UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2015-16745 Doc No.

C06244336 Date: 06/06/2017

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BEDA02 111117Z /38
O 111056Z JAN 93
FM USMISSION GENEVA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9090
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ZAGREB IMMEDIATE
SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE REVIEW AUTHORITY: Frank Perez,
USIA WASHDC 8774 Senior Reviewer
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TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, UN, EEC, BK, SR, HV
SUBJECT: CGY001: PROSPECTS FOR BOSNIAN PRESIDENT
IZETBEGOVIC SIGNING OFF ON VANCE/OWEN PLAN

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY. BOSNIAN PRESIDENT IZETBEGOVIC WILL

PROBABLY NOT RPT NOT SIGN THE VANCE/OWEN PLAN FOR A
FUTURE BOSNIA AS THE PLAN NOW STANDS IN GENEVA. ON THE
THEORETICAL SIDE, THE PRESIDENT MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE
SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE PRINCIPLES FROM WHICH THE PLAN
DERIVES AND BELIEVES THAT APPROVING THE ETHNIC DIVISION
OF THE STATE WOULD BE A PRECURSOR TO ITS PARTITION AND
DISMEMBERMENT. ON THE PRACTICAL SIDE, IZETBEGOVIC'S
DOMESTIC BOSNIAN CONSTITUENCY MIGHT VERY WELL RE-ASSESS
ITS SUPPORT FOR HIS GOVERNMENT IF HE SIGNED OFF ON THE
PLAN. THE PRESIDENT IS ALSO LOOKING AHEAD TO DATES ON

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THE CALENDAR THAT, HE BELIEVES, MAY HOLD SPECIAL

SIGNIFICANCE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN BOSNIA,
INCLUDING THE JANUARY 20 CHANGE IN ADMINISTRATIONS IN
THE U.S. END SUMMARY.

3. THE PROSPECTS FOR BOSNIAN PRESIDENT ALIJA

IZETBEGOVIC SIGNING THE PACKET OF DOCUMENTS DEVELOPED BY
VANCE AND OWEN IN GENEVA ON A FUTURE BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA
ARE NOT GOOD. IN THE DAYS SINCE HIS ORIGINAL DECISION
NOT TO SIGN (THE FIRST SESSION OF TALKS, JANUARY 2-4),
THE PRESIDENT'S RESISTANCE SEEMS TO HAVE STIFFENED. HIS
TRIP TO THE U.S. (JANUARY 6-8) MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
SOMEWHAT TO THAT STANCE, BUT WE BELIEVE HE WOULD HAVE IN
ANY CASE OVER THIS PERIOD BECOME INCREASINGLY CONVINCED
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OF THE RIGHTNESS OF HIS DECISION.

4. PRESIDENT IZETBEGOVIC IS IN A DILEMMA. IF HE SIGNS

THE VANCE/OWEN PLAN, HE TAKES ADVANTAGE OF A HISTORIC
OPPORTUNITY TO ISOLATE THE SERBS IN A LONE OPPOSITION.
THIS WOULD FACILITATE ANY FURTHER ACTIONS THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MIGHT TAKE AND CLEARLY IDENTIFY
THE SPOILERS OF THE TALKS. IF HE DOES NOT SIGN, EVEN
THOUGH HE BELIEVES HE HAS GOOD POLITICAL AND PRINCIPLED
REASONS FOR THIS (AS OUTLINED BELOW), HE FORFEITS THIS
OPPORTUNITY, GIVES THE SERBS MORE BREATHING ROOM AND,
POSSIBLY, WILL ATTRACT THE BLAME FOR THE EVENTUAL
SCUTTLING OF THE TALKS. BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT
IZETBEGOVIC HAS ABANDONED HIS DEEP-SEATED RESERVATIONS
ABOUT THE GENEVA PROCESS AND THE MAP DERIVED FROM IT IN
ORDER TO ADOPT A SHORT-TERM SERB-ISOLATING TACTICAL
POLICY.

5. VANCE/OWEN, IN THEIR RUSH TO ATTAIN A SETTLEMENT,

HAVE FOCUSED ON IZETBEGOVIC AS AN EASIER TARGET FOR
THEIR PRESSURE THAN THE INTRANSIGENT SERBS, ON WHOM THEY
BELIEVE THEY HAVE FAR LESS LEVERAGE. IT IS IN THIS
CONTEXT THAT ONE MUST PONDER THEIR OVER-REACTION TO
IZETBEGOVIC'S VISIT TO THE U.S. (GENEVA 031 AND 058).
THEY WANTED THE WORLD TO PRESSURE "THE MUSLIMS," NOT
POUR ADULATION AND ADMIRATION ON A BELEAGUERED BOSNIAN
GOVERNMENT.

6. THE JANUARY 8 ASSASSINATION IN SARAJEVO OF THE

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OF BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA WILL ALSO
NOW HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PRESIDENTS DISPOSITION TOWARD
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THE GENEVA PROCESS AND CERTAINLY TOWARD THE OTHER
PARTIES TO THE NEGOTIATIONS. WE FIND IT SIGNIFICANT
THAT IZETBEGOVIC DID NOT REVERT TO HIS PRE-JANUARY
POSITION OF NOT SITTING AT THE SAME NEGOTIATING TABLE
WITH KARADZIC. HAD HE DONE SO, IT WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN A
FATAL BLOW TO NEGOTIATIONS, BUT WOULD HAVE PRESENTED A
SERIOUS OBSTACLE TO FORWARD PROGRESS. IZETBEGOVIC CAN
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED TO STIFFEN HIS RESOLVE IN
OBTAINING BOSNIAN SERB ACQUIESCENCE TO THE EXISTENCE OF
A SINGLE BOSNIAN STATE AS A PRE-CONDITION TO FURTHER
NEGOTIATIONS IN GENEVA.

7. EVEN WITHOUT THE ASSASSINATION, WE WOULD NOT HAVE

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PRS-01 P-01 SDEL-00 SIL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00
SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 RPE-00 /101W
8EDA1C 111118Z /38
O 111056Z JAN 93
FM USMISSION GENEVA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9091
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ZAGREB IMMEDIATE
SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
USIA WASHDC 8775
EURPO COLLECTIVE

CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 02 OF 03 GENEVA 00222

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UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2015-16745 Doc No. C06244336 Date: 06/06/2017
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TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, UN, EEC, BK, SR, HV
SUBJECT: CGY001: PROSPECTS FOR BOSNIAN PRESIDENT
PLACED MUCH MONEY ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IZETBEGOVIC
SIGNING THE VANCE/OWEN PLAN. HIS ALREADY NARROWED
DOMESTIC BASE WOULD DWINDLE EVEN FURTHER IF HE HAD TO
EXPLAIN TO HIS CONSTITUENTS THAT HE HAD SIGNED OFF ON AN
ETHNIC-BASED DIVISION OF THE STATE. WE HAVE REPORTED
PREVIOUSLY THAT IZETBEGOVIC'S DECISION -- UNDER STRONG
PRESSURE FROM VANCE/OWEN AND THE CROATS -- TO NEGOTIATE
DIRECTLY WITH KARADZIC ALREADY TOOK A CONSIDERABLE
POLITICAL TOLL ON THE PRESIDENT BACK IN SARAJEVO.

8. BESIDES ALL THESE CONSIDERATIONS, IZETBEGOVIC IS

LOOKING AT SEVERAL DATES ON THE CALENDAR. FIRST AND
FOREMOST, HE IS AWAITING THE JANUARY 20 CHANGE OF
ADMINISTRATIONS IN THE U.S. BY NOW, THE PRESIDENT AND
THE BOSNIAN PEOPLE REALIZE THAT MASSIVE WESTERN MILITARY
INTERVENTION IS NOT IN THE CARDS. BUT HE IS ALSO AWARE
OF MEDIA SPECULATION ABOUT POSSIBLE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION INITIATIVES ON BOSNIA. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE PRESIDENT CANNOT BE FAULTED FOR
ADOPTING A WAIT-AND-SEE POLICY. EVEN IF THE PRESIDENT
UNDERSTANDS THE TRADITION OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN
ADMINISTRATIONS IN THE U.S., AND WE ARE NOT CERTAIN THAT
HE DOES, THE BOSNIAN MAN-IN-THE-STREET ALMOST CERTAINLY
DOES NOT, AND WOULD NEVER FORGIVE THE BOSNIAN STATE
DELEGATION FOR SIGNING AN AGREEMENT "WHEN THEY COULD
HAVE WAITED JUST A FEW DAYS AND GOTTEN A BETTER DEAL
FROM CLINTON." AS UNSOPHISTICATED AS THAT VIEW MAY SEEM
TO US, IT IS ONE THAT MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY THE
BOSNIAN PRESIDENT.
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9. OTHER DATES ON THE CALENDAR WITH IMPACT ON THE

PROCESS FOR IZETBEGOVIC INCLUDE THE OIC DECLARATION,
ADOPTED DECEMBER 2 IN JEDDAH, THAT ON JANUARY 15
PROGRESS ON BOSNIA WOULD BE DISCUSSED AND NEW OIC
INITIATIVES ADOPTED ACCORDINGLY. IT IS FOR THIS REASON,
OF COURSE, THAT THE PRESIDENT IS ATTENDING ONE DAY OF AN

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OIC MINI-SUMMIT IN DAKAR ON JANUARY 11, INTERRUPTING HIS

OWN ATTENDANCE AT THE GENEVA TALKS ON BOSNIA. AGAIN, IT
IS NOT THAT THE BOSNIANS EXPECT TO BE "RESCUED" BY THE
MUSLIM STATES. RATHER, THEY BELIEVE THAT FURTHER
INITIATIVES BY THE OIC IN SUPPORT OF BOSNIA WILL
CONTRIBUTE POSITIVELY TO THE DEBATE IN THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY ABOUT NEXT STEPS IN THE REGION.

10. IZETBEGOVIC IS ALSO GENERALLY AWARE OF DISCUSSIONS

IN NEW YORK ON A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION ON A NO-FLY ZONE.
HE KNOWS THAT ADOPTION OF A NEW RESOLUTION COULD BE
IMMINENT. ALTHOUGH THE MILITARY IMPACT OF ENFORCEMENT
HAS DIMINISHED OVER TIME, HE BELIEVES THAT ENFORCEMENT
-- IF IT COMES TO THAT -- WOULD HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON
THE SERBS AND WOULD STIMULATE MORALE AMONG THE BOSNIAN
RESISTANCE.

11. FINALLY, IZETBEGOVIC IS AWARE OF THE GENEVA TALKS'

OWN CALENDAR. HE KNOWS THAT THE CO-CHAIRMEN HAVE HINTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OF THEIR DESIRE TO WRAP THINGS UP SOON
IN GENEVA. HE KNOWS ALSO THAT THE NEXT STEERING
COMMITTEE MEETING -- WHICH SHOULD BE A WATERSHED EVENT
-- IS SCHEDULED FOR LATE JANUARY OR EARLY FEBRUARY.
PRESUMABLY, VANCE AND OWEN CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS
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MEETING TO PRESENT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITH A
FINAL SETTLEMENT OR WITH AN EXPLANATION ABOUT WHY ONE
COULD NOT BE ATTAINED.

12. FINAL COMMENT: IN THE END, IZETBEGOVIC WILL NOT BE

RUSHED. HIS DISSATISFACTION IS NOT ONLY WITH THE
BORDERS DRAWN ON A MAP OF HIS COUNTRY DEVELOPED IN
GENEVA. HE IS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE PRINCIPLES USED
IN DRAWING THOSE BORDERS. HE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S GENUINE COMMITMENT TO THE
EXISTENCE OF HIS STATE. AS THE DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED
LEADER OF THE LARGEST (TERRITORIALLY) SUCCESSOR STATE OF
THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT HE WILL ALLOW
HIMSELF TO BE RUSHED OR PRESSURED INTO A SIGNATURE.

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ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00

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HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 10-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00
LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02
PRS-01 P-01 SDEL-00 SIL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00
SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 RPE-00 /101W
8EDA29 111118Z /38
O 111056Z JAN 93
FM USMISSION GENEVA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9092
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ZAGREB IMMEDIATE
SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
USIA WASHDC 8776
EURPO COLLECTIVE

CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 03 OF 03 GENEVA 00222

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR, 10 AND RP

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TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, UN, EEC, BK, SR, HV
SUBJECT: CGY001: PROSPECTS FOR BOSNIAN PRESIDENT
13. WE EXPECT IZETBEGOVIC NOT TO SIGN THE VANCE/OWEN
PLAN WHEN THE GENEVA TALKS RECONVENE JANUARY 10. WE
EXPECT THAT HE WILL INTRODUCE PROPOSED REVISIONS TO THE
PLAN, PERHAPS MORE THAN JUST TO THE MAP. WE EXPECT HIM
TO RETURN TO THE GENEVA TALKS FROM THE OIC MINI-SUMMIT
IN DAKAR AND CONTINUE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE TALKS, IN
SPITE OF DOMESTIC PRESSURES PARTICULARLY AFTER THE
AFORE-MENTIONED ASSASSINATION. BUT, IN THE END, WE DO
NOT EXPECT THE NEXT SESSION OF GENEVA TO PRODUCE A
SETTLEMENT THAT COULD BE SIGNED BY A PRESIDENT OF THE
BOSNIAN PEOPLES.

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RODGERS

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