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18 January 2011

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TOP NEWS RELATED TO U.S. AFRICA COMMAND AND AFRICA

On the Ground: Answering Your Sudan Questions (New York Times)


Part 1; Part 2; Part 3
(Sudan) NYT’s award-winning columnist Nicholas Kristof and former President Jimmy
Carter answer readers’ questions on Sudan.

Obama congratulates Sudanese, urges restraint (AFP)


(Sudan) US President Barack Obama congratulated the Sudanese Sunday for what he
called an inspiring referendum on their country's future, but urged calm as an expected
secession is worked out.

After Sudan Vote, U.S. to Face Fresh Challenges (Wall Street Journal)
(Sudan) This week's independence referendum in southern Sudan marks an apparent
victory for U.S. foreign policy in east Africa—one that has secured for Washington a
deeper advisory role in what is expected to be the birth of a new, impoverished nation.

US official: Sudan not helping rebel leader Kony (Associated Press)


(Sudan) The leader of the brutal rebel group the Lord's Resistance Army has crossed
back into Congo after having been in Sudan, a Ugandan official said Friday, while a
U.S. official said he has seen no evidence Sudan was helping the rebel leader.

Violence-scarred Tunisia announces new government (Associated Press)


(Tunisia) Tunisia's prime minister announced a national unity government on Monday,
allowing opposition into the country's leadership for the first time in a bid to quell
simmering unrest following the ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali amid huge
street protests.

Clinton urges reforms by new Tunisian govt (Associated Press)


(Tunisia) Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday urged Tunisia's new
leadership to restore order and adopt broad economic and political reforms in the wake
of the popular revolt that overthrew the North African nation's authoritarian president.
US denies WikiLeaks spurred revolt in Tunisia (Associated Press)
(Tunisia) The Obama administration is rejecting claims that revelations of rampant
corruption in Tunisia in secret U.S. diplomatic documents sparked the popular revolt
that overthrew the authoritarian leadership of the North African nation.

Tunisia: How the US got it wrong (Al Jazeera)


(Tunisia) While the United States and the international community should not directly
intervene unless the military begins killing or arresting large numbers of people, there
are a number of steps Obama could take immediately to ensure that this nascent
democratic moment takes root and spreads across the region.

Cable: US knew of corruption (Al Jazeera)


(Tunisia) A four-part series of US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks shows that
the US knew about the extent of corruption and discontent in Tunisia, and chose to
support Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the now deposed Tunisian president, regardless.

Al-Qaeda and organized crime: two sides of the same coin (Asharq Alawsat)
(Pan Africa) The name Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb [AQIM] has become
synonymous with abductions, hostage-taking operations, drug smuggling and bank
robberies. The overlap between organized crime and terrorism has become very strong
to the point that some analysts believe that Al-Qaeda is shifting from criminal activity
for the purpose of financing terrorism to [solely] making money.

UN peacekeepers in Ivory Coast fire warning shots (Associated Press)


(Ivory Coast) United Nations peacekeepers in Ivory Coast have fired warning shots in
the air after an angry crowd confronted them.

Nigerian Presidential Candidates Campaigning as Voter Registration Begins (Voice


of America)
(Nigeria) Voter registration is underway in Africa's most populous nation as Nigerians
prepare for April elections.

South Africa: Aid agency to be launched (IRIN)


(South Africa) South Africa will launch its own development aid agency in 2011 in a
move likely to boost the country’s status as an emerging economic power and
champion of the African continent.

UN News Service Africa Briefs


Full Articles on UN Website
 Concerned at ongoing violence, Ban urges return to rule of law in Tunisia
 Partnership enables UN to support police training in Somalia
 UN panel on Sudan referendum satisfied with polling, commends organizers
 UN chief welcomes end of polling in Southern Sudan's referendum on self-
determination
 UN, African officials call on Niger to hold free and fair elections
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UPCOMING EVENTS OF INTEREST:

WHEN/WHERE: Wednesday, January 19, 2011, 10:00 am; Georgetown University,


Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service
WHAT: Government in the Somali Territories After 1991
WHO: This talk will consider definitions and typologies of statehood using the Somali
territories as a critical case. This will include consideration of the multiple processes of
state-building and forms of statehood in Somalia and the neighboring Somali region of
Ethiopia since 1991.
Info: http://events.georgetown.edu/events/index.cfm?
Action=View&CalendarID=141&EventID=82440

WHEN/WHERE: Friday, January 21, 2011; Council on Foreign Relations


WHAT: Separating Sudan
WHO: Francis Deng, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on the Prevention of
Genocide, United Nations; Richard Williamson, Principal, Salisbury Strategies, LLP;
Senior Fellow, Chicago Council on Global Affairs; Nonresident Senior Fellow,
Brookings Institution; Peter M. Lewis, Director, African Studies Program, Paul H. Nitze
School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Info: http://www.cfr.org/

WHEN/WHERE: Tuesday, January 25, 2011, 6:30 pm; Elliott School of International
Affairs, George Washington University
WHAT: The Referendum in Southern Sudan
WHO: Jendayi Frazer, Distinguished Public Service Professor; Director, Center for
International Policy and Innovation, Carnegie Mellon University; Former U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs (2005-2009)
Info: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/calendar.cfm?
fuseaction=ViewMonthDetail&yr=2011&mon=1#1402

WHEN/WHERE: Tuesday and Wednesday, February 8-9, 2011; National Defense


Industrial Association, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, Washington, DC
WHAT: Defense, Diplomacy, and Development: Translating Policy into Operational
Capability
WHO: Keynote Speakers include ADM Michael Mullen, USN, Chairman, Joint Chiefs
of Staff; BG Simon Hutchinson, GBR, Deputy Commander, NATO Special Operations
Forces Headquarters; ADM Eric T. Olson, USN, Commander, U.S. Special Operations
Command; Gen Norton A. Schwartz, USAF, Chief of Staff, U.S. Air Force
Info: http://www.ndia.org/meetings/1880/Pages/default.aspx
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FULL ARTICLE TEXT
On the Ground: Answering Your Sudan Questions (New York Times)
Part 1; Part 2; Part 3

NYT’s award-winning columnist Nicholas Kristof and former President Jimmy Carter answer
readers’ questions on Sudan.

Thanks for all the terrific questions about Sudan, for former President Jimmy Carter
and myself. President Carter is in South Sudan at the moment, observing the
referendum there, and I’m very grateful that he’s taking the time to answer reader
questions. This is our first batch of responses — stay tuned for more in the days to
come. And there’s still time to pose your own questions. Now let me kick this off by
asking the first question of President Carter:

Q.You’re on the ground in South Sudan, monitoring the voting – and you’ve seen more
than your share of elections around the world. So what did you see today in Sudan?
What’s the mood? And did the voting that you observed go smoothly?

A.The Carter Center has been actively involved for 25 years in Sudan, promoting peace,
democracy, health care and agriculture, and a long lasting conflict (costing more than 2
million lives) was interrupted six years ago by the negotiation of a Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA). Two key provisions were that an election be held throughout
the nation (in April 2010) and South Sudanese citizens should decide in a referendum
whether to remain part of Sudan or form an independent new nation. That is the reason
for this vote, which began on January 9 and will continue for seven days. Then votes
will be counted and results announced. This is the 82nd troubled or doubtful election
that has been monitored by The Carter Center, and is possibly the most important.

About 3.9 million people have registered to vote, 116,000 of them living in N. Sudan
and 60,000 in eight other countries. On the first day there were large numbers of voters
in the South, excited and enthusiastic, and seeming to favor independence. From
reports of our 100 observers deployed throughout the nation, the procedure went
smoothly.

— President Carter

Q.A lot of people don’t understand/never heard about the recent history of Sudan, and
they don’t understand who the major players are and why they’ve acted the way they
have. Can you give a (very) brief summary of what led to the attempted genocides in
Darfur? Or, more basically, who are the people who sought to gain what through this
incredible level of lopsided violence, and what prompted it to start?

— Brian
A.The region of Darfur comprises three states in the western portion of North Sudan,
and its people have historically included both Arab and African tribes, who struggled
against each other for territory, water, and grazing rights. The central government,
mostly Arab and Islamic, has sided in ongoing disputes with the Arab tribes, and
President Bashir has been accused of promoting or condoning armed attacks and
serious violations of the human rights of many Africans. Rebellious activities by some
Darfur groups have exacerbated the situation. Peace talks are ongoing in Doha, Qatar,
but little progress has been made.
— President Carter

A.My take is that President Bashir faced an insurrection in Darfur, couldn’t rely on his
army to suppress it (partly because many soldiers are from Darfur), and so figured the
simplest solution was to do what he had already done during the civil war in the South
— send in tribal militias to murder, rape and pillage. He got away with it in the South,
and it worked reasonably well. I think President Bashir had no expectation that there
would be an international uproar and an International Criminal Court indictment (and
if there had been more international fuss about the slaughter in South Sudan in the
1990’s, he might not have tried this approach in Darfur). That’s one reason why I
welcome the ICC’s involvement in such cases: it raises the costs of crimes against
humanity, and creates a measure of accountability. That changes the decisions that
leaders make — and that maybe one reason President Bashir has so far been more
cooperative so far with the South Sudan referendum.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.What is our national interest in Sudan? We’ve let a lot of human on human disasters
occur in just the last few years with barely a comment, so I’m wondering why Sudan
should be our focus.

– Scott Robinson

A.The intense and prolonged suffering of the Sudanese people has naturally aroused
humanitarian concern of the international community. In addition, a resumption of civil
war would inevitably affect the nine bordering nations. The entire continent of Africa
could be affected, as well as the worldwide religious community. It is important to
recognize the enormous size of Sudan – equal to the United States east of the
Mississippi River.
— President Carter
A.Scott, we have a range of national interests in Sudan, and in particular avoiding a
failed state there. Remember that Osama bin Laden used to make his home in
Khartoum, and there’s certainly a potential for the northern part of the country to
incubate terrorists again — or for the south, if it fell apart, to become a refuge of groups
like the Lord’s Resistance Army. And failed states export refugees and perpetuate
diseases in ways that do challenge us: if we want to eradicate polio and Guinea worm,
we need to keep South Sudan together. What’s more, South Sudan is going to be a
significant oil exporter — and it’s in the interest of all of us that that oil gets out onto
world markets. But the larger point I would make is that we not only have national
interests, but also national values. And if war resumes in Sudan or the country shatters,
then hundreds of thousands of people will die. We may see another genocide. That
would rouse us from our stupor, and we’d eventually spend billions of dollars trying to
resolve the crisis — but one of the lessons of history is that it is far, far cheaper to avert
a war than to end one. So that’s where our interests and values converge, and that’s
why what we’re seeing today in South Sudan is so exciting. This does look as if
international engagement may have helped avert a war that only a few months ago
looked quite likely. Touch wood.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.Assuming that the partition goes through peacefully (which, admittedly, is a huge
supposition), will South Sudan be an economically viable entity given that it is
impoverished, has little experience in governance, and is landlocked (and therefore still
largely dependent upon Sudan for port access and oil pipelines)? Furthermore, given
that oil will most likely comprise a significant portion of state and overall revenue, does
South Sudan have the ability/capacity to avoid the dreaded resource curse and begin to
foster a diverse economy?

— Bill

A.The economic and political viability of both Northern and Southern Sudan will be
severely challenged when/if the south chooses to form a separate nation. They are
inseparably related to one another, with both dependent on oil revenues (65% in the
North and at least 95% in the South). The only viable government available to the new
nation in the South will have to be based on democracy, with a new constitution to be
written and guarantees to opposition and minority groups of their basic political and
economic rights. Sudan now has an internal debt of about $36 billion, much of which
needs to be forgiven. In addition, the international community must provide assistance
to both nations to help them survive the transition phase of their existence.
— President Carter

A.South Sudan will be economically viable, because of that oil — assuming that there’s
peace, of course. For the first half-dozen years, the oil will have to flow north to Port
Sudan, but eventually there will be a pipeline south to Kenya. The second part of your
question is a great one, though, and it’s one I worry about — the resource curse. As you
know, oil and minerals often harm an impoverished country rather than help, because
they provide relatively modest employment and fuel corruption and bad governance.
They also push up the country’s exchange rate, killing the manufacturing sector and
any business sector that competes with imports. I hope the international community
will work with South Sudan to encourage transparency and the use of oil money for
education and economic development, and to build in accountability mechanisms.
— Nicholas Kristof
PART 2:

How do you foresee our international relations with this new government in the south
region? How might the US use its influence (publicly or privately) in the establishment
of the new nation? Thank you.

– David Mordkofsky

Q.Where do we get the resources to intervene in Sudan either militarily or monetarily


in the face of our huge budget problems?

–B

A.It is important that the U.S. and the international community have good relations
with both North and South Sudan, both of which will be searching for ways to survive
and to preserve a fragile peace. It is hoped and expected that, after peace is assured,
military costs can be reduced in both nations. The north is heavily burdened with
existing debt, and commitments of debt relief and financial aid will enhance
constructive influence over the future policies of the regime. The new South Sudan is
desperately in need of building its entire infrastructure, including government
administration, education, health care, agriculture and transportation. A failed state
because of inadequate support would adversely affect all of Africa and also the U.S. and
other nations.

Even if an increase in total foreign aid from the U.S. is not financially feasible, assistance
to Sudan should be elevated to a high priority, utilizing funds already allocated for
such programs as agriculture, health and education.

— President Carter

A.Sometimes foreign aid and diplomacy constitute a good investment, earning a strong
return — and I would argue that that is the case with support for South Sudan. If South
Sudan falls apart, we’ll end up spending billions and billions of dollars in coming years
and decades dealing with humanitarian and other catastrophes. Isn’t it smarter — as
well as simply the right thing to do — to help it stand on its feet in the next couple of
years? Indeed, I would argue that the very modest sums we’ve invested over the last
few years in Sudan diplomacy appear to have averted a new war, at least so far — and
one estimate is that the average African war imposes economic costs of about $100
billion. Not a bad return.
— Nicholas Kristof
Q.What ARE the implications for the Darfur region? Will Darfur, or any part of it, have
the immense suffering of its people relieved by being included, in “Africa’s newest
country”?

– Robert John Bennett

A.All three Darfur states are in northern Sudan, so there will be minimal change in the
relationships that have caused the serious altercation between the Darfur rebel groups
and the government forces under President Bashir. Further close ties between Darfur
groups and the SPLM in S. Sudan will probably be terminated because this would be
interpreted in the north as a foreign nation giving assistance to troops dedicated to the
overthrow of the government in N. Sudan. In fact, Mini Minawi, one of the Darfur
leaders, has left S. Sudan as probable independence approaches. It is hoped that there
will be renewed mediation efforts by the international community to resolve Darfur’s
crisis, but it is more likely that N-S issues to implement the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement terms will get top priority. Many people are speaking of peace talks to
supplement those in Doha, Qatar, either within Darfur or Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, but
no such decision has yet been made.
— President Carter

A.That’s a great question, and we just don’t know the answer. As you can see from the
map, Darfur and South Sudan share a common border, and some Darfuris may see
South Sudan’s secession as a reason to continue fighting. Darfuris, Arabs and non-
Arabs alike, have the same complaints about marginalization, neglect and brutality by
Khartoum that southerners have had. Indeed, the negotiations toward peace between
north and south in 2003 were a reason for the outbreak of the Darfur insurgency — the
Darfuris worried about being left out. I also worry about secessionist feeling in eastern
Sudan, and about the impact of secession on two areas — Nuba Mountains and Blue
Nile State — that are emotionally part of the south but that now find themselves in the
north.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.Do you think that there is any chance the International Criminal Court will drop their
charges against President Bashir should he cooperate with the south’s secession?

– Kirstie

A.There is little chance that the International Criminal Court will consider dropping
charges against President Bashir until an appropriate peace agreement comes to Darfur.
This will not be affected by South Sudan’s independence. It is possible that a South
Sudan government would decide to permit Bashir to visit the new nation, but this
question has not yet been answered.
— President Carter
A.I don’t see charges being dropped. I don’t know if Bashir will be brought to The
Hague, but I don’t see the court lifting the indictment.
— Nicholas Kristof

How will the independence affect foreign countries’ investment in South Sudan’s oil
and other mineral resources that have long funded Sudanese government’s militia
against the people of Darfur? Will that change at all? How are countries like China and
Russia, who have huge stakes in Sudan’s oil, viewing the referendum?

– Serena Mithbaokar

A.It is not expected that foreign investments in Sudanese oil production will be affected
by southern independence, because both Sudanese nations and oil producers wish
income from oil to continue. Both China and Russia have monitoring teams in Sudan
for the referendum, and it is presumed that both nations wish to see a calm and
peaceful result.
— President Carter

A.China has played a surprisingly helpful role in the last few months. For many years it
has been part of the problem — protecting Khartoum diplomatically and supplying it
weapons relentlessly — but last year it seemed to realize that if the south seceded, it
might be left out in the cold. So it became engaged in the diplomacy to avoid war, built
ties with the south, and (as far as I can tell) exerted a moderating influence on the north.
In general, foreign investors have been wary of the south, not least because of the risk of
a new war. If secession goes peacefully, expect more investment.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.Looking at a satellite map, there is a clear line dividing north and south (green and
seemingly fertile below, tan/arid above). If the south also has the lion’s share of the oil,
then what does the north have going for itself (besides oil sharing)? In other words,
what are the incentives to remain in the north?

– Cook

A.President Bashir has informed me that southerners living in the north will retain all
their former rights except to vote and hold civil service and military positions.
President Kiir has expressed willingness to accept any of these people who desire to
move their families to the south. Those who decide to remain in the north will be
influenced by their many years of dwelling there and existing ties of culture, business,
intermarriage and possibly religion. In the neighborhood of Khartoum, there are many
more opportunities for amenities like education, health care and financial income than
other places in N. or S. Sudan.
— President Carter
A.I’m not sure if you’re referring to the incentives for individuals to stay in the north, or
for regions to stay in the north. In the case of regions, there’s some risk of further
fracturing by parts of the country, including Darfur and the east. In the case of
individuals, the north is still far more prosperous than the south and a far more
comfortable place to live. Khartoum is actually a bustling, dynamic economy, fueled by
oil revenue (which will continue to some degree for years, until the south builds a
pipeline to the south) and providing lots of jobs. That will keep some southerners in the
north — especially because some have lived in Khartoum for many, many years.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.In the event of a secession who will oversee the inevitable mass migrations of peoples
from the north to the south so that the perils of past historical migrations (i.e. the
partition of India) can be best curbed?

– Dave M

A.Each government will establish policies for the crossing of the new international
border that will separate the two nations. The most serious existing problem is the
movement of the Misseriya nomadic tribes in Abyei who have historically moved their
cattle from the north to the south for seasonal access to grazing and water. President
Salva Kiir has told me that he will respect these rights, but they must be defined within
the overall CPA agreement involving the Abyei region.
— President Carter

A.One of the immediate concerns is the safety of southerners in the Khartoum area if
and when the south announces that it will secede. There are fewer northerners in the
south, but they are also vulnerable. And as President Carter notes, there has to be a
mechanism to reassure the Misseriya that they can continue to move their herds across
the border — and, more broadly, there must be a deal on dividing Abyei. If there’s a
flashpoint that could blow up the entire referendum process, it’s the continued
uncertainty about what will happen to Abyei.
— Nicholas Kristof

PART 3:

This is a historic week in Sudan, with a referendum underway on secession for the
south — and a process that is likely to lead to a new nation of South Sudan (although it
may choose a different name for itself). Former President Jimmy Carter is on the
ground there, monitoring the voting, and he has been answering questions from
readers with me. Read the first and second batches of answers, and here’s the third and
last installment.

Q.Would there be any possibility of establishing truth and reconciliation commission in


Sudan?
— Rajesh KC

A.I see little chance of establishing a truth and reconciliation commission unless it is
part of a comprehensive peace agreement to end the conflict in Darfur.

— President Carter

A.I think the north would be very reluctant to have such a commission, and the south’s
priority is moving on with independence. Beyond that — and this feels like heresy — I
don’t know that there’s much evidence that truth and reconciliation commissions are a
particularly great way to spend money. The South African commission was a huge
success, yes. But other examples of post-war reconciliation, such as Mozambique and
post-Biafra Nigeria, have been based on forgetting the past rather than inspecting it. I
wonder if the most effective route to peace and stability isn’t investment in jobs, rather
than in a truth and reconciliation commission. Let me know if you disagree, as I’m sure
many of you will.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.What role are other African leaders playing in the expected new nation – from the
transition process to the creation of the new government?

— abandele1

A.The African Union is playing the major role in efforts to implement all facets of the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005, with former president of South Africa, Thabo
Mbeki, designated as the leader of this assignment. Other international leaders
including those in the U.N. and the U.S., are deferring to Mbeki’s leadership. An
additional important counseling and advisory responsibility has been assumed by
Prime Minister Meles of Ethiopia as head of IGAD, a group of seven nations in East
Africa. The U.N. has assigned former president Mkapa of Tanzania to head a special
panel to monitor the referendum and major responsibilities in Darfur are held by senior
U.N. representatives from Nigeria and Eritrea. It is clear that African leaders are in
charge of the present and future responsibilities.

— President Carter

A.Let me just add that it is great to see African leaders stepping up to the plate in South
Sudan and Ivory Coast (though not in Zimbabwe, with occasional exceptions). Given
the sensitivities in Africa to outside pressure, peer pressure tends to be far more
effective – but it’s precisely what African leaders historically haven’t exercised much of,
and the result has been appalling misgovernance that has harmed the reputation of the
entire African continent. Beyond Africa, it would be nice to see more developing
countries – India and Indonesia would be logical candidates – showing more leadership
in standing up to thugs and tyrants in the developing world, and standing up for
democracy and human rights.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.What do you think the regional implications are for secession? Eritrea seceded from
Ethiopia in 1993 and has been at war with them twice since over minor border issues,
similar to Abyei. Somaliland in the former Somalia is looking to secede from the
defunct state and gain international recognition. What about the national implications?
Could Darfur eventually secede from Sudan? What about lesser known groups within
Sudan and in the larger region, how can they be convinced that secession is not the
answer to problems they may be facing – or should they be allowed the right to secede?
— jforauer

A.The Carter Center was deeply involved in negotiations that ultimately led to the
secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, who
overthrew the former dictator Mengistu, was strongly in favor of Eritrea’s
independence. Historically, Eritrea had enjoyed the status of a separate entity.
Somaliland has been making orderly and relatively peaceful progress toward
separation from the rest of war torn Somalia, and has elected political leaders without
serious disputes. These two cases have relatively positive support from the larger
African and international community.

The general presumption at this time is that the grievances of the people of Darfur and
other parts of Sudan could be addressed by providing greater autonomy and resources
for these regions.

— President Carter

A.The traditional view in Africa was that all colonial borders had to be accepted, rather
than open a Pandora’s Box. The creation of Eritrea and perhaps now South Sudan are
undermining that view. I think Somaliland deserves status as an independent country,
although recognition will have to come initially from African counties rather than
Western powers. I bet that the South Sudan independence may give a boost to hopes
(probably unrealistic) in the Ogaden for independence from Ethiopia. And who knows
what will happen in Darfur and the east of the country.
— Nicholas Kristof

Q.If we are prepared to accept a new country in Sudan, wouldn’t we therefore logically
follow that by accepting a new country in Palestine?

—Orange

A.The ultimate status of the Palestinian people, supported by the international


community, is to govern their own independent state, with the border with Israel being
the line established prior to the 1967 war. Modifications to this delineation would be
made by common agreement between Israel and Palestine by swapping small areas of
land on a 1:1 basis.

— President Carter

A.In Africa, the obstacle to creation of a new state has been the tradition I mentioned a
moment ago that colonial borders had to be respected or the whole continent would fall
apart. That hasn’t been the obstacle in the Middle East. Now everybody (in theory)
accepts the necessity of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, but the problem
is how you get there. The challenges include disagreements about borders, Palestinian
disunity, and steadily encroaching Israeli settlements that swallow up the land. And
each side radicalizes the other: Hamas empowers settlers, and settlers empower Hamas.
Alas, I’m not very optimistic.
— Nicholas Kristof
------------------
Obama congratulates Sudanese, urges restraint (AFP)

WASHINGTON – US President Barack Obama congratulated the Sudanese Sunday for


what he called an inspiring referendum on their country's future, but urged calm as an
expected secession is worked out.

"The referendum now moves into another phase, and while official results will not be
available for some time, independent observers have been extremely encouraged by the
credibility of the process to date," Obama said in a statement.

"We urge all parties to continue to urge calm and show restraint as the parties work to
complete implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement."

Partial results trickling in after seven days of voting showed a landslide for secession of
mainly Christian southern Sudan from the Muslim north, antagonists in a devastating
1983-2005 civil war.

South Sudan's president Salva Kiir urged his people to forgive the north for the war, in
which an estimated two million people died.

"The sight of so many Sudanese casting their votes in a peaceful and orderly fashion
was an inspiration to the world and a tribute to the determination of the people and
leaders of south Sudan to forge a better future," Obama said.

He commended the organizers of the referendum and the domestic and international
observers, but "most of all, the voters who turned out in high numbers and high spirits
to take their turn at the ballot box."
"The past week has given the world renewed faith in the prospect of a peaceful,
prosperous future for all of the Sudanese people -- a future that the American people
long to see in Sudan," he said.
------------------
After Sudan Vote, U.S. to Face Fresh Challenges (Wall Street Journal)

BENTIU, Sudan—This week's independence referendum in southern Sudan marks an


apparent victory for U.S. foreign policy in east Africa—one that has secured for
Washington a deeper advisory role in what is expected to be the birth of a new,
impoverished nation.

As southern Sudanese cast votes through Saturday on whether to separate from Sudan's
north, they are expected to choose independence overwhelmingly. Southern officials
said Wednesday that turnout for the referendum—the culmination of decades of civil
wars between the mostly Christian south and predominantly Muslim north that has left
millions dead and millions more displaced—had reached the 60% threshold required to
validate the results.

More photos and interactive graphics A key player in this effort is retired Air Force
Gen. Scott Gration, the U.S. special envoy to Sudan. In pressing for the vote, he came
under criticism for negotiating with the administration of Sudanese President Omar al-
Bashir, a northerner indicted for war crimes and under U.S. sanctions.

Now the top U.S. diplomat on Sudan is at the center of the U.S.'s next challenge here—
assisting in the delicate process of helping to secure what many hope will be a lasting
peace among two sides entangled by oil disputes, territorial disagreements and decades
of violence.

Sudan is a top U.S. foreign-policy priority in Africa, seen as a bulwark in a volatile east
and central Africa beset by terror threats and rebel groups. Should Sudan return to
conflict, it could cost thousands of lives, set back the region's nascent economic progress
and cost as much as $100 billion over a decade in peacekeeping efforts and regional
economic losses, estimates Frontier Economics, a London-based research firm.

Even if the south secedes as expected, the north and south must still decide on how to
share oil revenues. Production and concessions in the oil-rich south have long been
controlled by the north, and it will take time before the south is able to assume control
of the business or open its doors to Western companies.

An independent south Sudan would depend on U.S. and other Western support to
build its infrastructure, which is now almost nonexistent. Other unresolved issues
include ethnic divisions within the south's own territory as well as the fate of Abyei, a
region disputed between north and south where territorial clashes between rival ethnic
groups broke out this week.
The distance left to cover was clear during a visit this week by Gen. Gration to Bentiu, a
dusty regional capital alongside a sleepy river.

Taban Deng, the local governor, sat alongside Gen. Gration in the shade of an old tree,
away from the sweltering heat and the town's mud-and-stick huts and metal-shack
shops. When, the governor wanted to know, would the diplomat bring American
investors to town?

"You need to have security, infrastructure, first," Gen. Gration said, adding: "And
swimming pools—Americans love swimming pools."

The governor laughed. But his question underscored the expectations southerners have
placed on the U.S. amid its larger role as a mediator and adviser. The south still
struggles to provide basic services for its people—about 90% live on less than $1 a day.
For now, much of the government budget is spent on salaries and equipment for its
security forces, which it views as essential to keeping the peace.

A referendum over the fate of south Sudan was a condition of a peace agreement
brokered in 2005 to end the last civil war between the north and south. Many in south
Sudan were skeptical that it would ever be held.

"When I took this job, very few people thought we'd have an opportunity to have a
referendum on time," said Gen. Gration, a former fighter pilot who is the son of
missionaries to Africa.

"I'm not saying I did it—I don't think that I did," Gen. Gration said in a conversation
aboard a charter plane as it flew over vast, unpopulated stretches of southern Sudan, a
region slightly larger than Texas. "But the Obama administration's approach has yielded
some positive results."

The vote was pushed over the past six months by longtime U.S. Africa diplomat
Princeton Lyman and U.S. Sen. John Kerry, who in part cajoled the central government
in the northern city of Khartoum. In a letter to the government, President Barack Obama
wrote that if Khartoum let the referendum proceed peacefully and on time, the U.S.
would consider removing Sudan from its list of terrorism sponsors.

Gen. Scott Gration, U.S. envoy to Sudan, speaks Wednesday with southern Sudan Vice
President Riek Machar.
Gen. Gration has been criticized by groups like the Enough Project, an antigenocide
group that focuses mainly on the Darfur region in western Sudan. These people have
said he has been too soft on Mr. Bashir's regime, which has been for decades accused of
committing atrocities against civilians. Within the administration, U.N. Ambassador
Susan Rice also favored a more forceful approach to Khartoum.
John Prendergast, an Enough Project founder, credited Mr. Obama's leadership and the
southern government's determination. The cajoling of Mr. Bashir's representatives by
Gen. Gration and others, he adds, was "important" but less significant than the efforts
from other players.

Gen. Gration said talks with the north have been essential to advancing the peace
process. Mr. Bashir "is the president of the sovereign nation where we work," he said.
"There's no question he's calling the shots. Obviously, there are things we don't like. But
we work with what we like, and try to influence change with what's not acceptable."

Southern officials haven't always all welcomed Gen. Gration's outreach to Khartoum.
But on Monday, Riek Machar, the charismatic vice president of southern Sudan, said he
approved of the U.S. efforts.

Now that the referendum is out of the way, Mr. Machar said it would be easier for the
south and north to resolve outstanding issues—Abyei, he said, being the priority. "This
time we will devote our time to it more," he said, speaking from a plastic chair set out in
the shade near his home. "We have this issue to address squarely, without trying to get
trade-offs."
------------------
US official: Sudan not helping rebel leader Kony (Associated Press)

JUBA, Sudan — The leader of the brutal rebel group the Lord's Resistance Army has
crossed back into Congo after having been in Sudan, a Ugandan official said Friday,
while a U.S. official said he has seen no evidence Sudan was helping the rebel leader.

Joseph Kony entered the Darfur region of Sudan in October, according to the Ugandan
military, and Ugandan officials were worried he may have been receiving support from
officials in Sudan's capital.

Khartoum once backed Kony but severed the relationship in 2005, at the signing of a
peace agreement between Sudan's north and south. Southern Sudan on Saturday wraps
up a seven-day vote on an independence referendum likely to lead to the creation of the
world's newest country.

Karl Wycoff, the U.S. Deputy Assistance Secretary for African Affairs said Friday he has
seen no evidence of support from Sudan to the LRA, though he said he was aware of
the allegation.

"It's something we closely monitor," Wycoff said during a telephone conference with
journalists.
Ugandan army spokesman Felix Kulayigye said Kony has left Darfur and crossed back
into Congo. Kulayigye, who did not say when Kony crossed back over, also said
Ugandan officials have no evidence of any support to Kony from Khartoum.

Kony, like Sudan's president, is wanted by the International Criminal Court. Kony's
group has been accused of mass kidnappings, killings and other atrocities since it began
its attacks in Uganda more than 20 years ago. Kony's 2005 ICC warrant seeks him for
crimes against humanity in his native Uganda.

In November the U.S. announced a new strategy to counter the LRA's attacks on
civilians. U.S. legislation passed last year called for the coordination of U.S. diplomatic,
economic, intelligence and military efforts against the LRA.

The U.S., Wycoff said, has been working for years to a resolution of the LRA problem,
including support of regional military efforts.

"We applaud the efforts to eliminate the threat posed by the Lord's Resistance Army,"
Wycoff said.

U.S. Gen. William Ward, the commander of the U.S. military's Africa command, met
with Ugandan military leaders last Sunday, during which they discussed the hunt for
Kony, said Kulayigye.

In late 2008 the Ugandan government launched Operation Lighting Thunder, a hunt for
Kony's group that forced LRA fighters to scatter in small groups. Pockets of fighters are
believed to be operating in Sudan, Congo, and Central African Republic.

Uganda's military is the primary force searching out Kony and his men in all three of
those countries. The Small Arms Survey, a research project that monitors armed
violence, said Friday that Uganda has 2,400 troops in the three countries searching for
LRA fighters. That is down from 7,000 troops two years earlier, the Small Arms Survey
said.

Estimates of the LRA's overall strength are in the 200 to 400 range.

A report from the Enough Project last year said that Kony no longer has complete and
direct command and control over each LRA unit because they scattered. The LRA is
now at its weakest point in 15 years, and Kony has less influence over his troops than
ever before, the report said.
------------------
Violence-scarred Tunisia announces new government (Associated Press)

TUNIS, Tunisia -- Tunisia's prime minister announced a national unity government on


Monday, allowing opposition into the country's leadership for the first time in a bid to
quell simmering unrest following the ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali amid
huge street protests.

Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi, a longtime ally of Ben Ali, and several top
ministers retained their posts in the shake-up. Ghannouchi also announced that political
prisoners would be freed, among an array of measures aimed at loosening up a political
system that for decades was effectively under one-party rule.

A key question was whether the changes in the government lineup would be enough to
stabilize the North African country that has been reeling amid continued unrest after
Ben Ali fled fled on Friday - 23 years after he first took power.

Ghannouchi, who has been premier since 1999 and has kept his post throughout the
upheaval, said the current ministers of defense, interior and foreign affairs would keep
their posts.

Three opposition figures, including Nejib Chebbi, a founder of the opposition PDP
party, will take up posts in the government - a breakthrough in a country that the
autocratic Ben Ali led for more than two decades.

Until new presidential elections are held, the country is being run by interim president
Fouad Mebazaa, former speaker of the lower house of parliament, also a veteran of
Tunisia's ruling party.

Ghannouchi said all nongovernmental associations that seek it would be automatically


recognized, and all the restrictions on the Tunisian League for the Defense of Human
Rights would be lifted.

Many opponents of Ben Ali's rule have taken to the streets to express their hopes that
the new government would not include of any remnants of his iron-fisted regime.

Earlier Monday, security forces fired tear gas to repel angry demonstrators ahead of the
announcement. In a later march, a small, peaceful gruop of youths carried signs reading
"GET OUT" - under the gaze of watchful police, part of hundreds of security forces in
the capital.

A union leader upset at the prospect of a government full of old guard ministers,
predicted growing demonstrations to press for an end to power positions for the RCD.

"It (RCD) left by the back door and is coming back through the window," said Habib
Jerjir, member of the executive bureau of the Regional Workers' Union of Tunis. "We
can't have militias in the streets and in the government.
Ghannouchi said the government would create three new state commissions to study
political reform, investigate corruption and bribery, and examine

Ghannouchi didn't refer to the prospect of new elections, which under Tunisia's
constitution must be called within 60 days. But some members of the opposition want
more time, to allow the public to get know the choices in a country known for one-party
rule - and possibly on the cusp of democracy.

"The RCD still holds the power," said Hedi Guazaouni, 29. With the potential for
change after Ben Ali's flight from the country Friday, "This is a chance not to be missed,"
he said.

Hylel Belhassen, a 51-year-old insurance salesman, summing up the concerns of some,


saying: "We're afraid that the president has left, but the powers-that-be remain. We're
afraid of being manipulated."

The European Union said Monday it stands ready to help Tunisia become a democracy
and offer economic aid.

Finance Minister Christine Lagarde of France - a former colonial overseer of Tunisia -


told French radio Monday that Paris is keeping a close watch on the assets of Tunisians
in French banks.

During a visit to neighboring Algeria on Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama's top
counterterrorism official John Brennan said the United States stands ready to help
Tunisian government in holding "free and fair elections in the near future that reflect
the true will and aspirations" of Tunisians.

Moncef Marzouki, a professor of medicine who leads the once-banned CPR party from
exile in France where he has lived for the last 20 years, told France-Info radio he would
be a candidate in the presidential election.

"The question is whether there will be or won't be free and fair elections," said
Marzouki, whose movement is of the secular left.

Whatever emerges, the new leadership will first face the challenge of restoring order.
Looting, gunbattles, and score-settling have roiled the country since Friday, when a
month of street protests against years of repression, corruption and a lack of jobs
brought down Ben Ali.

Shops in the center of Tunis remained shuttered Monday, and police were deployed in
force. A semblance of normal daily life returned in other areas of the capital where
shops, gas stations, pharmacies and supermarkets reopened. Many people returned to
their jobs and others rushed to buy scarce stables like bread, fish and milk.
Hundreds of stranded tourists were still being evacuated from the country, and foreign
airlines gradually resumed the flights that were halted when Tunisian airspace closed
amid the upheaval.

Over the weekend, police arrested dozens of people, including the top presidential
security chief, as tensions appeared to mount between Tunisians buoyant over Ben Ali's
ouster and loyalists in danger of losing many perks.

Ex-presidential security chief Ali Seriati and his deputy were charged with a plot
against state security, aggressive acts and for "provoking disorder, murder and
pillaging," the TAP state news agency reported.

Fierce gunbattles broke out between the two groups around the presidential palace
Sunday in Carthage on the Mediterranean shore, north of Tunis and near the Interior
Ministry in the capital.

The protests began last month after an educated but jobless 26-year-old set himself on
fire when police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he was selling without a permit.
His desperate act - from which he later died - hit a nerve, sparked copycat suicides and
focused anger against the regime into a widespread revolt.

Reports of self-immollations surfaced in Egypt, Mauritania and Algeria on Monday, in


apparent imitation of the Tunisian events.

The downfall of the 74-year-old Ben Ali, who had taken power in a bloodless coup in
1987, served as a warning to other autocratic leaders in the Arab world. His
Mediterranean nation, an ally in the U.S. fight against terrorism and a popular tourist
destination known for its wide beaches, deserts and ancient ruins, had seemed more
stable than many in the region.
------------------
Clinton urges reforms by new Tunisian govt (Associated Press)

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday urged


Tunisia's new leadership to restore order and adopt broad economic and political
reforms in the wake of the popular revolt that overthrew the North African nation's
authoritarian president.

At the same time, the State Department rejected claims that revelations of rampant
corruption in leaked U.S. diplomatic documents had sparked the uprising.

The department also issued a travel warning to U.S. citizens, suggesting they forgo
travel to the country and consider leaving if already there, and authorized the
departure of nonessential U.S. Embassy personnel and of all family members of U.S.
staff at government expense.

In a phone call to Tunisian Foreign Minister Kamal Merjan, Clinton offered U.S. support
for Tunisia as it transitions from the autocratic rule of ex-President Zine El Abidine Ben
Ali. Clinton called for the government to address the underlying causes of the popular
discontent that fueled the uprising, such as unemployment and poverty.

"She urged that the government work to re-establish order in the country in a
responsible manner as quickly as possible," the State Department said in a statement
released as looting and violence continued to rock Tunisia in the aftermath of Ben Ali's
ouster on Friday. "She also underscored the importance of addressing popular concerns
about the lack of civil liberties and economic opportunities, and the need to move
forward with credible democratic elections."

Clinton said she was encouraged by remarks by Prime Minister Mohammed


Ghannouchi and interim President Fouad Mebazaa "indicating a willingness to work
with Tunisians across the political spectrum and within civil society to build a truly
representative government."

A day before Ben Ali fled the country, Clinton delivered a stark warning to Arab
leaders that they must open economic and political space to the Mideast's exploding
youth population if they wanted to blunt extremism and prevent unrest and rebellion.
In a speech in the Qatari capital of Doha on Thursday, Clinton said the foundations of
development and progress in the Middle East were "sinking into the sand" and would
continue to do so unless reforms were enacted.

Meanwhile Sunday, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley rejected suggestions that
blunt assessments of Ben Ali and his family, their lavish lifestyles and graft contained in
cables released by the WikiLeaks website had contributed to discontent over high
unemployment and poor economy.

Crowley said in a Tweet that Tunisians were well aware of the situation long before
WikiLeaks published the cables and that Tunisians alone were responsible for the
uprising.

Many commentators have suggested that the cables contributed to the discontent. Some
have said the developments constitute the first "WikiLeaks revolution," something that
Crowley dismissed.

"Tunisia is not a Wiki revolution," he said. "The Tunisian people knew about corruption
long ago. They alone are the catalysts of this unfolding drama."
The cables described the extravagances of Ben Ali and his cronies, particularly those of
his wife, Leila Trabelsi, whose family had financial interests from banking to car
dealerships. Looters and vandals have hit some of those interests in the days since the
president left amid street protests and violence.
------------------
US denies WikiLeaks spurred revolt in Tunisia (Associated Press)

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration is rejecting claims that revelations of


rampant corruption in Tunisia in secret U.S. diplomatic documents sparked the popular
revolt that overthrew the authoritarian leadership of the North African nation.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Sunday that Tunisians were well aware
of the graft, nepotism and lavish lifestyles led by ex-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali
and his family long before the WikiLeaks website published the diplomatic cables.

Crowley said in a Tweet that the Tunisian people alone are the catalysts for the uprising
that saw the autocratic Ben Ali flee the country on Friday.

Many commentators have suggested that the blunt assessments of Ben Ali and his
family contained in the leaked cables contributed to discontent over high
unemployment and poor economy that fomented the revolt.
------------------
Tunisia: How the US got it wrong (Al Jazeera)

One sign read "Game Over". But in fact, the game has barely started.

The Facebook generation has taken to the streets and the "Jasmin Revolt" has become a
revolution, at least as of the time of writing. And the flight of former President Ben Ali
to Saudi Arabia is inspiring people across the Arab world to take to the streets and
warn their own sclerotic and autocratic leaders that they could soon face a similar fate.

As the French paper Le Monde described it, scenes that were "unimaginable only days
ago" are now occurring with dizzying speed. Already, in Egypt, Egyptians celebrate
and show solidarity over Tunisia's collapse, chanting "Kefaya" and "We are next, we are
next, Ben Ali tell Mubarak he is next." Protests in Algeria and Jordan could easily
expand thanks to the inspiration of the tens of thousands of Tunisians, young and old,
working and middle class, who toppled one of the world's most entrenched dictators.
Arab bloggers are hailing what has happened in Tunisia as "the African revolution
commencing... the global anti-capitalist revolution."

The birth of a human nationalism?

Around the turn of the new millennium, as the Arab world engaged in an intense
debate over the nature of the emerging globalised system, one critic in the newspaper
al-Nahar declared that an "inhuman globalisation" has been imposed on the Arab world
when its peoples have yet even to be allowed to develop a "human" nationalism. Such a
dynamic well describes the history of Tunisia, and most other countries in the
Arab/Muslim world as well.

And so, if the people of Tunisia are lucky, they are in the midst of midwifing the Arab
world's first human nationalism, taking control of their politics, economy and identity
away from foreign interests and local elites alike in a manner that has not been seen in
more than half a century.

But the way is still extremely treacherous. As a member of the Tajdid opposition party
told the Guardian, "Totalitarianism and despotism aren't dead. The state is still polluted
by that political system, the ancient regime and its symbols which have been in place
for 55 years."

Indeed, the problem with most post-colonial nationalisms - whether that of the first
generation of independence leaders or of the leaders who replaced (often by
overthrowing) them - is precisely that they have always remained infected with the
virus of greed, corruption and violence so entrenched by decades of European colonial
rule. Tunisia's nascent revolution will only succeed if it can finally repair the damage
caused by French rule and the post-independence regime that in so many ways
continued to serve European and American - rather than Tunisian - interests.

A region's tipping point

The stakes could not be higher. The "Tunisian Scenario" could lead either to a greater
democratic opening across the Arab world, or it could lead to the situation in Algeria in
the early 1990s, where democratisation was abruptly halted and the country plunged
into civil war when it seemed that an Islamist government might come to power. We
can be sure that leaders across the Arab world are busy planning how to stymie any
attempts by their people to emulate the actions of Tunisia's brave citizenry. But at this
moment of such great historical consequence what is the US doing about the situation?

The timing couldn't have been more fortuitous, as Secretary of State Clinton was in the
Middle East meeting with Arab political and civil society leaders at the moment events
took their fateful turn. Yet when asked directly about the protests the day before Ben
Ali fled her answer said volumes about the mentality of the Obama administration and
the larger US and European foreign policy establishments to the unfolding situation.

"We can't take sides."

A more tone deaf response would have been hard to imagine. This was a moment when
the Obama administration could have seized the reins of history and helped usher in a
new era in the Arab/Muslim world world. In so doing it could have done more to
defeat the forces of extremism than a million soldiers in AfPak and even more drone
strikes could ever hope to accomplish. And Mrs. Clinton declared America's attention to
remain on the sideline.

Obama's Reagan moment

Can we imagine that President Reagan, for whom Obama has declared his admiration,
refusing to take sides as young people began dismantling the Iron Curtain? Indeed,
even when freedom seemed a distant dream, Reagan went to Berlin and challenged
Gorbachev to "tear down this wall!"

It's not as if the Obama administration doesn't understand what kind of regime it was
dealing with in Tunisia. As the now infamous WikiLeaks cable from the US
Ambassador in Tunis to his superiors in Washington made clear, "By many measures,
Tunisia should be a close US ally. But it is not." Why? "The problem is clear: Tunisia has
been ruled by the same president for 22 years."

Indeed, WikiLeaks did Clinton and Obama's job: It told the truth, and in doing so was a
catalyst for significant change in the country - yet another example of how the release of
all those classified documents has helped, rather than harmed, American interests (or at
least the interests of the American people, if not its political and economic elite), even if
the Obama administration refuses to admit it.

What is clear is that if the massacre in Tuscon last week might have provided Obama
with his "Clinton moment", as he eloquently led the country on the path towards unity
and healing, the Jasmin Revolution has handed him his Reagan moment. Obama needs
to stop playing catch up to events, lay aside hesitation and throw his support behind
radical change in the region, behind young people across the Middle East and North
Africa who could topple the regimes who have done more to increase terrorism that
Osama bin Laden could dream of accomplishing.

Decades of support despite repression

The US has understood and even welcomed this very dynamic in Tunisia for the last
half century. A 1963 Congressional report on "US Foreign Aid to 10 Middle Eastern and
African Countries" stated positively about Tunisia that "Tunisia has been known for its
internal political stability and unity... This fact, unique in a ME country, can be
explained by the existence of an unopposed single-party rule... Under the vigorous
leadership of President Bourguiba, Tunisia offers a favourable and stable political
climate, progressive in its outlook, in which to bring about economic development. US
aid should be continued at the same or higher level," the report advised.

In recent years the US position has been little different. The Tunisian regime was
supported by the United States because it was secular, cooperated on the "War on
Terror" and followed, at least on the surface, liberal economic reforms. And European
support for Ben Ali was even stronger, with successive French governments openly
declaring their preference for stability and cooperation against illegal immigration and
the threat of terror to supporting the kind of democratic transformation that would
have gone much farther to securing those goals.

During the Bush administration, then Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick
rebuffed attempts by local journalists to get him to admit to a double standard in calling
for human rights without actually supporting them in countries like Tunisia and Egypt.
The Bush administration supported draconian anti-terrorism laws that were clearly
used to repress any opposition to the regime.

Today, Clinton declares that in fact the US doesn't have much power in the region. "We
can't force people to do what we want," she explained in Doha at the Forum of the
Future earlier this week, emphasising reforms that were focused far more on "economic
empowerment, rather than political change," according to the Washington Post. Clinton
never even mentioned the word democracy in her prepared remarks, or human rights
for that matter.

And while she preached the gospel of reform and civil society, Clinton praised the
record of another despotic regime, Bahrain, whose foreign minister participated in the
forum with her. This even though the country's record of censorship and political
repression lags little behind Tunisia's, if at all, as the annual Human Rights Reports of
Clinton's State Department clearly show.

Taking history's reins

The WikiLeaks cable that by many accounts helped encourage the protests that have
now toppled the Ben Ali regime had the virtue of being honest, as it explained that the
incredibly deep and endemic corruption up through the very top of a regime that had
completely "lost ouch with the Tunisian people" produced an untenable situation.

It's clear, then, that the US understood the problems plaguing Tunisia, so why didn't
Clinton speak as openly as her ambassador in Tunis? Imagine what support she would
have gotten from the people of Tunisia if she only stated what everyone already knew?
If at the very least she had, as her ambassador urged in the then classified communique,
declared America's intent to "keep a strong focus on democratic reform and respect for
human rights," words that the US would not utter directly and openly until Ben Ali had
fled the country.

The question now is, does Obama have the courage, the "audacity", to use one of his
favourite words, to seize the moment?
Once Ben Ali had fled the country, the President did salute "brave and determined
struggle for the universal rights", applauded "the courage and dignity of the Tunisian
people", and called on the Tunisian government "to respect human rights, and to hold
free and fair elections in the near future that reflect the true will and aspirations of the
Tunisian people".

But unless there is a stick behind this call, there is every reason to believe, as so many
Tunisians and other commentators worry, that the country's corrupt and still powerful
elite will find a way to remain entrenched in power once the situation calms down.
Indeed, Obama's call to "maintain calm" is counter productive. While violence is of
course deplorable, the worst thing for Tunisians to do would be to remain calm, to tone
down their protests and leave the streets.

Now is the time for Tunisians to ensure that the revolution that is just sprouting is not
cut off or co-opted. The protests need to continue and even expand until the
foundations of the regime are uprooted and other senior officials removed from power
and sent into exile as Ben Ali has now been.

What is President Obama going to do if they emulate their colleagues in Iran and
ruthlessly suppress further protests? If he and other world leaders don't lay out the
scenario to the Tunisian people and the elites still trying to contain them now, so
everyone understands what the United States will do to support the people, what
incentive will those seeking to retain power have to take another route?

Crucial next steps

While the United States and the international community should not directly intervene
unless the military begins killing or arresting large numbers of people, there are a
number of steps Obama could take immediately to ensure that this nascent democratic
moment takes root and spreads across the region.

First, the President should not merely urge free and fair elections. He must publicly
declare that the United States will not recognise, nor continue security or economic
relations, with any government that is not democratically elected through international
monitored elections. At the same time, he must freeze any assets of Tunisia's now ex-
leadership and hold them until they can be reclaimed by the Tunisian people.

Second, he should declare that the young people of Tunisia have shown the example for
the rest of the Arab world, and offer his support for a "Jasmin Spring" across the Arab
world. Obama should demand that every country in the region free all political
prisoners, end all forms of censorship and political repression, and fully follow
international law in the way they treat their citizens or the people's under their
jurisdictions.
Furthermore, the President should call on every country in the region to move towards
free, fair, and internationally monitored elections within a specified time or risk facing a
similar cut-off of ties, aid and cooperation. Such demands must be made together with
America's reluctant European allies.

Of course, such a call would apply to Israel as much as to Egypt, to Morocco as well as
to Saudi Arabia. There would be one standard for every country from the Atlantic to the
Indian ocean, and the US would pledge to stand with all people working to bring real
democracy, freedom and development to their peoples and countries and to oppose all
governments that stand in their way.

Imagine what would happen to America's image in the Muslim world if the President
took such a stand? Imagine what would happen to al Qaeda's recruitment levels if he
adopted such a policy (in fact, al Qaeda has been equally behind the 8-ball, as it was
only Friday that the leaders of the movement's so-called Maghrebian wing declared
their support for the protests in Tunisia and Algeria).

Imagine how hard it would be for so-called "supporters" of Israel to attack the President
for finally putting some teeth behind his criticism of Israeli policy (which Clinton in
Doha incredulously said the US could do nothing to stop) if he could reply that he was
only holding Israel to the same standard as everyone else and that his policies were
actually protecting America's core interests and security?

Sinking in the sand

In Doha, Clinton poetically spoke of regimes whose "foundations are sinking into the
sand" and who will, it is assumed, disappear unless "reform" occurs. The reality is that
US foreign policy towards the Middle East and larger Muslim world is equally in
danger of sinking into the sands if the President and his senior officials are not willing
to get ahead of history's suddenly accelerating curve. It is the US and Europe, as much
as the leaders of the region, who in Clinton's words are in need of "a real vision for that
future."

Clinton was eloquent in her closing remarks at the Forum for the Future, where she
declared,

"Let us face honestly that future. Let us discuss openly what needs to be done. Let us
use this time to move beyond rhetoric, to put away plans that are timid and gradual,
and make a commitment to keep this region moving in the right direction. People are
looking for real leadership in the 21st century, and I think it can be provided, and I
know that this is the moment to do so."

She couldn't be more right, but it will only happen if the United States, and not the Arab
world's aging and autocratic leadership, takes her sage advice.
------------------
Cable: US knew of corruption (Al Jazeera)

A four-part series of US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks shows that the US


knew about the extent of corruption and discontent in Tunisia, and chose to support
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the now deposed Tunisian president, regardless.

Written in June of 2006 by William Hudson, the US ambassador to Tunisia, the memos
were composed just four months after Donald Rumsfeld, the then-US secretary of
defence, visited Tunisia to discuss expanding military ties between the two countries,
with the official statement released on the visit lauding Tunisia's "economic and social
progress."

The first of the four diplomatic missives focused on the economic promise of Tunisia,
where, the cable pointed out, the country had the highest per capita income in north
Africa, bested only by South Africa on the continent, with steady economic growth and
a relatively stable economic environment.

However, the memo mentioned that things likely would not remain so rosy, with
mounting unemployment and a failure to produce enough jobs to employ the growing
number of university graduates. The cable showed that the US state department even
had a very pretty good idea of how - and when - the issue of joblessness among the
youth would reach a boiling point:

Tunisia's five percent GDP growth rate has historically created approximately 70,000
new jobs annually, but experts note that over six percent growth is required to create
the extra jobs that university graduates will demand by 2010 when approximately
80,000 job seekers enter the economy annually.

Furthermore, the cable, released by Swedish newspaper Aftenposten, indicated that


there was frustration among the general population who felt that only those with
"connections" - meaning corrupt ties - could get ahead, and this "perception" of the lack
of opportunity spelled the need for imminent, rapid change:

... a new element is clearly emerging - younger and desiring more rapid progress,
impatient to carve out their own livelihoods, reactive to restrictions on the spirit and
energy of the most talented and educated citizens, and disdainful of the persistent
government pronounced directives of a planned economy.

Multiple levels of corruption

The second cable focused more on the rampant corruption consuming Tunisian society.
It academically broke down the types of corruption into four categories, describing how
each one takes its toll on Tunisian people:
First, there is basic bribery and extortion, which most commonly is seen among the
police and security forces. Tunisia's "police state"... Any infraction can result in the
seizure of ones documents, which requires hours of subsequent bureaucratic red tape to
resolve.

The most recent protests in the country were touched off on December 17, when
Mohammed Bouazizi, 26, attempted to commit suicide via self-immolation after police
confiscated the produce he was selling because he lacked the proper permit.

Also mentioned are "bureaucratic" corruption (whereby only a facade of accountability


is maintained), "influential" corruption (providing government officials with luxuries
and lucrative business contracts), and "first family" corruption, referring directly to Ben
Ali's family:

Despite increasingly liberal economic legislation, all key decisions, especially related to
investment and privatization, are made at the highest levels of the government -
probably by the President himself. This arrangement has permitted President Ben Ali's
extended family (siblings, in-laws, and distant relatives) to become aware of, to assert
interests in, and to carve out domains in virtually every important sector of the Tunisian
economy. .. People are now convinced that the First Family is an insatiable economic
animal bent on gratuitous enrichment and unchecked influence-wielding.

The cable reveals that the US understood the full thrust of the Ben Ali family's ability to
manipulate laws and regulations for their own personal gain as it detailed instances of
regulations and police were changed and circumvented for profit, even managing to
bully fast-food chain McDonald's out of the country as the company did not choose "the
right partner" to set up shop in the country.

No prospect for change

The third memo delves further into corruption - which it at times refers to as a "rumour"
- of government and the impact of their openly flashy lifestyles on the public psyche.
Hudson wrote:

Conspicuous consumption - from extravagant properties to luxury cars - was not


common in Tunisia ten years ago. Tunisians are increasingly frustrated with this new
development and are confused about its relevance to their daily lives. Under President
Bourguiba, Tunisians focused on achieving a good education and comfortable lifestyle,
both goals Bourguiba himself embodied. Today, elite Tunisians boldly, if not publicly,
denounce Ben Ali and the Trabelsi family as uneducated and uncultured nouveaux
riches whose conspicuous consumption is an affront to all patriotic Tunisians.
Meanwhile, even as the cable pointed out that Tunisians fear publicly criticising the Ben
Ali family and government officials, it was clear to the author that the chance for
democratically driven change was slim, as Ben Ali did not seem to be in a rush to retire.
Furthermore, it was apparent that it would be "optimistic to believe that his glacially
slow political reform 'plan' may include increased political liberties and eventually his
own departure."

The memo acknowledged the crackdown on freedoms of speech and press, saying that
they are counter to the US agenda, but no strategy is outline to pressure or incentivise
the Tunisian government to change.

The "Family"

The final memo details how Tunisians seem to see the Ben Ali family - and all
connections to it - as vital to success. The complex web of children, in-laws and other
peripheral relatives of the Ben Ali clan - or the "Family".

The key players are named, as are their fiefdoms - which seems to flesh out a view
given in an earlier memo - that the Family owns Tunisia.

However, the final memo ends on a curiously light note. It says that most Tunisians
seem to be "sympathetic" to the expanding reach of the Family. In fact, the memo ends
with a joke:

A popular joke tells of President Ben Ali being stopped by a traffic cop when out for a
drive by himself. Ben Ali explains he is the President, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, but the
cop says "Never heard of you," and takes Ben Ali to the police station. The station chief
looks at Ben Alis identification card and says, "Its okay. Hes related to the Trabelsis." [A
reference to the infamously corrupt family of Ben Ali's wife, Leila] The joke outlines
what most Tunisians feel today: compared to the strength and depth of the Trabelsi
familys grip on Tunisia, Ben Ali is inconsequential.

Hudson finished off the memo with adding that this could be "wishful thinking" and
that Ben Ali's growing influence would have to be "addressed".

Given that a 2009 memo was titled "Troubled Tunisia: What should we do?" it doesn't
seem like the US state department came up with a way to address the issues raised by
the earlier memos.
------------------
Al-Qaeda and organized crime: two sides of the same coin (Asharq Alawsat)

The name Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb [AQIM] has become synonymous with
abductions, hostage-taking operations, drug smuggling and bank robberies. The
overlap between organized crime and terrorism has become very strong to the point
that some analysts believe that Al-Qaeda is shifting from criminal activity for the
purpose of financing terrorism to [solely] making money. From the time it joined
Osama Bin Laden's organization at the end of 2006, AQIM has resorted to new means of
obtaining funds; including the abduction of foreign nationals, blackmail, and drug
smuggling.

Experts and officials from various countries have expressed their fear that Al-Qaeda's
operations have become a vital source of income to fund its attacks around the world.
Moreover, experts in Algeria have raised the issue of the current overlap between
AQIM and drug smugglers as a result of terrorists offering protection to drug
smuggling gangs across the desert. The wave of terrorist-linked abductions started in
2003 when Algerian terrorist leader Abdul-Razzaq al-Para [The Paratrooper] kidnapped
over 30 European tourists in the Algerian Sahara. Ultimately, Germany agreed to pay a
$5 million ransom. But from there on in abduction and hostage-taking became a
business. The kidnapping of Western tourists has become an important source of
income for AQIM. In northern Algeria, especially in the tribal region, terrorists are
particularly targeting wealthy men and prominent merchants in order to collect huge
ransoms. The major part of such "income" is spent on weapons, which are easily
acquired in West Africa.

AQIM's presence along the African coast is among the leading issues concerning Paris
with regards to preserving France's security, which has become a priority for the
country in its cooperation with the United States. This is according to what a French
military official was cited as saying in a US diplomatic document that was leaked by
WikiLeaks and published by the French newspaper Le Monde last month. In this
context, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has called for "better coordination instead of
competing with the Americans" in this vital field.

WikiLeaks has revealed that, in January 2010, key officials at the Elysee Palace in Paris
met with General William E. Ward, commander of the United States African Command-
AFRICOM, which is headquartered in Germany. The website disclosed that "the French
insisted on the need to improve coordination in the military field and exchange
intelligence information and development plans," according to a cable by the [US]
Embassy [in Paris]. Moreover, four months earlier, a secret meeting was also held in
Paris and was attended by US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie
Carson, in addition to European diplomats. The meeting focused upon dealing with this
situation and boosting cooperation. In the joint conclusions of the meeting, it was
mentioned that "terrorism is at the doorstep of Europe," according to Romain Serman, a
presidential adviser on Africa at the Elysee. This is while his colleague Remi Marechaux
did not hide his skepticism when he said: "We feel that we are losing the battle between
developing the countries of the coastline and the growing security threats to which
these countries have become a target."
At the same time, a cable by the US Embassy in Nouakchott (Mauritania) pointed out
that the rise in the number of successful operations carried out by the AQIM has
improved the organization's credibility in the street. This is at a time when the collected
ransom payments have reinforced the organization's ability to wage operations in the
region. It has become evident that many Mauritanian youth have become inclined
toward Al-Qaeda. The acts of violence for which Al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility
have been carried out by middle-class Mauritanians, according to another
memorandum from Nouakchott. This means that extremism is not directly associated
with poverty and is rather related to the lack of hope for the future.

Earlier this month, Moroccan authorities announced that they dismantled a terrorist cell
that comprises 27 members and is led by a Moroccan AQIM member. Day after day, the
governments of the Maghreb region and the coastline of Africa are growing
increasingly concerned as the so-called AQIM broadens the scope of its operations. This
is at a time when the AQIM members are focusing on "qualitative operations" that
involve the abduction of foreign nationals for bargaining and extortion purposes. This is
in order to force governments to negotiate with the AQIM and acknowledge it as an
influential and powerful organization in the coastline of Africa and the Sahara regions.
Since its establishment, the AQIM has sought to make the Sahara a fundamental base
for its activities. It appears that the organization has almost succeeded in its endeavor to
impose the security agenda on that region. Today, the only talk in North Africa is about
the threats posed by this organization, which has managed to back Western
governments into a corner by forcing them to negotiate with it whether directly or
indirectly. This is similar to what happened recently with the governments of Spain and
France.

The states of the region are working hard to limit the spread of this salafi organization
and cut off the sources of its funding. Reports have mentioned that, for days, Algeria
has been devotedly investigating money laundering operations carried out by some
individuals in the countries of the coastline of Africa to Al-Qaeda's advantage. This is in
light of expectations that the organization has made a lot of money through the
collection of ransom payments and illegal trafficking.

Proximity to Europe makes this region a target for Al-Qaeda on the one hand and a safe
passage for jihadists into Iraq, Afghanistan, and the other regions targeted by the
organizations that are structurally and ideologically associated with Al-Qaeda on the
other. This is in addition to the existence of vast areas that are not under security or
military surveillance. These are the so-called coastline of Africa and southern Sahara
regions. Sovereignty over these vast areas is divided between several states that do not
have sufficient technical and logistical capabilities to hold sway over them. The dangers
associated with these areas are manifest in the fact that they have transformed into a
safe field that is being exploited by extremist organizations to provide combat skills
training to those who have been drawn into these organizations and teach them how to
execute suicide operations. This is to the extent that such threats have become
disturbing for Western governments.

In fact, the region is witnessing a rise in terrorist attacks. These attacks are no longer
targeting only the housing complexes of regular citizens. Rather, they are now focused
on military and security targets within the framework of a plan that Al-Qaeda is
adopting. In a statement it issued earlier, the AQIM referred to this plan by saying that
"the mujahidin are hiding many surprises for the enemies of God in the Lands of the
Islamic Maghreb that will be delivered in a successive and escalated manner."
------------------
UN peacekeepers in Ivory Coast fire warning shots (Associated Press)

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast – United Nations peacekeepers in Ivory Coast have fired
warning shots in the air after an angry crowd confronted them.

Associated Press Television News witnessed the peacekeepers trying to disperse a


crowd Monday that had gathered near the hotel where an African Union envoy is
expected.

The crowd tried to rush the peacekeepers, who then drove off shooting in the air.

U.N. peacekeepers have come under growing threat amid Ivory Coast's political crisis
because the U.N. endorsed Alassane Ouattara as the winner.

Incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo, who refuses to cede power, has accused the U.N. of
bias and demanded that thousands of peacekeepers leave immediately.

Last week mobs and security forces allied to Gbagbo attacked at least six U.N. vehicles.
------------------
Nigerian Presidential Candidates Campaigning as Voter Registration Begins (Voice
of America)

Voter registration is underway in Africa's most populous nation as Nigerians prepare


for April elections.

More than 70 million Nigerians are eligible to vote in this presidential election, and
campaigning is well underway with all of the major parties having chosen their
candidates.

President Goodluck Jonathan is the nominee of the ruling People's Democratic Party,
which has won the past three presidential elections.

"With the present constitution, no party in Nigeria has the capacity to undo PDP," said
Delta State University Political Science Professor Isitoah Ozoemene, who says Jonathan
is the clear frontrunner, just eight months after taking charge of the party following the
death of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua. "Goodluck has been quiet. He has been
listening, and he has subtly been able to exact control. He does not shout," he added.

Jonathan broke an informal power-sharing agreement in the ruling party that rotated
the presidency between north and south. That deal said a northerner should be the
nominee for this vote to finish out what would have been President Yar'Adua's second
term.

But in the ruling party primary, Jonathan handily defeated the northern candidate,
former vice president Atiku Abubakar.

That opens the way for northern candidates from other parties, chief among them
former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari. Official Abubakar Sadiq Abba, of Buhari's
party, says Abubakar's loss in the ruling PDP primary is a big gain for Buhari.

"I believe the majority of northerners will vote Buhari from even within the PDP family,
because they will use it as a protest vote to teach their governors a big lesson for
betraying their own trust and confidence reposed in them during the last primary
elections," he said.

Abba says Mr. Buhari is well positioned to win a majority of northern states.

"He is already far ahead of everybody, including President Jonathan in northern


Nigeria," said Abba. "So 15 of the 19 northern state are already in Buhari's hands as far
as the followers are concerned, as far as the citizens are concerned, and as far as the
voters are concerned."

Political science professor Ozoemene believes the preponderance of northern


candidates will split the northern vote and weaken Mr. Buhari's chances.

"He is a northern leader who is banking on the support of the entire north," he said.
"But for me the north is now fragmented. There used to be a time when it was one
north, one people, one destiny. Today the scenario has changed."

Among the challengers for the northern vote is the Action Congress of Nigeria
candidate, former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu. Ribadu supporter Babafe Ojudu
says the party's consensus shows it has reach beyond the north.

"It shows the spirit that brought all of us together it shows that in our party we can talk
to one another we can reason with one another we can compromise with one another
and reach a consensus that's the beauty of democracy, that's the beauty of ACN party,"
said Ojudu.
Ribadu supporter Yomi Adedogu says the ruling party is mistaken if it believes it is the
only party with national appeal.

"Jonathan has won his party ticket," he said. "Ribadu has won my party ticket. And I
can assure you that we are the only party any party can not beat in this country."

If no candidate wins 24 of Nigeria's 36 states in the April 9th vote, there will be a
second-round run off between the top two finishers one week later.
------------------
South Africa: Aid agency to be launched (IRIN)

JOHANNESBURG - South Africa will launch its own development aid agency in 2011
in a move likely to boost the country’s status as an emerging economic power and
champion of the African continent.

The South African Development Partnership Agency is expected to become operational


before mid-2011 and will work with other donor agencies to coordinate development
programmes, mainly on the continent.

Although the government is hoping for contributions from the private sector, most of
the funding will come from public money, said Dr Ayanda Ntsaluba, Director-General
of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation.

"South Africa is in a unique position - we're recipients of development assistance, and


we're anxious that that status be preserved. At the same time ... we're in the African
continent and in that context we occupy a relatively privileged position," Ntsaluba told
IRIN.

Post-conflict reconstruction

Since 2001 the South African government has channelled its aid contributions through
the African Renaissance Fund (ARF), which is administered by the department. Much
of the assistance provided by the ARF has focused on conflict resolution and
peacekeeping in various countries, including Mali, Zimbabwe, Burundi and the
Democratic Republic of Congo.

"What became clear as we moved on is that we need to look beyond conflict resolution
into largely post-conflict reconstruction, and that begins to involve many other
departments and arms of state," Ntsaluba said.

Although the mandate for the new agency was still in draft form, he said South Africa
would continue providing assistance to countries recovering from conflict.
The Democratic Alliance, South Africa's opposition party, has criticised the ARF for
supporting "rogue" states and failing to monitor how its funding was being spent.

It's important for us as a country to start to have a sense of responsibility, and giving
and not only receiving as we have for many years
Ntsaluba responded that countries emerging from conflict often required the most
assistance. "There will still be residual elements in those countries that triggered the
conflict in the first place, but if we waited until it was all perfect then we'd be of no use
to those countries."

He conceded that the tracking of ARF funds had not been optimal, partly because the
responsibility for administering projects had been spread across several departments.
The new agency would be set up as a separate institution, with the administrative
capacity to track and oversee all the programmes it funded.

Not just altruism

Ivor Jenkins, co-director of the non-profit South African-based Institute for Democracy
in Africa (IDASA), said his organization had been lobbying for the creation of an aid
agency, so as to provide a more appropriate framework for South Africa's current ad
hoc interventions on the continent.

"We think it is long needed and required for South Africa because we are the biggest
economic bloc on the continent and we have started to do quite a bit of aid support to
different countries," he told IRIN.

"I do think it's important for us as a country to start to have a sense of responsibility,
and giving and not only receiving as we have for many years," he said. Besides its
humanitarian agenda, the agency would likely also serve as an expression of South
Africa's foreign policy agenda.

Ntsaluba confirmed that the decision to set up an aid agency was "not only a reflection
of altruistic motives, but of how to advance South Africa's own interests".

South Africa was recently invited to join the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group of
major emerging markets. Jonathan Glennie, a research fellow of the Centre for Aid and
Public Expenditure at the UK-based Overseas Development Institute, commented that
other developing countries, such as India, China and Brazil, seeking to raise their
international profile and strengthen political and trade ties, had also set up aid agencies
in recent years.

"Aid is not just about reducing poverty, it's a very strategic investment," he said. "To
become a big player, you need your own aid programme."
Ntsaluba said the government had consulted a number of Western development
agencies on the best approach to managing aid programmes.

Glennie noted that the South African government could pre-empt concerns about
corruption and mismanagement of funding on the African continent by creating "the
most transparent aid agency in history".
------------------
UN News Service Africa Briefs
Full Articles on UN Website

Concerned at ongoing violence, Ban urges return to rule of law in Tunisia


17 January – Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today voiced his concern about the
continued violence and the resulting loss of lives in Tunisia, urging dialogue among all
sides to resolve differences peacefully and to restore stability to the country.

Partnership enables UN to support police training in Somalia


17 January – The United Nations envoy for Somalia today inaugurated a programme
through which some 500 Somali police recruits will be trained in neighbouring Djibouti
with funding provided by Japan as part of international efforts to strengthen the
capacity of the Somali interim authorities to improve security.

UN panel on Sudan referendum satisfied with polling, commends organizers


16 January – The United Nations panel tasked with monitoring the referendum on the
future status of Southern Sudan today welcomed yesterday's conclusion of polling,
saying the process was well organized and enabled the people of the region to express
their will freely.

UN chief welcomes end of polling in Southern Sudan's referendum on self-


determination
15 January – Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today welcomed the end of the polling
period for the referendum on the self-determination of Southern Sudan, and
congratulated the people for their patience and peaceful determination to cast their
ballots, which characterized voting over the past week.

UN, African officials call on Niger to hold free and fair elections
14 January – Members of a joint United Nations-African delegation concluded their
two-day visit to Niger today by calling for the holding of free and fair legislative and
presidential elections later this month.

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