9917 Pronostico 2007-20027 CAR-SAM OACI

Doc 9917
Caribbean/South American
Regional Traffic Forecasts
2007–2027
Report of the Seventh Meeting

of the CAR/SAM Traffic
Forecasting Group (CAR/SAM TFG)
Rio de Janeiro, 3–7 November 2008
Approved by the CAR/SAM TFG and published

by authority of the Secretary General
International Civil Aviation Organization

Published in English only by ICAO under the authority of the
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Doc 9917, Caribbean/South American Regional

Traffic Forecasts 2007–2027
Report of the Seventh Meeting of the
CAR/SAM Traffic Forecasting Group (CAR/SAM TFG)
Rio de Janeiro, 3–7 November 2008
Order Number: 9917-CD
ISBN 978-92-9231-264-0
© ICAO 2009
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior
permission in writing from the International Civil Aviation Organization.
SEVENTH MEETING OF THE CAR/SAM
TRAFFIC FORECASTING GROUP
CAR/SAM TFG
(Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3–7 November 2008)
.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1
2. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 2
2.1 Definitions of Route Groups ............................................................................................ 2
2.2 Air Passenger Forecast Methodology............................................................................... 2
2.3 Aircraft Movements Forecast Methodology..................................................................... 3
3. Historical Trends and Forecast assumptions .................................................................... 4

3.1 Global Trends ............................................................................................................. 4
3.1.1 Global Economic Trends .................................................................................. 4
3.1.2 Global Traffic Trends ....................................................................................... 4
3.2 Trends and Prospects for the Latin America and Caribbean Region................................ 5
3.2.1 Data Sources............................................................................................................ 5
3.2.2 Historical Traffic Trends of the Latin American and Caribbean Airlines............... 5
3.2.3 Economic Trends and Prospects.............................................................................. 6
3.3 Yield Trends and Assumptions ........................................................................................ 7
3.4 Analysis of Load Factors and Capacity............................................................................ 9
4. Forecasts of Passenger Traffic and Aircraft Movements for Major Route Groups To,
From and Within the Latin American and Caribbean Region ...................... 11
4.1 South Atlantic............................................................................................................. 11
4.2 Mid-Atlantic ............................................................................................................... 13
4.3 Intra-South America ................................................................................................... 15
4.4 Between South America and Central America/Caribbean ......................................... 17
4.5 Intra-Central America/Caribbean ............................................................................... 19
4.6 Between North America and South America and Central America/Caribbean.......... 21
4.7 Summary of Major Route Group Forecasts...................................................................... 23

4.7.1 Passenger Forecast................................................................................................... 23
4.7.2 Aircraft Movements Forecast .................................................................................. 24
Appendix A: Peak-Period Analysis for Central American FIR .............................................. 25
Appendix B: Forecasts for the Eight Areas of Routing Defined in

the Global Air Navigation Plan …………………………………………. 39
Appendix C: Definition of the Route Groups and Geographical Areas Used in the
Development of Forecasts By the CAR/SAM TFG ……………………..... 47
Appendix D: List of Participants ............................................................................................ 49

(v)
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The main purpose of the Caribbean/South American (CAR/SAM) Region Traffic
Forecasting Group (TFG) which was established in 1996, is to prepare forecasts for air passenger traffic
and aircraft movements as well as peak period analysis, used to support the planning of air navigation
services in the Region. Traffic forecasts and the analysis of peak-period planning parameters are
important in anticipating where and when airspace and airport congestions may occur. It is then possible
to plan for the required expansion of capacity. These forecasts also have an important role in planning the
implementation of CNS/ATM systems. The primary users of the forecasts developed by the CAR/SAM
TFG are expected to be Member States of ICAO, air navigation service providers in the region, and the
ICAO planning and implementation regional group for CAR/SAM (GREPECAS).
1.2 The CAR/SAM TFG to date has held 7 meetings. During the last meeting, held in Rio de
Janeiro from 3 to 7 November 2008, the Group developed a new set of forecasts for the six major route
groups to, from and within the Region, taking into account the recent developments. The forecasts cover
passenger and aircraft movements traffic. Passenger traffic forecasts are based on assumptions made for
economic growth and passenger yields. Aircraft movements traffic forecasts are based on assumptions for
future trends in average load factors and average aircraft seating capacity. Projections of aircraft
movements traffic for the top 25 city pairs in each of the major route groups were also developed. In
addition, the analysis of FIR aircraft movements traffic data including peak-period planning parameters
for the airspace controlled by COCESNA was carried out. In terms of forecast period, twenty year
forecasts were developed with a base year of 2007 and three target years of 2012, 2017 and 2027.
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2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 Definition of Route Groups
2.1.1 Traffic to, from and within the CAR/SAM Region has previously been classified, by the
Group, into the following six major route groups as defined in Appendix C:
1) South Atlantic
2) Mid-Atlantic
3) Intra-South America
4) Between South America and Central America/Caribbean
5) Intra-Central America/Caribbean
6) Between North America and South America and Central America/Caribbean
2.2 Air Passenger Forecast Methodology
2.2.1 In preparing passenger forecasts for the CAR/SAM region, the Group related air travel
demand in the region primarily to economic growth of the regional economies, North America and
Western European countries as measured by variations in GDP, as well as to the cost of air travel as
measured by yields (gross passenger revenue divided by passenger-kilometres performed). No specific
assumptions were made about various possible geo-political and economic events in the future beyond
those implicit in the GDP assumptions. (GDP assumptions are discussed in Section 2.3.2)
2.2.2 The Group did a thorough review of the econometric model used at the previous meeting
in 2005. The model uses real GDP and real yield to explain changes in scheduled air passenger demand
among the six CAR/SAM route Groups listed above. Non-scheduled passenger traffic is not included in
this forecast.
2.2.3 The Group recalibrated the previous model using updated time series and cross-sectional
datasets for the period 1993 to 2007 with dummy variables applied to capture route group differences.
The model proved not to be as good; therefore, the Group decided to test other scenarios that could
improve the model. After estimating and evaluating several other models using the six route groups
(individually and pooled), results indicated that some of the groups had very similar characteristics.
Finally the Group chose a model which pooled together the similar route groups resulting in three route
group combinations as follows:
• South Atlantic and Mid Atlantic

• Intra-South America and Intra Central America/Caribbean
• Between South America and Central America/Caribbean AND between North America and
South America/Central America/Caribbean
2.2.4 The model, as specified below, was deemed to be the best fit of the historical data, hence
it was used to obtain an equivalent air passenger traffic forecast. In producing total regional air passenger
forecasts, GDP forecasts for the relevant countries in each route group, (based on Global Insight’s long-
term forecasts, October 2008) as well as yields forecasts (See Yields Assumptions Section) were then
applied to the model. Forecasts for each route group were then revised based on differential growth
patterns as observed by the Group as well as the proportion of specific route groups to the regional
aggregate. Due to time constraints, only baseline forecasts were produced, the high and low case
scenarios were not developed.
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LN (Passengers) = Constant + A*LN(GDP) + B*LN(Yield) + Dummy Variables
In this functional form, A and B are constant coefficients which represent elasticities.
The calibration produced the following results:
Ln (Passengers) = -13.12 + 1.96 ln(GDP) - 0.72 ln(Yield) + 2.41 (D1) + 1.89 (D2) - 0.47 (D3)
(R2 = 0.98, tGDP = 21.80, tYield = -3.30, tD1 = -20.23, tD2 = 18.25, tD3 = -5.38)
2.3 Aircraft Movement Forecast Methodology
2.3.1 Forecasts of aircraft movements for each route group was derived from forecasts of air
passengers and assumptions about future trends in load factors and average aircraft seating capacity. The
link between these variables is expressed below:
Number of Air Passengers

_______________________________________________________
Number of Aircraft Movements =
(Passengers/Seats) * (Seats per Aircraft)
Number of Air Passengers

__________________________________________________________________
=
(Load factors) * (Average Aircraft Seating Capacity)
2.3.2 The relationship between changes in the same variables can therefore be deduced to:
Y = X1 – X2 – X3
Where:
Y = Change in number of aircraft movements (%)
X1 = Change in number of air passengers (%)
X2 = Change in load factors (%)
X3 = Change in average aircraft seats (%)
2.3.3 Judgement was applied to assess whether gradual improvements in load factors could be
expected from marketing initiatives and yield programs. In addition an analysis of future trends in average
aircraft seating capacity was taken into account. It was assumed that historical trends of using aircraft
with larger seating capacity and matching of aircraft size to demand levels will be continued by airlines
over the forecast horizon. Furthermore, up to date information relating to aircraft orders and their
intended use were also taken into account in these assumptions.
2.3.4 The route group aircraft movement forecasts were then allocated to each of the respective
city-pairs taking into account traffic service patterns, types of aircraft, demographics and other pertinent
factors.
2.3.5 The historical trends in total seats offered, average aircraft seats, average load factor as
well as aircraft movements were established for each of the route groups concerned by utilizing the
Traffic by Flight Stage (TFS) data compiled by ICAO.
2.3.6 For each of the major route groups concerned, a detailed city-pair traffic flow was
developed using the 2007 Official Airline Guide (OAG) data provided by Back Associates as the basis. A
relationship between the TFS data and the aircraft movement data from the OAG was established.
-4-
3. HISTORICAL TRENDS AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
3.1 Global Trends
3.1.1 Global Economic trends
3.1.1.1 Between 1997 and 2007, the aggregate world economy measured in terms of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 3.8 per cent in real terms. Growth rates varied
across regions, from a high of 5.3 per cent for Asia/Pacific to a low of 2.6 percent for Europe including
countries in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). After recovering from a
slowdown in 1998, the World economy went into another downturn in early 2001, that was amplified by
the events of 11 September 2001. It showed signs of improvements in the years 2002 and 2003 before
witnessing a period of expansion over the 2004-2007 period, due to the enhanced performance in
industrial production, private consumption, global trade flows; all this despite sustained increases in oil
prices.
3.1.1.2 World population increased at an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent between 1997 and
2007. During the same period GDP per capita grew on average by 2.6 percent per year, which is
significantly lower than the growth of real GDP.
3.1.1.3 In 2008, global economic growth is expected to slowdown significantly from 4.8 percent
in 2007 to 3.9 per cent. This global economic slowdown has its roots in the financial turmoil that began in
the United States as a result, among other factors, of the sub-prime mortgage crisis that quickly spread to
the rest of the world. The ensuing tightening of the credit market has impacted consumers and businesses
negatively leading to a reduction in consumption and investment and causing businesses to cut down
production and reduce staff. All world regions continue to be impacted by the crisis, albeit at varying
degrees. The economies of exporting countries would be affected through the decline in demand for and
the prices of commodities. The current economic slowdown is expected to continue well into 2009 and
the recovery is foreseen to begin in the year 2010. Commodity prices are forecast to increase from their
current lows but are not expected to return to the levels reached in 2007 and the first half of 2008. The
long-term average annual growth rate of the world GDP is forecast to be around 4.0 per cent over the
forecast period (2007-2027).
3.1.2 Global Traffic trends
3.1.2.1 Between 1997 and 2007 total scheduled airline traffic, measured in terms of passenger-
kilometres performed (PKPs), grew at an average annual rate of 5.1 per cent reaching 4221 billion PKPs
by 2007. As expected, the growth pattern of passenger traffic reflects that of economic growth and this
linkage is illustrated in Figure 1 below. While in the mid 1990s both GDP and air traffic experienced
robust growth, in 1998 they both suffered declining growth rates. Following that period, traffic expansion
of 6.5 percent in 1999 and 8.6 per cent in 2000 was achieved. The events of 11 September 2001, which
exacerbated the already weak economic environment significantly affected global traffic growth. While
GDP grew by a moderate 2.4 per cent in 2001, air traffic growth went through a period of contraction and
declined by 2.9 per cent. Following this period, traffic growth was further dampened by events such as the
Iraq war in the first half of 2003 and the SARS epidemic. The world traffic rebounded in 2004 and
registered 14.1 per cent growth, reflecting the strong recovery by the airlines in Asia/Pacific (the region
worst affected by the SARS outbreak), improved performance of some regional economies and the
sustained expansion of the Middle East economy. Global traffic continued to grow remarkably between
2005 and 2007, supported by a strong performance of the world economy, registering growth rates of 8.0,
5.8 and 6.7 per cent respectively.
-5-
3.1.2.2 In the first half of 2008, air travel demand was affected by higher fuel and commodity
prices, which led to increased air fares and decline in consumer discretionary spending on leisure travel.
The trend was aggravated by the fallout from the global financial crisis in the second half of the year.
FIGURE 1
WORLD ANNUAL GROWTH IN GDP AND AIRLINE TRAFFIC

1997-2007
14
12
Tonne-kms
10 performed
8
Annual Change (%)
4
Real GDP
2
-2
-4
-6
97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3.2 Trends and Prospects for The Latin American And Caribbean Region
3.2.1 Data sources
3.2.1.1 In order to study the relationship between traffic and socio-economic trends in the Latin
American and Caribbean Region, data from several sources were collected on the economies of the
countries in the area. GDP historical and forecast data originate from Global Insight. Airline yield
information was obtained from ICAO and adjusted by the CAR/SAM TFG based on the most recent
information available from other sources.
3.2.2 Historical Traffic Trends of the Latin America and Caribbean Airlines
3.2.2.1 During the past decade (1997-2007), scheduled traffic of the Latin American and
Caribbean region airlines, measured in terms of passenger–kilometers performed, grew at an average
annual rate of about 3.3 per cent, compared to 5.1 per cent for the total world, reaching 173 billion
passenger kms by 2007. Traffic growth was volatile over this period. After experiencing declining growth
rates in 2001 (1 percent) and 2002 (3 percent), the region’s airlines air traffic recovered in 2004 when it
posted a growth of 9.6 per cent. The momentum continued into the following year with a growth of 6.4
per cent in 2005. After another decline of 0.2 per cent in 2006, traffic bounced back in 2007 supported by
a better economic environment, and attained a growth rate of 9 per cent. In 2008, traffic growth is
expected to remain robust with a rate somewhat close to that registered in the previous year.
-6-
3.2.2.2 It should be noted that the forecasts provided in this report were developed by major
route-group and cover traffic of all airlines operating on those route groups, not only the airlines
registered in the Latin American and Caribbean region.
3.2.3 Economic trends and prospects
3.2.3.1 Over the 1997-2007 period, the aggregate Latin American and Caribbean economy grew
at an average annual rate of 3.1 per cent in real terms, whereas GDP per capita grew only at 1.7 per cent
(a relatively lower rate compared to World GDP per capita growth of 2.6 percent for the same period).
3.2.3.2 After solid growth of 5.3 per cent in 1997, the regional economy experienced a dramatic
slowdown in growth of 2.4 per cent in 1998 and further plunged to 0.4 per cent growth in 1999. The
financial market setback led Brazil to introduce severe austerity measures. Other countries in the region,
such as Peru, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, suffered from the adverse effects of
repeated natural disasters which resulted in constricted output, especially due to devastation in the
agricultural and industrial sectors, and consequently declining overall economic performance. While the
Latin American and Caribbean Region enjoyed above average growth in the 1990s, due mainly to large
capital inflows; the years 2000 and 2001 experienced relatively weak growth. The region was severely
affected by the 2001 slowdown and the 2002 recession. In 2003, recovery began to take its root and as a
result, GDP growth started to strengthen. During 2004, with the world’s economy enjoying an impressive
growth (4.8%), the Latin American and Caribbean Region also registered a robust growth rate of about
5.9 per cent. Following the strong rebound in 2004, economic growth in most countries of the region held
up well in the years 2005, 2006 and 2007 with increases of 4.6, 5.5 and 5.5 per cent, respectively. The
main factors underlying the growth momentum were strong commodity and raw material exports as well
as broad terms-of-trade gains. Despite the demand weaknesses in North America and a decline in
commodity prices, the outlook for the region remains positive; most of the economies of the region are
expected to maintain a respectable pace of growth in the short-term (2008-2010). For this period, growth
is forecast to reach 4.5, 4.3 and 4.5 percent, respectively.
3.2.3.3 Table 1 below shows GDP growth rates for the major economies in the CAR/SAM
region and those of other regions.
-7-
TABLE 1
GDP GROWTH RATES FOR THE REGION’S MAJOR ECONOMIES
GDP Growth Rate (per cent)

Country/Region Estimate Forecast
Average annual growth rate

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2012 2007
to to to
2012 2017 2027
Countries
Argentina 8.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.5 5.9 5.7
Brazil 5.4 5.1 4.5 4.4 3.8 4.3 3.7 3.8
Chile 5.2 3.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.9
Colombia 7.5 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2
Mexico 3.2 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.6
Peru 9.0 8.4 5.9 6.1 5.7 6.3 4.8 5.0
Venezuela 8.4 7.0 6.3 6.1 5.3 5.9 4.3 4.2
Regions
Latin America and
Caribbean 5.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2
North America 2.1 1.4 0.4 2.4 3.1 2.0 2.3 2.4
Europe 3.1 1.8 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.2
Asia-Pacific 7.4 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.1 2.0 2.3 5.5
Middle East 5.4 6.1 5.2 4.1 4.2 6.1 5.7 3.9
Africa 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 4.7 3.9 5.0
Total World 4.8 3.9 3.4 4.2 4.3 5.7 5.1 4.0
Note: Regional growth rates based on all the countries in the region.
Source: ICAO/Global Insight.
3.3 Yields trends and assumptions
3.3.1 The prospects for airline yields are closely related to cost developments and market
conditions in the airline industry. Changes in fuel prices have had important effects on costs, and hence
on both financial returns and airline yields, at certain times in the past. After soaring in 1999 and 2000,
fuel prices declined moderately in 2001 and have risen continuously since then until July 2008 when they
reached record breaking levels inflicting financial strain on the world airline industry. Since August-2008,
oil prices have declined dramatically to reach levels below 50$/barrel. It is anticipated that the substantial
price hikes of 2007 and the first half of 2008 will continue to have a notable impact on the aviation
industry in the short term; after which they are expected to recover and stabilize, remaining moderate
between 80 and 100$/barrel. These various cost pressures will provide a benchmark for airline yields,
with revenues needing to be sufficient to cover costs over the long term.
-8-
3.3.2 Figure 2 depicts the developments in average yields over the past decade for the six route
major groups considered in this report. Overall, it shows that average yields on routes linking the
CAR/SAM region to other regions are lower than those within the region. It also shows that the declining
trend reversed in 2004, when yields in general started to increase. Faced with increasing fuel costs,
airlines managed to increase their fares in conjunction with other productivity improvements such as
higher load factors and aircraft utilization.
FIGURE 2
DEVELOPMENTS IN AVERAGE PASSENGER YIELDS (1997-2007)

15.0
South America – Central America/Caribbean
Intra Central America/Caribbean
10.0
North America – South & Central
America/Caribbean
(US cents)
Intra South America
South Atlantic
5.0
Mid Atlantic
0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3.3.3 Yields assumptions are provided in Table 2. Yields are expected to increase in mature
markets and in markets with limited competition and to decline moderately on growing markets with
increasing competition.
TABLE 2
YIELDS CHANGE ASSUMPTIONS (PER CENT)
Route Groups 2007-2012 2012-2017 2017-2027

(%) (%) (%)
South Atlantic 2.0 1.0 0.0
Mid-Atlantic 2.0 1.0 0.0
Intra-South America -1.5 -1.0 -0.5
Between South America and
Central America/Caribbean -1.1 0.5 0.0
Intra-Central America/Caribbean 2.7 0.5 0.5
Between North America and South America
and Central America/Caribbean 2.5 1.5 0.5
-9-
3.4 Analysis of Load Factors and Capacity
3.4.1 The projections for load factors and average aircraft seating capacity for the period up to
2027 have been developed using the approach described in the Methodology section.
3.4.2 Figure 3 below depicts the historical load factors for the major route groups to, from and
within the CAR/SAM region and shows that since the year 2000, airlines have been increasing load
factors as part of their efficiency improvement strategies.
FIGURE 3
HISTORICAL LOAD FACTORS (2000-2007)

90
85
Mid Atlantic
80
South Atlantic
75
(Per cent)
North America – South & Central

70 America/Caribbean Intra South America
65
Intra Central America/Caribbean

60
55
South America – Central America/Caribbean
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3.4.3 Table 3 below shows the load factors. Compared to 2007 levels, load factors are
projected to be significantly higher in 2027 on all route groups with the exception of the South Atlantic
and Mid-Atlantic where they are anticipated to increase only marginally.
TABLE 3
ANALYSIS OF LOAD FACTORS (PER CENT)
Route Groups Historical Forecast

2000 2004 2007 2012 2017 2027
South Atlantic 77 77.0 83.7 83.7 85.0 85

Mid-Atlantic 79 78.7 82.9 82.9 85.0 85
Intra-South America 61 64.6 74.1 74.1 77.0 80
Central America/Caribbean 53 69.1 72.4 72.4 74.8 80
Intra-Central America/Caribbean 65 64.7 67.7 67.7 71.0 78
and Central America/Caribbean 70 70.0 76.6 76.6 79.3 85
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3.4.4 The evolution of the average aircraft seats for each of the route groups for the period
2000-2007 and the projected average aircraft seats for the target years 2012, 2017 and 2027 are provided
in Table 4.
TABLE 4
ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY (AVERAGE AIRCRAFT SEATS)
Route Groups Historical Forecast

2000 2004 2007 2012 2017 2027
South Atlantic 283 281 281 281 281 280

Mid-Atlantic 304 304 292 291 291 290
Intra-South America 162 160 164 168 172 180
Central America/Caribbean 166 163 156 157 158 160
Intra-Central America/Caribbean 92 96 100 104 107 115
Between North America and South America and
Central America/Caribbean 175 167 166 165 167 170
3.4.5 The average aircraft seats in 2027 are expected to vary from a low of 115 seats for the
Intra Central America/Caribbean route group to a high of 290 seats for the Mid-Atlantic route group.
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4 FORECASTS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC AND AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FOR
MAJOR ROUTE GROUPS TO, FROM AND WITHIN THE LATIN AMERICAN AND
CARIBBEAN REGION
4.1 South Atlantic
4.1.1 Table 5 a) depicts the development of the South Atlantic traffic for selected periods
between 1997-2007 and projections for traffic up to 2027. Passenger traffic grew at an average annual
rate of 8.2 per cent, from some 3.4 million passengers in 1997 to about 7.5 million passengers in 2007.
4.1.2 For the period 2007-2027, passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average annual
growth rate of 5.4 per cent, reaching approximately 21.5 million passengers in the year 2027.
TABLE 5 a)
Passengers Load Average

Year (Million) Factor Seats
Historical
1997 3.40 74.4 287
2003 5.30 77.0 309
2004 6.43 76.0 339
2005 6.77 79.6 325
2006 6.79 84.3 286
2007 7.46 83.7 281
Forecast 2012 9.60 83.7 281

2017 12.12 85.0 281
2027 21.48 85.0 280
Average Annual
Growth (Per cent) 1997-2007 8.2 1.2 0.3
2007-2012 5.2 0.0 -0.6
2012-2017 4.8 0.3 0.0
2007-2027 5.4 0.1 -0.2
4.1.3 The aircraft movements for the period 2007-2027 are projected to grow at an average
annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent, reaching over 90 000 movements in the year 2027, as illustrated in
Table 5b).
TABLE 5 b)
Year Aircraft Movements
Historic 2007 30 749*
Forecast 2012 40 805

2017 50 732
2027 90 252
Average Annual Growth
(Per cent) 2007-2012 5.8
2012-2017 4.5
2007-2027 5.5
* OAG data
- 12 -
4.1.4 Aircraft movements forecast of the top 25 city-pairs for the South Atlantic route group
are illustrated in Table 5 c).
TABLE 5 c)
Total Total Average

Rank City Pair Aircraft Aircraft Annual
Movements1/ Movements1/ Growth (Per
20072/ 2027 cent)
2007-2027
1 Madrid-Buenos Aires 3 345 11 787 6.5

2 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Paris(CDG) 2 921 8 523 5.5
3 Santiago(Intl)-Madrid 1 730 5 048 5.5
4 Sao Paulo(Intl) -London(Heathrow) 1 665 5 867 6.5
5 Rio De Janeiro(Intl) -Paris(CDG) 1 559 6 033 7.0
6 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Madrid 1 543 3 721 4.5
7 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Frankfurt 1 523 3 673 4.5
8 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Milan (Malpensa) 1 284 4 969 7.0
9 Rio De Janeiro(Intl) -Madrid 1 112 2 213 3.5
10 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Lisbon 992 2 894 5.5
11 Rio De Janeiro(Intl) -Lisbon 943 3 323 6.5
12 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Johannesburg 878 3 094 6.5
13 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Amsterdam 730 1 761 4.5
14 Paris(CDG) -Buenos Aires 730 2 572 6.5
15 Rome(Fiumicino) -Buenos Aires 727 1 447 3.5
16 Sao Paulo(Intl) -Munich 726 2 118 5.5
17 Salvador -Lisbon 724 2 551 6.5
18 Lisbon-Fortaleza 723 1 744 4.5
19 Recife-Lisbon 722 2 544 6.5
20 Zurich -Sao Paulo(Intl) 676 1 221 3.0
21 Montevideo -Madrid 622 1 815 5.5
22 Natal -Lisbon 521 1 520 5.5
23 Santiago-Paris(CDG) 450 1 313 5.5
24 Milan (Malpensa) -Buenos Aires 414 1 208 5.5
25 Salvador -Madrid 348 1 116 6.0
Total above routes 27 608 84 073 5.7

All other routes 31 41 61 79 3.4
TOTAL 30 749 90 252 5.5

1/ Both directions.
2/ OAG data.
- 13 -
4.2 Mid-Atlantic
4.2.1 Table 6 a) depicts the development of the Mid Atlantic traffic for selected periods
between 1997-2007 and projections for traffic up to 2027. Mid-Atlantic traffic grew from 4.4 million
passengers in 1997 to slightly over 8 million passengers in 2007, which is an average annual growth rate
of 6.3 per cent.
4.2.2 For the period 2007-2027, passenger traffic is forecast to grow at an average annual
growth rate of 5.7 per cent, reaching approximately 24.3 million passengers in the year 2027.
TABLE 6 a)

Year
(Million) Factor Seats
Historical
1997 4.39 76.8 297
2003 6.66 78.7 296
2004 7.00 78.7 301
2005 7.37 82.5 305
2006 7.72 80.3 297
2007 8.08 82.9 292
Forecast 2012 10.50 82.9 291

2017 13.40 85.0 291
2027 24.26 85.0 290
Average Annual
Growth (Per cent) 1997-2007 6.3 0.8 -0.2
2007-2012 5.4 0.0 -0.1
2012-2017 5.0 0.5 0.0
2007-2027 5.7 0.1 0.0
4.2.3 The aircraft movements for the period 2007-2027 are projected to increase at an average
annual growth rate of 5.6 per cent, reaching some 157 000 movements in the year 2027, as illustrated in
Table 6 b).
TABLE 6 b)
Historic 2007 52 785*

2017 85 702
2027 156 960
(Per cent) 2007-2012 5.5
2012-2017 4.5
2007-2027 5.6
* OAG data.
- 14 -
4.2.4 Aircraft movements’ forecasts of the top 25 city-pairs for the Mid-Atlantic route group
are illustrated in Table 6 c).
TABLE 6 c)
Total Total Average Annual

Rank City Pair Aircraft Aircraft Growth (Per
Movements1/ Movements1/ cent)
20072/ 2027 2007-2027
1 Pointe A Pitre - Paris(Orly) 2 859 8 342 5.5

2 Paris(Orly) - Ft. De France 2 756 7 312 5.0
3 Mexico City( Intl) - Madrid 2 125 6 200 5.5
4 Paris(CDG) - Mexico City(Intl) 1 987 8 440 7.5
5 Madrid - Bogota 1 830 7 774 7.5
6 Madrid - Havana 1 764 6 826 7.0
7 London(Gatwick) - Barbados 1 754 7 451 7.5
8 Madrid - Caracas 1 639 6 342 7.0
9 Santo Domingo - Madrid 1 549 5 458 6.5
10 Madrid - Lima 1 323 3 934 5.6
11 Curacao - Amsterdam 1 121 3 333 5.6
12 Madrid - Guayaquil 1 099 3 268 5.6
13 London(Gatwick) - Antigua 934 3 614 7.0
14 Bonaire - Amsterdam 849 3 606 7.5
15 Paramaribo - Amsterdam 754 2 242 5.6
16 London(Gatwick) - Bermuda 745 2 389 6.0
17 Mexico City(Intl) - Amsterdam 730 2 171 5.6
18 Paris(CDG) - Bogota 730 1 318 3.0
19 Mexico City(Intl)- Frankfurt 728 1 315 3.0
20 Paris(CDG) - Caracas 724 2 322 6.0
21 San Jose(Santamaria) - Madrid 722 2 147 5.6
22 Paris(Orly) - Cayenne 719 2 782 7.0
23 Frankfurt - Caracas 676 2 872 7.5
24 St. Maarten - Paris(CDG) 646 2 276 6.5
25 Madrid - Cancun 599 2 318 7.0

TOTAL 52 785 156 960 5.6

1/ Both directions.
2/ OAG data
- 15 -
4.3 Intra-South America
4.3.1 Table 7 a) depicts the development of traffic within South America for selected periods
between 1997-2007 and projections for traffic up to 2027. The passenger traffic within South America
increased from 4.3 million in 1997 to approximately 13.5 million passengers in 2007, which reflects an
average annual growth rate of 12.2 per cent.
4.3.2 For the period 2007-2027, passenger traffic is forecast to grow at an average annual rate
of 8.8 per cent, reaching over 73 million passengers in the year 2027.
TABLE 7 a)

Year
Historical
1997 4.30 64.7 170
2003 7.11 60.9 160
2004 8.03 64.6 160
2005 9.78 73.5 168
2006 10.81 70.9 167
2007 13.55 74.1 164
Forecast 2012 22.74 74.1 168

2017 35.50 77.0 172
2027 73.65 80.0 180
Average Annual
Growth (Per cent) 1997-2007 12.2 1.4 -0.4
2017-2012 10.9 0.0 0.5
2012-2017 9.3 0.8 0.5
2007-2027 8.8 0.4 0.5
4.3.3 The aircraft movements forecast for the period 2007-2027 are projected to increase at an
average annual growth rate of 7.9 per cent, reaching around 497 000 in the year 2027, as illustrated in
Table 7 b).
TABLE 7 b)
Historic 2007 108 523*
Forecast 2012 177 515

2017 260 507
2027 497 008
Average Annual Growth 2007-2012 10.3
(Per cent) 2012-2017 8.0
2007-2027 7.9
* OAG data.
- 16 -
4.3.4 Aircraft movement forecasts of the top 25 traffic flows for the Intra-South America route
group are illustrated in Table 7 c).
TABLE 7 c)

Rank City Pair Aircraft Aircraft Growth(Per
Movements1/ Movements1/ cent)
20072/ 2027 2007-2027
1 Santiago(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 12 185 39 079 6.0

2 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 11 843 37 982 6.0
3 Montevideo - Buenos Aires(Newbery) 5 752 22 258 7.0
4 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Santiago(Intl) 5 484 33 681 9.5
5 Rio De Janeiro(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 4 979 25 453 8.5
6 Quito - Bogota 4 260 16 485 7.0
7 Santiago(Intl) - Lima 4 208 21 511 8.5
8 Lima - Buenos Aires 3 836 21 499 9.0
9 Caracas - Bogota 3 799 17 707 8.0
10 Buenos Aires(Pistarini) - Asuncion 3 012 11 655 7.0
11 Lima - Bogota 2 934 18 019 9.5
12 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Lima 2 596 15 944 9.5
13 Punta Del Este - Buenos Aires(Newbery) 2 324 6 781 5.5
14 Lima - Caracas 2 305 14 156 9.5
15 Montevideo - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 2 134 5 662 5.0
16 Porto Alegre - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 1 939 6 219 6.0
17 Quito - Lima 1 839 7 812 7.5
18 Porto Alegre - Montevideo 1 798 9 191 8.5
19 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Ciudad Del Este 1 781 10 938 9.5
20 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Montevideo 1 501 7 673 8.5
21 Santiago(Intl) - Mendoza 1 460 5 145 6.5
22 Santa Cruz(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 1 364 5 794 7.5
23 Lima - La Paz 1 281 4 108 6.0
24 Guayaquil - Bogota 1 182 7 259 9.5
25 Santiago(Intl) - Cordoba 1 182 3 791 6.0

TOTAL 108 523 497 008 7.9

1/ Both directions.
2/ OAG data.
- 17 -
4.4 Between South America and Central America/Caribbean
4.4.1 Table 8 a) depicts the development of traffic between South America and Central
America/Caribbean for selected periods between 1997-2007 and projections for traffic up to 2027. The
passenger traffic increased from about one million in 1997 to almost five million in 2007, which reflects
an average annual growth rate of 17.2 per cent.
4.4.2 For the period 2007-2027, passenger traffic is forecast to increase at an average annual
growth rate of 8.9 per cent, reaching slightly above 27 million passengers in 2027.
TABLE 8 a)

Year
Historical
1997 1.02 54.0 165
2003 5.93 4.10 162
2004 6.77 4.81 161
2005 6.56 4.59 157
2006 4.59 70.0 157
2007 4.98 72.4 156
Forecast 2012 7.93 72.4 157

2017 11.91 74.8 158
2027 27.32 80.0 160
Average Annual
Growth (Per cent) 1997-2007 17.2 3.0 -0.5
2007-2012 9.7 0.0 0.1
2012-2017 8.5 0.7 0.1
2007-2027 8.9 0.5 0.1
annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent, reaching somewhat above 282 000 movements in the year 2027, as
illustrated in Table 8 b).
TABLE 8 b)
Historic 2007 58 378*

2017 133 450
2027 282 354
(per cent) 2007-2012 9.6
2012-2017 7.6
2007-2027 8.2
* OAG data.
- 18 -
4.4.4 Aircraft movement forecasts of the top 25 city pairs for the route group between South
America and Central America/Caribbean are provided in Table 8 c).
TABLE 8 c)
Total Aircraft Total Aircraft Average Annual

Rank City Pair Movements1/ Movements1/ Growth (Per cent)
20072/ 2027 2007-2027
1 Panama City - Bogota 4 008 18 681 8.0

2 Pt. of Spain - Georgetown 3 090 15 796 8.5
3 Las Piedras - Aruba 2 114 5609 5.0
4 Curacao - Caracas 2 035 5 399 5.0
5 Panama City - Lima 1 847 7 147 7.0
6 Mexico City(Juarez Intl) - Bogota 1 844 9 427 8.5
7 Georgetown - Barbados 1 737 8 096 8.0
8 Ft. De France - Cayenne 1 625 6 903 7.5
9 Caracas - Aruba 1 518 4 429 5.5
10 Mexico City - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 1 508 7 294 8.2
11 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Panama City 1 498 7 245 8.2
12 Panama City - Medellin 1 472 5 187 6.5
13 Panama City - Caracas 1 467 4 705 6.0
14 Panama City - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 1 460 5 145 6.5
15 Valencia - Curacao 1 457 4 251 5.5
16 Panama City - Guayaquil 1 422 3 773 5.0
17 Quito - Panama City 1 420 5 004 6.5
18 Santiago - Panama City 1 419 6 863 8.2
19 Panama City - Cali 1 377 4 018 5.5
20 Santiago - Mexico City(Juarez Intl) 1 222 4 729 7.0
21 Panama City - Cartagena 1 111 4 299 7.0
22 Pt. of Spain - Porlamar 1 100 6 756 9.5
23 Mexico City(Juarez Intl) - Lima 1 073 4 152 7.0
24 San Jose - Lima 1 036 4 829 8.0
25 Port of Spain - Caracas 1 035 4 824 8.0

All other routes 17 483 117 794 10.0
TOTAL 58 378 282 354 8.2

1/ Both directions.
2/ OAG data.
- 19 -
4.5 Intra-Central America/Caribbean
4.5.1 Table 9 a) depicts the development of traffic within the Central America/Caribbean for
selected periods between 1997-2007 and projections for traffic up to 2027. The passenger traffic
increased from about 3.1 million passengers in 1997 to about 4 million passengers in 2007, which reflects
an average annual growth rate of 2.6 per cent.
4.5.2 For the period 2007-2027, passenger traffic is forecast to grow at an average annual rate
of 8.5 per cent, reaching over 20 million passengers in 2027.
TABLE 9 a)

Year
Historical
1997 3.10 62.4 110
2003 3.67 64.7 105
2004 3.46 63.6 95
2005 3.51 63.4 95
2006 3.51 63.4 95
2007 4.02 67.7 100
Forecast 2012 6.46 67.7 104

2017 9.91 71.0 107
2027 20.56 78.0 115
Average Annual
Growth (Per cent) 1997-2007 2.6 0.8 -0.9
2007-2012 10.0 0.0 0.8
2012-2017 8.9 1.0 0.6
2007-2027 8.5 0.7 0.7
annual growth rate of 7.0 per cent, reaching about 1 017 500 movements in the year 2027, as illustrated in
Table 9 b).
Table 9 b)
Historic 2007 263 479*
Forecast 2012 407 395

2017 579 233
2027 1 017 448
(Per cent) 2007-2012 9.1
2012-2017 7.3
2007-2027 7.0
* OAG data.
- 20 -
4.5.4 Aircraft movement forecasts of the top 25 city-pairs for the Intra Central
America/Caribbean route group are illustrated in Table 9 c).
TABLE 9 c)

Rank City Pair Movements1/ Movements1/ Growth (Per cent)
20072/ 2027 2007-2027
1 St. Maarten - St. Barthelemy 17 967 39 368 4.0

2 St. Thomas(Intl) - San Juan(Intl) 16 017 35 095 4.0
3 Tortola/Beef Is. - San Juan(Intl) 13 309 38 832 5.5
4 Pointe A Pitre - Ft. De France 11 368 36 459 6.0
5 St. Croix(Intl) - San Juan(Intl) 10 397 36 635 6.5
6 Curacao - Aruba 7 601 26 783 6.5
7 San Jose(Santamaria) - Panama City 4 689 15 038 6.0
8 Santo Domingo - San Juan(Intl) 4 219 14 866 6.5
9 St. Maarten - Anguilla 3 913 18 238 8.0
10 St. Maarten - San Juan(Intl) 3 275 8 690 5.0
11 Montserrat - Antigua 3 169 8 408 5.0
12 San Juan(Intl) - Punta Cana 3 122 13 262 7.5
13 Flores - Belize City 2 932 13 666 8.0
14 St. Lucia(Vigie) - San Juan(Intl) 2 838 5 647 3.5
15 Panama City - Mexico City(Juarez Intl) 2 469 9 554 7.0
16 Mexico City(Juarez Int) - Guatemala City 2 297 8 094 6.5
17 San Salvador - Managua 2 233 9 845 7.7
18 San Salvador - Guatemala City 2 210 9 743 7.7
19 San Jose(Santamaria) - Managua 2 181 6 995 6.0
20 St. Maarten - St. Kitts 2 121 9 351 7.7
21 St. Thomas - San Juan(Isla Grande) 2 054 9 056 7.7
22 Santo Domingo - Panama City(Intl) 2 047 8 695 7.5
23 Virgin Gorda - San Juan(Intl) 2 034 11 399 9.0
24 Panama City - Havana 1 996 10 204 8.5
25 St. Maarten - St. Kitts 1 972 8 694 7.7

All other routes 135 049 604 830 7.8
TOTAL 263479 1 017 448 7.0

1/ Both directions.
2/ OAG data.
- 21 -
4.6 Between North America and South America and Central America/Caribbean
4.6.1 Table 10 a) depicts the development of traffic traffic between North America and South
America and Central America/Caribbean for selected periods between 1997-2007 and projections for
traffic up to 2027. Passenger traffic increased from approximately 39.2 million in 1997 to 57 million
passengers in 2007, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 3.8 per cent.
4.6.2 For the period 2007-2027, passenger traffic is expected to increase at an average annual
growth rate of 5.7 per cent, reaching some 173 million passengers in the year 2027.
TABLE 10 a)

Year
Historical
1997 39.20 62.0 189
2003 41.23 68.0 168
2004 47.42 70.0 166
2005 50.83 73.0 166
2006 53.88 74.4 166
2007 56.96 76.6 166
Forecast 2012 75.66 76.6 165

2017 97.58 79.3 167
2027 172.97 85.0 170
Average Annual
Growth (Per cent) 1997-2007 3.8 2.1 -1.3
2007-2012 5.8 0.0 -0.1
2012-2017 5.2 0.7 0.2
2007-2027 5.7 0.5 0.1
annual growth rate of five per cent, reaching some 1 625 700 movements in the year 2027, as illustrated
in Table 10 b).
TABLE 10 b)
Historic 2007 612 709*
Forecast 2012 818 252

2017 1 007 195
2027 1 625 699
(Per cent) 2007-2012 6.0
2012-2017 4.2
2007-2027 5.0
* OAG data
- 22 -
4.6.4 Aircraft movement forecasts of the top 25 city pairs for the route group Between North
America and South America/Central America/Caribbean are illustrated in Table 10 c).
TABLE 10 c)

Rank City Pair Aircraft Aircraft Growth (Per cent)
Movements1/ Movements1/ 2007-2027
20072/ 2027
1 Nassau - Ft. Lauderdale 12 124 38 883 6.0
2 Nassau - Miami 11 038 29 287 5.0
3 Mexico City - Los Angeles 8 875 19 446 4.0
4 San Juan(Intl) - New York(JFK) 7 954 19 183 4.5
5 Mexico City - Houston 7 948 19 168 4.5
6 Los Angeles - Guadalajara 6 978 12 603 3.0
7 San Juan(Intl) - Orlando 6 939 22 254 6.0
8 Miami - Mexico City 6 517 15 717 4.5
9 Monterrey - Houston 6 501 17 249 5.0
10 Ft. Lauderdale - Freeport 6 185 13 552 4.0
11 San Juan(Intl) - Miami 5 320 9 609 3.0
12 Mexico City- Chicago(O'Hare) 5 041 13 375 5.0
13 Mexico City- Dallas/Ft. Worth 4 998 9 027 3.0
14 New York(JFK) - Mexico City 4 914 17 315 6.5
15 Miami - Caracas 4 700 8 489 3.0
16 Marsh Harbour - Ft. Lauderdale 4 406 11 690 5.0
17 Miami - Cancun 4 298 7 763 3.0
18 Los Cabos - Los Angeles 4 290 11 383 5.0
19 Houston - Guadalajara 4 274 15 060 6.5
20 Dallas/Ft. Worth - Cancun 4 266 11 319 5.0
21 Houston- Cancun 4 031 7 280 3.0
22 San Juan(Intl) - Ft. Lauderdale 3 883 10 303 5.0
23 Santiago - New York(JFK) 3 811 6 883 3.0
24 San Juan(Intl) - Newark/New York 3 766 6 802 3.0
25 West Palm Beach - Nassau 3 670 9 738 5.0

All other routes 465 982 1 262 321 5.1
TOTAL 612709 1625699 5.0

1/ Both directions.
2/ OAG data.
- 23 -
4.7 Summary of Major Route Group Forecasts
4.7.1 Passenger Forecasts
4.7.1.1 Table 11 is a summary of the passenger traffic forecasts for the six route groups to, from
and within the CAR/SAM Region for the target periods 2012, 2017 and 2027.
TABLE 11
PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECASTS, 2007-2027

(%)
2007 2012 2007
Major Route Group 2007 2012 2017 2027
to to to
(mill.) (mill.) (mill.) (mill.) 2012 2017 2027
South Atlantic 7.46 9.60 12.12 21.48 5.2 4.8 5.4

Mid-Atlantic 8.08 10.50 13.40 24.26 5.4 5.0 5.7
Intra-South America 13.55 22.74 35.50 73.65 10.9 9.3 8.8
Between South America
and Central America/Caribbean 4.98 7.93 11.91 27.32 9.7 8.5 8.9
Intra-Central America and Caribbean 4.02 6.46 9.91 20.56 10.0 8.9 8.5
and Central America/Caribbean 56.96 75.66 97.58 172.97 5.8 5.2 5.7
Total 95.05 132.90 180.43 340.24 6.9 6.3 6.6
4.7.1.2 Overall passenger traffic to, from and within the region is projected to grow at an average
annual rate of 6.6 per cent. It is anticipated that the average growth rates for the major route groups will
range from a low of 5.4 per cent (South Atlantic) to a high of 8.9 per cent (Between South America and
Central America/Caribbean).
- 24 -
4.7.2 Aircraft movements forecast
4.7.2.1 Table 12 depicts the aircraft movements for the major route groups to, from and within
the CAR/SAM Region for the target periods 2012, 2017 and 2027.
TABLE 12
AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST, 2007-2027

(%)
2007 2012 2007
Major Route Group 2007* 2012 2017 2027
to to to
2012 2017 2027
South Atlantic 30 749 40 805 50 732 90 252 5.8 4.5 5.5

Mid-Atlantic 52 785 68 857 85 702 156 960 5.5 4.5 5.6
Intra-South America 108 523 177 515 260 507 497 008 10.3 8.0 7.9
Central America/ Caribbean 58 378 92 446 133 450 282 354 9.6 7.6 8.2
Intra-Central America/Caribbean 263 479 407 395 579 233 1 017 448 9.1 7.3 7.0
/Central America/Caribbean 612 709 818 252 1 007 195 1 625 699 6.0 4.2 5.0
Total 1 126 623 1 605 270 2 116 819 3 669 722 7.3 5.7 6.1
* OAG data
4.7.2.2 The overall number of movements is forecast to increase from slightly over 1.1 million in
2007 to about 3.7 million in 2027, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 6.1 per cent. The
average growth rates for the route groups will range from a low of five per cent (Between North America
and South America/Central America/Caribbean) to a high of 8.2 per cent (Intra South America and
Between South America and Central America/Caribbean).
——————
- 25 -
APPENDIX A
PEAK-PERIOD ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL AMERICAN FIR
The Secretariat carried out a detailed analysis of the FIR traffic data for the year 2007, provided by
COCESNA. In order to define the peak period parameters, a computer program was developed using
Microsoft Access to perform the necessary queries and to generate the various output results required by
the planning, implementation and provision of air navigation services.
The FIR traffic data provided by COCESNA includes the following fields :
Name Type Size (field)
Date_Flight Date/Time 8
Time_entry Date/Time 8
Flight_Number Text 10
Registration Text 15
Type Text 10
Distance Integer long 4
Time_Exit Date/Time 8
Point_entry Text 5
Point_exit Text 5
Origin Text 5
Destination Text 5
Flight_level Integer long 4
- 26 -
The computer program provides the following output results, by control centre :
1. Monthly traffic
2. Daily traffic analysis

2.1. Daily profile of traffic
2.2. Maximum, minimum and average daily traffic
2.3. Daily traffic ranking
2.4. Daily traffic probability distribution
3. Hourly traffic analysis

3.1. Hourly Traffic (whole year)
3.2. Traffic profile by specified hour
3.3. Maximum, minimum and average hourly traffic
3.4. Traffic peaking by specified hour
3.5. Hourly traffic Probability distribution
4. Annual traffic analysis

4.1. Aircraft movements by aircraft type
4.2. Aircraft movements by flight level
4.3. Aircraft movements by entry point
4.4. Aircraft movements by exit point
4.5. Aircraft movements by pair of entry point - exit point
4.6. Aircraft movements by origin and destination
4.7. Detailed analysis of aircraft movement traffic (through data field combinations)
5. Traffic density analysis

5.1. Time interval density
5.2. Point in time density
- 27 -
1. Monthly traffic
The following table illustrates the monthly traffic for the Central American FIR for the year 2007:
Central American FIR

2007
Month Movements
January 10970
February 10092
March 11244
April 10602
May 10534
June 10862
July 11863
August 11749
September 10140
October 10664
November 10870
December 12363
2. Daily traffic analysis
2.1. Daily profile of traffic
A chart illustrating the daily profile of traffic by control centre for a period of one year can be produced.
This helps mainly to identify any seasonality pattern in the annual traffic. The following figure shows the
daily profile for Central American FIR:
Daily profile of traffic

Central American FIR, 2007
500
400
300
200
7
7
7
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
- 28 -
2.2. Maximum, minimum and average daily traffic
Beyond, the graphical display, the maximum, the minimum and the average daily traffic can be produced
for the Central American FIR:
Maximum daily traffic: 475

Minimum daily traffic : 237
Average daily traffic: 361
2.3. Daily traffic ranking
Among the other outputs, the daily traffic can be ranked by number of flights. This helps identify the
busiest day and the least busy day for the whole year period (365 days). For illustration purposes, the
busiest 20 days of Central American FIR are displayed in the table below:

2007
Rank Date Movements
1 19-Aug-07 475
2 22-Dec-07 461
3 23-Dec-07 447
4 07-Jul-07 444
5 30-Dec-07 442
6 28-Jul-07 441
7 20-Dec-07 440
8 18-Aug-07 439
9 27-Dec-07 438
10 21-Dec-07 438
11 30-Jun-07 436
12 16-Dec-07 433
13 21-Jul-07 432
14 29-Dec-07 431
15 28-Dec-07 430
16 11-Aug-07 429
17 31-Mar-07 429
18 23-Jun-07 427
19 15-Dec-07 426
20 14-Jul-07 423
Note: The output result includes all 365 days.
2.4. Daily traffic probability distribution
The data can be used to build a normal probability distribution for the daily traffic. Such a distribution
may be very useful for planning purposes, since it provides for any given daily traffic level, the
probability that the actual traffic will exceed a given level. For example the following chart plotted for
traffic through Central American FIR in 2007 shows that if the capacity is set to 390 flights per day, there
would be under-capacity 20 per cent of the time.
- 29 -
Daily Cumulative Probability Distribution

Central American FIR, 2007
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
237
247
257
267
277
287
297
307
317
327
337
347
357
367
377
387
397
407
417
427
437
447
457
467
Similarly, if one decides to accept a probability of under-capacity of 10 per cent, then the planning
parameter should be around 402 flights per day.
The following table illustrates further the probability distribution and provides further guidance in the
capacity determination process:

2007
Maximum Traffic per day Probability
310 0.05
321 0.1
329 0.15
335 0.2
341 0.25
345 0.3
350 0.35
354 0.4
358 0.45
362 0.5
366 0.55
370 0.6
374 0.65
379 0.7
383 0.75
389 0.8
395 0.85
403 0.9
414 0.95
475 1
- 30 -
3. Hourly traffic analysis
3.1. Hourly Traffic (whole year)
The program calculates the traffic by hour for the whole year and provides a sorted list of traffic by hour
(the maximum size of the sorted list is 24*365= 8760 rows. The following table shows the top 20 hours in
terms of traffic for the whole year:

2007
Rank Date Hour Movements
1 19-Aug-07 16 46
2 27-Jan-07 21 44
3 20-Jan-07 21 43
4 31-Mar-07 20 43
5 17-Feb-07 21 42
6 06-Jan-07 21 41
7 03-Feb-07 21 40
8 24-Feb-07 21 40
9 21-Nov-07 17 40
10 07-Jan-07 21 40
11 07-Dec-07 17 40
12 09-Apr-07 16 40
13 12-May-07 16 39
14 10-Mar-07 21 39
15 21-Dec-07 17 38
16 17-Dec-07 17 38
17 16-Dec-07 17 38
18 31-Mar-07 17 38
19 25-Mar-07 16 37
20 27-Dec-07 17 37
3.2. Traffic profile by specified hour
The application also produces a traffic profile chart by hour for the period of one year. The following
figure illustrates traffic profile for the Central American FIR at 16h00:
Traffic Profile By Hour
16h00
50
40
30
20
10
0
7
7
7
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
- 31 -
The same chart can be plotted for any hour of the day.
3.3. Maximum, minimum and average for a specified hour
Beyond, the graphical display, the application determines the maximum, the minimum and the average
traffic at 16h00 for the Central American FIR:
Maximum daily traffic: 46

Minimum daily traffic : 11
Average daily traffic: 26
3.4. Traffic peaking by specified hour
The following table provides more insight into traffic peaking at 16h00 (by providing the list of the top 20
days for traffic at 16h00):

16h00 traffic 2007
Rank Date Movements
1 19-Aug-07 46
2 09-Apr-07 40
3 12-May-07 39
4 26-May-07 37
5 25-Mar-07 37
6 23-Mar-07 36
7 21-Oct-07 36
8 30-Aug-07 36
9 19-Apr-07 36
10 07-Apr-07 36
11 01-Apr-07 35
12 14-Apr-07 35
13 26-Apr-07 35
14 06-Aug-07 35
15 22-Mar-07 35
16 11-Jun-07 35
17 25-Aug-07 34
18 13-Aug-07 34
19 02-Apr-07 34
20 24-Jul-07 33
Note: The full list has all 365 days.
3.5. Hourly traffic probability distribution
It is also possible, for planning purposes, to calculate the probability that traffic would not exceed a given
level for a particular hour. The following chart illustrates the probability distribution for 16h00 traffic in
the Central American FIR.
- 32 -

16h00 Traffic distribution
1.20 0.20
0.18
1.00
0.16
Cumulative probability
0.14
0.80
Probability
0.12
0.60 0.10
0.08
0.40
0.06
0.04
0.20
0.02
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Number of flights
The following table provides the probability values:

16h00 traffic
Maximum Traffic per hour Probability
1 4.5%
2 10.8%
3 21.6%
4 37.0%
5 54.8%
6 71.7%
7 84.7%
8 93.0%
9 97.3%
10 99.1%
11 99.8%
12 99.9%
13 100.0%
4. Annual traffic analysis
4.1. Aircraft movements by aircraft type
Using the COCESNA FIR traffic data, it is possible to analyse the traffic by aircraft type. The following
chart illustrates the aircraft movements traffic by aircraft type.
- 33 -
Movements by aircraft type

Central American FIR - Year 2007
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
C 0
B
2
2
3
90
4
10
4
3
0
0
0
8
E4
73
73
75
76
72
76
73
76
73
LF
32
31
32
30
25
56
31
55
34
V5
E1
C
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
A
C
A
C
A
G
D
4.2. Aircraft movements by flight level
Using the same set of data, aircraft movements by flight level are illustrated in the figure below:
Movements by flight level

14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
0
0
0
9
3
8
2
1
6
9
9
9
4
7
1
1
4
37
38
40
28
27
23
20
20
20
22
21
21
25
26
24
27
25
26
26
27
29
28
29
- 34 -
4.3. Aircraft movements by entry point
FIR traffic can be aggregated by entry point and sorted by traffic volume (aircraft movements). The table
below shows the top 10 entry points for Central American FIR in 2007.

2007
Rank Entry Point Movements
1 ISEBA 8589
2 PENSO 8031
3 SELEK 8014
4 ERBOR 6658
5 RADON 4229
6 BUFEO 3836
7 LIXAS 3693
8 OTAMI 3500
9 SIGMA 2835
10 NANDO 2745
4.4. Aircraft movements by exit point
FIR traffic can also be aggregated by exit point and sorted by traffic volume (aircraft movements). The
table below shows the top 10 exit points for the Central American FIR in 2007.

2007
Rank Exit Point Movements
1 PENSO 7081
2 ISEBA 6873
3 ERBOR 6103
4 SELEK 5858
5 OTAMI 4768
6 PIRAS 3905
7 LIXAS 3795
8 SATOS 3487
9 ELENA 3277
10 BUFEO 3188
- 35 -
4.5. Aircraft movements by pair of entry point - exit point
In addition, FIR traffic can be aggregated by pair of entry and exit points and sorted by traffic volume
(aircraft movements). The table below shows the top 10 pair of entry and exit points, for the Central
American FIR in 2007.

2007
Rank Entry-Exit Movements
1 ISEBA-ISEBA 5163
2 SELEK-PIRAS 3341
3 PENSO-PENSO 2745
4 ERBOR-ERBOR 2723
5 RADON-SELEK 2271
6 ISEBA-CACHI 2245
7 ERBOR-OTAMI 2089
8 NALDA-COBAN 1983
9 NANDO-TILOT 1920
10 TILOT-NANDO 1907
4.6. Aircraft movements by origin and destination
Moreover, FIR traffic can be aggregated by pair of origin and destination and sorted by traffic volume
(aircraft movements). The table below shows the top origin-destinations, for the Central American FIR in
2007.

2007
Rank Origin-Destination Movements
1 MROC-MPTO 2821
2 MPTO-MROC 2739
3 MROC-KMIA 2663
4 KMIA-MROC 2342
5 KMIA-MGGT 2218
6 MHLM-KMIA 1961
7 MGGT-KMIA 1861
8 MSLP-KLAX 1698
9 KLAX-MSLP 1694
10 MGGT-MROC 1690
4.7. Detailed analysis of aircraft movement traffic (through data field combinations)
The analysis of FIR data can be extended further through the production of tables and charts combining
relevant data fields such as aircraft type, flight level, pair of entry and exit points, pair of origin and
destination and type of traffic (inbound, outbound, overflight, within FIR).
For example, the knowledge of the number of aircraft movements by aircraft type and by flight level
would give an indication about the proportion of aircraft not flying at their optimum flight level.
The figure below illustrates the traffic by aircraft type and by flight level for the Central American FIR:
- 36 -
Movement by aircraft type and flight Level

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2
90
0
7
11
0
8
72
73
73
75
76
76
76
J7
73
30
31
31
32
32
V5
E1
D
B
R
A
M
C
<> 220 240 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410
All combinations of the data fields above can be used to produce similar charts and/or tables.
5. Traffic density analysis
It is possible to perform a traffic density analysis either for a time interval or for a specific point in time.
5.1. Time interval density
The following table lists all the flights for the annual peak hour which occurs on the 19th of August 2007
between 16h00 and 17h00 .
This list includes all flights that have either entered or exited the Dakar FIR during that hour or remained
in the FIR for the whole hour. For this reason, the number of flights (64) is higher than the peak-hour
traffic (46), which includes only the flights that have entered the FIR during the same hour.
Date Aircraft Type Entry-Exit Time of Entry Time of Exit Origin-Destination

19/08/07 A320 ROPOL-PILKO 14:09:00 16:02:00 SVMI-MMMX
19/08/07 B732 RADON-SELEK 15:00:00 16:14:00 MROC-KEWR
19/08/07 A320 NAGEL-PABEL 15:21:00 16:18:00 MSLP-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 SELEK-PIRAS 15:29:00 16:53:00 KEWR-MROC
19/08/07 B732 ABPZA-PENSO 15:32:00 16:27:00 SKBO-KIAH
19/08/07 MD80 TELAX-SELEK 15:32:00 16:13:00 SKCG-KMIA
19/08/07 A300 PELRA-SELEK 15:35:00 16:19:00 SPIM-KMIA
19/08/07 A300 LIXAS-SELEK 15:41:00 18:08:00 SEGU-KMIA
19/08/07 B752 PELRA-SELEK 15:43:00 16:28:00 SEQU-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 PELRA-SELEK 15:45:00 16:32:00 MPTO-KEWR
19/08/07 B752 RELTA-ASOKU 15:47:00 16:09:00 MSLP-KLAX
- 37 -
Date Aircraft Type Entry-Exit Time of Entry Time of Exit Origin-Destination
19/08/07 B763 ALSAL-LIXAS 15:47:00 17:54:00 MMMX-SAEZ
19/08/07 B737 PELRA-SELEK 15:49:00 16:36:00 MPTO-MUHA
19/08/07 B763 SELEK-PELRA 15:51:00 16:42:00 KMIA-SKBO
19/08/07 B732 BUFEO-PENSO 15:57:00 17:17:00 MPTO-KIAH
19/08/07 A319 SELEK-IMOLA 15:58:00 17:21:00 CYYZ-MRLB
19/08/07 YK42 OTAMI-ELENA 16:01:00 16:52:00 MGGT-MROC
19/08/07 B732 PENSO-PENSO 16:02:00 16:02:00 KIAH-MZBZ
19/08/07 B737 ANSON-ASOKU 16:04:00 17:23:00 MPTO-MMMX
19/08/07 MD83 PELRA-DANUL 16:05:00 16:55:00 SKBQ-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 PENSO-PENSO 16:06:00 16:06:00 SKCL-KIAH
19/08/07 A300 SELEK-PIRAS 16:10:00 17:15:00 KMIA-MROC
19/08/07 B732 SIGMA-ABPZA 16:12:00 17:04:00 KIAH-MPTO
19/08/07 A300 ANIKO-LIBIS 16:14:00 16:57:00 KMIA-MNMG
19/08/07 B737 SELEK-PELRA 16:15:00 17:03:00 KATL-MPTO
19/08/07 B737 PENSO-NALMA 16:16:00 16:27:00 KIAH-MHLM
19/08/07 B732 PENSO-ULAPO 16:22:00 17:28:00 KIAH-MROC
19/08/07 B762 BUFEO-DUNEL 16:24:00 17:26:00 SKBO-MMMX
19/08/07 A320 RADIM-LIXAS 16:26:00 17:02:00 MSLP-SPIM
19/08/07 B752 SELEK-AMPZA 16:26:00 17:16:00 KATL-MROC
19/08/07 B737 ISEBA-CACHI 16:28:00 16:42:00 MPTO-MROC
19/08/07 B752 NALDA-COBAN 16:28:00 16:47:00 KIAH-MGGT
19/08/07 C750 PENSO-UPALA 16:28:00 17:34:00 KAPA-MROC
19/08/07 A320 TILOT-NANDO 16:30:00 16:41:00 MGGT-KMIA
19/08/07 B762 ULAPO-ROMBO 16:31:00 17:01:00 MROC-MHLM
19/08/07 A320 KALPA-ERBOR 16:33:00 16:42:00 MGGT-MMMX
19/08/07 A319 RADON-SELEK 16:34:00 17:49:00 MROC-KFLL
19/08/07 A319 SELEK-RADON 16:34:00 17:57:00 KFLL-MROC
19/08/07 B737 SELEK-RAKEL 16:34:00 17:34:00 KATL-MRLB
19/08/07 C560 ULAPO-TALAG 16:34:00 17:06:00 MRPV-MHRO
19/08/07 E190 PELRA-TAKUX 16:34:00 17:24:00 MPTO-MMUN
19/08/07 B737 PELRA-SELEK 16:39:00 17:25:00 MPTO-KMCO
19/08/07 B733 PENSO-BERTA 16:40:00 17:29:00 KIAH-MRLB
19/08/07 B752 PELRA-SELEK 16:42:00 17:27:00 SPIM-KATL
19/08/07 B752 PELRA-SELEK 16:42:00 17:28:00 SKRG-KMIA
19/08/07 DC8 ULAPO-ANIKO 16:43:00 17:47:00 MROC-KMIA
19/08/07 B763 TILOT-NANDO 16:45:00 16:56:00 MGGT-KMIA
19/08/07 F2TH PENSO-FALLA 16:45:00 17:50:00 KABE-MPTO
19/08/07 A321 PABEL-NAGEL 16:46:00 17:47:00 KIAD-MSLP
19/08/07 B752 SELEK-PELRA 16:46:00 17:38:00 KMIA-MPTO
19/08/07 B752 ULAPO-PENSO 16:46:00 17:47:00 MROC-KDFW
19/08/07 B722 KIRAP-AMIDA 16:48:00 17:00:00 MHLM-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 AVRIS-NOVOG 16:48:00 17:13:00 KIAH-MSLP
19/08/07 B732 PENSO-OMOSO 16:48:00 17:07:00 KIAH-MHTG
19/08/07 A321 RAKEL-SELEK 16:49:00 17:49:00 MNMG-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 FALLA-ULISA 16:49:00 17:39:00 SKSP-MWCR
19/08/07 A319 PABEL-SULMA 16:52:00 17:55:00 KJFK-MSLP
19/08/07 B737 BUFEO-OTAMI 16:54:00 18:00:00 MPTO-MGGT
19/08/07 B732 PELRA-SELEK 16:55:00 17:48:00 SKBO-KEWR
19/08/07 A319 ISEBA-PINDO 16:56:00 17:47:00 MPTO-MMMX
19/08/07 A320 PENSO-PENSO 16:56:00 16:56:00 MZBZ-KIAH
19/08/07 B737 ANIKO-LIBIS 16:58:00 17:42:00 KATL-MNMG
19/08/07 B737 AVRIS-BRITO 17:00:00 17:21:00 KATL-MSLP
19/08/07 B752 PISIS-MELDA 17:00:00 17:28:00 KMIA-MHTG
- 38 -
5.2. Point in time density
It is also possible to determine the FIR traffic at a any point in time. For example, the following table lists
the flights present in the Central American FIR on 19th August 2007 at 16:00.
Aircraft Time of
Date Type Entry-Exit Entry Time of Exit Origin-Destination
19/08/07 A320 ROPOL-PILKO 14:09:00 16:02:00 SVMI-MMMX
19/08/07 B732 RADON-SELEK 15:00:00 16:14:00 MROC-KEWR
19/08/07 A320 NAGEL-PABEL 15:21:00 16:18:00 MSLP-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 SELEK-PIRAS 15:29:00 16:53:00 KEWR-MROC
19/08/07 B732 ABPZA-PENSO 15:32:00 16:27:00 SKBO-KIAH
19/08/07 MD80 TELAX-SELEK 15:32:00 16:13:00 SKCG-KMIA
19/08/07 A300 PELRA-SELEK 15:35:00 16:19:00 SPIM-KMIA
19/08/07 A300 LIXAS-SELEK 15:41:00 18:08:00 SEGU-KMIA
19/08/07 B752 PELRA-SELEK 15:43:00 16:28:00 SEQU-KMIA
19/08/07 B732 PELRA-SELEK 15:45:00 16:32:00 MPTO-KEWR
19/08/07 B752 RELTA-ASOKU 15:47:00 16:09:00 MSLP-KLAX
19/08/07 B763 ALSAL-LIXAS 15:47:00 17:54:00 MMMX-SAEZ
19/08/07 B737 PELRA-SELEK 15:49:00 16:36:00 MPTO-MUHA
19/08/07 B763 SELEK-PELRA 15:51:00 16:42:00 KMIA-SKBO
19/08/07 B732 BUFEO-PENSO 15:57:00 17:17:00 MPTO-KIAH
19/08/07 A319 SELEK-IMOLA 15:58:00 17:21:00 CYYZ-MRLB
——————
- 39 -
APPENDIX B
FORECASTS FOR THE EIGHT AREAS OF ROUTING DEFINED IN

THE GLOBAL AIR NAVIGATION PLAN
The geographical scope of the eight areas of routing (ARs) to, from and within Latin
America/Caribbean, is described below:
AR-1: Buenos Aires ─ Santiago de Chile

Buenos Aires ─ Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro
Santiago de Chile ─ Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ Europe
AR-2: Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ Miami

Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ New York
AR-3: Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ Lima

Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ Los Angeles
Mexico ─ North America
AR-4: Santiago ─ Lima ─ Miami

Buenos Aires ─ New York
Buenos Aires ─ Miami
AR-5: North of South America ─ Europe
AR-6: Mexico ─ Europe

Central America ─ Europe
AR-7: Santiago ─ Lima ─ Los Angeles
AR-8: South America ─ South Africa

Santiago de Chile ─ Easter Island ─ Papeete (PAC)
The methodology adopted for the development of aircraft movement forecasts for AR-1 to AR-8 is
summarized as follows:
1. Analyze historical aircraft movements trends for city-pairs pertaining to AR-1 to AR-
8 using OAG data for the past 10 years.
2. Extract the city-pairs’ forecast growth rates pertaining to AR-1 through AR-8 from
the city-pair forecasts developed for the major route groups shown in Tables 5c)
through 11c).
3. For the city-pairs for which no match is available in the tables mentioned in para. 2
above, apply the growth rates of the traffic category “All Other” from the
corresponding route group in the corresponding table.
It should be noted that city-pairs in these forecasts are extracted from geographical areas
or States defined by the areas of routing AR-1 through AR-8. The traffic shown in terms of aircraft
movements is the true Origin-Destination (OD) traffic using OAG data. Flights which originate and
terminate outside the geographical coverage of these ARs may not be included in these tables. City-pair
traffic appearing in all tables refers to traffic in both directions. For larger route groups, top 25 city-pairs
are shown while the rest are aggregated under the heading “All other routes”.
- 40 -
TABLE B-1
Homogeneous Area of Routing AR-1
- Buenos Aires – Santiago de Chile

- Buenos Aires – Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro
- Santiago de Chile – Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro
-
Rank City Pair Movements/ Movements Growth(Per cent)
2007/ 2027 2007-2027
1 Santiago(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 12185 39079 6.0

2 Sao Paulo(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 11843 37982 6.0
3 Rio De Janeiro(Intl) - Buenos Aires(Pistarini) 5484 33681 9.5
4 Santiago(Intl) - Rio de Janeiro 4979 25453 8.5
5 Santiago(Intl) - Sao Paulo 846 4741 9.0
TOTAL 35337 140936 7.2
- Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro – Europe

Rank City Pair Movements Movements Growth(Per cent)
2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Sao Paulo-Paris 2921 8523 5.5
2 Sao Paulo-London 1665 5867 6.5
3 Rio De Janeiro-Paris 1559 6033 7.0
4 Sao Paulo-Madrid 1543 3721 4.5
5 Sao Paulo-Frankfurt 1521 3668 4.5
6 Sao Paulo-Milan 1284 4969 7.0
7 Rio De Janeiro-Madrid 1112 2213 3.5
8 Sao Paulo-Lisbon 992 2894 5.5
9 Rio De Janeiro-Lisbon 943 3323 6.5
10 Sao Paulo-Johannesburg 878 3094 6.5
11 Santiago-Rio De Janeiro 846 4741 9.0
12 Sao Paulo-Amsterdam 730 1761 4.5
13 Sao Paulo-Munich 726 2118 5.5
14 Zurich-Sao Paulo 676 1221 3.0
15 Rio De Janeiro-Porto 304 593 3.4
16 Sao Paulo-Porto 302 589 3.4
17 Rio De Janeiro-Frankfurt 190 371 3.4
18 Rio De Janeiro-Milan 16 31 3.4
19 Sao Paulo-Rome 2 4 3.4
Total 18210 55734 5.8

- 41 -
TABLE B-2
- Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro – Miami

- Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro – New York

Rank City Pair Movement Movements Growth(Per cent)
2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Rio de Janeiro-Miami 1082 1954 3.0

2 Sao Paulo- new York (Newark) 362 979 5.1
3 Sao Paulo-Miami 3482 6289 3.0
3 Sao Paulo-New York(JFK) 3233 5839 3.0
5 Sao Paulo-new York(Newark) 362 979 5.1
Total 8521 16040 3.2
TABLE B-3
- Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ Lima

- Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro ─ Los Angeles

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Sao Paulo-Lima 2596 15944 9.5

2 Sao Paulo-Los Angeles 182 492 5.1
Total 2778 16436 9.3

- 42 -
TABLE B-3 (Cont.)
- Mexico ─ North America

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Mexico City-Los Angeles 8875 19446 4.0
2 Mexico City-Houston 7948 19168 4.5
3 Los Angeles-Guadalajara 6978 12603 3.0
4 Miami-Mexico City 6517 15717 4.5
5 Monterrey-Houston 6501 17249 5.0
6 Mexico City-Chicago 5041 13375 5.0
7 Mexico City-Dallas/Fort Worth 4998 9027 3.0
8 New York-Mexico City 4914 17315 6.5
9 Miami-Cancun 4298 7763 3.0
10 San Jose Cabo-Los Angeles 4290 11383 5.0
11 Houston-Guadalajara 4274 15060 6.5
12 Dallas/Fort Worth-Cancun 4266 11319 5.0
13 Houston-Cancun 4031 7280 3.0
14 New York-Cancun 3748 10136 5.1
15 Leon/Guanajuato-Houston 3638 9838 5.1
16 Monterrey-Dallas/Fort Worth 3585 9695 5.1
17 Cancun-Atlanta 2614 7069 5.1
18 San Jose Cabo-Dallas/Fort Worth 2582 6982 5.1
19 Puerto Vallarta-Dallas/Fort Worth 2410 6517 5.1
20 San Jose Cabo-Phoenix 2376 6425 5.1
21 San Antonio-Mexico 2330 6301 5.1
22 Puerto Vallarta-Houston 2304 6231 5.1
23 Toronto-Mexico City 2290 6193 5.1
24 San Jose Cabo-Houston 2280 6166 5.1
25 Mexico City-Atlanta 2248 6079 5.1
Total above routes (25) 105336 264339 4.7

All other routes 129218 349444 5.1
TOTAL 234554 613783 4.9

- 43 -
TABLE B-4
- Santiago ─ Lima ─ Miami

- Buenos Aires ─ New York
- Buenos Aires ─ Miami

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Buenos Aires - New York 835 2258 5.1

2 Buenos Aires - Miami 2652 7172 5.1
3 Santiago - Lima 4208 21511 8.5
4 Lima - Miami 2220 6004 5.1
5 Santiago - Miami 1781 4816 5.1
Total 11696 41761 6.6

- 44 -
TABLE B-5
- North of South America ─ Europe

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Madrid - Bogota 1830 7774 7.5
2 Madrid - Caracas 1639 6342 7.0
3 Madrid - Lima 1323 3934 5.6
4 Madrid - Guayaquil 1099 3268 5.6
5 Paramaribo - Amsterdam 754 2242 5.6
6 Paris - Bogota 730 1318 3.0
7 Paris - Caracas 724 2322 6.0
8 Paris(Orly) - Cayenne 719 2782 7.0
9 Frankfurt - Caracas 676 2872 7.5
10 Milan - Caracas 520 1230 4.4
11 Quito - Madrid 519 1228 4.4
12 Lima - Amsterdam 493 1166 4.4
13 Lisbon - Caracas 434 1027 4.4
14 Santa Cruz - Madrid 433 1024 4.4
15 Funchal - Caracas 242 573 4.4
16 Madrid - Cali 227 537 4.4
17 Rome - Caracas 210 497 4.4
18 Porlamar - Frankfurt 209 494 4.4
19 Bogota - Barcelona 157 371 4.4
20 Tenerife - Caracas 110 260 4.4
21 Porto - Caracas 104 246 4.4
22 Porlamar - London 94 222 4.4
23 Bogota - Alicante 52 123 4.4
24 Porlamar - Manchester 48 114 4.4
25 Porlamar - Amsterdam 47 111 4.4
Total above routes 13393 42079 5.9

TOTAL 13451 42216 5.9

- 45 -
TABLE B-6
Mexico ─ Europe

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Mexico City - Madrid 2125 6200 5.5
2 Paris(CDC) - Mexico City 1987 8440 7.5
3 Mexico City - Amsterdam 730 2171 5.6
4 Mexico City - Frankfurt 728 1315 3.0
5 Madrid - Cancun 599 2318 7.0
6 Cancun-Amsterdam 448 1903 7.5
7 Mexico City-London 376 890 4.4
8 Frankfurt-Cancun 318 752 4.4
9 Milan-Cancun 293 693 4.4
10 London-Cancun 282 667 4.4
11 Paris-Cancun 282 667 4.4
12 Monterrey-Madrid 177 419 4.4
13 Manchester-Cancun 163 386 4.4
14 Rome-Cancun 148 350 4.4
15 Munich-Cancun 120 284 4.4
16 Dusseldorf-Cancun 104 246 4.4
17 Glasgow-Cancun 102 241 4.4
18 East Midlands-Cancun 82 194 4.4
19 Puerto Vallarta-Manchester 76 180 4.4
20 London-Cozumel 52 123 4.4
21 Manchester-Huatulco 52 123 4.4
22 Puerto Vallarta-London 50 118 4.4
23 Cancun-Brussels 13 31 4.4
24 Mexico City-Barcelona 10 24 4.4
25 Cancun-Bologna 8 19 4.4
Total above routes 9325 28754 5.8

TOTAL 9339 28787 5.8
- Central America ─ Europe

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 San Jose(Santamaria) - Madrid 722 2147 5.6
2 Panama City - Madrid 320 757 4.4
3 Guatemala City - Madrid 312 738 4.4
4 San Salvador - Milan 10 24 4.4
Total 1364 3666 5.1

- 46 -
TABLE B-7
Santiago ─ Lima ─ Los Angeles

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Santiago - Lima 4208 21511 8.5
2 Los Angeles - Lima 1155 3123 5.1
3 Santiago - Los Angeles 304 822 5.1
Total 5667 25457 7.8
TABLE B-8
- South America ─ South Africa

20072/ 2027 2007-2027
1 Sao Paulo - Johannesburg 878 3094 6.5
2 Buenos Aires - Cape Town 208 406 3.4
Total 1086 3500 6.0
- Santiago de Chile ─ Easter Island ─ Papeete (PAC)

2007 2027 2007-2027
1 Santiago - Easter Island 499 1456 5.5
2 Easter Island - Papeete 209 504 4.5
Total 708 1960 5.2
——————
- 47 -
APPENDIX C
. Definition of the route groups and geographical areas used in the

development of the forecasts by the CAR/SAM TFG
Route Groups
1. South Atlantic
Includes routes between, on the one hand, gateway points in the following South American States:
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), Paraguay and Uruguay and, on the other hand, the
geographical areas of Europe, Middle East and Africa.
2. Mid Atlantic
Includes routes between, on the one hand, gateway points in the geographical areas of Central America and
the Caribbean and/or in the following South American States: Bolivia, Colombia (including the San Andres
Islands), Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela and, on the other hand, the
geographical areas of Europe, Middle East and Africa.
3. Intra-South America
4. Between South America and Central America/Caribbean
5. Intra-Central America/Caribbean
6. Between North America and South America and Central America/Caribbean
Geographical Areas
North America
Bermuda, Canada, St. Pierre et Miquelon, United States including Alaska and Hawaii, but excluding
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Central America / Caribbean
Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Cayman
Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Grenada, Guadeloupe,
Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Mexico, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua,
Panama, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis1, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad
and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands and Virgin Islands of the United States.
South America
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia (including San Andres Islands), Ecuador, Falkland Islands
(Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Middle East
Bahrain, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Syrian Arab Republic, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
- 48 -
Europe
Geographical Europe and Azores, Canary Islands, Cyprus, Greenland, Iceland, Madeira, Malta, Russian
Federation and Turkey.
Africa
The continent of Africa (including Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia) and offshore
islands, but excluding Azores, Canary Islands, Madeira and Malta.
——————
- 49 -
APPENDIX D
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
BRAZIL
Silvia Regina Agrassar Magalhães Tel.: (5521) 2101-6295

Chefe da Seção de Coordenação e Controle ATM Fax: (5521) 2101-6088
Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (DECEA) E-mail: cco1@decea.gov.br
Av. General Justo 160, 2 andar - Centro CEP 20021-
130, Rio de Janeiro, RJ
Perola Kottler Burman

Gerente – GEPQ
Agencia Nacional de Aviação Civil (ANAC) Tel.: (5521) 2510-9314
Av. Almirante Silvio de Noronha, 373 Fax: (5521) 2533-3337
CEP 20021-010 Rio de Janeiro, RJ E-mail: perola.burman@anac.gov.br
Lidia Elaine Garcia De Souza Mello

Economista
Av. Almirante Silvio de Noronha, 373, 4o Andar Fax: (5521) 2533-3337
Centro E-mail: lidia.mello@anac.gov.br
CEP 20021-010 Rio de Janeiro, RJ
Marcial Alexandre Marazzo Da Silva

Estatístico
Centro E-mail: marcial.marazzo@anac.gov.br
Michel Costa Alcantara

Estatístico
Centro E-mail: michel.alcantara@anac.gov.br
CANADA
Winnie Mabaleka Tel.: (613) 993-9654

Forecasting Analyst Fax: (613) 957-3280
Transport Canada E-mail: mabalew@tc.gc.ca
(ACACA) 330 Sparks Street
Place de Ville, Tower C
Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0N5
- 50 -
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
COCESNA
Carlos Antonio Carbajal Perdomo Tel.: (504) 234-3360

ATM Analyst Fax: (504) 234-3360 Ext. 1322
150 mtrs. Al Sur del Aeropuerto Internacional E-mail: ccarbajal@cocesna.org
Toncontín, Tegucigalpa, Honduras,
Centro América
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO)
Chaouki Mustapha Tel.: (514) 954-8219 Ext. 8398

Economist, Forecasting and Economic Planning Fax: (514) 954-6744
ICAO E-mail: cmustapha@icao.int
999 University Street
Montreal, Quebec,
Canada H3C 5H7
Zubair Anwar Tel.: (514) 954-8219 Ext. 6294

Economics Assistant, Forecasting and Economic Fax: (514) 954-6744
Planning E-mail: zanwar@icao.int
Air Transport Bureau
ICAO
999 University Street
Montreal, Quebec,
Canada H3C 5H7
— END —

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Doc 9917

Report of the Seventh Meeting

Rio de Janeiro, 3–7 November 2008

Approved by the CAR/SAM TFG and published

International Civil Aviation Organization

For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents

Doc 9917, Caribbean/South American Regional

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

(Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3–7 November 2008)

2.1 Definitions of Route Groups ............................................................................................ 2

2.2 Air Passenger Forecast Methodology............................................................................... 2

2.3 Aircraft Movements Forecast Methodology..................................................................... 3

3. Historical Trends and Forecast assumptions .................................................................... 4

3.3 Yield Trends and Assumptions ........................................................................................ 7

3.4 Analysis of Load Factors and Capacity............................................................................ 9

4.7 Summary of Major Route Group Forecasts...................................................................... 23

Appendix A: Peak-Period Analysis for Central American FIR .............................................. 25

Appendix B: Forecasts for the Eight Areas of Routing Defined in

Appendix D: List of Participants ............................................................................................ 49

2.1 Definition of Route Groups

2.2 Air Passenger Forecast Methodology

• South Atlantic and Mid Atlantic

LN (Passengers) = Constant + A*LN(GDP) + B*LN(Yield) + Dummy Variables

The calibration produced the following results:

2.3 Aircraft Movement Forecast Methodology

Number of Air Passengers

Number of Air Passengers

3. HISTORICAL TRENDS AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

3.1 Global Trends

3.1.1 Global Economic trends

3.1.2 Global Traffic trends

WORLD ANNUAL GROWTH IN GDP AND AIRLINE TRAFFIC

3.2.1 Data sources

3.2.3 Economic trends and prospects

GDP GROWTH RATES FOR THE REGION’S MAJOR ECONOMIES

GDP Growth Rate (per cent)

Average annual growth rate

3.3 Yields trends and assumptions

DEVELOPMENTS IN AVERAGE PASSENGER YIELDS (1997-2007)

Intra Central America/Caribbean

Intra South America

YIELDS CHANGE ASSUMPTIONS (PER CENT)

Route Groups 2007-2012 2012-2017 2017-2027

3.4 Analysis of Load Factors and Capacity

HISTORICAL LOAD FACTORS (2000-2007)

North America – South & Central

Intra Central America/Caribbean

ANALYSIS OF LOAD FACTORS (PER CENT)

Route Groups Historical Forecast

South Atlantic 77 77.0 83.7 83.7 85.0 85

ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY (AVERAGE AIRCRAFT SEATS)

Route Groups Historical Forecast

South Atlantic 283 281 281 281 281 280

4.1 South Atlantic

Passengers Load Average

Forecast 2012 9.60 83.7 281

Year Aircraft Movements

Historic 2007 30 749*

Forecast 2012 40 805

Total Total Average

1 Madrid-Buenos Aires 3 345 11 787 6.5

Total above routes 27 608 84 073 5.7

TOTAL 30 749 90 252 5.5

LN (Passengers) = Constant + ALN(GDP) + BLN(Yield) + Dummy Variables