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A Practical History of Financial Markets

London, 31st Oct – 2nd November 2019
Thursday 31st October

07.45-08.00 Coffee/tea and breakfast buffet

08.00-08.15 Introduction to the course by Russell Napier

MODULE 1 Valuing Stock Markets - Derry Pickford & Stephen Wright

08.15 - 09.45 Session 1
Introduction
Value
Long-term Stock Returns and Two Remarkable Features
Hindsight Value and the Value of Hindsight

09.45 - 10.15 Coffee and Group Work

10.15 - 10.45 Review of Group Work

10.45 - 12.15 Session 2

Can Markets be Valued? The Five Key Tests
Applying the Tests:
a) The Dividend Yield
b) Redefining Dividends: the “Cash Flow Yield”
c) The Price-Earnings Multiple

12.15 - 13.15 Lunch

13.15 - 13.30 Review of Group Work II

13.30 - 14.30 Session 3

Applying the Tests, continued
d) Adjusting the P/E
e) Yield Gaps and Yield Differences

14.45 – 15.30 Session 4

Applying the Tests, continued
f) “q”
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15.30 - 15.45 Group Work III

15.45 - 16.15 Review of Group Work, Overview and Q&A

MODULE II Investing in Periods of Inflation, Disinflation and Deflation

Peter Warburton
16.15 - 17.15 Session I
Introduction
Characterisations and stages of a domestic inflationary process
International determination of inflation
17.15 Coffee Break
17.15-17.45 Break-out session I and review
The Great German Weimar Inflation 1918-1923
17.45 – 18.30 Session II
Investment Returns in different inflationary climates
18.35 - 19.15 Break-out session II and review
US equity investing during the Great Depression
19.15 - 20.00 Session III
Global Price Acceleration: the race has begun
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Friday 1st November

07.45-08.00 Coffee/tea and breakfast buffet

MODULE III Monetary Theory of Asset Prices - John Greenwood
08.00 - 09.30 Session I
The Monetary Theory of the Business Cycle & Asset Prices
How money is created; how money grows in normal times
Central Bank Balance Sheet Transactions
How the money supply behaves in abnormal times
The growth of shadow banks and non-bank credit
US, UK, Eurozone and Japanese money supply & capital
markets

09.30 - 09.40 Coffee Break

09.40 - 10.30 Session II
Measuring Money and Credit
Broad money and its ‘counterparts’
The demand for money and changes in velocity
The Impact of Fluctuations in Money and Credit
The Impact of Different Exchange Rate Regimes – Fixed,
Managed & Floating -- on Money Creation and Growth
Money supply and asset prices in different countries
Printing-press money versus fountain-pen money

10.30 - 10.40 Coffee Break

10.20 - 11.20 Session III
Financial Bubbles and Busts
Two Overlapping Bell Curves and the Three Phases
Bubbles, practical examples
Debt-deflation, practical examples
The Importance of Balance Sheet Repair

11.20 - 11.30 Coffee Break

11.30 - 12.15 Session IV

The Data on Money and Credit
Overview of current data on money and credit
Single country versus multi-country measures
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Divisia measures of money and their usefulness

Overall conclusions

12.15 - 13.30 Session V Jamie Dannhauser

Between a rock and hard place: central bankers, a flawed
paradigm and the dangers that lurk ahead

13.30 - 14.15 Lunch

MODULE IV Behavioural Finance - Herman Brodie

14.15 - 15.25 How finance got behavioural
Schemas and heuristics
Prospect Theory (part 1)
15.25 - 15.40 Coffee break
15.40 - 16.50 Prospect Theory (part 2)
Cognitive Dissonance
16.50 - 17.30 Group work – “Analysis of an investor”
Debriefing
17.30 - 18.00 Discounting
Adaptation
18.00 - 18.30 Group work – “The Pension Crisis”
18.30 - 18.45 Tips & Tricks
Q&A

MODULE V Russell Napier

18.45 - 19.30 Mean reversion of Equity Valuation

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Saturday 2nd November

09.00 - 10.30 Russell Napier

Financial History the Next Ten Years

10.30 - 10.45 Coffee

10.45 - 12.00 Jon Compton

Missing the Obvious – How to save time and make money in
capital markets

12.00 - 12.15 Coffee

12.15 - 13.30 Edward Chancellor

Investing with the Capital Cycle

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