System Reliability Calculation

Lecture-1
(Date: 13-03-2020)

(a) Series systems

The components in a set are said to be in series from a reliability point of view if they must all
work or system success or only one needs to fail for system failure.
Consider a system consisting of two independent components A and B connected in series,
from a reliability point of view, as shown in Figure 1. This arrangement indicates that both
components must work to ensure system success.

Figure 1: Two component series system

We assume,

𝑅𝐴 = probability of successful operation of component A

𝑅𝐵= probability of successful operation of component B
𝑄𝐴 = probability of failure of A
𝑄𝐵 = probability of failure of B
Since success and failure are mutually exclusive and complementary,

𝑅𝐴 +𝑅𝐵 = 1
𝑄𝐴 +𝑄𝐵 = 1
The requirement for system success is that 'both A and B' must be working.
**We know, If A and B are two independent components, the probability of both A and B
working can be found by multiplying the probability of A and B.
So, Probability of both A and B happening,

P(A ∩ 𝐵) = P(A). P(B) (a)

So, if 𝑅𝑆 is the total system reliability of components A and B, equation (a) can be used to
give the probability of system success or reliability as

𝑅𝑆 = 𝑅𝐴 . 𝑅𝐵 (1)

If there are now n components in series, Equation (1) can be generalized to give

𝑅𝑆 = ∏ 𝑅𝑖 (2)
𝑖=1

Here, 𝒊 indicates the component number and 𝑅𝑖 means reliability of that component [𝑖 =1
means component number 1 and the reliability of component one is 𝑅1 , 𝑖 =2 means component
number 2 and the reliability of component two is 𝑅2 ].

Here, 𝒏 shows the total number of components in that system. In Figure one we have only 2
components which means the value of 𝒏 here is 2.

This equation frequently is referred to as the product rule of reliability since it establishes that
the reliability of a series system is the product of the individual component reliabilities.
System success and system failure are complementary events and therefore for the two
component system the unreliability of the whole system is,

𝑄𝑆 = 1 − 𝑅𝑆 (3)
= 1 − 𝑅𝐴 . 𝑅𝐵 (4)
= 1 − (1 − 𝑄𝐴 ). (1 − 𝑄𝐵 ) (5)
= 𝑄𝐴 + 𝑄𝐵 − 𝑄𝐴 . 𝑄𝐵 (6)
Any of these four equations can be used to find the failure or the unreliability of the system.
Example 1
A system consists of 10 identical components, all of which must work for system success.
What is the system reliability if each component has a reliability of 0.951?
Solution:

We can see, in the question we have 10 identical component. So, here 𝒏= 10

The components are 𝑹𝟏 , 𝑹𝟐 , 𝑹𝟑 , 𝑹𝟒 , 𝑹𝟓 , 𝑹𝟔 , 𝑹𝟕 , 𝑹𝟖 , 𝑹𝟗 , 𝑹𝟏𝟎 .

As all the components are identical so all the components have same reliability of 0.951.
It is difficult to write down all the components as sometimes a system might have thousands
of components. To simplify, we use Equation (2) to calculate total system reliability.
𝑛

𝑅𝑆 = ∏ 𝑅𝑖
𝑖=1

We know from the question, 𝒏= 10 and reliability 𝑹𝟏 = 𝑹𝟐 =. . . … = 𝑹𝟏𝟎 = 0.951

Now,
10

𝑅𝑆 = ∏ 0.951
𝑖=1

=0.951×0.951×…..×0.951
This means we have to multiply 0.951 ten times as all the components are identical. So, if the
system has 𝒏 identical components and each has reliability 𝑹, the total system reliability 𝑹𝑺
can be re-written as,

𝑅𝑆 = (𝑹)𝑛 (7)
Now, Example 1 can simply be solved as,
10

𝑅𝑆 = ∏ 0.951
𝑖=1

= 0.951×0.951×…..×0.951
= (0.951)10
= 0.605 (Ans.)
Example 2
A two component series system contains identical components each having a reliability of
0.99. Evaluate the unreliability of the system.
Solution:
We can solve this in many ways.

Method 1: From Equation (3), 𝑄𝑠 =1 − 𝑅𝑆 =1-0.992 = 0.0199 (Ans.)

Method 2: Here, 𝑅𝐴 = 𝑅𝐵 = 0.992

Now, 𝑄𝐴 = 𝑄𝐵 = 1 − 𝑅𝐴 = 1 − 𝑅𝐵 = 1 − 0.992 = 0.01

From Equation (6), 𝑄𝑠 = 𝑄𝐴 + 𝑄𝐵 − 𝑄𝐴 . 𝑄𝐵

=0.01+0.01- (0.01×0.01) = 0.0199 (Ans.)

Example 3 Example 4

A system design requires 200 identical

components in series. If the overall
reliability must not be less than 0.99,
what is the minimum reliability of
each component?
Solution:

From Equation (7), 𝑅𝑆 = (𝑅)𝑛

Here, 𝑅𝑆 = 0.99 and 𝑛 = 200

So, 0.99= 𝑅200

1 200
» (0.99)200 =𝑅 200
1
∴ 𝑅= (0.99)200 = 0.99995 (Ans.)