Materials Science and Engineering A 483–484 (2008) 529–532

Statistical properties of creep rupture data

distribution for STS304 stainless steels
Seon-Jin Kim a,∗ , Yu-Sik Kong a , Young-Jin Roh a , Woo-Gon Kim b
a School of Mechanical Engineering, Pukyong National University, San100, Yongdangdong, Namgu, Busan 608-739, Republic of Korea
b Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 150 Duckjindong, Yusunggu, Daejeon 305-353, Republic of Korea

Received 6 June 2006; received in revised form 26 September 2006; accepted 3 December 2006

Abstract
The aim of the work is the investigation of the statistical properties of short-term creep rupture characteristic values in STS304 stainless steels.
From short-term creep rupture tests performed by constant stresses at three different elevated temperatures 600, 650 and 700 ◦ C, the scatter
characteristics of short-term creep rupture data, and the probability distribution characteristics were examined for rupture time, total creep rate,
steady state creep rate and initial strain. The influence of temperature on the statistical scatters (coefficient of variation) of rupture time, initial
strain and total creep rate generally decreased with increasing creep testing temperature. The influence of stress on the statistical scatter (coefficient
of variation) of rupture time was smaller with increasing stresses. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) of short-term creep rupture data
were well followed 2-parameter Weibull distribution.
© 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Creep rupture data; Random variable; Weibull distribution; Statistical scatter; Probability distribution function (PDF)

1. Introduction indicate that the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of

Numerous studies of individual uni-axial tension creep rup-
ture behavior of high-temperature heat-resisting materials have
been reported. However, there are very few about the study on
statistical properties of creep rupture data, statistical modeling
and the scatter characteristics [1–4]. There is a probabilistic
nature to strength, load, geometry, and the mathematical models
of underlying phenomena that has to be identified and described
in order to design to a reliability goal [5]. In many applications,
the creep rupture lifetime of a component far exceeds that of a
practical laboratory test. Thus, the experimental data acquired
in the course of laboratory work must be extrapolated. The long-
term creep rupture lifetime is often estimated as short-term creep
rupture data, and others. Therefore, for development of reliable
creep life prediction method, it is necessary to examine the statis-
tical characteristics of creep rupture data. The authors [6] studied
the probability distribution characteristics for mechanical prop-
erties, e.g. tensile strength, reduction of area, and elongation, for
600 and 700 ◦ C in STS304 stainless steels. The results clearly
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +82 51 620 1608; fax: +82 51 620 1405.
E-mail address: sjkim@pknu.ac.kr (S.-J. Kim).
measured mechanical properties are follows a Weibull and shows
a slight dependence on the temperature.
In this work, creep stress and temperature are treated as deter-
ministic variables and creep rupture time, total creep rate, steady
state creep rate and initial strain (IS) are taken to be random
variables. These random variables are often used in creep fail-
ure prediction at various stresses and temperatures. The goal of
the work is to investigate the statistical nature of elemental prop-
erties such as creep rupture time, total creep rate, steady state
creep rate, and initial strain (IS).
2. Materials and experimental procedures
The material of specimens used in this investigation is
18-8 type of STS304 stainless steels. The chemical composi-
tions (wt.%) are; C-0.02, Si-0.40, Mn-1.83, P-0.029, S-0.009,
Ni-8.13, Cr-18.22, Mo-0.24, Cu-2.06, N-0.102, Fe-bal. The
mechanical properties are; tensile strength 706 MPa, yield
strength 490 MPa, elongation 18.0% for room temperature (RT).
The creep test specimens were fabricated from 20 mm diameter
solid bar according to ASTM E139. For the creep tests at elevated
temperatures of 600, 650, and 700 ◦ C, the SATEC (DLF-10-
1029) high-temperature creep testing machine (50 MN) was

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doi:10.1016/j.msea.2006.12.153
530 S.-J. Kim et al. / Materials Science and Engineering A 483–484 (2008) 529–532
used. Meanwhile, in the creep test, when the specimen was set
into the furnace, the furnace reached the target temperature and
was maintained for 30 min for uniform heating, then the load was
applied at the constant temperature until the fracture occurred.
During the creep test, the elongation was measured by an LVDT.
The creep tests were carried out following ASTM E139 stan-
dard. A set of five specimens used to examine the statistical
creep behavior for each temperature-stress condition. Thirty
conventional creep specimens, from same batches of material
supplied by K company, of 6 mm diameter, 30 mm gauge length
and M12xP1.75 thread were machined from the material and
tested.
3. Experimental results and discussion
Normal creep curves were observed under all testing con-
ditions. Figs. 1–3 provide a diagram of the creep strain, ε (%)
versus time, t (h) for each stress level of 600, 650, and 700 ◦ C,
respectively. There is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the
creep deformation mechanisms differ over the range of stresses
and testing temperature. But, these figures show that there is
large scatter in creep rupture data, such as creep rupture time,
steady state creep rate, total creep rate, and initial strain, etc. As
one of the examples, Fig. 4 shows the variation of the rupture
Fig. 1. Creep curves for 600 ◦ C.
Fig. 2. Creep curves for 650 ◦ C.
times against stress. This scatter seems to decrease for speci-
mens with higher temperature levels. As shown in these figures,
even under these carefully controlled conditions, the observed
normal creep curves are not the same in each creep stress level.
It is evident that there is obviously a variation in creep rupture
data. Therefore, a statistical approach is necessary for reliable
creep life assessment and design.
Table 1 shows the statistical properties of creep rupture data,
obtained for the five specimens tested at each testing temperature
on two different stress levels. Displayed are the mean, standard
deviation, and coefficient of variation [COV]. As shown in the
Table 1, the influence of stress on the statistical scatter (coeffi-
cient of variation) for rupture time was smaller with increasing
stresses at constant testing temperature. But, the results at 650 ◦ C
test condition are some different. It is maybe evident that the nor-
mal creep curves are less scattered as shown in Fig. 2. Larger
number test data are required to clarify the problem. For the creep
rupture times of 600, 650 and 700 ◦ C, the mean coefficient of
variation were obtained 0.1298, 0.1168 and 0.0602, respectively.
Namely, the mean coefficient of variation exhibits low value at
the higher temperature testing. The coefficients of variation of
creep rupture time, initial strain and total creep rate generally
decreased with increasing creep testing temperature, except for
650 ◦ C, as far as this test results concerned for five specimens.
More work and large test data are required to clarify this issue.
Fig. 3. Creep curves for 700 ◦ C.
Fig. 4. Effect of rupture times against stress.
 S.-J. Kim et al. / Materials Science and Engineering A 483–484 (2008) 529–532 531

Table 1
Mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation [COV] for testing matrix at various temperatures and stresses
Temperature [◦ C] Stress σ Statistical properties Rupture time tr [h] (β, η) Initial strain ε0 [%] Total creep rate έT Steady creep rate, έ
[MPa] (β, η) [%/h] (β, η) [%/h] (β, η)

Mean [μ] 57.06 0.3704 0.1111 0.0543

320 Standard deviation [σ] 6.5768 (7.94, 60.28) 0.0877 (3.60, 0.411) 0.0294 (5.05, 0.119) 0.0139 (4.85, 0.058)
COV [σ/μ] 0.1153 0.2367 0.2647 0.2573
600
Mean [μ] 125.6 0.3703 0.0345 0.0179
300 Standard deviation [σ] 18.1101 (6.42, 134.15) 0.1021 (3.27, 0.413) 0.0079 (3.40, 0.038) 0.0045 (4.93, 0.19)
COV [σ/μ] 0.1442 0.2757 0.2311 0.2485
Mean [μ] 33.0 0.2518 0.3703 0.1808
260 Standard deviation [σ] 4.9295 (7.11, 34.99) 0.0544 (4.58, 0.274) 0.1132 (3.27, 0.411) 0.0406 (3.92, 0.199)
COV [σ/μ] 0.1494 0.2161 0.3058 0.2248
650
Mean [μ] 142.7 0.3037 0.0595 0.0279
240 Standard deviation [σ] 12.0149 (11.81, 148.25) 0.0718 (3.73, 0.336) 0.0114 (5.61, 0.064) 0.0016 (11.67, 0.029)
COV [σ/μ] 0.0842 0.2364 0.1909 0.0562
Mean [μ] 87.7 0.1926 0.1107 0.0490
180 Standard deviation [σ] 3.6551 (22.32, 89.57) 0.0363 (5.40, 0.207) 0.0136 (7.34, 0.117) 0.0110 (4.17, 0.054)
COV [σ/μ] 0.0417 0.1885 0.1232 0.2252
700
Mean [μ] 176.1 0.1481 0.0440 0.0148
160 Standard deviation [σ] 13.8316 (11.93, 182.89) 0.0331 (4.41, 0.1614) 0.0064 (6.61, 0.047) 0.0027 (6.12, 0.016)
COV [σ/μ] 0.0786 0.2235 0.1453 0.1823

Fig. 5. Weibull plots of rupture time for temperature. Fig. 6. The density function for temperature.

The statistical data of creep rupture characteristic parameters
revealed that the coefficient of variation of initial strain, total
creep rate, and steady state creep rate was two to three times
higher than that of the creep rupture time.
The PDF and the scatter characteristics of the creep rupture
data, such as creep rupture time, steady state creep rate, total
creep rate, and initial strain obtained from the experimental data
are examined. To estimate the scatter characteristics quantita-
tively, the distribution properties for each creep data must be
analyzed. The normal, log-normal and Weibull distribution stud-
ies for each creep data were performed. The Weibull distribution
[7] was best supported by the random variables. In this work,
the 2-parameter Weibull distribution is a suitable way to analyze
such a creep rupture data. One of the examples of 2-parameter
Weibull plots for the result data is shown in Figs. 5 and 6.
The parameter β and η are estimated by maximum likelihood
method. The estimated β and η for testing matrix are shown
in the above Table 1. The mean Weibull shape parameter values
obtained 7.2, 9.5, and 17.1 for 600, 650 and 700 ◦ C, respectively.
The mean Weibull shape parameter, β, of creep rupture time was
increased with temperature. The PDF of the creep rupture test
data seems to follow well Weibull and showed a dependence on
the temperature and stress level. It can be said that the creep
rupture data follow 2-parameter Weibull distribution. For the
statistical modeling of creep rupture data, more work is required.
4. Conclusion
(i) There are considerable scatters in creep rupture data. The
coefficient of variation of initial strain, total creep rate, and
532 S.-J. Kim et al. / Materials Science and Engineering A 483–484 (2008) 529–532
steady state creep rate shows two to three times higher than
that of the creep rupture time, as far as this experimental
work concerned.
(ii) The PDF of creep rupture time follows 2-parameter
Weibull. The mean Weibull shape parameter, β, is increased
by increasing the temperature.
(iii) The PDF of creep rupture data seems to follow well Weibull
and show a dependence on the temperature and applied
stress.
(iv) The presented approach provides background necessary
for the statistical modeling of creep rupture data, and for
making long-term creep failure predictions concerning the
reliability.
Acknowledgment
This work was supported by Pukyong National University
Research Fund in 2005 (PK-2005-061).
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