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to Opportunity:
Building a Response
to the New Reality
Outlook on the Global Agenda 2011
An initiative of the Risk Response Network
World Economic Forum
January 2011
World Economic Forum
January 2011
An enhanced virtual version of this report provides additional
background information and insights.
Go to http://outlook.weforum.org
REF: 110111
Roadmap to the New Reality
The third Summit on the Global Agenda brought together offers one way in which the Global Agenda Councils and the
over 600 thought leaders from 60 countries and a myriad of broader global community will come together to respond
disciplines to discuss the most relevant issues on the global, to the new risk landscape, the World Economic Forum
regional and industry agendas. The goal of the Summit was Annual Meeting 2011 in Davos-Klosters aims to catalyse
to convene multistakeholder groups of relevant experts to this process on an even greater scale. The Meeting’s theme
stimulate bold thinking and catalyse innovative discussions. – Shared Norms for the New Reality – promises to address
Council Members also developed concrete action plans to crucial questions to rebalance risks and opportunities and
address key risks and foster valuable opportunities. fashion a better future collaboratively.
This Outlook on the Global Agenda 2011, a new publication Following the Annual Meeting 2011, the Global Agenda
of the Network of Global Agenda Councils, provides an Councils will continue their collaboration and further
overview of the prevailing issues on the minds of our Global elaborate their analysis and recommendations to address
Agenda Council Members for the next 12-18 months as key challenges, publishing their main findings in Spring 2011
identified by the Global Agenda Survey and discussed while continuing to integrate them in Forum activities on an
during the Summit. The findings of the report emphasize ongoing basis.
the importance of rebalancing risks and opportunities and
developing new thinking for a new era, a time characterized I hope this publication will stimulate new thinking for the new
by highly complex and interconnected issues and challenges, reality.
yet also providing unique opportunities to develop
collaborative solutions on a large scale.
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We asked the Members of the Network of Global Agenda • Shortage of resources: A crucial underlying trend
Councils what trends would drive global affairs in the next that will drive much conflict and realignment of the
12-18 months. The survey paints a picture of an unsettled global landscape in the near future is access to
world driven by significant shifts in geopolitical realities, limited resources. Shortages across commodities
struggling with the need to provide quality of life for close from water and food to iron ore and rare earth will
to 6.8 billion people and rising. be a key point of negotiation: “How do we decouple
economic growth from resource consumption?”
The first annual Global Agenda Survey features responses questioned a respondent.
from 570 Members of the Network of Global Agenda
Councils. The top five issues they identified were:
Other results from the survey include the identification of “weak signals”, issues or trends only identified by a small
number of respondents, but which may emerge as significant challenges.
We also asked the experts which issues they perceived as over- and underestimated as drivers of global affairs. Notably,
climate change, corporate social responsibility and sustainable energy were considered overestimated trends, while
inequality, population growth and resource scarcity were considered significantly underestimated.
10
Forecast
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* Forecasts are medium variant PwC
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Shifting Balance of Power
“Why are global challenges so risky now? Because Risks: Shifting Balance of Power
there is a multiplicity of these challenges. They don’t
come in isolation; they come together at the same s The fragility of the G20
ϔǤϔ
ϔ s Weak global governance
ǡ
Ǥdz s Greater protectionism and increasing trade
conflicts
He Yafei, Ambassador and Permanent Representative
of the People’s Republic of China to the United Nations, s Currency wars
Geneva, and other international organizations in s Economic uncertainty in Europe affecting its
Switzerland; Vice-Chair of the Regional Agenda Council legitimacy as a leading power
on China s Development of nuclear capacity
s Military conflict
“People in Africa want to start consuming as much Risks: Natural Resource Scarcity
as people in Europe or the US now do. But if we
continue to consume as we are today, we will need s Unpredictable commodity prices
Ǥdz s Lack of access to resources, energy security
and social licenses to operate
Kandeh Yumkella, Director-General, United Nations
s The collapse of global fish stocks
Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Vienna;
Member of the Global Agenda Council on Climate s Irreplaceable biodiversity loss and ecosystem
Change degradation
s The struggle to balance water demand with
supply
s The rapid escalation in humanity’s
environmental footprint
s Increased piracy and illicit trade
Participants discussed a number of significant global Misaligned subsidies: Participants also pointed out that
trends that will intensify the demand for food, water and subsidies too often distort natural resource depletion.
energy resources. These include: For example, subsidies still exist today for resources
that are already depleted. These subsidies promote the
Consumption and consumer behaviour: Informing, wrong behaviour and must be eliminated. Targeted and
educating and empowering consumers are key rebalanced subsidies to support growing sustainable
approaches to changing behaviour. People must be alternatives – such as wind power or solar energy – to
convinced that conservation is important. A value shift market scale should be introduced. Innovation in energy
is needed – from more to better consumption. But too efficiency can be spurred and a better investment climate
often consumers are not aware of how much water or created through well-designed subsidies for renewables
energy they are using or what impact their behaviour has uptake.
on the environment. New metrics and standards are also
increasingly needed so consumers across the world can Resource wars: Natural resource scarcity is not only
measure their usage comparably and consistently. an issue of sustainability – it is also a potential source
of conflict. The overuse of water, the contamination
Product labels that carry information about water and of the air and soil, the depletion of minerals and other
carbon footprints, or measuring tools that provide problematic shortages can lead to diplomatic incidents or
real-time feedback about household energy and water even disputes. Risks emerging from the lack of food and
consumption are practical ways to help consumers climate change or natural disasters are increasingly on the
make better choices in their day-to-day lives. These are horizon, such that this angle of natural resource scarcity
challenges for product developers and manufacturers, should also be made a priority in the months ahead.
and for utility companies.
Despite a number of critical challenges in this area, there
Issues of consumption inequality also need to be is tremendous potential to create a wholly transformed
resolved; while some consume too much, others still have green economy which could develop opportunities for
too little. This issue requires global action to determine sustainable growth. However, business leadership is
footprints and consumption in different areas of the world critical to ensure the long-term sustainability of natural
and recalibrate consumer behaviour. resources; participants agreed that business leaders
should not wait for government to force regulations upon
Loss of biodiversity: A comprehensive ecosystem their industries, but should instead be taking the initiative
assessment is urgently needed so ecosystem to enable and foster opportunities to develop sustainable
services can be properly accounted for and valued. solutions. Large companies have a vested interest in
One promising initiative is the International Integrated being environmentally responsible all along the supply
Reporting Committee, which is developing a globally chain to ensure that the resources they need in the
accepted framework for accounting for sustainability. future will be available to them. Resource management
The framework brings together financial, environmental, as a sound business principle in the private sector
social and governance information in a clear, concise, needs to be impressed. Government- and private-run
consistent and comparable format. Better calculations of utility companies should be rewarded for responsible
the life cycle and costs of alternative sources of energy behaviour, including for conserving energy. Business
should also be developed. leaders can also play an important and constructive role
by demonstrating leadership commitment to develop
Land challenges: A global or regional system is needed to market-based solutions and forming partnerships
better manage land and all other resources. Land usage and collaborations with other relevant stakeholders to
must be matched to the appropriate type of land. For implement them.
example, land suitable for agriculture development should
“There has been amazing growth in the last couple Risk: Inclusive Growth and Equality
of decades, but 40% of it was not in the real economy
and has not been distributed. According to OECD s Rising economic disparity within and between
reports, the world is growing more unequal. That is countries
ϔ
Ǥdz s Social and political instability
s The lack of a sustainable social safety net in
Sharan Burrow, General Secretary, International Trade many countries
Union Confederation (ITUC), Belgium; Chair of the Global s Unequal access to education affecting
Agenda Council on Employment & Social Protection women’s empowerment and social
development
s Reduced productivity as a result of epidemics
and chronic diseases
s Disaffected youth becoming a disruptive force
“If we are going to act, the earlier the better, because Risks: Fragile States and New Conflicts
there’s more we can do when working with existing
ǡ s Further corruption and the abuse of power for
private gain
already happened. Remember that inaction is also a s Greater capital flight
Ǥdz s Large-scale disease pandemics
s Food insecurity
Sir John Holmes, Director,
s Poor global support for weakened states
The Ditchley Foundation,
United Kingdom; Chair of the Global Agenda Council on s Increased havens for criminal and terrorist
Humanitarian Assistance activity
s Greater nexus between population growth,
urbanization and unemployment
s Rapid social change in areas of high
population growth
s The political, economic and social
destabilization of fragile states leading to
conflict
Dz
ǡ
Other Risks (identified weak signals)
Ǥdz s The illicit economy: worth US$ 1.3 trillion in
2009 and growing
Klaus Schwab, s A weakening free market system
Founder and Executive Chairman, s Conflict contagion
World Economic Forum s Cyber warfare
s The fragmentation of the Internet
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Task Forces
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Acknowledgements
This Outlook on the Global Agenda 2011 provides an Global Agenda Council Team
overview of the thematic discussions that took place
at the Summit on the Global Agenda and includes Martina Gmür, Head of the Network of Global Agenda
a synthesis of Global Agenda Council Member Councils
contributions and ideas from the Global Agenda Survey
Guillaume Amigues, Research Analyst
conducted this term.
Olivia Bessat, Knowledge Manager
The World Economic Forum thanks everyone who played Lina Boren, Research Analyst
an important part in developing this report, particularly
Tareq Bouchuiguir, Research Analyst
the Chairs and Members of the Network of Global
Agenda Councils. Kieran Gopaul, Research Analyst
Ethan Huntington, Research Analyst
The Forum is also very grateful for the generous support
Séverine Kaeser, Team Coordinator
provided by the Federal Government of the United
Arab Emirates and the Government of Dubai for Patrick McGee, Senior Research Analyst
hosting the Summit on the Global Agenda 2010. Liana Melchenko, Associate Director
Tiffany Misrahi, Research Analyst
Last but not least, the Forum expresses sincere thanks
to the World Economic Forum colleagues who provided Oksana Myshlovska, Associate Director
their time, insights and continued guidance: Martin Nägele, Associate Director
Miguel Perez, Nominations & Member Engagement
Manager
Founder and Executive Chairman
Florian Reber, Research Analyst
Klaus Schwab Aida Rehouma, Senior Community Associate
www.weforum.org