off a low base. DTH
S&D costs 2,350 3,290 3,387 44.1% 2.9%
should benefit from seasonal strength in 1Q. The Cricket World Cup may
Other costs 3,003 3,130 3,106 3.4% -0.8% also boost performance.
Employee costs 3,677 4,580 4,014 9.2% -12.4%
Africa - Healthy performance to continue: Africa is likely to see
Infra usage charges paid to SPV 21,290
~2% QoQ revenue growth in US$ terms. Tight cost control would
Total opex 49,630 67,800 79,347 59.9% 17.0% continue and we estimate ~3% QoQ Ebitda growth. With most
Ebitda 31,460 43,260 37,437 19.0% -13.5% currencies remaining stable in 1Q, we do not build in any FX loss.
Ebitda margin 38.8% 39.0% 32.1% -674 bps -690 bps
We also factor in interest cost savings from the Rs250-bn rights issue
Depreciation and amortisation 14,394 17,440 10,459 -27.3% -40.0% that happened in May.
Ebit 17,066 25,820 26,977 58.1% 4.5%
Interest expense 7,676 12,940 13,422 74.9% 3.7%
Other income 14 30 24 64.3% -21.1%
PBT 9,405 12,910 13,579 44.4% 5.2%
Tax 3,286 4,510 4,753 44.6% 5.4%
PAT 6,119 8,400 8,827 44.2% 5.1%
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Figure 5: We expect +5% underlying consolidated Ebitda growth QoQ VIL: We expect ~5% underlying Ebitda decline QoQ
Bharti (Rs m) 1QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
India • We expect VIL to report ~1% QoQ revenue decline.
Subs ('000) 344,564 282,640 285,640 -17.1% 1.1% • VIL also reported ~Rs2bn network opex-related provision write-back
ARPU (Rs) 105 123 126 19.1% 2.0% in 4QFY19, which we expect to normalise.
Wireless traffic (m min) 684,191 731,187 738,927 8.0% 1.1% • VIL had achieved Rs51bn annualised opex synergies in 4QFY19. We
MOU per sub (min) 700 858 867 23.9% 1.1% expect this number to improve to Rs57bn in 1QFY20.
Data traffic (m MB) 2,150,645 3,705,034 4,149,639 92.9% 12.0%
• Considering some underlying cost inflation and network rollout, we
Data usage per sub per month (MB) 7,864 11,048 11,668 48.4% 5.6% build in ~5% Ebitda decline. On a reported basis, Ebitda may decline
India wireless revenue 104,803 106,322 108,431 3.5% 2.0% ~16% QoQ.
India wireless Ebitda 27,603 25,657 24,397 -11.6% -4.9%
• We also build in interest cost savings from the Rs250bn rights issue
Total India revenue 149,300 152,408 156,400 4.8% 2.6% that happened in April.
Ebitda 49,133 46,466 45,689 -7.0% -1.7%
Ebitda margin 32.9% 30.5% 29.2% -370bps -127bps
Africa (US$ m)
Revenue 745 781 799 7.2% 2.3%
Ebitda 286 306 315 10.2% 3.0%
Ebitda margin 38.3% 39.1% 39.4% 105bps 26bps
Consolidated
Revenue 197,992 206,022 209,998 6.1% 1.9%
Ebitda 67,259 66,316 67,529 0.4% 1.8%
Ebitda margin 34.0% 32.2% 32.2% -181bps -3bps
Ebit 15,807 11,382 11,881 -24.8% 4.4%
Finance charges (net) 18,268 24,695 22,652 24.0% -8.3%
Exceptional losses (gains) 3,621 (20,221) 0
Forex losses/ (gains) 388 (227) 0
PBT (6,470) 7,135 (10,771)
Tax (11,267) 1,374 (3,756)
Minority interest (3,823) (4,689) (4,224)
PAT 974 1,072 (11,240)
Source: Company, IIFL Research
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Figure 6: VIL − Financials BHIN – Flat rental revenue and seasonal decline in energy
Rs m 4Q FY19 1Q FY20 % QoQ spread to result in ~4% QoQ Ebitda decline
Quarter ending subscribers (m) 334.1 303.1 (9.3)
ARPU (Rs) 104 113 8.7 • We expect rental revenue to be flat QoQ.
Wireless traffic (m min) 702,749 716,850 2.0 • Energy spread is seasonally the lowest in 1Q and rises during the
year. We expect it to narrow, from ~12% in 4Q to 5% in 1Q. 4Q
MOU per sub (min) 662 750 13.3
also had some one-off items in other expenses. Considering these
Data traffic (m MB) 2,947,472 3,270,529 11.0
factors, we expect ~4% QoQ Ebitda decline.
Data usage per sub per month (MB) 8,815 9,375 6.4
Figure 7: Infratel may see ~5% rental revenue decline and ~3.5% Ebitda decline QoQ
Revenue 117,750 116,391 (1.2) Bharti Infratel (Rs m) 1QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
Personnel Expenditure 7,292 7,235 (0.8) Total towers 91,759 92,277 92,427 0.7% 0.2%
Network Opex 50,990 52,573 3.1 Tenancy 2.19 1.87 1.88 -13.9% 0.7%
Licence Fees & Spectrum charges 12,615 12,437 (1.4) Rental revenue 21,989 21,086 20,954 -4.7% -0.6%
Roaming and Access changes 12,496 12,746 2.0 Energy reimbursement 14,746 14,917 14,887 1.0% -0.2%
SG&A 11,320 11,231 (0.8)
Total revenue 36,735 36,003 35,841 -2.4% -0.5%
Others 5,184 5,143 (0.8)
Ebitda 15,196 14,911 14,350 -5.6% -3.8%
Total Cost 99,897 101,365 1.5
Ebitda margin 41.4% 41.4% 40.0% -133bps -138bps
EBITDA 17,853 15,026 (15.8)
Ebit 9,807 9,413 8,937 -8.9% -5.1%
EBITDA margin 15.2% 12.9% -225 bps
Finance charges (net) 743 800 771 3.8% -3.6%
Depreciation 46,639 46,350 (0.6)
Other income 1,637 1,451 1,480 -9.6% 2.0%
EBIT -28,786 -31,324
EBIT margin -24.4% -26.9% PBT 10,701 10,064 9,646 -9.9% -4.2%
Share of gain from Indus 549 549 Tax 4,321 3,988 3,955 -8.5% -0.8%
Finance Charges 29,460 25,865 PAT 6,380 6,076 5,691 -10.8% -6.3%
Source: Company, IIFL Research
Other Income 1,566 0
Exceptional gains/(losses) -11,458 0
Profit before Tax -67,589 -56,640
Tax -18,770 -19,258
Reported PAT -48,819 -37,382
Exceptional gains/(losses) -11,458 0
Pre-exceptional PAT -37,361 -37,382
Source: Company, IIFL Research
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