Master Thesis

The Potential of Fresnel Reflectors for Process Heat

Generation in the MENA Region
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By
Martin Haagen
submitted to

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (University of Kassel)

and Faculty of Engineering (University of Cairo) in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for M.Sc. degree in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for
the MENA Region REMENA

Kassel, February 2012

1. Corrector Prof. Dr. Klaus Vajen (University of Kassel, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering,
Department of Thermal Engineering)
2. Corrector Prof. Dr. Sayed Kaseb (University of Cairo, Faculty of Engineering
Department of Mechanical Power Engineering)
3. Corrector Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus (University of Kassel, Faculty Electrical Engineering and
Computer Sciences, Department of Telecommunications

Academic supervisor: Christoph Lauterbach

Industrial supervisor: Tobias Schwind, Christian Zahler (Industrial Solar GmbH)

Martin Haagen Matriculation: 30253827 Sprollstr. 85 70597 Stuttgart mhaagen@fastmail.fm

 Master Thesis

The Potential of Fresnel Reflectors for Process Heat

Generation in the MENA Region
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By
Martin Haagen
submitted to

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (University of Kassel)

and Faculty of Engineering (University of Cairo) in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for M.Sc. degree in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for
the MENA Region REMENA

Kassel, February 2012

Approved by the Examining Committee:

1. Corrector Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil

2. Corrector Dr. Hany Nokrashy

3. Corrector Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Academic Supervisor Christoph Lauterbach

Martin Haagen Matriculation: 30253827 Sprollstr. 85 70597 Stuttgart mhaagen@fastmail.fm

 Abstract

This study assesses the potential of generating solar heat for industrial
processes with linear Fresnel collectors in the Middle East and North
Africa to be around 460 TWh. Based on a comprehensive top-down ap-
proach Morocco and Tunisia are identified as most promising. Within
the bottom-up approach 10 companies in Morocco and 7 companies in
Tunisia were visited and their potential assessed in more detail. More-
over, the most promising industries were examined on potential benefits
and challenges. Furthermore, the major legislations and institutions of
the countries are included in the assessment. A single variable sensitivity
analysis examines the factors which influence the internal rate of return
and thermal energy costs of solar process heat systems. A reference sce-
nario shows that currently solar process heat systems with linear Fresnel
collectors are not feasible in Morocco or Tunisia. An institutional com-
parison identifies most suitable support schemes for solar process heat
systems. Based on the results the study provides recommendations for
policy makers and the private sector.
I thank my correctors, Prof. Dr. Klaus Vajen, Dr. Sayed Kaseb,
Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus and especially my academic supervisor
Christoph Lauterbach, as well as all the staff from Industrial Solar,
especially Christian Zahler and Tobias Schwind for the constant
support, helpful advice and inspiration. Without them, the thesis
could not have been completed.
Contents
1. Introduction 7
1.1. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2. Literature review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

2. Fundamentals 10
2.1. Basic solar energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2. Collection of solar energy with linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.2.1. Optical and thermal analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.2. Components of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.2.3. Specific advantages of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2.4. Cost and yields of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.3. Integration of solar heat in industrial processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.3.1. Basic concepts for integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.3.2. Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.3.3. Further effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.4. Tools for financial analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.4.1. Investment appraisal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.4.2. Further financial tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

3. Top down approach - energy situation in Middle East and North Africa 30
3.1. Energy supply and demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.2. Potential for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.3. Overview of countries and selection for bottom up assessment . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.4. Industrial heat demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.5. Solar process heat at medium temperatures in Middle East and North Africa . . 35
3.6. Suitable sectors for process heat generation at medium temperatures . . . . . . 36
3.7. Challenges for solar heat in industrial processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

4. Bottom up assessment 42
4.1. Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.1.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.1.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.1.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
4.1.4. Industry in Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5
 4.1.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Morocco . . . . . . . . . 49
4.2. Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.2.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.2.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.2.4. Industry in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.2.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . 57
4.3. Comparison of countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

5. Economic and institutional assessment of solar process heat in Middle East and
North Africa 61
5.1. Variables and sensitivity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.2. Reference scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
5.3. Institutions for solar industrial process heat in the Middle East and North Africa 67
5.3.1. Support schemes in Middle East and North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
5.3.2. Analysis of support schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

6. Summary and conclusions 71

References 74

List of Abbreviations 85

Appendix 92

A. Energy tariffs in Morocco and Tunisia 92

B. Gasgrid in Tunisia 93

C. Food companies listed at the Moroccan and Tunisian stock exchange 94

D. Exemplary calculation for reference case 95

E. Economic potentials for renewable energies in Middle East and North Africa and
further energy data 97

6
1. Introduction
Today´s society is more than ever dependant on energy. Yet, within the last decades challenges
of the current energy supply system became apparent. Global reserves of fossil fuels are on de-
cline and the strong increase of energy prices impedes social and economic development. At the
same time increasing emissions are responsible for the anthropogenic part of climate change.
Since the publication of the Stern report (Stern, 2007), also the economic dimensions of climate
change are acknowledged. Furthermore, the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels have se-
vere impacts on human health and the environment. Thus, major changes in the energy supply
system are necessary. In the last years the use of renewable energies (RE) increased. Yet, they
still play only a minor role in industrial production, although industry is responsible for around
33 % of total energy demand according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organi-
zation (UNIDO) (UNIDO, 2011). The same study also expects that the industrial production
grows by a factor of four until 2050, which highlights the crucial importance to address RE
in industry. As will be shown in Section 3.4 heat is the dominant energy form in industrial
production. Several studies (see Section 1.2) already assessed the potential of solar heat for
industrial processes (SHIP) and all found that application is far behind the potential. While
most SHIP assessments were restricted to non-concentrating solar collectors and regionally fo-
cussed on Europe this study differs in three aspects. First, it takes not only a pure technical
approach (e.g. energy characteristics) but also considers industrial and socio-economic data
which are crucial for industrial decision makers.
Second, it examines Middle East and North Africa1 (MENA), this region was so far studied only
once (Reiners, 2011). The total energy demand of MENA is small compared to other regions
but sufficiently large, and the countries similar enough, to justify a focussed examination.
Third, due to the high share of direct irradiation in MENA, as well as the continuous develop-
ment of concentrating technologies, it focuses on SHIP at higher temperatures with concentrat-
ing collectors (SHIPc ) . In respect to the technology, the focus is on linear Fresnel collectors
(LFC), under the hypothesis that they have inherent advantages for SHIPc (see Section 2.2.3).
Expanding the scope to higher temperatures allows to include more processes. Moreover, when
steam is considered in comparison to hot water, the overall potential further raises due to the
high energy needed for evaporation2 .
Thus, it is the objective to identify countries and industries within MENA which are most
1
This study covers Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. The Palestinian Territories and Israel
are not considered.
2
Energy demand to heat water from 20◦ C to 100◦ C without evaporation is around 340 kJ/kg. To evaporate
it at 100◦ C it needs an additional 2200 kJ/kg.

7
promising for SHIPc taking social, economic, industrial and institutional aspects into account.
Sometimes SHIP and SHIPc can be treated analogously, sometimes differentiation is crucial.

Social dimension
Even though the topic is mainly technical and economical it also has an important social di-
mension. First, fossil fuel combustion causes health and environmental problems which effect
human development. Moreover, with ongoing technical development and raising energy prices
RE will be the cheaper energy source in the mid-term. If a country lacks behind in this tran-
sition process (technical know how, awareness, human capacities, institutions) it will have a
competitive disadvantage in the future which impedes social and economic development.

1.1. Methodology
This section discusses the methodology applied within this study. The analytical part is com-
prised of five different approaches.
First, within the top-down approach 16 MENA countries are compared and the countries with
comparatively high potential for SHIP, whereas a variety of factors is taken into account, are
identified. Moreover, industries are compared in respect to the temperature levels applied.
Second, within the bottom-up approach the countries with high potential are studied in more
detail. 17 companies from promissing industries were assessed on key criteria like: (i) roof
structure, (ii) solar share, (iii) process temperature, (iv) supply temperature, (v) heat carrier,
(vi) capital, (vii) annual days of production, (viii) hours of reduction per day. For some of the
criteria the result can only be estimated3 . The selection of companies was mainly based on
internet research of websites for industrial development4 . There was no strict methodology for
the selection of companies but size was a key criteria5 (e.g. turnover, employees). For this study
the companies were made anonymous. The approach used within the bottom up part of this
study is sampling - examining a small number of enterprises and drawing conclusions about
the population. For statistically valid results the sampling has to adhere to several conditions,
as discussed in (Freedman et al., 1997). Since they could not be fulfilled within this study the
results are not statistically sound but provide a confined insight.
Third, within the sensitivity analysis eleven input factors are assessed on their relative impact.
Forth, within the reference scenarios several scenarios are discussed which are based on actual

3
The solar share for example depends on a varying demand. Moreover, often not all area which theoretically
can be covered will be be available for installation.
4
for Morocco: http://www.emergence.gov.ma, for Tunisia: http://www.tunisianindustry.nat.tn
5
as shown in Figure 6 the technology is only suitable for comparatively big installations

8
country data but not on specific companies. This allows to compare focus countries and dif-
ferent systems (steam, cooling). Finally, within an institutional comparison the countries are
assessed and good institutional frameworks identified.

1.2. Literature review

Within the literature on SHIP there are two major approaches. Some studies use a bottom up
approach, extrapolating a total potential from some assessed companies. Others use a top down
approach, based on aggregated industrial figures. UNIDO found that solar thermal energy can
contribute 1,556 TWh/y (≈ 3%) to industrial energy demand by 20506 (UNIDO, 2011). A
study on the ”Potential Of Solar Heat for Industrial Processes” (POSHIP) (Schweiger et al.,
2001) estimated the potential for solar heat at medium temperatures for Spain and Portugal as
around 5.8 TWh/year. Another study, ”PROduzieren MIt SOlar Energie” (Engl.: ”Producing
with Solar Energy” - PROMISE)(Müller et al., 2004) found a potential of 1.5 TWh/year in
Austria. The European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF) identified the potential for
Europe and the key challenges for SHIP (ESTIF, 2006). The Ecoheatcool report(Ecoheatcool
and Euroheat and Power, 2006) studied the total European heat market, also for Industry. As
part of Task 33/IV of the International Energy Agency (IEA) a report (Vannoni et al., 2008)
summarized the studies mentioned above. In 2009 another study estimated the total solar
thermal potential for Europe (Weiss and Biermayr, 2009). A recent study assessed the total
potential for SHIP in Germany (Lauterbach et al., 2011b) and examined nine sectors in more
detail. It found a potential of 15.6 TWh/year (3.1 % of the total industrial heat demand). The
results of the various studies (e.g. potential in TWh) can not be directly compared since they
differ, inter alia, in the temperature range and the country size. Nevertheless, they all found
a potential of around 3-4.5 % of the total industrial heat demand (Lauterbach et al., 2011b),
and that the installed capacity is far behind the potential. Some papers also deal with specific
projects and technical challenges like (Krüger et al., 2010). There are two studies examining
the MENA region. Solaterm found great potential for solar thermal energy collection, but little
usage (Drück et al., 2007). Reiners estimated the total potential for solar steam production in
industry for the Mediterranean region7 to be 325 – 373 TWh (Reiners, 2011). Despite smaller
differences all studies found similar results. First, there is a large potential for SHIP. Second,
the most promising industries are (i) food and beverages, (ii) textile, (iii) plastics, (iv) pulp
and paper as well as (v) chemical. Third, there are still major challenges, the most important
ones are listed below in Section 3.7.
6
Biomass contributes around 8 % today and is expected to continue its dominant role.
7
Including MENA and southern Europe

9
2. Fundamentals
This chapter provides fundamental knowledge necessary for this study. Section 2.1 introduces
the principles of solar energy collection. Section 2.2 describes the technology of the LFC
collector and Section 2.3 lists basic concepts for the integration of solar thermal energy in
industrial processes. Finally, Section 2.4 introduces financial tools for the economic analysis.

2.1. Basic solar energy

The radiation at the earth surface is determined by the geometrical relation of the earth surface
to the sun as well as absorption and scattering processes within the atmosphere. Their effect
depends on atmospheric particles (aerosols8 ) and the distance within the atmosphere which
the sun beams have to cross. The later is usually expressed as the atmospheric mass (AM),
the distance relative to the path vertically upward. The global irradiance (G) is divided into
the beam irradiance (Gb ) and the diffuse irradiance (Gd ) . Due to its diurnal and seasonal
variation the irradiance is commonly expressed as the integrated value over one year9 . Within
the MENA region Gb can reach up to 2, 800kW h/m2 /y according to a study by the Deutsches
Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt10 (DLR, 2005).

Solar Geometry
The incidence angle of solar beams on the earth can be fully described by two angles.

• zenith angle = ΘZ between the beam and the surface normal

• azimuth angle = γ between the projection beam on the horizontal plane and south

In order to derive them, the solar declination angle and the hour angle are necessary. Since the
earth axis of rotation is always tilted by 23.45◦ relative to the axis normal to the ecliptic plane,
the solar declination angle - the angle between the sun earth center line and its projection on
the equator - changes between ±23.5 % over the year. Moreover, the hour angle - the angle the
earth would have to turn to bring a specific spot directly under the sun - provides the position
of the earth to the sun independet of our local times. Thus, the incidence angle depends on a
specific spot, date and time.

8
Liquid or solid particles in the air (e.g. water vapour, dust, combustion products, volcano particles)
9
To reduce variations between the years data is sometimes provided for a typical meteorological year (TMY).
10
German Aerospace Centre

10
Solar resource assessment for concentrating collectors
Concentrating collectors only work with Gb , which is also called direct normal irradtion (DNI),
whereas non-concentrating collectors or photovoltaic cells can use direct and diffuse irradiation.
Their input resource is the global irradiance. The annual variability of Gb compared to G is
much higher since the first is strongly affected from clouds (absorption or reflection) and aerosols
(scattering) (Lohmann et al., 2006). For measuring DNI data there are various approaches. It
can be measured with pyrheliometers from the ground, with satellite images or in a hybrid
method where the advantages of the ground data (spatial accurateness) and the satellite data
(availability of long time series) are combined. Today various institutions offer DNI data11 which
differ in measurements and / or their analysis. Suri et al. compared six spatial databases and
found the differences in global irradiation to be 7 % on average (Suri, 2008). For DNI it can be
expected to be higher, as mentioned above. Moreover, they also found higher differences in areas
with low quality and density of data. Thus, for the MENA region were data is scarce and often of
low quality high variations between different sources are expected12 and examples can be seen in
Table 1. This is a major obstacle for solar projects with concentrating collectors. Furthermore,

Table 1: Differences in DNI data from various institutions for MENA12

Location DLR Meteonorm UNEP (SWERA) Max Diff in %
DNI in kWh/m2 /y
Cairo, Eypt 2300 2041 2117 11
Casablanca, Morocco 2100 1798 1570 25
Tunis, Tunisia 1900 1805 1642 14

satellite data should be validated with ground measurements; Masdar overestimated the DNI for
their Shams 1 project by more than 10 % with satellite images (Deign, 2012). While validation
can be done for concentrated solar power (CSP) projects it can be an obstacle for SHIPc since
validation costs (≈ 30.000 e) are comparatively higher due to lower investments. As a first
step for country classification DLR published CSP performance indicators for MENA countries
(Trieb et al., 2005). It is an average yield per area for a specific country. It is based on the
DNI on the ground (after correcting for atmospheric disturbances) on a 5km*5km spatial and
0.5 h temporal resolution. All areas which are unsuitable for CSP power generation (e.g. slope,
restricted areas, water bodies etc.) are excluded. However, the differences in DNI within a
11
for example: Mines-ParisTech (http://www.helioclim.org), DLR (http://www.solemi.de), or Meteonorm
(http://www.meteonorm.com)
12
A DLR project (2010 – 2012) produces a solar atlas for the Mediterranean to address this issue.
12
Data from (Trieb et al., 2005) and (UNEP, 2005) is read from maps which is less exact. SWERA = Solar
and Wind Energy Resource Assessment

11
country are often as a large as between countries. Looking at Morocco for example, the CSP
performance indicator is 2600 kWh/m2 /a while the irradiation in the major industrial areas
is around 1800 kWh/m2 /a (Meteonorm 6.1). Even taking into account that there are major
uncertainties with both measurements there is still a vast difference. Thus, aggregated values
are not a good indicator to identify potential for SHIPc .

2.2. Collection of solar energy with linear Fresnel collectors

The principle of LFC13 is to concentrate the sunlight on an absorber tube that is fixed above
the collector field. However, unlike in parabolic trough collectors (PTC), this is done by several
linearly aligned reflectors (see Figure 1), each with a characteristic curvature.

Figure 1: Model of a linear Fresnel collector (Industrial Solar GmbH)

Like all concentrating solar collectors LFC can only use direct irradiation. LFC have two
characteristic planes – the longitudinal plane standing vertically on the collector field and
running parallel to the absorber and the transversal plane standing vertically on the collector
field but crossing it (see Figure 2). The three crucial angles in a LFC are defined in Table 2.

Table 2: Characteristic angles in linear fresnel collectors

Angle Definition
θT The transversal angle between the z-axis and the pro- θT = arctan(| sin(γ)| tan(θZ ))
jection of the solar position in the transversal plane.
θL The longitudinal angle between the z-axis and the θL = arctan(cos(γ) tan(θZ ))
projection of the solar position in the longitudinal plane.
θI The incidence angle between the solar position and θI = arctan(cos(γ) sin(θZ ))
the transversal plane.
13
The name of this technology dates back to Augustin-Jean Fresnel (1788 – 1827). First demonstrations were
done by Giovanni Francia (1911-1980) in Italy.

12
 Figure 2: Crucial planes in linear Fresnel collectors (Mertins, 2009)

Tracking
Since the absorber is fixed above the collector field all reflectors have a different inclination
towards the sun. The inclination angle ϕpr (Equation 1) of the primary receivers depends on
the horizontal (Xpr ) and vertical distance (Hrc +Z) from the absorber as well as on the transversal
angle θT . All mirrors turn with the same angular speed (15◦ / h) and can be operated by a single
motor. However, they are commonly operated individually or in smaller groups for reasons of
controlling and to avoid a complete break down.

X
θT − arctan( H rcpr
+Z
)
ϕpr = (1)
2

2.2.1. Optical and thermal analysis

Optical effects
In LFC the primary reflectors are slightly bend in order to focus the radiation on the absorber.
Thus, radiation parallel to the main axis of the reflectors causes a single focal line. However,
since the mirrors are not normal14 to the incoming radiation LFC always suffer from an astigma-
tism (Mertins, 2009) (see Figure 3), which reduces efficiency. Moreover, further effects reduce
the optical efficiency (η th ).

• Cosine losses due to low positions of the sun

14
If the central mirror is normal to the incoming radiation it is in the shade of the secondary reflector.

13
 Figure 3: Astigamatism in linear Fresnel collectors (Mertins, 2009)

• Shading due to absorber, structure or secondary reflector

• Occultation of reflected radiation at the back of other mirrors

• Line end losses when the reflection misses the absorber in the longitudinal axis

• Optical errors due to material, construction or tracking

• Absorption of radiation in the primary / secondary reflector or the outer absorber skin

The optical efficiency η opt takes all theses effects into accounts and sets the thermal output
in relation to the incoming energy. Since the reflectors change their position to the sun the
aperture area is not constant in LFC. Thus, the area of the primary receiver Apr is used as in
Equation 2.

q˙
η opt = (2)
Gb Apr

Effects of orientation
The yield of LFC depend on their orientation, whereas north – south orientated collectors have
higher yields over the year (roughly 5 - 8 %) while east – west orientated collectors have longer
operating hours and thereby higher yields in winter times. For the application in industry both
orientations have advantages (see Section 2.3.3) and thus orientation is not a decisive factor.
Two exemplary yield profiles are shown in Figure 4.

Thermal effects
The energy yield of solar thermal collectors can be approximated by Equation 3. Concentrating
collectors bundle the radiation on the absorber in order to achieve higher temperatures (T) of
the heat fluid. The concentration ratio (CR) is defined as the ratio of the aperture (Aap ) to

14
 average yields in MWth / day

10

.
0.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
. North –. South . East –. West

Figure 4: Monthly average daily yields of a collector with 2816 m2 apperture area in Korba, Tunisia
(DNI 1898 W/m2 ) (data: Meteonorm 6.1, simulation: Industrial Solar GmbH)

A
the absorber area (Aabs ), CR = A ap . It is ultimately limited by the relation of the sun to the
abs
earth15 . Heat losses depend on the temperatur difference between the heat fluid (T) and the
ambient temperature (Ta ).

Aap
q˙th = η opt Gb − [ϵσ(T 4 − T a 4 ) + α(T − T a )] (3)
Aabs

The collected energy η opt ∗ Gb is reduced by thermal losses due to convection and radiation.
Both effects depend on the operating temperature of the system and the specific material
properties (emissivity, conductivity). With higher temperature differences or lower irradiation
the collector efficiency η col drops, as can be seen in Figure 5.

2.2.2. Components of linear Fresnel collectors

For the primary reflectors of LFC flat mirrors can be used, which are bended mechanically.
This is possible due to the comparatively large distance of the primary reflector to the absorber
and can drive down the costs. The collector field is defined by the number of primary receivers,
their width and length as well as the distance between the reflectors. The glass of the mirrors
should be thin and with a low iron content to reduce absorption16 . At the same time, the glass
and the reflective layer have to withstand harsh environmental conditions.
In LFC secondary reflectors are used since not all the reflected radiation hits the absorber
15
CRmax (2 dimensional) = 212 whereas CRmax (3 dimensional) = 45,033. Commercial LFCs have a CR ≈ 30
16
Flabeg specifications for flat mirrors for CSP: thickness 0.95 mm – 4 mm, minimal reflectivity 93.5 % – 95 %

15
 60
η th in %

40

20

0. .
0 100 200 300 400 500
temperature difference (T - Ta ) in ◦ K
. .
200 W/m 2. .
400 W/m2. .
800 W/m 2. .
1000 W/m 2

Figure 5: Thermal efficiency of LFC (aperture width = 26 m, η opt = 0.669) (Mertins, 2009)

directly. Thereby more reflectors can be installed per receiver. Furthermore, the secondary
reflector reduces convection losses at the absorber.
The absorber pipe collects the incoming radiation and conveys it to the heat carrier. There-
fore, its selective coating should have a low emittance and high absorptance17 . Moreover, it has
to withstand high temperatures. Sometimes the absorber pipe is protected with a glass cover
from below. In other installations vacuumised tubes are used as in PTC. In order to avoid
clogging only treated water can be used.

2.2.3. Specific advantages of linear Fresnel collectors

The selection of the optimal solar thermal collector depends on the intended application, mainly
process temperature. LFC are suitable for medium temperatures (100◦ C – 400◦ C). Below the
major advantages of LFC are listed, following a study on the Solarmundo project (Häberle
et al., 2002). Most of them have to be understood in comparison to PTC.

• The usage of flat mirrors offers great potential for cost reduction (Kalogirou, 2004),
(Häberle et al., 2002).

• Low wind-loads reduce breaking of mirrors and reduce costs for motors and gears (Morin
et al., 2006).

• LFC can have lower investment cost and longer life time since no flexible high pressure
joints are needed like in PTC (Häberle et al., 2002).
17
Specifications of Schott PTR® 70: emittance ≤ 10 % and absorptance of ≥ 95 %

16
 • Higher land use efficiency compared to PTC since collector field can be more densily
packed (Häberle et al., 2002).

• Low operation and maintenance cost due to easy access and cleaning (Häberle et al.,
2002), (Morin et al., 2012).

• Multiple land use since collectors can be installed on rooftops (Häberle et al., 2002).

• Advantages in direct steam generation (DSG) since most radiation hits absorber from
below.

However, also PTC have major advantages. They can achieve even higher temperatures due
to greater concentration and there is much more experience in the operation. Which technology
is most suitable for a specific application has to be seen case by case, nevertheless for SHIPc
there are several advantages of LFC.

2.2.4. Cost and yields of linear Fresnel collectors

Even tough PTC is the dominant technology for concentrated solar energy in the last years
more companies started to work on LFC18 . Despite the same operating principle the designs
of the systems differ. For electricity generation LFC are usually bigger (greater CR to reach
higher temperatures). Moreover, costs depend on system size as shown in Figure 6.

1,000

800
Costs per m2

600

400

200

0.
0.5 MW 1 MW 10 MW
Capacity

Figure 6: Cost function of linear Fresnel collectors (Industrial Solar GmbH)

18
For example Areva (France), CNIM (France), Fera (Italy), Ferrostaal (Germany), Novatec Solar (Germany),
Solar Power Group (Germany), Soltigua (Italy)

17
 In an attempt to compare the break even of LFC with PTC for electricity generation Morin
et al. found that ”little cost data for commercial LFC is published today” (Morin et al., 2012).
Apart from the uncertainties of absolute prices, projects below a certain size (e.g. 1 MW) are
not reasonable due to the cost structure. At the same time, bigger projects become increasingly
economical. The reason for the great drop in prices is the high amount for fixed costs (pumps,
control, planning). To compare prices with other technologies it is important to use the correct
variable, for energy it is usually the CSHG (see Section 2.4). Total installation costs of projects
are misleading since they also include costs for the power block, an absorption chiller or steam
storage. Also the costs per m2 for SHIPc can not compared directly with costs of power plants
since the later are usually of a size of 50 MW and above.

Yields of Linear Fresnel Collectors

Due to the course of the sun and the various impacts on DNI (see Section 2.1) the yields of
LFC vary during the day and over the year. The objectives, when applying SHIP, are low costs
per solar generated thermal energy (CSHG ) and a reasonable internal rate of return (IRR).
Therefore, the solar share should be high and wastes at peak times reduced. Average monthly
yields of a collector are shown in Figure 4, Figure 7 shows some exemplary daily production
curves.

1,500
Power in kWth

1,000

500

0. .
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Hour of the day
. .
Summar day (north - south) . Summer day .(east - west)
. Spring day (north - south) .
. .
Spring day (east - west)
. .
Winter day (north - south) . .
Winter day (east - west)

Figure 7: Daily yield profile of a collector with 2816 m2 apperture area in Korba, Tunisia
(DNI 1898 W/m2 ) (data: Meteonorm 6.1, simulation: Industrial Solar GmbH)

18
2.3. Integration of solar heat in industrial processes
Apart from the general challenges of solar energy a major obstacle for SHIP is the integration
in industrial processes. For industry a reliable supply of energy at constant specifications
(pressure, temperature) is crucial. Even short disruptions within the production process can
cause great losses. A fossil fired back-up boiler is always available. The integration of SHIPc
depends on the demands of the specific processes (e.g. heat carrier), the circumstances at the
site (e.g. area for installations), the current energy supply system (e.g. centralized system) and
the load. Moreover, due to their fluctuations at least some storage is beneficial for application.
Complex integration can drive up the costs substantially in both design and investment. As
planning and know how were already identified as major obstacles for SHIP in Europe (ESTIF,
2006) this will be even more severe in MENA. In order to identify suitable applications for
SHIPc in MENA, integration has to be taken into account. This chapter briefly describes the
main concepts.

2.3.1. Basic concepts for integration

Process or system level integration

In most industrial installations with thermal energy demand at higher temperatures there is a
central steam supply (companies with parallel supply of steam and hot water are not considered
here). For the integration of solar thermal energy there are three different possibilities, (i) steam
generation on the system level, (ii) direct coupling to a specific process and (iii) pre-heating of
boiler fed water, as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Integration of solar collectors in processes (Schweiger et al., 2001)

19
 The later is not considered since it is rather suitable for low temperature collectors. From
an energetic point of view it is reasonable to provide the processes directly with heat at the
needed temperature. This is repeatedly stressed in the studies on SHIP.

”... one should look at the actual temperature needed by the process itself and
not at the temperature of the heat carrier being used...”(Vannoni et al., 2008)

This statement holds on a macro level. When heat is generated at higher temperatures than
needed at the process energy is wasted (thermal losses increase with the temperature difference
T - Ta ). However, the situation differs from the perspective of the individual firm. First, heav-
ing only one central heat supply at the maximum temperature is easier than running various
circuits. Second, supplying heat at temperatures well above the actual process reduces the
mass flow rate as well as the dimensions of the heat exchangers and thereby investment costs.
Third, if the process is running already or will be changed in the future there might be space
constraints which undermine the installation of additional equipment (or larger hat exchang-
ers). Forth, various different cycles make the system more complex. Finally, a centralized and
standardized system is also more flexible for changes within the facility over time. Yet, if the
heat is supplied centrally the system is dominated by the process with the highest temperatures
and thermal losses increase. Schweiger et all. assessed whether integration on the system level
is possible and found that ”in almost all industries, the coupling of the solar system to the
central heat supply system is possible” (Schweiger et al., 2001). Nevertheless, when a process
has large energy requirements at low temperatures it might well be reasonable to take it off the
central system and supply the energy efficiently at low temperatures.

Direct steam generation or heat fluid

Concentrating solar collectors are capable to achieve temperatures high enough for steam gen-
eration. Yet, while steam is difficult to handle, high temperatures (e.g. up to 200◦ C) can also
be achieved with pressurized water. Adding a blend to the water can further increase the evap-
oration temperature. In industry steam is a common heat carrier, thus efficient direct steam
generation (DSG) is very beneficial for SHIPc . It reduces investment costs (heat exchanger,
thermo-oil) and the use of environmental harmful substances. The three solar steam generation
concepts are listed below (Kalogirou, 2009).

• steam-flash – Pressurized water is circulated through the collector and afterwards flashed
to steam. In order to prevent evaporation high pressures are needed in the system.
Moreover, temperature differences to the ambient are higher since there is only sensible
heat. The higher temperatures also increase thermal losses.

20
 • direct steam – A two phase flow circulates in the collector. It needs less energy for pumping
and the thermal losses are also reduced. However, air bubbles can cause flow instabilities
and high local temperature / pressure gradients which increase material stresses. Also
the operation becomes more difficult, especially in large collector fields.

• indirect steam – A heat fluid is circulated through collector while steam is generated
using a heat exchanger. While this concept is comparatively easy to operate the heat
exchanger and fluid increase the investment costs. Moreover, thermo-oils have other
inherent deficits. They are often toxic and easy flammable, especially when starting
decomposition. Furthermore, they have poorer heat transfer characteristics than water.
Thus, higher flow rates and temperature differences are necessary which decrease overall
efficiency.

Direct steam generation has a great potential since it increases efficiency and reduces invest-
ment costs (no heat exchanger or thermo-oil), yet the technique is still in its infancy. On the
power plant level there is a research project in Almeria, for SHIPc there is a pilot project in a
German aluminium factory (Dunst, 2011).

Open or Closed Systems

The differentiation between open and closed systems refers more to low temperature collectors
(especially for air) but is mentioned here for completeness. Within open systems the heat
carrier is released to the process (e.g. in drying). For wet systems one application could be
washing. In SHIPc this is not reasonable due to high thermal energy losses. Moreover, in most
applications and locations the water for the collectors need purification, which is also energy
intensive.

2.3.2. Storage

Fluctuations over seconds to seasons are an intrinsic feature of solar energy. At the same time
also industrial production varies (e.g. batches). Fitting supply to demand is a major challenge
for SHIP which can be eased by applying storage systems. Moreover, in hybrid systems (solar
and fossil) it can allow the boiler to run at optimal efficiency. Compared to electricity, heat is
comparatively easy to store. Nevertheless in practice an appropriate storage system can drive
up the costs of a SHIP installation substantially. Figure 9 provides an overview of the various
heat storage concepts following Fisch (Fisch et al., 2005).

21
 heat storage system

thermal storage chemical storage

sensible heat latent heat reaction heat

liquid solid solid – liquid liquid – gaseous

Figure 9: Thermal storage concepts (Fisch et al., 2005)

In direct storage the heat carrier is stored directly while in indirect storage the heat is stored
in a separate medium. Steam accumulators (see Figure 10) are well suited for short storage
times. They are charged by raising the temperature in a pressurized vessel and discharged by
releasing steam with lowering the pressure. By their very nature, steam characteristics change
since there is a pressure drop while releasing - this can further complicate the integration in an
industrial process if the steam is needed in a narrow temperature range.

Figure 10: Steam accumulator (Steinmann and Eck, 2005)

The latent heat concept overcomes this problem by applying phase change materials. Thereby
large amounts of energy can be stored at constant temperatures (Hirn and Mexer, 2011), and
steam at constant characteristics can be released. For temperatures with several hundred
degrees alkaline salt systems are used. However, today all the storage systems are still very
expensive. All storage systems drive up investment costs. Thus, it is reasonable to identify

22
applications where no storage is necessary. Smaller amounts of heat can often be stored in a
process - e.g. heating a bath or in the boiler. For solar cooling hot water tanks are sufficient
which are much cheaper compared to steam storage systems. Moreover, for industry cold rooms
can also be used as a storage to a certain degree if the temperature can be lowered beyond
the normal operation point. Even though storage is a crucial issue for extensive application of
SHIP today there is still large potential where no storage is needed.

2.3.3. Further effects

Orientation of the solar field As was shown in Figure 4 the orientation of the collector
field effects the annual yield. Thus, for concentrating systems the orientation is already a
crucial question in system integration. If the solar field is oriented east – west, the annualy
yield is lower compared to north – south, but the yields in winter are higher. In respect to
the integration, especially if a process is fed directly, there can be good reasons to install east
– west. This question was discussed on an actual plant in Switzerland (Marty and Frank, 2011).

Effects of a solar field on the boiler efficiency

Even though, with a sufficient big storage, a solar only production is technically possible this
is not feasible. The realistic option for the integration of SHIPc is to operate as a fuel saver,
where the conventional boiler produces steam during the night and when the irradiation is
insufficient. The boiler efficiency depends inter alia on the flue gas temperature and stack
losses, radiation and convection losses, the air-fuel ratio and the operating conditions (∆T).
Moreover, when comparing boilers it is also important to consider their operation principle19 .
If a boiler operates at a lower capacity the absolute thermal losses remain constant and raise
relative to the steam produced. Also, if the boiler has to be turned on and off more often
this reduces the overall efficiency. Thus, integrating SHIPc can reduce boiler efficiency. At
the same time, in large industries with several boilers efficiency might be raised if one boiler
can be switched of completely. It is not possible to define the impacts of the integration of a
solar field on a boiler in general, however, they can be severe and have to be taken into account.

Boiler concepts
There are mainly two different types of boiler in industry. In fire-tube boilers (see Figure 11),
the predominant type, the exhaust gases are circulated several times through a large vessel
filled with water at the bottom and steam at the top. In high speed steam generators, water is
circulated in a coil which is placed in the flame (see Figure 12). The mere presence of different
19
For example, condensing water boilers have by their operation principle a higher efficiency.

23
Figure 11: Fire-tube boiler (Viessmann GmbH,
Figure 12: High speed steam generator
2010)
(Spirax Sarco, 2011)

concepts shows that neither is superior. Also in respect to the integration of SHIPc both have
specific strengths and weaknesses which are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Comparison of boiler concept (Spirax Sarco, 2011)

Fire-tube boilers High speed steam generators
Advantages: Advantages:
+ easy to connect several boilers + smaller investment
+ dry steam + little area
+ integrated storage + can be installed everywhere
+ less water treatment necessary
Disadvantages: Disadvantages:
- high investment - wet steam
- large secured area needed - no constant pressure
- trained staff necessary - maintenance intensive pump
- long heat up time - losses in start up

Poly-generation
A measure which is commonly proposed to increase energy efficiency is poly-generation, the
production of two or more useful outputs (see Table 4). In industry the potential for poly-
generation is very high due to the demand of various types of energy (mechanical, electrical,
thermal). Poly-generation has environmental and economic advantages. First, it reduces fuel
consumption by making use of waste heat. Second, it allows to optimize output for prices - for

24
 Table 4: Outputs in poly-generation at various temperature levels
Temperature level Process
250◦ C – 400◦ C electricity generation in conventional steam turbine
electricity generation in organic Rankine cycle
industrial process heat
100◦ C – 250◦ C industrial process heat
sea water desalination with multi-effect distillation
multi-stage absorption chiller
regeneration of steam after turbine
40◦ C – 100◦ C industrial process heat
single-stage absorption chiller
district heating

example to produce electricity only during peak hours. Third, energy can be stored in the easiest
form. Yet, at the same time there are also inherent disadvantages. It increases the investment
costs and if the fuel (solar energy) is constrained the machines can not run under full capacity
simultaneously. Moreover, installations become much more complex - both for planning and
operation. For industrial purposes the combined use of heat and cooling is especially reasonable
since chillers are often run by expensive electricity. Yet, of course poly-generation can also be
applied with conventional fuel fired boilers.

2.4. Tools for financial analysis

For assessing and comparing the situation in companies energy yields have to be transferred
in monetary units. Within this part major approaches for investment appraisal are discussed,
later further financial tools are introduced.

2.4.1. Investment appraisal

For assessing whether an investment in SHIP is reasonable a financial analysis has to be done.
This section presents the major dynamic20 approaches for investment appraisal, and briefly
touches on their underlying assumptions as well as inherent strengths and weaknesses. This is
necessary, since within the literature on accounting there is no unanimity (Hering, 2008). The
three approaches are (i) capital value method, (ii) annuity method and the (iii) internal rate of
return (IRR) (Kruschwitz, 2011). Since the first two bring the same investment decision the

20
Static approaches do not respect the time when a cash flow occurs and are thus not considered here.

25
annuity method is not discussed.
For the net present value (NPV), a capital value method, all cash flows are discounted to
time t = 0. An investment should be realized if the NPV is positive and higher than all other
alternatives. It can be calculated with Equation (4), whereas LT is the the lifetime, t a specific
year, r the discounting factor and CF the cash flow (returns – expenditures).

∑
LT
CFt
NP V = t
(4)
t=1 (1 + r)

The major problem of the NPV is to select an appropriate discount rate r. Often the interest
rate is used under the rigid assumption of a perfect and unrestricted 21 capital market (Götze
et al., 2008). The major advantages of the NPV are that it is an absolute evaluation and allows
a straight forward interpretation (Crundwell, 2008).
The internal rate of return is another investment appraisal method. The basic approach is
to ask, under which discount rate the NPV becomes 0, as shown in Equation (5).

∑
LT
CFt !
IRR = {r | N P V = t
= 0} (5)
t=1 (1 + r)

The IRR is highly controversial and some textbooks argue to abandon it completely due to its
inherent deficiencies (Kruschwitz, 2011). First, the equation to find the IRR can not directly
be solved22 . Second, and more important, it is only a relative measure23 . The most critical
issue, however, refers to the re-investment. The IRR can not be used to calculate the final value
after the projects lifetime. This would imply, that ”financial investments yielding the IRR can
be made without limit. This assumption is often unrealistic, because IRR reflects cash flows
of the investment under consideration and not the opportunities in the capital market” (Götze
et al., 2008)24 . For investments in SHIPc , with long lifetimes and increasing cash flows this
assumption is especially unrealistic.
The modified internal rate of return (IRRM ) is a variation of the IRR where the cash flows
are not reinvested with the IRR, but with the interest rate at the capital market (ibar ). It can

21
Perfect: debt rate = credit rate; unrestricted: money can always be invested and borrowed
22
There can be none, one, or several mathematical solutions.
23
If there are two investments, A and B, with the following cash flows A:(-1, 10) and B: (-100, 200) A has a
higher IRR even though most investors would favour B.
24
An investment will only be realized if the expected IRR is above the interest rate at the market. If there
is the possibility to invest with the same interest rate at the capital market there is no reason to take the
investment risk at all.

26
be calculated with Equation (6).
v
u ∑LT
u (CFt )
t t=0
LT (1+r)t
IRRM = (1 + ibar ) ∗ +1−1 (6)
CIN V

A complete discussion whether this assumption is completely suitable for investments in SHIPc
can not be done here. Since the Verband Deutscher Ingenierure25 (VDI) proposes this approach
for large solar thermal systems (VDI, 2011) the IRRM is used in the financial analysis below.

2.4.2. Further financial tools

Apart from the methods mentioned above other financial tools can provide further information.
The payback period (PP), or amortization time, provides the time until an investment is paid
back. It is not an indicator of the profitability of an investment and should only be used in
addition to other methods. For investments with long life time, like in RE, it is important
to use a dynamic amortization where cash flows vary over time. The PP can be found with
Equation (7)
∑
LT
CFt
P P = min{t | N P V (t) = −C INV + t
} (7)
t=1 (1 + r)

As described above the PP is not an indicator about the profitability of investments. Neverthe-
less, a study by the German Ministry of Environment found that 80 % of the assessed German
companies use the PP as an investment criteria (Jochem et al., 2008). This is a systemic bias
against projects with long life times, even if they are highly profitable and especially impedes
investments in RE.
The costs for solar heat generation (CSHG ) provide the costs per unit of solar generated
thermal energy, including the pay back of the investment over the lifetime. They can be
calculated with Equation (8) (VDI, 2011). The investment costs (CINV ) are the total instal-
lation costs (including piping etc.) subtracted by subsidies. The operation and maintenance
costs (CO&M ) are for labour and material, whereas the consumption costs (CCons ) are the costs
for the electricity consumed by the installation. For large installations it is suggested to use
C Cons = C kWh(el) /50 (VDI, 2011). Qsol is the annual energy yield. The annuity factor (fa ) can
be found with Equation (9) (VDI, 2011). However, it has to be considered that the CSHG rise
over the lifetime due to increasing costs for O&M and electricity.

CIN V ∗ fa + CO&M
CSHG = + CCons (8)
Qsol
25
German Engineer Association

27
 (1 + ibar )LT ∗ ibar
fa = (9)
(1 + ibar )LT − 1
The Greenhouse gas abatement costs, see Equation (10), (McKinsey, 2009) are an im-
portant tool to compare different investments. They express the additional costs which are
necessary to reduce the emission of CO2eq . Thus, they are rather used by policy makers to
compare efficiency of environmental investments, for example whether to invest in CSP, in
SHIP or in forestation26 . For the calculation of abatements costs the NPVs of an investment
and an alternative (base case) have to be compared. However, this is restricted to direct finan-
cial costs. Indirect benefits like the creation of jobs, or the reduction of electrical peak loads
through solar cooling are commonly not included even though they also have great influence
on policy making.

(Full costs of CO2eq efficient alternative) − (Full costs of reference solution)

Abatement costs =
(CO2eq from reference solution) − ( CO2eq from efficient alternative)
(10)

A sensitivity analysis (SA) can help to deal with uncertainties. Investments in RE are
characterized by high front up costs and when estimating the feasibility major uncertainties
can not be avoided, for example the development of fossil fuel prices. A SA asks ”what if”
questions and allows to assess the impact of varying factors and on a model. It is done in four
major steps (Kruschwitz, 2011).

1. Selection of uncertain input factors and output function

2. Formulation of a mathematical model of the output function

3. Definition of an interval of variation

4. Analytical determination of the intervals of the output function for each input factor

From the perspective of an investor the objective of a SA is not no identify the factors with
the largest absolute impact, but rather the ones with the largest impact within an appropriate
interval27 . In Section 5.1 the IRRM as well as the CSHG are examined as objective functions
in a single varying input analysis. Afterwards, the two most important factors are varied
simultaneously in respect to the IRRM .
26
McKinsey published various national and international reports comparing abatement measures (McKinsey,
2009)
27
The collector efficiency as well as the CAAGR of fossil fuels are unknown, however, in estimating the latter
there is much more uncertainty.

28
Summing up, the following was found. First, there are a variety of assessment tools which
differ in their assumptions and approaches. Thus, also the evaluation of SHIP depends on the
choice of the appraisal tool. Second, companies often base their investment decisions on the
PP (Jochem et al., 2008), a method which is not suitable for evaluation and which systemically
bias RE investments.

29
3. Top down approach - energy situation in Middle East and
North Africa
This chapter discusses the energy supply and demand in MENA, and the potential for RE.
Afterwards the potential for SHIPc in MENA is assessed and suitable sectors identified. In the
end, the major challenges for SHIP are mentioned.

3.1. Energy supply and demand

Energy demand and CO2 emissions in MENA are growing strongly for the last two decades as
shown in Table 5. According to the IEA the total primary energy demand (TPED) in MENA
grew from 378 Mtoe in 2000 to 546 Mtoe28 in 2007 and is expected to raise to 1030 Mtoe in
2030 (IEA, 2009). The main drivers are growth of the population29 (World Bank, 2011b) and
the gross domestic product (GDP)30 .

Table 5: Energy demand and CO2 emissions in MENA (IEA, 2009)

Indicator Unit 1990 2007 2030 CAAGR in %
(2007–2030)
TPED Mtoe 220 546 1030 2.8
CO2 emissions Mt 588 1375 2495 2.6

The rising energy consumption poses great challenges on the countries. In addition to the
ones mentioned in Section 1 there are two more severe issues in MENA. Many governments
support energy consumption by subsidies. In times of rising energy prices this is an increasing
burden on governmental budgets. Moreover, in some countries there are temporal or regional
energy shortages (fuel, electricity at peak times) with high economic costs. Thus, the energy
challenge is severe in MENA, but differs between the countries. Some MENA countries have
abundant fossil fuels and can continue their current extraction for more than 100 years31 . In
others resources are expected to deplete within the next two decades. In many countries the
poor can not afford rising energy prices and the the energy situation thereby also increases the
risk of social unrest. It is clear that major changes are necessary to achieve social, economic
and environmental sustainability of the energy system in MENA. Following an approach for the

28
Not exactly the same countries are covered as in this study.
29
The CAAGR for population in MENA between 2000 and 2010 is 2 %.
30
The CAAGR for the GDP in MENA between 2000 and 2007 is 5 %.
31
Exact predictions are not possible, especially since with raising prices new extraction methods become feasible.

30
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (Sutter, 2003) dimensions of sustainability are depicted
in Table 6. All challenges mentioned above can be overcome by RE in the mid term. Whereas
the break even point of different RE varies, they all become cheaper while fossil fuels rise.

Table 6: Sustainability criteria (Sutter, 2003)

Energy demand
Social Development Environmental Development Economic Development
Stakeholder participation Fossil energy resources Technology transfer
Improved services Land resources Regional economy
Capacity development Air quality Microeconomic efficiency
Equal distribution Water quality Employment generation

3.2. Potential for renewable energies

Even though RE only play a minor role today, the MENA region has great resources for wind
and solar energy. The MED-CSP study (Trieb et al., 2005) assessed the potential for various
technologies and found that MENA can not only satisfy all its energy demand with RE but
even generate income by the export of clean energy. The Red Sea for example belongs to the
most promising regions for wind power in the world. Currently hydro power still accounts
for the largest share of RE in MENA32 while solar energy has by far the largest potential.
Still, only a well balanced mix of technologies can ensure a sustainable energy supply33 . In the
appendix (E) there is an overview over the total economic potential for the various technologies
in the MENA region. This study focuses solely on LFC for SHIPc , whereas the DLR studied
power generation with concentrating technologies (Trieb et al., 2005). They estimated the
total economic potential (defined as those areas with a DNI of more than 2,000 kWh/m2 /a)
as 632,099 TWhel /a. Even though this number can not be transferred directly it indicates the
potential.

3.3. Overview of countries and selection for bottom up assessment

So far MENA was described on an aggregated level. However, the countries are extremely
heterogeneous in resource endowments and economic development. While Qatar has one of the
highest GDP per capita in the world (29,460 US$), Yemen belongs to the poorest (558 US$).

32
For example the Aswan dam in Egypt with a capacity of 2.1GW
33
In additon to Table 6 grid stability is also of major importance.

31
Some countries (e.g. Kuwait) export 5 times more energy than they consume while others (e.g.
Morocco) can only satisfy 4 % of their demand by local production. Table 7 below provides an
overview of relevant energy and socio-economic indicators. Within Appendix E more details
are given for each country. The solar resource is very high for all MENA countries and the CSP
performance indicator (see Section 2.1) is used for comparison. The same index was also used to
calculate the ”annual earnings per m2 ”34 . The results are aggregated on a national level and can
not be used to predict a specific site due to DNI variances within the countries. Nevertheless,
the ”annual earnings per m2 ” are an indicator combining solar resource and energy costs which
can be used for a ranking. The resource to production ratio (R/P) gives the remaining time in
years under which resources are available under the current rate of exploitation. Within this
analysis coal is not considered since it has a minor role in MENA and in industry especially.
It is important to stress that there are more crucial variables, especially institutions for the
support of RE. They are not included in the top-down analysis but will be mentioned later on
country level. Various criteria exist to identify promising countries. On the one hand countries
with high energy prices and little resources have the greatest need for RE. On the other hand,
resource rich countries with high GDP per capita can more easily afford to shift their energy
supply system or realize pilot projects. For the present analysis focus was on high energy
(diesel) prices35 , a reasonable DNI and a sufficient size of industry (population and GDP per
capita). Based on these criteria the following two countries are identified.

• Morocco; (diesel = 0.83 US$ / liter, Production / TPES < 5 %)

• Tunisia; (diesel = 0.84 US$ /liter, Production / TPES < 85 %)

3.4. Industrial heat demand

Since there are no detailed studies on industrial energy demand in MENA and the structure of
industrial energy demand (relative distribution of energy forms, temperatures etc.) is expected
to be similar between regions this section is based on European and German data. It is assumed
that the results can be reasonably transferred to MENA37 . According to Eurostat (see Figure
13) the industry accounts for 27 % of total energy demand. This demand can further be
34
How much money would have to be spent on diesel to obtain the same amount of energy as can be harvested
annually per m2 . Prices for heating oil would be better for industry, however, data was not available.
35
Diesel prices are used since there is no source on heating oil prices for industry.
36
The cost for diesel necessary to obtain the same amount of energy per m2 with an assumed efficiency of 40
%. Diesel prices were used instead of heavy fuel oil costs in order to have consistent data for all countries
for the same year.
37
Despite differences, for example in efficiency, industrial energy demand is determined by the technical process.

32
 Table 7: Crucial indicators for country selection

annual earnings per m2 in e36

GDP / capita in current US$
GDP in current billion US$

CSP performance indicator

Production/TPES in %
Industry as % of GDP

R/P ratio gas in years

R/P ratio oil in years
Population in million

Diesel price in US$

Country
Algeria 35.5 159 4,495 62 2,700 437 18 55 0.2 27
Bahrain 1.2 20.6 17,606 n.a. 2,050 189 7 n.a. 0.13 13.3
Egypt 81.1 219 2,699 38 2,800 123 16 35 0.2 28
Jordan 6.1 27.6 4,557 33 2,700 4 n.a. n.a. 0.61 82.3
Kuwait 2.6 109.5 41,463 n.a. 2,100 581 >100 >100 0.2 21
Lebanon 4.2 39.2 9,262 21 2,000 4 n.a. n.a. 0.76 76
Lybia 6.4 62.4 9,805 78 2,700 569 73 100 0.12 16.2
Morocco 31.9 91.2 2,802 30 2,600 4 n.a. n.a. 0.83 107.9
Oman 2.7 46.9 17,293 n.a. 2,200 386 19 40 0.38 41.8
Qatar 1.6 98.3 61,445 n.a. 2,000 517 55 >100 0.19 19
Saudi Arabia 27.5 434.7 15,834 70 2,500 358 75 >100 0.09 11.3
Syria 20.5 59.1 2,891 35 2,200 119 18 49 0.53 58.3
Tunisia 10.5 44.3 4,199 32 2,400 82 n.a. n.a. 0.84 100.8
Turkey 72.8 735.3 10,106 28 2,000 29 n.a. n.a. 1.62 162
UAE 6.9 230.3 33,183 61 2,200 309 >100 >100 0.62 68.2
Yemen 23.3 26.4 1,130 n.a. 2,200 203 25 >100 0.17 18.7

divided into the various forms of energy, whereas process heat has the largest share. The
relative distribution for Germany is shown in Figure 14. The relative heat demand differs
between industries whereas the iron and steel, as well as the chemical sector have the highest
energy demand as shown in Figure 15. Due to high temperatures of sometimes more than
800◦ C the iron and steel, as well as glass industry can not be covered with LFC.

33
 Transport

Industry 32%
27% .

41%

Services & households

Figure 13: Energy consumption in different sectors (Eurostat, 2011)

HVAC & warm water

Mechanical energy
10%
23%
.
3%
64% Lightning & IT

Process heat

Figure 14: Industrial energy demand in Germany (BMWi, 2011), IT = information technology;
HVAC = heating, ventilation and air conditioning

60
Mtoe

40

20

. .
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
. Iron &. steel . .
Chemical . Textile &. leather . .
Glass
. Paper & .printing . Food & tobacco .
. .
Engineering & other metal . .
Other

Figure 15: Final energy consumption of industrial sectors in Europe (Eurostat, 2010)

34
 In the chemical sector processes covers a very broad temperature range, thus, the sector can
not be classified at whole. For the next step of the analysis temperature levels will be introduced.
Afterwards industry can be classified according to the temperature of their dominant heat
demand. The exact limits are somewhat arbitrary, here the levels of the Ecoheatcool study
(Ecoheatcool and Euroheat and Power, 2006) (Ecoheatcool2006) will be used. Their relative
shares are shown in Figure 16.

> 400◦ C

43%
.
30%
27%
< 100◦ C
100◦ C – 400◦ C

Figure 16: Temperature distribution for European industry (Ecoheatcool and Euroheat and Power,
2006)

Of course, most industries have processes at different temperatures. Within this analysis the
focus is on SHIPc with LFC. As shown above they are reasonable at medium temperatures.
Nevertheless, for calculating the potential of SHIPc both segments, <100◦ C and 100◦ C – 400◦ C
are added. Even in companies where all processes are below 100◦ C steam is a common heat
carrier. Furthermore, in companies with several processes the temperature of a central steam
supply is determined by the highest temperature. On the other hand, if the demand of high
temperatures is great, the potential is reduced since waste heat can be recovered easily.

3.5. Solar process heat at medium temperatures in Middle East and

North Africa
When transferring the data of industrial energy consumption from Germany and Europe to
MENA there are two major mistakes. First, industry is not equally distributed (not all countries
have heavy industries). Second, energy efficiency is much higher in Europe. Nevertheless, for
the objective of this study the results can be transferred. According to the IEA the MENA
countries (all 16 mentioned above) had an industrial energy demand of 1,263 TWh in 2009
(IEA, 2011). Assuming that 64 % is process heat, of which 57 % is in the range up to 400◦ C
the total demand is around 460 TWh. Even when only a fraction of this amount can be covered

35
by LFC (due to temperature) the potential is huge. Reiners used a more sophisticated approach
based on production and employment data. He estimated the total demand for process heat
(up to 250◦ C) in the Mediterranean38 to be in the range of 325 to 373 TWh (Reiners, 2011).

3.6. Suitable sectors for process heat generation at medium temperatures

As explained in Section 3 the medium temperature range (100◦ C – 400◦ C) is promising for
SHIPc with concentrating solar technologies like LFC. Below some sectors, where a large frac-
tion for their process heat demand is in the medium level, are described, namely: (i) food and
beverages, (ii) textile and (iii) plastic and chemical. Furthermore, solar cooling is another in-
teresting application. Of course there is also potential in other sectors. For example paper and
pulp industry with temperatures of 120 – 150◦ C is often mentioned as suitable. However, it is
excluded from a more detailed analysis for two reasons. First, it is characterized by very large
facilities which often generate their own electricity and have waste heat available (EPA, 2002)
(Vannoni et al., 2008). Second, even though there are some facilities within MENA, the region
as such is rather unsuitable for paper industry due to the lack of wood. Also the desalination
of seawater is very promising for concentrating solar collectors, especially in combination with
power generation. A study by the DLR (Trieb et al., 2007) assessed that the renewable water
resources in MENA are already completely in use, that the demand grows by more than 100 %
until 2050. Still,this topic goes beyond the scope of this study39 .

Chemical
The chemical industry has a great energy demand and is often considered as one of the sectors
with the biggest potential for SHIP (Lauterbach et al., 2011b). Since the industry is very
heterogeneous the processes have to be considered individually. The plastic industry, despite
suitable temperature ranges, is not promising for SHIP since heat is commonly provided with
electricity to ensure an accurate temperature distribution within the work-piece40 (Müller et al.,
2004). Moreover, according to a study by Eikmeier et al. (2005) more than 50 % of the heat
demand in the German chemical sector is above 500◦ C (Lauterbach et al., 2011b). Thus, there
is often waste heat available from higher processes or combined heat dn power (CHP) units.
Finally, in MENA the industry is strongest were it is supplied with very cheap raw materials
and energy, which also does not favour the application of SHIP. Still there are very interesting
38
Reiners included the following countries: Albania, Algeria, Croatia, Egypt, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece,
Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Tunisia and Turkey
39
50 % of the countries under examination have a higher water consumption than renewable freshwater avail-
ability, as can be seen in the country data in Appendix E.
40
This was confirmed in the visit of various plastic and cable producing companies in Tunisia.

36
processes. Within the Moroccan analysis for example a factory producing bitumen roofs was
assessed. Bitumen is a residue from oil processing. Due to its chemical properties it is com-
monly used in the construction industry to make light, durable and waterproofed roofs. An
overview of the production process of these roofs can be found in (CDC, 2001). The production
process has three inherent advantages for the application of SHIPc . First, temperatures are in
the range between 160 – 270◦ C (BWA, 2011). Second, due to the necessary investment in the
plant companies commonly have an installed capacity of several MW. Third, before processing
the product has to be stored in hot tanks at temperatures beyond 200◦ C. These storage tanks
can provide an excellent possibility for short term storage at peak times.

Textile
Also the textile industry is commonly identified as suitable for SHIP (Müller et al., 2004),
(ESTIF, 2006), (Schweiger et al., 2001) and energy is one of its major cost factors (Hasanbeigi,
2010). At the same time, it is also ”one of the most complicated manufacturing industries be-
cause it is a fragmented and heterogeneous sector dominated by small and medium enterprises”
(Hasanbeigi, 2010). According to Kalogirou (Kalogirou, 2009) drying (100◦ C – 130◦ C) and fix-
ing (160◦ C – 180◦ C) have suitable temperatures. Drying is normally done in a mechanical and
a thermal step. Müller (Müller et al., 2004) found that in Austria almost all companies are
equipped with a central steam system (around 200◦ C) to supply heat to the various processes.
An overview of the total final energy use for the US textile industry is provided by Hasan-
beigi (Hasanbeigi, 2010), which confirms that the textile industry is very suitable for SHIPc
(see Figure 17). Within the POSHIP study (Schweiger et al., 2001) various textile companies
were assessed for the application of compound parabolic concentrating (CPC) collectors, yet
no studies are available for higher concentrating technologies.

Steam
Motor driven systems
28%
28%
.
2%
4% Others
20% 18% Process cooling

Fired Heaters Facilities

Figure 17: Energy demand in US textile industry (Hasanbeigi, 2010)

37
Food and beverages
Most studies on SHIP identified food and beverage industries as very promising for SHIP
(Schweiger et al., 2001), (Vannoni et al., 2008), (Müller et al., 2004), (Lauterbach et al., 2011b),
(ESTIF, 2006). UNIDO even estimates that ” the food and tobacco sector has almost half of
the potential,” (UNIDO, 2011). Moreover, food industry is present in all countries since it is
crucial for food sovereignty41 . Reducing the impact of volatile energy costs on food production
also contributes to stable food prices in the long run. The processes with high thermal energy
demand are (i) cooking, (ii) drying and (iii) sterilization (Kalogirou, 2001). Depending on the
product the exact temperature levels differ. A challenge for SHIP in food industries is that the
annual load curve depends on harvest times and some processes can rest completely for several
weeks to months (e.g. sugar beet processing). Still, large companies are sufficiently diverse
and produce often 365 days a year. Within Europe, the beer industry is commonly mentioned
as especially suitable, and first projects have been realized already (Schneider, 2010). It is not
mentioned in this study since it can well be covered with low temperature collectors and since
beer industry is not strong in MENA.
Also the dairy industry is very interesting due to daily production and high energy demand.
Details on the processes in the food and beverage sector can be found in a study by the
European Commission (2006) (European Commission, 2006) and are summarized in Table 8.
Furthermore, there is also a constant demand for cooling which can ease small fluctuations as
will be discussed below. One of the first SHIPc projects was installed in the dairy sector in
Portugal in 1985 (Schweiger et al., 2001).

Table 8: Thermal processes in the dairy sector (European Commission, 2006)

Process Temperatures Description
Pasteurization 74◦ C This process deactivates most micro-organisms and
enzymes with minimized impact on the milk itself.
Drying 120◦ C – 180◦ C Evaporators and spray driers are applied in
multi-stage process.
Ultra-high treatment 130◦ C – 150◦ C By applying very high temperatures for a short time
the shelf life is extended for up to 1 year (uncooled)
Sterilization 130◦ C – 150◦ C In addition to ultra-high treatment sterilized milk is
heated another time to 130◦ C for 20 – 40 minutes
after filling and sealing. This can extend shelf life
up to three years.

41
Food sovereignty does not only consider calories per capita but also domestic production.

38
Solar cooling
Solar cooling is not mentioned in most studies on SHIP, even though industry often has substan-
tial cooling demands (especially the food sector). In MENA the demand for cooling increases
strongly due to population growth, raising living standards and more developed industries.
Since cooling is very energy intensive it is responsible for high CO2eq emissions. Moreover elec-
tric HVAC systems also cause grid challenges due to high peak loads. Solar cooling addresses
both challenges simultaneously. While today it is still a niche product the potential is great,
especially in the MENA region (Weiss and Mauthner, 2011). Two additional advantages are
that its output fits well to the demand curve (peak load at noon in summer) and that its
product can easily be stored (compared to electricity and steam for example). An overview of
the technical solutions is provided in Table 9.

Table 9: Overview of solar cooling technologies; source: Solair-project41

Method Closed cycle Open cycle
Cycle Closed refrigerant cycle Open refrigerant cycle
Phase of sorbent Solid Liquid Sorbent Liquid
Refrigerant pairs H2 O – SiO2 H2 O – LiBr H2 O – SiO2 H2 O – CaCl2
Ammonia – H2 O H2 O – LiCl H2 O – LiCl
Capacity 50 kW – 430 kW 15 kW – 5 MW 20 kW – 350 kW not available
COP 0.5 – 0.7 0.6 – 0.75 (single–effect) 0.5 – 1 >1
Driving temp 60◦ C – 90◦ C 80◦ C – 110◦ C (single–effect) 45◦ C – 95◦ C 45◦ C – 70◦ C

Closed-cycle absorption systems are most common (more than 60 % market share). They
can be further differentiated between single stage and multi-effect systems. The later need
higher input temperatures of up to 180◦ C, which fits well to LFC, and reuse the rejected heat
of the first stage. Therefore multi stage systems have also higher coefficient of performance
(COP), which makes them especially suitable for larger systems. The operating temperature of
a chiller depends on the refrigerant. For thermal driven cooling refrigeration–pairs have to be
found with suitable properties (e.g. evaporation temperature). Currently the application range
is still small and commercial products can only cool to around 7◦ C. Still there are various inter-
esting applications. Lokurlu examined the possibility of using multi-effect absorption machines
in combination with PTC for hotels in Turkey and found them capable of high efficient solar
chilling (Lokurlu et al., 2005). Yet, they did not compare costs with alternative technologies.
Due to investment costs the application of solar thermal powered cooling machines is only
41
see: http://www.solair-project.eu/114.0.html (last accessed 01.02.2012)

39
reasonable when there is constant cooling demand over the most time of the year or another
energy demand (e.g. laundry). The greatest potential for large solar cooling is in large public
buildings, supermarkets & malls and in the agriculture and food industry. As mentioned above
the demand for deep freezing can not be covered by solar cooling yet, but for processing or
storage a substantial demand also above 7◦ C exists. To study load profiles of food companies
with demand for both, steam and cooling, is an important step towards the breakthrough of
SHIPc . In the scope of the MEDISCO projects pilot plants were installed. In Morocco PTC
collectors are used for the cooling of milk (Ayadi, 2008), in Tunisia LFC for the cooling of wine.
Of course the investments costs increase for ab(d)sorption systems due to the chiller, additional
pumps and controls as well as storage. On the other hand, solar cooling systems compete with
electricity, not only heat.

Existing installations with concentrating collectors for process heat

As mentioned above solar energy plays only a minor role in covering thermal needs in indus-
try, SHIPc is even more scarce. A large share of the concentrating collectors which were not
installed for CSP are used for solar cooling. Below some SHIPc installations are listed:

• In 1985 PTC were installed at a dairy factory in Portugal. However, due to a lack of
maintenance, the installation stopped operation (Schweiger et al., 2001).

• At Nasr Pharmaceuticals 1,900 m2 of PTC were installed in 2003. The collectors were
produced locally. To the authors knowledge the plant never went operational due to
technical problems42 .

• Frito-Lay´s snack factory installed 5,056 m2 of PTC in Modesto, California (Abengoa,

2008).

• At a textile factory in Tamil Nadu, India, Soltigua installed collectors with 652 kW peak43 .

• At ALANOD GmbH in Enneptal, Germany, Solitem installed 108 m2 of PTC for DSG
(Dunst, 2011).

3.7. Challenges for solar heat in industrial processes

In industry RE are faced with several challenges which make application difficult. Among
others, UNIDO (UNIDO, 2011) identified the following: (i) risks associated with technology

42
http://www.solarpaces.org/Tasks/Task1/el_nasr.htm (last accessed 25.01.2012)
43
http://www.soltigua.com/projects/ (last accessed 12.01.2012)

40
transitions and the adoption of early stage technologies, (ii) the lock-in of inefficient, polluting
technologies with long lifetimes, (iii) restricted access to financial support to cover additional
costs. Moreover, the studies on SHIP identified several SHIP specific challenges. Those which
are relevant for SHIPc in the MENA region are listed below.

• Missing awareness (ESTIF, 2006), (UNIDO, 2011), (Steege, 2008), (Lauterbach et al.,
2011b)

• Confidence only in long-term proven technologies (ESTIF, 2006)

• System investment cost (ESTIF, 2006), (UNIDO, 2011), (Steege, 2008)

• Lack of know how and planning tools (ESTIF, 2006), (UNIDO, 2011), (Steege, 2008)
(Lauterbach et al., 2011b)

• Long payback times (ESTIF, 2006), (Steege, 2008)

• Low prices of fossil fuels (UNIDO, 2011), (Weiss and Biermayr, 2009)

• Availability of space (Weiss and Biermayr, 2009)

• Potential within companies to improve efficiency first (Lauterbach et al., 2011b)

41
4. Bottom up assessment
4.1. Morocco
“Morocco [... ] must also pursue its efforts aiming at
making alternative and renewable sources of energy,
the keystone of [its] national policy of energy.”
King Mohamed VI of Morocco44

4.1.1. Introduction

The Kingdom of Morocco is the most western country of MENA with an area of 710,000km2
(including West Sahara), a map is shown in Figure 18. In 1956 it became independent from
France and Spain. Its capital is Rabat, yet the economic centre is Casablanca. Morocco has
a population of almost 32 million people, the GDP per capita in 2010 was 2,802 US$. With
a Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.567 it ranks 114th. There is an ongoing conflict
about the status of the Western Sahara, an area of around 266,000km2 , and Morocco´s rule
is internationally not recognized. The West Sahara is hardly populated but a major source of
income due to its phosphate reserves and the strong fishing industry. The north of Morocco has
Mediterranean climate and good rainfall, especially at the coastal zones. Towards the south
and the east the climate becomes hotter and there is hardly any precipitation.

Figure 18: Map of Morocco; source: Lonely Planet

44
UNDP 2011 - speech on 07.03.2008 (Throne day), King Mohamed VI of Morocco, said:

42
 Morocco is a parliamentary, constitutional monarchy and there were constitutional reforms in
2011 to give more power to the parliament. However, whether the pace of reform is appropriate
is disputed within Morocco and there are demands for more social, economical and political
reforms. People repeatedly complain about the high corruption - on the index of Transparency
International Morocco ranks 80/183 (TI, 2011) (this can also be an obstacle for RE), on the
Global Competitiveness Index it ranks 73/142 (WEF, 2011). The currency within Morocco is
the Moroccan Dirham 1 e ≈ 11Dh.

4.1.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies

Morocco is very scarce in fossil fuels and imports more than 94 % of its national energy demand
according to the Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE,
2010a), more than any other MENA country. There are several energy subsidies, especially
for cooking gas, to ease the live of the poor, but also other petroleum products are subsidized.
This causes inefficient usage and is a major burden for the governmental budget. In 2008, the
petroleum subsidies reached an amount of 24.7 billion Dh (see Figure 19).
Billion Moroccan Dirham

24.7

20

10.7
10 7.4 7.7 7.35
3.4
.
0.
05

06

08

09
04

07
20

20

20

20
20

20

Figure 19: Moroccan petroleum subsidies (MEMEE, 2010)

At the same time, Morocco has great potential for RE. At the Atlantic Coast wind speeds
often exceed 8 m/s and DNI reaches up to 2,600 kWh/m2 /a (see Figure 20). According to the
DLR its economic potential for wind energy is 25 TWhel /year and 20,146 TWhel /year for CSP
(Trieb et al., 2005). In 2009, wind turbines with a total capacity of 253 MW, CSP with 20 MW
and 272,000 m2 SWH were installed. Due to its scarcity in fossil fuels Morocco has ambitious
targets in RE. In 2020 it plans to generate up to 40 % of its electricity by RE (RCREEE, 2010a).
Therefore it intends to build 2,000 MW capacity for each, CSP and wind energy. Furthermore,
it undertook institutional steps to support RE, as will be outlined in the next section. The

43
 Figure 20: Direct normal irradiation in Morocco (Trieb et al., 2005)

theoretical potential for SHIPc in Morocco can be estimated to be around 11.6 TWh45 . If there
will be a substantial export of green electricity from MENA to Europe Morocco will be the
country to profit first due to its vicinity to Spain (<30 km).

4.1.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies

Morocco currently undergoes major institutional changes in order to realize its plans in regards
to RE. The parliament adopted three laws related to RE in 2010.

• Law 13.09 (2010) – Article 4 and 6 state that plants with a capacity greater than 8 MWth
are subjected to regulations regarding installation and modification.

• Law 16.09 (2010) – Regulates the foundation and objectives of the ”Agency for the de-
velopment of renewable energies and energy efficiency” (ADEREE)

• Law 57.09 (2010) – Regulates the foundation and objectives of the ”Moroccan Agency for
Solar Energy” (MASEN)

Morocco´s RE plan is dominated by the strategy to develop large scale wind and solar projects.
The total installed capacity in 2020 shall reach 2,000 MW of both, wind and solar, operated
mainly under power purchasing agreements. Furthermore, it is the objective to develop self-
production. Thus, technologies with a higher share of local added value gain an advantage.
The major institutions in Morocco with respect to RE are briefly described below.
45
Industrial energy demand of 2,774 Mtoe (IEA), of which 64 % is process heat and a share of 57 % in the
range of 100◦ C – 400◦ C

44
The Ministry of Energy, Mining, Water and the Environment (MEMEE) is the prin-
cipal Moroccan governmental body for RE. It developed the New National Energy Strategy46
(Ministère de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement (Morocco) (MEMEE), 2010)
and is major stakeholder of all other institutions mentioned below.

The National Office for Electricity (ONE) is the state owned electricity supplier. The
electricity market was liberalized in 1999 and today ONE provides only around 40 % of the
total demand (RCREEE, 2010a). ONE will be the single buyer of the electricity produced from
the MASEN plants. Details on the electricity tariffs can be found in Appendix A.

The Society for Investments in Energy (SIE) was created in 2010. Its objective is to
manage the funds available to realize the national energy strategy. Its approach is to facilitate
investments in Morocco. To realize its objectives the SIE will launch two funds which will be
managed by experienced international financial institutions. The first fund is for RE and will
invest in CSP plants and large wind energy projects. The tender for the management was
issued already and the fund will start operation at the end of the 2011. The second fund will
address energy efficiency and will start in the beginning of 2012. For SHIP the second fund
will be responsible. The funds will not provide direct subsidies but invest in projects.

The Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy was founded in 2010 to develop 2,000 MW of
solar energy until 2020. Its stakeholders are the MEMEE, the ”Hassan II Fund For Economic
& Social Development”, the SIE and ONE47 . It is responsible, inter alia, for the coordination
of the large RE projects, the organisation of investment and finance, the contribution to R&D
as well as the promotion and supervision of the programme. MASEN concentrates solely on
large scale electricity generating projects and does not consider SHIP.

The National Agency for the Development of Renewable Energies and Energy Ef-
ficiency was formed out of the CDER (Centre for Development of Renewable Energies) by
the law 16.09. Its objective is to support the government in the development of RE. Therefore
it is responsible for the development of national plans, the design and implementation of RE
programs or the mapping of RE potentials.

46
Its seven pillars are: privatization of the downstream petrol sector, reformation of fossil fuel subsidies, de-
velopment of renewable energies, privatization of the electricity distribution system, electricity tariffs, rural
electrification, first steps towards regional integration.
47
http://www.mem.gov.ma/Ministre/Projetsolaire.htm (last accessed 11.01.2012)

45
The Institute for Research on Solar and New Energies (IRESEN) was founded in 2011.
Among others, the founding institutions were MEMEE, ADEREE, MASEN, SIE as well as
industrial partners. Its objective is, inter alia, the coordination of research themes, advice,
support and coordination of R&D projects especially in relation to industry whereas the Na-
tional Energy Plan provides the framework. IRESEN shall gradually build up the capacity in
Morocco to profit from the complete value chain of RE. Therefore it already set up various
partnerships with leading European research institutions. IRESEN is equipped with a fund to
finance projects, moreover the involved industries can do part of their research via IRESEN.

The Moroccan Association for Solar Industry (AMISOLE) was founded in 198748 . Cur-
rently it is comprised of more than 30 small companies, mainly active in the field of photovoltaic
and domestic solar hot water systems (SWH). In most companies RE is only a minor business.

In respect to SWH the MEMEE launched the PROMASOL programme (PROgramme na-
tional de développement du MArché de chauffe-eau SOLaire) in 2002 jointly with the UNDP
(United Nations Development Programme) and others. Its objective is to spread the applica-
tion of SWH by raising awareness and improve quality and certification. During the first phase
the installed area of SWH rose from 35,000 m2 in 1998 to 272,000 m2 in 2008 (Epp, 2011b).
The project had a fund of 43,000,000 $ available (UNDP, 2011). Recently PROMASOL II was
launched which addresses hotels. For larger system there was also a financial scheme introduced
to guarantee for credits49 . However, it only covers credits up to 0.25 million e and is thus too
small for SHIPc installations.
To tackle the great potential for energy efficiency the German Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
(KFW) launched the Fonds de Dépollution industrielle (FODEP). It subsidies investments for
reduction of industrial pollution with up to 40 %50 . Even though the structure of the pro-
gramme would be well suited RE projects are not eligible.
Summing up, Morocco has various institutions to support RE. Many of them are only recently
established and not yet fully operational. For SHIP there is no institution to provide support,
even though this can be cost effective. Compared to domestic SWH industrial installations
have higher running times and thus can provide more energy per investment. Whether the
strategy of the SIE to induce investments will be successful remains open.

48
http://www.amisole.com/ (last acceased 12.01.2012)
49
http://uir.fh-bingen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Marokko/Energie/datenblaetter/foerderungen/db_ma_
en_Fonds_FOGEER_2011_02_18.pdf (last accessed 12.10.2011)
50
http://www.environnement.gov.ma/fodep/presentation.asp (last accessed 05.10.2011)

46
4.1.4. Industry in Morocco

In 2008 Morocco had a GDP of around 55 billion (bn) US$ (the sector contributions can be found
in Table 10), and a trade deficit of around 19 billion US$ (United Nations Comtrade, 2011a).
Its major imports are petroleum products (17 %) whereas its major exports are phosphates51
and cables. Furthermore, also the textile and the food sector contribute strongly to exports.

Table 10: Economic data for Morocco52

Indicator agriculture industry services
% of total employment (2010) 39 22.4 38.6
% of GDP (2010) 14 28.5 57.5

In regard to energy and emissions industry accounts for 30 % of Moroccan CO2 emissions,
mainly from the production of cement, phosphates and sugar. Since their total energy demand
is expected to rise by more than 300 % until 2030, energy efficiency measures in industry
are focussed on these three sectors(World Bank, 2011a). The total energy saving potential is
estimated to be 48 % (RCREEE, 2010a). In 2008 the Moroccan industry consumed around
2,774 Mtoe of which 69 % were oil and 26 % electricity53 . As can be seen from Table 10
agriculture employs the largest share of labour but contributes little to GDP. This is commonly
defined as a constrained for further economic development. The Plan Maroc Vert 54 aims to
increase local added value of agricultural products. Within the Moroccan industry the Omnium
North–Africain (ONA) holding has an important role. It is the largest private holding in Africa
closely aligned to the Royal family. ONA is active in all major sectors, especially in mining,
agriculture, financial services, telecommunication, hotels, media and also starts in RE via its
subsidiary the Nareva Holding55 . The sectors which were identified in Section 3.6 are briefly
characterized below and in Table 11. The food and beverage sector is further subdivided.
Within Morocco a large share of food is traded locally, often in informal ways. At the same
time industrially processed food becomes stronger (AHK, 2010). The export of food, 26 %
citrus fruits, 17% fresh fish, (AHK, 2010) is a major source of income but is constrained by low
quality. Thus, Morocco invests heavily to improve its food industry and increase exports. Due
to the climate agricultural production and food industry is mainly located in the north.
51
Together with the West Sahara territories Morocco has around 70 % of world phosphate resources.
52
Employment date from the Moroccan Statistical Office (Haut-Commissariat au Plan du Maroc) (HCP, 2011);
GDP data from the Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance
53
data from EIA, see Appendix E
54
http://www.ada.gov.ma/Plan_Maroc_Vert/plan-maroc-vert.php (last accessed 03.11.2011)
55
Nareva developed for example the Haouma Wind Farm Project with a total capacity of 50 MW.

47
 Table 11: Overview of selected Moroccan industrial sectors56
sector companies employees turnover % of exports listed at
in Dh stock exchange
food (total) 1,180 (2) 75,627 (1) 84,568,271 (1) – 9
dairy 88 (2) – – – 1
fish 217 (2) – – 6 1
beverages 31 (2) – – – 3
fruits & vegetables 144 (2) – – – 1
textile & leather 1,576 (2) 204,632 (1) 28,370,400 (1) 10 0

Fish industry
Morocco has the largest fish market in Africa and accordingly the fish industry is very strong.
Major fishing hubs are Agadir, Safi, Tan-Tan and Laayoune (West Sahara). Similar to agricul-
ture also the fish sector shall be upgraded. Until 2020 the government wants to increase fish
exports by 250 % and increase jobs by more than 10 %57 . While all kind of fish is processed in
Morocco the production of fish meal is especially relevant for SHIPc . Production takes place in
six steps (i) delivery, (ii) cooking, (iii) pressing and separation of oil, (iv) drying, (v) cutting
and (vi) filling. For the cooking and drying steam with around 200◦ C is used. Due to the big
quantities the energy demand is very large.

Textile industry
The textile sector in Morocco grew strongly between the early 1980s and early 1990s, mainly
due to its proximity to Europe. It contributes little to the GDP but absorbs a large share of
low skilled labour (see Table 11). However, after the competition from Asia became stronger,
especially after the end of the Multifibre Arrangement 58 , Moroccan production decreased. Com-
pared to 2004 the textile exports from Morocco to the EU dropped by 7.4 % (World Bank, 2006).

Sugar industry
The Moroccan sugar sector is dominated by the Cosumar group to which the five major compa-
nies (Sunabel, Suta, Cosumar, Sucrafor and Surac) belong. It processes sugar beets and canes
and has an annual production of over 1.2 million tons59 . More than 80,000 farmers rely on
56
Data from Ministry of industry and commerce (1) (MICNT, 2010), Emergence website (http://www.
emergence.gov.ma (2)) and UN Statistics (3) (United Nations Comtrade, 2011a).
57
http://www.invest.gov.ma/?Id=66&lang=en&RefCat=6&Ref=149 (last accessed 15.12.2011)
58
The Multifibre Arrangement restricted the amount of textiles which could be exported from developing to
developed countries between 1974 and 2004.
59
http://www.ada.gov.ma/en/plans\_regionaux/filiere-sucriere.php (last accessed 29.09.2011)

48
the sector and there is a strong involvement by the government which also sets the prices and
import tariffs. On an international level the Moroccan sugar industry lacks behind in technical
know how and would suffer with increased liberalization. In 2008 a CDM project at a Surac
plant was realized where a bagasse boiler was installed60 .

Dairy industry
Due to raising living standards and better processing facilities the Moroccan consumption of
dairy products grows. The dairy sector has an output of 1.5 million tons of raw milk per year,
whereas milk production shall double until 2020 (FAO, 2011a). The dominant player is Central
Latiere a fully privatized company belonging to ONA and Danone61 .

Solar cooling
Apart from cooling for office buildings and malls also the food industry offers a large cooling
potential. A study conducted in 2008 (EEAA, 2008) estimated the total cooling capacity in
the agriculture and food sector in Morocco to be 1,700,000 m2 or 1,301 MW. The estimations
are rough but a lack of refrigeration capacity is commonly identified as a major constraint for
the Moroccan food sector. Thus, the government supports the expansion of capacity by tax
reduction and direct subsidies (EEAA, 2008). Fruits and vegetables account for the largest
share of capacity with 66 %, dairy products and fish for 17 % and 14 % respectively. While the
efficiency of current cooling equipment is often bad solar cooling can be a good choice for new
developments. In the scope of the MEDISCO project a 13 kW absorption machine was installed
at a dairy farm in 2008 driven by roof mounted PTC (Ayadi, 2008). While fish industry mainly
needs deep freezing solar cooling can be suitable for citrus fruits.

4.1.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Morocco

This section summarizes the qualitative findings of the analysis of SHIPc in Morocco. The
main results are depicted in Table 12. The qualitative results, especially the solar share, are
estimations. The data on the process temperature are based on data from companies and
literature. The high temperature in ”Food 5” is due to the use of a CHP unit, the processes
are at lower temperatures (130◦ C).

60
http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/TUEV-SUED1221131848.46 (last accessed 01.02.2012)
61
Other companies are Copag, Safilait, Superlait, Colainord

49
 Table 12: Results from company visits in Morocco62

process temperature in ◦ C

supply temperature in ◦ C

hours of production
days of production
product / process

heat carrier
solar share
roof

fuel
company
Food 1 Dairy 170 C L 210 ST 365 24 oil
Food 2 Fish meal 120 S M 140 ST 250 12 oil
Food 3 Juice 130 S L 185 ST 365 24 oil
Food 4 Fish meal 120 S M 180 ST 230 12 oil
Food 5 Sugar & CHP 385 C L 390 ST 365 24 oil
Food 6 Fish meal 120 S L 180 ST 230 12 oil
Food 7 Fish meal 120 S L 180 ST 230 12 oil
Textile 1 Dying 130 C H 130 ST 365 16 oil
Textile 2 Dying 130 C M 175 ST 365 16 oil
Plastic 1 Bitumen 235 S L 250 O 365 16 oil

Institutional

• There is no institution which directly supports SHIP (PROMASOL supports SWH in

general, but not financially), neither is there support for pilot projects.

• Solar thermal projects (not CSP) are not mentioned in the National Energy Strategy
(MEMEE, 2010).

• Due to the structure of the SIE, large collective systems operated by an energy provider
are interesting where the SIE can invest directly.

Industrial

• Energy efficiency is rather low in Moroccan industry (RCREEE, 2010a).

62
Roof: C = Concrete, S = Sheets (metal); Solar share: L = low (<15 %), M = medium (15-50 %), H = High
(>50 %)

50
 • The major findings from previous studies on SHIP were confirmed (i) steam is the domi-
nant heat carrier, (ii) roofs are too small for high solar share (iii) and the roof construction
is often a further impedement. Moreover, (iv) only few companies mention environmental
values and (v) there is little awareness about the possibility of SHIP.

• There are great differences of DNI within Morocco (1800 kwh/m2 /a – 2600 kwh/m2 /a)
(Trieb et al., 2005). Also there is major uncertainty, Meteornom currently has only one
station with irradiation measurement63 .

• In energy intensive industries, which use CHP units, LFC can be used for the regeneration
of steam. However, since installations are rather complex integration will be difficult.

• Industrial zones for central steam supply are an interesting business model. They are
commonly less space constrained compared to industrial centres in urban areas. Moreover,
in new constructions energy efficiency is expected to be higher and proper roofs can be
constructed from the very beginning.

• As can be seen from Table 11 in the textile industry the average company is much smaller
compared to the food industry. Thus, only few companies will be capable of large invest-
ments as needed for SHIPc .

• In textile industry a comparatively higher share of the total energy demand can be covered
with the available roof area64 .

• Many fish companies complained that they can only produce around 300 days per year
due to insufficient supply. This makes economics for SHIPc much more difficult.

• Fish industry is often in absolute vicinity of the coast (less than 300 m) where DNI can
be reduced due to air humidity.

Thus, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) Energy prices are too low, but the differential
costs are small. (2) The characteristics of LFC (space efficiency and direct steam generation)
are important for SHIPc . (3) The low energy efficiency (EE) is an obstacle for the application
of SHIP. (4) Fish industry is less promising due to insufficient supply and vicinity to coast
(water vapour). (5) Textile industry can achieve higher solar fraction but most companies are
too small for large investments.
63
Assessed from the station map on the Meteonorm website on 02.11.2011;
http://meteonorm.com/support/toolbox/stations/
64
This tendency was found in all companies, however, a quantitative approach is not reasonable since it depends
on the exact process, the utilization and the way of construction.

51
4.2. Tunisia
”The state will undertake additional efforts in the next
decade to use the advantage of renewable energies...”
Former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali65

4.2.1. Introduction

The Republic of Tunisia is located in the centre of North Africa. It has an area of 162,155 km2
(see Figure 21) and a population of 10.5 million people. After more than 70 years of French rule
Tunisia became independent in 1956, 18 days after Morocco. Apart from the strong connection
to France due to colonialism, Tunisia also has close ties to Italy due to its vicinity (130 km).
The capital is Tunis, located in the north–west, where also most economic activity takes place.
Other economic centres are Sousse and Sfax. Tunisia has reserves in oil and gas as well as
phosphates – all located in the South. Moreover, Tunisia profits from the transfer of Algerian
gas to Europe. The GDP per capita in 2010 was 4,199 US$ and the HDI 0,69. In the north,
especially north–east, there is good rainfall but climate becomes very dry in the south.

Figure 21: Map of Tunisia; source: Lonely Planet

On 14th January 2011 former President Zine el-Abdine Ben Ali fled the country after ongoing
demonstrations. He was in power since 1987. In October 2011 the first free elections took place
where Tunisians voted a constitutional assembly. Another election is scheduled for 2013. At the

65
Quoted in the ”Plan Solaire Tunisien” - speech on 07.11.2007

52
time of writing the new government was not yet in place. Thus, it remains to be seen whether
the new leaders continue the old regimes political agenda, also in respect to RE. Due to the
revolution, tourism, the major source of foreign currency, declined and also several companies
with foreign management closed. Thus, unemployment and poverty rose and it will be the
major challenge for the government to ease the live of the poor. For RE this is important as
major reductions of energy subsidies are not expected in the short term and companies might
be reluctant to invest. On the Transparency International Index Tunisia ranks 73/183 (TI,
2011) and on the Global Competitiveness Index 40/142 (WEF, 2011). The currency in Tunisia
is the Tunisian Dinar (TD), 1 e ≈ 1.9TD.

4.2.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies

Tunisia has both oil and gas resources, though less than other countries in MENA. Currently
it can not fully satisfy its energy demand (Production / TPES = 82 %) and has to import
fossil fuels. However, this is rather to a constraint in extraction capacities and Tunisia actively
expands its capacities (AHK, 2011). Due to its gas reserves Tunisia also subsidies electricity
production by ≈ 20 % (AHK, 2011). Between 2003 and 2007 the Tunisian energy subsidies
rose from 111 million e to 889 million e (RCREEE, 2010b) and a rise of the oil price of 1 US$
costs Tunisia ≈ 21.7 million e (AHK, 2011). Even though efforts are undertaken to reduce the
subsidies it is unclear when it will happen. Tunisia has good potential for RE. For wind energy
it has a cost line of 1,400 km, for solar energy DNI reaches up to 2,600 kWh/m2 /a as shown in
Figure 22.

Figure 22: Direct normal irradiation in Tunisia (Trieb et al., 2005)

53
 Its economic potential for wind energy is 8 TWhel /year and 9244 TWhel /year for CSP (Trieb
et al., 2005). Tunisia started early to support RE, especially SWH and has the best developed
market for SWH in MENA today. In other technologies like wind or CSP it lacks behind its
neighbours but also has ambitious plans. Similar to Morocco Tunisia profits from its vicinity to
Europe (distance to Italy <130km). For SHIPc , the Tunisian potential is roughly 7.6 TWh66 .
If there will be an export of electricity from MENA to Europe Tunisia will play a central role.
In 2009, there was no CSP plant but wind turbines with a total capacity of 20 MW and an
area of 400,000 m2 SWH were installed.

4.2.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies

This section briefly describes the major institutions and legislations for RE in Tunisia67 . The
former government issued the Plan Solaire Tunisian (PST) in 2010 to reinforce the transi-
tion towards a higher share of RE. It is comprised of 40 projects which cover solar thermal,
photovoltaic but also wind and biomass projects. The project period is 2010 – 2016 and each
of the projects is already aligned with a budget estimation68 .

• Law 2004-72 states the three major objectives of the energy policy (i) energy saving, (ii)
RE, (iii) energy substitution and defines tasks and competences of the ”Agence Nationale
pour la Maitrise de l’Energie” (ANME). Article 14 mentions 4 priority areas, one is the
usage of solar thermal energy.

• Law 2009-7 allows companies to produce their own electricity in CHP units units and to
sell the rest (up to 30 %) to the ”Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz” (STEG).

• N° 2009-362 Sets the subsidies and modalities for investments in RE / EE, energy audits
and feasibility studies.

The Tunisian Ministry of Industry and Technology (MIT) (before 2010: Ministry of In-
dustry, Energy and Small and Medium Enterprises) is the major political body in the Tunisian
energy market. It is principal stakeholders of the other relevant institutions mentioned below
and developed the Tunisian Solar Plan. At the same time it also is responsible for the activities
in the petroleum sector. This eases integration, especially in the electricity sector but can also
weaken the support for RE.

66
Industrial energy demand of 1.801 Mtoe (IEA), of which 64 % is process heat and a share of 57 % in the
range of 100◦ C – 400◦ C
67
For a complete list of legislation see: http://www.anme.nat.tn/index.asp?pId=53 (last accessed 05.01.2012)
68
For all projects see: http://www.riaed.net/IMG/article_PDF/article_2475.pdf (last accessed 01.02.2012)

54
The Agence Nationale pour la Maitrise de l’Energie is the major agency for RE in
Tunisia. It is under supervision of the MIT and its major responsibilities are (i) to propose
financial incentive schemes, (ii) to develop and monitor demonstration projects, (iii) capacity
building, (iv) to contribute to scientific research and (v) to manage the Fonds National de
Maîtrise de l’Energie (FNME).

The Fonds National de Maîtrise de l’Energie subsidies investments in RE and EE as

well as feasibility studies. It is financed through a duty on the registration of cars and an
import tax on air conditioning units. The financial support rates can be found in Table 13
below.

The Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz is the state owned gas and electricity
supplier. Even though in 1996 the electricity generation was liberalized (AHK, 2011) the STEG
still owns around 85 % of the installed capacity. The Tunisian electricity prices are subsidized
indirectly since the STEG can buy gas below world market prices. The electricity tariffs can
be found in Appendix A.

The Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz Energies Renouvelables (STEG

ER) was founded in 2009 to support large projects, mainly in solar and wind energy. So far
no projects are realized but STEG ER studies the potential of RE in Tunisia jointly with the
Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII). Similar to the MIT fossil energy and RE are handled in
the same institution which can impede the development of RE.

The PROgramme SOLair (PROSOL) was jointly developed by Tunisia and the UNEP.
Its objective was to support the market for solar thermal collectors and its innovative approach
gained international approval. PROSOL is a financial support scheme comprised of a subsidy
(up to 57 e per m2 ) and a soft loan for small SWH. The subsidy is directly paid to the sup-
plier and the credit is paid back via the electricity bill of the STEG. After the introduction of
PROSOL the annual installed capacity more than doubled (Menichetti, 2007). Currently, in
the third phase, the project shall be extended to apply also to the tertiary sector.
Furthermore, the Agence Francaise de Développement (AFD) provided a credit line of 40 mil-
lion e to give soft loans for projects in RE and EE. Credits are available from three local
banks69 and have an interest rate of ≈ 4%. Moreover, there are also tax and customs reduction
for RE products.

69
BIAT (http://www.biat.com.tn), BT (http://www.bt.com.tn), UBCI (http://www.ubcinet.net/fr/)

55
 Table 13: Support rates for renewable energies in Tunisia
Product rate in % ceiling in TD ceiling in e
Energy audits and preliminary consultancy 70 30,000 15,970
Demonstration projects 50 100,000 53,220
Inmaterial project costs 70 70,000 37.250
RE / EE (consumption < 4,000 toe/a) 20 100,000 53.220
RE / EE (consumption 4,000 -7,000 toe/a) 20 200,000 106,440
RE / EE (consumption > 4,000 toe/a) 20 250,000 133,050
Industrial Solar Water Heaters 30 150 (per m2 ) 80 (per m2 )

4.2.4. Industry in Tunisia

In 2008 the Tunisian industry consumed 1.801 Mtoe of which 46 % were gas, 28 % electricity
and 26 % oil70 . Major exports are petroleum products 16 % and clothing 13 % whereas major
imports petroleum products 12 % and motor cars 3 % (United Nations Comtrade, 2011b). The
sector contributions in respect to GDP and employment are shown in Table 14, further data
on the selected sectors is summarized in Table 15.

Table 14: Economic data for Tunisia70

Indicator agriculture industry services
% of total employment (2010) 17.7 33 49.3
% of GDP (2010) 8.9 31.3 59.8

Textile industry
The textile industry is one of the major pillars of the Tunisian economy. More than 80 % of
the textile companies work solely for export, providing jobs and foreign currency, and 67 % of
the export go to Italy, France and Germany (FIPA, 2008). The export to the EU between 2000
and 2009 grew from 1.8 to 2.6 billion e71 .

Food industry
There is also a large food industry in Tunisia, however, of less importance than textile. Espe-
cially in the northern regions there is sufficient water for cultivation. The major export product
from the food sector is olive oil, accounting for 43 % (Foreign Investment Promotion Agency

70
data from EIA, see Appendix E
70
Tunisian institute for statistics http://www.ins.nat.tn/indexen.php (last accessed 29.01.2012)
71
see http://www.thinktunisia.tn/images/telechargement/ITHENG.pdf (last accessed 02.02.2012)

56
(FIPA), 2008). The fish industry is small compared to Morocco since it has no access to the
Atlantic. There is a strong industry for canned food, however, since processing varies due to
harvesting times it is less suitable for SHIP. There is also a substantial dairy industry with an
annual production of 1 billion litres72 .

Table 15: Overview of selected Tunisian industrial sectors73

sector companies employees turnover % of exports listed at
in million TD stock exchange
food (total) 1,027 (1) 68,114 (1) 9,936 7.5 (1) 3
dairy 36 – – – 1
fish 80 – –
beverages 61 – – – 1
fruits & vegetables 68 – – –
textile & leather 2,575 (1) 228,155 (1) 6,755 (1) 25.3 (1)

Solar cooling
Similar to Morocco the potential for solar cooling is strongest in the food sector. Currently,
the situation is characterized by insufficient storehouses and low quality. The low prices of gas
make solar cooling less competitive since absorption machines can also be operated with gas.
Fish farms on land are and interesting application for solar cooling. They have high energy
demands and need cooling in summer and heating in winter. Furthermore, the temperature
spectrum is small and thus, chillers can operate at high COP.

Automotive suppliers
Within Tunisia there is a strong industry supplying the automotive industries. Products for
example are cables, cable systems and plastic components. However, as mentioned above even
if the industries have a high thermal demand they cover it with elelctricity.

4.2.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Tunisia

This section summarizes the qualitative findings of the analysis of SHIPc in Tunisia, an overview
is provided in Table 16. Again, the results, especially the solar share, are estimations. In
addition to the findings from the company assessment the political situation in Tunisia has to
be taken into account. In respect to RE and investment climate it is still unclear in which way
the new government will continue.
72
see http://www.tunisianindustry.nat.tn/en/download/cepi/iaa05.pdf (last accessed 20.01.2012)
73
data from Tunisian agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (1)

57
 Table 16: Results from company visits in Tunisia74

process temperature in ◦ C

supply temperature in ◦ C

hours of production
days of production
product / process

heat carrier
solar share
roof

fuel
company
Textile 1 Dying 140 C/S M 175 steam 365 12 gas
Textile 2 Washing 110 S L 150 steam 330 24 gas
Textile 3 Dying 140 S L 180 steam 365 24 gas
Textile 4 Dying 130 S H 180 steam 330 10 gas
Textile 5 Washing 110 S H 175 steam 365 24 gas
Food 1 Soft drinks 170 S L 230 steam 365 8 gas
Plastic Cables, sheets 200 All heat demand covered with electricity

Institutional

• There is a very good and proven institutional framework. Tunisia even has a project
focussing on solar process heat.

• Tunisia supports SHIP with direct subsidies, soft loans and support for feasibility studies
and pilot projects.

• The PST mentions SHIP explicitly and has also projects for solar drying and solar cooling.

• There are great differences of DNI within Tunisia, DNI ranges from 1800 to 2600 kwh/m2 /a
(Trieb et al., 2005). Also there is major uncertainty, Meteornom currently has two stations
with irradiation measurement75 .

74
Roof: C = Concrete, S = Sheets (metal); Solar share: L = low (<15 %), M = medium (15-50 %), H = High
(>50 %)
75
Assessed from the station map on the Meteonorm website on 20.01.2012;
http://meteonorm.com/support/toolbox/stations/

58
Industrial

• Gas is the dominant energy source in Tunisia. The kWhth (only fuel, without equipment
and losses) costs around 0.014 e (natural gas), 0.016 e (heavy fuel oil) and 0.04 e
(liquefied petroleum gas).

• Like in Morocco, the major findings from previous studies on SHIP were confirmed (i)
steam is the dominant heat carrier, (ii) roofs are too small for high solar share (iii) and
the roof construction is often a further impedement. Moreover, (iv) only few companies
mention environmental values and (v) there is little awareness about the possibility of
SHIP.

• Very strong textile industry, but most companies are small. Still, many companies have
a capacity beyond 1 MW.

• No major industry in the south were DNI values are substantially higher.

• Support for CHP can make SHIP more difficult.

• Not all companies have access to the as grid. However, the STEG actively expands the
gas grid (see Appendix B).

• Already several desalination plants76 . This can be an interesting application in the future.

Thus, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) Energy prices are very low but there is
good support for SHIP. (2) Again, the characteristics of LFC (space efficiency and direct steam
generation) are important for SHIPc . (3) Also, low EE can be an obstacle for the application
of SHIP.

4.3. Comparison of countries

Both, Morocco and Tunisia, are newly industrialized countries. Still, in Tunisia the industrial
sector is relatively stronger (in terms of employment and GDP) and also the GDP per capita
is higher. Both countries have ambitious plans for RE and a substantial potential for SHIPc .
Morocco focuses on large projects for electricity generation, while Tunisia concentrates more on
smaller projects77 . In respect to SWH Morocco only does capacity building and raises awareness,
76
In July 2010 a 50,000m3 /day contract was signed with an industrial consortium. see: http://www.
desalination.biz/news/news_story.asp?src=nl&id=5431 (last accessed 05.02.2012)
77
At the time of writing Nur Energies announced that it plans to build a 2 GW CSP plant in Tunisia. http://
www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/23509/tunisia-plans-2-gw-csp-plant-to-power-europe/ (last accessed
04.02.2012)

59
Tunisia supports SWH financially. This is one reason why the newly installed collector are in
Tunisia is twice as big as in Morocco (Epp, 2011b), even though Tunisia only has a third of the
population. In respect to energy supply, Morocco has much less fossil fuels and the Moroccan
industry also has substantially higher energy prices. The Moroccan support mechanism via
investments from the SIE is interesting for collective systems. However, they are very difficult
to realize. Both countries have good DNI (especially in the south), but the lack of good ground
date is a severe impediment for SHIPc . In respect to the industry there are sectoral findings.
The Tunisian textile employs more people despite a smaller population. Also the Tunisian
textile exports to the EU grew in the last decade while the Moroccans declined. Thus, the
result is ambiguous. Energy costs favour Morocco for SHIP, institutions rather Tunisia.

60
5. Economic and institutional assessment of solar process
heat in Middle East and North Africa
This chapter is comprised of two parts. First, the major variables influencing the economic
analysis of SHIPc will be introduced and a sensitivity analysis performed. Afterwards, a ref-
erence scenario for DSG is calculated for Morocco and Tunisia. A scenario for solar cooling is
only discussed, due to missing data.

5.1. Variables and sensitivity analysis

Major variables
Table 17 lists the major variables for the economic assessment of SHIPc , their reference value
as well as minimum and maximum. The list is not comprehensive, for example the land costs
or the impact of the solar field on the boiler efficiency are not mentioned. Some of the as-

Table 17: Variables for economic assessment

Variable Reference Minimum Maximum Min - Max in %
Price per m2 in e 400 300 700 75 – 175
Subsidy per m2 in % 10 0 20 0 – 200
DNI kWh/m2 /a 2000 1700 2500 85 – 125
Annual yields as % of DNI 40 35 45 87.5 – 112.5
Operation & maintenance (O&M) in % 2.5 1 3 40 – 120
Price increase O&M in % 3 2 4 67 – 133
Interest rate in % 5 2 8 40 – 160
Price per kWhth in e 0.03 0.015 0.05 50 – 167
Boiler efficiency in % 80 70 90 88 – 112

sumptions need further commenting. First, the price of 400 e per m2 is rather low. It was not
chosen in respect to installed boiler capacities in industry (price depends on installed capacity)
but due to the fact that smaller systems are not feasible at the moment. Second, the ”annual
yields in % of DNI” are also rather low compared with the efficiency from Figure 5. They are
based on simulations from Industrial Solar and can be explained by integrating the instanta-
neous efficiencies over the year78 . Third, the boiler efficiency is assumed to be 80 %. During
the company visits some boilers were rather new (less than 5 years) others were more than
35 years old. Moreover, the best efficiency is often not achieved since boilers are not running
78
A substantial fraction of the annual DNI (in kWhth ) comes at low intensities (low W/m2 ), for example after
sunrise / sunset, and can not be used.

61
at full capacities. In an assessment of Moroccan boilers in the fish meal industry the average
efficiency was found to be 78 % (CDM, 2006). Moreover, it is assumed that the lifetime is 20
years, that the system is paid completely by credit (equity = 0 %), that the credit is paid back
over the whole life time and that the discount rate equals the interest rate. The assumed price
per kWhel , necessary for the calculation of the CSHG is 0.06 e.

Sensitivity analysis - single varying input

As outlined in Section 2.4 the impact of various input factors on the IRRM (see Equation 6)
and the CSHG (see Equation 8) is assessed. The input factors were introduced in Table 17.
First, a single varying input analysis is done. Therefore, the objective functions are solved with
the reference values from table 17 and the factors are changed independently. The relative
changes of IRRM and CSHG in response to the varying input factors are depicted in Figure 23
and Figure 24. The changes are shown in a linear interpolation. Even though the relation is
not necessarily linear it is sufficient to identify the relative importance of various factors. With
the values from Table 2.4 the following results are obtained (for calculation see Appendix D):
• IRRM = 6.13 %

• CSHG = 0.0125 e

50
Change of IRRM in %

−50

.
.
−100 −50 −25 −10 0 10 25 50 100
Change of single variables in %

. .
Price of collector per m2 . O &. M . .
Interest . . fuel
Price fossil
. .
Subsidy . .
Boiler efficiency . .
DNI . .
Efficiency
. .
Change in O&M . .
Prince increase fossil fuels

Figure 23: One variable sensitivity analysis of IRRM

62
Change of CSHG in %

50

−50
.
.
−100 −50 −25 −10 0 10 25 50 100
Change of single variables in %

. .
Price of collector per m2 . O &. M . .
Interest
. .
Subsidy . . .
DNI .
Efficiency

Figure 24: One variable sensitivity analysis of CSHG

There are major differences in the impact. The CSHG are only considering the costs for heat
production. Thus, (i) the fossil fuel price, (ii) the CAAGR of the fossil fuel price, (iii) the
efficiency of the boiler and (iv) the change of O&M costs79 have no impact and are not included
in Figure 24. Unlike in the calculation of the IRRM the consumption of electricity is considered
explicitly in the CSHG . A price of 0.06 e per kWhel and a ratio of 1 kWhel per 50 kWhth is
assumed, according to the VDI (VDI, 2011). It is important to note that all the results only
hold in relation to the given reference scenario. Changing the interest rate for example, with an
efficiency of 40 % brings different results compared to the case with an efficiency of 45 %. Still,
the relative importance of the variables remains80 . As explained above the IRR / IRRM should
be the decisive factor for investments. The single varying input analysis brings the following
results:

• The price of the collector has a greater impact than the efficiency (which is reasonably
obtainable). Thus, reducing costs is probably more effective than increasing the efficiency.

• The impact of the interest rate is counter-intuitive. The reason why higher interest rates
increase the IRR is that the saved money is invested at ibar .
79
The costs hold only for t = 1, and a price escalation due to inflation has to be considered.
80
This is the case for the present analysis but is not necessarily the case for more complex and interdependent
factors. A mathematical proof can not be provided here.

63
 • Taking the comparatively low impact of subsidy into consideration it can be a reasonable
approach to look for spots with very high DNI, instead of high subsidies. Even within a
country DNI can vary by more than 30 % (see Figure 18 and Figure 21). However, for
pilot projects subsidies might also be even higher than 20 %.

• Costs reductions offer the greatest potential. Especially when comparing to costs esti-
mations from CSP projects it can be seen that there is vast potential for a reduction in
costs81 . SHIPc projects will not be able to compete with CSP on prices per m2 , yet the
gap can be narrowed if demand, and thereby also production capacity, increases.

Sensitivity analysis - two varying inputs

In a next step the IRRM is assessed when two variables are changed simultaneously. From
Figure 23 it is obvious that the (i) interest rate, (ii) the price of fuel, (iii) the CAAGR of
fuel, (iv) the DNI and (v) the collector price per m2 have the strongest impact on the IRRM .
When assessing an investment, ex ante information on interest rate, price of fuel as well as
the collector price per m2 are quite reliable. Thus, the input factors with highest uncertainty
and greatest impact are the CAAGR of fuel and the DNI. In a next step, both will be varied
simultaneously, the results are shown in Table 18. Under good conditions the IRRM can exceed
10 %.

Table 18: Results from sensitivity analysis of IRRM in % with two varying variables
CAAGR of fossil fuel in %
3 4.5 5.5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1600 2.37 3.46 4.16 4.51 5.20 5.89 6.57 7.25 7.93
DNI in kWh/m2 /a

1700 2.88 3.93 4.62 4.96 5.64 6.31 6.99 7.66 8.33
1800 3.35 4.37 5.04 5.38 6.04 6.71 7.37 8.04 8.70
1900 3.77 4.77 5.43 5.76 6.42 7.08 7.74 8.39 9.05
2000 4.17 5.15 5.80 6.13 6.78 7.43 8.08 8.73 9.38
2100 4.54 5.50 6.15 6.47 7.11 7.75 8.40 9.05 9.70
2200 4.88 5.84 6.47 6.79 7.42 8.06 8.70 9.35 9.99
2300 5.21 6.15 6.78 7.09 7.72 8.35 8.99 9.63 10.28
2400 5.52 6.45 7.07 7.38 8.00 8.63 9.27 9.90 10.54
2500 5.81 6.73 7.34 7.65 8.27 8.90 9.53 10.16 10.80

81
First, statically through economies of scale. Second, dynamically due to the learning curve.

64
5.2. Reference scenarios
Within this section two reference scenarios (DSG & solar cooling) are discussed for both Mo-
rocco and Tunisia, whereas only the steam scenario is calculated. Thus, this section addresses
three major questions. First, what is the actual feasibility of SHIPc projects in Morocco and
Tunisia respectively? Second, which country is more favourable taking energy costs, DNI and
support schemes into account? Another interesting question, which application is more feasible,
steam generation or solar cooling, can not be answered. To respect the variations in DNI (ac-
tual and measurement errors) the scenarios are discussed for DNI data provided for the major
industrial areas (Casablanca and Tunis) as well as for identical values of 2000 kWh/m2 /a. The
underlying assumptions are the reference values from Table 17, the differences, in respect to
the reference values, are summarized in Table 19.

Table 19: Differences in reference scenarios81

Reference Casablanca Morocco2000 Tunis Tunisia2000
Interest rate in % 5 8 8 5 (soft loan) 5 (soft loan)
Subsidy in % 10 0 0 20 20
Price e /kWhth in e 0.03 0.035 0.035 0.016 0.016
Price e /kWhel in e 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
DNI in kWh/m2 /a 2000 1798 2000 1928 2000

Scenario for Steam Production

For the steam scenario it is assumed that installation is done at a large factory with constant
demand. Thus, a 4 MW collector field without storage is installed. For both locations, Morocco
and Tunisia, the same installation is assumed. The total investment costs for the steam scenario
are calculated with CINV = area (8000 m2 ) * price per m2 (400 e ) = 3.2 million e, including
transport, installation and integration. Moreover, it is assumed that all energy gained can be
used (production 365 days, no loss at peak times). As can be seen in Table 20, the IRRM is in
all scenarios below the assumed interest rate of 8 % Morocco and 5 % Tunisia. Thus, SHIPc is
currently not feasible in these countries (and therefore most likely also not in the other MENA
countries with substantially lower energy costs). Again attention has to be drawn to the role
of the interest rate in IRRM . In the case of Tunisia for example, IRRM could be even lower if
the income from the saved energy is invested at higher rates than the 5 %. If a soft loan would
be available in Morocco feasible projects could already be realized.
81
DNI data from Meteonorm 6.1

65
 Table 20: IRRM in the reference scenarios for steam production
Reference Casablanca Morocco2000 Tunis Tunisia2000
IRRM in % 6.13 7.12 7.88 1.89 2.86
CSHG in e 0.0125 0.0153 0.0138 0.0119 0.0115

Qualitative description of a scenario for Solar Cooling

Solar thermal cooling is still not well established and most projects are comparatively small. The
biggest system is installed in Singapore, with a capacity of 1.575 MW82 . Also in the literature
most studies focus on small systems (below 100 kW), for example (Eicker and Pietruschka,
2009), (Hartmann et al., 2011), (Mateus and Oliveira, 2009). Due to the cost structure of
LFC (see Figure 6) they are not suitable to power small absorption chillers. However, for larger
systems concentrating collectors are very interesting. Multi-effect chillers can increase the COP
above 2 (Zahler et al., 2011), making an efficient use of the primary energy. A reference scenario
can not be done here, due to missing data. First, no literature covers system costs (chiller,
storage) for systems above 1 MW. Second, also the load profile of the application has a crucial
effect. Eicker found that the suitable size of the solar field for a given annual energy demand
can vary by a factor of two only due to the load profile (Eicker and Pietruschka, 2009). An
interesting system was installed in Qatar, where LFC power a double-effect absorption chiller
(Zahler et al., 2011), yet no data on the economics was published. Large scale solar cooling
systems are a promising application for concentrating collectors, especially in the industry.
Yet, more research is needed to identify suitable customers and to optimize installations (for
example in respect to storage).

82
http://www.solid.at/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=134&Itemid=147&lang=en (last ac-
cessed 07.01.2012)

66
5.3. Institutions for solar industrial process heat in the Middle East and
North Africa
Most RE products today are still more expensive compared to conventional solutions. Yet, since
they reduce negative and strengthen positive externalities83 (e.g. pollution and job creation)
they are often supported by a variety of mechanisms. A comprehensive overview over the
support schemes for RE in MENA can not be given here due to the variety of technologies and
support schemes. Thus, the focus is only on solar thermal technologies (without conversion
to electricity). In domestic applications the thermal energy demand is lower compared to
Europe (hot water & space heating) due to the climate. Nevertheless, there is a huge technical
potential, especially for process heat or other institutions with constant demand. In most
MENA countries RE still play only a minor role and, since the efforts are often concentrated on
few large scale projects (e.g. in Morocco), there is little support for SWH / SHIP. The major
support mechanisms for SWH are (i) direct investment subsidies (for producer or consumers),
(ii) soft loans, (iii) tariff reductions, (iv) awareness raising, (v) market building (e.g. quality
standards). Building codes (minimum solar heat generation) are another way to support SWH,
however, they are not listed since they do not apply for concentrating technologies due to lower
temperatures. Two more support schemes are described below.
The Clean Development Mechanism was created under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reduce CO2 emissions. Investors can finance
emission reductions at any location and trade their reduction certificates. However, due to
high administrative costs this is only feasible for large projects which set of several thousand
tons of CO2 per year. While this is too much for domestic SWH, it can be reached by SHIP84 .
The Bonus Model (Bürger, 2007) is a support scheme which provides a fixed bonus payment
per kWhth , similar to the feed-in tariff for electricity. The heat is not injected in a central grid
but rather produced and consumed locally. This makes it very difficult for policy-makers to
set appropriate rates since costs vary regionally and over time. A contracting approach can
overcome financing obstacles when industrial investors demand low payback times (Lauterbach
et al., 2011a). However, it is a major challenge to find institutions with the capacity to monitor
and reward energy yields. Still, for industrial sized installations this can be done. Even though
it is a very interesting mechanism it is probably not suitable for MENA at the moment due to
the institutional challenges.

83
Externalities are effects which accrue not to the owner of a project.
84
In Morocco a CDM project of 5 MWth of LFC for steam production was planed, but not re-
alized http://cdm.unfccc.int/filestorage/8/Z/S/8ZSYGRHIPUQMWXV2407NLT5D63CEFJ/PDD.pdf?t=
ZjJ8bHg2Z2w5fDCgszriU7VEwxgwts34w2zp (last accessed 02.01.2012)

67
5.3.1. Support schemes in Middle East and North Africa

This chapter builds mainly on a study by the Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit
(GTZ) (GTZ, 2009a) comparing the situation in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia,
as well as Algeria (Epp, 2011a) and Morocco (Epp, 2011b), (UNDP, 2011). The other countries
mentioned above were not included, but apart from Turkey, they also do not have substantial
SWH support or industry to the authors knowledge. Algeria for example recently started its
project ALSOL (Epp, 2011a). In its first pilot phase it supported 400 domestic systems, and
can not be evaluated yet - therefore it is also not mentioned in Table 21. The evaluation
whether there is a certain support scheme, especially for awareness raising or market building,
is to a certain degree subjective (for Morocco and Tunisia there are substantial efforts through
PROSOL and PROMASOL as described above). Turkey has a strong SWH industry and higher
energy prices and should therefore be assessed separately.

Table 21: Overview of national support mechanisms

Customs reduction
Consumer subsidy

Awareness raising
Producer subsidy

Market builing
Soft loan

Country
√ √
Algeria no no no no
Egypt no no no no no no
√
Jordan no no no no no
√ √
Lebanon no no no no
√ √ √ √
Morocco no no
√
Syria no no no no no
√ √ √ √ √
Tunisia no

5.3.2. Analysis of support schemes

Since SHIP is a special case first the general framework for solar thermal technologies is dis-
cussed. As can be seen in Table 21 only Tunisia has a comprehensive support which also
explains the great installed area of solar collectors. Due to low energy prices and income solar
thermal technologies need direct financial support and appropriate financing schemes. From a

68
macro perspective this is still reasonable since also fossil fuel prices are subsidized. Moreover,
as can be seen in Tunisia, a new industry can develop. However, in order to harvest this poten-
tial appropriate institutions are crucial. Tunisia provides a very good example for a successful
approach which can probably be adopted to other MENA countries.

Institutions for SHIP

Tunisia is the only MENA country which explicitly addresses SHIP. To develop appropriate
institutions certain aspects have to be taken into account.
• SHIP generally needs bigger installations compared to domestic applications. This pro-
vides good reasons for focused institutions due to higher investment costs.

• Due to high demand investment can be quite large. This has to be considered in support
schemes.

• Industry has highest demands on reliability and a constant supply at constant conditions
which makes integration more complex.

• Decision makers have higher expectations on IRR since they compare with other invest-
ments.

• Awareness campaigns for domestic applications commonly do not address industry.

For these reasons it can not be expected that a substantial market for SHIP develops with-
out specifically tailored institutions. Yet, at the same time the constant high energy demand
provides good reasons to support SHIP. Lorenzen (Lorenzen, 2011) made a life cycle assess-
ment of a medium sized LFC system in South Africa and found that in less than 200 days
the system would economise the CO2eq emissions. Even though the results can not be directly
transferred they are an indicator for the energetic amortization. For the reasons mentioned
above specifically SHIP focussed institutions are recommended. Another reason for SHIP spe-
cific programmes is to ensure that SHIP does not crowd out efficiency improvements. When
the efficiency is low, there is little reasons to support solar energy which is later wasted in
the process. Programmes similar to the Moroccan FODEP which (i) address only industry,
(ii) have sufficient fund for large investments, (iii) are backed by soft loans from international
donor organizations and have (iv) comprehensive guidelines for applicability can be successful
in tapping the potential of SHIP.
Collective systems as a promising business model?
Whether or not a substantial amount of the thermal energy demand in industry will be gener-
ated by the sun depends not only on the technical details but also on the business model. One

69
possibility is to develop collective systems in industrial areas. This has three major advantages.
First, these systems have lower costs per m2 due to their size (see Figure 6, Figure 23 and
Figure 24). Second, the heterogeneous demand of various companies levels the demand curve
(same energy form at different times, different energy forms e.g. heat and cooling) and thereby
eases integration. Third, other financing sources can be used which might reduce financing
costs. The approach of the Moroccan SIE is a very good example where only collective sys-
tems can make use of the funds. However, at the same time collective systems have inherent
challenges. Questions like the following have to be addressed: What is the right operating
institution? How can competing companies agree on common energy supply? Which industries
fit together? Where are suitable industrial areas in terms of area, DNI etc.?

70
6. Summary and conclusions
This sections summarizes the major findings of the study and gives recommendations for policy
makers and the private sector. The country specific results from Section 4.1.5 and Section 4.2.5
are not completely repeated. The study was done against a background where (i) society is
faced with several energy challenges which can be overcome by RE, (ii) the use of solar ther-
mal energy in industry has advantages over domestic applications, (iii) suitable concentrating
technologies are available and (iv) MENA has sufficient DNI for their application. Thus, there
is a substantial potential for SHIPc in MENA, of around 201 TWh. In the introduction it was
already shown, that the topic also has a social dimension. If countries do not manage address
the energy challenges, for example by shifting towards RE, this can impede their social and
economic development in the mid to long term.
Chapter 2 introduced the basics of solar energy, LFC, integration of SHIP and tools for a
financial analysis necessary for this study. In Chapter 3 the energy situation in MENA was
assessed, the potential for SHIP estimated and the countries compared. Morocco and Tunisia,
were identified as most promising for SHIP in the short term. Furthermore, several industrial
sectors were introduced which have a high potential for SHIPc . In Chapter 4 the situation of
SHIPc in Morocco and Tunisia, was examined comprehensively taking into account social, eco-
nomic, industrial and technical issues. One finding was that there are major differences in the
condition of an industrial sector. The Moroccan textile sector, for example, is on decline and the
Moroccan fish industry suffers under shortage of supply. In Tunisia, the situation is influenced
by the revolution. Factors like these have an impact on the openness of companies to invest
in SHIP. Moreover, several companies were visited and examined on the potential of SHIPc .
The results of the company visits provide an insight into the situation of SHIPc in Morocco
and Tunisia. However, results can not be directly transferred to other companies. One process,
the production of bitumen roofs, was identified as highly promising for SHIPc in MENA (the
process description was put in Section 3.6) which was not mentioned in earlier studies. Also
the production of fish meal can be interesting for SHIPc . In Chapter 5 an economic assessment
of SHIPc in Morocco and Tunisia was done. The sensitivity analysis elaborated the impact of
the various factors. Apart from the costs per m2 , the uncertainty of DNI and the CAAGR
of fossil fuels are a challenge in developing suitable business models. The reference scenarios
demonstrated that without subsidies SHIPc is not feasible, neither in Morocco nor in Tunisia.
The institutional assessment (see Section 5.3.1) showed that the institutional framework for
SHIP in MENA is, apart from Tunisia, insufficient. Moreover, there are major differences in
the institutions. The Moroccan approach favours large systems, for SHIP this could imply

71
collective systems for industrial parks. This has to be taken into account by companies offering
SHIP solutions.
The major findings of other studies on SHIP were confirmed, especially the major challenges
as listed in Section 3.7. As explained in the introduction, the paper builds on the hypothesis
that LFC have major advantages for SHIPc over other concentrating technologies, mainly PTC.
It was not the objective of the study to compare them in detail. Nevertheless, higher space
efficiency, the relative ease of roof constructions (wind and weight) and advantages in DSG
confirmed the hypothesis.

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads

A analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threads (SWOT) is a good mean to
summarize key results. The objective of this study, to assess the potential of LFC for SHIPc
in MENA, is very comprehensive since also industrial and institutional aspects are considered.
The SWOT analysis thus is on the macro level, (dis-) advantages of LFC compared to other
technologies are mentioned but not in detail.

Table 22: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads of LFC in MENA

Strengths
+ Potential for large reduction in fossil fuel
consumption
+ Advantages of LFC for process heat
+ Very high DNI in MENA
+ Higher potential of SHIPc than SHIP
Opportunities
+ Development of new industry for SHIP
+ Long term competitive advantage due to
low energy prices
Weaknesses
- Technology still expensive
- LFC still less common due to dominance of
PTC in CSP
- SHIP more difficult to support compared to
feed-in tariffs for electricity
- Non-concentrating technologies easier to op-
erate
Threads
- Major added value abroad due to missing
capacities
- More expensive in the short term
- Crowding out of other technologies (e.g.
wind) which might be mire cost competitive.

Recommendations for suitable industries

All industries are faced with the challenge to guarantee a reliable and cost effective energy
supply. Due to the rise of fossil fuel prices RE will soon be cost competitive. For companies
an energy audit is the first step to understand their demand. Increasing the efficiency is most

72
often the cheapest method. Still, it is reasonable to consider the usage of SHIP early. First,
when new plants are constructed it is easy to build roofs which allow solar energy collection.
Second, also in the choice of the boiler it is reasonable to keep in mind the integration of SHIP.
Finally, the costs of land might be a reason when selecting new production spots. If costs are
low, energy can be collected on the ground.

Recommendations for producer of SHIP equipment

As was shown above in the country analysis a comprehensive approach is necessary to identify
promising companies. This includes not only an assessment of the industries and sub-sectors,
but national DNI data and subsidies. Due to the varying yields over the day processes with
included storage are very promising, as for example bitumen processing. Even though large
collective systems for several companies are an interesting opportunity they are probably dif-
ficult to realize in the short term. Thus, the focus should rather be on very big companies. A
suitable indicator can be whether a company is listed at the stock exchange, for Morocco and
Tunisia the listed companies are shown in Appendix C. Taking into account the results from
the sensitivity analysis, cost reductions are of greater importance than an increase in efficiency.

Recommendations for policy makers

The high and constant energy demand in industry is a major advantage over domestic ap-
plications of solar thermal energy, especially in the climate of MENA. Unfortunately, most
companies are not aware of these technologies. Thus, (i) awareness raising is important. The
comparison of the Moroccan and Tunisian programs for SWH showed (ii) that there should be
direct financial support, and soft loans. For very large systems contracting models are attractive
since they offer secure investments for financiers and take away large investments for industry.
Thus, (iii) a suitable institutional framework for contracting models is beneficial. It is also
important (iv) to have support schemes focused on industry in order to avoid that RE crowd
out more effective investments in EE. Furthermore, to realize SHIP projects it is important (v)
to invest in capacity building, especially in the know how of planning and installing complex
systems. As the uncertainty of DNI data is a major impediment (vi) ground measurements
in major industrial areas reduce uncertainties. Finally, (vii) pilot projects and more detailed
studies should be conducted in industries with the greatest potential (in respect to demand,
sector condition and process).

73
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82
List of Figures
1. Model of a linear Fresnel collector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2. Crucial planes in linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3. Astigamatism in linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4. Monthly average yields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5. Thermal efficiency of linear Fresnel Collector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
6. Cost function of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
7. Daily yield profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
8. Integration of solar collectors in processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
9. Thermal storage concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
10. Steam accumulator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
11. Fire-tube boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
12. High speed steam generator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
13. Energy consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
14. Industrial energy demand in Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
15. Final energy consumption of industrial sectors in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
16. Temperature distribution for European industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
17. Energy demand in US textile industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
18. Map of Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
19. Moroccan petroleum subsidies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
20. Direct normal irradiation in Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
21. Map of Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
22. Direct normal irradiation in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
23. One variable sensitivity analysis of IRRM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
24. One variable sensitivity analysis of CSHG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

List of Tables
1. Differences in DNI data from various institutions for MENA . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2. Differences in DNI data from various institutions for MENA . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3. Comparison of boiler concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4. Outputs in poly-generation at various temperature levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
5. Energy demand and CO2 emissions in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
6. Sustainability criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

83
7. Crucial indicators for country selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
8. Thermal processes in the dairy sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
9. Overfiew of solar cooling technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
10. Economic data for Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
11. Overview of selected Moroccan industrial sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
12. Results from company visits in Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
13. Support rates for renewable energies in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
14. Economic data for Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
15. Overview of selected Tunisian industrial sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
16. Results from company visits in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
17. Variables for economic assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
18. Results from sensitivity analysis of IRRM with two varying variables . . . . . . . 64
19. Differences in reference scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
20. IRRM in the reference scenarios for steam production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
21. Overview of national support mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
22. SWOT Analysis of LFC in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

84
List of Abbreviations
q̇ thermal output of receiver

ΘL longitudinal angle

ΘT transversal angle

ΘZ zenith angle

ϵ emissivity

η opt optical efficiency

η th thermal efficiency

γ azimuth angle

ϕpr inclination angle of the primary receivers

σ Stefan-Boltzmann constant 5.67 * 10-8 W/m2 K4

a annum

Apr area of primary receivers

Aabs absorber area

Aap aperture area

ADEREE Agence nationale pour le développement des énergies renouvelables et de l’efficacité

énergétique
National Agency for the development of renewable energies and energy efficiency

AFD Agence Francaise de Développement

French Development Agency

AHK Deutsche Auslandshandelskammer

German Chamber of Commerce

AMISOLE Association Maroccaine des Industrie Solaires et Eoliennes

Moroccan Association for Solar and Wind Industry

85
ANME Agence Nationale pour la Maîtrise de l’Énergie
National Agency for Energy Conservation

ARMA Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association

BMWI Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie

Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology

BP Beyond Petroleum

BWA Bitumen Waterproofing Association

C Celsius

CCons Costs for consumption (e.g. electricity to drive pumps and motors)

CINV Costs for investment

CkWh(el) Costs for kWh of electricity

CO&M Costs for operation and maintenance

CSHG Costs for solar heat generation

CAAGR Compound average annual growth rate

CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

CDER Centre de développement des énergies renouvelables

Centre for Development of Renewable Energies

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CF Cash flow

CHP Combined Heat and Power

CO2eq Carbon dioxide equivalents

CO2 Carbon dioxide

COP Coefficient of performance

CPC Compound parabolic concentrating (collector)

86
CR Concentration ratio

CSP Concentrated solar power

Dh Dirham; Currency in Morocco. 1 Dh = centimes

DII Desertec Industrial Initiative

DLR Deutschen Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt

German Aerospace Centre

DNI Direct normal irradiation

DSG Direct Steam Genration

EE Energy efficiency

EEAA Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency

EPA Environmental Protection Agency (US)

ESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation

fa Annuity factor - to calculate constant annual payments

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FIPA Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (Tunisia)

FNME Fonds National de Maîtrise de l’Energie

National Fund for Energy Conservation

FODEP Fonds de Dépollution Industrielle

Fonds for industrial de-pollution

G Global irradiance in W m-2

Gb Beam irradiance in W m-2

Gd Diffuse irradiance in W m-2

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GIZ / GTZ Gesellschaft für Internationale (ehemals: Technische) Zusammenarbeit

Society for international (former: technical) cooperation

87
GW gigawatt

h hour

Hrc horizontal distance to receiver

HCP Haut-Commissariat au Plan du Maroc

High economic advisory committee

HDI Human Development Index

HVAC Heating, ventilation and air conditioning

ibar Interest rate at capital market

IEA International Energy Agency

IRESEN Institut de Recherche en Energie Solaire et Energies Nouvelle (Morocco)

Research institute for new and solar energies

IRR Internal rate of return

IRRM Modified internal rate of return

K Kelvin

KFW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau

Credit Institute for Reconstruction

kg kilogram

km kilometre

kW Kilowatt

kWh Kilowatt hour

LFC Linear Fresnel collector

LT Lifetime

MASEN Maroccan Agency for Solar Energy

MEMEE Ministere de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement (Morocco)

Ministry for Energy, Mining, Water and the Environment

88
MENA Middle East and North Africa

MICNT Ministère de l’Industrie, du Commerce et des Nouvelles Technologies (Tunisia)

Ministry of Industry, Trade and New Technologies

MIT Ministère de l’Industrie et du Commerce

Ministry for Industry and Trade

Mtoe Mega tonnes oil equivalent

MW Megawatt

NPV Net present value

NRCA National Roofing Contractors Association

O&M Operation and maintenance

ONA Omnium North – Africaine

ONE Office National de l’Electricité

National agency for electricity

POSHIP Potential Of Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

PP Payback period

PROMASOL Programme national de développement du marché de chauffe-eau solaire

Programme for the national market development of solar water heaters

PROMISE PROduzieren MIt Solar Energie

Producing with solar energy

PROSOL Programme Solair

Solar programme

PST Plan Solaire Tunesien

Tunisian Solar Plan

PTC Parabolic trough collector

PV Photovoltaic

Qsol Annual solar energy yield in kWhth

89
r discount factor

R/P Resource to production ratio

RCMA Roof Coatings Manufacturers Association

RCREEE Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency

RE Renewable energies

SA Sensitivity analysis

SHIP Solar heat for industrial processes

SHIPc Solar heat for industrial processes with concentrating collectors

SIE Société Investment Energetiques (Morocco)

Society for the Investment in Energy

STEG Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz

Tunisian Society for Electricity and Gas

STEG ER Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz Energies Renouvelables

Tunisian Society for Electricity and Gas Renewable Energies

SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads

T Temperature

t specific point within life time

Ta ambient temperature

tcm thousand cubic meter

TD Tunisian Dinar; 1 TD = 1,000 millime

TI Transperancy International

TPED Total primary energy demand

TPES Total primary energy supply

TR Tons refrigeration

90
TWh terrawatt hour

UAE United Arab Emirates

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme

UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization

VDI Verband Deutscher Ingenieure

German Engineering Association

W watt

WEF World Economic Forum

Xpr location of primary receivers

Zpr vertical distance to receiver

91
A. Energy tariffs in Morocco and Tunisia
Tunisia: Electricity (medium tension, without taxes) (STEG, 2011a)

Customer fixed costs Energy prices in TD / kWhel

TD / kW / month Day Peak Evening Noon
0.5 0.125
3.5 0.11 0.168 0.133 0.085
water pumping 3.5 0.126 0.156 NA 0.085

Tunisia: Fossil fuels (STEG, 2011b)

Fuel Tarif Consumption Fixed costs Energy prices

m3 Abo Debit TN
Gas MP1 1000 – 4000 20 100 25.30
Gas MP2 4000 – 30000 20 200 24.90
Oil Heating oil n.a. n.a. n.a.

Morocco: Electricity (medium tension, including taxes) (ONE, 2011)

Tarif option Fixed costs Energy prices in Dh

Dh / kVa / a 17:00 – 22:00 07:00 – 17:00 22:00 – 07:00
> 5500 h 1,729.33 0.7338 0.5499 0.4913
2500 – 5500 h 692.19 1.2041 0.7053 0.4913
< 2500 h 346.10 1.6070 0.8289 0.5151

Morocco: Fossil fuels

Fuel Prices per l in Dh

Heating oil 0.36

92
B. Gasgrid in Tunisia

93
C. Food companies listed at the Moroccan and Tunisian
stock exchange

Name sector issued capital

Morocco in Moroccan Dirham
Brasseries du Nord Marocain beverages 500,000
Brasseries du Maroc beverages 2,825,201
Cartier Saada fruits 4,680,000
Central Latiere dairy 9,420,000
Cosumar sugar 4,191,057
Dari couscous 298,375
Lesieur Cristal oil & soapes 27,631,510
Oulmes beverages 1,980,000
Unimer fish 10,013,880

Tunisia in Tunisian Dinar

Tunisie lait dairy 25,000,000
Societe Frigorifique et Brasserie de Tunis beverages 66,000,000
Societe de Production agricole de Teboulba poultry 10,500,000

94
D. Exemplary calculation for reference case

Variable symbol unit value

interest rate ibar % 5
discount factor r % 5
life time LT years 20
cash flow CF e
certain point in time t
investment costs CINV e
price per m2 e / m2 400
subsidies 0.9
Annual energy yields Qsol MWhth
O&M rate % 2.5
annuity factor fa
efficiency of boiler % 80
irradiation kWh / m2 / a 2000
price per kWh e /kWh 0.03
price increase fossil fuels % 6
price increase O&M % 3
consumption costs CCons e /kWh 0.0012

v
u ∑LT
u (CFt )
t t=0
LT (1+r)t
IRRM = (1 + ibar ) ∗ +1−1
CIN V

CIN V ∗ fa + CO&M
CSHG = + CCons
Qsol

CIN V = 8000m2 ∗ 400e ∗ 0.9 = 2, 880, 000e

Qsol = 8000m2 ∗ 2000kW h/m2 /a ∗ 0.4 = 6, 400M W hth

CO&M (t=1) = 2, 880, 000e ∗ 0.025 = 72, 000e

∑
20
CFt
t
= −CIN V − N P Vexpenditures + N P Vsavings = 980, 191e
t=0 (1 + 0.05)

1 (1 + 0.03)20 − (1 + 0.05)20
N P Vexpenditures = 72, 000e ∗ + = 1, 149, 464e
(1 + 0.05)20 (0.03 − 0.05)

95
 1 (1 + 0.03)20 − (1 + 0.06)20
N P Vsavings = 240, 000e ∗ + = 5, 009, 655e
(1 + 0.05)20 (0.06 − 0.05)

e
6, 400M W hth ∗ 0.03 kW h
Savingst=1 = = 240, 000e
0.8

(1 + 0.05)20 ∗ 0.05
fa = = 0.0802
(1 + 0.05)20 − 1
√
980, 191e
IRRM = (1 + 0.05) ∗ 20
+ 1 − 1 = 0.065 = 6.5%
2, 880, 000e

2, 880, 000e ∗ 0.0802 + 72, 000e 0.06e

CSHG = + = 0.0127e
6, 400M W hth 50kW h

96
E. Economic potentials for renewable energies in Middle
East and North Africa and further energy data
Economic potentials in TWh (Trieb et al., 2005)

Hydro

Wind
CSP
Geo

Bio

PV
Country
Algeria 0.5 4.7 12.1 168,972 35.0 13.9
Bahrain n.a. n.a. 0.2 33 0.1 0.3
Egypt 50 26 15 73,656 90 36
Jordan 0.1 n.a. 1.6 6,429 2.0 4.5
Kuwait n.a. n.a. 0.8 1,525 n.a. 2.5
Libanon 1.0 n.a. 0.8 14 0.2 1.5
Lybia n.a. n.a. 1.7 139,477 15 3.9
Morocco 4.0 10 14 20,146 25 17
Oman n.a. n.a. 1.1 19,404 8.0 4.1
Qatar n.a. n.a. 0.1 792 n.a. 1.0
Saudi Arabia n.a. 71 9.9 124,560 20 14
Syria 4.0 n.a. 4.7 10,210 12 8.5
Tunisia 0.5 3.2 3.2 9,244 8.0 5.0
Turkey 122 150 55 131 55 29
UAE n.a. n.a. 0.7 1,988 n.a. 3.0
Yemen n.a. 107 9.1 5,100 3.0 26

97
Indicator Algeria Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 152.3
Production gas Mtoe 70.1
Production crude oil Mtoe 82.1
Production others Mtoe 0.1
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 39.8
Production / TPES % 382.7
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 25
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 9.1
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 13.1
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 2.7
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.1
Energy consumption electricity Twh 33.9
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 4.4
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 2.2
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.9
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.2
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0.1
Resources
Resources gas tcm 4.5
R/P ratio gas years 55.3
Resources oil tMt 1.5
R/P ratio oil years 18.5
CSP performance Index kWh/m2 /year 2,700
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 168,972
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 52.65
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.20
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 3.6
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -123.77
Net trade gas Mtoe
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 88.09
CO2 per kWh kg
Country Data
Population (in 2010) million 35.46
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 159
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 4,495
Industry % of GDP 62
Transparency index rank of 178 105

98
Indicator Bahrain Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 17.5
Production gas Mtoe 7.9
Production crude oil Mtoe 9.6
Production others Mtoe 0
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 9.5
Production / TPES % 184
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 5.1
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 2.9
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 1.3
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 0.9
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 10.8
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 3.0
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 2.9
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.1
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 0.09
R/P ratio gas years 6.7
Resources oil tMt n.a.
R/P ratio oil years n.a
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,050
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 33
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 219.8
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.13
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % -6
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -6.76
Net trade gas Mtoe 0
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -6.76
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 22.3
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 1.17
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 20.6
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 17,606
Industry % of GDP n.a.
Transparency Index rank of 178 48

99
Indicator Egypt Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 88.2
Production gas Mtoe 51.5
Production crude oil Mtoe 33.9
Production others Mtoe 2.8
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 72.0
Production / TPES % 122.5
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 49
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 11.9
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 24.8
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 10.2
Energy consumption others Mtoe 2.1
Energy consumption electricity Twh 123.4
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 15.1
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 8.0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 3.3
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 2.6
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0.8
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0.4
Resources
Resources gas tcm 2.19
R/P ratio gas years 34.9
Resources oil tMt 0.6
R/P ratio oil years 16.2
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,800
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 73,656
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 119
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.2
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 9
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -15.52
Net trade gas Mtoe
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 174.03
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 81.12
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 218,912
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 2,699
Industry % of GDP 38
Transparency index rank of 178 98

100
Indicator Jordan Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 0.3
Production gas Mtoe 0.16
Production crude oil Mtoe 0.1
Production others Mtoe 0.04
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 7.4
Production / TPES % 4
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 4.7
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 3.6
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.1
Energy consumption electricity Twh 12.5
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 1.1
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.25
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.85
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm n.a.
R/P ratio gas years n.a.
Resources oil tMt n.a.
R/P ratio oil years n.a.
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,700
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 6,429
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 99.37
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.61
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 19
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe 7.17
Net trade gas Mtoe 2.572
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 4.598
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 18.42
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 6.05
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 27.574
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 4,557
Industry % of GDP 33
Transparency index rank of 178 50

101
Indicator Kuwait Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 130.2
Production gas Mtoe 9.3
Production crude oil Mtoe 120.9
Production others Mtoe 0
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 30.2
Production / TPES % 421
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 11.7
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 2.7
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 6.1
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 2.9
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 46.6
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 3.6
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 2.7
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.9
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 1.78
R/P ratio gas years >100
Resources oil tMt 14
R/P ratio oil years >100
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,100
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 1,525
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 2,465
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.2
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 1.3
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -124.811
Net trade gas Mtoe 0
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -124.811
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 69.49
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 2.64
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 109.463
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 41.463
Industry % of GDP n.a.
Transparency index rank of 178 54

102
Indicator Lebanon Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 0.17
Production gas Mtoe 0
Production crude oil Mtoe 0
Production others Mtoe 0.17
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 6.6
Production / TPES % 2.6
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 4.4
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 3.1
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.1
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.2
Energy consumption electricity Twh 13.1
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 0.6
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.3
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.2
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0.1
Resources
Resources gas tcm n.a.
R/P ratio gas years n.a.
Resources oil tMt n.a.
R/P ratio oil years n.a.
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,000
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 14
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 28.05
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.76
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 12
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe 5.227
Net trade gas Mtoe 0
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 5.045
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 15.23
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 4.23
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 39,155
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 9,262
Industry % of GDP 21
Transparency index rank of 178 127

103
Indicator Lybia Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 87.1
Production gas Mtoe 13
Production crude oil Mtoe 74
Production others Mtoe 0.164
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 20.4
Production / TPES % 426
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 10.7
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 2.3
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 6.3
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.9
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.2
Energy consumption electricity Twh 26.1
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 1.7
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 1.0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.4
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 1.54
R/P ratio gas years >100
Resources oil tMt 5.8
R/P ratio oil years >73.4
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,700
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 139,477
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 718
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.12
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % -3.5
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -85.24
Net trade gas Mtoe -8.493
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -76.74
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 44.85
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 6.36
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 62.360
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 9,805
Industry % of GDP 78
Transparency index rank of 178 146

104
Indicator Morocco Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 0.8
Production gas Mtoe 0
Production crude oil Mtoe 0
Production others Mtoe 0.8
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 15.1
Production / TPES % 5.3
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 11.6
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 9.1
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.9
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.6
Energy consumption electricity Twh 23.9
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 2.7
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.7
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.9
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0.1
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm n.a.
R/P ratio gas years n.a.
Resources oil tMt n.a.
R/P ratio oil years n.a.
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,600
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 20,146
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 43.41
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.83
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 5
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe 14.24
Net trade gas Mtoe 0.43
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 9.496
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 42.09
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 31.95
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 91.196
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 2,802
Industry % of GDP 30
Transparency index rank of 178 85

105
Indicator Oman Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 67.2
Production gas Mtoe 23.6
Production crude oil Mtoe 43.6
Production others Mtoe
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 15.0
Production / TPES % 448
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 7.5
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 1.7
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 4.5
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.3
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 15.5
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 2.1
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0.3
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.1
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.6
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 0.6
R/P ratio gas years 39.6
Resources oil tMt 0.8
R/P ratio oil years 18.9
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,200
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 19,404
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 86.57
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.38
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 3.4
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -42.72
Net trade gas Mtoe -11.327
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -31390
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 34.92
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 2.71
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 46.866
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 17,293
Industry % of GDP n.a.
Transparency index rank of 178 41

106
Indicator Qatar Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 140
Production gas Mtoe 79.5
Production crude oil Mtoe 60.5
Production others Mtoe
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 23.8
Production / TPES % 588
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 14.2
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 7.2
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 5.2
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.8
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 23
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 5.3
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 3.6
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.5
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.2
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 25.37
R/P ratio gas years >100
Resources oil tMt 2.8
R/P ratio oil years 54.7
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,000
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 792
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 455.2
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.19
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % na
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -99.8
Net trade gas Mtoe -51.51
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -48.29
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 53.91
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 1.6
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 98,313
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 61,445
Industry % of GDP n.a.
Transparency index rank of 178 19

107
Indicator Saudi Arabia Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 528.3
Production gas Mtoe 61.3
Production crude oil Mtoe 467
Production others Mtoe 0
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 157.8
Production / TPES % 334
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 97.8
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 13.4
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 68.6
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 15.8
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 199
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 17.4
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 2.1
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 15.3
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 7.92
R/P ratio gas years >100
Resources oil tMt 36.3
R/P ratio oil years 74.6
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,500
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 124,560
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 943.3
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.09
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % -0.1
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -412.41
Net trade gas Mtoe 0
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -412.42
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 389.16
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 27.45
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 434.666
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 15,834
Industry % of GDP 70
Transparency Index rank of 178 50

108
Indicator Syria Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 23.6
Production gas Mtoe 5
Production crude oil Mtoe 18.4
Production others Mtoe 0.2
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 22.5
Production / TPES % 105
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 13.6
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 1.1
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 10.2
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 2.3
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 31.3
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 3.9
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0.3
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.9
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 2.7
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 0.28
R/P ratio gas years 48.9
Resources oil tMt 0.3
R/P ratio oil years 18.2
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,200
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 10,210
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 99.76
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.53
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 19
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -3.71
Net trade gas Mtoe 0.113
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -3.828
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 54.44
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 20.45
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 59.103
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 2,891
Industry % of GDP 35
Transparency index rank of 178 127

109
Indicator Tunisia Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 7.8
Production gas Mtoe 2.4
Production crude oil Mtoe 4.1
Production others Mtoe 1.3
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 9.2
Production / TPES % 85
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 6.5
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 1.2
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 3.2
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.1
Energy consumption others Mtoe 1
Energy consumption electricity Twh 13.7
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 1.6
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0.9
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.4
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.3
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm n.a.
R/P ratio gas years n.a.
Resources oil tMt n.a.
R/P ratio oil years n.a.
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,400
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 9,244
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 61.74
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.84
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 14
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe 1.78
Net trade gas Mtoe 2.096
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -0.312
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 20.75
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 10.549
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 44.291
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 4,199
Industry % of GDP 32
Transparency index rank of 178 59

110
Indicator Turkey Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 30.3
Production gas Mtoe 0.6
Production crude oil Mtoe 2.4
Production others Mtoe 27.3
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 97.6
Production / TPES % 31
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 73.1
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 11.2
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 28.6
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 13.3
Energy consumption others Mtoe 20
Energy consumption electricity Twh 165
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 18.6
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 4.4
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 5.9
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.3
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 7
Resources
Resources gas tcm n.a.
R/P ratio gas years n.a.
Resources oil tMt n.a.
R/P ratio oil years n.a.
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,000
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 131
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 18.77
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 1.62
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 12
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe 72.52
Net trade gas Mtoe 30.244
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 29.449
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 263.53
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2010) million 72.75
GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 735.264
GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 10,106
Industry % of GDP 28
Transparency index rank of 178 56

111
Indicator UAE Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 168.8
Production gas Mtoe 40.9
Production crude oil Mtoe 127.9
Production others Mtoe 0
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 59.6
Production / TPES % 283
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 41.8
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 24.8
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 10.6
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 6.3
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.1
Energy consumption electricity Twh 79.5
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 26.7
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 24.8
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.8
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.1
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 6.43
R/P ratio gas years >100
Resources oil tMt 13
R/P ratio oil years >100
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,200
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 1,988
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 2,032
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.62
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 11
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -102.85
Net trade gas Mtoe 6.022
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 108.892
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 146.95
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 6.94
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 230.252
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 33,183
Industry % of GDP 61
Transparency index rank of 178 28

112
Indicator Yemen Unit 2009
Energy Production Mtoe 15.2
Production gas Mtoe 0.5
Production crude oil Mtoe 14.6
Production others Mtoe 0.1
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 7.5
Production / TPES % 203
Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption Mtoe 5.3
Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption oil Mtoe 4.9
Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 0.4
Energy consumption others Mtoe 0
Energy consumption electricity Twh 5.1
Energy consumption industry Mtoe 0.8
Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.8
Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0
Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0
Resources
Resources gas tcm 0.49
R/P ratio gas years >100
Resources oil tMt 0.3
R/P ratio oil years 24.5
CSP performance index kWh/m2 /year 2,200
CSP economic potential TWhel /year 5,100
Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 169
Prices
Price gas
Price oil
Price diesel US$ / litre 0.17
CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 14
Price kWhel for industry
Energy Trade
Net balance Mtoe -7.9
Net trade gas Mtoe 0
Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -7.9
Emissions
CO2 from fuel combustion Mt 21.93
CO2 per kWh kg
Socio-economic data
Population (in 2009) million 23.4
GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 26.4
GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 1,130
Industry % of GDP n.a.
Transparency index rank of 178 146

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Author´s Declaration

To the best of my knowledge I do hereby declare that this thesis is my own work. It has not
been submitted in any form of another degree or diploma to any other university or other
institution of education. Information derived from the published or unpublished work of others
has been acknowledged in the text and a list of references is given.

Stuttgart, the

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