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By Mel Dickover
From
XKCD.com
2/17/2015 Copyright February 2015 by Mel Dickover 3
M²M² (Mel’s Model of Market Movement)
• An empirical model of market movement
• Price movement fully explained by
– News driven price impulses
– Cycles
• Empirical evidence from Fourier Analysis Spectrograms
– Support and resistance constraints
• Empirical evidence published in my April 2014 TASC
article titled “Evidence-Based Support and Resistance”
Relation to Nirvana’s
Spectrum indicator
In the ACT module
Two weeks
9 weeks
21 weeks
Take a long cycle, add a intermediate cycle, get head and shoulders, double
tops, channels. Add a third short cycle, consolidations, flags, triangles,
pennants, etc.
All price patterns that we see in a chosen time frame come from adding up
three or four cycles of wavelengths of 10 to 140 in that time frame.
Because this recurs in any time frame we choose, we call the market fractal
2/17/2015 Copyright February 2015 by Mel Dickover 12
The Pipe Organ as market metaphor
Expectations,
Anchoring, and
Confirmation Bias
Sufficient to
explain the cycling
response of the
Market
Emotions are a
result, not a cause
Price chart
Individual cycles
seen clearly
Fourier Analysis of
the spectrum
A time frame
Slope when
trending Small
Big Momentum
Momentum
Amplitude
Exploded view
– Richard P. Feynman
–Ohm