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Ecological Modelling 340 (2016) 17–27
Ecological Modelling
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The accumulation of naturally-derived taste taint chemicals, geosmin (GSM) and 2-methylisoborneol
Received 18 March 2016 (MIB), impair the flavour of Recirculating Aquaculture System (RAS) farmed-fish. Quantification and con-
Received in revised form 22 August 2016 trol of these by analytical or sensory means are not presently practical for RAS farmers. To forecast taste
Accepted 30 August 2016
taint in RAS, a time-dependent model was synthesised (Ecological Modelling 291 (2014) 242–249). Here
we report for the first time an extensive two-year validation study of this model with commercial RAS
Chemical compounds studied in this article:
farmed barramundi (Lates calcarifer) in which fingerlings (∼0.01 kg) were grown to harvest (∼0.85 kg) at
(−)-Geosmin (PubChem CID: 29746)
245 days. The concentration of GSM and MIB in the growth water and fish-flesh was determined (weekly)
(+)-Geosmin (PubChem CID: 15559490)
2-Methylisoborneol (PubChem CID: 16913)
using Headspace Solid-Phase Micro-Extraction, followed by Gas Chromatography Mass-Spectroscopy
(and microwave-mediated distillation). The concentration of both taint chemicals in the RAS growth
Keywords: water was controlled using continuous dosing of hydrogen peroxide (2.5 mg L−1 ) as a benign biocide. A
2-Methylisoborneol (MIB) special dosing apparatus was developed for this purpose. Results showed, generally, very good agree-
Geosmin (GSM) ment between observed and predicted taint values in the range 0–2 g kg−1 , and especially below the
Barramundi (Lates calcarifer)
important consumer rejection threshold (<∼0.7 g kg−1 ). A minor anomaly was a general over-prediction
Recirculating aquaculture system (RAS)
of chemical in about a half of the N = 706 simulations in the range 0–12 g kg−1 . Predictions were con-
Experimental studies
Model validation servative therefore i.e. on the ‘safe’ side. This is attributed, largely, to dissimilar (exponential) growth
constant () for smaller and larger fish, and the fact that the RAS environment is oscillatory. Findings
highlight that the work could be meaningfully applied to RAS systems to develop protocols to limit taste
taint in harvested fish. Significantly, these results are the first for RAS farmed-fish covering an entire
production cycle from fingerlings to harvest. The work will be of immediate benefit and interest to RAS
farmers, selling agents and researchers.
Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.017
0304-3800/Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
18 P.I. Hathurusingha, K.R. Davey / Ecological Modelling 340 (2016) 17–27
used to predict taste taint in fish-flesh with time and assist farmers
Nomenclature to harvest fish with taste taint lower than the rejection threshold.
This has led to a number of modelling approaches. Until recently
a Taint elimination coefficient, day−1 (5) however these models were based on assumptions of steady-state.
b taint accumulation coefficient, g kg−1 day−1 (4) Because there was no evidence to show that net chemical
COX concentration of dissolved oxygen, mg L−1 (12) exchange was in fact zero across the RAS water phase and fish body,
CW Taint concentration (as GSM or MIB) in water, g L−1 Hathurusingha and Davey (2014) synthesised a quantitative model
(2) that predicted the time-dependent concentration of taste taint
dy
dt
Rate of change of taint in fish-flesh, g kg−1 day−1 chemicals as GSM and MIB in RAS fish-flesh. The model was based
(1) on conservation of mass and energy, and thermodynamic pro-
e Lipid mass ratio, dimensionless fraction (16) cesses established in bio-chemical engineering. Chemical uptake
EW Chemical uptake efficiency across the gill, dimen- and elimination routes into and from the fish were integrated. The
sionless fraction (9) model was illustrated with independent (but fragmented) litera-
GSM Geosmin ture data for farmed barramundi
GV Gill ventilation rate, l day −1 (9) (n ≥ 14). The applicability of a generalized form of the
k1 Taint accumulation through gills, l kg−1 day−1 (2) model to other aquaculture species, in particular rainbow trout
k2 Taint elimination through gills, day−1 (2) (Oncorhynchus mykiss), was demonstrated with independent data
kg Growth dilution plus metabolic transformation, (n ≥ 15) (Davey and Hathurusingha, 2014; Hathurusingha and
day−1 (2) Davey, 2013).
kG Rate constant for growth dilution, day−1 (17) There has been however no detailed study reported (or as far as
km Rate constant for metabolic transformation, day−1 can be determined even undertaken) to analyse GSM and MIB in
(17) RAS growth water and accumulated concentrations in fish-flesh of
KOW Octanol- water partition coefficient, dimensionless barramundi, especially covering an entire commercial production
(10) cycle (245 days). This gap emphasized the need for an extensive
mf Mass of the fish at t, kg (2) and dedicated sampling of the RAS growth water and fish-flesh for
MIB 2-methylisoborneol the model validation.
n Number of data
N Number of all data
QW Rate of chemical transport in the aqueous phase, 1.1. This study
l day−1 (13)
Here, the model of Hathurusingha and Davey (2014) is exper-
QL Rate of chemical transport in the lipid phase, l day−1
imentally tested against extensive and original data obtained
(13)
from commercial-scale RAS farmed barramundi from fingerlings
RAS Recirculating aquaculture system
(∼0.01 kg) to harvested fish (∼0.85 kg) for the first time.
R2 Correlation coefficient
Both GSM and MIB in growth water and barramundi fish-flesh
T temperature, ◦ C (12)
were sampled weekly. A number of experimental and analytical
t Growth time, day (1)
protocols were expressly adapted for this purpose. The concentra-
VL Lipid mass (weight), kg (13)
tion of taint chemicals in the RAS growth water was controlled
y Taint (as GSM or MIB) concentration, g kg−1 (1)
using continuous dosing of hydrogen peroxide (2.5 mg L−1 ) as a
benign biocide via a specially-developed apparatus. This consisted
Greek symbols
of a controller, H2 O2 sensor (ProMinent Fluid Controls Pty Ltd,
ˇ Pre-exponential growth constant, kg (3)
Germany) and a metering pump (Global Pumps Pty Ltd, Australia).
Exponential growth constant, day−1 (3)
It was operated automatically in an on/off mode in which dosing of
H2 O2 to the growth water was cut off when the bulk water residual
concentration reached a set-point. Dosing resumed when the con-
this limiting value, the fish-flesh will consequently become unac- centration dropped below the set-point. The apparatus and its safe
ceptably tainted. and Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are described in detail
A major difficulty is quantification of GSM and MIB taste in Hathurusingha (2015). Further, this study is the first full-scale
taint chemicals in RAS water and fish-flesh because of the costs experimental investigation of the accumulation of GSM and MIB
involved, experimental time and the few research institutes that in any RAS fish species. Rigorous analyses of observed against pre-
have the necessary facilities (G. Vandenberg, Faculté des sciences dicted taste taint data are presented. Results are discussed with a
de l’agriculture et de l’alimentation, Université Laval, pers. comm.). view to development of RAS growth protocols to limit GSM and MIB
As an alternative, sensory (taste and smell) assessments have been in the flesh of fish.
adopted to determine whether a fish is tainted beyond a threshold Findings will be of immediate benefit and interest to RAS farm-
(Grimm et al., 2004; Percival et al., 2008). This approach however is ers, selling agents and researchers.
based on human perception and requires ‘experts’ to do this accu-
rately. It is therefore subjective, and; it is questionable whether the
2. Materials and methods
experts are representative of the consumer population (Howgate,
2004). Moreover, it is suggested, successive testing of MIB, for 2.1. Model for taste taint
example, influences the taste adaptation in experts that can lead
to a reduction in sensitivity to taste taint (Brett and Johnsen, 1996; The transient model for chemical taste taint accumulation of
Johnsen and Brett, 1996). Both approaches therefore are not practi- Hathurusingha and Davey (2014) can be summarised as follows:
cal or feasible for use by farmers and farming management during The governing route for taste taint uptake into the fish-flesh
RAS fish growth. is assumed to be the gills, and elimination, from the gills,
Predictive models, widely used in chemical and bio-chemical bio-transformation and fish growth dilution. The optimum growth-
engineering however, provide a quantitative basis for evaluating temperature of the RAS water for barramundi is considered to be
toxicology and risk assessments in fish. An adequate model could be 28 ◦ C.
P.I. Hathurusingha, K.R. Davey / Ecological Modelling 340 (2016) 17–27 19
The uptake of taint (y) in the fish-flesh with time (t) was given where T = RAS growth water temperature (◦ C).
by The assumption of oxygen saturated RAS growth water was
justified by Hathurusingha and Davey (2014) because, in conjunc-
dy
= uptake rate − elimination rate (1) tion with temperature control, aerator-mixers are continuously
dt
employed to ensure optimum fish growth (Southern Barramundi
where all notation used throughout is carefully defined in the Farmer’s Association, Clarendon, Australia, pers. comm.).
Nomenclature. The chemical elimination rate from the fish gills (k2 ) was corre-
Substitution for the uptake of taint chemical as a rate constant lated with the chemical transport rate in aqueous and lipid phases
(k1 , L kg−1 day−1 ), fish mass (mf , kg) and taint concentration in the of the fish, lipid content of the fish and octanol water partition coef-
RAS water (CW ) – together with elimination through the gills (k2 , ficient of the taint chemical based on the work of (Gobas, 1993)
day−1 ) and bio-transformation and growth dilution (kg , day−1 ) gave as
dy 1 VL VL
= k1 mf CW − (k2 + kg )y (2) =( )KOW + ( ) (13)
dt k2 QW QL
where ( dy
dt
) was the rate of change of taint in the fish-flesh where QW is rate of chemical transport in the aqueous phase
(g kg−1 day−1 ). (L day−1 ), QL is the rate of chemical transport in the lipid phase
The mass of fish (mf ) grown for harvest was known to be a (L day−1 ) and VL is lipid weight (mass). The relationship derived by
function of growth-time in RAS. Published growth data as mass of Gobas and Mackay (1987) based on experimental data between QW
fish (kg) vs growth time (day) was highly exponentially correlated and mf was
(Glenn et al., 2007) and fish mass was given by QW = 88.3mf 0.6(±0.2) (14)
mf = ˇexpt (3) The chemical transport rate in the aqueous phase compared
Two constants were introduced such that for uptake with the lipid phase reported by Gobas and Mackay (1987) was
used i.e.
b = ˇk1 CW (4)
QL = 0.01QW (15)
and for elimination
Lipid mass of the fish was correlated to the lipid mass ratio (e)
a = (k2 + kg ) (5) (dimensionless) and conveniently expressed as
Substitution for b and a into Eq. (2) and rearranging gave VL = emf (16)
dy
+ ay = bexpt (6) The rate constant for combined metabolic transformation of the
dt taint chemical and growth dilution rate of the taint chemical was
Eq. (6) was integrated by parts to give given by
bexpt b kg = (kG + km ) (17)
y= − (7)
(a + ) (a + )expat
The rate constant for growth dilution was computed using the
Eq. (7) was rearranged to give a predictive model for taint chem- equation of Thomann et al. (1992)
ical in the fish-flesh
kG = 0.00251mf −0.2 (18)
b
y=( ) expt − exp−at (8)
a+ A value of rate constant for metabolic transformation of the
taint chemical km = 0.00063 day−1 was taken from the refereed lit-
The derived model (Eq. (8)) is seen to be the difference of two
erature to cover a wide range of fish species. A typical growth
exponential terms with time in RAS growth tanks, namely, uptake
curve was presented by Hathurusingha and Davey (2014) for bar-
and elimination of taste taint chemical(s).
ramundi (Lates calcarifer) based on independent data (n = 9) (Glenn
Based on the work of Arnot and Gobas (2004) the gill uptake
et al., 2007) from which it was found Eq. (3) gave a very good fit
rate constant (k1 ) was expressed as
(R2 = 0.96) (Snedecor and Cochran, 1989) with ˇ = 0.0519 kg and
EW GV = 0.0133 day−1 .
k1 = (9)
mf Eqs. (1) through (18) plus the values for km , ˇ and define the
where EW was the gill chemical uptake efficiency (dimensionless model of Hathurusingha and Davey (2014) for chemical taste taint
fraction) and GV was the gill ventilation rate (L day−1 ). The chemical accumulation as GSM and MIB in RAS barramundi. An advantage of
uptake efficiency was assumed based on Gobas (1998) to be a func- the model was that it could be conveniently set-up and solved in
tion of an octanol-water partition coefficient (KOW ) of the chemical standard spread sheeting tools.
of interest that was expressed through the following relationship
−1
2.2. Commercial site
EW = (1.85 + 155/KOW ) (10)
The relationship between gill ventilation rate and oxygen con- The experimental study was carried out at Barra Fresh Farm,
sumption rate of the fish was based on empirical data reported by Gawler, Australia. The commercial farm has four (4) separate rect-
Arnot and Gobas (2004) angular RAS growth-tanks in a large, insulated indoor shed. Each,
contained fresh water with a volume of 120,000 L and each was
1400mf 0.65 operated in a fully closed-loop system – with some water replen-
GV = (11)
COX ished periodically to replace evaporation losses and to remove
where COX was the concentration of dissolved oxygen (mg L−1 ). This fish-waste.
was considered as a function of temperature and computed from Each of the four separate growth-tanks (1, 2, 3 and 4) was parti-
the equation given by Neely (1979) tioned into four (4) rectangular sub-tanks (30,000 L) with nets for
convenient managing, rearing and stocking fish of different age-
COX = 14.45 − 0.413T + 0.00556T 2 (12) groups. The sub-tanks of each of the growth-tanks are identified as
20 P.I. Hathurusingha, K.R. Davey / Ecological Modelling 340 (2016) 17–27
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
Mass (kg)
0.6 0.6
Mass (kg)
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 0.0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
Day
Day
Fig. 1. Fit of growth data determined for barramundi from the treated tank (2B)
at measured water temperature ∼27 ◦ C (mf = 0.0226e0.0169t , R2 = 0.92). Error bars Fig. 2. Fit of growth data determined for barramundi from the control tank (4D)
indicate standard deviation on 20 fish. at measured water temperature ∼ 27 ◦ C (mf = 0.0229e.00161t , R2 = 0.98). Error bars
indicate standard deviation on 20 fish.
0.045
0.040
0.035
Concentration (µg L-1)
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Week
Fig. 3. Variation of GSM concentration (CW ) in RAS growth water in treated (2B) ( ) and control (4D) ( ) tanks over a 35 week period. Results presented are the average
of (n = 3) replicates. Error bars indicate standard deviation on the triplicates. The horizontal dashed-line indicates the limiting concentration for GSM (0.015 g L−1 ) in RAS
growth water.
0.18
0.16
0.14
Concentration (µg L-1)
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Week
Fig. 4. Variation of MIB concentration (CW ) in RAS growth water in treated (2B) ( ) and control (4D) ( ) tank over a 35 week period. Results presented are the average
of (n = 3) replicates. Error bars indicate standard deviation on the triplicates. The horizontal dashed-line indicates the limiting concentration for MIB (0.018 g L−1 ).
to have varied from 3.95 to 6.02 mg L−1 and in the control tank from Table 2
Example model simulation showing inputs, calculations and output for predicted
4.09 to 5.75 mg L−1 .
taste taint (y) as both GSM and MIB in barramundi fish-flesh from an average fish
The growth water temperature of the treated tank varied from (0.435 kg) from the commercial-scale RAS studies.
26.7 to 28.7 ◦ C and that in the control from 26.3 to 29.1 ◦ C.
Parameter and units Taint taste as
In summary, the measured average dissolved oxygen concen-
tration in the treated and control tanks over the experimental GSM MIB
period was 5.00 and 4.90 mg L−1 , respectively. The measured aver- Row
age growth water temperature of both tanks was 27 ◦ C, for the Inputs
commercial growth of 35 weeks. 1 t day 169 169
2 kOW dimensionless 3.57 3.31
3 km day−1 0.00063 0.00063
4. Discussion 4 CW g L−1 0.0121 0.0548
◦
5 T C 27 27
4.1. Estimating taint parameters 6 e dimensionless 0.1 0.1
Calculations
Substitution of the growth constants found for the barramundi 7 COX mg L−1 5.04 5.04
8 GV L day−1 161.70 (Eq. (11)) 161.70 (Eq. (11))
(Figs. 1 and 2) into Eq. (3) gives for fish in the treated (2B) tank
9 EW dimensionless 0.528 (Eq. (10)) 0.519 (Eq. (10))
10 k1 L kg−1 day−1 196.50 (Eq. (9)) 193.00 (Eq. (9))
mf = 0.0226exp0.0169t (19)
11 QW day−1 53.58 (Eq. (14)) 53.58 (Eq. (14))
12 QL day−1 0.53 (Eq. (15)) 0.53 (Eq. (15))
and for fish in the control (4D) tank
13 VL kg 0.026 (Eq. (16)) 0.026 (Eq. (16))
14 k2 day−1 0.538 (Eq. (13)) 0.959 (Eq. (13))
mf = 0.0229exp0.0161t (20)
15 kG day−1 0.0029 (Eq. (18)) 0.0029 (Eq. (18))
16 kg day−1 0.0036 (Eq. (17)) 0.0036 (Eq. (17))
It is concluded that these are not meaningfully different. The
17 mf kg 0.435 (Eq. (19)) 0.435 (Eq. (19))
implication, importantly, is that treatment of the RAS water with 18 a day−1 0.5417 (Eq. (5)) 0.9621 (Eq. (5))
hydrogen peroxide at 2.5 mg L−1 did not significantly influence typ- 19 b g kg−1 day−1 0.0544 (Eq. (4)) 0.2422 (Eq. (4))
ical commercial-growth of the fish. 20 γ dimensionless 0.0161 (Eq. (19)) 0.0161 (Eq. (19))
The bulk temperature of the growth water over the growth Output
period was 27 ± 2 ◦ C. This value indicates that the measures taken 21 y g kg−1 1.3876 (Eq. (8)) 3.0057 (Eq. (8))
to regulate the temperature of the commercial RAS growth water
were successful. The experimental temperature values used for the
model validation are therefore highly appropriate.
In the model synthesis, the dissolved oxygen concentration of
the RAS growth water was assumed at 7.24 mg L−1 at 28 ◦ C. This
was based on the assumption of saturated conditions at the RAS
water bulk temperature and the equation of Neely (1979).
However, experimental data collected daily in the commercial-
scale trials showed that dissolved oxygen (COX ) concentration
varied over time. Therefore, in the model validation, daily experi-
mental values averaged weekly (Table 1) were used to compute gill
ventilation rates, GV (Eq. (11)).
The chemical uptake efficiencies (EW ) for GSM = 0.528 and
MIB = 0.519 remain constant and independent of RAS (see Eq. (10))
because these depend only on the octanol-water partition coef-
ficient (KOW ). The uptake rate constant (k1 ) was calculated by
substituting for EW, GV and mf values into Eq. (9).
Eqs.(13)–(16) were used sequentially to compute k2 . Eq. (18)
was used to compute the input kG . Similarly, Eq. (17) was used to
calculate kg .
The model was set-up as a Microsoft ExcelTM spread sheet.
Model input parameters CW for GSM and MIB were taken from the
weekly growth water analyses over the 35 week period. Calculated
model inputs derived from the experimental data k1 , k2 , kg were
fed to the spread sheet together with growth time (t).
4.2. Example model validation Fig. 6. Predicted vs observed taste taint (y) as GSM in fish-flesh from RAS ‘treated’
(2B) tank. Results are presented for n = 167 data from 121 fish. The number of fish
An overall example simulation of the new model with the exper- harvested in the 30,000 L was 3326. The box (LL) indicates those data below the
consumer rejection threshold for GSM (0.74 g kg−1 ).
imentally determined data from the commercial-scale RAS studies
with barramundi is conveniently summarised as Table 2.
An (average) fish (0.435 kg) from the commercial-scale control
(4D) tank is used to demonstrate the model. The input parameters columns 4 and 5 for GSM and MIB. This tabulated presentation pro-
t, kOW , km , CW , T and e are shown in rows 1–6 of Table 2. The calcu- vides a convenient (and prudent) check on the consistency of units
lated parameters COX , GV , EW , k1 , QW , QL , VL , k2 , kG , kg , mf , a, b and γ used in the model.
are shown in rows 7–20. Presented this way the model can be read A comparison between model simulations for taste taint as GSM
logically down columns 4 and 5, respectively, for GSM and MIB. The and experimentally determined data is presented in Figs. 6 and 7,
output as predicted level of taint, y, is shown in row 21, respectively respectively for fish from the treated (2B) and control (4D) RAS
24 P.I. Hathurusingha, K.R. Davey / Ecological Modelling 340 (2016) 17–27
Fig. 7. Predicted vs observed taste taint (y) as GSM in fish-flesh from RAS ‘control’ Fig. 9. Predicted vs observed taste taint (y) as MIB in fish-flesh from RAS ‘con-
(4D) tank. Results are presented for n = 186 data from 145 fish. The number of fish trol’ (4D) tank. Results are presented for n = 186 data from 145 fish. The number
harvested in the 30,000 L was 3318. The box (LL) indicates those data below the of fish harvested in 30,000 L was 3318. The box (LL) indicates those data below the
consumer rejection threshold for GSM (0.74 g kg−1 ). consumer rejection threshold for MIB (0.7 g kg−1 ).
More than one sample were obtained and analysed from a single
fish whenever possible to improve data. Smaller fish (<0.030 kg)
generally however provided only one sample due to reduced mass.
Importantly, all experimental data that were determined are
presented in Figs. 6–9, that is, no outliers have been removed, nor
has the data been mathematically ‘smoothed’ in any way. More-
over, It is can be readily determined that the total number of
simulations used for model validation
(N) is a sum of each of all
of Figs. 6–9 to give N = 706 (i.e. n = 167 + 186 + 167 + 186). This
number is considered more than sufficient for the purpose of model
validation.
Fig. 10. Expanded area of Fig. 6 for taste taint concentration (y) (covering Fig. 12. Expanded area of Fig. 8 for taste taint concentrations (y) (covering
0–2 g kg−1 ) as GSM in fish-flesh from RAS ‘treated’ (2B) tank. Results are for n = 137 0–2 g kg−1 ) for as MIB in fish-flesh from RAS ‘treated’ (2B) tank. Results are for
data from 80 fish. The shaded area shows fish-flesh exceeding the consumer rejec- n = 111 data from 85 fish. The shaded area shows fish-flesh exceeding the consumer
tion threshold for GSM (0.74 g kg−1 ). rejection threshold for MIB (0.7 g kg−1 ).
Fig. 11. Expanded area of Fig. 7 for taste taint concentration (y) (covering Fig. 13. Expanded area of Fig. 9 for taste taint concentration (y) (covering
0–2 g kg−1 ) as GSM in fish-flesh from RAS ‘control’ (4D) tank. Results are for n = 160 0–2 g kg−1 ) as MIB in fish-flesh from RAS ‘control’ (4D) tank. Results are for n = 107
data from 121 fish. The shaded area shows fish-flesh exceeding consumer rejection data from 91 fish. The shaded area shows fish-flesh exceeding the consumer rejec-
threshold for GSM (0.74 g kg−1 ). tion threshold for MIB (0.7 g kg−1 ).
Similarly, Figs. 12 and 13 show, respectively, the predicted believed this finding augurs well for development of possible proto-
versus observed concentration of MIB for fish from the treated (2B) cols to help farmers control taste taint in fish-flesh of the harvested
and control (4D) RAS tanks. Fig. 12 summarizes MIB in fish-flesh fish.
for n = 111 data (from 85 fish) and Fig. 13 for n = 107 data (from 91 The accuracy of model predictions irrespective however of range
fish). was investigated. The data which deviated from Y = X line were
It can be seen from the data of Figs. 10 through 13 that model counted as a percentage of the total and summarised. The findings
predictions for both GSM and MIB are more or less evenly dis- are presented as Table 3.
tributed about the Y = X line. Especially, those data below the All data in Figs. 6–9, and four (4) criteria were used in the inves-
consumer rejection threshold concentration, LL of the figures. It is tigation. These criteria were those data points that: 1. fell on the
26 P.I. Hathurusingha, K.R. Davey / Ecological Modelling 340 (2016) 17–27
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