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MAC TAYLOR • Legislative AnalysT • January 2011
LAO
7 0 Y E A R S O F S E RV I C E
i
Mac Taylor
Legislative Analyst
ii
Contents iii
Introduction. .................................................... i
California's Economy....................................... 1
Program Trends
K-12................................................................ 29
Higher Education.............................................39
Social Services. ............................................. 44
Health............................................................ 48
Criminal Justice.............................................. 53
Resources...................................................... 56
Transportation. ...............................................61
Infrastructure. .............................................. 65
United States
(excluding California)
Japan
China
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
California
Brazil
Spain
Canada
$2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Construction
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Information
Other Services
Government
5 10 15 20%
Construction
Trade, Transportation
& Utilities
Manufacturing
Professional &
Business Services
Financial Activities
Other Services
Government
Information
Educational &
Health Services
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100
10
-2
-4
1990 1995 2000 2005
Canada
$14 Billion Other
$10 Billion
Dollars
Products In Billions Europe
Computers/ $35 $25 Billion
Electronics
Transportation 13
Non-electrical
machinery 11
Chemicals 10
Agriculture 8
Other 43 Latin America
$5 Billion
Asia
$48 Billion
Mexico
$17 Billion
0-4
5-17
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60%
Others
Asian and Pacific Islander
White (Non-Hispanic)
Hispanic
African American
250
200
150
100
50
Oregon
Texas
Nevada
Florida
Washington
Arizona
Illinois
Michigan
Pennsylvania
United States
Ohio
California
New York
$2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
State
Tax 2/3 None
Fee Majority None
General obligation bond 2/3 Majority
Lease revenue bond Majority None
Initiative proposing revenue None Majority
or debt
Local
Tax:
Funds used for general purposes 2/3a Majority
Funds used for specific purposes 2/3a 2/3
Property assessment Majority Majorityb
Fee Majority Nonec
General obligation bond:
K-14 districts 2/3 55%
Cities, counties, and special 2/3 2/3
districts
Other debt Majority None
a For most local agencies.
b Votes weighted by assessment liability of affected property owners.
c Except for certain fees on property.
Tax Distribution
Selected
Yearsa Revenue Schools Counties Cities Otherb
Selected Counties
San Bernardino 31%
Riverside 26
Butte 20
Solano 20
Selected Other Counties
Los Angeles 12%
Sacramento 5
San Francisco 1
Statewide Totals 12%
Special
Counties Cities Districtsa
Peace Officers
Procedural Bill of Rights
Absentee Ballots
Animal Adoption
Open Meetings
$15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10 11-12
a Based on LAO projections made in November preceeding each fiscal
year shown. Represents difference between current-law resources
(including reserves) and expenditures.
Corporation
Tax
2009-10
Other Sources
Personal Income Tax
Corporation
Tax
The reduced share for the sales tax reflects in part the
increase in spending on services, which generally are
not taxed.
State–Local Finances
21
50
40
30
20
10
Other
Criminal Justice
K-12 Education
and the Courts
Health and
Social Services Higher Education
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
$10
-2
-4
-6
-8
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
UC
Corrections
CSU
Other
The state has many positions that are authorized but not
filled. The current vacancy rate is about 12.3 percent.
Average Cost
Per Participant
Number of
Participants General
(In Thousands) Fund Totala
Corrections
Adults 167 $43,500 $46,700
Youth 2 198,931 208,766
Education
K-12 5,922 $5,691 $11,405
CCC 1,162 3,212 3,383
CSU 343 6,854 6,987
UC 198 11,743 11,885
Health and Social Services
Medi-Cal 7,276 $1,929 $3,980
SSI/SSP 1,249 2,363 7,243
CalWORKs 1,347 1,508 4,513
Healthy Families 881 250 1,256
IHSS 439 3,369 13,002
Regional centers 237 9,261 16,957
Foster Care 60 7,276 29,364
Developmental 2 17,254 276,640
centers
a Reflects total spending flowing through the state budget. Excludes local property
tax revenues for school districts, student fees for higher education, and hospital
payments and county funds for Medi-Cal.
Program Trends
29
Federal Funds
State Funds
Special Education
Flexible Categorical
Funding
$9,200
9,000
8,800
8,600
8,400
8,200
8,000
7,800
7,600
7,400
7,200
00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09
Percent Change
< -5%
-5% to 0
0 to 5%
5 to 15%
> 15%
Student Achievement
Rising Over Time
Percent Basic or Better
All Students
Low-Income Students
90% English Learners
Students With Disabilities
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
60
50
40
30
20
10
$4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Non-CalWORKs Programs
2.5 CalWORKs Stage 3
1.5
1.0
0.5
120,000
Licensed Center
100,000
Licensed Family Home
License-Exempt Provider
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
$35,000
University of California
30,000
25,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
California Community Colleges
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
aIncludes state General Fund, local property tax, and student fee revenues.
2,000,000
1,600,000
CCC
1,200,000
800,000
CSU
400,000
UC
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
18,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
UC CSU CCC
aIncludes federal stimulus funds for CCC.
Miscellaneous/
Personal
Fees
Transportation
Books and
Supplies
90%
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
UC CSU CCC
150%
100
IHSS
50
SSI/SSP
Food Stamps
0
Foster Care
-50 CalWORKs
1,000
800
600
400
200
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
30%
Average: 86.8 Hours
25
20
15
10
Adopted/Other
Adopted/Other
Data for children entering foster care between January and June 2006.
The "Adopted/Other" category includes children who left foster care
through adoption, guardianship, or emancipation.
Program Trends
48
Job-Based Uninsured
50% 25%
Other
9%
Medi-Cal/Healthy Families
16%
100%
80
Children and
60 Families
Seniors and
40 Persons With
Disabilities
20
Enrollees Expendituresa
(7.3 million individuals) ($29 billion total funds)
30%
25
Obesity Prevalence
20
15
Smoking Prevalence
10
80
60
40
20
9,000
Total
Property
7,000 Violent
5,000
3,000
1,000
New York
Illinois
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
U.S. Average
Ohio
California
Michigan
Georgia
Florida
Texas
Inmate Rehabilitation
Support Programs
Administration
Security
Operations
Addressing Rising
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
600
BAU Emissions
500
400 AB 32 Target
200 3% 3%
100 13%
35%
20%
1990 2006 2020 26%
Percentage
of Total Geothermal Small Hydro
Energy Supply Biomass Solar
12% Wind Other
10
74% Sacramento
River Valley
8% In-Delta Use,
Mostly Agricultural
10% Eastside
Tributaries/
In-Delta Precipitation
65% Outflow to
Suisun and
San Francisco Bays 16%
San Joaquin River
Expenditures
(In Millions)
$1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Deferred Maintenance,
by Park District
$20-$49 Million
$50-$99 Million
$100-$250 Million
Park District Border
Federal
Local
About $11 billion per year from local fund sources is used
for transportation purposes. These sources include
optional local sales taxes, a statewide 0.25 percent
sales tax on all goods and services, and transit fares.
$7
6
Estimated Highway Repair Needs
5
3 Shortfall
1
Amount Spent on Highway Repairs
2005 2009
One way the state can slow the growth of highway repair
costs is to adequately fund and perform maintenance
to extend the useful life of roads.
Program Trends
63
14%
12
10
Vehicle-Miles Traveled
8
6
4
2
Lane Miles
-2
Traffic Delay
-4
-6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Fresno
Bakersfield
Palmdale
Los Angeles
Anaheim
Local Funds
Private Funding
$61 Billion
Higher Education
10%
K-12 Education
21%
Criminal Justice
Anthony Simbol
Aaron Edwards
Paul Golaszewski
Drew Soderborg
State Finance
Jason Sisney
Justin Garosi
Caroline Godkin
James Nachbaur
Higher Education
Steve Boilard
Judy Heiman
Paul Steenhausen
K-12 Education
Jennifer Kuhn
Edgar Cabral
Rachel Ehlers
Jim Soland
Health
Shawn Martin
Ross Brown
Lisa Murawski
Meredith Wurden
Social Services
Todd Bland
Ginni Bella Navarre
Christine Frey
Erika Li
68
General Government
Marianne O’Malley
Nick Schroeder
Mark Whitaker
Resources and Environmental Protection
Mark Newton
Anton Favorini-Csorba
Lia Moore
Tiffany Roberts
Transportation, Business, and Housing
Farra Bracht
Russia Chavis
Jessica Digiambattista
Eric Thronson
Index of Charts
California's Economy
California Ranks Among the
World’s Top Ten Economies.............................1
California's Employment Base Is Diversified........2
Construction Jobs Hit Hard
During Recession.............................................3
Personal Income in California
Declined in 2009...............................................4
Trade—An Important Source of
California Economic Activity.............................5
Baby Boomers Will Swell
Over-65 Population...........................................6
California Is Very Diverse,
Racially and Ethnically......................................7
California Housing Prices Have
Fallen Substantially From Peaka. .....................8
State–Local Finances
California's Tax Burden Is
Somewhat Above Average................................9
California's Governments Rely
On a Variety of Taxes......................................10
Ballot Measures Have Had Major
State-Local Fiscal Implications.......................12
Ballot Measures Have Had Major
State-Local Fiscal Implications.......................13
Votes Required to Increase Taxes, Fees,
Assessments, or Debt.....................................14
Allocation of Property Tax
Has Varied Over Time.....................................15
Extensive Use of Redevelopment by
Local Agencies in Some Counties..................16
Index of Charts
Program Trends
K-12
State Is Primary Source of Revenue For K-12
Schools...........................................................29
One-Third of K-12 Funding Comes With Strings
Attached..........................................................30
Programmatic Per K-12 Pupil
Funding Has Fallen in Recent Years..............31
Index of Charts
Higher Education
Per-Student Higher Education
Funding Has Declined in Recent Years..........39
Growth in College Enrollment
Focused at Community Colleges....................40
Higher Education Costs Are Shared
By Students and the Public.............................41
Fees Comprise Only a Portion of
Student Costs. . . Many Sources of
Financial Aid Offset These Costs...................42
Student Completion Rates Vary
Significantly by Segment................................43
Social Services
Caseload Growth for Major
Social Services Programs..............................44
SSI/SSP Grant Is Near
Poverty Level. . . While CalWORKs Grant
Is Significantly Below Poverty Level...............45
Index of Charts
Criminal Justice
Crime Rate at Historic Low.................................53
California Prison Incarceration Rate
Similar to U.S. Average...................................54
Most Inmate Costs Related to
Security and Health Care................................55
Resources
Addressing Rising
Greenhouse Gas Emissions...........................56
Total Energy Demand Outpacing
Renewable Development................................57
Delta Is at the Heart of
California's Water System...............................58
Various Factors Raising
Wildland Firefighting Costs.............................59
Deferred Maintenance in State Parks Is
Substantial and Growing.................................60
Index of Charts
Transportation
Transportation Funding Comes From
Multiple Sources.............................................61
Annual Spending on Highway
Repairs Falls Short of Needs..........................62
Minimal New Highway Capacity, Mixed
Traffic Impacts.................................................63
Phase One of High-Speed Rail
System Development Underway....................64
Debt-Service Ratio Rising..................................65
Most State Infrastructure Spending Is for
Transportation and Education.........................66